000
FXUS65 KLKN 160900
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT MON MAR 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY RESULTING
IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP
CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN NV ASSOCIATED
WITH A PACIFIC STORM PUSHING ACROSS THE PAC NW. RADAR SHOWS NO
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH NO PRECIP REPORTS ACROSS THE NORTH AS
WELL. MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH PRECIP COVERAGE
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...SO LOWERED POP FOR THIS
MORNING UNDER 20 PCT. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPT OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY WHICH CONTINUES TO
REPORT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. WINDS WERE AT WIND ADV CRITERIA ON
SUNDAY ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY...AND WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR SW WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55
MPH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 700 MB WINDS APPROACHING 60
KTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG AS LAST NIGHTS 00Z GFS RUN...BUT STRONG ENOUGH WITH A DEEP
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARRANT A WIND ADV. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY
THE MIDSLOPES AND A FEW OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES ACROSS NW
HUMBOLDT COUNTY...WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD...JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. KEPT ELKO AND NRN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY
FOR NOW SINCE WINDS AT THESE LOCATIONS DID NOT GET AS HIGH AS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT LOCALIZED WIND PRONE AREAS ACROSS NRN ELKO
COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ALSO. KEPT BLOWING DUST
IN THE FORECAST TODAY DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS...REDUCING VIS TO 2 TO 5 MILES AT TIMES. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
5 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. KEPT POP AS IS TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH SCT VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED NORTH OF I80. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME LLVL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE WIDELY SCT SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF I80 AS WELL. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF I80 ALONG THE OREGON AND IDAHO BORDER.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST
INTO THE PAC NW AND WRN CANADA TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDING WINDS FOR
TUESDAY. LOWERED POP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD SWLY FLOW AHEAD
OF ERN PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. OVER THE WEEKEND BIG
TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS ABOUT 24 HRS FASTER AND
WOULD BRING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WAITS UNTIL SUNDAY. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AGREE WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF SO WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THAT SOLUTION AS FAR AS TIMING GOES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A
RATHER VIGOROUS SYSTEM WITH QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE ALONG WITH VERY COLD AIR...WITH 700 MB TEMPS AS COLD
AS -16C. IF THIS PANS OUT COULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER THE GFS IS NOT AS STRONG OR MOIST WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY ABOUT HALF THAT OF THE ECMWF BUT IS ALMOST AS COLD
AS THE ECMWF SHOWING 700 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -14C.
&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL BRING STRONG
SWLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE...BUT MAY EXCEED
35 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT KWMC AND KEKO. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3-5SM AT TIMES
ACROSS NRN NV.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM PDT MONDAY FOR NVZ030.

&&

$$

95/91/91

000
FXUS65 KLKN 152251
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
351 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...AND WINDY CONDITIONS
MONDAY...TO NORTHERN NEVADA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. BLOWING DUST
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLE
NEXT SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT 500MB STRONG WSW FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH A 150KT JET OVER
OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THIS JET...WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ...WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY
WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY ON THE MILD SIDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 60...WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER.

PRIMARY CONCERN THIS FCST PACKAGE IS SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA ON MONDAY. THEY ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE THEY
WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TODAY AND EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NV. STRONGEST WINDS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE ACROSS HUMBOLDT
AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTIES. GUSTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST
HUMBOLDT COUNTY WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 50 MPH LOCALLY. HOWEVER...STILL
NOT CONVINCED THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE VALLEYS. SOUTHWEST WIND ASPECT WILL LIFT DUST FROM CARSON
AND HUMBOLDT SINKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. REA

