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Overview

Estimative Tradecraft Essays

Bibliographies

Intelligence Related Web sites

Intelligence and the Intelligence Community

Analysis

Estimative Tradecraft

Case Studies

Private Sector Techniques and Experiences

BIBLIOGRAPHIES
Intelligence and the Intelligence Community
Berkowitz, Bruce D. and Allan E. Goodman, Best Truth: Intelligence in the Information Age (New Haven: Yale University Press) 2000)
George, Roger Z. and Robert D. Kline, eds., Intelligence and the National Security Strategist: Enduring Issues and Challenges, (Washington: National Defense University Press, 2004)
Herman, Michael, Intelligence Power in Peace and War, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996)
Johnson, Loch K, Bombs, Bugs, Drugs, And Thugs: Intelligence And America's Quest for Security (New York: New York University Press, 2000)
Johnson, Loch K. and James J. Wirtz, eds., Strategic Intelligence: Windows into a Secret World, (Los Angeles: Roxbury Publishing Company, 2004)
Lowenthal, Mark M. Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy, (Washington: CQ Press, 2000)
Treverton, Gregory F., Reshaping National Intelligence for an Age of Information, (Cambridge University Press, 2001)
 

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Analysis
Clark, Robert M., Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach, (Washington: CQ Press, 2004)
Heuer, Jr., Richards J., Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, (Washington: Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1999)
 

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Estimative Tradecraft
Ford, Harold P., Estimative Intelligence: The Purposes and Problems of National Intelligence Estimating, (Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 1993)
Nye, Jr., Joseph S., "Peering into the Future," Foreign Affairs, 77, 4 July/August 1994, 82-93
Neustadt, Richard E. and Ernest R. May, Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-Makers, (New York: Free Press, 1986)
Steury, Donald P. ed., Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates: Collected Essays, (Washington: Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1994)
Treverton, Gregory F., "Estimating Beyond the Cold War," Defense Intelligence Journal, 3, 2 (Fall 1994)
 

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Case Studies
Iraq. Cirincione, Joseph and others, WMD in Iraq: Evidence and Implications, (Washington: Carnegie Endowment, January 2004), The Key Judgments of the October 2002 NIE, declassified
Lebanon. Lebanon and the Intelligence Community, Kennedy School of Government Case C16-89-884, 1989
Soviet missiles. The SS-9 Controversy: Intelligence as Political Football, Kennedy School of Government Case C15-88-859.0, 1988
Soviet missiles. U.S. Congress. Senate. Select Committee on Intelligence. Subcommittee on Collection, Production, & Quality. The National Intelligence Estimates A-B Team Episode Concerning Soviet Strategic Capability & Objectives. 95th Cong., 2d sess., 1978
Yugoslavia. Yugoslavia Transformed, NIE 15-90 (October 1990). See also Shreeve, Thomas, W. "The Intelligence Community Case Method Program: A National Intelligence Estimate on Yugoslavia," in George, Roger Z. and Robert D. Kline, eds., Intelligence and the National Security Strategist: Enduring Issues and Challenges, (Washington: National Defense University Press, 2004)
 

