MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1111 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR WRN/NRN ME
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 021711Z - 030115Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES AROUND 1 INCH WILL
   DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR WRN/NRN ME THROUGH
   03/00Z. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY OCCUR NORTH OF AN
   AXIS FROM IZG TO NEAR HUL.
   
   RECENT TRENDS IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT VERY STRONG
   DYNAMIC FORCING HAD DEVELOPED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND IN RESPONSE TO
   INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND DIABATIC EFFECTS AS UPPER SYSTEM
   BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. 02/16Z SURFACE
   ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 0 DEG C WET-BULB ISOTHERM EXTENDED FROM NEAR
   JUST NORTH OF FRYEBURG /IZG/ TO HOULTON /HUL/. SUSTENANCE OF
   STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL AID IN NEWD
   ADVANCEMENT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM MA/NH INTO ME THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS OVER SRN NH...MA AND SRN NY
   INDICATE 0.10 TO 0.20 IN/H RAINFALL RATES. THUS...SNOWFALL RATES
   FROM 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE THE RESULT OVER
   INTERIOR WRN/NRN ME...WHERE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE WILL REMAIN
   FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL
   MOTION PROFILE WILL REMAIN NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
   ME...LOCATIONS NORTH OF A IZG TO HUL AXIS SHOULD SEE BETWEEN 3-5
   HOURS OF 1 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES PRIOR TO MID LEVEL
   SUBSIDENCE/DRY SLOT ADVANCEMENT INTO THE REGION. LAGGING LOW
   LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD LIMIT MUCH SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
   SURFACE FREEZING/HEAVY SNOW AXIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/02/2003
   
   
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