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000
acus11 kwns 100226
swomcd
spc mcd 100225
moz000 - okz000 - ksz000 - 100330-
mesoscale discussion 0222
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0925 pm cdt mon mar 09 2009
areas affected ... parts of cntrl ok into se ks and swrn mo
concerning ... tornado watch 52...
valid 100225z - 100330z
the severe weather threat for tornado watch 52 continues.
an additional ww will likely be issued before 03z.
mid/upper forcing ... associated with a low amplitude wave lifting out
of the southern rockies ... is expected to provide the focus for
continued upscale growth of convective development east northeast of
a weak frontal wave migrating eastward along the kansas/ oklahoma
border through 03 - 06z. much of this activity may remain elevated
above a lingering surface warm front extending across southeast
kansas into the ozark plateau ... but at least scattered storms may
persist along a pre - cold frontal confluence zone just west of a
strengthening low - level jet axis.
although the primary low - level moistening appears to be occurring
above a decoupling boundary layer ... the warm sector near surface air
mass still seems marginally supportive of tornadic potential. with
clockwise curved low - level hodographs enlarging as southerly 850 mb
level winds strengthen in excess of 40 - 50 kts ... the risk of a
tornadic supercell can not be ruled out. highest probability for
this still seems to exist near the immediate vicinity of the warm
front across southeastern kansas into southwestern missouri.
but ... at least a marginally severe hail and damaging wind threat is
expected to continue across parts of central into north
central/northeast oklahoma several more hours.
.. kerr.. 03/10/2009
... please see www. spc. noaa. gov for graphic product...
attn ... wfo ... sgf ... eax ... tsa ... top ... ict ... oun...
lat ... lon 35459871 35969845 36879782 37659693 37999638 38299573
38379480 37949404 37249392 36799434 34909769 34879873
35459871