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Private Sector Techniques and Experience in Framing the Future and Strategic Planning
Ansoff, I. H., "Strategic Issues Management," Strategic Management Journal, 1, 1980, pp. 131-148
Ascher, William and William H. Overholt, Strategic Planning and Forecasting: Political Risk and Economic Opportunity, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1983
Ayres, R. U., Technological Forecasting and Long-Range Planning, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1969
Baets, Walter, "Corporate Strategic Planning in an Uncertain Environment," European Journal of Operational Research, V32, 1986, pp. 169-181
Barnett, W. P., and R. A. Burgelman, "Evolutionary Perspectives on Strategy," Strategic Management Journal, vol. 17, 1996, pp. 5-19
Bartlett, C. A., and S. Ghosal, "Changing the Role of Top Management: Beyond Strategy to Purpose," Harvard Business Review, November/December 1994, pp. 79-88
Beinhocker, Eric D., "Robust Adaptive Strategies," Sloan Management Review, Spring 1999
Bernstein, Peter, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, John Wiley & Sons (1996)
Bonn, I., and C. Christodoulou, "From Strategic Planning to Strategic Management," Long Range Planning, 29(4), 1996, pp. 543-551
Boshoff, H., "Testing Plans Against Alternative Futures," Long Range Planning, vol. 22, no. 5, 1987, 99. 69-75
Bracken, Paul, Strategic Planning for National Security: Lessons from Business Experience, RAND, N-3005-DAG/USDP, February 1990
Brauers, J., and M. Wever, "A New Method of Scenario Analysis for Strategic Planning," Journal of Forecasting, vol. 7, 1988, pp. 31-47
Breheny, M. J., "The Renaissance of Strategic Planning?", Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, vol. 18, no. 2, 1991, pp. 233-249
Bryson, John M. and William D. Roering, "Initiation of Strategic Planning by Governments," Public Administration Review, V48, N6, 1988, pp. 995-1004
Builder, C. H., The Masks of War, The Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, MD (1989)
Builder, Carl H., and James A. Dewar, "A Time for Planning? If Not Now, When?", Parameters, Summer 1994
Bungay, S. and M. Goold, "Creating a Strategic Control System," Long Range Planning, 24(3), 1991, pp. 32-39
Capon, H., and J. Hulbert, "The Integration of Forecasting and Strategic Planning," International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 1 1985, pp. 123-133
Chesnutt, Thomas W., "Marketing Uncertainties in Policy Analysis: Why It Does Not Sell and How to Repackage It Into Something That Does," A&N Technical Services, Inc. (a paper presented on October 30, 1992 at the Association for Policy Analysis and Management Conference in Denver, Colorado)
Child, J., "Organizational Structure, Environment and Performance: The Role of Strategic Choice," Sociology, vol. 6, 1972
Christensen, Clayton M., "Making Strategy: Learning by Doing," Harvard Business Review, November-December 1997
Collis, D. J., "The Strategic Management of Uncertainty," Harvard Business School Working Paper #89-019, Rev. 3/1991 a
Corporate Strategy Board, Stall Points: Barriers to Growth for the Large Corporate Enterprise, Corporate Executive Board, Washington, D.C., 1998
Corporate Strategy Board, Proceeding in Daylight: Frontier Practices for Challenging Strategic Assumptions, Corporate Executive Board, Washington, D.C., 1999
Courtney, Hugh, Jane Kirkland, and Patrick Viguerie, "Strategy Under Uncertainty," Harvard Business Review, November-December 1997
Dalkey, Norman C., The Delphi Method: An Experimental Study of Group Opinion, The RAND Corporation, RM-5888-PR, June 1968
Pas, T. K., "Time: The Hidden Dimension in Strategic Planning," Long-Range Planning, Vol. 24, no.3, 1991, pp. 49-57
Davis, P. and Zalmay M. Khalilzad, A Composite Approach to Air Force Planning, MR787-AF, RAND, 1996
De Gues, Arie P., "Planning as Learning," Harvard Business Review on Managing Uncertainty, Harvard Business School Press (1999)
Deshpande, R. and A. Parasuraman, "Linking Corporate Culture to Strategic Planning," Business Horizons, May/June 1986, pp. 28-37