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERAL AGREEMENT TO
START AS RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP IT MOSTLY DRY AND MILD ACROSS MOST OF
NEVADA. MODELS SHOW SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SO IT MAY NOT BE ESPECIALLY CLEAR...HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WON`T BE THICK ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
SOLAR INSOLATION. THUS KEPT A GENERAL PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE
FORECAST. BUMPED UP HIGHS A BIT FRIDAY AS IT LOOKS PLENTY
WARM...CURRENT NUMBERS IN THE GRIDS ARE BETTER BUT WE STILL MAY NOT
BE WARM ENOUGH AND SOME VALLEYS MAY GET NEAR 70.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AND GFS...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING. BOTH
MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DIGGING ACROSS THE
CWA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND BRINGING A RETURN OF
COLDER AIR...WHICH WOULD GENERALLY MEAN A RAIN TO SNOW SCENARIO IN
MOST VALLEYS. HOWEVER...GFS IS NEARLY 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO WHERE THE GFS BRINGS COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW COMPROMISED BY KEEPING POPS MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND REDUCING HIGHS ON SATURDAY. NORMALLY
WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT ECMWF TO BE RIGHT...BUT RECENT POOR
PERFORMANCE IN THIS TIME RANGE SUGGESTS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY FOR
COMPROMISE AT THIS TIME. RCM

.AVIATION...SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WILL KEEP STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...THEN RETURN TOMORROW WITH PERHAPS
EVEN GREATER INTENSITY. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE...BUT MAY EXCEED 35 KNOTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KWMC AND KEKO. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ON CIGS OR VSBYS. RCM
&&


.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

90/93/93

000
FXUS65 KLKN 150900
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES EAST NORTH OF NV ACROSS THE PAC NW. KLRX RADAR SHOWS SOME
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS NRN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES...BUT DOUBTFUL
THIS PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS BEING
REPORTED AT THE SURFACE AS ASOS STATIONS REPORT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TEENS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH MAYBE AN ISOLD RAIN SHOWER OR
TWO ALONG THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS WHICH WILL IMPACT
THE PACIFIC NW EARLY THIS WEEK.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING MOST OF THE ENERGY AND THE MAIN
COLD FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF NV THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHC FOR
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS HUMBOLDT
AND ELKO COUNTIES AS THE COLD FRONT CLIPS XTRM NRN NV...WITH NO
PRECIP ACROSS CNTRL NV. KEPT POP AROUND 50 PCT ALONG THE OREGON
AND IDAHO BORDERS...WITH A POP AROUND 15 PCT ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME SNOW
ABOVE 6500. THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
WINDY CONDITIONS...STARTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN NV. WITH A
STRONG JET ALOFT...AND 700 MB WINDS APPROACHING 50 KTS ACROSS
HUMBOLDT COUNTY STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT 20 TO 30 MPH
SUSTAINED SW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH IN THE VALLEYS ACROSS
HUMBOLDT AND NRN ELKO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH 10 TO 25 MPH
WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WHERE A
HIGH WIND WATCH OR WIND ADV MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTH. ALONG
WITH 700 MB WINDS APPROACHING 65 KTS...MODELS SHOW A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS SINCE THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MIXING LAYER
EXTENDING AS HIGH AS 650 MB OVER PORTIONS OF NRN NV...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH A DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF NV. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT ABOUT
THESE HIGH WIND GUSTS HOWEVER WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING AMPLE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NORTH...WHICH MAY PREVENT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING. FOR NOW...WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH WINDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ISSUING POSSIBLE HEADLINES FOR MONDAY.
ADDED BLOWING DUST IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY DUE TO HIGH WINDS
AND RECENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN NV. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BRUSH FAR NRN
NV FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MTN SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS IS MORE MOIST
WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN EITHER THE ECMWF OR DGEX AND WOULD INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY
FORECAST IN PLACE DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. MAJOR UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATING
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER NWRN NV BY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF NEVADA WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN
NV...MAINLY NORTH OF THE KWMC AND KEKO TERMINALS.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

95/91/91

000
FXUS65 KLKN 142116
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
216 PM PDT SAT MAR 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRUSH NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT 500MB A SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO THE NORTH. FLOW WILL BECOME NEARLY ZONAL BEHIND THIS WAVE...WITH
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP. A STRONG ZONAL FLOW...STRONGEST NORTH...
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
DUE TO UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS THE PAC NW FROM A 155KT JET. THIS JET
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LIFT FURTHER NORTH TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY
WILL SEE WINDY CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTIES...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS. MONDAY WILL SEE WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...WITH A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF REACHING ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. REA

