Preparing for PersuasionWe don’t know exactly what a flu pandemic will look like or when it will come, but we do know enough to be able to put systems in place so that we’re ready. Because we will not be able to rely on the government to take care of everyone when the pandemic comes, we need to make sure that citizens, schools, businesses and other organizations are prepared beforehand and take appropriate actions to mitigate its effects throughout its duration. How do we persuade people to do the right thing? Generally, governments and organizations have used three ways to bring about social change or action on a broad scale. First, through education — telling people the facts and hoping they will do the rational thing to protect their families and others. Providing lists of supplies, statistics about likely morbidity and mortality, and medical symptoms are all part of the educational approach. Unfortunately, as we know from issues like smoking and exercise, knowledge is often not sufficient to bring about behavior change. Second, coercion by passing laws or enacting policies at the governmental or organizational levels can be very effective. This method might be necessary to enforce quarantines, but we can’t very well legislate the purchase of an adequate supply of emergency food by each household. The third approach is social marketing, persuading people to take action by appealing to their values and emotions by “selling” the desired behaviors using the same effective techniques as companies like Apple or Nike. Social marketing brings about change by promoting the benefits that are most appealing to members of the target audience, whether it’s that pandemic preparedness is just another way to be a good parent or that other people like themselves have already bought their supplies and think they should too. It also focuses on identifying the reasons why people are not taking action and figuring out ways to remove those barriers — packaging supplies in an easy-to-buy kit, relating pandemic preparedness to planning for more familiar natural disasters (e.g., earthquakes, hurricanes, etc.), or using the flu epidemic of 1918 as a way of making the potential devastation less abstract. When most people hear the word “marketing,” they think of things like commercials and billboards. Yes, communication is usually a big part of marketing, but it is just a piece of the puzzle. The marketing approach also offers us a strategic way to think through all the aspects of convincing someone to take action. Some of the questions we would need to answer include:
Now is the time, before the pandemic comes, to set good habits, get supplies in place, and establish social norms around the actions that will help people survive. We may not want to even necessarily talk about these things in the context of a flu pandemic, if we find that this concept is too foreign for people to connect with, but relate it to general emergency preparedness or good health habits. I see a parallel with the hype and hysteria around global warming, which makes many people tune out when its proponents could more effectively convince people to take energy saving measures for more concrete reasons like reducing our dependence on foreign oil or preventing environmental damage. I will admit that I am not an expert on pandemic flu, so I will now turn it over to the rest of you for your comments. How do you think we can apply the strategic issues I’ve posed here to marketing pandemic flu preparedness?
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Thank you Ms Weinreich for an excellent post. I can only hope that, starting with the Federal Govt, our various levels of govt. would do as you suggest. I’ll take as a glimmer of hope that they recognize this by virtue of having invited you to participate.
Being you lead a business, I have the same question for you that I posed to Mr. Omidyar (not yet answered). I do not expect govt. to do it all. I think businesses can and should play a major role and that individuals should take some responsibility too.
My question then is as the leader of a business, have you procured Tamiflu and other supplies for the protection of your employees and families? If yes, all of them or only some? This is an especially pertinent question given the Federal & State governments have only bought enough for a small fraction of the population. I believe we have only bought enough to meet about half of the 25% goal that the Feds set and the rest is not yet on order for lack of funds. Roche has cut back production for lack of demand which means we’ve got a missed opportunity here that cannot be made up once a pandemic starts. Corporate America can fill part of the void. If businesses publicly began stepping up to the plate to protect their employees, many other businesses would follow suit. I don’t understand why government seems incapable of providing leadership on this issue but maybe businesses can show them the way.
Thank you for listening.
Posted May 25th, 2007 at 8:04 amWelcome to the dialogue Nedra. Don’t worry about not having expertise in avian flu, you have expertise in the direction the dialogue is heading. I don’t know anything about marketing, but I’ll offer an idea about how to market preparedness.
