AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 320 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2000 CURRENTLY... SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH HAS MOVED WEST SOME SINCE MORNING AS EXPECTED AND INDICATED BY PREVIOUS RUC RUN...AND AS OF 3 PM HAD JUST MOVED PAST DRY TORTUGAS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PENINSULA. C-MAN SITES ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF WERE NOW RUNNING ESE 14-17 KT SUSTAINED GUSTS TO 20 KT (EXCEPT LONG KEY WAS NOW RUNNING LOWER SPEEDS THAN EARLIER). DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH OVER THE AREA...IN THE LOWER 70S. THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FORMED OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND SHOULD NOT BE STEERED TOWARD THE KEYS OR TOWARD FLORIDA BAY SINCE DEEP FLOW SURFACE TO 10 THSD FT IS FROM THE SE TO S...AND IS SW ABOVE 10 THSD FT. ON THE OTHER HAND... A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW AND THESE MAY APPROACH THE KEYS...BUT THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF ANY AT THIS TIME. THICK CLOUDS OVER AND SE OF THE MID AND UPPER KEYS HAVE THINNED SOME...STILL SHOWING CEILINGS 8 THSD FT OR SO IN THIS AREA. RADAR SEEMS TO HAVE FEW SHOWERS IN THE CLOUDED AREA...ALTHOUGH MAJOR AMOUNT OF CHAFF TODAY OBSCURES THE RADAR SOMEWHAT. FORECASTS... THE MODELS AGREE ON THE SOUTHERN SHIFT IN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS...BRINGING THE RIDGE SOUTH TO ABOUT LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE AVN SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE CLOSER TO CURRENT OBSERVED WINDS OVER MARINE AREAS...SO AS IS TYPICAL I WILL LEAD TOWARD THE AVN WIND SPEEDS FOR COASTAL MARINE FORECASTS. THERE IS ONLY ABOUT A 5 KNOT DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS...WITH ETA BEING THE LOWEST. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH BUT STILL REMAINING NORTH OF THE KEYS...A HUMID SE FLOW WILL PERSIST AT LOWER LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE 70S...BUT SPEEDS MAY BE LIGHTER ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR THEN...APPEARS TO BE THE MOVEMENT AND UVV FIELDS IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 500-300 MB. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY IDENTIFIED AS A WEAK 300 MB LOW OVER LOUISIANA...BUT MODELS INDICATE IT SHOULD GET IN PHASE WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THE AVN PROMOTES SOME UVV...AND QUITE A BIT OF 200 MB DIVERGENCE OVER THE KEYS WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BY END OF DAY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AVN ALSO IS WETTER THAN THE ETA. STILL... UVV FIELDS OVER THE KEYS ARE NOT SO GREAT AS AREAS TO OUR NORTH... SO WHILE I WILL LEAN TO THE HIGHER AVN-MOS POPS...I THINK 40 PCT FOR WEDNESDAY IS ENOUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE PAST BEFORE DAY IS OVER WEDNESDAY..BUT I WON'T MENTION CLEARING YET AS IT IS TOO FAR INTO FUTURE FOR TIMING TO BE CERTAIN. ALSO...WITH LIFTED INDEX MINIMUM PATTERN FOLLOWING SE OVER THE GULF AND PASSING OVER THE KEYS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...I WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THERE ARE NO ARGUMENTS WITH ANY MOS TEMPS. PRELIM TEMPS/POPS... EYW BE 076/085 075/085 074 2234= .EYW...NONE. CLB fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 940 AM EDT MON MAY 8 2000 CURRENTLY... SURFACE PRESSURE AND WIND ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...SSW TO BETWEEN KEY WEST AND DRY TORTUGAS. SATELLITE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS STILL LINGERING SE OF THE MIDDLE KEYS AS WELL AS OVER THE UPPER KEYS AND ALSO TO THEIR SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THESE CLOUDED AREAS...WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. C-MAN SITES HAVE REPORTED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND THE PAST HOUR... TO NEAR 15 KNOTS EXCEPT AT DRY TORTUGAS WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 12Z SOUNDING 1 THSD FT WINDS AT KEY WEST MEASURED ESE AT 15 KT...SIMILAR TO CURRENT 88D WIND PROFILE. A MERCHANT VESSEL AT 12Z IN THE STRAITS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS REPORTED WIND E 17 KT AND SEAS 5 FT. FIRST PERIOD FORECASTS... THE LATEST RUC INDICATES THAT THE INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD MOVE WEST