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07 July 2008
America.gov Election Experts Discuss the 2008 Presidential Race
Ask America webchat transcript, July 1
America.gov election experts Michelle Austein and George Burkes answered questions July 1 in their regular monthly Ask America webchat on the 2008 U.S. presidential campaign.
Following is the transcript:
(begin transcript)
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Bureau of International Information Programs
Ask America Webchat Transcript
U.S. Elections 2008
Guests: Michelle Austein & George Burkes
Date: July 1, 2008
Time: 9 a.m. EDT (13:00 GMT)
Webchat Moderator: Welcome to our latest Ask America.gov Elections 2008 webchat!
Wondering about how delegates are counted or how the Electoral College works? Curious where the presidential candidates stand on issues that impact your country? Join America.gov's elections experts Michelle Austein and George Burkes on the first Tuesday of every month to discuss the people, processes and issues that shape the U.S. presidential race. They will answer your questions and talk about the latest events on the 2008 campaign trail.
Like or don't like what you see on America.gov's 2008 Elections Web page? Readers' questions and comments will shape America.gov's elections coverage, so now it is your turn to tell the experts what elections topics you care about.
Welcome to our webchat! We are taking your questions now and we will be getting started in just a few moments. If you have more than one question, please submit each one separately.
Michelle Austein: Hello and welcome to our monthly U.S. Elections Web chat! Now that the primaries are finally over, the general election campaign has begun. Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are traveling across the country, sharing their views and proposals on the issues that matter most to Americans. Over the past week, speeches about the economy, gas prices and the environment have dominated the campaign trail. The candidates have also been talking about their proposals for dealing with immigration, terrorism and other topics. It has been a busy campaign season, and will probably continue to be busy until November 4, Election Day.
George and I will do our best to answer all of your questions. Also, we’re excited to announce that we have a newly-designed U.S. Elections Blog. It allows you to post your own thoughts and opinions about the events shaping the U.S. presidential campaign.
Webchat Moderator: If you are just joining us, welcome! We see your questions coming in. Thank you.
Question [fabrice kanga]: What may be the key to win this election?
Michelle Austein: That is an excellent question. Polls indicate that the key issue, by a huge margin, is the economy. Americans are concerned about gas prices, about food prices, about their job security, about the cost of health insurance and other economic issues. The winning candidate will likely have persuaded Americans that he is prepared to tackle these tough economic tasks. But it will take more than this to win. Americans like to feel that their president is trustworthy, responsible and has good character. The winning candidate will likely have also persuaded Americans that he is ready to handle challenges while taking Americans’ best interests at heart.
There is one more key to winning this election we should mention – swing states. With the Electoral College, candidates focus their efforts on winning the states that are so evenly divided in their political allegiances that statewide support switches from one party to another. In 2008, these states are likely to include New Mexico, Ohio, Minnesota, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia just to name a few. The candidates will spend a lot of time visiting these states. Here is a good article explaining this: “Electoral College System Affects U.S. Campaign Strategies.”
Izy 2: Can we say the success of this American campaign is mostly due to the development of internet and mass media in the US?
Michelle Austein: A very interesting question – there is no doubt that the Internet and other media developments have revolutionized the way American candidates run for office. They can fundraise, organize and recruit new voters quicker and more efficiently than ever before. In particular, Barack Obama has had major successes using the Internet to recruit new donors, which has helped him raise record amounts of money.
Both candidates have excellent Web sites: www.johnmccain.com and www.barackobama.com.
Webchat Moderator: Welcome to those of you just joining us! Our speakers are reviewing and answering your many questions.
naty noel: naty noel (new world vision) Does the government contribute to the financing of the presidential campaign?
Michelle Austein: The United States has a system of providing taxpayer funds for those presidential candidates who would like to use them. This year, both candidates are eligible to receive $84 million, but if they take that money, they can not spend any more than that. Barack Obama has opted not to take the money. It looks like McCain likely will, but that is not definite yet. This article explains public financing: “Public Financing Helps Fuel U.S. Presidential Campaigns.”