The marketing problem, as I see it, is that selling pandemic preparedness is a bit like selling funeral arrangements and grave sites to a thirty- something person. Or, life insurance to a twenty year old, single person. Mortality just isn’t on their radar. But, there is a way to package it that doesn’t focus on death, but life instead.
Is YOYO Such A Bad Thing?
YOYO (Your On Your Own) is generally used in a negative sense in the flu forum world. But, remember the day you left home and got your first place of your own. I do. It was a bit scary, and very exciting. But, mostly it was empowering! My destiny was finally in my own hands and I reveled in a sea of freedom, and more importantly, self-reliance. I believe my father even smiled and said, ‘You’re on your own now.’
There are other experiences we’ve all shared that are also empowering. Some of mine were the first time my dad let me go hunting all by myself, and buying my first car. You can fill in the blanks yourself if you think of empowerment and self-reliance as attributes of the experience.
Preparing for a pandemic took me by surprise in this regard. When I first started I had no idea how I would feel down the road a bit. But, I didn’t think feelings of empowerment and self-reliance would be among them. Now, that I’m nearing the end of my prepping I have this sense of being prepared for being on my own, and in a sense, a feeling of anticipation (???) where before there was only dread. Perhaps marketing the way it will make you feel is a positive way to motivate people to prepare. And as you said, it’s not necessary to address pandemic flu directly. Perhaps, something like”
‘Don’t like the price of tomatoes? Grow your own!’
It’s not the best slogan. But, I believe it conveys a positive and constructive idea that can work its way back into our national consciousness.
Posted May 25th, 2007 at 8:52 amGreetings Nedra and thank you for your thoughts which I feel highlight the need to fine tune a message that will appeal to an audience as diverse as the American public.
It is obvious many here feel the messages to date ring hollow by the lack of information available in mass media outlets concerning pandemic preparedness.
The time has come to put some meat and potatoes into the message of preparing and an ad campaign would certainly be an obvious next step. “Got milk” comes to mind with celebrities sitting on their pile of “Got Preps?” would send a positive message echoing the need for prepping.
People also need to recognize the gap in assistance that will arise during a pandemic and the seriousness of this issue. I feel the government has to come clean with the American public by addressing this potential gap in assistance given a pandemic outbreak. I feel many believe FEMA will save the day in any emergency. Katrina was a hard lesson in emergency response challenges and again I feel many believe lessons were learned and that we will do it right the next time. Only the next time is a pandemic that will surely overwhelm any federal assistance we could muster. I strongly feel that the Director of FEMA needs to go to the public with a message of what the can and can’t do to highlight this need for personal back up during a pandemic. This would also be a good time to illustrate how the many local programs will shine but only if more people get involved.
A tax deduction for the cost of preps would go a long way in giving people some financial relief towards this burden and a sense of well being that the government is taking this seriously as well. Obviously any federal assistance such as tax deductions or rebates is open to abuses but perhaps tying in these incentives with attendance to a preparedness seminar or completion of an on-line training program could be very effective.
I am so encouraged by all the excellent thoughts exchanged by this blog and look forward to many more – thank you for your time.
Posted May 25th, 2007 at 8:56 am“What are the barriers to taking action, and how can we remove those barriers?”
Education is key to successful preparation, and consistent communication and messaging to encourage the proper response. It would be helpful if world organizations such as WHO and OIE had the same views about the potential threat and its current status. When one organization indicates that things are improving, and then another reflects continued problems with the disease, the poor folks in the trenches just throw up their hands.
Just a thought, but perhaps HHS could comment on reports and positions as they are provided by others to at least put some of these comments in proper perspective for general consumption.
Posted May 25th, 2007 at 9:03 amThank you for blogging and asking this question.
Bear in mind that I am an idealist…
After almost 5 years of listening to me tell him about this I finally had a breathrough, of sorts, with my husband. By telling him that because he will not allow me to fully prepare our lack of preparedness will be on his head if and when the time comes. I hate sanctions but if people refuse to prepare they can be looked at as a drain on society. Our government provides financial assistance for those in need and the disabled. No one should be without the resources to have tuna, rice and water. People need to know that they are on their own. They need to know that there is a hazard approaching and that they have to prepare, no ifs ands or buts about it. Of course, the fear is that those without integrity will prey upon the weaker members of society in order to do their prepping. It will take the vigilence of all who care to make sure that this does not happen.