TODAY...BUT ITS SURFACE WIND FIELD TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS A BIT LOW ON SPEEDS GIVEN THE 12Z-13Z VERIFYING TIMES. AVN HAD INDICATED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH VERSUS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN THIS TREND...I MAY BOOST COASTAL MARINE WINDS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS FOR KEYS PROPER AND STRAITS... WHERE FLORIDA BAY AND OFFSHORE MAINLAND MONROE SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH AXIS. FOR THE PUBLIC ZONES...AN UPDATE WILL BE MADE SHORTLY BEFORE NOON TO TAKE OUT MORNING-AFTERNOON TRANSITIONAL WORDING. THE 12Z KEY WEST SOUNDING IS A BIT WETTER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH SATELLITE SHOWING MID AND UPPER KEYS STILL NEAR AND THREATENED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. IF 88D DOES NOT SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWERS BY 1130 AM..I MAY KEEP A MENTION OF A BIT HIGHER POPS FOR MID AND UPPER KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. .EYW...NONE. CLB fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 947 AM EDT MON MAY 8 2000 WILL ADJUST GULF COAST COASTAL ZONES A LITTLE AS A SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST BUT NO CHANGE ELSEWHERE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AT WEAK WAVE CAUGHT IN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ALONG FLA SE COAST WITH ACTIVITY IN FLA STRAITS AND NE PALM BEACH COUNTY. RUC PROGS AND SATELLITE FORECAST AND VERIFY RESPECTIVELY DRIER AIR E OF SYSTEM AND UPPER RAOB FROM MYNN BEARS THIS OUT TO SOME EXTENT. ZFP PACKAGE MAINLY FOR E COAST TO BE REWORDED AS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY W OF THE COASTAL AREAS INLAND. STILL HAVE CAP AROUND 700 MB BUT NEED JUST THE MID 80S TO POSSIBLY BREAK CAP AND POPS INLAND AND IN W SEEMS OK AND A STRAY TSTM NOT IMPOSSIBLE. .MIA...NONE. fl SOUTHWEST IDAHO/SOUTHEAST OREGON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO 900 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2000 THERE IS STILL ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT IT IS RAPIDLY DECREASING. IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT WAVE OFF THE OREGON COAST WITH CLOUD SHIELD BETWEEN 130W AND THE COAST. EXTRAPOLATION CONFIRMS TIMING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO EASTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WESTERN IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY. LATEST RUC AND MESOETA MODELS BRING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL IDAHO...WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST NORTH OF THE JET AXIS THAT IS FORECAST FROM JUST NORTH OF BNO TO JUST SOUTH OF MYL MID DAY TUESDAY. THIS ALSO REASONABLE IN LIGHT OF JET STREAK THAT IS SHOWING AROUND 43N OFFSHORE. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THE ABOVE SCENARIO WELL. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GET RID OF THE PAST EVENINGS WEATHER OTHERWISE NO CHANGES NECESSARY. JANNUZZI .BOI...NONE. id AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 730 AM EDT MON MAY 8 2000 ...HEAT AND HEAVY CONVECTION SHUD GIVE WAY TO CHILLY OCEAN ASSISTED OCCLUSION WEDNESDAY... MODELS: RELYING HEAVILY AGAIN ON AVN SFC POSITS ALONG WITH 12Z/7 ECMWF THRU 72HRS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...LEAN HEAVILY ON MRF AND NOT YET BUYING THE ECMWF FOR MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND. PROBLEMS OF THE DAY: BACKDOOR CF...HEAVY CONVECTION AND HEAT. 1) AFTER HOPEFULLY REAPPRECIATING THE STRENGTH OF SPRINGTIME BACKDOOR OCCURRENCE (SAT 5/6 WHERE BOS WAS AOB 59F ALL DAY)... AND HOW THE ETA/NGM COULD NOT HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE COOLING IN THEIR BL TEMPS AND BELIEF THAT THE AVN HAS BEEN ON THE WHOLE OUTPERFORMING THE ETA ON SFC POSITS THIS WEEK OF SHIFTS IN OUR FCST AREA...FCSTD TREND TO COLD IN BOS AND WAY UNDER GUIDANCE AT BOS TUE/WED PER AVN. ONCE THE BACKDOOR PASSES..DO NOT BLV IT CAN MOVE N OF ITS NEW PSN WITHOUT BL WIND EXCEEDING 22 KTS. THEREFORE...THE WED LOW WILL PROBABLY BE OCCLUDED AS IT COMES THRU NEW ENGLAND WITH RATHER CHILLY NE-ESE FLOW ACRS ALL OF OUR FA. THIS IS A MAJOR DEPARTURE FROM THE 06Z ETA WHICH BLOWS THE HEAT BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A VENGEANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON... POTENTIALLY HOTTER THAN YDY AND CERTAINLY HOTTER THAN TODAY. 