####018006112#### FZAK80 PAFC 100012 ICEAFC SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA 315 PM AKST FRIDAY JANUARY 9 2009 THE JANUARY YEAR GROUP AND OUTLOOK IS ATTACHED. FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY 14 JANUARY 2009 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH. SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA EARLY SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE MONDAY. A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE NEAR THE DATELINE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS EARLY MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL STRETCH ALONG THE ALASKAN PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. -ARCTIC OCEAN- -BEAUFORT SEA- -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT- PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND- PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT- PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN- PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT- PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON- PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND- ICE COVERED. -BERING SEA- PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES- PKZ200-NORTON SOUND- PKZ185-010300-ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS- PKZ180-SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT- PKZ165-PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF- PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN- THE ICE EDGE LIES FROM NEAR FALSE PASS ALONG THE BERING SIDE OF THE ALASKAN PENINSULA TO 56N 162W TO 56.6N 160.1W TO 57.4N 160W TO 57.4N 162.3W TO 56.9N 163W TO 56.5N 165.8W TO 56.4N 167.4W TO 56.8N 169.2W TO 57.5N 171.5W TO 58.6N 173.7W TO 59.3N 176.2W TO 60.6N 178.4W TO 61.6N 177.3E TO 60.4N 172.9E AND CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE EDGE IS MAINLY 1 TO 3 TENTHS NEW ICE OFTEN IN STRIPS. OPEN WATER EXTENDS 5 TO 20 NM FROM THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN BRISTOL BAY AND OUT TO 165W. 4 TO 7 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES IN PORT MOLLER. 3 TO 8 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES IN IZEMBEK LAGOON AND THE BERING SIDE OF FALSE PASS. 4 TO 6 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES NEAR COLD BAY. DETAILED ICE EDGE LOCATION 170W TO 180. 170W 57.1N 171W 57.4N 172W 57.9N 173W 58.5N 174W 58.6N 175W 59.0N 176W 59.2N 177W 60.0N 178W 60.4N 179W 60.7N 180 61.0N FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEST OF 175W...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY THEN INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ICE EDGE WILL MOVE 3 TO 5 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY THEN 10 TO 12 NM SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NET ICE EDGE MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ICE EDGE BETWEEN 175W AND 165W...STRIPS OF ICE IN CONCENTRATIONS UP TO 4 TENTHS WILL MOVE AROUND SAINT PAUL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE OVERALL ICE EDGE WILL MOVE 10 TO 12 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. THE ICE WILL MOVE WEST 10 NM TUESDAY AND TO THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 NM WEDNESDAY. THE NET MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST 30 TO 35 NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR WATERS EAST OF 165W...INCLUDING BRISTOL BAY...DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW THE ICE TO INCREASE IN CONCENTRATION ALONG THE EDGE. THE WARM FRONT DUE LATE TUESDAY WILL MOVE THE ICE TO THE WEST 10 TO 15 NM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY- PKZ141-KACHEMAK BAY- PKZ130-BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS- COOK INLET ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE. ICE OBSERVATIONS FROM COOK INLET WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED. NORTH OF THE FORELANDS 5 TO 10 TENTHS YOUNG...NEW AND FIRST YEAR THIN ICE IN BRASH CONDITIONS IS MOVING WITH THE TIDES. THE UPPER ENDS OF KNIK AND TURNAGAIN ARMS ARE FROZEN. SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS STRIPS OF YOUNG AND NEW ICE IN CONCENTRATIONS OF 4 TO 10 TENTHS EXTEND TO 30 NM SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. 5 TO 7 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES ALONG THE COAST FROM NINILCHIK AROUND ANCHOR POINT. 5 TO 10 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE LIES IN KACHEMAK BAY AND ALONG THE SPIT. 5 TO 9 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE LIES IN KAMISHAK BAY AND THE BAYS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST TO THE MAIN PACK. COOK INLET FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE TIDES AND CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG DOWN INLET WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE THICKER ICE INTO THE SOUTHERN INLET AND MOVE ICE AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SHORE. ICE THICKNESSES IN NORTHERN COOK INLET WILL REACH 18 TO 22 INCHES IN PLACES BY SATURDAY. PLEASE REMEMBER ICE IN COOK INLET VARIES GREATLY WITH THE TIDES. KCOLE 2009 ...JANUARY YEAR GROUP ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK... ICE EDGE LOCATIONS IN THE BERING SEA ARE 30 TO 40 PERCENT BEYOND NORMAL. ACTUAL ICE EDGE POSITIONS THIS YEAR ARE 60 TO 100 NM SOUTH OF THE SAME TIME LAST YEAR. ICE IN COOK INLET IS 25 TO 35 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN GREATER IN KACHEMAK BAY. THE YEAR GROUP FOR JANUARY IS 1975 FOLLOWED BY 2000. BOTH OF THESE YEARS WERE DURING LONG PERIODS OF LA NINA CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC. THIS YEAR WE ARE ALSO IN A LA NINA THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE SPRING. LA NINA WINTERS ARE USUALLY COLDER THAN NORMAL IN ALASKA. SEA ICE CONDITIONS IN JANUARY 2000 WERE SLIGHTLY MORE SEVERE THAN IN 2009 AND SLIGHTLY LESS ADVANCED IN THE BERING DURING 1975. THE BERING SEA AND COOK INLET WILL HAVE EXTREME ICE SEASONS THIS YEAR WITH MUCH GREATER THAN NORMAL ICE AREAS. EXPECT THE ICE EDGE TO REACH POSITIONS NEAR AND BEYOND THE BERING SHELF SEVERAL TIMES THROUGH FEBRUARY AND INTO EARLY MARCH. ICE WILL MOVE IN AND OUT OF SAINT PAUL WITH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS. ICE WILL SURROUND SAINT GEORGE AT TIMES FROM LATE JANUARY THROUGH FEBRUARY. ICE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND RETREAT THEN RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE BERING SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY FEBRUARY. ICE WILL CONTINUE IN LOWER COOK INLET INTO APRIL AND UPPER COOK INLET THROUGH APRIL. ICE THICKNESS IN COOK INLET WILL GROW UP TO 30 TO 36 INCHES FOR AREAS NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND BY EARLY FEBRUARY. KCOLE 2009 $$