Posted May 25th, 2007 at 9:12 amThanks so much for such a well thought out post.
It’s absolutely true that My Eyes Glaze Over facts can be too much, although I love what some facts can do for us (and why we’d want to be St. Louis and not Philadelphia) with some audiences.
Is it better to use the best of every good approach (some facts are needed, if only as backup) or really target audiences completely differently? understanding this can help with the ‘how to’, since social networking has many of us being the information spreaders.
What basic tips do we need to know to help our own informal presentations?
Posted May 25th, 2007 at 9:18 amThank you for your participation, MS. Weinreich.
If you “see a parallel with the hype and hysteria around global warming” and a pandemic, then I fear we have divergent opinions on this topic.
In spite of this, there is one tried and true solution to help prevent panic and that is telling the truth. IMO there is no need to dress it up or put pandemic informations in with an all hazards approach. A pandemic is a very unique event.
Very few people will panic. Knowledge and practical advice on what folks can do to help prepare them to protect their families and loved ones will help refocus fear into action.
If you read all of the posters’ comments on the blogs so far, you will notice that many have provided sound thinking on why 2 weeks of food and water will not be enough to get people through the waves of a pandemic.
Your questions about what we can do are excellent and very germane to this pandemic conversation. We have been working on answers to these questions on the flu boards for several years. I am sure you will get some creative responses.
You raise some excellent points and have provided a good springboard for discussion. Thanks!
Posted May 25th, 2007 at 9:35 amOur experience so far shows how pandemic preparedness is, using the terms you use in your post, a hard sell.
Trying to imagine a pandemic is like tiptoeing down a dark alley, and most people just don’t want to go there.
And once you look in, for quite a long time one may think the subject matter is just too complex to tackle.
Which it is, but only if you try to make the whole map fit inside your head.
After that, things get easier: each individual can contribute from their own capabilities. Stock up a little, learn a little, have some conversations with others.
You mentioned tobacco and exercise. Some people have what looks like a heart attack and that very evening they quit smoking and start walking the dog. But more frequently it takes many small conversations before we get there.
With the tobacco and exercise example, you’d start with doctors.
Who do you start with if you want to fire up panflu preparedness?
Posted May 25th, 2007 at 9:47 amOnce a month, the States could have a tax-free Pandemic Supplies Day. Businesses could have list of appropriate supplies for their customers and offer sales of those supplies. Businesses that sell those supplies could offer discounts to their employees, to encourage them to buy supplies.
Grocery stores could run Pandemic Pantry sales in their weekly fliers.
They could have displays of prep suppies and sticker appropriate foods for long term storage and have lists for their customers. They could also have information playing on their PA systems.
Propane suppliers and other suppliers of alternative heat sources could run sales.
Utilities could mail information on the safe use of alternative heat, instructions on how to turn off the gas line, etc.
Talk radio and tv talk shows, fund drives for food banks.
The VFW’s, Rotary Clubs etc. could mobilize local efforts.
These local groups and businesses could help in donating masks etc. for their local health care workers, police and first responders, to keep their local communities functioning as long as possible.
Last winter, people froze to death during the ice storms. And those storms only lasted a couple weeks. Those storms will still happen during a pandemic and repairs will be much slower. If the grid goes down during the winter, millions of people will be affected. Having no heat for an entire winter will cause many deaths. Alternative heat is a serious issue and must be addressed.
People won’t be able to gather together in ‘heating stations’ for fear of infection.
Communities could stockpile fire wood from any trees that come down in storms.
Posted May 25th, 2007 at 9:52 amIt’s time to think ahead and outside the box.
Mrs Weinreich,
Welcome, I look forward to your experience. Governments bring about some social change, mostly at the behest of those governed. It is bad when TPTB either act without consent or worse - ignore the will of the people. Perhaps it is best said that governments do those things a lone person can not do, while not inhibiting those things a person can do.