Dewar, James A., Carl H. Builder, William M. Hix, and Morlie H. Levin, Assumption-Based Planning: A Planning Tool For Very Uncertain Times, MR-114-A, RAND, 1993
Dewar, J. A. and M. H. Levin, Assumption-Based Planning for Army 21, R-4172-A, RAND, 1992
DeWeerd, H. A., "Political-Military Scenarios," P-3535, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, February, 1967
DeWeerd, H. A., "A Contextual Approach to Scenario Construction," P-5084, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, September 1973
Dixit, A. K., and B. Nalebuff, Thinking Strategically, Norton, New York (1991)
Dixit, A. K., and R. S. Pindyck, Investment Under Uncertainty, Princeton, New Jersey, Princeton University Press (1994)
Drucker, Peter F., Managing in a Time of Great Change, Truman Talley Books, New York (1999)
Duncan, N. E., and P. Wack, "Scenarios Designed to Improve Decision Making," Planning Review, July/August 1994, pp. 25
Dutton, J. E.; and R. B. Duncan, "The Influence of the Strategic Planning Process on Strategic Change," Strategic Management Journal, vol. 8, 1987, pp. 103-116
Dutton, J. E., and E. Ottensmeyer, "Strategic Issues Management Systems: Forms, Functions, and Contexts," Academy of Management Review, 12(2), 1987
Einhorn, H. J., and R. M. Hogarth, "Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Probabilistic Inference," Psychological Review, vol. 92, 1985, pp. 18-46
Fahey, Liam and Robert M. Randall, Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios, John Wiley & Sons (1997)
Fischoff, B., Slovic, P., and Lichtenstein, S., "Fault Trees: Sensitivity of Estimated. Failure Probabilities to Problem Representation," Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 4 (1977)
Ford, H., My Life and Work, Doubleday, Paye and Company, Garden City, N.Y., (1922) as reprinted by Ayer Company Publishers, Salem, N.H., (1987), pp. 67-68
Freudenburg, W. J., "Heuristics, biases, and the not-so-general publics: Expertise and error in the assessment of risks," in S. Krimsky and D. Golding (Eds.) Social Theories of Risk, Praeger (1992)
Garvin, D. A., "Building a Learning Organization," Harvard Business Review, July/August 1993, pp: 78-91
Ghosal, S., and C. A. Bartlett, "Changing the Role of Top Management: Beyond Structure to Processes," Harvard Business Review, January/February 1995, pp. 86-96
Ginter, P.M., A. C. Rucks, and W. J. Duncan, "Planners' Perceptions of the Strategic Management Process." Journal of Management Studies, XXII, 1985, pp. 581-596
Glaister, Keith W. and J. Richard Falshaw, "Strategic Planning: Still Going Strong?," Long-Range Planning, vol. 21, No. 1, 1999
Godet, M., Scenarios and Strategic Management, Butterworths Scientific, Ltd., London (1987)
Gordon, Theodore J., "Futures Research: Did It Meet Its Promise, Can It Meet Its Promise?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, V36, 1989, pp. 21-36
Gordon, T. J., and O. Helmer, "An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts", Management Science, April, 1963
Gray, Daniel H., "Uses and Misuses of Strategic Planning," Harvard Business Review, V64, Nl, 1986, pp. 89-97
Haeckel, S. H., and A. J. Slywotzky, Adaptive Enterprise: Creating and Leading Sense-And-Respond Organizations, Harvard Business School Press, Cambridge, MA (1999)
Hamel, G., and C. K. Prahalad, Competing for the Future, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA (1994)
Harvard Business Review on Managing Uncertainty, Harvard Business School Press (1999)
Hayes, R. H., "Strategic Planning — Forward in Reverse?", Harvard Business Review, November/December 1985, pp. 111-119
Helmer, Olaf, "The Use of War-Gaming in RAND's Limited-War Studies," D-5799, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, December 4, 1958
Heracleous, L., "Strategic Thinking or Strategic Planning?", Long Range Planning, vol. 31, no. 3, 1998, pp. 481-487
Hiam, A., "Exposing Four Myths of Strategic Planning," Journal of Business Strategy, vol. 11, no. 5, September/October 1990, pp. 23-28
Hill, C. W. L. and G. R. Jones, Strategic Management Theory: An Integrated Approach, (3rd edition) Houghton Mifflin, Boston (1995)