2) SVR AND TSTMS: NO SPS ISSUED DUE TO AONLY A FEW REPORTS EXPECTED BUT SKYWARN HAS BEEN ALERTED TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF TRW+ AND CHC HAIL WITH GUST 40KTS. SHUD SEE ISO 2.5-3 INCHES IN 90 MIN PRD SOMEWHERE BTWN RTE 2 IN NORTHERN SWD INTO N CT AND N RI... BORDERED BY GREENFIELD...AYE-OWD-TAN-PVD-HFD-TO E SLOPES BERKS 18-23Z TDY. BLV THIS A GOOD DAY FOR A HANDFUL OF REPORTS 1 INCH HAIL AND/OR GUSTS 40-50 KTS. PLS SEE UPCOMING UPDATED SPC TEXT. WE HAVE COORD WITH SPC ON SVR THREAT. PW ALMOST 1.5" TDY! CELLS DRIFT OUT 300 AT 20 KTS. TUES AFTN: ETA SOUNDINGS HAVE DOUBLE THE WIND AT 600 MB UP TO 47 KTS AND BLV THAT SLIGHT RISK SVR NEEDS TO B CONSIDERED FOR THE CT RVR VLY REGION (OCEAN LIKELY A COOLENT RETARDENT RI AND ORH HILLS EWD INTO S NH). PW SLIGHTLY LESS (1.3) BUT GULLY WASHERS APPEAR LIKELY A POSSIBLITY...POSSIBLY AIDED BY UPSLOPE RI HILLS BUT MORE LIKELY CT RVR VLY. CELL MVMT ABT 2830? 3) HEAT: SINCE WE HAVE A QUICK START AND A WELL DEFINED NW FLOW AT 12Z WE EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH BTWN 83-87 IN BOS ARD 11 AM THEN SEABRZ TO START A SLOW COOLING PROCESS FM QUINCY NWD STARTING BTWN 15-17Z. IF FOR SOME REASON THE SEABRZ ONSET IS DELAYED ..BOS CUD HIT 90...BUT EXPECT THE 90F TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE INTERIOR SUBURBS ABT 10MI INLAND. ONE NOTE ON THE COOLING...IT WILL BE A SLOWER PROCESS THAN USUAL SINCE BL WARMTH IS BEING CARRIED SEAWARD AT LEAST 5 OR 10 MI TIL ABT 15Z. A WITNESS TO THIS IS THE IOSN3 CMAN TEMP OF 70F AT 11Z! BOS BUOY ARD 15-20 MI OUT IS AT 57F. HEAT LOW AND DVLPG PRES FALL CENTROID IN THE INTERIOR OF MA WILL ACCELERATE ELY WIND MID AFTN AND AND WITH SFC TDS OVER THE WATER ALREADY IN THE 50S AND ETA SFC/ 1000 MB MARKEDLY RISING THIS EVE...EXPECT LOW CLOUD AND FOG TO SPREAD ASHORE WITH TEMP IN BOS DOWN TO 57 BY 22Z. BACK TO THE HEAT: NEAR RECORD TO BOS NOT GUARENTEED...RECORD XPCTD AT BDL AND RECORD/NEAR RECORD AT PVD. W SFC WIND AND M/SUNNY ARE THE DRIVERS...IF SEA BREEZES HOLD OFF PAST NOON...THEN WE/RE IN FOR RECORDS AT BOS/PVD. TODAYS MAX TEMP RERS ARE BOS 87-1964 XPCT WITHIN 2F BDL 90-1936 XPCT TO EXCEED PVD 88-1964 XPCT TO EQUAL OR EXCEED ORH 90-1936 BLUE HILL 87-1964 TODAYS CALENDER RER MIN: MAY HAVE A RECORD WARM MIN AT BDL 65 -1930 OTRW BLV OCEAN AFFECTS MINS BY MIDNIGHT TNGT ATT OTHER 3 PRIME RER SITES. RISK OF 90 IN THIS HEAT EPISODE IS PROBABLY DONE AFTER TDY BASED ON RECENT AVN MODEL TRENDS ALTHOUGH BDL HAS A CHC EITHER TUE OR WED BUT DOUBT IT. PLS NOTE 06Z ETA BLOWS 90+ BACK THROUGHOUT SNE TUESDAY...WE DISAGREE BASED ON AVN AND COLD SST/TIME OF YEAR TENDENCIES AND THE FLAT WLY 5H FLOW. QPF/QPS COORD WITH HPC/NERFC. POINT RFALL OF 3" IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN OUR FA AND OUR BASIN AMTS OF 3/4 INCH MAY B A BIT HIGH AND PATH OF HEAVIEST MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT. WE FOCUSED JUST AHD OF WSHIFT AS PROGGED BY THE 09Z RUC/ 00Z AVN. YDY: RERBDL WAS ISSUED FOR YDY. SCT BRF HEAVY SHWRS AND TSTMS ROAMED EWD ACRS THE REGION ROUGHLY 19Z-01Z WITH ISO G ARD 30 KTS. YDYS WDSPRD 90S WERE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR AND FOR SPECIFIC SITES THE LAST PRIOR 90 IN 1999 WAS BOS AUG 17 BDL SEP 3 PVD AUG 1 LR: AFTER COOL DOWN LATE THIS WK TENTATIVELY BLV THERE IS HOPE FOR AT LEAST A DAY OF ABV NORMAL WARMTH RETURNING SNE SOMETIME MOTHERS DAY WKND AND 00Z/8 MRF BACKS IT UP. SPEAKING OF LR... JUST TO REITERATE THE MONTHLY CLASSIFICATION CRITERIA GUIDELINES FOR THE 6-10 MEANS IN THE EONUS IN BOS/BDL FOR MAY (THEY VARY BY MONTH AND SITE)... TEMPS: MB MEANS A 5 DAY AVG MORE THAN -5 BLO NORM B -5 TO -1 N -1 TO +1 A >1 TO 5 MA >+5 QPF: BOS BLO < 0.03 BDL BLO <0.05 NORM 0.03 TO 0.15 NORM 0.05 TO 0.18 ABV > 0.15 ABV >0.18 .BOX...NONE. DRAG ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 230 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2000 KGRR-88D SHOWS A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AREA OF RAIN OVER NRN LAKE MI. THE CWA IS DRY ATTM. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME CU. BUT ENOUGH SUN HAS MADE IT THROUGH TO SEND TEMPS INTO THE 80S. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS SOUTH WINDS HAVE ADVECTED IN DWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SRN LWR. ALL OF THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES TODAY. A LOW MOVG NE FROM NRN WI INTO THE WRN UP WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THRU WRN LWR TONIGHT. FURTHER SFC HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A LOT OF ENERGY FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FCST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CAP THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL ERODE BY 22Z-23Z. LOOK FOR TSRA TO FIRE AROUND THAT TIME...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SOME OF THOSE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. UPR JET PLACEMENT WILL PROVIDE GOOD UVV/S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY AROUND 12Z AND THEN HANG UP IN EXTREME SE LWR ON TUE. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND MOVG NE INTO NRN IN BY TUE AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVR AN INCH AND A HALF... THIS LOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A LOT OR RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS ALSO SHOW A VERY STRONG UPR/LWR JET COUPLET WHICH WILL ENHANCE UVV/S. AS FOR TIMING... CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS POINT TOWARD THE AFTERNOON FOR THE RAIN TO DEVELOP. WILL LIKELY GO DRY IN THE MORNING. WILL INCLUDE RAIN ON TUE NIGHT BUT WILL END IT LATE AS THE LOW MOVES INTO ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE SOME SUN. WILL GO DECREASING CLOUDS. WILL USE A FAN/FWC BLEND FOR TEMPS. WF EXTENDED FORECAST TROUGH WILL MOVE THRU TUE WITH SFC HIGH PRESS BUILDING IN TUE NIGHT AND WED. 500MB RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND PASSAGE OF TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP ONLY A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES PUSHING INTO RIDGE. LOTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THE GULF REMAINS OPEN AND THE MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANY KIND OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. ON THUR THE SFC HIGH SLIDES E OF MICHIGAN WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING PCPN DVLPG OFF TO OUR NW. THIS PCPN WL JUST MISS THE CWA OFF TO OUR NW ON THUR. ANOTHER CDFNT WL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON FRI BRINGING MORE SHWRS AND TSTMS. WILL GO WITH A DRY FCST FOR SATURDAY BUT THE CDFNT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON FRI CUD COME BACK AS A WRMFNT ON SAT BRINGING WITH IT A CHC OF TSTMS. WL HAVE TO WATCH. ATTM LOOKS LIKE THE PCPN WL FORM LT SAT JUST TO OUR N. DGH *** THE NWS OFFICES IN MICHIGAN ARE CONDUCTING A USER SURVEY TO LEARN MORE ABOUT HOW THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD) IS UTILIZED. PLEASE COMPLETE THE SHORT QUESTIONNAIRE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRR/AFD.HTM THE FEEDBACK WE RECEIVE WILL HELP US PROVIDE A BETTER PRODUCT FOR YOU. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR IF YOU NEED A PAPER VERSION OF THE QUESTIONNAIRE PLEASE CONTACT RANDY GRAHAM AT (616) 949-0643 X766 *** .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1110 AM EDT MON MAY 8 2000 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CENTERED AROUND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE MCS WHICH DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND DIMINISHING. REGIONAL RADAR PLOTS SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. UPPER MICHIGAN CONVECTION FORMED IN AN AREA OF HIGH 850 MB DWPT AIR AROUND 10C...700/500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM AND IN AN AREA OF STRONG 700/500 MB DPVA IN ADVANCE OF THE VORT CENTER MOVING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IF FROM THE DIMINISHING MCS THE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. THE MODIFIED 12Z APX SOUNDING ALONG WITH RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS... SUGGEST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1200 J/KG AND 1400 J/KG AND LI'S BETWEEN -2 AND -5. THIS AFTERNOON 850 MB DWPTS WILL BE AROUND 12C TO 14C WITH THE BEST THTE RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY SUPPLIED BY STRONG DPVA IN ADVANCE OF A VORT CENTER MOVING OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN INTO EAST UPPER MICHIGAN. 700/500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6 TO 7 C/KM THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. .APX...NONE. SWR *** THE NWS IN MICHIGAN IS CONDUCTING A SURVEY TO LEARN MORE ABOUT HOW OUR CUSTOMERS USE THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD). PLEASE COMPLETE THIS SHORT SURVEY AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX/AFD_SURVEY.HTM. THE FEEDBACK WE RECEIVE WILL HELP US PROVIDE A BETTER PRODUCT FOR YOU. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR IF YOU NEED A PAPER VERSION OF THE SURVEY...CONTACT BRUCE SMITH AT (517) 731-3384 EXT 766. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION.*** mi SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 915 AM MDT MON MAY 8 2000 ...WILL UPDATE STATE AND TFX ZONE FORECASTS... WEAK S/WV TROF MOVING ACROSS SRN MT WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF CWA. AMS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH 12Z TFX RAOB LI NEAR -1. NEW ETA SHOWS SW AND E SLOPES REMAINING UNSTABLE THRU THIS AFTN...WITH WEAK CAPES...<200 J/KG. HOWEVER...CANADIAN SFC HI OVER SRN ALTA AT 14Z SENDING COOL DRY AMS OVER N CENTRAL ZONES. LATEST RUC SHOWS 700 S/WV TROF MOVING INTO CENTRAL MT BY 00Z WITH MID LVL MOIST. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ADDING AFTN CONVECTION TO N CENTRAL MT TODAY DUE TO COOLER LOW LVL AMS. WILL UPDATE SW ZONES TO INCLUDE ISOLATED TSTMS THIS AFTN. FOR TONIGHT AND TUE NEW ETA SHOWS NEG TILTED S/WV TROF MOVING THRU CWA...BUT MID LVL WINDS ARE WLY WITH LITTLE UVV INDICATED ALONG E SLOPES. WILL EXAMINE THIS CLOSELY THIS AFTN. EYSSAUTIER EXTENDED DISCUSSION...NEW UKMET AND MRF GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH TWO SHORT WAVES MOVING INTO GREAT BASIN. THE MAIN SHORT WAVES MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF MONTANA...BUT STATE REMAINING IN COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER IN 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD. ECMWF BRINGS IN FIRST SHORT WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ON FRIDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE MRF AND UKMET. OARD GTF BW 062/038 058/033 060 16145 CTB BW 058/034 052/029 056 16145 HLN EW 062/038 058/036 062 16255 BZN EW 058/038 055/033 058 16476 WEY WR 048/032 045/028 048 16688 DLN EW 056/040 054/035 057 16365 HVR BW 064/035 060/035 063 16136 LWT BW 058/034 056/034 058 16136 mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 920 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2000 CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHGS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVRNT PD. SAT/RADAR LOOPS SHOW SCTD SHWRS FORMING ATTM OVER LK ONT AHD OF MID LVL S/WV WITH SVRL ADDTNL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS UPSTREAM ACRS SRN ONT/GEORGIAN BAY/NRN LWR MI RGNS. LATEST MESO-ETA/RUC OUTPUT AGREES WELL WITH 12Z SUITE OF MODELS IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PCPN OVRNT ACRS OUR NRN ZNS AND EVEN PTS FURTHER N. CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION FROM LKLY FAR N TO CHC TWIN TIERS AND THEN DRY SERN SXNS LOOKS APPROPRIATE. ENUF INSTAB ON 00Z ALY/BUF SNDGS TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER DURG THE NGT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE LEFT UNTOUCHED. WRK ZNS SENT. FINALS WIBIS ARND 10. .BGM...NONE. JUREWICZ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 950 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2000 CAP CONTINUES TO HOLD TOUGH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT LOW LEVELS ARE STABILIZING AND 00Z RUC IS NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT STORMS IN SOUTH...WILL TREND BACK POPS A BIT SOUTH OF I40. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ..16.. .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT MON MAY 8 2000 LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED MAINLY TO TEND TO CURRENT CONDITIONS, SPECIFICALLY WINDS, AFTERNOON TEMPS, AND CLOUDS ACROSS W AND N PARTS OF AREA. COLD FRONT HAS MADE MUCH MORE PROGRESS INTO NW OK THIS MORNING THAN WE HAD ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH 12Z ETA STALLS IT NEAR ITS CURRENT POSITION, LATEST RUC CONTINUES IT WELL INTO SW/CENTRAL OK BY 00Z - A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY CONTINUING PRESSURE RISES BEHIND IT. WILL LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS IN W AND N ZONES AS COOLER SURFACE AIR HOLDS ITS GROUND. THICKER BAND OF AC/CI MOVING E ACROSS W AND N OK WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT LEAST FOR A TIME, FURTHER DELAYING ANY RECOVERY OF TEMPS. THE