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Highlights of Clear Skies in Arkansas
- Arkansas sources would reduce emissions of SO2 by 83%, NOx by
83%, and mercury by 54% by 2020 due to Clear Skies.
- The health benefits in Arkansas would total $1.7 billion annually
($310 million under the alternative estimate) and include 200
fewer premature deaths (100 under the alternative estimate) and
500 fewer hospitalizations/emergency room visits each year.
- In addition, Arkansas would receive environmental benefits including
reduced sulfur and nitrogen deposition and visibility benefits
valued at $18 million each year by 2020 for Arkansas residents
who visit National Parks and Wilderness Areas nationwide.
- Clear Skies does not significantly impact electricity prices.
With or without Clear Skies, electricity prices in the electric
supply region that includes Arkansas are expected to remain below
2000 prices.
Clear Skies: An Innovative Approach to Improving Human Health
and the Environment
Why Clear Skies?
- Air quality has improved, but serious concerns persist
- Arkansas's citizens suffer ill effects from air pollution,
including asthma attacks and premature death
- Electricity generation sector remains a major emissions source
- Very cost-effective to control the power sector, relative
to other sources
- Sources are concerned about upcoming complex and burdensome
regulations
Advantages of the Clear Skies Approach
- Guarantees significant nationwide emissions reductions - beginning
years before full implementation
- Arkansas sources would substantially reduce emissions of SO2,
NOx, and mercury
- Delivers dramatic progress towards achievement of critical
health and environmental goals
- Uses proven, market-based flexible approach with incentives
for innovation
- Recognizes environmental needs as well as industry constraints,
allowing industry to better manage its operations and finances
while lowering risks to the public
- Sources are projected to install pollution controls to enable
continued reliance on coal
- Increases certainty across the board for industry, regulators,
and consumers
Under Current Clean Air Act Power Plants Would Face a Complex
Set of Requirements
For a larger image, click here.
Clear Skies Sets a Firm Timeline for Emission Reductions
The existing Title IV SO2 cap-and-trade program provides
an incentive and a mechanism to begin reductions upon enactment
of Clear Skies years before regulatory action under the current
Act. |
2004: The NOx SIP call (summertime NOx cap in 19 Eastern
States + D.C.)
2008: Clear Skies NOx Phase I (2.1 million ton annual cap
assigned to two Zones with trading programs)
2010:
- Clear Skies Hg Phase I (26 ton annual cap with a national trading
program)
- SO2 Phase I (4.5 million ton annual cap with a national trading
program)
2018:
- Clear Skies NOx Phase II (1.7 million ton annual cap assigned
to two Zones with trading programs)
- Clear Skies Hg Phase II (15 ton annual cap with a national
trading program)
- Clear Skies SO2 Phase II (3.0 million ton annual cap with a
national trading program)
Emissions in Arkansas under Clear Skies
Emissions in Arkansas (2020) would be reduced from 2000 levels:
- 72% reduction in SO2 emissions
- 83% reduction in NOx emissions
- 14% reduction in mercury emissions
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Emissions: Current (2000) and Existing Clean Air Act Regulations (base case*) vs. Clear Skies in Arkansas in 2010 and 2020
![Emissions: Current (2000) and Existing Clean Air Act Regulations (base case*) vs. Clear Skies in Arkansas in 2010 and 2020 -- Nitrogen oxides](../images/ar-im1b.gif)
Note:
The base case using IPM includes Title IV, the NOx SIP Call, NSR
settlements, and state-specific caps in CT, MA, MO, NC, NH, TX,
and WI. It does not include mercury MACT in 2007 or any other potential
future regulations to implement the current ambient air quality
standards or other parts of the Clean Air Act. Base case emissions
in 2020 will likely be lower due to state and federal regulatory
actions that have not yet been promulgated.
Clear Skies Health and Air Quality Benefits in Arkansas
Improve Public Health
By 2020, Arkansas would receive approximately $1.7 billion
in annual health benefits from reductions in fine particle and
ozone concentrations alone due to Clear Skies. (see
note 1) |
- Reduced ozone and fine particle exposure by 2020 would result
in public health benefits of:
- approximately 200 fewer premature deaths each year (see
note 1)
- approximately 100 fewer cases of chronic bronchitis each year
- approximately 300 fewer nonfatal heart attacks each year
- approximately 500 fewer hospital and emergency room visits
each year
- approximately 22,000 fewer days workers are out sick due to
respiratory symptoms each year
- approximately 5,400 fewer school absences each year
- Reduced mercury emissions would reduce exposure to mercury through
consumption of contaminated fish, resulting in additional, unquantified
benefits to those who eat fish from Arkansas' lakes and rivers.
