AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 405 AM MST MON MAR 13 2006 SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...WESTERN TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST TODAY REPLACED BY A FAST MOVING RIDGE TUESDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE NAM WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST. SINCE MIDNIGHT A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW HAS OCCURRED FROM DOUGLAS PASS TO I-70 BETWEEN RIFLE AND GLENWOOD CANYON WITH AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THERE. RUC AND ETA12 INDICATE THIS TO BREAK DOWN THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE MESSY WITH CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL. JET AND ASSOCIATED CHANNELED VORT LIFT NE THRU THE CWA TODAY FOR A DIMINISHING OF POPS AND SNOWFALL IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE IS SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED HEAVY SNOWFALL. BUT OVERALL EXPECT THE MTN ZONES TO ONLY SEE ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS. THEREFORE HAVE LET THE HIGHLIGHTS END WITH THE MORNING FORECAST. TONIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM ADVECTION LIMIT SNOWFALL TO AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS INTO UTAH BY SUNRISE PASSING TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT: OPEN PACIFIC TROF WORKS INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH ASSOCIATED SFC TROF/COLD ADVECTION/NEXT ROUND OF SNOWFALL APPROACHING NE UTAH LATE. RAMEY .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... THE NAM AND GFS GIVE TWO DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WEDNESDAY/S SHORT WAVE. ELECTED NOT TO CHANGE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS UNTIL THE MODELS HAVE BETTER CONSENSUS. FOR THE THREE DAYS BEFORE THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TO A STRONGER SOLUTION. IN THAT RESPECT...THE NAM SEEMS OUT OF WHACK WITH THE GFS TREND BUT THE SLOWER TIMING MAY BE PREFERRED. THE BEST THREAT OF SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...BUT BRIEF SHOWERS MAY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WEST CENTRAL COLORADO VALLEYS AND MOAB. THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEYS LIKELY WILL STAY DRY. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH (NOT AS STRONG AS THIS PAST WEEKEND WEATHER MAKER) FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST...PLACING OUR FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AND TWO DRY DAYS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BUT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND...EXPECT AN INCREASING THREAT OF PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 GRIDS AS UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS HAVE ALREADY BEEN INTRODUCED. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .CO...NONE. .UT...NONE. && JOE/PF co FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 315 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .DISCUSSION...(700 TO 200 MB)...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE TROUGH WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NEAR THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD. TO THE SOUTH...A 590 DM PLUS 500 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS A STRONG AND ACTIVE 100 TO 130 KNOTS 250 MB JET EXTENDING FORM TEXAS TO OHIO. SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS LIE ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE WARM SOUTHWESTERN GULF ANTICYCLONE. IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS...A POTENT COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO EAST TEXAS FROM A 990 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO LONG ISLAND. TO THE SOUTH...LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS AT 12Z DEPICT A 1025 MB PLUS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS CONTINUES A TREND OF THE MODELS INITIALIZING A FEW MILLIBARS LOWER OVER THIS AREA..SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS LIE ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. .CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS. AS OF 100 PM...KEY WEST AND MIAMI ARE NOW DEVOID OF ANY SHOWERS ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS ARE AROUND 10 MPH. 10 METER WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE NOW SOUTHEAST NEAR 15 KNOTS...AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA BAY. .FORECAST...MID AND UPPER LEVELS(700 TO 200 MB)...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EJECT EASTWARD TO NORTHERN MAINE BY WEDNESDAY. THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TIME. VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE KEYS THROUGH TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME CIRRUC MOVING OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE KEYS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH IMPULSES PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WITHIN THE FLOW. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS WILL STILL BE DOMINATED/INFLUENCE BY THE 590 DM WESTERN CARIBBEAN ANTICYCLONE. IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS(SURFACE TO 700 MB)...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE LOW OVER WISCONSIN...ACCOMPANIED BY THE PREVIOUSLY POTENT EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE TO CENTRAL QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE. LACK OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE KEYS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WEAK RIDGING IS OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER 1025 MB HIGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS GEOGRIA AND THE CAROLINAS STATES BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ANOTHER UPSWING IN THE WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MONRING...BUT 12Z NAM AND GFS C-MAN GUIDANCE REMAINS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...WITH ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS LOOKING LIKELY. WILL HOLD WITH 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY ATTM ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA BAY. ANY BRIEF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO COME FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO APPROACH THE KEYS AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE GFS HAS TRENDED DOWN AGAIN WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THINK IT MAY WASH OUT ON ITS WAY DOWN THE PENINSULA. WILL KEEP WINDS EASTERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS...DUE TO GFS MODEL FLIP FLOPS...AS HAVE NOT BOUGHT INTO THE WINDS GOING NORTH YET. AND THE GRADIENT OR RIDGING BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS NOT REALLY THAT STRONG AS EARLIER RUNS. && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT WILL REMAIN HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. MUCH IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. MORE WIND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND CAUTION HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SETTLE DOWN AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE KMIA-KEYW ROUTE AND AT THE KEYW AND KMTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL HAVE THEIR BASES RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 KFT AGL...WHILE PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL CEILINGS 5-6 KFT OVER THE MAINLAND PORTION OF THE ROUTE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 110-140 DEGREES AT AROUND 10 KT...DECREASING TO BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 73/82/71/79/71 --/--/--/10/10 MARATHON 74/84/71/81/72 --/--/--/10/10 && .EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MR DATA ACQUISITION......SD fl WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 844 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .UPDATE...WATER VAPOR STLT AND RUC SHOW CIRRUS STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF COAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE. AT THE SURFACE...THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS LOCATES A RIDGE AXIS OVER NORTHERN FL...FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FEATURES STAY IN PLACE TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH... INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CWFA. THE MAJOR EFFECT THIS HAS IS SE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH AND SW IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS HANDLED...ALONG WITH SKY AND TEMPS...NICELY IN THE CURRENT ZONES AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED. && .MARINE...THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTH FL SHIFTS DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AT 15KT OR LESS. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE OUT AROUND 930 AM. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ RKR/09 fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 917 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED THE FORECAST TO END THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AT 9PM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM MARTIN COUNTY THROUGH BREATHITT COUNTY AND THEN CONTINUED SOUTHWEST THROUGH MCCREARY COUNTY. THIS LINE IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 11 PM. THE FRONT AT 9 PM EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...ACROSS EASTERN ROWAN COUNTY TO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND THE DEWPOINT WILL DRY SIGNIFICANTLY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 1 AM TONIGHT. WE DID NOT RECEIVE ANY REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 259 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT NOW INTO WESTERN KY AND WESTERN TN...AND FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z. LATEST RADAR...SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK TRENDS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED OVER WESTERN TN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY. 12Z NAM12 SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. BASED ON THE KJKL VAD WIND PROFILE THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE REMAINS STRONG WITH WINDS OF 25 KNOTS AT 2000 MSL TO 60 KNOTS AT 7000 MSL...BUT STILL FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. BEST LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF KY HOWEVER. 12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET OF 120 KNOTS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY. LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE LACK OF INSTABILITY...WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL FORCING. SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX STILL ZERO TO PLUS FOUR ACROSS EAST KY...BUT DESTABILIZATION OCCURING OVER WEST TN...BUT STILL ONLY DOWN TO -2. 18Z RUC FORECAST MAXIMUM CAPES 300 TO 400 AT 23Z TO 00Z SO STILL NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE. ALSO THERE APPEARS TO BE A VERY NARROW BAND OF DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 65 POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BWG REPORTING 67 AT 19Z. WILL GO WITH POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING. TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLER AIR MASS MOVES INTO AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS NOTED BY HPC...THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS WERE OUTLIERS AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT EASTERN KY LATE THIS WEEK. THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER WITH THE LOW AND WAS GIVEN CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT FOR THIS FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY JUST TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT THAN DEPICTED IN THE GFS...HAVE SKEWED POPS A BIT LATER THAN WHAT WAS IN THE 00Z MEX MOS. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT IS COMPLETELY FINISHED. STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING US FAIR BUT CHILLY WEATHER. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHAPING UP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN...AND HAVE USED A SMALL CHANCE ON MONDAY. 1135 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006 ..MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURING ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINT AT JKL HAS FALLEN FROM 54 TO 47. DEWPOINT AT LOZ IS ALREADY RECOVERING TO 53 AFTER DROPPING TO 49...AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 16Z DEWPOINTS OF 64 AT BWG AND 64 AT HOP. CURRENT WIND FIELDS REMAIN STRONG WITH 50 KNOT JET SHOWING UP ON JKL VAD WIND PROFILE. 0-3 KM HELICITY AT 12Z ILN SOUNDING WAS 662. HOWEVER...BASED ON JKL RADAR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH ACROSS EAST KY...BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 461 NAM FORECAST AT JKL AT 21Z. LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS THE INSTABILITY OR LACK THERE OFF. NONE THE LESS SEVERE THREAT REMAINS HIGH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAY/S GRIDS WITH FORECAST SUITE TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY. 513 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006 SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... ..MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF I 64...WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS EASTERN KENTUCKY. NORTH OF I 64 CIRRUS BLOWOFF HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROF DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...A 130 KNOT JET EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND A LOW LEVEL 850 MB JET OF 50 KNOTS PLUS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KY...SPC HAS PLACED EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE MODERATE RISK CATEGORY FOR TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LI/S AROUND MINUS 3 AND CAPES FROM 800 TO 1000 AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OVER 300. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED... DAMAGING WINDS ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AND HWO. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCH ATTM...HOWEVER FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. WINDS MAY BE A BIT PROBLEMATIC TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KY...AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START THE DAY. IF CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA A BIT LATER THAN EXPECTED...WINDS MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP WITH MIXING AND A 50 KT PLUS JET MOVING INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH BREEZY WORDING. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ON TUESDAY...AS THE MODELS CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS A BIT EARLY. THE BIG CHANGE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IS THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS ARE OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INTRODUCE A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER MET NUMBERS...EXCEPT FOR TONIGHT...WHEN THE MAV SEEMED TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOWS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JJ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 259 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .DISCUSSION... ...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING... SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT NOW INTO WESTERN KY AND WESTERN TN...AND FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z. LATEST RADAR...SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK TRENDS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS STRENGHTHENING AND BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED OVER WESTERN TN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY. 12Z NAM12 SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. BASED ON THE KJKL VAD WIND PROFILE THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE REMAINS STRONG WITH WINDS OF 25 KNOTS AT 2000 MSL TO 60 KNOTS AT 7000 MSL...BUT STILL FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. BEST LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF KY HOWEVER. 12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET OF 120 KNOTS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY. LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE LACK OF INSTABILITY...WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL FORCING. SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX STILL ZERO TO PLUS FOUR ACROSS EAST KY...BUT DESTABILIZATION OCCURING OVER WEST TN...BUT STILL ONLY DOWN TO -2. 18Z RUC FORECAST MAXIMUM CAPES 300 TO 400 AT 23Z TO 00Z SO STILL NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE. ALSO THERE APPEARS TO BE A VERY NARROW BAND OF DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 65 POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BWG REPORTING 67 AT 19Z. WILL GO WITH POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING. TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLER AIR MASS MOVES INTO AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS NOTED BY HPC...THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS WERE OUTLIERS AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT EASTERN KY LATE THIS WEEK. THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER WITH THE LOW AND WAS GIVEN CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT FOR THIS FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY JUST TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT THAN DEPICTED IN THE GFS...HAVE SKEWED POPS A BIT LATER THAN WHAT WAS IN THE 00Z MEX MOS. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT IS COMPLETELY FINISHED. STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING US FAIR BUT CHILLY WEATHER. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHAPING UP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN...AND HAVE USED A SMALL CHANCE ON MONDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1135 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006 ...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURING ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINT AT JKL HAS FALLEN FROM 54 TO 47. DEWPOINT AT LOZ IS ALREADY RECOVERING TO 53 AFTER DROPPING TO 49...AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 16Z DEWPOINTS OF 64 AT BWG AND 64 AT HOP. CURRENT WIND FIELDS REMAIN STRONG WITH 50 KNOT JET SHOWING UP ON JKL VAD WIND PROFILE. 0-3 KM HELICITY AT 12Z ILN SOUNDING WAS 662. HOWEVER...BASED ON JKL RADAR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH ACROSS EAST KY...BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 461 NAM FORECAST AT JKL AT 21Z. LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS THE INSTABILITY OR LACK THERE OFF. NONE THE LESS SEVERE THREAT REMAINS HIGH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAY/S GRIDS WITH FORECAST SUITE TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY. 513 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006 SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... ...