FARTHER S FRONTAL POSITION LIKELY WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT BEARING ON THE UPDATED T-STORM OUTLOOK SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z. PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS - CORRESPONDING TO CAP LEVEL THIS MORNING - SHOW AN OMINOUS COOLING UP N THRU EVENING, IMPLYING THAT THE CAP WILL WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROFILERS SHOWING MID-UPPER WESTERLIES CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS NW PARTS OF AREA AS NOSE OF STRONG UPPER JET CONTINUES WORKING E ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WEAKENING CAP, A MORE SOUTHERN FRONTAL POSITION, AND CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE ALL POINT TO A CONTINUED MODERATE RISK, BUT THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED S. WE WILL LAUNCH A SPECIAL SOUNDING AROUND 17Z, WITH PRELIM DATA HOPEFULLY AVAILABLE JUST BEFORE THE UPDATED OUTLOOK. WE MAY NEED TO DO ANOTHER FORECAST UPDATE AFTER EXAMINATION OF THE 18Z SOUNDING. WILL ALSO NEED TO ADDRESS HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL IN NCENTRAL/NE PARTS OF AREA. LATEST QPFS FROM HPC ARE WITHIN REASON AS UPPER FLOW MAY LEAD TO TRAINING OF ECHOES TONIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS, THREAT WILL INCLUDE NOT ONLY FLASH FLOODING IN AFFECTED AREAS, BUT POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING DUE IN PART TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS FROM A FEW DAYS AGO. .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 940 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2000 COMPLEX FRONT/MID-LEVEL VORT MAX/UPPER SPEED MAX SHOULD CONSPIRE TO KEEP MOST OF THE STORMINESS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A SHARP SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ARE STRONGER THAN PREDICTED BY THE MODELS 24 HOURS AGO. COUPLED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL HEAT ALONG THE DRY LINE...THE POTENTIAL NORMALLY WOULD BE RATHER HIGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS KEEPING THE LID ON IN NORTH TEXAS. STILL...THE SPEED MAX WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE RED RIVER BY MORNING (NEW ETA AND RUCII FORECASTS)...THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS GOOD IN THE NORTH. WE WILL KEEP CURRENT ISOLATED POPS IN OTHER ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...THE CAP QUICKLY DIMINISHES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...ACCORDING TO THE ETA...EVEN MORE SO THAN IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONVECTIVE EXPLOSION AND CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST AND MAYBE THE EAST. TIMING WILL BE WRONG (12Z-15Z) FOR MUCH CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE METROPLEX. .FTW...CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES ALL BUT SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. 26 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 722 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2000 GONNA REMOVE POPS FROM ALL BUT NW NC MTNS...WHERE SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS INDICATED ON VIS COULD STILL SQUICK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT CHANGE TO WORDING FRM TSTM TO SHRA. SAT/RADAR PLUS LATEST RUC SHOW NO INDICATION THAT ANYTHING MORE SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. UPDATE OUT SOON. .RNK. .VA...NONE. .NC...NONE. .WV...NONE. WHP va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 420 AM TUE MAY 9 2000 GOT A LATE START DUE TO EARLIER SVR WX...SO WL KEEP THIS VERY SHORT. CDFNT TO CLEAR THE AREA THIS EVE TO BE REPLACED BY A SFC RIDGE BY WED MORN. HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS IN THE MEANTIME IS THE CONCERN. ETA/AVN CONV-Q FIELDS SHOW GREATEST FORCING TO NORTH AND SOUTH BUT ENOUGH MARGINAL SUPPORT OVER STL CWFA TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING ALL DAY. ETA 300MB DVRG PATTERN WITH JET COUPLING ALSO SHOWS BEST SUPPORT TO NORTH AND SOUTH. NGM PLACES BEST 300MB DVRG OVER ECNTRL MO BY 12Z TODAY...BUT DOES NOT SEEM TO MATCH CURRENT RADAR PICS VERY WELL. EVEN SO...COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES MIGHT CAUSE PROBLEMS...SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED FFW FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS. RUC SFC-BASED LI OF -10 BY 18Z NOT TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH IS ALSO CAUSE FOR CAUTION. .STL...