Hitch, C., Uncertainties in Operations Research, P-1959, RAND, Santa Monica, April 1960
Hodges, James S., Onward Through the Fog: Uncertainty and Management Adaptation in Systems Analysis and Design, R-3760-AF/A/OSD, RAND, Santa Monica, July 1990
Hogarth, R. M. and Makridakis, S., "Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation," Management Science, 27, 1981
Huss, William R. and Edward J. Horton, "Scenario Planning: What Style Should You Use?," Long Range Planning, V20, N4, 1987, pp. 21-29
Igor, H., "Conceptual Underpinnings of Systematic Strategic Management," ANSOFF European Journal of Operational Research, 1985, pp. 2-19
Ives, Jeanette R., "Articulating Values and Assumptions for Strategic Planning," Nursing Management, January 1991, pp. 38-39
Jacobson, Gary and John Hillkirk, Xerox: American Samurai, Collier Books, New York (1986), p. 71
Janis, I. and L. Mann, Decision Making, The Free Press, New York (1977)
Kahn, H., and A. J. Wiener, The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years, The Macmillan Company, New York (1967)
Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A, "The Simulation Heuristic," in D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press (1982)
Karagozoglu, N. and R. Seglund, "Strategic Planning for a Public Sector Enterprise, Long Range Planning, vol. 22, 1989, pp. 121-125
Kay, Alan C. "Predicting the Future"
Kellogg, M. K., J. Thorne and P. W. Huber, Federal Telecommunications Law, Little Brown and Company, Boston (1992)
King, W. R., "Using Strategic Issue Analysis," Long Range Planning, 15, 1982, pp. 548-570
Kotter, J. P., Leading Change, Harvard Business School Press, Cambridge, MA (1996)
Krimsky, S., and D. Golding (Eds) Social Theories of Risk, Praeger (1992)
Kukalis, Sal, "Strategic Planning in Large US Corporations—A Survey," Omega International Journal of Management Science, V 16, N5, 1988, pp. 393-404
Langley, A., "The Roles of Formal Strategic Planning," Long Range Planning, vol. 21, no. 3, 1988, pp. 40-50
Leemhuis, J. P., "Using Scenarios to Develop Strategies," Long Range Planning, 18(2), 1985, pp. 30-37
Levin, Benjamin, "Squaring a Circle - Strategic Planning in Government," Canadian Public Administration, V28, N4, 1985, pp. 600-605
Liedtka, J. M., "Linking Strategic Thinking with Strategic Planning," Strategy and Leadership, September/October 1998, pp. 30-35
Lorange, P., F. Scott Morton and S. Ghoshal, Strategic Control Systems, West Publishing Company, St. Paul, MN, (1986)
March, James G., A Primer on Decision Making: How Decisions Happen, The Free Press (1994)
Markides, Constantinos C., "A Dynamic View of Strategy," Sloan Management Review, Spring 1999
Martino, J. P., Technological Forecasting for Decisionmaking, Elsevier, New York, 1972
Mason, D. H., "Scenario-Based Planning: Decision Model for the Learning Organization," Planning Review, March/April 1994, pp. 6-19
Mason, Richard O., and Ian I. Mitroff, Challenging Strategic Planning Assumptions: Theory, Cases and Techniques, John Wiley and Sons, 1981
Martino, J. P., Technological Forecasting for Decisionmaking, Elsevier, New York, 1972
McGrath, Rita Gunther, and Ian C. Macmillan, "Discovery-Driven Planning," Harvard Business Review on Managing Uncertainty, Harvard Business School Press, 1999
McNeil, B. J., "On the elicitation of preferences for alternative therapies," New England Journal of Medicine, vol. 306, 1982, pp.1259-1262
Milburn, M. A., "Sources of Bias in the Prediction of Future Events," Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 21 (1978)
Mintzberg, Henry, "The Fall and Rise of Strategic Planning," Harvard Business Review, January/February 1994, pp. 107-114
