FXUS04 KWBC 230701 PAA
QPFPFD

 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
301 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 24/1200 UTC THRU JUL 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

...PRELIM DAY 1...

...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STG MIDLVL VORTEX OVR HUDSON BAY...2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS FM THE NRM...WL SPREAD IT'S INFLUENCE ACRS THE ERN
2/3RDS OF THE U.S. THIS PD WITH A 1030 MB HI SETTLG INTO THE
NCNTRL U.S. THIS HI WL PUSH THE CDFNT THAT CURRENTLY XTNDS
ACRS THE ERN GRT LKS INTO THE PLNS EVEN FURTHER S. SVRL
PIECES OF MIDLVL ENERGY ARE FCST TO RIDE THRU THE BASE OF THE
TROF XTNDG FM THE VORTEX INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE NATION
THEREBY SUPPORTG AREAS OF MOD TO PSBLY HVY RNS NR THE BNDRY.

...ERN U.S...
THE MAIN FNTL BNDRY IS STILL BACK THRU THE ERN GRT LKS INTO
THE OH VLY ERLY THIS MRNG AND WL CONT TO MOV SLOLY TWD THE
SE IN RESPONSE TO A STG SHRTWV TROF SWEEPG THRU THE
GRT LKS. AHD OF THE FNT A COUPLE OF WEAK TROFS XTNDG FM NEW
ENG INTO THE MID ATLC REGION...AND OVR THE CNTRL APLCHNS
WL HELP FOCUS LIFT/LOLVL MSTR UNTIL THE FNT ARRIVES. MSTR
THRU THE REGION REMAINS DEEP WITH A PLUME OF PWS FM 1.75-2.00
INCHES. THE CLSD LOW OFF THE MID ATLC CST IS FCST TO WEAKEN
AND SHEAR APART...WHILE A SHRTWV NOW ALNG THE CST BCMS THE
NEXT PSBL MIDLVL CLSD LOW. THE MID/UPR LVL FLOW OVR THE
REGION IS DIFL AND THE MDLS SHOW INCRSG UPR DVRG LATER TNGT
AS A JET STREAK LIFTS ACRS NRN NEW ENG. ONE PRBLM SEEMS TO BE
THE LACK OF INSTBLTY. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVC THIS
MRNG...BUT THE DEEP MSTR COMBINED WITH HEATG SHLD EASILY
SUPPORT BKN/OVC CONDS FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS MRNG THAT
SHLD LIMIT HEATG. ALSO...WE ARE MISSG ORGANIZED LIFT MOVG OVR
THE REGION. MDLS ARE IN GNRL AGREEMENT WITH A STRIPE OF MOD
TO PSBLY HVY RNS FM NEW ENG INTO THE MID ATLC CSTL AREAS.
ALSO...THE MDLS SHOW ADDTNL PCPN ALNG THE MAIN CDFNT MOVG
INTO THE CNTRL APLCHNS. THE GFS DOES HAVE SOME FEEDBACK
PRBLMS OVR THE OH VLY. SEE NO REASON TO FOLLOW IT'S LEAD IN
THIS AREA. WITHOUT STG LIFT/INSTBLTY...THINK THE MDLS MGT BE
A LITTLE TOO GENEROUS WITH THE PCPN THRU THE REGION.

...FL...
AFTN HEATG AND SEA BREEZE CVRG ALNG THE WCST SHLD SUPPORT
SOME BRIEF RW THIS AFTN/EVE...BUT THE LACK OF DEEP LYRD MSTR
SHLD PRECLUDE HVY RNFL.

...WRN GULF STS...
THE TUTT LOW ROTATG INTO THE RIO GRNDE VLY THIS MRNG WL CONT
TO DRAW UPON DEEPER MSTR THAT WL FUEL WDLY SCT MRNG/AFTN
RW/TRW ACRS THE REGION. NO STG LOLVL FOCUS SO JUST PAINTED
SOME LGT RNFL ACRS THE REGION.

...CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
MORE OF A WINTER TYPE RNFL EVENT SHAPG UP OVR THIS AREA AS
THE SFC/8H FNTS STALL ACRS THE REGION WITH INCRSG SRLY
FLOW/ISENTROPIC LIFT TNGT. ONE SHRTWV...NOW OVR SWRN KS SHLD
MOV SLOLY EWD TDA AND SUPPORT CNVCTN NR THE SFC/8H
BNDRYS...WHILE A SCND SYS XPCD TO DROP SEWD INTO THE CNTRL HI
PLNS TNGT WL SUPPORT INCRSG SRLY FLOW AND A NWD SHFT OF THE
PCPN LATER TNGT. THIS MRNG'S CNVCTN IS CLEARLY ELEVATED AND
THINK MOST OF THE PCPN WITH THIS EVENT WL BE ELEVATED. STG
HEATG/CVRG ALNG THE CDFNT THIS AFTN SHLD SUPPORT CNVCTN FIRG
NR THE BNDRY ACRS OK INTO ARK AND PSBLY THE LWR MS VLY. MDLS
SEEM TOO LGT WITH QPF CONSIDERG THE AMT OF INSTBLTY AND LACK
OF CAP. MSTR THRU THE REGION WL REMAIN DEEP WITH PWS NR 1.75
INCHES AND LWR/MID TEEN 8H DWPTS. MDLS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE
WITH HVY RNS N OF THE SFC BNDRY AND NR THE 8H BNDRY THIS PD.
THE GFS IS SHOWG SIGNS OF FEEDBACK AS IT TAKES A VRY ROUND
AREA OF 8H CVRG AND ADVCTS IT EWD INTO MO BY THE END OF THE
PD. THE ETA/NGM QPF AMTS ARE NOT MUCH LGTR...BUT THEIR PSTN
SEEMS MORE INLINE WITH THE GNRL 8H/7H CVRG/THETA-E ADV THAT
WOULD OCCUR WITH THIS PTRN. ALTHOU HVY RNS ARE PSBL...THIS
SEEMS MORE LIKE PERSISTENT MOD RNS OVR THE SAME AREA THAT
COULD TOTAL 2-3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS BY SAT MRNG.

...ROCKIES/HI PLNS...
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE THRU THESE REGIONS WL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA
OF LGT TO PSBLY MOD RNFL. WV IMAGERY AND MDLS SHOW ONLY ONE
DISTINCT SHRTWV...THAT IS XPCD TO MOV THRU THE NRN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE HI PLNS THIS AFTR. THIS SYS SHLD INDUCE STGR
LOLVL INFLOW/UPSLOPE INTO NERN WY TDA WITH THE BETTER LIFT
DROPG SEWD TNGT INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS. MDLS ARE IN STG
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATR...BUT THE GFS IS SHOWG SIGNS OF
FEEDBACK AND LKLY TOO HVY WITH THE QPF OVR WY.

...NAME AREA...
ANOTHER PD OF DIURNAL CNVCTN OVR MOSTLY THE MEXICAN PORTION
OF THE NAME AREA AS THE MID/UPR LVL HI SHIFTS ACRS AZ AND
ALLOWS FOR DEEP ERLYS TO IMPINGE UPON THE HIER TERRAIN.
PLENTY OF DEEP MSTR WL SUPPORT A BROAD REGION OF MOD/HVY RNS

DAY 2...

...MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST...
A COLD FRONT IS FCST IS DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACRS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND STALL OVER THE MID ATLC. THE ETA PREDICTS HIGHER QPF
AMTS NEAR THE FRONT AND THEN THE COAST DUE TO CONVERGENCE IN
ONSHORE FLOW.  THE GFS PREDICTS RAINFALL FURTHER INLAND...AND A
BLEND IS USED DUE TO AGREEMENT ON AMOUNTS BUT DISPLACED AXES
OVER THE MID ATLC.  HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2-2.25
INCHES AS WELL AS STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY SHWRS/STORMS...WITH LIGHT WINDS SFC-850MB
UNDER10 KT SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT IN THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. MANUAL QPF FOLLOWED THE1.5-2 INCHES FCST BY THE 
ETA/GFS IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DUE TO FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF
HIGH PW VALUES/SLOW MOVING BNDRY/CELLS/DIURNAL GRAVITATIONAL
INSTABILITY.

...CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS-LOWER MS VALLEY...
THE ETA/GFS PREDICT A LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACRS OK-
TX WITH ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT.  RETURN
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE ETA INCREASES PW VALUES TO ABT
2 INCHES...SO THE ETA FCSTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN CENTRAL OK.
THE GFS DROPS A CONVECTIVE GRID SCALE FEEDBACK BOMB ON
CENTRAL MO.  THE ETA IS PREFERRED AS IT APPEARS A CORRECTION IS
REQUIRED TO ADJUST THE GFS PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA
WHERE HIGHER LAYER RH/PW VALUES PERSIST.  THE UKMET INDICATES
HEAVIER RAIN IN OK LIKE THE ETA AND AGREES WITH THE ETA PRECIP
TIMING AS WELL.  THE LOCATION OF MAXIMA IN THE REGIONAL SPECTRAL
QPF MAXIMA IN DIFFERENT STATES THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS ONLY
ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE GFS SOLN.

