AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 405 PM CST WED DEC 31 2003 .DISCUSSION... NOT MUCH CHG IN THE OVER SYNOPTIC THINKING FM YDA. CIRC OFF BAJA OPENING UP AS NOTED BY JET ON THE FNT QUAD THIS MRNG. LOW LVL WAA IS UNDERWAY TO OUR S WITH TMPS IN THE 60S IN OK AND PUSHING INTO SERN KS. DEWPTS ARE COMING UP AS NOTED BY THE RUC YDA WHICH HAS BEEN FCSTG LOW LVL ST FORMATION OVRNGT. THE ETA12 IS DOING THIS AS WELL. LOOKING FOR QUITE A BIT OF ST TO MOV IN TMR MRNG AND OVRSRPD THE CWA THRU THE MRNG. HELD TMPS DOWN TMR DESPITE THE STG INDICATED WRMG. STILL 50 XPCD IN SRN IA WHICH NOT TOO BAD FOR NEWS YEAR DAY. STILL HAVE THAT SML PCPN CHC S OF OTM TMR WITH BTR CHCS JUST TO OUR E. THIS WAVE GOES BY AND ESSENTIALLY ALLOWS THE UPR TROF TO GRDLY DEEPEND OVR THE WRN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH ALSO ALLOWS THE POOLED CD AIR TO SETTLE SWD SOMEWHAT. ITS AT THIS POINT WHERE PROBLEMS BEGIN. THE ETA WANTS TO HANG THIS CD AIR UP MORE SO THAN THE GFS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE BROAD W/SW IN THE MID/UPR LVLS. ONE CAN NOT IGNORE THE PUSH HOWEVER. STILL HODLING TMPS DOWN IN THE OUTPDS BUT NOT BEFORE WE HAVE A POSSIBILITY FOR PCPN FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY NGT. THE GFS REMAINS ADAMANT ABT IT WITH THE ETA STAYING DRY. THE X-SECTIONS LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH A GOOD MOUND OF COLD AIR PUSHING IN...ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A LIFTING SFC FOR PAC MOISTURE COMING ACRS IN THE FLOW. ISENTROPICS INDICATED LWR PRES DEFS BUT THEIR IS LTL UPGLIDE. THE GFS ALSO INDUCES A MIDDLE LVL CIRC AT 90HRS WHICH IS SUSPICIOUS. ALL IN ALL, TOED THE LTL CHG ROAD FOR NOW, HEDGING MY BETS FOR PCPN ON SAT, WHICH AT THE MOMENT IS THE MAIN QUANDARY. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MYERS ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 PM EST WED DEC 31 2003 .SHORT TERM... MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE CLOUDS/TEMPS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD ACYC MID/UPR LVL FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE NRN LAKES OVER FLAT CNTRL CONUS RDG AND WRN TROF. AT THE SFC...A TROF EXTENDED TOWARD ERN LK SUPERIOR FROM LO PRES OVER QUEBEC WHILE A RDG FROM WRN WI INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD WAS ADVANCING TOWARD UPR MI. AS A RESULT...WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUICKLY OVER WEST/CNTRL UPR MI THIS EVENING. 11-3.9 IMAGERY INDICATED PERSISTENT LAKE CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH HLF OF UPR MI AS H8 TEMPS REMAINED NEAR -10C. RADAR INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF LES/FLURRIES FROM THE NEAR KP59 TO GRAND MARAIS THAT WAS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. WHILE BACKING WINDS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RDG SHOULD EVENTUALLY HELP SKIES CLEAR OUT...EXPECT LAKE MOISTURE LINGERING BLO 900 MB INVERSION...TIL SWRLY WIND IS MORE PROMINENT AFTER THE RDG AXIS PASSES THROUGH. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP OFF. SO...GOING FCST MINS LOOK ON TRACK INLAND BUT WILL BUMP UP A NOTCH WHERE CLEARING IS DELAYED...SUCH AS THE KEWEENAW AND LOCATIONS EAST OF MARQUETTE. JLB .PREV DISCUSSION...FOR LATER PERIODS. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 130KT JET MOVES TOWARD THE AREA BY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH LOW LEVELS BEING SO DRY...AM HESITANT TO GO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS FOR NOW...BUT IT IS NOTED THAT THE ETA SHOWS OVER 0.1 INCH OF PCPN OVER THE WEST HALF LATE THU AFTN. 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES STAY BELOW 1305 DM SO ANY PCPN SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MODELS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT BEGINNING BY FRI MORNING. THE GFS AND ETA BOTH SHOW AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING THRU THE CWFA THU NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT PCPN IN THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST AN ELEVATED LAYER OF TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THU NIGHT...MEANING THAT ANY PCPN THAT FALLS WOULD BE SNOW OR SLEET. THE ETA ACTUALLY SHOWS ALMOST 0.25 QPF AT MQT OVERNIGHT THU...