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF I 64...WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS EASTERN KENTUCKY. NORTH OF I 64 CIRRUS BLOWOFF HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROF DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...A 130 KNOT JET EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND A LOW LEVEL 850 MB JET OF 50 KNOTS PLUS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KY...SPC HAS PLACED EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE MODERATE RISK CATEGORY FOR TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LI/S AROUND MINUS 3 AND CAPES FROM 800 TO 1000 AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OVER 300. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED... DAMAGING WINDS ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AND HWO. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCH ATTM...HOWEVER FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. WINDS MAY BE A BIT PROBLEMATIC TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KY...AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START THE DAY. IF CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA A BIT LATER THAN EXPECTED...WINDS MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP WITH MIXING AND A 50 KT PLUS JET MOVING INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH BREEZY WORDING. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ON TUESDAY...AS THE MODELS CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS A BIT EARLY. THE BIG CHANGE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IS THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS ARE OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INTRODUCE A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER MET NUMBERS...EXCEPT FOR TONIGHT...WHEN THE MAV SEEMED TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOWS. 1024 PM EST SUN MAR 12 2006 UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE AREA HAS CLEARED OUT PRETTY WELL WITH SOME PATCHES OF BROKEN MIDDLE CLOUD MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOG TO FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY ALSO HAVE SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. TOOK OUT THE POPS FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE THEM STARTING AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SQUALL LINE APPROACHES. THE 00 GMT NAM IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE SQUALL LINE. THE MAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED. SPC STILL HAS THE AREA UNDER MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE STRONG WINDS. THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF SPAWNING A TORNADO...HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH. THE TIMING OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE AS IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AT PEAK HEATING TIME. THE INSTABILITY IS NOT QUITE IDEAL...HOWEVER IS STILL GOOD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SEVERE WINDS. THERE WILL BE A LULL ONCE THE SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH AND THEN THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SBH/HAL ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1155 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .MORNING UPDATE... ZONES UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88 WHICH AFFECTS ALL EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST ZONES. MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE GRIDS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE EARLIER WATCH. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND THE EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE STORMS WILL REACH LEXINGTON AFTER 18Z. MORE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FIRST LINE MOVES THROUGH. THIS LINE WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SCHOLZ ...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL TODAY... .MESOSCALE/SHORT-TERM UPDATE... LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH MID MISS RIVER VALLEY AS OF 11 UTC...A FEW SCT CELLS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE INTO WRN KY. THIS TSRA IS MOVING INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS IT NEARS THE LMK CWA...MSAS SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES RANGE FROM NEAR 0C AT HNB TO +5C OVER THE BLUEGRASS...AND LATEST SDF ACARS SOUNDING AT 1010 UTC INDICATES THAT CAPPING INVERSION AT 675MB HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE HIGH SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS...SVR STORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS MORNING AS THIS LINE OF STORMS NEARS THE CWA. SCT CELLS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA AFTER 12- 13 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF HIGHEST POPS BY A COUPLE HOURS IN THE GRIDS...REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. CS && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 225 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)... CERTAINLY A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHARP UPPER WAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFT NE FROM THE MO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LMK CWA IS SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AS OF 07 UTC...WITH NO PCPN...IN FACT WE SWITCHED THE RADAR TO CLEAR-AIR MODE FOR A WHILE. 0515 UTC SDF ACARS SOUNDING SHOWS A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700MB...BUT WITH A SCREAMING LLJ OF 50KTS AT 2KFT AGL HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN TAFS THROUGH DAYBREAK. ONGOING LINEAR CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT OVER OK/MO/IL WITH A COUPLE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF IT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WORK EWD TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA (RUC/NAM) AND OBSERVED TRENDS...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD APPROACH LONGITUDE OF THE WABASH RIVER ROUGHLY 12 UTC. QUESTION IS HOW INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE BY DAYBREAK...CRAVEN SIG SVR PARAMETER FROM RUC DATA SUGGESTS A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND TO INTENSITY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BUT WITH SUCH A STRONG LLJ SVR THREAT MAY PERSIST THIS FAR E. NEW TORNADO WATCH RIGHT UP TO OUR WRN BORDER VALID UNTIL 13 UTC...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS THAT SCT-BKN DECAYING CONVECTION WILL CROSS INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...THEN PER LATEST NAM SVR CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AROUND 18 UTC AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA...ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION. AS NOTED IN NEW SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK... POTENTIAL IS THERE NOT ONLY FOR A SVR SQ LINE...BUT ALSO SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. FEEL THAT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISLTD TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG/N OF THE OHIO RIVER CLOSER TO SFC LOW AND WITHIN SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY. CONVECTION WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE E DURING THE AFTN HOURS AND SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00 UTC. WE ARE GOING TO LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH GOING IN CURRENT CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE ANY CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE PROGRESSIVE...1HR FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OVER WATCH AREA ARE VERY LOW (ON THE ORDER OF 0.5") SO RENEWED FLOODING WILL BE VERY QUICK TO TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH ANY NEW PRECIP. RAINFALL ANALYSIS INDICATING AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN LAST 7 DAYS OVER DUBOIS... PERRY...ORANGE...AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN SRN IND...YESTERDAY WE HAD A REPORT OF 7.5" FROM FRENCH LICK. AT LEAST 2-3" DURING THAT PERIOD N OF AN OHIO TO HARRISON/KY COUNTY LINE. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INDICATE GUST POTENTIAL TO NEAR 30KTS OVER THE CWA TODAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...AND 20-25KTS WITHIN COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT. THIS IS SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVELS BUT WILL DEFINITELY HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE A POOL OF COLD AIR STRATUS ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WE CAN SEE THESE CLOUDS NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO THIS SOLN SEEMS REASONABLE. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WARMEST READINGS WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF I-65 WHERE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT AHEAD...WHEN COMPARED TO THE MILD ONES WE'VE HAD OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. CS LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SUNDAY)... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... COLD TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SNOWS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. AS A SHARP COLD FRONT EXITS THE EAST COAST EARLY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING DISTINCTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALBEIT WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL RH FORECASTS SOME STATUS REMAINING EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP AROUND LOW MOISTURE FROM SYSTEM EXITING THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST...CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION. BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH FORECAST 925MB TEMPS RISING FROM -1 TO 4 FROM TUES TO WEDS AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDER OF THE TWO. PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS HINT AT SOMEWHAT OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE OR WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WEDNESDAY...SO TEMPERATURES MAY BE DISTINCTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THURSDAY... CLOUDS AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MUCH COLDER AIR STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ONTARIO DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS TROUGH AMPLIFIES...A RIDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A DISTINCT COOLDOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW MID MARCH NORMS. WITH THIS INFLUX OF DRIER AIR...DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP THROUGH SUNDAY. JSD .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ023- KYZ024-KYZ025-KYZ028-KYZ029-KYZ030-KYZ031-KYZ032-KYZ033- KYZ034-KYZ035-KYZ036-KYZ037-KYZ038-KYZ045. IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ076- INZ077-INZ078-INZ079-INZ083-INZ084-INZ089-INZ090-INZ091- INZ092. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 815 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .UPDATE... ZONES UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS. SCHOLZ ...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL TODAY... .MESOSCALE/SHORT-TERM UPDATE... LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH MID MISS RIVER VALLEY AS OF 11 UTC...A FEW SCT CELLS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE INTO WRN KY. THIS TSRA IS MOVING INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS IT NEARS THE LMK CWA...MSAS SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES RANGE FROM NEAR 0C AT HNB TO +5C OVER THE BLUEGRASS...AND LATEST SDF ACARS SOUNDING AT 1010 UTC INDICATES THAT CAPPING INVERSION AT 675MB HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE HIGH SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS...SVR STORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS MORNING AS THIS LINE OF STORMS NEARS THE CWA. SCT CELLS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA AFTER 12- 13 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF HIGHEST POPS BY A COUPLE HOURS IN THE GRIDS...REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. CS && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 225 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)... CERTAINLY A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHARP UPPER WAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFT NE FROM THE MO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LMK CWA IS SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AS OF 07 UTC...WITH NO PCPN...IN FACT WE SWITCHED THE RADAR TO CLEAR-AIR MODE FOR A WHILE. 0515 UTC SDF ACARS SOUNDING SHOWS A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700MB...BUT WITH A SCREAMING LLJ OF 50KTS AT 2KFT AGL HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN TAFS THROUGH DAYBREAK. ONGOING LINEAR CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT OVER OK/MO/IL WITH A COUPLE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF IT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WORK EWD TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA (RUC/NAM) AND OBSERVED TRENDS...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD APPROACH LONGITUDE OF THE WABASH RIVER ROUGHLY 12 UTC. QUESTION IS HOW INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE BY DAYBREAK...CRAVEN SIG SVR PARAMETER FROM RUC DATA SUGGESTS A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND TO INTENSITY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BUT WITH SUCH A STRONG LLJ SVR THREAT MAY PERSIST THIS FAR E. NEW TORNADO WATCH RIGHT UP TO OUR WRN BORDER VALID UNTIL 13 UTC...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS THAT SCT-BKN DECAYING CONVECTION WILL CROSS INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...THEN PER LATEST NAM SVR CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AROUND 18 UTC AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA...ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION. AS NOTED IN NEW SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK... POTENTIAL IS THERE NOT ONLY FOR A SVR SQ LINE...BUT ALSO SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. FEEL THAT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISLTD TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG/N OF THE OHIO RIVER CLOSER TO SFC LOW AND WITHIN SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY. CONVECTION WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE E DURING THE AFTN HOURS AND SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00 UTC. WE ARE GOING TO LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH GOING IN CURRENT CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE ANY CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE PROGRESSIVE...1HR FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OVER WATCH AREA ARE VERY LOW (ON THE ORDER OF 0.5") SO RENEWED FLOODING WILL BE VERY QUICK TO TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH ANY NEW PRECIP. RAINFALL ANALYSIS INDICATING AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN LAST 7 DAYS OVER DUBOIS... PERRY...ORANGE...AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN SRN IND...YESTERDAY WE HAD A REPORT OF 7.5" FROM FRENCH LICK. AT LEAST 2-3" DURING THAT PERIOD N OF AN OHIO TO HARRISON/KY COUNTY LINE. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INDICATE GUST POTENTIAL TO NEAR 30KTS OVER THE CWA TODAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...AND 20-25KTS WITHIN COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT. THIS IS SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVELS BUT WILL DEFINITELY HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE A POOL OF COLD AIR STRATUS ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WE CAN SEE THESE CLOUDS NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO THIS SOLN SEEMS REASONABLE. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WARMEST READINGS WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF I-65 WHERE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT AHEAD...WHEN COMPARED TO THE MILD ONES WE'VE HAD OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. CS LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SUNDAY)... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... COLD TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SNOWS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. AS A SHARP COLD FRONT EXITS THE EAST COAST EARLY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING DISTINCTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALBEIT WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL RH FORECASTS SOME STATUS REMAINING EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP AROUND LOW MOISTURE FROM SYSTEM EXITING THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST...CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION. BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH FORECAST 925MB TEMPS RISING FROM -1 TO 4 FROM TUES TO WEDS AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDER OF THE TWO. PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS HINT AT SOMEWHAT OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE OR WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WEDNESDAY...SO TEMPERATURES MAY BE DISTINCTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THURSDAY... CLOUDS AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MUCH COLDER AIR STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ONTARIO DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS TROUGH AMPLIFIES...A RIDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A DISTINCT COOLDOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW MID MARCH NORMS. WITH THIS INFLUX OF DRIER AIR...DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP THROUGH SUNDAY. JSD .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ023- KYZ024-KYZ025-KYZ028-KYZ029-KYZ030-KYZ031-KYZ032-KYZ033- KYZ034-KYZ035-KYZ036-KYZ037-KYZ038-KYZ045. IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ076- INZ077-INZ078-INZ079-INZ083-INZ084-INZ089-INZ090-INZ091- INZ092. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 614 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006 ...