This is also my forth time at trying to post. If you have the third one, disregard this one.
I am no expert either. I agree with Science Teacher. I would like to add “informed consent” with out the facts there can not be informed consent on actions taken. That is what I love about the hard working people on FluWiki - lots of daily news reports on H5N1.
I agree with you - advertisers have an incredible grip on people and that multiple messages need to be given. Note: any individual may need to act in multiple ways. Greg Dworkin wears four hats as Dr., parent, Pandemic advocate and FluWiki founder. Even a cameo mention in an ad would help. The ad with President Lincoln and the badger just needs one line “Bird flu - don’t let that night mare in here” Even to have the cave man for Geico commercial say “Pandemic, ohh you all are so unprepared” and then roll his eyes and fall back in discuss.
Advertisements like that get the message across in a way that lets people observe with out being confronted with making a decision.
Barriers to taking action? Ahh, sadly many. My niece feels she can do more to stop global warming than the pandemic. She can ride her bike, use less light and buy eco friendly things to help with global warming. If only people knew they where empowered to help themselves. Prepping involves buying food in bulk which actually saves people money. I kid you not.
Lack of knowledge. I have seen more TV shows on an asteroid that may hit the Earth in 2025 than bird flu. There are shows on super massive black holes and their part in galaxy formations on TV - Science channel. So far no one thinks it is time for the Pandemic Channel.
The weather Channel - flu season, HG TV - things to grow if food gets scarce, Health channel - pandemic, school closings, Science channel - why H5N1 and what do the numbers mean, Food channel - making dinner without a refrigerator or microwave or making brea and pizza at home from flour and water. History channel - 1918 pandemic, CD - civil defense, etc. The list goes on.
Talk radio, NPR, etc.
YouTube - though this is also dangerous as bad information can be given out.
PSA - The first step in starting a fire is getting a bucket of water. Never start something you can not start. Why fire? When the power goes out people still need to eat.
Mrs Weinreich, two important groups are the deaf and blind. The deaf walk silently amongst us. Many think things can just be printed. That is not always the case. We learn to read from sounding out words. This is hard for the deaf. Example: dove dove - which word is a bird called a “dove”, and which is the action of the dove that “dove” into the tree? Read v.s read - “Did he read the passage she read?” Wound v.s wound. He wound the wound with gauze? The list goes on.
Who is creditable - the ones created. Every one is a nobody till they are successful.
Kobie
Posted May 25th, 2007 at 2:21 pmThank you VERY much for your contribution–I was hoping to hear how marketing would work in conveying information in the most effective way possible.
I do agree that sometimes even dire threats of, say, heart disease, do not motivate someone to change their behaviors. However, the difference between tobacco/overeating/etc. and panflu is that panflu is sudden and severe, killing sometimes in a matter of hours. Some people can smoke for 50 years and die because they were hit by a bus. Plus we hear often about how we have to have good cholesterol, etc. It is more background noise sometimes.
However, pandemics are QUICK and ruthless. Even the smoker has some chance between diagnosis and death to get treatments. If people could feel the effects of lung disease within hours or a day or two of the first cigarette, they would be less inclined to smoke.
It would seem that it MIGHT be a useful marketing strategy to convey this to people, as well as how NO ONE has any immunity for it, and how “healthy” you are does not count for anything in the face of a novel virus. This seems to be very much a routine path to dismissal (”I never get sick…I have had the flu before….I take lots of vitamins…”)
Another point to convey, if we are wanting to target populations, is to show how the most severe pandemic, 1918, actually killed the young, health, pregnant, and children. It might also behoove us to show the data of how many children vs adults are dying from H5N1.
Also it is IMPERATIVE to convey that those who live now with H5N1 are getting VERY specialized care–ventilators and massive quantities of antivirals and the like. These things will NOT be available during a pandemic. Period. Not at all.
