FXUS04 KWBC 161851 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 150 PM EST TUE MAR 16 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION VALID MAR 18/0000 UTC THRU MAR 19/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... NERN U.S... THE ETA...GFS AND NGM HAVE ALL TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC LOW MOVG NEWD TONIGHT OFF THE MID ATL COAST AND TOWARD THE CAN MARITIMES. THE ETA'S TREND OVER THE PAST TWO RUNS HAS DEFINITELY BEEN TOWARD THE PREV RUNS OF THE GFS WHICH HAD A SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE TRACK AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN THAN THE ETA. QPF WISE...FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT FOR DAY 1 WITH PCPN OVR THE NERN U.S. GIVEN THE CONVERGING SOLNS. STRONG UVVS EXPECTED TO CONT INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE VERY PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TO SFC SYSTEMS....WITH GOOD AGRMNT WITH .25-.50" AMTS FROM NRN PA...MOST OF NY INTO SRN TO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEW ENGLAND...SAVE FAR SRN AND SERN NEW ENGLAND. SNOW ALSO WL BE PREDOMINANT PTYPE OVR CNTRL TO NRN PA INTO NEARLY ALL OF NY STATE...EXPECT LONG ISLAND. FL... CONVECTION CONTS TO BE WELL DEFINED WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN ERN U.S. FRONT IN THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS ACRS FL. THIS MOISTURE AXIS EXPECTED TO SINK SWD THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL MDT TO LOCALLY HVY PCPN AMTS LIKELY FOR S FL. MANUAL DAY 1 QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE HEAVIER NGM GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CURRENT RADAR. THE ETA AND GFS APPEAR TO BE DEFICIENT WITH QPF AMTS. NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY.... TWO AREAS OF QUICK MOVG HT FALLS EXPECTED TO PUSH ESEWD IN THE NWLY FLOW ACRS SRN CAN/NRN TIER OF THE U.S. OVERALL...LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THESE TWO SYSTEM...WITH ONLY LIGHT PCPN AMTS EXPECTED ACRS THESE AREAS DAY 1. PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES... THRU DAY 1....HT FALLS MOVG ACRS SRN CAN WL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. SUBSEQUENTLY...ONLY SOME LIGHT PCPN EXPECTED ON THE SRN FRINGES OF THESE HT FALLS FOR THESE REGIONS. STRONGER HT FALLS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE PAC NW DAY 2. ORAVEC GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV DAY 2... ...NORTHEAST/OHIO VALLEY/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW. NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN MODEL QPFS HERE. ...SRN ARKANSAS TO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC... SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND PREFERRED. RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN DEVELOPING AREA OF WARM. ...PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES... THE COMBINATION OF GRADUALLY FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS AND APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW SOME INCREASE IN ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WITH SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE NRN CASCADES/NRN COASTAL RANGES. FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE FAR NRN ROCKIES WILL RECEIVE MODERATE PRECIPITATION AS WELL. ORAVEC/KOSIER GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 18/00Z 0.01 535220 537212 539203 539195 538188 533170 528162 524155 518148 512144 501141 498140 495137 490130 487120 487112 486106 487102 494096 494092 494086 491075 487067 482062 475059 468058 464058 462059 461064 462070 465076 468081 468085 461090 456088 448089 441089 437090 433088 428084 425082 422084 422087 423091 425095 426101 423106 424112 426122 429123 437120 440120 442122 446126 449129 450137 454144 457152 461159 466165 471169 483179 490187 493190 495195 495199 487201 476207 471211 468216 469219 480223 485225 488229 488234 482235 476232 474235 474240 477247 482254 500288 504291 509288 513279 517273 520264 521257 520251 518239 515230 511222 504207 507202 509202 511204 515208 526222 529225 532224 535220 0.01 465648 464643 460640 457632 453624 448620 439618 434619 429626 426630 423637 421640 417642 409648 401651 384664 376671 374675 369679 355694 339712 325730 317738 310746 296758 288765 281771 264781 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321975 