Help Maintain Health-Based Air Quality Standards
- All counties in Arkansas currently meet the fine particle standard;
all but two counties in Arkansas currently meet the 8-hour ozone
standard. (See note 2)
- Pulaski and Crittenden counties (population approximately 400,000)
would be brought into attainment with the ozone standard under
existing programs by 2010.
- Clear Skies would further reduce concentrations of ozone and
fine particles in counties throughout Arkansas.
Clear Skies Environmental Benefits in Arkansas
Clear Skies Would Provide Substantial Environmental Benefits in
Arkansas
In comparison to existing programs,
- Visibility would improve perceptibly in northern Arkansas.
- The value of improved visibility for Arkansas residents
who visit National Parks and Wilderness areas throughout the
country would be $18 million each year by 2020.
- Sulfur deposition, a primary cause of acid rain, would decrease
by up to 30% across most of Arkansas, and up to 60% in some northeastern
areas of the state.
- Nitrogen deposition, another significant contributor to acid
rain, as well as a cause of damage in nitrogen-sensitive forests
and coastal waters, would decrease by up to 20%.
- Mercury deposition would decrease by 5-15% across much of the
state, and by 15-30% in some small areas.*
![Projected Changes in Sulfur Deposition with the Base Case in 2020 Compared to 2001.](../images/ar-im2.gif)
![Projected Changes in Sulfur Deposition with Clear Skies and the Base Case in 2020 Compared to 2001.](../images/ar-im3.gif)
*These results are based on modeling the Clear
Skies mercury cap without triggering the safety valve.
SO2 and NOx Emissions Reductions under Clear Skies
Emissions in Arkansas and surrounding states would decrease
considerably. These emission reductions would make it much easier
for Arkansas to maintain compliance with the national air quality
standards. |
![Projected SO2 Emissions from Power Plants with the Base Case and Clear Skies (2020) - South](../images/fl-im2.gif)
![Projected NOx Emissions from Power Plants with the Base Case and Clear Skies (2020) - South](../images/fl-im3.gif)
Note:
The base case in IPM includes Title IV, the NOx SIP Call, NSR settlements,
and state-specific caps in CT, MA, MO, NC, NH, TX, and WI. It does
not include mercury MACT in 2007 or any other potential future regulations
to implement the current ambient air quality standards or other
parts of the Clean Air Act. Base case emissions in 2020 will likely
be lower due to state and federal regulatory actions that have not
yet been promulgated. Emissions projected for new units in 2020
are not reflected.
Electricity Generation in Arkansas under Clear Skies
Current and Projected Generation by Fuel Type
in Arkansas under Clear Skies (GWh) |
- Arkansas's electricity growth is projected to be met
by increases in gas-fired and coal-fired generation.
Clear Skies does not significantly alter this projection.
- Electricity from coal-fired generation will increase
by 13% from 1999 to 2020.
|
|
![Current and Projected Generation by Fuel Type in Arkansas under Clear Skies (GWh)](../images/ar-im4.gif) |
- Arkansas's sources are projected to reduce their emissions
through the installation of emission controls, rather than
through a switch from coal to natural gas.
- In 2010, 33% of Arkansas's coal-fired generation is projected
to come from units with advanced SO2 and/or NOx control
equipment that also substantially reduce mercury emissions;
in 2020, the percentage is projected to increase to 100%.
- No coal-fired units in Arkansas are projected to be removed
from operation as a result of Clear Skies.
|
![Current and Projected Coal Production for Electricity Generation](../images/me_im5.gif)
Emission Controls in Arkansas under Clear Skies
Under Clear Skies by 2020...
- 100% of coal-fired capacity would install SCR
- 100% would install scrubbers
|
|
The major generation companies in Arkansas include:
- Entergy Arkansas, Inc.
- Southwestern Electric Power Co.