If people understand that their lives are in their own hands, they will be more motivated to step up to the plate, correct? Is it wise to tell them the TRUTH of “If the pandemic is mild, you MIGHT have medical access. However if the pandemic is moderate to severe, ALL you will have to take care of it is what you have IN YOUR HOUSE. The government will not be able to be everywhere and the medical community will be THOROUGHLY overwhelmed.” to get them to prepare?
I would like to get your thoughts, but I was wondering about the carrot and stick approach. The Stick is death of citizens…really horrible death. The Stick is panflu and sorrow and starvation, the predilection that the virus has for children, etc.
I will be honest, I am afraid that the government will try to “soften the stick” to be less “mean/harsh”, and instead of saying what the CONSEQUENCES of not preparing will be (frankly, death and starvation, widows and orphans, misery and illness), they will just say “You will be unprepared.” That is not a consequence, that is just a statement of being and I believe will not convey the message.
The Carrot can be multifaceted from “You are doing a GOOD job protecting your family” to “You have GREATLY increased your chances of survival”.
Is it useful to say “If you do not prepare your chances of living are MUCH reduced. But if you do prepare, you are increasing your chance of survival and doing great things for your family”?
Is molding your message to a “target audience” as necessary when all humans are motivated by the same thing–not dying? Is it possible that there does not need to be as much custom tailoring as in, say, selling a car? Some people want their cars to add to their status, some want good gas mileage, some want cargo room.
But nearly EVERYONE wants to live and almost NO ONE wants to be sick or to see their friends or family be sick. Could a message that is appropriately stark work?
Now, you are the marketing expert, I wonder if you would mind remarking on how useful a more strident “No, there is not time to dawdle, this is a SERIOUS threat and this is what you need to do about it asap” message would be vs a more “intellectual” approach of “H5N1 is a serious disease…pandemics happen…it is prudent to be prepared”. I know that some intellectuals would prefer an intellectual approach, but it seems that many of the US base their decisions emotionally.
While many government officials seem to be worried about “panic”, I feel that that fear is GROSSLY misplaced. In fact, I am of the mind that it is used as an excuse more than a reason. A justification not to do something that seems “scary”. I could be wrong though.
So while we probably do not want to go with “WE ARE ALL GONNA DIE!”, it seems that this situation requires more than the impassive, intoned, emotionless “Pandemics occur. Preparedness is wise. Prepare today”.
I would like to add a problem that I have seen regarding the marketing of exercise. I use this as an example of what I believe are marketing mistakes–too many steps of racheting up information….
I remember when the recommendation for exercise was 20 min, 3x/week. Then 30min, 3x per week. Then 30 min 5x/wk, then 60 min, 5xweek. Honestly at that point I found myself frustrated with the whole concept….lured in, then told “Nope, everything you just did was not enough”. The first two upticks in exercise levels were, IMO, irritating but reasonable. However, at some point it was frustrating to be told repeatedly “do more… that was not enough, do more…now THAT was not enough, do more…”.
I wonder if we risk that problem with trying to be too incremental to “slowly get people used to the idea”. Perhaps the message should just be bold “As much as you possibly can. Pandemics come in waves of 6-8 weeks and will last 18-24 mos, so you should strive to have AT LEAST 6-8 weeks in your house. There is time to prepare, but NOT time to dawdle. Then build uon that as much as you can. ANYTHING is better than nothing, but understand that the more you do, the better your family will be.”. What sort of message do you think that would be?
I just wanted to add an aside…you had mentioned two weeks preparation. I know that that was just an example! However, I thought it was important to address for new people who would read the blog.
I would respectfully like to offer that two weeks is not enough. As I mentioned earlier, pandemics seem to occur in waves that last about 6-8 weeks, and there are a few of those waves per pandemic. The shortest length of a pandemic estimate that I have seen has been about 12 months, the longest about 18-24 months (again with many waves). Even if it is safe to come out between waves (I certainly do not want to come out during one), there will probably be massive disruptions of deliveries, etc. I think we are considering that perhaps a MIN of 3 months would be better.
Again, I know that was just your example, not your recommendation, but wanted to bring that point up.