This article explains why Obama chose not to take the public financing money: “Democrat Barack Obama Opts Out of Public Financing.”
Izy 2: What are the different candidates doing to win the community living outside the country?
Michelle Austein: Democrats Abroad and Republicans Abroad will be organizing activities such as rallies and fundraisers for their candidates. Both presidential candidates are heading overseas soon and will likely meet Americans in those countries. McCain is heading to Colombia and Mexico. Obama is visiting Germany, France, Great Britain, Israel and Jordan. These trips are not just for visiting Americans, but for showing Americans and the world that they are ready to address complex issues on an international stage.
fabrice kanga: (yedagne Agnero) Is being a good speaker one of keys to convince voters ?
Michelle Austein: Being able to connect with voters is very important – Americans want to feel comfortable with their president for many reasons, one of which is the fact that they are essentially welcoming this person into their living room televisions for the next four years. Being able to speak well does help a candidate connect with voters. But being able to demonstrate knowledge and political solutions is important as well.
Izy 2: What are the candidates’ policies for Iraq?
Michelle Austein: Obama says beginning the withdrawal of troops from Iraq is one of the first things he would do as president. His goal is to have combat brigades out of Iraq in 16 months. McCain was supportive of President Bush’s surge plan and recently said he envisions troops leaving Iraq by 2013. You can learn more about the candidates’ positions on Iraq here: “Candidates on the Issues -- Iraq.”
okei guy: Okei guy from Abidjan: Do the Democrats and the Republicans have different views on the issue of Iraq war and can it be the main point to win this election ?
Michelle Austein: Iraq is still an important issue to Americans, as is the situation in Afghanistan. But all indications now point to the economy being the biggest issue in this election.
naty noel: naty noel (new world vision) In America who are the voters?
Michelle Austein: Anyone 18 years old or older, with the exception of some felons, has the right to vote.
Melissa - European Parliament staff: I am greatly interested in a discussion of the Presidential candidates positions on Europe and NATO, and how they would work with the EU in terms of international security and defense. With domestic concerns and international crises, Europe seems to not be a major issue for the 2008 campaign. Could you predict how Senators Obama and McCain would respond to increased European efforts to bolster the European security and defense policy. (Which will likely go ahead regardless of the outcome of the Lisbon Treaty)
Michelle Austein: NATO and the EU have not been prominent topics on the campaign trail, although that can change, and this is primarily because interests in the economy and terrorism are overshadowing many other topics at the moment. But this could change, and it is likely Obama will discuss European relations when he visits Western Europe soon. Both candidates have stressed the importance of working with our allies, which includes NATO and the EU. McCain supports NATO expansion to include former Soviet countries like Georgia. Obama has said that a stable and prosperous Europe is vital to American interests.
fabrice kanga: (yedagne Agnero) In the history of America, has an independent candidate ever won the presidential question?
Michelle Austein: Since the Republican and Democratic parties became prominent in the mid 19th century, no third party candidate has won the election. But some have had major impacts on presidential races. Here is a good article about that: “Many Political Parties Shape U.S. Political Agenda.”
fabrice kanga: (Yedagne Agnero) Voters have to fill out paperwork before casting their ballots. How is it possible for the illiterate to vote?
Michelle Austein: Great question! The United States has provisions for helping the illiterate and disabled vote. In some states there are even special machines to help blind people vote privately. An illiterate person can receive help both filling out his or her voter registration material and casting his or her ballot.
Izy 2: How far are women voters involved in the electoral process in the US today?
Michelle Austein: Women play a role in just about every step of the electoral process. Women were granted the right to vote in 1920, and since then have voted in large numbers- many election years more women than men vote. Candidates will spend a great deal of time courting female votes, making sure their concerns are considered. Women of course also run for office and serve as elected leaders across the country.
gervais coulibaly: Don't you think that we’re going to have the same problem concerning results in 2004?