- Arkansas Electric Cooperative Corp
Total coal-fired capacity in Arkansas is projected
to be 3,790 MW in 2010.
|
|
Units in Arkansas Projected to Be Retrofitted Due to Clear Skies
by 2020
FLINT CREEK |
1 |
Scrubber*/ SCR* |
INDEPENDENCE |
1 |
Scrubber/ SCR |
INDEPENDENCE |
2 |
Scrubber/ SCR |
WHITE BLUFF |
1 |
Scrubber*/ SCR* |
WHITE BLUFF |
2 |
Scrubber/ SCR |
*Retrofit was installed under Clear Skies by
2010
Note:
Retrofits and total coal-fired capacity apply to coal units greater
than 25 MW.
Electricity Prices in Arkansas under Clear Skies
- With or without Clear Skies, retail prices in the North
American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) SERC region
(the electricity supply region that contains Arkansas) are
projected to decrease between 2005 and 2020.
- With Clear Skies, retail prices are projected to be approximately
0.7 - 2.8% higher between 2005 and 2020 than in the absence
of the legislation.
|
![NERC](../images/vtnerc.gif)
![Projected Retail Electricity Prices in Arkansas under the Base Case and Clear Skies (2005-2020)](../images/ar-im5.gif)
In 2000, the average retail electricity price
in Arkansas was approximately 5.8 cents/kWh, which was below
the average national retail price of approximately 6.7 cents/kWh. |
Note:
The base case using IPM includes Title IV, the NOx SIP Call, NSR
settlements, and state-specific caps in CT, MA, MO, NC, NH, TX,
and WI. It does not include mercury MACT in 2007 or any other potential
future regulations to implement the current ambient air quality
standards or other parts of the Clean Air Act. Base case emissions
in 2020 will likely be lower due to state and federal regulatory
actions that have not yet been promulgated.
Costs and Benefits in Arkansas under Clear Skies
Benefits Outweigh the Costs
Clear Skies....
- Guarantees significant emissions reductions - beginning
years before full implementation
- Uses a proven and flexible market-based approach with
incentives for innovation
- Increases certainty across the board for industry, regulators,
and consumers
|
- In Arkansas, Clear Skies is projected to cost approximately
$162 million annually by 2020 while providing health benefits
totaling approximately $1.7 billion annually.
- The increases in production costs under Clear Skies represent
only a small percentage of total retail electricity sales revenue
in Arkansas.
- Retail electricity sales revenue in Arkansas was almost $2.4
billion in 2000.
- Adjusting these sales revenues by the same growth rate used
for the modeling of costs would result in revenues of over $3.7
billion annually in 2020.
- Nationwide, the projected annual costs of Clear Skies (in $1999)
are $4.3 billion in 2010 and $6.3 billion in 2020; the nationwide
benefits of Clear Skies are expected to be over $113 billion annually
by 2020.
- An alternate estimate projects annual health benefits totaling
$23 billion.
Note:
Costs include capital costs, fuel, and other operation and maintenance
costs (both fixed and variable) associated with the achievement of
the emissions caps in the legislation (for example, the installation
and operation of pollution controls). These state-level production
costs are estimates; they do not account for the costs associated
with the transfer of electricity across regions, nor the costs or
savings that could be associated with allowance movement between sources.
Notes on EPA's Analysis
- The information presented in this analysis reflects EPA's modeling
of the Clear Skies Act of 2003.
- EPA has updated this information to reflect modifications:
- Changes included in the Clear Skies Act of 2003.
- Revisions to the Base Case to reflect newly promulgated
rules at the state and federal level since the initial analysis
was undertaken.
- The Clear Skies modeling results presented include the safety
valve feature
- This analysis compares new programs to a Base Case (Existing
Control Programs), which is typical when calculating costs and
benefits of Agency rulemakings.
- The Base Case reflects implementation of current control programs
only:
- Does not include yet-to-be developed regulations such
as those to implement the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.
- The EPA Base Case for power sector modeling includes:
- Title IV, the NOx SIP Call, NSR settlements, and state-specific
caps in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Hampshire,
North Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin finalized before March
2003.
- For air quality modeling, the Base Case also includes federal
and state control programs, as well as the Tier II, Heavy Duty
Diesel, and Nonroad Diesel rules.
State information based on EPA's modeling of the Clear
Skies Act of 2002 is presented here for archival reasons.
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1. An alternative methodology
for calculating health-related benefits projects approximately 100
premature deaths prevented and $310 million in health benefits each
year in Arkansas by 2020.
2. Based on 1999-2001 data of
counties with monitors that have three years of complete data.
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