I do like the ideas of KTS1—tax free stock up days, pandemic pantry displays and offers all work to get the information out there, on the spot, where “impulse buying” is regularly used anyway. GREAT ideas IMO.
Thank you for your time. I look forward to your response!
A.
Posted May 25th, 2007 at 2:33 pmThis is an excellent blog and everything I’ve read so far has been informative, positive, and provocative. When I first heard about the impending pandemic at a town hall meeting, I left feeling somewhat depressed and overwhelmed. I agree with Atropine that “Something is better than nothing, and more is better.” As a single mom of four growing boys living on a teacher’s salary, I felt I could not go out and stockpile the necessary supplies, but I came to the conclusion that I must do what I could. Over the course of about 9 months, I have acquired a rotating supply of canned food and water, dry milk, OTC drugs, N-95 masks (although I’m not sure how many might be adequate), cat food, first aid supplies, as well as refilling my families’ prescriptions at the beginning rather than the at the end of the supply, so we always have a 90-day supply on hand. I talked this over with our doctors and had no problem. I have also purchased a crank flashlight, and I’d like to get a crank radio soon. I guess I’m talking about how to eat an elephant…one bite at a time. I try to take advantage of sales to stock up, think consciously of what I would do if utilities were out, bank shut, etc., and how the time of year might impact a disaster. I believe people will face fear better if they believe they can cope with it.
Posted May 25th, 2007 at 11:25 pmAs a teacher of young children, we always prepare them (and ourselves)for the possibility of an emergency (fire and tornado drills being most common)and what to do.The likelihood of these actually happening is less than the eventuality of a pandemic. Preparation should be brought up in the same way. Every year we teach and post proper handwashing, tissue use, etc. Maybe we could do more…PTO presentations. I am pleased to know that my school district, in connection with our city and county leaders, is in the process of developing a coordinated plan.
Another effective marketing tool is grass roots communication. Talk about what you personally are doing to prepare with your family and friends. Reasonable people are greatly influenced by known reasonable people. I will be checking in frequently to stay abreast of the forum. I also plan to make others aware of this site/blog.
Marianne, Teacher (Post#12)
Hi. Yes shock and disbelief is often the first reaction. My niece felt she could do more for global warming and the national debt than pandemic. She has since learned otherwise.
If you have boys you might want to check out cub scouts and boy scouts. Character, knots, first aide and cooking are all important skills.
I hope the Ad agency can convey a positive attitude. Those who believe they will get better do, those who believe they will not do not recover quite as well. A positive attitude helps. Hope you can see yourself in 2011 (made up date) looking back on the pandemic as just one long bad year.
Keep prepping, keep practicing and I hope you find others to talk with. The grass roots solution will probably work faster than government one.
What else would you like to see on the blog?
Regards,
Posted May 26th, 2007 at 4:22 pmKobie
I am so impressed by the level of discourse here. Clearly you have all thought about this issue in depth. I will try to respond to your comments as best I can.
RLU, I agree with you that businesses can play a big role in helping their employees prepare for a pandemic. Because my business is essentially a network of independent consultants who work in our own offices, I do not have the same issues as a business with employees onsite. But as I am learning more about preparing for pandemic flu, I am making sure that I and the people I know are ready.
C Mundy, I like the angle that you are taking, in terms of promoting self-empowerment. There are definitely many people who would respond to that message.
Jay, I agree that it could be quite powerful to have the head of FEMA putting out the message that their ability to assist in the event of a major pandemic is limited. It might take a stark message like that, combined with memories of Katrina, that would help people realize that they cannot rely on the government’s assistance. And tax deductions for the cost of supplies would be a great incentive if we could figure out how to avoid related fraud.
Mamabird, consistency of the message is critical across agencies and media. I hope that HHS will coordinate with other organizations at the global, state and local levels to ensure that there are not conflicting, and potentially confusing, messages getting out there.
Standingfirm, you raise a very important point that those who are currently on government assistance may not be able to afford the investment necessary to purchase supplies in advance of a pandemic. We will need to think through how to encourage stockpiling for those who barely have enough to eat today.