Mintzberg, Henry, The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning, The Free Press (1994)
Mintzberg, H. and J. Lampel, "Reflections on the Strategy Process," Sloan Management Review, Spring, 1999
Mitchell, D. J., J. E. Russo and N. Pennington, "Back to the Future: Temporal Perspective in the Explanation of Events," Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, vol. 2, 1989, pp. 25-38
Mitroff, I. I., and R. O. Mason, "Business Policy and Metaphysics: Some Philosophical Considerations," Academy of Management Review, vol. 7, no. 3, 1982, pp. 361-371
Muralidharan, Raman, "Strategic Control for Fast- moving Markets: Updating the Strategy and Monitoring Performance," Long-Range Planning, Vol. 30, February, 1997
Murphy A. H., and R. L. Winkler "Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature," Applied Statistics, Vol 26, 1974
Newman, W. H., E. K. Warren, and J. E. Schnee, The Process of Management: Strategy, Action, Results, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N. J., (1982), p. 22
Pascale, R., M. Millemann, and L. Gioja, "Changing the Way We Change," Harvard Business Review, November/December 1997, pp.127-139
Peters, T., A Passion for Excellence, Warner Books (1989)
Pistorius, Carl W. I., and James M. Utterback, "The Death Knells of Mature Technologies," Technologies Forecasting and Social Change, 50, 1995
Porter, M. E. Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors, Free Press, New York (1980)
Porter, M., "Towards a Dynamic Theory of Strategy," Strategic Management Journal, 12, 1991, pp. 95-117
Preble, J. F., "Toward a Comprehensive System of Strategic Control," Journal of Management Studies, 29, 1992, pp. 391-409
Raiffa, Howard, Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty, College Custom Series, McGraw-Hill (1997) (first published in 1968)
Ridgway, Matthew B., Soldier: The Memoirs of Matthew B. Ridgway, Harper, New York, 1956
Roush, C. H., and B. C. Ball, "Controlling the Implementation of Strategy," Managerial Planning, November/December 1980, pp. 3-12
Rowe, A., R. Mason and K. Dickel, Strategic Management and Planning: A Methodological Approach, Addison-Wesley, Reading, Mass. (1982)
Russell, Colonel W. N., "Strategic Planning for the Armed Forces," Long Range Planning, V 19, N4, 1986, pp. 41-46
Sackman, Harold, Delphi Critique, Lexington Books, Massachusetts (1975)
Schaars, S. P., "How to Develop and Use Scenarios," Long Range Planning, 20(1), 1987, pp. 105-114
Schilit, W. K., "What's the Logic of Strategic Planning?", Management Review, November 1988, pp. 41-43
Schlesinger, James R., "Organizational Structures and Planning," P-3316, RAND, Santa Monica, 1966
Schoemaker, P. J. H., "When and How to Use Scenario Planning: A Heuristic Approach with Illustration, Journal of Forecasting, vol. 10, 1991, pp. 549-564
Schoemaker, P. J. H., "Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation," Strategic Management Review, Vol. 14, 1993, pp. 193-213
Schoemaker, P. J. H., "Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking," Sloan Management Review, Winter 1995, pp. 25-40
Schreyogg, G., and H. Steinmann, "Strategic Control, a New Perspective," Academy of Management Review, 12, 1987, pp. 91-103
Schwartz, P. The Art of the Long View, New York, Doubleday (1991)
Shaklee, H., and Fischhoff, B., "Strategies of Information Search in Causal Analysis," Memory and Cognition, 10 (1982)
Shipley, R., and R. Newkirk, "Visioning: Did Anybody See Where It Came From?", Journal of Planning Literature, Vol. 12, no. 4, May 1998, pp. 407-415
Senge, P. M., The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, New York, Doubleday/Currency (1990)