...NAME....
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST WHERE GFS/ETA SHOW HIGHER PW
VALUES OVER BAJA CA AND ADJACENT WEST COAST OF MEXICO...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE NOTED FM12Z SAT-12Z SUN IN EITER MODEL UP THROUGH
SOUTHERN AZ/NM.  MANUAL QPF BLENDED ETA/GFS/CLIMATOLOGICAL QPF
AMOUNTS OVER MEXICO/AZ/NM.

ECKERT/PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 224064 227073 232083 235089 240093 249099 255102 261105 
      268108 274109 299110 304113 307117 309119 312120 316120 
      320118 323112 328110 338116 351122 354124 358122 360121 
      360119 354112 351107 352103 354102 358102 363103 373105 
      378102 382098 388098 390101 391105 385109 379112 375116 
      373121 371131 373137 376137 378132 379129 382130 382134 
      384141 386149 389153 392154 393159 389165 387169 389172 
      395173 403164 406159 410152 410148 407144 402139 395138 
      391137 389134 390128 393125 397124 403128 408125 411122 
      414122 419122 425125 431121 437117 443117 447119 453118 
      457115 459112 460108 461101 456062 454049 452043 449036 
      446030 440020 433005 424993 419989 414988 410989 402989 
      395987 394980 394971 395967 395962 394956 395948 392942 
      391931 388921 385914 383904 380885 382869 382865 383860 
      386855 391842 394837 398832 402825 406816 409811 413803 
      416795 419790 432764 436757 440752 445745 449740 453734 
      457730 462723 467718 478701 482696 486689 492674 495667 
      495658 494647 495644 498639 499630 497627 495626 488626 
      483629 476635 472641 462652 456660 452665 445673 441678 
      428693 406719 400724 395727 382733 374735 366739 358743 
      351749 336767 327778 323784 318792 309815 297816 285815 
      280813 276811 267806 260805 254806 251808 251811 256819 
      262825 265832 269836 273840 279843 289847 296848 313844 
      323834 332829 338833 340845 337857 332864 328873 325883 
      328895 331906 341940 345971 341997 333016 326032 320044 
      319052 323061 317070 308073 300070 293064 285054 285044 
      292034 301027 312015 320001 324986 327970 328951 329935 
      325919 324913 321904 317900 312897 306895 301897 301900 
      298908 298919 298934 296941 293948 291952 287957 283961 
      276965 271967 265969 258971 257971 252978 254987 263992 
      271996 272002 265009 258015 247021 243025 240031 236035 
      231037 227043 226049 
 0.01 413223 412219 408216 402214 399212 396207 392202 389200 
      384198 380200 382204 385206 388209 393213 396215 401219 
      404221 409224 413223 
 0.25 488657 489651 486648 481649 478651 470659 463666 460672 
      454680 451684 443696 433708 426715 419720 409728 404733 
      396737 384741 370745 360749 350757 342767 333778 328788 
      327793 326796 328799 333798 337795 344790 351785 355782 
      359782 363784 369787 374791 375796 373799 369808 364821 
      363828 364838 367846 371853 378851 394823 407791 414772 
      425753 442732 461713 469703 477691 482683 485673 488662 
      488657 
 0.25 445101 444099 442096 441096 438096 437100 438103 441104 
      444103 445101 
 0.25 445048 446043 445038 441032 434022 430016 425011 421009 
      413008 407008 399009 394006 391000 388984 387968 388960 
      388950 385938 368932 363919 359906 357900 353897 348895 
      343888 339883 336884 334891 337908 341921 345934 349952 
      351961 351971 351979 349985 347997 342010 337024 335038 
      333042 332051 333054 337059 344061 347061 358057 365056 
      370058 374061 373062 371065 371070 372076 374080 377082 
      381081 384079 386077 389078 392079 396078 400077 402076 
      405074 409074 413073 413070 415064 421065 424066 427065 
      429061 429056 431052 437049 444050 445048 
 0.25 342099 342096 342092 341090 340089 338085 335082 333082 
      332082 331085 333087 334089 334092 335095 337099 338100 
      341101 342099 
 0.25 315111 317107 317102 317098 316094 304091 292086 288083 
      287080 289078 287073 283069 275062 267052 264047 263041 
      262033 260032 256031 247038 243040 235042 233043 232047 
      231053 232057 235062 238074 244084 253091 257094 262096 
      268099 274100 281100 289101 303104 307106 310109 315111 
 0.25 295015 296011 294008 291008 286007 281010 279013 277016 
      275019 273024 274028 276029 279028 284025 287023 290021 
      293018 295015 
 0.50 484661 481657 476661 466670 453688 438708 432715 426721 
      420723 403737 396740 384745 365751 360754 349763 343769 
      338777 335781 333786 333791 335792 342788 350781 360774 
      369768 378765 385766 389769 390773 388780 385785 384791 
      386795 393789 400778 410762 420750 426742 436732 453717 
      467699 478680 481675 482669 484661 
 0.50 442040 438032 434028 429021 425017 418014 411013 405016 
      402019 401023 405030 409036 415040 424040 429042 435045 
      441043 442040 
 0.50 380825 386816 383815 376817 373825 373828 376828 378826 
      380825 
 0.50 397049 395046 392045 390046 389047 388050 389051 392052 
      395051 397049 
 0.50 384965 384951 383943 380941 375942 371942 365938 360932 
      356924 351913 346904 343896 339897 339902 343915 350947 
      352957 353969 353978 351986 347003 342018 340027 339036 
      338045 340051 342053 347052 352047 360037 366030 372026 
      378021 382015 385009 386997 385984 384973 384965 
 0.50 260051 251046 244045 239047 237055 239064 245074 251082 
      259090 271095 285097 296097 297094 291090 283085 276078 
      270066 269063 266057 260051 
 1.00 471677 467678 464682 460688 454696 449703 444709 441714 
      438717 434725 438723 442720 446714 453706 458701 463694 
      469686 471677 
 1.00 350774 344782 341785 340779 350769 350774 
 1.00 380968 380961 377957 373954 369952 365947 362943 356940 
      354942 354949 355953 357963 356974 355981 352995 350003 
      348013 349018 351020 357018 369011 373007 377999 380992 
      381984 381973 380968 
 2.00 369993 370990 371986 370982 368980 365980 363983 363984 
      362987 361991 361993 361994 360998 361001 361002 364002 
      365001 367998 367997 369994 369993  
 