Greg, I think whether we are speaking to many people or one at a time, we need to know our audience and what will be most effective in motivating action. Facts are necessary, but not sufficient. By understanding what most motivates the people you are speaking to, you can be more effective (and this will be different for various audiences). For people with families, it may be an appeal to their sense of responsibility. For young adults on their own, it may be a message about self-empowerment or social norms.
I apologize for not being able to respond to all the comments right now, but as soon as I have a chance I will come back and try to get to everyone’s very important points. Thanks and keep posting comments!
Posted May 27th, 2007 at 4:50 amSince Dr. Georges Benjamin rightly pointed out the recent cases of H5N1, let me add a bit of what we do on the flu blogs every day… track the news. Michael Coston (aka Fla_Medic) wrote up the volunteer efforts here (all set up by social networking without any face-to-face discussion or central planning other than the flu blogs).
China: Soldier hospitalized with bird flu.
Dr. Benjamin is absolutely right… H5N1 is still around to remind us of the potentials and pitfalls of how ill influenza can make people, even if we can’t say for certain that H5N1 is the next pandemic virus. Why not? There are others…
11 ill as bird flu tests continue
This is a low path H7N2 in Wales and not a high path H5N1, and folks don’t get as ill, but it still is worrisome whenever a bird flu crosses over to humans.
Any of these events could have been the beginning of a major outbreak. That they are not (as of now) is no reason to let down our guard.
So, as we use our contacts to educate folks in the manner most suitable to the audience (and thank you for that important point, Nedra!!), there will always be recent and current examples of why it’s important to prepare.
Posted May 27th, 2007 at 8:20 am[…] a social marketer. And the founder of eBay. And a social activist. They’re all blogging with me over at the […]
Posted May 27th, 2007 at 9:38 amFlu preparation is strictly non-partisan. But using networks of all persuasions and all kinds to get word out is important. There are active readers all over the political blogosphere. They, too, should be involved and not be excluded. They, too, are citizens who need to prep.
All politics is local, and this needs to be supported at every level to make headway. And, politicians should understand that public health needs political support to succeed, and that the political support from an educated public is there and available.
However, this blog is not the place for political statements. There are other places on the internet for that, if people are so inclined.
Posted May 27th, 2007 at 10:01 amMs.Weinreich, thank you so much for taking time out of your weekend to respond to comments.
“And tax deductions for the cost of supplies would be a great incentive if we could figure out how to avoid related fraud.”
Sales-tax holidays for certain classes of items is done in some states for hurricane supplies; might that be easier and help more people get out and stock up? The classes that don’t pay high taxes don’t get much from deduction offers, but no sales tax lowers the price, perhaps, enough to motivate people, along with telling them why they need to do it; no help to count on - not even like that after Katrina. What states miss in sales tax those once-a-month days, they’d make up in public with more supplies on hand for emergencies, short or long.
“consistency of the message” is not so critical that to get consensus it gets stalled until the lowest common denominator is accepted by all. (Telling the American public they need “two weeks” of food made most people do nothing; they can cope for two weeks! and then- the emergency must be over; or the govt. would have warned them, if they needed longer, right?)
Saying last year that US State Dept Americans abroad need “12 weeks” minimum of food, water, and supplies, (start gardens and compost piles, prepare for total infrstructure collapse) during pandemic is quite as valid advice stateside; we have no magic unbreakable supply chains nor immunity to panflu here.
Purchasing by each household can’t be legislated, but couldn’t federal or state funding have been frozen for states or municipalities that failed to inform their citizens about the pandemicflu.gov site that went up Oct.2005, and that failed to form Pandemic Preparedness Coordinating Committees, as defined in the First State/Local Task on their checklist? pandemicflu.gov/plan… Muncipalities’ failure to have these PPCC’s and openly prepare their populaces will have adverse secondary and tertiary impacts; “cascade failures” I believe is the term?
Don’t want to freeze funding? Well, at least HHS could have gone over people’s heads and told the public themselves. It was apparent after the state flu summits that the word did not go out. (Election campaigns refuse to mention the issue, too.)