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL TODAY... .MESOSCALE/SHORT-TERM UPDATE... LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH MID MISS RIVER VALLEY AS OF 11 UTC...A FEW SCT CELLS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE INTO WRN KY. THIS TSRA IS MOVING INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS IT NEARS THE LMK CWA...MSAS SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES RANGE FROM NEAR 0C AT HNB TO +5C OVER THE BLUEGRASS...AND LATEST SDF ACARS SOUNDING AT 1010 UTC INDICATES THAT CAPPING INVERSION AT 675MB HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE HIGH SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS...SVR STORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS MORNING AS THIS LINE OF STORMS NEARS THE CWA. SCT CELLS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA AFTER 12- 13 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF HIGHEST POPS BY A COUPLE HOURS IN THE GRIDS...REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. CS && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 225 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)... CERTAINLY A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHARP UPPER WAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFT NE FROM THE MO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LMK CWA IS SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AS OF 07 UTC...WITH NO PCPN...IN FACT WE SWITCHED THE RADAR TO CLEAR-AIR MODE FOR A WHILE. 0515 UTC SDF ACARS SOUNDING SHOWS A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700MB...BUT WITH A SCREAMING LLJ OF 50KTS AT 2KFT AGL HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN TAFS THROUGH DAYBREAK. ONGOING LINEAR CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT OVER OK/MO/IL WITH A COUPLE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF IT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WORK EWD TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA (RUC/NAM) AND OBSERVED TRENDS...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD APPROACH LONGITUDE OF THE WABASH RIVER ROUGHLY 12 UTC. QUESTION IS HOW INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE BY DAYBREAK...CRAVEN SIG SVR PARAMETER FROM RUC DATA SUGGESTS A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND TO INTENSITY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BUT WITH SUCH A STRONG LLJ SVR THREAT MAY PERSIST THIS FAR E. NEW TORNADO WATCH RIGHT UP TO OUR WRN BORDER VALID UNTIL 13 UTC...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS THAT SCT-BKN DECAYING CONVECTION WILL CROSS INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...THEN PER LATEST NAM SVR CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AROUND 18 UTC AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA...ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION. AS NOTED IN NEW SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK... POTENTIAL IS THERE NOT ONLY FOR A SVR SQ LINE...BUT ALSO SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. FEEL THAT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISLTD TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG/N OF THE OHIO RIVER CLOSER TO SFC LOW AND WITHIN SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY. CONVECTION WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE E DURING THE AFTN HOURS AND SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00 UTC. WE ARE GOING TO LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH GOING IN CURRENT CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE ANY CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE PROGRESSIVE...1HR FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OVER WATCH AREA ARE VERY LOW (ON THE ORDER OF 0.5") SO RENEWED FLOODING WILL BE VERY QUICK TO TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH ANY NEW PRECIP. RAINFALL ANALYSIS INDICATING AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN LAST 7 DAYS OVER DUBOIS... PERRY...ORANGE...AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN SRN IND...YESTERDAY WE HAD A REPORT OF 7.5" FROM FRENCH LICK. AT LEAST 2-3" DURING THAT PERIOD N OF AN OHIO TO HARRISON/KY COUNTY LINE. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INDICATE GUST POTENTIAL TO NEAR 30KTS OVER THE CWA TODAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...AND 20-25KTS WITHIN COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT. THIS IS SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVELS BUT WILL DEFINITELY HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE A POOL OF COLD AIR STRATUS ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WE CAN SEE THESE CLOUDS NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO THIS SOLN SEEMS REASONABLE. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WARMEST READINGS WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF I-65 WHERE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT AHEAD...WHEN COMPARED TO THE MILD ONES WE'VE HAD OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. CS LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SUNDAY)... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... COLD TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SNOWS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. AS A SHARP COLD FRONT EXITS THE EAST COAST EARLY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING DISTINCTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALBEIT WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL RH FORECASTS SOME STATUS REMAINING EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP AROUND LOW MOISTURE FROM SYSTEM EXITING THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST...CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION. BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH FORECAST 925MB TEMPS RISING FROM -1 TO 4 FROM TUES TO WEDS AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDER OF THE TWO. PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS HINT AT SOMEWHAT OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE OR WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WEDNESDAY...SO TEMPERATURES MAY BE DISTINCTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THURSDAY... CLOUDS AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MUCH COLDER AIR STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ONTARIO DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS TROUGH AMPLIFIES...A RIDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A DISTINCT COOLDOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW MID MARCH NORMS. WITH THIS INFLUX OF DRIER AIR...DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP THROUGH SUNDAY. JSD .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ023- KYZ024-KYZ025-KYZ028-KYZ029-KYZ030-KYZ031-KYZ032-KYZ033- KYZ034-KYZ035-KYZ036-KYZ037-KYZ038-KYZ045. IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ076- INZ077-INZ078-INZ079-INZ083-INZ084-INZ089-INZ090-INZ091- INZ092. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1015 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .UPDATE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VERY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE/DEEPENING CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW HEADING ACROSS THE ERN U.P. ATTM. 00Z RAOBS REFLECTED THE POWERHOUSE SYSTEM THAT THIS HAS BECOME. 12HR 500MB/300MB HEIGHT FALLS REACHED A WHOPPING 250M/310M AT KGRB AND 240M/280M AT KAPX. STRENGTHENING SFC LOW HAS TRACKED SLIGHTLY NW OF MOST MODEL FCSTS...TYPICAL OF SUCH STRONGLY DEEPENING MIDLEVEL SYSTEMS. SFC LOW (PRES AROUND 982MB) TRACKED JUST W OF KISQ...JUST N OF KERY AND APPEARS TO BE NEAR WHITEFISH POINT NOW. SHARP PRES GRADIENT ON NW/W SIDE OF SFC LOW HAS RESULTED IN STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN UPPER MI NEAR THE LAKE. PEAK WINDS REACHED 52KT AT STDM4...49KT AS KP59... 39KT AT KCMX AND 42KT AT KP53. DEFORMATION/COLD CONVEYOR SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLIP E ACROSS UPPER MI. HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE APPARENT ON KMQT RADAR IMAGERY THAT TERRAIN AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT ARE PLAYING A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE DEFORMATION SNOW OVER UPPER MI. HEAVIEST SNOW IS TIED CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS RADAR ECHOES MATCH THE TOPOGRAPHY WELL. FARTHER INLAND...SNOW IS CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER. THIS WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE COUNTIES NOT BORDERING LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS RESULTED IN KEWEENAW/HOUGHTON COUNTY ROAD COMMISSIONS PULLING PLOWS OFF THE ROADS EARLIER IN THE EVENING. PLOWING TO RESUME LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 12-18INCHES OF SNOW FELL OVER MOST OF THE W THIRD OF UPPER MI INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BARAGA/MARQUETTE COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH SNOW INTENSITY HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY OVER THE W/NW FCST AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH WINDS SUBSIDING GRADUALLY...CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY STILL WARRANT WARNINGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC AND LOCAL LAPSWRF SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING 30-40KT IN THE EXPOSED AREAS...ESPECIALLY ONTONAGON THRU KEWEENAW. WITH ALL THE SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN AND A FEW INCHES OF ADDITIONAL...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS. ACROSS THE NCNTRL...SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OR AT LEAST THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL BECOME LESS FREQUENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BARAGA/MARQUETTE COUNTIES AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK FROM NRLY NOW TO NWRLY BY 12Z. ALGER/LUCE WILL SEE MDT/HVY SNOW OVERNIGHT. IF THE TERRAIN WAS HIGHER IN BOTH OF THOSE COUNTIES (SIMILAR TO MARQUETTE/BARAGA COUNTIES)...SNOW WOULD BE EXTREMELY HVY THRU THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE S...HAVE LET DICKINSON COUNTY WARNING EXPIRE. VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL FALL OVERNIGHT (LESS THAN 1 INCH). WINDS WILL STILL CREATE SOME PATCHY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. SNOW/BLSN ADVY FOR DELTA COUNTY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE... THOUGH WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE NRN/ERN PARTS OF THAT COUNTY AS LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO EXTEND INTO THOSE AREAS. CONSIDERED REPLACING WARNING FOR SRN SCHOOLCRAFT WITH ADVY SINCE DEFORMATION SNOW IS QUITE LIGHT AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PUSH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO THE SRN PART OF THE COUNTY. LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX LINGERS ACROSS THE ERN U.P. THRU THE NIGHT AS WELL WHICH WILL MAKE BLSN A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM ONCE THE NEW FLUFFIER SNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE THERE. UPDATES WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM GOING FCST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 350 PM EST 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MEAN WRN TROF/ERN RDG UPR AIR PATTERN ACRS NAMERICA. POTENT SHRTWV (12HR H3 HGT FALLS 100-150M)/SUPPORTING 150KT H3 WIND MAX LIFTING NE OUT OF THE PLAINS HAS DEEPENED 990MB SFC LO OVER CNTRL WI AT 16Z. DEFORMATION BAND OF HVY SN NOTED ACRS ALL BUT THE LK MI ZNS IN IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LO TO THE SW/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF APRCHG 150KT JET MAX AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF DEPARTING 140KT H3 JET OVER WRN QUEBEC. SE EDGE OF THE STEADY SN APPROXIMATED BY PAST/EXPECTED TRACK OF H7 LO. RADAR SHOWS COVG OVER THE SE ZNS MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS THIS AREA DOWNSTREAM OF MID LVL DRY SLOT. SN HAS ALSO BEEN MIXED WITH RA/PL THIS MRNG OVER THE SE COUNTIES CLOSER TO H85 WARM FNT/WARMER AIR TO THE SE. SOME LGT STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSVD THIS MRNG. 12Z GRB SNDG SHOWS STEEP H7-55 LAPSE RATES/DRYING IN DRY SLOT ABV LLVL MSTR/STEEP WARM FNTL INVRN. 12Z NAM F6 CROSS SECTION ALSO SHOWS NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE AXIS OF SHARP FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN DEFORMATION ZN AND NRLY COINCIDENT WITH MID LVL OMEGA AOA 20UB/S. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND PRESENCE OF VIGOROUS OMEGA/FRONTOGENESIS IN LYR WITH TEMPS FVRBL FOR DENDRITIC SN GROWTH HAVE RESULTED IN ENHANCED SN RATES WITH SN AMTS UP TO 2 INCHES/HR AND VSBY AOB 1/4SM REPORTED. NNE WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUSTED UP TO 40 MPH OVER THE W HALF AS SHARP 3HR PRES FALL APRCHG 9MB/3HRS CENTERED NR ESC AT 15Z. SFC LO APPEARS TO BE DVLPG IN THIS DIRECTION. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE FOCUSED IN THE FIRST 24 HRS AND CENTER ARND SN AMTS/WINDS AND BLSN/GOING HEADLINES. FOR TNGT...LATEST RUC/NAM/GFS SHOW SFC LO MOVING TO NR ISQ AT 00Z TUE AND THEN TO THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER ARND 12Z. FA WL REMAIN IN THE SHARP CYC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SFC LO AND ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE H7 LO TRACK. DEEP H7 MSTR/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO BE SLOW TO DEPART. NAM F12 ALSO SHOWS SOME PERSISTENT NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE SHARP MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN DEFORMATION ZN...SO EXPECT SN TO FALL HVY AT TIMES YET THIS EVNG EVEN THOUGH COUPLED UPR JET/ ENHANCED UPR DVGC FCST TO COLLAPSE BEFORE 00Z. INCRSG LLVL WINDS (NAM SHOWS H925 WINDS INCRSG TO 45KTS) WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLSN AS WELL. AS STRENGTHENING NNE FLOW DRAWS COLDER AND RELATIVELY MOIST H85 AIR UPSTREAM INTO THE UPR GRT LKS (H85 TEMPS -10C AT INL/-13C AT YPL WITH DWPT DEPRESSION OF 1C)...EXPECT SN TO TRANSITION TO A LK ENHANCED EVENT WITH SHARP CYC FLOW/LINGERING DEEP MSTR/QVECTOR CNVGC ACTING AS THE LK ENHANCEMENT MECHANISM. LES CHART SUGS 2 TO 4 INCHES/12HR ENHANCEMENT FOR EXPECTED CONDITIONS. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND SN BECOMES FINER...NR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY RESULT NR LK SUP. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND GOING WINTER STORM WRNG FOR IRON COUNTY THRU THE NGT AS INCRSG NW WIND WL BLOW HEAVIER SN SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE NW PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. WL LEAVE OTHER WRNGS AS IS. ALSO OPTED TO GO WITH SN/BLSN ADVYS THIS EVNG OVER MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES THIS EVNG AND ALL NGT OVER DELTA. DEEP MSTR PROGGED TO DEPART W-E ON TUE...CLRG ERY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT CONTINUED LK ENHANCED SN OVER THE E MOST OF THE DAY IN SHARP CYC FLOW. FARTHER W...LOSS OF DEEP MSTR WL ALLOW ACTIVITY TO TRANSITION TO A PURE LES...WHICH WL BE DISRUPTED BY SOLAR HTG. WL ALLOW GOING WRNGS OVER THE W TO END BUT KEEP WRNG OVER THE E GOING AS SCHEDULED UNTIL THE END OF THE DAY. FCST LLVL WINDS REMAIN AS HI AS 40KT AT H925 OVER THE E ALL DAY...SO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE BLSN TO CONTINUE THERE THRU THE DAY. CYC NW FLOW TO LINGER BUT WEAKEN THRU TUE NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING WED AS BLDG HI PRES OVER SCNTRL CAN NOSES SEWD TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS. ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR FM THE NW AS SHOWN BY NAM/GFS AS WELL AS LOWERING INVRN (INCRSG H85 TEMP) WL SGNFTLY LIMIT SN AMTS BELOW WHAT LES CHART WOULD SUG. AFTER BIG STORM DEPARTS AT MID-WEEK...EXPECT A MORE TRANQUIL WX PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN WITH BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE NATLANTIC LOCKING LO PRES TROF IN PLACE OVER SE CAN WL HOLD BIG DRY HI IN PLACE. VIGOROUS CAD ARND THIS STNRY VORTEX OVER SE CAN WL FORCE LO PRES EMERGING FM THE ROCKIES ON WED TO REMAIN FAR ENUF S OF THE FA TO WARRANT MAINTENANCE OF SCHC POPS ACRS ONLY THE SRN HALF OF MNM COUNTY ON THU. REINFORCING SHRTWV DROPPING S IN THE NLY FLOW ARND THE VORTEX AND AIR SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LES (ECMWF SHOWS H85 TEMPS ARND -16C AT 00Z SAT) WL ALLOW FOR LES NR LK SUP IN THE LATER THU TO EARLY SAT TIME. THEN SPRAWLING HI PRES LATER IN THE WEEKEND WL PROVIDE A VERY QUIET TIME. EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS DURING THIS REGIME WITH LGT WINDS/DRY AIRMASS ALLOWING SHARP TEMP DROP AT NGT (FCST LO TEMPS ON THE LO END OF GFS MOS GUIDANCE TO NR ZERO) BUT STRENGTHENING LATE WINTER SUNSHINE CAUSING QUICK TEMP RISE DURING THE DAY (TO NOT FAR FM GUIDANCE AND INTO THE 30S). COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WRNG MIZ001>003-005 UNTIL TUE 17Z. WINTER STORM WARNING MIZ004-009-084 UNTIL TUE 17Z. BLIZZARD WRNG MIZ006 UNTIL TUE 23Z. WINTER STORM WARNING MIZ010 UNTIL TUE 11Z. SN/BLSN ADVY MIZ013 UNTIL TUE 11Z. WINTER STORM WARNING MIZ007-014-085 UNTIL TUE 23Z. GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ ROLFSON (UPDATE) KC (PREV DISCUSSION) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1005 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .UPDATE...SFC/RUC/SATELLITE/RADAR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP SFC LOW NEAR WHITEFISH POINT EJECTING NORTHEAST TOWARD ONTARIO. INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE CWA. A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS IS WORKING INTO THE WESTERN CWA (MAINLY IN NRN LOWER)...MARKING THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE...IN DECAYING DEFORMATION ZONE. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. COLDER AIR IS BEING USHERED IN FROM WEST/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN AND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. RAOB DATA AT H8/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING THAT THE AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT (ROUGHLY -10C/-11C) WAS WELL BACK ACROSS NW WISCONSIN EARLIER. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS -10C AIR WAS STILL OUT ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AT 930 PM...WHILE ACARS DATA SUGGESTS THAT -13/-14C H8 AIR WAS WELL INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY EASTERN WISCONSIN AND HAVE TO BELIEVE THIS DATA. THEREFORE...LOOKING FOR LES TO BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE BANDS TO GET ORGANIZED...BUT 1000-850MB WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO GET LOCKED IN FROM A MORE WESTERLY/AND EVENTUAL WNW DIRECTION (NRN LOWER) AND NW DIRECTION (EASTERN UPPER) OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS AT H8 DIP INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE. STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR PRE-CONDITIONING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW BUILDING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 6KFT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WHILE H8-H5 RH IS GREATER THAN 80% WILL CERTAINLY HELP VIGOROUS LAKE CONVECTION. WILL NOT BE MUCH SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION TO THE SNOWFALL...AS EARLIER STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN H7-H5 DEFORMATION ZONE...ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN COLDER H8 REGIME LED TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING A FOOT. DEFORMATION IS FALLING APART...BUT AS TEMPS FALL HERE WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE REGIME IS MOVING IN OVERHEAD...EXPECT A PERIOD OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS W...THEN WNW SNOWBELTS. THIS WILL BE DUE IN LARGE PART BY THE WONDERFUL MICROPHYSICS WITH DEEP (800-600MB) LAYER ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN -14 AND -18C. WE WILL STILL BE LIMITED BY LESS THAN FAVORABLE H8 TEMPS (NOT QUITE -13C)...AND THE WAIT FOR THE COLDER TEMPERATURES (LESS TIME AT OPTIMUM H8 TEMPS IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE). OVERALL...ONLY GOT A LITTLE SNOW (DUSTING HERE AT THE OFFICE) WHERE IT HAS BEEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL SNOW FOR THE NIGHT...BUT LATE TONIGHT...A GOOD 4-5 INCHES CAN FALL WITH THE EXPECTED PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW. ANOTHER 2-5 INCHES OVER TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG WINDS JUSTIFIES CURRENT WINTER STORMS HEADLINES. SO OUTSIDE OF LOWERING TOTAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE HEADLINES...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK JUST FINE. ALL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE FAR SE CWA NEAR THE SAGINAW BAY WILL SEE SOME SORT OF SNOW...AS THE STRONG 1000-850MB WESTERLY WINDS OF 35-40KTS WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH THE SNOW WELL INLAND. SMD && .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 622 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 UPDATE...ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM FOR ALL BUT SE COUNTIES OF THE CWA...AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THE WIND INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. WINDS ARE STILL GOING TO BLOW AT A STEADY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING...AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW SHOWERS TO PUSH THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AM LOOKING AT THE TIMING OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPMENT...AND RIGHT NOW...LOOKS OK FOR 9 PM OR SO. SMD && PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 330 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 DISCUSSION...MONDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP/OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR (TRAVERSE CITY)...PUSHING STEADILY NE...AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY HAD ADVANCED TO (THE I-75 CORRIDOR). MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW/COMMA CLOUD/DEFORMATION AXIS (AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY SNOW) WAS NOTED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THROUGH THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX SCENARIO RESULTS IN COMPLEX HEADLINE DECISIONS TONIGHT. INITIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT...TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AS TEMPERATURES TEMPORARILY SURGE INTO THE 40S/50S AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES/ISALLOBARIC ENHANCEMENT IS DRIVING SW WINDS SUSTAINED 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS 45-50 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL ONSET OF STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON PRECEDES PROGRESS OF THE THE UPPER LOW/ONSET OF ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT SNOW BY 8-10 HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH COMBINED THE STRONG WIND/SNOW THREATS INTO SINGLE HEADLINES...COMMENCED AT 6 PM THIS EVENING...TOO EARLY FOR THE ONSET OF SNOW BUT TOO LATE FOR THE INITIAL WIND EVENT. BECAUSE OF THE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE WIND/SNOW EVENTS...AND IN AN EFFORT TO MAINTAIN SOME FORECAST CONTINUITY...DECIDED TO TREAT AS SEPARATE EVENTS...AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF M-72 UNTIL 6 PM...THEN WILL ALLOW WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO COMMENCE AS PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED AT 6 PM. MEANWHILE...BECAUSE 12Z MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A MIXED LAYER TAPPING INTO 50 KNOT WINDS ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES FOR FAR SE COUNTIES THROUGH 6 AM...AND THE MID SHIFT MAY NEED TO FURTHER EXTENDED THESE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS ALREADY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED COMMA HEAD/SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO N/W COUNTIES AFTER 9-10 PM...THEN SPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING A MOIST ISOTHERMAL LAYER WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF -15C BETWEEN 850 AND 600 MB DURING THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME (PROBABLY CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 15Z)...INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -11C TO -13C RANGE BY 12Z TUESDAY) AND N/NNW FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN UP AND NW/WNW FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN) WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES (AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES IN FAVORED COUNTIES)...WHILE THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT/MIXING WILL PROMOTE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/ASSOCIATED BLOWING SNOW. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONGOING FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE...WITH ADVISORIES ACROSS THE EASTERN UP (GIVEN HIGHER WARNING CRITERIA AND N WIND HOLDING BEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS)...WARNINGS IN FAVORED NW FLOW COUNTIES ACROSS NW LOWER MI AND ADVISORIES ACROSS MOST REMAINING N LOWER MI COUNTIES...AS STRONG WINDS PUSH SNOW SHOWERS INLAND...ASIDE FROM EARLY WIND HEADLINES ALREADY DISCUSSED DO NOT PLAN CHANGES. DESPITE 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -12C TO -14C RANGE AND NW/WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW...AS IS TYPICAL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...DIURNAL HEATING/CONVECTION WILL INCREASINGLY DISRUPT HORIZONTAL ROLL CONVECTION TUESDAY...THUS BANDED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TRANSITION TO CELLULAR SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW...AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE SHORT RESIDENCE TIME OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS...THUS TRIMMED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 40-50% FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HOWEVER...CONTINUED WARNINGS/ ADVISORIES ALREADY IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AND WNW/NW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR (850-700 MB MEAN RH DECREASING TO LESS THAN 50%) SPREADS INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY...12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH A SOUTHERN WAVE...BUT BETWEEN COLD 850 MB AIR (-12C TO -15C) AND UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL AREAS. AFTER THE SOUTHERN WAVE EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY COLD AIR (-12C TO -18C) FLOWING OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH SUBSIDENCE/VERY DRY AIR SUNDAY-MONDAY. ROWLEY && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WX ADVISORY...UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY...MIZ008-015. WIND ADVISORY...UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY...MIZ030-035-036-041-042. WINTER STORM WARNING...6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY...MIZ019>022-027-028. WINTER WX ADVISORY...6 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY... MIZ016>018-023>026-029-031>034. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 350 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .DISCUSSION... 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MEAN WRN TROF/ERN RDG UPR AIR PATTERN ACRS NAMERICA. POTENT SHRTWV (12HR H3 HGT FALLS 100-150M)/SUPPORTING 150KT H3 WIND MAX LIFTING NE OUT OF THE PLAINS HAS DEEPENED 990MB SFC LO OVER CNTRL WI AT 16Z. DEFORMATION BAND OF HVY SN NOTED ACRS ALL BUT THE LK MI ZNS IN IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LO TO THE SW/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF APRCHG 150KT JET MAX AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF DEPARTING 140KT H3 JET OVER WRN QUEBEC. SE EDGE OF THE STEADY SN APPROXIMATED BY PAST/EXPECTED TRACK OF H7 LO. RADAR SHOWS COVG OVER THE SE ZNS MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS THIS AREA DOWNSTREAM OF MID LVL DRY SLOT. SN HAS ALSO BEEN MIXED WITH RA/PL THIS MRNG OVER THE SE COUNTIES CLOSER TO H85 WARM FNT/WARMER AIR TO THE SE. SOME LGT STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSVD THIS MRNG. 12Z GRB SNDG SHOWS STEEP H7-55 LAPSE RATES/DRYING IN DRY SLOT ABV LLVL MSTR/STEEP WARM FNTL INVRN. 12Z NAM F6 CROSS SECTION ALSO SHOWS NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE AXIS OF SHARP FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN DEFORMATION ZN AND NRLY COINCIDENT WITH MID LVL OMEGA AOA 20UB/S. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND PRESENCE OF VIGOROUS OMEGA/FRONTOGENESIS IN LYR WITH TEMPS FVRBL FOR DENDRITIC SN GROWTH HAVE RESULTED IN ENHANCED SN RATES WITH SN AMTS UP TO 2 INCHES/HR AND VSBY AOB 1/4SM REPORTED. NNE WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUSTED UP TO 40 MPH OVER THE W HALF AS SHARP 3HR PRES FALL APRCHG 9MB/3HRS CENTERED NR ESC AT 15Z. SFC LO APPEARS TO BE DVLPG IN THIS DIRECTION. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE FOCUSED IN THE FIRST 24 HRS AND CENTER ARND SN AMTS/WINDS AND BLSN/GOING HEADLINES. FOR TNGT...LATEST RUC/NAM/GFS SHOW SFC LO MOVING TO NR ISQ AT 00Z TUE AND THEN TO THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER ARND 12Z. FA WL REMAIN IN THE SHARP CYC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SFC LO AND ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE H7 LO TRACK. DEEP H7 MSTR/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO BE SLOW TO DEPART. NAM F12 ALSO SHOWS SOME PERSISTENT NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE SHARP MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN DEFORMATION ZN...SO EXPECT SN TO FALL HVY AT TIMES YET THIS EVNG EVEN THOUGH COUPLED UPR JET/ ENHANCED UPR DVGC FCST TO COLLAPSE BEFORE 00Z. INCRSG LLVL WINDS (NAM SHOWS H925 WINDS INCRSG TO 45KTS) WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLSN AS WELL. AS STRENGTHENING NNE FLOW DRAWS COLDER AND RELATIVELY MOIST H85 AIR UPSTREAM INTO THE UPR GRT LKS (H85 TEMPS -10C AT INL/-13C AT YPL WITH DWPT DEPRESSION OF 1C)...EXPECT SN TO TRANSITION TO A LK ENHANCED EVENT WITH SHARP CYC FLOW/LINGERING DEEP MSTR/QVECTOR CNVGC ACTING AS THE LK ENHANCEMENT MECHANISM. LES CHART SUGS 2 TO 4 INCHES/12HR ENHANCEMENT FOR EXPECTED CONDITIONS. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND SN BECOMES FINER...NR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY RESULT NR LK SUP. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND GOING WINTER STORM WRNG FOR IRON COUNTY THRU THE NGT AS INCRSG NW WIND WL BLOW HEAVIER SN SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE NW PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. WL LEAVE OTHER WRNGS AS IS. ALSO OPTED TO GO WITH SN/BLSN ADVYS THIS EVNG OVER MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES THIS EVNG AND ALL NGT OVER DELTA. DEEP MSTR PROGGED TO DEPART W-E ON TUE...CLRG ERY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT CONTINUED LK ENHANCED SN OVER THE E MOST OF THE DAY IN SHARP CYC FLOW. FARTHER W...LOSS OF DEEP MSTR WL ALLOW ACTIVITY TO TRANSITION TO A PURE LES...WHICH WL BE DISRUPTED BY SOLAR HTG. WL ALLOW GOING WRNGS OVER THE W TO END BUT KEEP WRNG OVER THE E GOING AS SCHEDULED UNTIL THE END OF THE DAY. FCST LLVL WINDS REMAIN AS HI AS 40KT AT H925 OVER THE E ALL DAY...SO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE BLSN TO CONTINUE THERE THRU THE DAY. CYC NW FLOW TO LINGER BUT WEAKEN THRU TUE NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING WED AS BLDG HI PRES OVER SCNTRL CAN NOSES SEWD TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS. ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR FM THE NW AS SHOWN BY NAM/GFS AS WELL AS LOWERING INVRN (INCRSG H85 TEMP) WL SGNFTLY LIMIT SN AMTS BELOW WHAT LES CHART WOULD SUG. AFTER BIG STORM DEPARTS AT MID-WEEK...EXPECT A MORE TRANQUIL WX PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN WITH BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE NATLANTIC LOCKING LO PRES TROF IN PLACE OVER SE CAN WL HOLD BIG DRY HI IN PLACE. VIGOROUS CAD ARND THIS STNRY VORTEX OVER SE CAN WL FORCE LO PRES EMERGING FM THE ROCKIES ON WED TO REMAIN FAR ENUF S OF THE FA TO WARRANT MAINTENANCE OF SCHC POPS ACRS ONLY THE SRN HALF OF MNM COUNTY ON THU. REINFORCING SHRTWV DROPPING S IN THE NLY FLOW ARND THE VORTEX AND AIR SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LES (ECMWF SHOWS H85 TEMPS ARND -16C AT 00Z SAT) WL ALLOW FOR LES NR LK SUP IN THE LATER THU TO EARLY SAT TIME. THEN SPRAWLING HI PRES LATER IN THE WEEKEND WL PROVIDE A VERY QUIET TIME. EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS DURING THIS REGIME WITH LGT WINDS/DRY AIRMASS ALLOWING SHARP TEMP DROP AT NGT (FCST LO TEMPS ON THE LO END OF GFS MOS GUIDANCE TO NR ZERO) BUT STRENGTHENING LATE WINTER SUNSHINE CAUSING QUICK TEMP RISE DURING THE DAY (TO NOT FAR FM GUIDANCE AND INTO THE 30S). COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WRNG MIZ001>003-005 UNTIL TUE 17Z. WINTER STORM WARNING MIZ004-009-084 UNTIL TUE 17Z. BLIZZARD WRNG MIZ006 UNTIL TUE 23Z. WINTER STORM WARNING MIZ010 UNTIL TUE 11Z. WINTER STORM WARNING MIZ011 UNTIL TUE 03Z. SN/BLSN ADVY MIZ013 UNTIL TUE 11Z. WINTER STORM WARNING MIZ007-014-085 UNTIL TUE 23Z. GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1137 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE U.P. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN HALF CONUS...AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A CLOSED LOW IS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW AND IS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A WARM FRONT LEADS THIS LOW AND STRETCHES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.P. 290K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG ASCENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING OVER WISCONSIN IN THE AREA STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONG 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER THE U.P. BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. NAM20 QPF SHOWING .5 INCH OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION IN 3HR PERIOD BY 21Z. THE UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE U.P. WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA AS WELL. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE MIXING RATIO SHOWING 2-4G/KG SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN U.P. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST. THUS THERE MAY BE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION EAST. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN ONTARIO TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA BY THE NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL SET UP A LAKE-850MB DELTA-T OF AROUND 14C...SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ENHANCEMENT TO SYSTEM LATE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THUS WILL EXTEND THE WARNING FOR THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT IN ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE EAST AND LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. TIGHTER GRADIENTS BEHIND THE LOW SHOWING AN INCREASE OF WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085. GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 447 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FOCUS WAS ON SHORT TERM CONCERNS WITH WINTER STORM PASSING THROUGH AREA. RUC AND ETA12 SERIOUSLY OVERESTIMATED SHORT TERM PRECIP IN MAIN BAND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TOWARD SIOUX CITY. REPORTS SO FAR INDICATE GREATEST AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES KNOX AND CEDAR COUNTIES NEAR SD BORDER WITH LESSER AMTS ELSEWHERE. BAND OF BRIEF MODERATE SNOW PASSING THRU SW IA PRODUCED A FEW TENTHS IN OMAHA AREA...AND WILL SOON MOVE EAST OF CWA. WRAPAROUND SNOW IS LIGHTER BUT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A MILE FOR A WHILE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BEFORE SYSTEM MOVES OUT IN THE MID MORNING. SNOW ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED TWO HOURS EARLY. CLOUDY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES TOWARD EVE AND THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN STRATOCU BEFORE THEN...THEN A MORE RAPID CLEARING AFTER DARK. AS WINDS DROP OFF...RADIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD LATE AT NIGHT. SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1 OR 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES. EXPECT REMAINING SNOW TO MELT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND NOT AFFECT TEMPS AFTER THAT. THE AREA WITHOUT SNOW COVER WILL BE LARGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER NICELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUE. KEPT MAX TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW GUID ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH FOR COMPATABILITY WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THE MAIN QUESTION MIDWEEK IS THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PRECIP BAND FROM THE NEXT WAVE AS A SFC LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HPC DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTED MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...WITH A FAVORED SOLUTION A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS. NAM IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP PRECIP OVER THE AREA...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT IT CLIPS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BEFORE EXPANDING RAPIDLY IN NRN AND CENTRAL IA WED EVENING. RAISED PREVIOUS POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE NORTH. 