SPC MCD 101343
VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-101545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0843 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN NY AND VT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101343Z - 101545Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM NERN PA...CNTRL/ERN NY
AND VERMONT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

THIS MORNING AN ONGOING LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS ACROSS WRN NY SWD
THROUGH N CNTRL PA MOVING EAST AT 30 TO 35 KT. THE 12Z RAOB DATA
FROM ALBANY INDICATE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70
BENEATH 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
ALREADY IN PLACE. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO AOA 2500
J/KG. DEEP LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT
WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WITH 30-40 KT BULK SHEAR. ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
LINE SEGMENTS...BOWING STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME LIKELY.

..DIAL.. 06/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
43327260 41777430 41387713 43067758 43377651 44887481
44837210
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101554
SPC MCD 101554
MTZ000-101700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101554Z - 101700Z
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL MT. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS REDEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN MT THIS
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT...WITH STRONGER STORMS LOCATED INVOF
JEFFERSON AND SILVER BOW COUNTIES. CLEAR SLOT OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 TO
1000 J/KG. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY
NEAR 40 TO 50 KTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF MT...SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLD DMGG
WINDS. ATTM A WATCH APPEARS UNLIKELY...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.


..HURLBUT.. 06/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO...
45811066 44941121 44891255 45761287 46801275 47101224
47381143 47431055 47120964 46350979
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101626
SPC MCD 101626
ALZ000-101730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ALABAMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101626Z - 101730Z
INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER ALABAMA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD DMGG WIND IS POSSIBLE. A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

ROUGHLY SW TO NE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD
ACROSS AL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD AND COOLING TOPS OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG AND FORCED
ASCENT ALONG OUTFLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/ISOLD
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. GIVEN
ISOLD NATURE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

..HURLBUT.. 06/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...
31348656 30988766 31578831 32548722 33818705 34698607
33668535 31428640
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101634
SPC MCD 101634
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-101800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MA...NH...ME
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101634Z - 101800Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A
WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 18Z.

STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IS PROMOTING DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S AND 90S. THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE ALREADY FROM 2000 TO 2500
J/KG OVER NH AND WRN ME. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CONTINUES TO
INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. OTHER
STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THIS REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL LIKELY UNDERGO
SOME INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NEW ENGLAND.
BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING MULTICELL BOWING SEGMENTS AS WELL AS SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 06/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...
46036877 45016862 43817034 43247080 42777102 42117156
42237220 43007239 44257191 46176972
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101725
SPC MCD 101725
PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-101900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WV...WRN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101725Z - 101900Z
STORMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS NRN AND ERN OH WITH SWD DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT POSE A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN THROUGH SWRN OH
INTO WRN KY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXISTS AHEAD OF FRONT FROM NE
THROUGH S CNTRL OH. THE PRIMARY MOIST AXIS WITH RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EXISTS EAST OF THIS AREA...BUT DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO WEAKER THAN FARTHER
EAST...AND THESE FACTORS ARE RESULTING IN WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT IN OH...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO WRN PA.
OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITHIN ZONE OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING
ACROSS WV. DESPITE THE MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THAN
FARTHER EAST...STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH DEEP
SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
GIVEN POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS...WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS.


..DIAL.. 06/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
41777823 40937844 39937902 38237992 37298119 37958246
39468199 41498041 42177881
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101811
SPC MCD 101811
TXZ000-101915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1307
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX COASTAL AREAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101811Z - 101915Z
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS OF SERN TX. ADDITIONALLY...A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT REMAINS OVER FAR SERN TX AS A SLOW MOVING MCS
PROPAGATES SWD.

MCS HAS VERY SLOWLY CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE SWD IN WEAK NLY STEERING
FLOW. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CLEARLY SEEN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL STORMS AHEAD OF THE MCS. SECOND
BOUNDARY...A SEA BREEZE...NOW SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND INTERCEPT LEADING EDGE/OUTFLOW OF
MCS...CREATING FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE FOR LOCALLY STRONG UPDRAFTS.
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH SBCAPE NEAR 3000 TO 3500 J/KG WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SWD WITH THE MAIN MCS PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING.