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. LENNING mo SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 200 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2000 MAIN CHALLENGE TO BE TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY. 700 MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTING CWFA WITH RAIN LINGERING TO THE SOUTHEAST. RUC INDICATES THIS SHOULD END BY 10Z SO WILL MOST LIKELY NOT MENTION ANY RAIN IN TODAYS FORECAST. NEXT TASK IS FOR SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WAVE TO DECREASE CLOUDS. HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE CUT AND DRIED PROCESS AS WEAK CAA AND DAMP GROUND WILL AID IN FORMING STRATOCUMULUS...SO BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SLIP TO THE EAST BRINGING WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH BY EVENING. EVEN WITH LITTLE WAA TIL LATE...SUNSHINE WILL HELP BEAT YESTERDAYS TEMPS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. WILL OPT FOR MORE CONSERVATIVE FWC GUIDANCE NUMBERS THOUGH. WAA BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED TONIGHT AND REALLY KICKS IN WEDNESDAY. EXPECT RAPID WARMUP POTENTIAL TO DISPLAY ITSELF AS MAIN JET AXIS SHIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. NOT SURE GUIDANCE IS ON TOP OF THIS ONE AS WOULD EXPECT TEMPS IN THE 80S ALL AREA BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH POSSIBILITY OF HIGH CLOUDS AS JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL AGAIN BE CONSERVATIVE. BUT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE WARM END OF GUIDANCE AND USE THE FAN NUMBERS. RAPID INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR REALLY DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE BY WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AVN PROGS 700 MB WAVE TO SPARK TSTMS OVER NEBR PANHANDLE AROUND 00Z THU. THESE COULD TRACK ACROSS CWFA INTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. BIG NEGATIVE AT THIS TIME IS THAT TREMENDOUS WARM WAA MAY LEAVE US CAPPED AS EXHIBITED BY PROGGED 700 MB TEMPS OF 14C BY 06Z THU. THIS WOULD PLACE CONVECTIVE FOCUS FARTHER NORTH. THUS...WILL KEEP WED NIGHT DEAD PERIOD DRY FOR NOW AND SEE WHAT 12Z RUN SHOWS. REST OF EXTENDED UP IN THE AIR. WILL GENERALLY LEAVE ALONE SAVE A LITTLE REWORDING HERE AND THERE. .GID...NONE. DROZD ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 1000 AM EDT TUE MAY 9 2000 HI PRES OVR THE AREA THRU THIS AFTN. LOOKING AT MRNG SOUNDINGS CAN SEE NOT AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS MON. ALSO MORE NW FLOW TO HELP CAP CONVECTION. ALSO LOOKING AT RUC SHOWS AN AREA OF NVA MOVG OVR THE AREA THIS AFTN WHICH SHD ALL TEND TO DECREASE CHC OF TSTMS. WL NOT MENTION ANY TSTMS IN ZONES FOR NOW. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OVR THE NW RDGS. WITH THE NW FLOW AND WARMING ALOFT WL GO WITH LOW 90S FOR MAXES. REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS GOOD. .LWX... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. JAB md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1005 AM EDT TUE MAY 9 2000 FORECAST ONCE AGAIN LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. AM HARD PRESSED TO FIND A TRIGGER FOR SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY UNTIL LATE THIS AFT. MODELS SHOW SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TODAY AS WELL AS BEST CONVERGENCE SIGNATURES OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS S MI...N OH AND NW PA. PRESENTLY THERE IS A CAP ACROSS THE FA ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ERODE LATER THIS AFT AS TEMPS APPROACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP. LATEST MESO-ETA AND RUC MODELS CONCUR...KEEPING THE FA DRY UNTIL AROUND 21 UTC OR AFTER. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC OF LATE AFT SHRA/TSRA. JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS AND WINDS WILL BE MADE. .BGM...NONE. SMF ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 210 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2000 ...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES... MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...THAT BEING NEAR ZONAL FLOW THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH SLOWLY STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR AREA INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BUILDING HEIGHTS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE ETA 850/2M TEMPS WHEN COMPARED TO THE NGM/FWC GUIDANCE. TONIGHT...