06Z HAS COME IN EVEN FASTER THAN THE 00Z OP RUN IN TAKING THE SFC LOW EAST. DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ POLLACK ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1040 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROF HAVE MOVED INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A SHORT BREAK ACROSS CNY/NEPA. MOST OF FCST AREA WAS TOO STABLE FOR CONVECTIVE MIXING OF MUCH WIND AT THE SFC...WITH PEAK WIND HERE AT KBGM ONLY 29 KTS. BIGGER STORY WAS POCKET OF HVY RAIN AND FLOODING OVER NRN SUSQUEHANNA REGION IN NY. FRONTAL WAVE NOW APPROACHING WITH ROUND TWO FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY LINGERING OVER OUR SRN ZONES...WITH REST OF NY FCST AREA MORE STABLE. STABILITY IN THE LLVLS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...BUT WITH HGHTS FALLING ALOFT MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT. LOOKS LIKE WE'LL GET A 3-5 HR PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA WITH ACTIVITY WANING AFTER ABOUT 3 AM. SVR THREAT APPEARS OVER. RAIN LOOKS TO BE VERY PROGRESSIVE THIS TIME AROUND...SO FAST RESPONDING WATER PROBLEMS ALSO APPEAR TO BE A NON ISSUE. LOW TEMPS VERY TRICKY WITH COLD AIR SPILLING ACROSS THE AREA LATE. HAVE FOLLOWED LATEST RUC/ETA12 TEMP FCSTS FOR TREND WITH WEST AND NORTH REACHING THE 30S...BUT EASTERN AREAS HOLDING BASICALLY STEADY IN THE UPR 40S-LOW 50S THRU 12Z. COLD AIR CONTINUALLY DEEPENS ON TUESDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES MOST PLACES. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP CURVES TO REFLECT THIS. MORE INTERESTING WX ON TAP TUESDAY AFTER FROPA. STACKED LOW MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CANADA WILL OFFER UP A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT... ESPLY FOR UPSTATE NY. INDICATIONS THAT CAA WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WIND ADVISORY GUSTS MAY BE REACHED. WINDS MAY GET GUSTY LATE TONIGHT...AND COME UP WEDS MORNING BUT MAIN ISSUES SEEM TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON PER FCST SOUNDINGS...SO WILL LET MID SHIFT HOIST THE ADVISORY IF NEEDED. THEY WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER WHAT TO DO WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR NORTHERN ONONDAGA...MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE AFTER THE BOUNDARLY LAYER STABILIZES TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BIT OF SPEED SHEAR IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...AND PARCEL RESIDENCE TIME MAY BE LIMITED...HELPING TO KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN A BIT. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS LES ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUES NIGHT. -JAB && .AVIATION (14/00Z - 15/00Z)... GENERALLY BKN-OVC VFR CIGS WITH PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z-14Z. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25-35 KNOTS. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)... BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THRU EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST. NW FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE CHC FOR LES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA INTO END OF THE WEEK. NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM SKIRTS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN PA THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING PER 06Z GFS. 00Z ECMWF SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH SYSTEM BUT IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH EVOLN/TRACK OF LOW CENTER. THIS WILL BRING CHC FOR SNOW THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MOST LIKELY AREAS TO PICK UP ACCUM IN NEPA. PB && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...FLOOD WATCH...ONEIDA COUNTY...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. .PA...NONE. $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1008 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)... STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT EAST OF FA AND WAS PUSING THRU ERN OH ATTM. DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING INTO FA WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S IN THE FAR WEST. HAVE UPDATED TO DROP TSTMS AND WEATHER WATCH. REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE NORTH AND 35 MPH IN THE SOUTH. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 648 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006) AVIATION (00Z-24Z)... STRONG COLD FROONT PUSING INTO WESTERN FA AT THIS TIME AS EVENT BY LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING. STRONG SHEAR WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES UP TO 400 M2/S2. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH MUCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE AID OF THE FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BNDRY. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF STRONG STORMS TO EASTERN TAF SITES FOR FIRST COUPLE HRS OF FCST UNTIL FNT PUSHES THRU AND THEN BRING IN STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. POTENTIAL TEMP SFC/S INTO THE GROUND WITH WINDS AROUND 40KTS IN LOWEST 2K FEET JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF GUSTS TO 35KTS FOR A PERIOD THIS EVE IN NORTH AND LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH. WRAP AROUND MVFR CLDS WORK INTO THE TAFS BETWEEN LATER TNGT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 437 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR UP OF MICHIGAN WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST. FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM KFWA-KIND-KEVV. ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVER A BIT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. LATEST RUC INDICATING SOME WEAK CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AND LIS AROUND -2. CURRENT WEATHER WATCH 88 WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS WILL CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. COULD GET SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SO KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY. SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE PRETTY REASONABLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FWC NUMBERS BEING A BIT TOO COOL. SO STUCK CLOSE TO MAV/MET NUMBERS. RLG (ISSUED 437 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006) LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... FORECAST STARTS OUT MOIST WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. REST OF LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. KEPT TEMPERATURE FORECAST GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV...WHICH IS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065- 070>074-077>082-088 UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY. KY...WIND ADVISORY FOR KYZ091>093 UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY. IN...WIND ADVISORY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075 UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM... oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 800 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)... UPDATE TO REMOVE WW 88 FROM WESTERN ZONES AND LOWER POPS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 648 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006) AVIATION (00Z-24Z)... STRONG COLD FROONT PUSING INTO WESTERN FA AT THIS TIME AS EVENT BY LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING. STRONG SHEAR WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES UP TO 400 M2/S2. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH MUCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE AID OF THE FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BNDRY. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF STRONG STORMS TO EASTERN TAF SITES FOR FIRST COUPLE HRS OF FCST UNTIL FNT PUSHES THRU AND THEN BRING IN STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. POTENTIAL TEMP SFC/S INTO THE GROUND WITH WINDS AROUND 40KTS IN LOWEST 2K FEET JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF GUSTS TO 35KTS FOR A PERIOD THIS EVE IN NORTH AND LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH. WRAP AROUND MVFR CLDS WORK INTO THE TAFS BETWEEN LATER TNGT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 437 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR UP OF MICHIGAN WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST. FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM KFWA-KIND-KEVV. ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVER A BIT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. LATEST RUC INDICATING SOME WEAK CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AND LIS AROUND -2. CURRENT WEATHER WATCH 88 WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS WILL CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. COULD GET SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SO KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY. SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE PRETTY REASONABLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FWC NUMBERS BEING A BIT TOO COOL. SO STUCK CLOSE TO MAV/MET NUMBERS. RLG (ISSUED 437 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006) LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... FORECAST STARTS OUT MOIST WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. REST OF LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. KEPT TEMPERATURE FORECAST GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV...WHICH IS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065- 070>074-077>082-088 UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY. KY...WIND ADVISORY FOR KYZ091>093 UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY. IN...WIND ADVISORY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075 UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM... oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 648 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .AVIATION (00Z-24Z)... STRONG COLD FROONT PUSING INTO WESTERN FA AT THIS TIME AS EVENT BY LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING. STRONG SHEAR WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES UP TO 400 M2/S2. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH MUCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE AID OF THE FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BNDRY. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF STRONG STORMS TO EASTERN TAF SITES FOR FIRST COUPLE HRS OF FCST UNTIL FNT PUSHES THRU AND THEN BRING IN STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. POTENTIAL TEMP SFC/S INTO THE GROUND WITH WINDS AROUND 40KTS IN LOWEST 2K FEET JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF GUSTS TO 35KTS FOR A PERIOD THIS EVE IN NORTH AND LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH. WRAP AROUND MVFR CLDS WORK INTO THE TAFS BETWEEN LATER TNGT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 437 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR UP OF MICHIGAN WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST. FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM KFWA-KIND-KEVV. ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVER A BIT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. LATEST RUC INDICATING SOME WEAK CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AND LIS AROUND -2. CURRENT WEATHER WATCH 88 WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS WILL CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. COULD GET SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SO KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY. SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE PRETTY REASONABLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FWC NUMBERS BEING A BIT TOO COOL. SO STUCK CLOSE TO MAV/MET NUMBERS. RLG (ISSUED 437 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006) LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... FORECAST STARTS OUT MOIST WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. REST OF LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. KEPT TEMPERATURE FORECAST GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV...WHICH IS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074- 077>082-088 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065- 070>074-077>082-088 FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM TUESDAY. KY...FLOOD WATCH FOR KYZ089>100 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR KYZ091>093 FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM TUESDAY. IN...FLOOD WATCH FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075 FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM TUESDAY. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 437 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR UP OF MICHIGAN WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST. FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM KFWA-KIND-KEVV. ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVER A BIT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. LATEST RUC INDICATING SOME WEAK CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AND LIS AROUND -2. CURRENT WEATHER WATCH 88 WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS WILL CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. COULD GET SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SO KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY. SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE PRETTY REASONABLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FWC NUMBERS BEING A BIT TOO COOL. SO STUCK CLOSE TO MAV/MET NUMBERS. RLG && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... FORECAST STARTS OUT MOIST WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. REST OF LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. KEPT TEMPERATURE FORECAST GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV...WHICH IS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... BACK EDGE OF LINE OF CONVECTION IS PRETTY MUCH RUNNING ALONG I-71. EXPECT IT TO BE EAST OF TAFS BY 20Z. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF CLDFNT IN WRN IN. BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE FEEL THE THE CHANCE IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS. NEXT PROBLEM IS HOW MUCH WIND THERE WILL BE POST FRONTAL. NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRONG POST FRONTAL LLVL JET. TWEAKED WINDS DOWN TO 15 TO 20 SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS. WRAP AROUND MVFR CLDS WORK INTO THE TAFS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. SITES && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074- 077>082-088 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065- 070>074-077>082-088 FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM TUESDAY. KY...FLOOD WATCH FOR KYZ089>100 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR KYZ091>093 FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM TUESDAY. IN...FLOOD WATCH FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075 FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM TUESDAY. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1014 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006 .UPDATE... BIT OF A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE TOO WELL IN RESPECT TO THE DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF LOOKED TO BE ALIGNED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AT 16Z. MAIN ISSUES FOR TODAY ARE POPS THIS MORNING...THEN TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE POPS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. WILL UPDATE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WERE ALREADY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S AT CLL. THE 06Z MET GUIDANCE FOR CLL WAS ABOUT 20 TOO HIGH FOR 15Z WHILE THE 12Z UPDATED GUIDANCE WAS ONLY SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. THE RUC LOOKED TO BE DOING OKAY AND UNDERCUT ITS VALUES A BIT FOR THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS ALSO A BIT TOO LOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE ETA12/NAM12 HINTED AT NEAR 80 FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE NORTH AND WEST. STILL THINK THE MOS OUTPUT IS TOO LOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. IF THE SUN BREAKS OUT FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 80...THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM CRP...LCH...AND DRT ALL INDICATING HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TWEAKING THE AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A BIT. WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING TO NEAR 80...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD EASILY GET BELOW 20 PERCENT AND MORE THAN LIKELY NEAR 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR AREAS BASICALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO BAY CITY. PL-40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...MADISON... WALLER...AND WASHINGTON. FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HOUSTON...TRINITY...AND WALKER. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...AND WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 630 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006 DISCUSSION...UPDATED ZONES SENT. HAVE BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF PCPN INTO EASTERN ZONES WITH DRY SLOT ENTRENCHED OVER AREA. TRACK OF LOW IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME...WITH STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOME OF THIS DUE TO CONVECTION OVER AREA...THOUGH POSSIBLE FOR LOW TO TAKE MORE WEST TRACK...WITH ADVISORIES/WARNINGS IN THE EAST IN JEOPARDY. LASTEST RUC STILL BRINGING IT THROUGH GRB AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO LET CURRENT HEADLINES GO...THOUGH SLOW TIMING OF PCPN AND CHANGE OVER IN THE EAST WITH ONLY SCATTERED PCPN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...FILLING IN LATER MORNING. SOME RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...THOUGH SHOULD CHANGE OVER QUICKLY...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF ZONES AT THIS TIME. .