Setear, J. K., C. H. Builder, M. D. Baccus and W. Madewell, The Army in a Changing World: The Role of Organizational Vision, R-3882-A, RAND, Santa Monica, June 1990
Simons, R., "How New Top Managers Use Control Systems as Levers of Strategic Renewal," Strategic Management Journal, vol. 15,1994, pp. 169-189
Simpson, Daniel G., "Why Most Strategic Planning is a Waste of Time and What You Can Do About It," Long Range Planning, vol. 31, no. 3, 1998
Simpson, Daniel G., "Why Most Strategic Planning is a Waste of Time and What You Can Do About It — Part II," Long Range Planning, vol. 31, no. 4, 1998
Sloman, S. A., "When Explanations Compete: The Role of Explanatory Coherence on Judgments of Likelihood," Cognition, 52 (1994)
Smith, P. M., J. P. Allen, J. H. Stewart II, and F. D. Whitehouse, Creating Strategic Vision, National Defense University Press, Washington, DC (1987)
Stubbart, Charles "Why We Need a Revolution in Strategic Planning," Long Range Planning, V 18, N6, 1985, pp. 68-76
Sullivan, G. R., and M. V. Harper, Hope is Not a Method, Times Business, Random House, New York (1996)
Taylor, B., "The Return of Strategic Planning — Once More with Feeling," Long Range Planning, vol. 30, no. 3, 1997, pp. 334-344
Teisberg, E. O., "Strategic Response to Uncertainty," Harvard Business School case, #N9-391-192, Rev. 4/11/1991 a
Thompson, A. A., and A. J. Strickland, Strategic Management: Concepts and Cases, (4th edition), Prentice Hall, Hemel Hempstead (1997)
TRADOC Pamphlet 525-5, A Concept for the Evolution of Full-Dimensional Operations for the Strategic Army of the Early Twenty-First Century, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, August 1994
Toffler, Alvin, The Adaptive Corporation, McGraw-Hill, 1985
Vaill, P. B.,"The Purposing of High Performing Systems," Organizational Dynamics, Autumn 1982, pp. 23-39
van der Heijden, Kees, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, John Wiley & Sons (1996)
Van Schie, E. C. M., and Van der Pligt, J., "Influence diagrams and fault trees: The role of salience and anchoring," in K. Borcherding, O. I. Larichev, and D. M. Messick (Eds.), Contemporary Issues in Decision Making, North Holland: Elsevier Science (1990)
Wack, P., "Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead," Harvard Business Review, September/October 1985, pp. 73-89
Wack, P., "Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids," Harvard Business Review, November/December 1985, pp. 138-150
Webster, James, William E. Reif, and Jeffry S. Bracker, "The Manager's Guide to Strategic Planning Tools and Techniques," Planning Review, November/December 1989, pp. 4-13
Weiner, M. G., "Gaming Limited War," P-2123, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, October 27, 1960
Wells, Stuart, Choosing the Future: The Power of Strategic Thinking, Butterworth-Heinemann (1998)
Wernerfelt, B. and A. Karnani, "Competitive Strategy Under Uncertainty," Strategic Management Journal, 8 (2), 1987, pp. 187-194
Wilson, David C., David J. Hickson, and Susan Miller, "How Organizations Can Overbalance," American Behavioral Scientist, vol. 39, no. 8, August 1996
Wilson, I., "The State of Strategic Planning — What Went Wrong? What Goes Right?," Tech. Forecasting and Social Change, V37, N2, 1990, pp. 103-110
Wilson, I., "Strategic Planning isn't Dead — it Changed," Long Range Planning 27(4), 1994, pp. 12-24
Wilson, I., "Strategic Planning for the Millennium," Long Range Planning, vol. 31, no. 4, 1998, pp. 507-513
Winkler, J. D., H. J. Shukiar, J. A. Dewar, M. W. Lewis, B. Benjamin, J. M. Sollinger, J. E. Peters, and H. J. Thie, Future Leader Development of Army Noncommissioned Officers: Workshop Results, CF-138-A, RAND, Santa Monica, CA., 1998
 

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