Michelle Austein: Good question – in 2004, there were some problems counting results in Ohio, as well as a few sporadic problems in other areas. The good news is that the 2008 primaries for the most part were extremely smooth, with few reported problems. The long primary season, with high voter turnout, has helped poll workers test their new machines with large numbers of voters and figure out what works and doesn’t work well. It also allowed states’ boards of electors practice their results’ reporting experiences. Indications are that the 2008 elections should run relatively smoothly.
okei guy: Okei guy from Abidjan: Do you think that the question of racism can have an impact on this election ?
Michelle Austein: This is a question a lot of people are asking these days, as Obama is the first African-American nominee of a major political party. Most Americans are very excited about this, and many voters are proud that they played a role in this historic moment. However, political experts do believe race will play somewhat of a role in this contest. This article does a great job of examining the complexities of this issue: “Race Relations a Factor in 2008 Presidential Election.”
okei guy: Nicaise Djue from Abidjan: According to you who of the both candidates is well seen by Americans at this moment?
Michelle Austein: Both candidates are popular among certain constituencies. National polls at the moment show Obama is favored from anywhere between 4 and 12 percentage points. But we can not stress enough this important fact – national polls are not always indicative of who will win the election! First of all, the election is still months away. But more importantly, the Electoral College decides the presidency, not the popular vote. This article explains the Electoral College: “The Electoral College.”
The Electoral College is one of those institutions Americans like to debate about. Here is a good article examining the plusses and minuses of using this system: “Has the Electoral College Outlived Its Usefulness?”
Sanjay Mehta: Another question if I may: President Bill Clinton has reportedly been still bitter with Senator Obama. How is this going to affect Obama's prospect, particularly when American will see this as divided party?
Michelle Austein: Democrats are worried that a divided party will hurt their chances. Hillary Clinton has made it clear she intends to help Obama campaign, and yesterday it was reported that Bill Clinton and Obama spoke with each other. Many Democrats are now more hopeful that their party will come together as the Clinton’s support Obama.
fabrice kanga: Is the support of Hillary Clinton essential for Barrack?
Michelle Austein: Hillary Clinton received about 18 million votes in the primaries, so both candidates believe it is important to win over some of those voters. Clinton’s success was highest among Hispanics, older Americans and working-class whites.
naty noel: Who is John McCain?
Michelle Austein: We have a great web site which has biographies of both candidates: “Meet the 2008 Presidential Candidates.”
fabrice kanga: Was Hillary Clinton obliged to unite with Barrack Obama after her defeat?
Michelle Austein: A great question – there is a long tradition in American politics of political rivals uniting after their contest. It is fairly typical that opponents from the same party will help out the presidential-nominee. This is the case on the Republican as well. Former presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani have been promoting John McCain.
naty noel: NGUESSAN FRANCOIS(U.COCODY): Do you think that democracy is really practiced in USA concerning the presidential election?
Michelle Austein: Also a great question! Most Americans are satisfied with their electoral system and fully believe that their vote is cast free and fairly. Most believe that their vote counts, and the election in 2000 as well as the close Democratic primary contest in 2008 helped Americans understand just how every vote can make a difference.
okei guy: How much both candidates are concerned about Africa?
Michelle Austein: Africa has not been a prominent topic on the campaign trail, although both candidates have a group of experts that will help shape their Africa policies. McCain has long been an advocate of promoting democracy in Africa. Obama says he wants to fight global poverty, and it is likely African nations will be included in that fight. Both candidates have had things to say about the current situation in Zimbabwe: Obama says “the international community should pursue an enforceable, negotiated political transition in Zimbabwe that would end repressive rule and enable genuine democracy.” McCain says “the international community must act to impose sanctions against Mugabe and his cronies and thereby hasten the end of that regime.”
Izy 2: In the history of America, have we ever faced some disagreements about the election results?
Michelle Austein: Americans elect thousands of elected officials at all levels of government, so of course, there have been disputes in election results. Most notably is the 2000 presidential race, where a recount in Florida went on for weeks before the U.S. Supreme Court weighed in. But recounts happen routinely in governors’ races or mayoral races or many other races. Most states have laws governing how these disagreements will be dealt with, and Americans are generally accepting of the final results.
fabrice kanga: Do the September 11 terrorist attacks have an impact on the 2008 presidential election?