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS STATE OF CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. STILL MUCH TREPIDATION WITH THIS FORECAST THOUGH WILL LET SCENARIO PLAY OUT. UPDATES MADE BY PREVIOUS SHIFT STILL LOOK GOOD. MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR THIS PERIOD...THOUGH HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS 00Z GFS RUN WHICH SHOWS CURRENT LULL IN ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF JET. FURTHER WEST DEFORMATION ZONE STILL ORGANIZING TO THE NORTHWEST OF SURFACE LOW...THIS AREA TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY TODAY AS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN U.P. BY THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW SIG LIFT OVER AREA THIS MORNING AND FIRST PART OF AFTERNOON...SO FEEL WARNING/ADVISORY CRITERIA STILL WILL BE MET. CONCERNS THOUGH WITH CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM. LOW DEEPENS BY ANOTHER 10 MB AS PUSHES INTO MICHIGAN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE TO INCREASE TO NEAR 35KTS. WET NATURE OF SNOW WILL LIMIT BLOWING POTENTIAL...BUT WILL MENTION SOME IN NEXT WARNING ISSUANCE. SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TONIGHT...WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END...EXCEPT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WI. WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH SNOW THERE SINCE WINDS SHIFT TOO WESTERLY BY TUE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WARM ADVECTION SNOW FROM SURFACE LOW MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DRYING SHOULD KEEP MOST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE UPPER PENINSULA CLOSER TO THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN. SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING US MUCH SNOW... ESPECIALLY WITH DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY WIZ021-073-074- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY WIZ020-030-031- WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY WIZ005-010>013-018-019- && $$ TE WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 456 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006 .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. MORE SEASONABLE AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE CWA. WITH STRONG CAA...STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT...AS THE AREA REMAINS EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND A DECENT GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE AREA TODAY...WENT WITH BREEZY WORDING FOR THE ZONES. MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INVERSION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...SO ADDED A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT FOR TONIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR LONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE WINDS...AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE BEST LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER AND MORE CONSISTENT MET NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...BASED ON THE 0Z MODEL RUNS AS FRIDAY NOW LOOKS DRY. ALSO MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND GRIDS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1150 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO END ALL PRECIPITATION AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A WEAK AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THAT ARE ON A WEAKENING TREND. AT 11:45 PM...THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS WHICH EXTENDED IN A THIN LINE FROM MORGAN TO LEE COUNTY. THERE WERE ALSO SOME WEAK SHOWERS STILL LINGERING OVER HARLAN COUNTY. THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH JACKSON AT ABOUT 10:10 PM TONIGHT. THE DEWPOINT DROPPED TWELVE DEGREES IN TWENTY MINUTES AND THE WIND SHIFTED ABOUT 100 DEGREES. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY ABOUT 1 AM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 917 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 DISCUSSION... UPDATED THE FORECAST TO END THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AT 9PM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM MARTIN COUNTY THROUGH BREATHITT COUNTY AND THEN CONTINUED SOUTHWEST THROUGH MCCREARY COUNTY. THIS LINE IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 11 PM. THE FRONT AT 9 PM EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...ACROSS EASTERN ROWAN COUNTY TO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND THE DEWPOINT WILL DRY SIGNIFICANTLY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 1 AM TONIGHT. WE DID NOT RECEIVE ANY REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. 259 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT NOW INTO WESTERN KY AND WESTERN TN...AND FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z. LATEST RADAR...SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK TRENDS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED OVER WESTERN TN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY. 12Z NAM12 SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. BASED ON THE KJKL VAD WIND PROFILE THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE REMAINS STRONG WITH WINDS OF 25 KNOTS AT 2000 MSL TO 60 KNOTS AT 7000 MSL...BUT STILL FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. BEST LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF KY HOWEVER. 12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET OF 120 KNOTS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY. LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE LACK OF INSTABILITY...WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL FORCING. SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX STILL ZERO TO PLUS FOUR ACROSS EAST KY...BUT DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING OVER WEST TN...BUT STILL ONLY DOWN TO -2. 18Z RUC FORECAST MAXIMUM CAPES 300 TO 400 AT 23Z TO 00Z SO STILL NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE. ALSO THERE APPEARS TO BE A VERY NARROW BAND OF DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 65 POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BWG REPORTING 67 AT 19Z. WILL GO WITH POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING. TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLER AIR MASS MOVES INTO AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS NOTED BY HPC...THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS WERE OUTLIERS AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT EASTERN KY LATE THIS WEEK. THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER WITH THE LOW AND WAS GIVEN CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT FOR THIS FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY JUST TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT THAN DEPICTED IN THE GFS...HAVE SKEWED POPS A BIT LATER THAN WHAT WAS IN THE 00Z MEX MOS. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT IS COMPLETELY FINISHED. STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING US FAIR BUT CHILLY WEATHER. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHAPING UP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN...AND HAVE USED A SMALL CHANCE ON MONDAY. 1135 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINT AT JKL HAS FALLEN FROM 54 TO 47. DEWPOINT AT LOZ IS ALREADY RECOVERING TO 53 AFTER DROPPING TO 49...AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 16Z DEWPOINTS OF 64 AT BWG AND 64 AT HOP. CURRENT WIND FIELDS REMAIN STRONG WITH 50 KNOT JET SHOWING UP ON JKL VAD WIND PROFILE. 0-3 KM HELICITY AT 12Z ILN SOUNDING WAS 662. HOWEVER...BASED ON JKL RADAR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH ACROSS EAST KY...BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 461 NAM FORECAST AT JKL AT 21Z. LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS THE INSTABILITY OR LACK THERE OFF. NONE THE LESS SEVERE THREAT REMAINS HIGH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAY/S GRIDS WITH FORECAST SUITE TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY. JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ && 25 ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1150 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .DISCUSSION... WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO END ALL PRECIPITATION AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A WEAK AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THAT ARE ON A WEAKENING TREND. AT 11:45 PM...THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS WHICH EXTENDED IN A THIN LINE FROM MORGAN TO LEE COUNTY. THERE WERE ALSO SOME WEAK SHOWERS STILL LINGERING OVER HARLAN COUNTY. THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH JACKSON AT ABOUT 10:10 PM TONIGHT. THE DEWPOINT DROPPED TWELVE DEGREES IN TWENTY MINUTES AND THE WIND SHIFTED ABOUT 100 DEGREES. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY ABOUT 1 AM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 917 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 DISCUSSION... UPDATED THE FORECAST TO END THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AT 9PM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM MARTIN COUNTY THROUGH BREATHITT COUNTY AND THEN CONTINUED SOUTHWEST THROUGH MCCREARY COUNTY. THIS LINE IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 11 PM. THE FRONT AT 9 PM EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...ACROSS EASTERN ROWAN COUNTY TO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND THE DEWPOINT WILL DRY SIGNIFICANTLY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 1 AM TONIGHT. WE DID NOT RECEIVE ANY REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. 259 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT NOW INTO WESTERN KY AND WESTERN TN...AND FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z. LATEST RADAR...SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK TRENDS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED OVER WESTERN TN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY. 12Z NAM12 SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. BASED ON THE KJKL VAD WIND PROFILE THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE REMAINS STRONG WITH WINDS OF 25 KNOTS AT 2000 MSL TO 60 KNOTS AT 7000 MSL...BUT STILL FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. BEST LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF KY HOWEVER. 12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET OF 120 KNOTS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY. LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE LACK OF INSTABILITY...WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL FORCING. SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX STILL ZERO TO PLUS FOUR ACROSS EAST KY...BUT DESTABILIZATION OCCURING OVER WEST TN...BUT STILL ONLY DOWN TO -2. 18Z RUC FORECAST MAXIMUM CAPES 300 TO 400 AT 23Z TO 00Z SO STILL NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE. ALSO THERE APPEARS TO BE A VERY NARROW BAND OF DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 65 POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BWG REPORTING 67 AT 19Z. WILL GO WITH POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING. TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLER AIR MASS MOVES INTO AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS NOTED BY HPC...THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS WERE OUTLIERS AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT EASTERN KY LATE THIS WEEK. THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER WITH THE LOW AND WAS GIVEN CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT FOR THIS FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY JUST TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT THAN DEPICTED IN THE GFS...HAVE SKEWED POPS A BIT LATER THAN WHAT WAS IN THE 00Z MEX MOS. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT IS COMPLETELY FINISHED. STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING US FAIR BUT CHILLY WEATHER. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHAPING UP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN...AND HAVE USED A SMALL CHANCE ON MONDAY. 1135 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006 .MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURING ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINT AT JKL HAS FALLEN FROM 54 TO 47. DEWPOINT AT LOZ IS ALREADY RECOVERING TO 53 AFTER DROPPING TO 49...AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 16Z DEWPOINTS OF 64 AT BWG AND 64 AT HOP. CURRENT WIND FIELDS REMAIN STRONG WITH 50 KNOT JET SHOWING UP ON JKL VAD WIND PROFILE. 0-3 KM HELICITY AT 12Z ILN SOUNDING WAS 662. HOWEVER...BASED ON JKL RADAR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH ACROSS EAST KY...BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 461 NAM FORECAST AT JKL AT 21Z. LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS THE INSTABILITY OR LACK THERE OFF. NONE THE LESS SEVERE THREAT REMAINS HIGH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAY/S GRIDS WITH FORECAST SUITE TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY. 513 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006 SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... .MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF I 64...WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS EASTERN KENTUCKY. NORTH OF I 64 CIRRUS BLOWOFF HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROF DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...A 130 KNOT JET EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND A LOW LEVEL 850 MB JET OF 50 KNOTS PLUS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KY...SPC HAS PLACED EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE MODERATE RISK CATEGORY FOR TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LI/S AROUND MINUS 3 AND CAPES FROM 800 TO 1000 AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OVER 300. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED... DAMAGING WINDS ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AND HWO. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCH ATTM...HOWEVER FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. WINDS MAY BE A BIT PROBLEMATIC TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KY...AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START THE DAY. IF CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA A BIT LATER THAN EXPECTED...WINDS MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP WITH MIXING AND A 50 KT PLUS JET MOVING INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH BREEZY WORDING. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ON TUESDAY...AS THE MODELS CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS A BIT EARLY. THE BIG CHANGE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IS THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS ARE OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INTRODUCE A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER MET NUMBERS...EXCEPT FOR TONIGHT...WHEN THE MAV SEEMED TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOWS. JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ && JJ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 343 AM CST TUE MAR 14 2006 .DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TAKING A LOOK AT DPROG/DT FOR GFS DURING THAT TIME FRAME...IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE/850 MB LOW AND QPF FIELDS. NAM HAS BEEN SHIFTING FORCING A LITTLE FARTHER N. BUT..A COMPARISON BETWEEN NAM AND GFS BEST MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENTS AND 850 MB THETA ADVECTION SHOWS VERY SIMILAR PLACEMENT...GENERALLY IN A BAND FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MN. WITH 2-3 G/KG ON THE 285-290 ISENTROPIC SURFACES..WILL RAISE POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY...AND ALSO SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. CANADIAN VERY SIMILAR TO GFS QPF FIELDS AS WELL. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOWING UP ON BIS RADAR. 06Z RUC SHOWING SMALL BUT FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THIS AREA AND IT DOES CARRY INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING..BUT UPGLIDE DOES WEAKEN. MAY ADD SOME FLURRIES WITH THIS. OTHERWISE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP FAIRLY WELL. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BELOW GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE FRESH SNOW. LONGER TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE 00Z GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO NEW SNOW COVER. A DEEP CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATE THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS AN INDICATION THAT IT WILL STRENGTHEN AND ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW. DPROG/DT OF THE GFS MODEL FOR 00Z TUE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS TRENDING TO BE FURTHER WEST WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ALSO FORECAST TO HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. DRY EASTERLY FLOW OUT OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...SHOULD DELAY THE POTENTIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ JPR/WH mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 340 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006 .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACRS PA EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS PRECEDED BY RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY LIGHT. FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE CWA THIS MORNING FROM E TO W...AND SO WILL THE SHOWERS. WILL TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS INSTABILITY IS VERY MUCH LACKING. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE SFC MARINE LAYER ARE VERY WARM...ON THE ORDER OF 65-70F JUST 2 KFT ABOVE THE GROUND. TEMPS AT THE SFC ARE AROUND 50F. THIS SETUP CAN OFTENTIMES RESULT IN DECENT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT 00Z OKX SOUNDING AS WELL AS RUC/NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION. THUS...LCL'S ARE TOO HIGH TO GENERATE MUCH IF ANY CAPE. AS SUCH...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. WILL JUST GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT IS OPTIMAL. HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING ARE QUITE CHALLENGING. MARINE LAYER EXISTS ACRS ALL OF THE OKX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 50F. HOWEVER...JUST TO THE SW...TEMPS ARE IN THE 60-70F RANGE. IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT THE MARINE LAYER COULD GET SCOURED OUT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO JUMP INTO THE 60S VERY QUICKLY. WON'T GO HOG WILD AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL PLAY A RISING TREND IN TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD STAY UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON AS GOOD MIXING TAKES PLACE. TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY FALL OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER SFC AIR FINALLY ADVECTS IN. WIND IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR TODAY. THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP QUITE MARKEDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MIXING WILL ALSO BE QUITE GOOD WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING FROM THE SFC UP TO AROUND 800 MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON GET UP TO AROUND 40 KT. WE COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL FALL JUST SHORT. WILL FORECAST 20-30G45 MPH. FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES INLAND AS VORT LOBES ROTATE AROUND BIG UPPER LOW OVER SERN CANADA. IT'LL BE QUITE BRISK AS WELL WITH GUSTY WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN CANADA SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST. SFC PRES GRADIENT AND MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE QUITE GOOD ON WEDNESDAY SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER SHOT AT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INTERMITTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND FLURRIES INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY THURS WITH AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS AHEAD OF APPROACHING S/W. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOUDS INCREASE QUICKLY THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF CLIPPER-LIKE LOW. 00Z MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE IN TRACK WITH THIS LOW...TAKING IT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST FRIDAY. 00Z GFS ENS MEAN CONCURS. THIS COULD MEAN A LIGHT AND QUICK PRECIP EVENT LATE THURS NITE INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. SINCE WE'RE TALKING THURS NITE AND FRIDAY...WILL ONLY KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING SINCE IF THE TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH...ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY MISS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...EVEN AT THE COAST. HOWEVER...IF PRECIP ONSET IS DELAYED UNTIL SOMETIME FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM UP ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT RAIN MIX. OTHERWISE...LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .HYDROLOGY...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .FIRE WEATHER...THERE APPEARS TO BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS HAVE HAD OVER A 1/4 INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 5 DAYS. OTHERWISE...RH VALUES AND WINDS LOOK TO BE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SINCE ONE OF THE THREE CRITERIA IS RAINFALL GREATER THAN A 1/4 INCH OVER THE PAST 5 DAYS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...NEAR-RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION... GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 12Z TO 15Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS CONTINUING. SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS GENERALLY MVFR IN FOG AND RAIN WITH CEILINGS VFR. SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS STILL HAVE IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY...HOWEVER AS THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED. && .MARINE... WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE INCREASING TO GALE FORCE IN GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS COULD REACH CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. WITH A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW INTO WEDNESDAY AND COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT GALE FORCE GUSTS INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR STORM FORCE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NJ...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ338 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY. ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ338 FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ330-335-355 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ350-353 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY. && $$ PUBLIC...EKSTER AVN/MARINE...MET ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 255 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... BROKEN BAND OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE NC MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS EXPECTED... PRODUCING ONLY MINOR RAINFALL TOTALS AS MUCH OF THE BROAD SCALE FORCING HEADS NORTH OF NC. LATEST RUC REFLECTS CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS--ALBEIT WITH LOW AMOUNTS--MAINLY IN THE EASTERN CWA. TIMING WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AND WILL NEED TO INCLUDE A SMALL POP FOR NORTHWEST SECTIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. DESPITE THE FACT THAT WINDS ALOFT HAVE PICKED UP CONSIDERABLY WITH 88D VWP AND PROFILER DATA SHOWING 50+ KT AT 800-1000 M... THE THREAT OF STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS MARGINAL AS THIS JETLET IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT STEADILY EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDING TO THIS MITIGATION IS A WEAK CAPE THAT BARELY EXCEEDS 100 J/KG... NO POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION... AND A GENERAL LACK OF PHASING OF ANY INSTABILITY AND LIFT MECHANISMS TO GET STRONG SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. THE SHEER SPEED OF ANY CELLS AND THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THESE WINDS ALOFT DOES STILL POSE A MINOR THREAT FOR ENHANCED GUSTS THIS MORNING... AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. EXPECT STRONGLY VEERING WINDS... CLEARING SKIES... AND PLUMMETING DEWPOINTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS TODAY WILL NOT FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WHICH IS CURRENTLY CLOSE TO ITS HIGH TEMPERATURE. DAYLIGHT MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COUPLED WITH THE GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS POSE A NOTABLE FIRE DANGER AND WE WILL COORDINATE WITH STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY. PLEASE SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. WILL HAVE LOWS TONIGHT OF 32-39 WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... FEW CHANGES NEEDED. VORTEX CURRENTLY OFF THE OREGON COAST WEAKENS TO A WAVE AND CROSSES THE COUNTRY... MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN POTENTIAL PRECEDING IT... HOWEVER THEY BOTH ALSO HAVE DIFFLUENT 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND THE GFS/NAM BOTH CRANK OUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIP. WILL HANG ONTO CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THIS PERIOD FEATURES A COLD VORTEX WOBBLING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW COMING ONTO THE WEST COAST AND SHIFTING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND... RESULTING IN HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING FROM THE GULF COAST UP TO MN/WI. THE GFS SEEMS TO CAPITALIZE ON A 160+ KT UPPER JET JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST AND ALLOWS VORTICITY MAXIMA TO CUT THROUGH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND PASS THROUGH SC... AND THESE COMBINE TO PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY AND BEYOND... ALL WITH A COLD HIGH FEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH... AND THE GFS ACTUALLY HINTS AT SOME POTENTIAL NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL AGREEMENT IS STRIKING AND WE WILL NEED TO KEEP THIS ON OUR RADAR BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL MORE DETAILS EMERGE. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS LOOK GOOD AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDING SHIFTING THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS DOWN A CATEGORY. SOLID NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN FAVORS A TREND TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY ONWARD AND WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S EACH DAY. THE FIRE DANGER THREAT LOOKS LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A TREACHEROUS COMBINATION OF TEMPS... LOW DEWPOINTS... A DEEP DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE GETTING UP TO 800 MB... AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... A PREFRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS AT 06Z/14 MARCH. THIS LINE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z/14. ONLY A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS TO THE EAST INCLUDING RDU/RWI AND FAY BETWEEN 10Z-15Z. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW IN WHICH THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL FALL TO MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SW WINDS 10 KT GUST TO 20 KT EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WNW AT 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ALL SITES LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER... WE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE NORTH CAROLINA FOREST SERVICE ON A POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WILL NOT BE A WETTING RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TODAY. THE BEST SHOT AT 0.05 TO 0.25 OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER OUR WESTERN PIEDMONT ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR MID MORNING... AND THE SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW. THESE WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE MORNING... AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WNW WINDS AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 18 AND 23 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT... AND BETWEEN 23 AND 28 PERCENT ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 5K FEET AFTER 18Z. MAX AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 65 NW TO 72 SE. HIGH SPREAD AND GROWTH POTENTIAL FOR ANY FIRE THAT GETS GOING ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. HOPEFULLY... A WETTING RAIN WILL FALL BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY... VERY DRY AIR MASS AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS AT 15-25 MPH AGAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE MAX TEMP SHOULD TOP OUT BETWEEN 60 AND 65 NW TO SE. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL YIELD MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ANY WILDFIRE THAT GETS GOING WOULD HAVE HIGH SPREAD AND GROWTH POTENTIAL. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1219 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006 .AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW NEAR THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN PA. THIS PUTS TAF SITES IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT. STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD BE BEHIND US...BUT GUSTS TO 25/30 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATA CU DECK SPREADING ACROSS TAF SITES. MUCH OF CLOUD DECK IS AROUND 3 KFT. NAM SHOWING STRATA CU DECK LIFTING NORTH WITH SURFACE LOW ON THIS MORNING...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CLEARING TREND OF PREVIOUS TAFS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL HELP GUSTS TO CONTINUE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AROUND 00Z AND GUSTS WILL DIE OFF. TIPTON && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1008 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)... STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT EAST OF FA AND WAS PUSHING THRU ERN OH ATTM. DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING INTO FA WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S IN THE FAR WEST. HAVE UPDATED TO DROP TSTMS AND WEATHER WATCH. REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE NORTH AND 35 MPH IN THE SOUTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 648 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006) AVIATION (00Z-24Z)... STRONG COLD FROONT PUSING INTO WESTERN FA AT THIS TIME AS EVENT BY LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING. STRONG SHEAR WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES UP TO 400 M2/S2. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH MUCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE AID OF THE FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BNDRY. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF STRONG STORMS TO EASTERN TAF SITES FOR FIRST COUPLE HRS OF FCST UNTIL FNT PUSHES THRU AND THEN BRING IN STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. POTENTIAL TEMP SFC/S INTO THE GROUND WITH WINDS AROUND 40KTS IN LOWEST 2K FEET JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF GUSTS TO 35KTS FOR A PERIOD THIS EVE IN NORTH AND LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH. WRAP AROUND MVFR CLDS WORK INTO THE TAFS BETWEEN LATER TNGT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 437 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR UP OF MICHIGAN WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST. FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM KFWA-KIND-KEVV. ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVER A BIT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. LATEST RUC INDICATING SOME WEAK CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AND LIS AROUND -2. CURRENT WEATHER WATCH 88 WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS WILL CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. COULD GET SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SO KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY. SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE PRETTY REASONABLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FWC NUMBERS BEING A BIT TOO COOL. SO STUCK CLOSE TO MAV/MET NUMBERS. RLG (ISSUED 437 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006) LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... FORECAST STARTS OUT MOIST WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. REST OF LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. KEPT TEMPERATURE FORECAST GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV...WHICH IS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065- 070>074-077>082-088 UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY. KY...WIND ADVISORY FOR KYZ091>093 UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY. IN...WIND ADVISORY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075 UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1038 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006 .DISCUSSION... LATE MORNING UPDATE IS OUT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUSPECT A FEW MORE CU WILL INITIALLY POP UP FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH HEATING...BUT ALL AREAS WILL SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT. HAVE CALLED FOR ALL AREAS TO EITHER REMAIN OR BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO LOWERED WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. THINK THIS WILL COVER OUR SUSTAINED SPEEDS BEST...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE HIGHER GUSTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 456 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006 SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. MORE SEASONABLE AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE CWA. WITH STRONG CAA...STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT...AS THE AREA REMAINS EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND A DECENT GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE AREA TODAY...WENT WITH BREEZY WORDING FOR THE ZONES. MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INVERSION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...SO ADDED A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT FOR TONIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR LONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE WINDS...AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE BEST LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER AND MORE CONSISTENT MET NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...BASED ON THE 0Z MODEL RUNS AS FRIDAY NOW LOOKS DRY. ALSO MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND GRIDS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES. 1150 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO END ALL PRECIPITATION AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A WEAK AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THAT ARE ON A WEAKENING TREND. AT 11:45 PM...THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS WHICH EXTENDED IN A THIN LINE FROM MORGAN TO LEE COUNTY. THERE WERE ALSO SOME WEAK SHOWERS STILL LINGERING OVER HARLAN COUNTY. THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH JACKSON AT ABOUT 10:10 PM TONIGHT. THE DEWPOINT DROPPED TWELVE DEGREES IN TWENTY MINUTES AND THE WIND SHIFTED ABOUT 100 DEGREES. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY ABOUT 1 AM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 917 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 DISCUSSION... UPDATED THE FORECAST TO END THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AT 9PM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM MARTIN COUNTY THROUGH BREATHITT COUNTY AND THEN CONTINUED SOUTHWEST THROUGH MCCREARY COUNTY. THIS LINE IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 11 PM. THE FRONT AT 9 PM EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...ACROSS EASTERN ROWAN COUNTY TO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND THE DEWPOINT WILL DRY SIGNIFICANTLY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 1 AM TONIGHT. WE DID NOT RECEIVE ANY REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. 259 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT NOW INTO WESTERN KY AND WESTERN TN...AND FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z. LATEST RADAR...SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK TRENDS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED OVER WESTERN TN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY. 12Z NAM12 SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. BASED ON THE KJKL VAD WIND PROFILE THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE REMAINS STRONG WITH WINDS OF 25 KNOTS AT 2000 MSL TO 60 KNOTS AT 7000 MSL...BUT STILL FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. BEST LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF KY HOWEVER. 12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET OF 120 KNOTS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY. LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE LACK OF INSTABILITY...WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL FORCING. SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX STILL ZERO TO PLUS FOUR ACROSS EAST KY...BUT DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING OVER WEST TN...BUT STILL ONLY DOWN TO -2. 