..HURLBUT.. 06/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...
29449445 28979472 28719618 29169643 29779655 30279641
29979475 29879466
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101827
SPC MCD 101827
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-101930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...VA...MD...AND ERN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101827Z - 101930Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM PARTS OF WRN VA AND
PA AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 19-20Z.
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE UPPER
90S IS OCCURRING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER VA AND PA
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...STRONGER DEEP FORCING WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH PA
NWD WITH WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING POTENTIALLY LIMITING STORM
COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH OVER VA. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING...STORMS MAY DEVELOP
INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS AND
SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD INTO THE THETA-E AXIS. STRONGER FLOW WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION...BUT SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND BULK
SHEAR FROM 20 TO 30 KT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL STORMS. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS
AOA 25 C WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.


..DIAL.. 06/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
37247748 36667892 36838042 39237920 41037783 41287607
40727562 38517662
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101949
SPC MCD 101949
VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-102145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PA THROUGH NY AND VT
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 499...

VALID 101949Z - 102145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 499 CONTINUES.
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS REMAINS STRONG TO SEVERE AS IT MOVES THROUGH
VT. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UPSTREAM ACROSS
CNTRL NY AND NRN PA.

THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES EAST THROUGH VT AT AROUND
35 TO 40 KT. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SWATHS OF
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS
CNTRL AND ERN NY AND NRN PA IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL STORMS WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE
60S. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL INCREASE OVER NY AND PA WITHIN ZONE OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM FROM NEWD EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHERE WIND PROFILES WITH 40 TO 45 KT SWLY BULK
SHEAR REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
AND BOW ECHOES.


..DIAL.. 06/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
44827197 42877274 41767380 41497609 41567723 42167755
43497613 44677503
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102042
SPC MCD 102042
SDZ000-WYZ000-102245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1310
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH W CNTRL SD AND NERN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102042Z - 102245Z
NE WY THROUGH SWRN AND W CNTRL SD ARE BEING MONITORED FOR STORM
INITIATION. IF STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN WY SEWD
THROUGH SRN SD. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM WRN NEB NWD THROUGH SWRN SD
WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE STATIONARY FRONT. AN AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S HAS ADVECTED NWWD THROUGH SRN SD
BENEATH PLUME OF VERY STEEP 8.5-9 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
ALONG WITH DIABATIC HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG. HIGH BASED CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED AIR WEST OF THE
DRYLINE ACROSS ERN WY...NW NEB AND SWRN SD. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FARTHER NE ALONG MOIST AXIS REMAINS CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED
STORMS. THE 19Z RAOB FROM RAP AND FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 70S TO
BREACH THE CAP.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER NEXT COUPLE HOURS...STORMS MIGHT
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. ACTIVITY WOULD BE NEAR
SURFACE BASED WITH LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
CONDITIONAL AND MORE UNCERTAIN. A HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT
STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES LIFT LATER THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY
LARGE HAIL.


..DIAL.. 06/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...
43580041 43460203 43990393 44590433 44910356 44920163
44460025
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102052
SPC MCD 102052
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-102145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1311
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MD/DE/PA/NJ/NY/CT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 102052Z - 102145Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY MOVING EWD AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THETA-E RIDGE ON THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 TO
4000 J/KG. 18Z SOUNDING AT IAD SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN
INCREASING WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WILL SUPPORT A MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. EXPECT AN INITIAL LINE TO
PROGRESS EWD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH...THEN REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE
LEAD LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BACKING OF
WINDS IN FAVORED TERRAIN MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SEA BREEZE LOCATED ROUGHLY WSW
TO ENE FROM THE NYC METRO AREA THROUGH HARTFORD CONN THAT MAY
PROVIDE A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.


..HURLBUT.. 06/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
39817641 41137596 41967357 41567253 39327431 38277509
38587653 38757654
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102141
SPC MCD 102141
MTZ000-102245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102141Z - 102245Z
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

STORMS ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ALONG A COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW LOCATED INVOF WRN MT. AN ADDITIONAL STRONGER LINE IS
FORMING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR BILLINGS. A CLEAR SLOT OBSERVED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS ALLOWED FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE LINE...WHILE MOISTURE HAS SOMEWHAT INCREASED AS SHOWN
IN SURFACE OBS. AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EWD INTO A MORE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
EFFECTIVE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 60 KTS AND INCREASING FLOW
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SHOWN ON VAD WIND PROFILE DATA AT BILLINGS
WILL SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.
WIND FIELDS DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT LINE SEGMENTS AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS
REMAINS BACKED IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO A BRIEF
ISOLATED TORNADO.


..HURLBUT.. 06/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
46960961 47501047 48151074 48610983 48500868 47890745
47030692 46040725 45320818 45250901 45920945 46660963
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102149
SPC MCD 102149
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-102245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ME...NH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500...