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INTO LATE WEEK WITH ZONAL
FLOW BREAKING DOWN BY THU AND RIDGE BUILDING OVER NV.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY REMNANTS OF LAST SIGNIFICANT S/WV IN
ZONAL FLOW WILL BRUSH ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN NV. COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. WINDS SHOULD DROP
DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH LESS WIND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS NORTH OF STATE.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WEAK PACIFIC TROF SPLITS UNDER RIDGE AND
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN LATE THU AND FRIDAY WITH MODELS
AGREEING WELL ON THE 12Z RUN. LI GETS LOW ENOUGH TO WATCH FOR
LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NV THU AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...LEFT
POPS LOW BUT RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV THU AND FRI WITH
THIS FEATURE IN MIND. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH DYNAMICS
FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST...AND EXACT TRACK OF
S/WV IS IN QUESTION AS IT MAY SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PROGGED BY
MODELS. TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS...BUT PRESENCE OF
CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD DOWN DAYTIME TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH A PREFERENCE TOWARD
THE ECMWF AND A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GFS RUN. RIDGE WILL PEAK IN
STRENGTH SATURDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE...THEN A STRONGER TROF MOVES INLAND LATE SATURDAY. KBB.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. LOCAL CEILINGS BETWEEN 5000 AND 10000
FT AGL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN NV LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW NV THRU THIS EVE...THEN
RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER. KBB.
&&


.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

90/85/85

000
FXUS65 KLKN 140909
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
209 AM PDT SAT MAR 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRUSH NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING MIDWEEK RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE COAST OF
WRN CANADA BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRUSH NRN NV. THE
FIRST IN THESE SERIES OF SHORT WAVE WILL BRUSH NRN NV TONIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL WAVES IMPACTING THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 80 NWD WITH
POPS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 PCT NEAR INTERSTATE 80 TO 25 TO 30 PCT
ALONG THE NRN BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 5500 FEET
AT NIGHT TO 6500 FEET DURING THE DAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH DURING ANY 12
HR PERIOD. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE WIND. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FIRST SHORT
WAVE WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A
DEEP SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY. 700 MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 KTS
BY SUNDAY AFTN. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NRN NV SUNDAY
AFTN IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS THIS HIGH. FOR NOW WILL
HIGHLIGHT WINDS IN A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND LET LATER SHIFT
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT POSSIBILITY OF AN ADVISORY. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK SHOWING ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NV.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A
STRONG 140KT JET STREAM PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW. GFS...ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MOST OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING NORTH OF NV...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT WDLY SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NRN NV MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES SE ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKENS. KEPT POP AROUND 20
PCT ALONG I80 MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH POP AROUND 35
PCT IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH TEMP
WARMING INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL NV THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGS ACROSS SOME OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NRN NYE COUNTY.  LOWS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
COOL AND GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS SHOW BACKING WINDS ALOFT AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC OCEAN. AS A RESULT...TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FURTHER WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S OVER
MOST OF THE AREA AND EVEN LOW 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF NRN NYE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY FRIDAY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
INCREASING HIGH TO MIDLEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/95/95

000
FXUS65 KLKN 132300
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
400 PM PDT FRI MAR 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT MILD WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE FCST
AREA TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY THRU MONDAY...AS A 150KT JET PASSES
THROUGH OREGON AND IDAHO. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SUNDAY BEING A MIX EXCEPT SNOW NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.
PRECIP TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE RAIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NORTH...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...WILL
BE LOW...AND QPF IN GENERAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW AND
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. REA

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE JET MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER NEVADA. WITH THE JET
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE NEVADA/IDAHO BORDER...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PUSHING THE JET FROM THE PAC NW INTO CANADA
FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...AND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA AND AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER CENTRAL NEVADA.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

90/96/96