18Z RUC FORECAST MAXIMUM CAPES 300 TO 400 AT 23Z TO 00Z SO STILL NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE. ALSO THERE APPEARS TO BE A VERY NARROW BAND OF DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 65 POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BWG REPORTING 67 AT 19Z. WILL GO WITH POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING. TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLER AIR MASS MOVES INTO AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS NOTED BY HPC...THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS WERE OUTLIERS AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT EASTERN KY LATE THIS WEEK. THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER WITH THE LOW AND WAS GIVEN CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT FOR THIS FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY JUST TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT THAN DEPICTED IN THE GFS...HAVE SKEWED POPS A BIT LATER THAN WHAT WAS IN THE 00Z MEX MOS. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT IS COMPLETELY FINISHED. STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING US FAIR BUT CHILLY WEATHER. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHAPING UP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN...AND HAVE USED A SMALL CHANCE ON MONDAY. && JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ HAL ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 959 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL DELAY ANY MORNING UPDATE AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO EXIT EASTWARD. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO REFLECT REALITY. && .FIRE WEATHER... LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 20 TO 25 PERCENT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM HUMIDITIES AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY ONLY 55 TO 60 PERCENT. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH BOTH DAYS...PERHAPS A BIT GUSTIER WEDNESDAY. WILL UPDATE IF NECESSARY ANY WATCH OR WARNING STATUS AFTER COORDINATION WITH FORESTRY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 255 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... BROKEN BAND OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS EXPECTED... PRODUCING ONLY MINOR RAINFALL TOTALS AS MUCH OF THE BROAD SCALE FORCING HEADS NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA. LATEST RUC MODEL REFLECTS CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS ALBEIT WITH LOW AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN CWA. TIMING WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AND WILL NEED TO INCLUDE A SMALL POP FOR NORTHWEST SECTIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. DESPITE THE FACT THAT WINDS ALOFT HAVE PICKED UP CONSIDERABLY WITH 88D VWP AND PROFILER DATA SHOWING 50+ KNOTS AT 800 TO 1000 METERS... THE THREAT OF STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS MARGINAL AS THIS JETLET IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT STEADILY EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDING TO THIS MITIGATION IS A WEAK CAPE THAT BARELY EXCEEDS 100 J/KG... NO POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION... AND A GENERAL LACK OF PHASING OF ANY INSTABILITY AND LIFT MECHANISMS TO GET STRONG SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. THE SHEER SPEED OF ANY CELLS AND THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THESE WINDS ALOFT DOES STILL POSE A MINOR THREAT FOR ENHANCED GUSTS THIS MORNING... AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. EXPECT STRONGLY VEERING WINDS... CLEARING SKIES... AND PLUMMETING DEWPOINTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS TODAY WILL NOT FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WHICH IS CURRENTLY CLOSE TO ITS HIGH TEMPERATURE. DAYLIGHT MAXIMUMS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COUPLED WITH THE GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS POSE A NOTABLE FIRE DANGER AND WE WILL COORDINATE WITH STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY. PLEASE SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. WILL HAVE LOWS TONIGHT OF 32 TO 39 WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... FEW CHANGES NEEDED. VORTEX CURRENTLY OFF THE OREGON COAST WEAKENS TO A WAVE AND CROSSES THE COUNTRY... MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN POTENTIAL PRECEDING IT... HOWEVER THEY BOTH ALSO HAVE DIFFLUENT 850 MILLIBAR FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND THE GFS/NAM MODELS BOTH CRANK OUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. WILL HANG ONTO CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THIS PERIOD FEATURES A COLD VORTEX WOBBLING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW COMING ONTO THE WEST COAST AND SHIFTING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND... RESULTING IN HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING FROM THE GULF COAST UP TO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE GFS SEEMS TO CAPITALIZE ON A 160+ KNOT UPPER JET JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST AND ALLOWS VORTICITY MAXIMA TO CUT THROUGH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND PASS THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA... AND THESE COMBINE TO PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND BEYOND... ALL WITH A COLD HIGH FEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH... AND THE GFS ACTUALLY HINTS AT SOME POTENTIAL NON LIQUID PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL AGREEMENT IS STRIKING AND WE WILL NEED TO KEEP THIS ON OUR RADAR BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL MORE DETAILS EMERGE. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS LOOK GOOD AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDING SHIFTING THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS DOWN A CATEGORY. SOLID NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN FAVORS A TREND TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ONWARD AND WILL HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 50S EACH DAY. THE FIRE DANGER THREAT LOOKS LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A TREACHEROUS COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES... LOW DEWPOINTS... A DEEP DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE GETTING UP TO 800 MILLIBAR... AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION... A PREFRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AT 06Z/14 MARCH. THIS LINE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z/14. ONLY A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS TO THE EAST INCLUDING RDU/RWI AND FAY BETWEEN 10Z-15Z. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED EXCEPT IN A 3 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW IN WHICH THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL TO MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOT GUST TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALL SITES LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER... WE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE NORTH CAROLINA FOREST SERVICE ON A POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WILL NOT BE A WETTING RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TODAY. THE BEST SHOT AT 0.05 TO 0.25 OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER OUR WESTERN PIEDMONT ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR MID MORNING... AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE MORNING... AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 18 AND 23 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT... AND BETWEEN 23 AND 28 PERCENT ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 5OOO FEET AFTER 18Z. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 65 NORTHWEST TO 72 SOUTHEAST. HIGH SPREAD AND GROWTH POTENTIAL FOR ANY FIRE THAT GETS GOING ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. HOPEFULLY... A WETTING RAIN WILL FALL BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY... VERY DRY AIR MASS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH AGAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SHOULD TOP OUT BETWEEN 60 AND 65 NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL YIELD MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ANY WILDFIRE THAT GETS GOING WOULD HAVE HIGH SPREAD AND GROWTH POTENTIAL. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 929 AM CST TUE MAR 14 2006 .UPDATE...WL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE SERN CWFA BASED ON EXPECTED MIXING OF MOMEMTUM FROM ALOFT/RUC WIND OUTPUT OF AT LEAST 15 KNOT SUSTAINED (FREQUENT 20KT GUSTS LIKELY) AND LOW RH VALUES. WL RETAIN SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE BAYS FOR THIS AFTN. FETCH LIMITATIONS OVR THE NEARSHORE WATERS REQUIRE THAT SUSTAINED WIND REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20KT TO MAINTAIN SCA CONDITIONS...WHICH WL LIKELY OCCUR. SEAS WL REMAIN IN THE SCA CATEGORY OVR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. CURRENT TEMPS FCST REASONABLE...EXCEPT WL LOWER MAX TEMPS ALG THE COAST SLIGHTLY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 0Z BASED ON RECENT VWP/MODEL PROGS. && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES...AND SAN PATRICIO. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ 87...SHORT-TERM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 251 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... FORECAST CHALLENGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPERATURES, AND HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET ON WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. A BARELY CLOSED SYSTEM WAS COMING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE FARTHER SOUTH, A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST INTO THE MIDWEST STATES. THE NORTHWEST U.S. SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT HEADS EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS. A SEGMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT THE SAME TIME. WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REBOUND SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES OVER TODAYS MAXES. THE WARMEST AREAS SHOULD BE ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +18C AND SOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES. MODEL 850 MB WIND SPEEDS ARE PUSHING 50 KTS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WHILE THEY DECREASE SOME WITH DIURNAL MIXING DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SHIFT EAST, THERE IS STILL SOME 40-45 KT WINDS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERSION THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS COULD KEEP US FROM REALIZING FULL MIXING WHICH COULD HOLD SURFACE WINDS BACK SOMEWHAT. THE 13KM DEV RUC SHOWS SURFACE WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 25 KTS WHICH IS SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE FOR AN ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES NOW AND LET THE MID SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT AND CONSIDER THAT POSSIBILITY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MEAN LIMITED CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH. HIGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. DAYS 3-7... A COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL PARK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LAKES BY THIS WEEKEND. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INLAND INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS EVEN SOME WET SNOW. DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE VERY SMALL GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW CEILINGS. DETAILS OF HOW THIS TROUGH WILL EVOLVE ARE NOISE AT THIS POINT. IF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH THEN THERE COULD BE A FEW ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. IF THE SYSTEM GOES NORTH AND WEST OF THIS AREA THEN WE COULD EVENTUALLY GET DRY SLOTTED AT MID LEVELS. AS IS TYPICAL, THE MODEL MOS DIURNAL RANGES WERE MUCH TOO HIGH. MAXES WERE LOWERED TO AROUND 40 FOR SAT-TUE AND LOWS WERE KEPT MAINLY IN THE 30S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 36 71 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 33 71 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 34 74 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 36 73 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 34 69 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 P28 38 69 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ FN02/24 ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 445 PM EST TUE MAR 14 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS AND WINDS. WV IMAGERY...12Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPR LVL FLOW BTWN THE DEPARTING LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC AND A RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. A WEAK SHRTWV/VORT WAS SLIDING SE INTO NW WI. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV TROF WAS MOVING ONSHORE INTO NRN CA. AT THE SFC(19Z)...A 981 MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SE OF JAMES BAY WHILE A RDG EXTENDED FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINED (14 MB PRES W-E PRES DIFFERENCE ACRS THE LAKE). WITH WINDS STILL GUSTING TO NEAR 35 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND E OF MARQUETTE. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY LIGHT LES...WEBCAMS AND SFC OBS SHOWED THAT VSBYS HAD IMPROVED TO AT LEAST 3-5SM IN MOST LOCATIONS. UPSTREAM LOW LVL MOISTURE HAD THINNED OUT...WITH DIURNAL MIXING DROPPING SFC DEWPOINTS TO 10 TO 15 F. AS A RESULT...LES HAD SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED OVER NRN UPR MI WITH AS THE RADAR SHOWED MAINLY JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. COMBINATION OF LAKE MOISTURE AND MID MARCH SFC HEATING HAS SUPPORTED MOST PROMINENT REMAINING -SHSN OVER N CNTRL UPR MI. TONIGHT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE -12C TO -14C RANGE AND INVERSION HGTS NEAR 4K FT...PER TAMDAR SNDGS...AND WITH QVECTOR DIV / SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE / INCREASING...LES INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND AID OF LAND BREEZES...EXPECT THAT WITH CONTINUING CYCLONIC NW FLOW...THE SHSN WILL INCREASE AGAIN EAST OF MARQUETTE WHERE FETCH LENGTH IS MORE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW INCHES. OVER THE WEST...EVEN DRIER AIR AND MORE ACYC FLOW WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. SINCE THE GRADIENT IS FCST TO ONLY SLOWLY WEAKEN...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ENOUGH AREAS OF BLSN IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS OVER THE KEWEENAW AND E OF MARQUETTE TO REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLSN ADVY. WED...MID LVL SHRTWV RDG AND SFC RDG BUILD INTO THE WRN LAKES FURTHER SUPPRESSING INVERSION HGTS ALONG WITH UPSTREAM BNDRY LYR DRYING WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL BRING AN END TO ANY ACCUMULATING LES. WED NIGHT INTO THU...MDLS SUGGEST THAT THE NRN CA SHRTWV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARD THE SRN LAKES. EVEN THE FARTHEST NORTH GFS WOULD ONLY BARELY BRUSH THE WI BORDER LOCATIONS WITH -SN. WITH COMPROMISE TOWARD THE UKMET/ECMWF...GOING FCST OF ONLY SLGT CHANCE INTO SRN MNM COUNTY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NRLY FLOW AND CAA DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE OF LOW MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES FROM NW ONTARIO. REGARDLESS OF DIFFERENCES BTWN THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET AND THE GFS WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 LOW MOVING TO THE N OR NW OF LK SUPERIOR...MDLS H8 TEMPS TO AROUND -15C WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN INTO NRN UPR MI. HOWEVER...12Z GFS FCST SNDGS WITH 875 MB INVERSION HGT AND A DRY LYR TO 700 MB WOULD ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SAT-TUE...GLBL MDLS SUGGEST THAT BY SUN...SFC HIGH PRES AND LOWER INVERIONS HGTS SHOULD END THE LES. EVEN THOUGH THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF/UKMET SCENARIO WOULD BE PREFERRED WITH THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN...SOME WEIGHT GIVEN TOWARD HPC PREFFERED 00Z GFS WHICH WOULD ALLOW LOBES OF SHRTWV ENERGY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKES FROM NRN ONTARIO. SO...POSSIBILITY OF SOME -SHSN WAS INCLUDED FOR TUE. && .MQT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR MIZ001-003 AND MIZ006-007-085 UNTIL 6 AM EST. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1143 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN OF THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A DEEP LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY...A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. A ZONAL FLOW EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP LOW SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY...A WEAK LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CENTRAL CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE JAMES BAY LOW IS PRODUCING STRONG NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LAKE-850MB DELTA-T'S ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15C. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW ARE PRODUCING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS OVER MINNESOTA WRAPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS IS GENERATING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER MINNESOTA. THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL EDGE EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC TODAY. THE SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. AS THE MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GALE FORCE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE WEAKER GRADIENTS WILL CAUSE A WEAKENING OF THE WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE DELTA-T'S ARE COOL ENOUGH AND THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. SINCE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...THE LES WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE BLUSTERY OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THE SNOWFALL HAVE DIMINISHED AND VISIBILITY HAVE IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY TO 2 MILES OR BETTER AT THE REPORTING STATION. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO EXPIRE AND TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOW SNOW ADVISORY. PLAN TO DROP THE GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WINDS DIE DOWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGEST OVER THE EAST SO WILL KEEP BLIZZARD WARNINGS GOING FOR ALGER COUNTY AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST FOR MIZ002-004>005-009-084. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007-014-085. GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ DLG mi