Michelle Austein: Absolutely – September 11 changed the way Americans think about terrorism and international relations, and how the candidates would deal with terrorism is important to American voters. But while terrorism and the war in Iraq were voters’ top concerns in 2004, this year it seems terrorism is less of an issue. This is primarily because when Americans are concerned about their finances, as they are this year, economy is the dominant issue. This article examines why this is the case: “Voters, Candidates Shifting Their Attention to Economic Issues.”
jj: Will there be a third party spoiler again? Maybe on Republican’s side?
Michelle Austein: There is some concern that former Republican Congressman Bob Barr, a libertarian candidate for president, could take votes away from John McCain, but it’s really too soon to tell if he could play the role of a spoiler, as many Democrats argue Ralph Nader did in 2000.
Izy 2: As a black candidate, does the black community see Hope in Barack Obama?
Michelle Austein: “Hope” is a word Obama uses a lot on the campaign trail. African Americans overwhelming supported Obama in the primaries (in some states more than 90 percent of African Americans voted for him.) So it is likely many do see “hope” in him. But he has support among other groups as well. His other strongest group of support comes from young people.
okei guy: Do both candidates have a special policy about immigration?
Michelle Austein: Immigration is a topic both candidates discussed on the campaign trail last week. In speeches, McCain stressed the importance of securing the U.S.-Mexico border, while Obama discussed the importance of developing pathways to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Here is more on their immigration views: “Candidates on the Issues -- Immigration.”
Assoba Georges (AAF) 3: Will the involvement of the different wives of the two candidates be impactful in their being elected?
Michelle Austein: This is a question Americans ask a lot too! Although they are not running for office, wives do often play an influential role in the election. Just as Americans like to make sure their president has good character, they are often looking for good character from the potential first ladies. Both Cindy McCain and Michelle Obama have been quite visible on the campaign trail, so Americans will have opportunities to learn more about them.
Assoba Georges (AAF) 3 (SIDIBE SIAKA from Abidjan): Why the process during the electoral campaign is so complicated and sometimes confusing?
Michelle Austein: The system of electing U.S. leaders has evolved over its more than 200-year history. Many of its institutions, like the Electoral College, were developed in a much, much different era. With the invention of trains, planes, televisions, radios, the Internet and more, campaign styles have evolved. We hope you’ll be reassured to know that Americans often find electoral campaigns complicated too. We are doing our best to explain these complicated issues on our U.S. Elections Web site. Check it out!
Sanjay Mehta: Louisiana is considered as the state leaning towards the Republican. Will reported dismay over President Bush's handling of Hurricane Katrina shift that balance towards the Democats?
Michelle Austein: Wow – someone knows their politics well. Louisiana has indeed trended Republican in recent years – but they did just elect a Democratic Congressman, in a district that usually votes Republican. So that could spell trouble for Republicans there. On the other hand, the state’s Democratic Senator is facing a tough re-election fight. This article examines Congressional elections, and shows that Republicans face tough battles in many states: “Democrats Poised to Make Big Gains in Congress, Experts Say.”
naty noel: nguessan francois(AMEYA YAMOUSSOUKRO) DO YOU HOPE TO BE A CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN AMERICA ONE DAY?
Michelle Austein: What a great question to end this chat with! Do we want to be candidates for president? Probably not – we already have great jobs here at America.gov! Although conducting these webchats would be good preparation for conducting a campaign, as our participants today have asked many smart – and tough – questions.
In fact, you have asked so many great questions we just didn’t have time to answer them all! But we can continue this discussion on America.gov’s new blog, Campaign Trail Talk. Keep checking this web page, as we will answer post answers to some of your questions on it in the coming days. If you have more questions, feel free to submit them on the blog, in the comments field.
Hope you’ll join us for our next chat on August 5. Thanks to everyone for participating!
Webchat Moderator: We wish to thank Michelle Austein and George Burkes for joining us today. The webchat is now closed. A full transcript of today's webchat will be published (usually within one business day) to our Ask America homepage.
(Guests are chosen for their expertise and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Department of State.)
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