340932 0.25 524192 523191 521187 521184 519181 518181 517181 516186 517187 519191 520192 523195 524192 0.25 513261 511255 510248 508240 506235 503234 499228 498224 495223 495228 497235 499240 501245 503252 504258 508262 510264 513261 0.25 451665 448654 443649 439647 433648 423652 410673 408678 404693 404705 407716 410725 413741 413751 410778 411785 415791 420795 424796 430793 435788 437781 439767 439759 440752 444740 446731 447725 448710 448702 448695 450681 452671 451665 0.25 504272 503269 503266 501262 499260 496258 494258 496261 497264 498266 499270 500271 502274 504272 0.25 492148 493144 492142 489136 486132 482129 478127 472126 469129 467136 469141 474143 480143 485147 488149 492148 0.25 271794 267792 259794 254798 250803 246808 243815 245820 247821 250820 254815 259810 263806 267802 271796 271794 0.50 441699 443677 441671 438663 435662 430665 426668 422673 419676 412684 411690 411696 415702 419708 422718 426729 431731 436729 440722 441699 24HR QP VT 19/00Z 0.01 524261 523250 520238 517226 514218 507206 513209 518211 524212 526212 530210 536203 540196 544183 546173 549163 551147 553139 554124 552113 549108 546103 544102 540102 533102 528109 528114 527122 527136 527140 524145 518143 506132 493122 487117 481108 470098 463093 456089 451087 441087 435090 432094 431100 433104 436107 443109 450109 454108 458109 462114 458120 455122 452127 452135 454141 456150 461159 467165 472171 480182 482186 483192 480195 475197 468200 462204 449211 443215 437218 426227 420233 416243 416248 419251 422254 431254 437254 441255 446257 457261 460263 462266 466275 471282 478288 484293 492297 499297 506295 512290 516284 0.01 469629 465622 461618 458618 453621 449626 444635 435653 428669 417698 404727 402734 401744 401755 403761 403765 392779 381792 377796 370799 374786 378780 380771 381764 381755 379747 375739 371736 367735 364735 359737 350743 344749 340755 336760 330773 327786 323801 321814 319829 318848 317866 318883 320920 316932 314947 315957 316963 318966 321970 325972 328973 333973 337972 343968 351959 355942 358910 360886 361863 358841 363831 370830 375831 381833 388843 393852 397862 399874 397883 397891 397896 400901 404909 416921 422926 428930 442937 446940 449946 453954 458960 463966 469969 486988 495992 500988 501977 499958 497939 499929 506914 512897 513878 510860 503844 489829 468817 446808 433804 420800 416800 416796 425792 432786 437783 440778 450762 453755 457746 460738 463729 464721 465711 465695 464684 465676 470648 471638 469629 0.25 532190 531179 528169 525163 520156 509146 495135 484129 477129 475132 473137 473150 476159 479165 483172 494183 505192 510196 514199 522200 529195 532190 0.25 520264 520258 519249 516238 511226 505216 499209 495204 489202 483202 478204 471208 463213 455218 447222 440227 438233 439238 443241 451244 453244 457246 462250 469256 475265 481274 490282 500288 506287 510285 513281 515277 520264 0.25 453687 452682 450679 446679 442683 440690 440705 438718 436726 433732 426743 424751 426755 429757 434756 440752 443746 446740 449728 452712 453697 453687 0.25 349837 348830 345824 342824 339827 336836 335846 333868 333889 331910 330921 330930 331934 332937 335938 338935 340932 344923 347913 348901 347891 347880 348870 348848 349837 0.50 512275 515269 517262 517248 514239 511232 507223 502215 497209 492205 487204 484205 477207 472211 469213 467218 473224 472230 470232 467235 465239 466243 468247 473254 478261 482267 487274 493279 501283 505282 508281 512275 0.50 525188 525180 524175 521168 517161 511155 505150 497148 488146 486150 487156 489166 492172 498179 503185 508190 513193 517194 523192 525188 0.50 338876 342874 344869 342865 336864 335872 338876 0.50 340891 337892 335899 336906 337910 340911 343909 343904 343896 342893 340891 1.00 504272 506266 506260 507250 507246 509242 509236 504225 500217 496213 493210 489209 484209 478212 478217 484222 489227 488234 482234 477236 474237 473241 479253 488265 493270 500273 504272 1.00 518181 517176 516173 515171 513168 511166 511165 508164 505163 504164 502168 503173 504174 506178 507179 509181 512183 515184 518181 1.50 497259 497255 497254 495249 492245 491243 490242 487240 484239 481239 480239 478243 480247 482249 482250 485253 486255 487257 490259 493261 496260 497259 1.50 502228 501226 500223 499221 497218 496217 494214 491213 488213 486214 487219 487220 489223 491225 492227 495229 497231 500231 502228 $$