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR ADVY TYPE ICE IF THIS QPF AMOUNT VERIFIES. A CHANGE TO RAIN IS A CONCERN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BL TO WARM RATHER QUICKLY. IT WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN OVER INLAND AREAS AS THE AIRMASS TMRW WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL DESPITE SLY FLOW AS THE HIGH DEPARTS. THE ETA AND GFS SHOW DRY AIR QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A MOIST LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE BETWEEN -5 AND -9 BELOW. THIS WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. BEYOND THIS POINT...FCST GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT...AND FCST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOWER. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES WILL EJECT SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ETA ARE IN DISAGREEMENT OF WHERE THESE SHORT WAVES WILL TRAVEL. THE ETA SUGGESTS A MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE...WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO SPIN UP ON THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VLY FRI INTO SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW PRES TO RIDE INTO WESTERN OH VLY BY SAT MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE FURTHER NORTH...CAUSING LOW PRES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH SEPARATES THE MAIN ARCTIC AIR TO THE N AND THE POLAR AIR TO THE SOUTH. THIS CAUSES THE MAIN LOW PRES TO BE OVER THE FAR NRN PLAINS AND NW ONTARIO. IT LOOKS LIKE BOTH MODELS SHOW DRYING BEHIND THE INITIAL TROUGH THU NIGHT SO WILL GO DRY ON FRI OTHER THAN SOME LEFTOVER FZDZ FRI MORNING. TOUGH CALL FOR FRI NIGHT AS THE ETA WANTS TO BRING ADDITIONAL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CWFA IN THE DRY SECTOR. SINCE THE FCST CURRENTLY HAS CHC POPS IN THE FCST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THEM IN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW...IT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY. IF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES NW OF THE CWFA FRI NIGHT AND SAT...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTH...IT WILL LIKELY BE COOLER WITH SOME PCPN. THE NGM IS LEANING TOWARD THE GFS SOLN...AND THE UKMET IS TRENDING NW AS WELL. WILL THEREFORE CUT POPS TO 30 OR 40 PERCENT FOR FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE ETA SHOWS WIDESPREAD SNOW SAT WITH THE AREA IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND UNDER THE DEFORMATION AXIS OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES. THE GFS IS TOTALLY DRY ON SAT WITH THE LOW PRES POSITION NW OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR THE DRY SLOT TO BE OVER THE CWFA. WITH THE GFS SOLN BEING PREFERRED...HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS TO A LOW CHANCE (30 PCT) ON SAT AS WELL. DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO TAKE OUT POPS ALL TOGETHER. BIG CHANGE FOR SAT WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPS WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -10 TO -14C. THE EXTENDED WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MEAN LONG WAVE OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE PAC AND OVER THE N ATLC. A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS MAIN FEATURE....WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE OH VLY REGION SUN AND OFF THE NE ATLC COAST BY MON. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRES TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH THE VERY COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SOME TYPE OF LAKE INDUCED TROUGH HANGING AROUND OVER THE LAKES THROUGH WED. THIS WILL MAKE THE ARGUMENT THAT CHC OF SNOW WILL NEED TO CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST SUN AND MON DESPITE MOISTURE BEING QUITE LIMITED. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EVEN THE ENSEMBLES TO A POINT FOR TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF FROM THE MAIN POLAR VORTEX OVER NW ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH THE UKMET AND ECMWF DO NOT SHOW THE SYSTEM...THE CANADIAN GLOBAL DOES...SO HAVE OPTED TO GO CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA FOR TUE AND WED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SUN THRU TUE. THE MAIN ARCTIC BLAST LOOKS TO BE ON WED WHERE THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -30C...ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT AS EXTREME. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MRD mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 925 PM EST WED DEC 31 2003 .DISCUSSION... MINOR CHANGES THIS EVENING. DECREASED EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS FA. CURRENT RUC LL RH FIELDS HAVE A GOOD FIX ON CLOUD COVER AND ITS MOVEMENT FROM THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS LOOK FINE...WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE POP OVERNIGHT FOR NE ZONES NEAR LAKES. PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (DAYS 1-2)... S/WV CRNTLY OVER THE NRN GTLAKES WILL CONTINUE TO ZIP EWD, PASSING N OF THE RGN, ALONG WITH THE ASSCD SFC LOW. CDFNT XNTNDG S FROM THE LOW WILL PASS THIS EVNG, ALLOWING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TO WORK INTO THE RGN. ANOTHER S/WV APRCHS LATE THU NGT AND FRI MRNG WITH THE PSBLTY OF LGT MIXED PCPN. SLIGHT DIFFS WITH THIS WAVE, WITH THE GFS A LTL FASTER BRINGING THE MSTR IN THURSDAY NGT. SINCE THE GFS HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE, THINK IT MAY HAVE A BETTER HNDL ON THE TIMING, BUT EITHER WAY ONLY MINOR EFFECTS ON THE FCST. FOR TNGT, IT APPEARS WE'LL SEE A PD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS MID LVL MSTR MOVS E OF THE RGN, AND THEN SOME LOW CLDS (MAINLY NRN ZONES) AS FLOW COMES ARND TO THE WNW. BL TEMPS AND INSTABILTIY QUITE MARGINAL FOR LES, AND MM5 OUTPUT INDICATES LTL IF ANY -SHSN TNGT. HOWEVER SAT PIX DO SHOW SOME STREAMERS DVLPNG BEHIND THE CDFNT OVER THE NRN GTLAKES, AND DEPSITE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS, THE LOW LVL FLOW IS WELL ALIGNED FROM 290 DEG FROM AFTER 02Z. IN ADDN, THE MESOETA/ETA12 ALSO SHOW SOME LGT PCPN LATER TNGT. THEREFORE WE'LL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR -SHSN ACRS ONON/MADISON/ONEIDA COUNTY OVERNGT. ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE MRNG HRS, AND ETA PROFILES ARE QUITE MOIST AT LOW LVLS FOR SYR/UCA AREAS TMRW, SUGGESTING CLDS ALL DAY LONG. XPCT LOW CLDS TO LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS THE FINGER LAKES/WRN MOHAWK VLY AND SRN TUG, WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE ACRS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA. NXT WEAK SYSTEM APRCHS LATE THU NGT. ETA PROFILES INDICATE POTNL FOR SOME -FZRA AND -SN, WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS -SN, ALTHO PROFILE IS CLOSE TO -FZRA FOR A FEW HRS. CRNT GRIDS HAVE CHC POPS AND THIS AGREES WITH LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. MAY EVENTUALLY END UP RAISING POPS TO LIKELY WITH LATER PCKGS, BUT FOR NOW WE'LL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS AFTER MDGNT WITH EITHER -SN OR -FZRA. WILL KEEP CHCS INTO FRIDAY MRNG, THEN THE LGT PCPN SHUD MOV OFF TO THE EAST BY AFTN. GUIDANCE TEMPS SIMILAR AND WILL USE A 50/50 FWC/MAV BLEND IN THE GRIDS. LONG TERM (FRI NGT THROUGH WED)... FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOLLOWED THE GFS/MRF SOLUTION. SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MID WEST TO JAMES BAY WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST WHERE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT SFC WAVE MAY CROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH DECENT DYNAMICS THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO POSE SOME HYDO DIFFICULTIES. FOR NOW TUESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH CHC OF SNOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH H5 UPPER LEVEL TROF. && .AVIATION... MID DECK ACROSS AREA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE...EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN VCNTY UCA/SYR WHICH MAY REDUCE CIG/VIS TO MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 08-12Z. VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. PA...NONE. $$ DAYS 1-2: BRADY DAYS 3-7/AVIATION: MUNDSCHENK ny SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 747 PM CST WED DEC 31 2003 .DISCUSSION...ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL BEND. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS MODEST UPGLIDE IN THE 290-300K LAYER OVERNIGHT. KCRP RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WILL WORD AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN BUT CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE RAIN WILL BE 20 PERCENT. DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND BOUNDARY LAYER PROGS SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ADVECTING INTO THE COASTAL BEND. WITH COOL WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE BAYS...