VALID 102149Z - 102245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500
CONTINUES.

WELL DEFINED MCS HAS EVOLVED OVER SRN QUEBEC EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE
ME/NH LINE. THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING QUICKLY NEWD AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN ME FROM OXFORD COUNTY TO AROOSTOOK
COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS AS 21Z SOUNDING FROM ALB DEPICTS A PLUME OF
REASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDS INTO THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 06/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...
45107191 47586985 47116756 45736782 44266926 43767101
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102219
SPC MCD 102219
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-102315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 102219Z - 102315Z
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
CU FIELD ACROSS WRN KS SWWD THROUGH THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND INTO
SERN NM HAS BECOME MORE AGITATED RECENTLY...WHILE KDDC RADAR IS JUST
BEGINNING TO PICK UP REFLECTIVITY IN LOGAN/GOVE AND SCOTT COUNTIES.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS...AND UPPER
60S DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SURGE NWWD IN A PREDOMINANT LOW LEVEL
SELY FLOW...WITH KAMA SHOWING A N-S ORIENTED LINE OF CONVERGENCE AT
THE WRN EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
IS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY...SUBTLE MOISTENING OF MID LEVELS APPEARS TO
INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SORT OF DISTURBANCE THAT MAY INFLUENCE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 3 MB/2 HRS INDICATE RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS AS
WELL...MOST LIKELY ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
CENTERED INVOF MT. NEARLY ALL MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND AS STORMS MOVE OFF
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM AND ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...SHEAR
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE IN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES.
INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED...BUT AS THEY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EWD INTO RICHER MOISTURE...A TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING LCLS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET.

..HURLBUT.. 06/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
34570136 34120229 34560329 35520320 36820254 38460164
38970114 38859994 38009927 35230053
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102251
SPC MCD 102251
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-102345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1315
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501...502...

VALID 102251Z - 102345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
501...502...CONTINUES.
NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. FROM UPSTATE NY...SWD INTO MD.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE WITHIN A BROADER ZONE
OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS QUITE WARM AND UNTIL SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OCCURS AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT WILL
PERSIST. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IT APPEARS MULTIPLE MCS'S WILL
EMERGE ACROSS THIS REGION AS DEEP BROAD SWLY FLOW FORCES
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. IT'S NOT ENTIRELY
CLEAR HOW UPDRAFTS WILL INTERACT WITH SEA BREEZE OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT AIRMASS REMAINS BUOYANT AND SHOULD SUPPORT
STRONG/SEVERE UPDRAFTS.


..DARROW.. 06/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
43837195 40277464 38957647 39827770 44157449
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110203
SPC MCD 110203
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-110300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0903 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NEW ENGLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500...503...

VALID 110203Z - 110300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
500...503...CONTINUES.
DEEP SSWLY TRAJECTORIES PERSIST ACROSS INLAND SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE
00Z SOUNDINGS DEPICT MODEST BUOYANCY PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION
FROM CT...NNEWD INTO SWRN ME. BOTH LIGHTNING AND RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST A SLOWLY ORGANIZING LINEAR MCS MOVING INTO THIS REGION FROM
NRN NH...SWWD INTO SRN NY. DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST. ALTHOUGH COASTAL FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SRN ME...IT APPEARS STRONG STORMS WILL STILL SPREAD ATOP THIS
SHALLOW INVERSION WITH SOME INTENSITY AS INFLOW AIR IS OFF CONTINENT
AND WITHIN STEPPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.


..DARROW.. 06/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...
41737331 45567044 44556902 43157065 41407182
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110213
SPC MCD 110213
KSZ000-OKZ000-110315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0913 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS...NWRN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 505...

VALID 110213Z - 110315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 505 CONTINUES.
INTENSE SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF SEVERAL LARGE HAIL REPORTS /UP
TO SOFTBALL SIZED/...HAS CONTINUED A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF 15-20
KT INTO ROOKS COUNTY KS AS OF 0210Z. BASED ON LATEST OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE CROSSING
NNW/SSE-ORIENTED HIGH THETA-E AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. THE LONGEVITY OF THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE
QUESTIONABLE BASED ON STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION RAPIDLY
INCREASING MLCIN. NEVERTHELESS...AS THE LLJ INCREASES /TO NEAR 70 KT
BY 05Z PER LATEST RUC/...MAINTENENCE OF THE SUPERCELL AND/OR A SMALL
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS
ACROSS N-CNTRL KS.

