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Predicting Population Extirpation in the Cerulean Warbler

Table 1.  Reconstructed time series of regional abundance for the Cerulean Warbler in the United States.

YEAR BCR29 BCR28 BCR25 BCR24 BCR23 BCR22 BCR13 Survey-wide
1966 2879.0 985830.2 154114.9 174414.7 37550.6 37860.6 49395.9 1365935.6
1967 3327.9 879475.3 147598.8 171807.2 37110.5 27281.1 48662.3 1223530.7
1968 3098.7 997195.3 137555.6 166006.3 36227.1 25813.8 47311.3 1325883.0
1969 2822.8 986090.8 72095.6 159501.9 32179.6 40497.4 46408.4 1283967.3
1970 2644.2 1064193.6 68419.1 152099.8 31577.4 21540.4 45888.4 1331935.5
1971 2469.5 956771.8 68090.3 144636.3 29615.9 19486.8 44525.3 1213042.9
1972 2659.8 924887.1 59242.8 141520.1 27330.5 18217.1 43559.7 1172557.9
1973 2465.2 876192.7 39724.3 132024.6 26487.8 18003.2 41782.9 1103628.5
1974 2354.5 787737.2 32670.2 128507.2 24350.9 16843.7 38711.6 1004883.6
1975 2401.9 738949.8 27986.4 124758.7 23994.2 14831.0 37011.4 944715.5
1976 2316.3 863952.7 23066.4 120960.6 23626.6 13566.3 36201.7 1058190.6
1977 2487.5 716010.8 19013.3 117478.4 23509.4 12680.9 34912.6 908093.4
1978 2232.9 619877.4 18122.6 110401.3 20054.2 11633.4 33121.7 799484.4
1979 2355.4 675108.8 13510.5 106411.0 19084.4 17823.8 33244.1 851653.3
1980 2243.2 591633.9 11286.6 106045.0 18335.7 11191.8 33112.5 764264.2
1981 2097.6 607967.9 9451.3 100003.2 18112.1 9173.7 31181.3 767281.6
1982 2142.2 514101.2 7912.0 98709.8 18767.2 11337.9 31414.9 678256.0
1983 2274.0 627813.7 6635.7 93913.2 16634.4 10657.3 28059.6 775552.5
1984 2775.1 546110.3 5499.8 90093.9 14599.7 8556.8 27642.2 690340.1
1985 2092.1 569129.6 4639.0 88321.3 14538.9 7784.7 26836.0 705632.9
1986 2123.5 530863.2 3852.9 85798.2 13850.6 9252.0 26646.5 666951.6
1987 2342.2 510878.5 3840.9 80922.0 13242.4 6672.5 27216.8 639460.5
1988 1936.9 520344.1 2673.7 81160.0 13487.8 14132.2 26941.7 654750.1
1989 2248.2 496513.4 2190.1 76895.2 12861.1 9056.7 25982.2 621192.1
1990 2233.5 506646.0 2177.5 77657.9 12022.5 13909.6 24076.8 633009.4
1991 1975.7 474933.2 1542.3 70944.1 11612.2 5973.3 25379.8 590704.6
1992 1957.7 467387.9 1285.3 69713.0 10142.6 5632.8 24910.4 577046.7
1993 1975.7 432442.4 1075.8 71090.1 10292.4 5283.6 27822.2 549666.5
1994 2215.0 408693.9 893.7 67941.7 9613.4 4806.5 26078.1 524316.8
1995 1990 445174 900 64542 9854 4664 23619 560000
1996 1940.0 489921.9 621.7 62982.7 9930.8 4467.3 22989.7 590341.3
1997 2156.7 429632.4 515.3 62657.4 9369.0 3678.8 25680.8 540079.0
1998 1932.3 369321.6 431.6 59142.6 8203.8 5407.4 22189.0 466786.7
1999 1889.0 317250.2 359.6 57930.0 8078.5 3311.5 21956.6 419557.9
2000 1835.7 318387.1 302.2 56243.3 7784.5 3114.8 21310.2 412438.0
2001 1838.5 313830.0 247.5 54460.4 7878.1 3082.9 20920.8 406499.6
2002 2167.3 318073.7 207.7 52709.9 7253.6 3123.4 21728.5 409745.3
2003 2194.4 357751.7 171.6 53636.4 6971.5 2849.4 21948.3 451212.6
2004 2150.6 328832.7 142.3 49439.4 7503.7 2670.0 22533.0 417685.1
2005 1915.4 296880.4 117.5 50754.1 7385.6 2663.6 24043.8 390954.4

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