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL BEND UP TO VICTORIA CROSSROADS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 64 76 64 78 64 / 20 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 62 73 63 76 66 / 20 20 20 10 10 LAREDO 61 77 62 78 62 / 10 10 10 05 05 .CRP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ 89/TMT tx SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1020 AM CST WED DEC 31 2003 .DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 50S OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NEAR THE COAST. SOUNDINGS AND U/A AND 88D SHOW 25 TO 30 KNOT OVER SOUTH TEXAS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER STRENGHTEN THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOW POPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS. FOR MARINE...1200 UTC ETA AND RUC SHOW ONLY A MODEST GRADEINT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LOWER WINDS A LITTLE OFFSHORE AND DROP SCEC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 70 64 76 64 78 / 10 10 20 00 00 VICTORIA 68 62 73 63 76 / 10 20 30 00 00 LAREDO 70 59 77 62 79 / 00 20 10 00 00 && .CRP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ 72...SHORT-TERM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 945 AM EST WED DEC 31 2003 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...WHICH IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPS THIS MORNING AVERAGED AROUND 5F BELOW MAV/FWC GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT...CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS (PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING). TEMPS SO FAR THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN RECOVERING NICELY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT ARE AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE LATEST RUC/LAMP GUIDANCE. THE MAIN (ONLY) FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS GOING TO BE WITH THE MAX TEMPS...WHICH WILL COME DOWN TO HOW DEEP THE MIXED LAYER CAN GET TO THIS AFTN. THE LATEST ETA/RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING THROUGH 950 MB OR AROUND 2KFT...WHILE THE LOCAL WORKSTATION ETA INDICATES A LITTLE DEEPER MIXING (THROUGH ~ 925 MB OR 2.5KFT). THE BROAD-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE MIXING AND AS A RESULT...SO DESPITE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO +4 TO 6C THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 60F OVER MOST AREAS EVEN WITH THE FULL SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IF ANY CHANGES TO THE LAND OR MARINE FORECASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. VA...NONE. NC...NONE. HURLEY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... -------------------------------------------------------------------- .OVERVIEW...A NICE WEATHER END TO 2003 AND BEGINNING TO THE NEW YEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS AVGG 5-10 DEGS ABV NORML. FLAT UPR RDGG/SFC HIGH PRES IN CONTROL OVER CNTRL MID ATLC REGION NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MOISTURE INCRSG PER BACKING FLOW ALOFT/RETURN SFC FLOW BY END OF WEEK AND INTO WEEKEND. WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN DEVELPG DEEP SW FLOW BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING EXPECT PCPN CHCS MINIMAL THRU MUCH OF WEEKEND UNTIL SHARPER TROF DIGS THRU OHVLY AND INTO EASTERN STATES BY SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON. .DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT YEAR-END. ALSO A DECENT NEW YEARS EVE IN STORE (ALBEIT COOL)...SHORT WAVE PASSING BY WELL TO NORTH THIS EVE MAY BRING IN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AND EVENTUAL WIND SHIFT BUT LTL CHC FOR PCPN GIVEN VERY DRY LOW/MID LVLS. A SLIGHT RISE IN HEIGHTS SUGG HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGS MILDER ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE NEW YEAR DESPITE CONTD LIMITED MIXING. CLOUDS INCSRG BY LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD SHEARING SHORT WAVE IN SW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK 8H WAA BURST/8H-7H FRONTOGENSIS INDICTED MNLY ACRS NRN FORECAST AREA EARLY FRI. THINK MOST ENERGY WL BE SPENT IN CLOUD PRODUCTION BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LGT SHRAS SO WL KEEP CURRENT SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE. THE WEAK FORCING LIFTS NE LATR ON FRI AND SAT SHUD BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS WELL INTO 60S AGAIN. MODEL TRENDS SLOW ADVANCE OF SFC BNDRY ASSOCD WITH DIGGING SHORT WAVE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH LTST GUID SUGGESTING BULK OF PCPN SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. (THOUGHT ABOUT REMOVING POPS FOR SUN BUT WL KEEP FOR NOW IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SHOW FASTER MOVING SYSTEM). MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR SUN INTO MON GIVEN CURRENT SLOWER MODEL SOLNS. CULLEN va