FARTHER SW...LAST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT IR IMAGERY SHOW
DRYLINE CU FIELD HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY ACROSS
SWRN/S-CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK AND WW 505 MAY BE SAFELY CANCELLED IN
THIS REGION.


..GRAMS.. 06/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...
39029728 36229807 35899981 36989997 36990110 38720110
38670030 39160013 39669927 39799794 39529735
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110247
SPC MCD 110247
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-110415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA....SWRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 110247Z - 110415Z
A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY FROM MITCHELL TO
CHICKASAW COUNTIES ALONG STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE US-18
CORRIDOR IN NRN IA INTO SRN WI ON NERN FORK OF BIFURCATED LLJ.
LATEST BLUE RIVER WI PROFILER AND 00Z DVN RAOB DEPICT FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED UPDRAFT ROTATION. THE
SUSTAINABILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS UNCERTAIN. MODIFIED 00Z
DVN RAOB STILL INDICATES MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1000
J/KG ATTM. 00Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND LATEST RUC
FORECASTS CLEARLY DEPICT AN OVERALL DEARTH IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /AS
SAMPLED BY TOP AND SGF RAOBS/ LIKELY ADVECTING N/NEWD AS LLJ
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS RIDGING
INCREASES DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING NRN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
AS SUCH...ANY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT MAY BE AT/NEAR PEAK
ATTM...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT.

..GRAMS.. 06/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...
43759243 43709096 43478957 42858927 42518983 42639177
43079334 43499342
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110305
SPC MCD 110305
KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-110400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1319
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...N-CNTRL/NERN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 505...

VALID 110305Z - 110400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 505 CONTINUES.
TORNADO WATCH 505 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
ACROSS N-CNTRL/NERN KS INTO SERN NEB PRIOR TO 04Z.

EMERGING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS N-CNTRL INTO NERN
KS E/NE OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL IN ROOKS/OSBORNE COUNTY KS. REGIONAL
PROFILERS INDICATE STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ WELL-UNDERWAY AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS /APPROACHING 70 KTS
PER RUC GUIDANCE/. THIS WILL SUPPORT A RAPID INFUSION OF HIGHER
THETA-E INTO ERN NEB/NERN KS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MUCAPES
INCREASING AOA 2000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT.


..GRAMS.. 06/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
38729911 39179934 39769941 40519898 40889850 41139761
41049661 41039602 40559541 39599514 38819567 38609752
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110351
SPC MCD 110351
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-110445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1320
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SD...FAR SERN ND
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 506...

VALID 110351Z - 110445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 506 CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED FROM W-CNTRL SD TO THE SD/ND BORDER
REGION IN THE NEAR-TERM...WITH LIKELY EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVERNIGHT INTO ERN SD. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY
BECOME NECESSARY DOWNSTREAM OF WW 506.

03Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NEB PANHANDLE WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING NEWD INTO FAR SRN SD AND
THEN EWD...BECOMING MORE STATIONARY IN FAR NRN IA. ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES WELL N OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS W-CNTRL INTO
FAR N-CNTRL SD/FAR S-CNTRL SD. THE PRIMARY SHORT-TERM RISK APPEARS
TO BE FROM SEVERE HAIL GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 50 KTS.
LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN SD AS THE
CNTRL PLAINS LLJ STRENGTHENS TO NEAR 70 KT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ROBUST WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE MAIN
THREAT.


..GRAMS.. 06/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
44609634 43449698 43549880 43630011 44380180 44900241
45420239 45960106 46219985 46199838 46089706 45699651
45019627
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110406
SPC MCD 110406
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-110500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB AND NERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 110406Z - 110500Z
IT NOW APPEARS THAT CAP IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE SEVERE STORMS IN
NRN KS AND THEY ARE SLOWLY WEAKENING. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING SCENTRAL
NEB. MODELS ALL SUGGEST AN UPWARD TREND IN THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND STILL MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH FOR AT LEAST
LARGE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB.


..HALES.. 06/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
39339667 39449865 40159927 41189951 41919923 42259829
42239669 41909554 41359534 40299576 40059584
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110539
SPC MCD 110539
SDZ000-110615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN ND AND ERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 110539Z - 110615Z
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC AND THE
AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY.
TORNADO WATCH 506 EXPIRES AT 06Z...BUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN SD.