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO THE BREEZY CATEGORY OF 15 TO 25 MPH. SOME QUESTIONS AROSE REGARDING FOG... ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RECENT RAINS AND WET GROUND. ETA BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. LATEST RUC THE SAME. RUCII VISIBILITY FORECASTS ALL P6SM SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT. ONLY SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT SO PARTLY CLOUDY LOOKS GOOD. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL OPT TO GO BELOW FWC GUIDANCE AS 2M ETA/AVN TEMPS AT LEAST 3 DEGREES COOLER. WILL WORD IT MIDDLE 40S WEST...45 TO 50 CENTRAL AND NORTH...WITH NEAR 50 FAR EAST. WEDNESDAY...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. 850 TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MODELS INDICATING VALUES OF +25C EAST TO +28C WEST. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE INTO AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID OR UPPER 80S. 2M ETA TEMPS AND FWC GUIDANCE SUPPORT THESE VALUES SO WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. STILL SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND (POSSIBLY WAVE CLOUD DEBRIS) SO MOSTLY SUNNY WILL SUFFICE. WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE WINDY CATEGORY AS INFORMAL STUDY SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE PRESSURE CONTOURS ACROSS THE CWA GREATER THAN FIVE WILL PUT US IN THE WINDY CATEGORY. FWC LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO I'LL GO WINDY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IT PROBABLY WONT MAKE MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY DRY AIR OVER OUR AREA. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE WILL WORD IT CLEAR. IT REMAINS RATHER WINDY OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GO NEAR FWC/ETA 2M GUIDANCE WITH MIDDLE 50S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE NEAR 60 LOOKS REASONABLE. THURSDAY...BIG QUESTIONS REGARDING AFTERNOON HIGHS. ETA/AVN 850 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE +28 TO +30C OVER THE AREA YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. 2M TEMPS ARE A BIT LOWER...AROUND 90 OR LOW 90S. EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR EAST WHERE KHLC HAS THE DRIEST AIR AND 2M TEMPS RANGING FROM 93F FROM THE AVN TO 98F FROM THE AVN. WILL BLEND THEM ALL AND GO WITH 90 TO 95. ELSEWHERE...WILL DO THE SAME. RECORD HIGH AT KITR IS 93 SO WILL WORD IT RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH. AS FAR AS ANY PRECIP...FRONT EDGES INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BUT MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LIMITED. 700 TEMPS ALSO PROGGED TO BE IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS SO CAP APPEARS TO HOLD OFF ANY CONVECTION. IN THE EXTENDED...FRIDAY HAS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER ZONAL/SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH APPEARS TO ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AS 500 VORT MAX ZIPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA. 700 TEMPS COOL SIGNIFICANTLY ELIMINATING THE CAP. THUS WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. 2M/850 TEMPS BOTH SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR 75...ALSO SUGGESTED BY FMR GUIDANCE. ON SATURDAY...APPEARS IT MAY BE A COOL MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. 2M TEMPS SUGGEST AROUND 40 WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. LEE TROUGH RE-DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH MAKES ITS MOVE EAST. A TAD WARMER TEMPS IN STORE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. 2M/850 TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. FINALLY... FOR SUNDAY...QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY REGARDING HIGHS. MODELS DO AGREE THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY AS LEE TROUGH INTENSIFIES. 2M/850 TEMPS OF +32/+30 RESPECTIVELY SUGGEST HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 THAN FMR GUIDANCE OF 79. WITH CLIMATOLOGY BEING SO HEAVILY FAVORED...WILL GO OVER GUIDANCE. AS FOR PRECIP...APPEARS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. .GLD...NONE. THEDE ks