24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 222077 250098 255104 261108 275115 285121 291127 295129 
      302132 311135 315138 322139 327138 333137 339136 344134 
      359136 364136 365132 371125 380130 389136 393144 395154 
      399164 407168 413170 416173 423176 427177 431176 436177 
      442174 448175 452172 436152 433149 432143 434124 437122 
      443121 452120 455119 456116 455109 455098 453093 450095 
      447097 443091 437089 432089 427090 425094 424099 425105 
      421108 417109 415106 413097 412091 413087 419078 423072 
      426065 430061 434059 438056 443054 449054 454051 447027 
      445011 442005 438000 436996 433990 431987 426985 417983 
      410984 403985 402978 401970 400960 397955 396952 393949 
      391943 385929 378919 369917 363914 358910 354900 352886 
      348874 346866 342858 340850 337841 341831 344824 352816 
      358812 362811 364813 368818 371820 374819 379820 381815 
      384809 385807 388805 393803 396801 400800 403800 404798 
      411789 416779 420769 428746 431735 437727 451712 463699 
      470688 484665 488657 489651 491636 492627 491622 486621 
      484620 484615 485610 485607 483604 482599 480599 476601 
      470599 466601 460600 458599 456600 451605 448609 447620 
      446631 441640 427662 414667 408680 402691 392701 383709 
      374713 369715 363716 341724 338728 336732 332739 324754 
      312776 304784 295791 285792 276792 269788 265785 261783 
      254781 250781 246781 241790 242802 243810 246820 252825 
      254829 255834 256843 258848 262851 268859 275867 283876 
      284881 282885 271902 271913 271917 271921 273923 282926 
      286929 289932 291945 293956 292964 289973 285995 282007 
      282013 280017 279022 277026 275028 267032 255033 251032 
      250028 249024 246021 242020 237019 230018 
 0.25 226063 236071 239078 246083 256090 266099 273105 282108 
      291111 295113 298116 301120 303122 309121 312119 320115 
      326109 332105 340103 343100 344096 348092 352092 357092 
      361090 365083 367079 369078 374081 377083 380081 387075 
      392075 395071 400064 403059 406053 404038 397040 386039 
      379038 375039 369038 364038 359037 356026 359019 363012 
      367007 372010 377016 379019 384018 388016 390010 391999