STRONG SLY LLJ CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT OVER
SRN SD AND WAS RESULTING IN STG-SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF
SD. VERY STRONG SIGNAL EXISTS IN SHORT TERM MODEL DATA /INCLUDING
4KM WRF-NMM/ THAT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SWD INTO THE LLJ AXIS
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN SD THROUGH 09Z. GIVEN VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 45-50 KTS OF EBS /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/...LARGE HAIL WILL
BE LIKELY WITH ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. MOREOVER...LARGE DCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE ELEVATED CHARACTER OF
THE STORMS...STRONG DOWNDRAFTS MAY MAKE IT TO THE SFC...INCREASING
THE THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS.


..RACY.. 06/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...
43229709 43019714 43069819 43059877 43259996 43960083
45440147 45899948 45869810 45739718 44679703
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110819
SPC MCD 110819
MNZ000-SDZ000-111015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1323
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507...

VALID 110819Z - 111015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507
CONTINUES.

PROFILER NETWORK DEPICTS THE 60-70 KT SLY LLJ AXIS RUNNING THROUGH
CNTRL/WRN KS NWD INTO CNTRL NEB...THEN IMPINGING ON A SFC-H85
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SRN/CNTRL SD. STRONG WARM ADVECTION PROFILES
AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINNING TO EDGE EWD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
WAS SUPPORTING MODEST TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM NC NEB NWD INTO
NCNTRL/NERN SD.

DESPITE THE ELEVATED TSTM BASES...DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND 7-8
DEG C MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A MODEST DEGREE OF WSW
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITHIN THE BUOYANCY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
BOWING STRUCTURES GIVING LOCAL WIND DAMAGE ACROSS NCNTRL-NERN SD.
THIS COULD BE THE CASE ANYWHERE IN ERN SD THROUGH DAYBREAK ALONG
WITH RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL.

LLJ BEGINS TO VEER TO SW THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND WILL ADVECT
H85 MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS EWD INTO PARTS OF WCNTRL/SWRN MN AND
NWRN IA. TSTMS SHOULD MOVE BEYOND THE ERN EDGE OF THE WW IN NE
SD/WC MN AROUND 10Z...WITH ACTIVITY TRAILING SWD INTO SERN SD BY
DAYBREAK. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM FOR A SMALL
PART OF WC/SW MN BY 10Z IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

..RACY.. 06/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR...
43130010 44090205 45580303 45859893 45759699 45189600
43999588 43109802
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110940
SPC MCD 110940
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-111045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0440 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SW/WC MN AND NC/NW IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 110940Z - 111045Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/SW/WC MN AND NC/NW IA.

60-70 KT LLJ WAS BEGINNING TO VEER AND CONCENTRATE STRONGEST WARM
ADVECTION REGIME FROM ERN SD SEWD INTO NW IA. ALL SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE
STRONGER CAP INTO CNTRL AND SRN MN...AND ALSO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS
NW/NC IA WITH TIME. DESPITE ELEVATED NATURE TO THE STORMS...
UNSATURATED MID-LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH THE SFC PRODUCING WIND DMGG. OTHERWISE...LARGE
HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS.

EXPECT THAT NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 1030Z AFTER COLLABORATION CALLS
TO AFFECTED WFOS.


..RACY.. 06/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
41959553 43299673 45729602 45699369 42089416
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111123
SPC MCD 111123
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-111330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1325
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...E SD...WC-SW MN...NW IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507...508...

VALID 111123Z - 111330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
507...508...CONTINUES.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT H7 THERMAL RIDGE HAS ADVANCED NWD
INTO THE MID-MO RVR VLY WITH STRONG-SVR TSTMS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER AND INTO W IA. NLG PROFILER SHOWS 60-65 KT
LLJ CONTINUES TO VEER IN THE 1-2 KM LAYER...SUPPORTING STRONGEST
SFC-H85 THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS SW MN AND NW IA WHERE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR SVR TSTMS WILL EXIST THROUGH MID-MORNING. PRIMARY
SVR THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS.
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 507 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 13Z. EXTRAPOLATION
SUGGESTS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONG TSTMS WILL MOVE OUT OF SD
INTO THE MN PORTION OF WATCH 508. UNLESS A SMALL LOCAL WFO
EXTENSION OF THE WW IS NEEDED AT 13Z...THIS WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.


..RACY.. 06/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...
42639623 44279848 45499825 45549477 44279358 42589426
NNNN