Ms.Weinreich, how can your field help persuade officials to tell the public? Can they be unconvinced that “telling the public would have bad outcomes” (Local Health Dept. 2005 and counting. I kid you not.) “Preparing for persuasion” should have been done about 20 months ago; even now, HHS is asking non-govt. leaders to come up with solutions, while all our past citizen efforts have failed to get traction because officials don’t want to bear bad news (of uncertain arrival date, too) so some of the public likes to believe officials who say, if asked, Oh don’t you worry; we have a Plan. If that ever happened, you’d be told what to do (by someone higher up than than official speaking to public! Clean hands club! “Not my job” to tell public what pandemic means.).
What social marketing can be used to help those in the public trust on the public payroll be comfortable telling the public
Posted May 27th, 2007 at 10:06 amWe’re on alert for pandemic, and if we knew for sure one had started, the preparation time would have just ended, so, “better safe than sorry”?
It still seems to need some official pandemic=reality stamp, from very high up, to get officials to say, Pandemic Influenza Year Preparation by the public is Critical, because since 2003 there are suddenly more viral threats, including H5N1, which is not going away, so, we better get going on
preparedness and self-reliance.
(America used to value those qualities more.)
Ms Weinreich,
I agree that facts are not sufficient, also that different audiences are motivated for different reasons. Therefore, we need a variety of templates for putting this message out.
One of many challenges in communicating the pandemic threat lies in the fact that the threat is indeed very frightening, but we have in this generation raised ‘positive thinking’ into a virtue to such an extent that many people have developed an automatic avoidance of ‘negative’ news. The notion of defensive pessimism is still too novel to be widespread.
The reality is, in order for people to take action, they need to get out of their comfort zones, to be at least a little frightened. (I have yet to meet a ‘prepper’ who did not start doing it because they were frightened of certain aspects of the pandemic threat.)
The second thing they need is to know why. Specifically, they need to be able to develop a rational train of thought, that logically leads from the information they are receiving, step-by-step, to their own personal logical conclusion.
For each individual, the precise combination, ie how much do they need to be frightened, and how much do they need to be rationally convinced, will vary from person to person. Messages designed for big audiences will need to cover a rather wide range, often making them less effective than targeted communications.
Another problem is communicators are often unaware that they are only operating in their own comfort zone which does not necessarily match that of the audience. Widening our own range, developing a repertoire of targeted messages becomes a crucial exercise for anyone wanting to influence others.
In other words,
Here’s one version that is rational and authoritative, utilizing the recommendations from the CDC for community social distancing measures, and originally posted here:
1. Pandemics will happen
2. The current highly lethal H5N1 is the most worrying candidate, because it has achieved all but the final step of efficient human to human transmission with no reduction in fatality.
3. There will be serious problems with availability and distribution of antivirals and vaccines, in the foreseeable future.
4.Health services will be overwhelmed
5. There will be supply issues
6. There will be absenteeism issues
7. #5 and #6 in distant countries can affect local services even before virus arrives
8. To reduce the number of infections, to slow the spread, and to protect children, schools will be closed for up to 12 weeks and parents will be asked to keep kids home.
9. We will all be asked to drastically reduce non-essential activities involving contact with other people.
10. Those who are showing flu symptoms as well as their families will be asked to stay home until they are no longer infectious to others, which is likely to be between 1-2 weeks, longer for bigger households with ongoing infections.
11. Because no one can tell who is most likely to be infected, and because pandemics typically happen so quickly there will be no time to prepare, it would be critically important for every household to have at least 2 weeks of food, water, and other essentials to cover basic needs in case home quarantine is necessary.
12. While we do not expect a complete shut-down of services, intermittent shortages of essential items lasting many months are likely, as the virus spreads in repeated waves round the world.
13. We would recommend that you start now and aim at stockpiling 12 weeks of food, water, and other essentials for you and your family, as a cushion against shortages, so that you can avoid making unnecessary shopping journeys when the outbreak is severest in your community.
Other examples that are more explicitly frightening, targeting 2 very different types of audience, can be found here and here .
Posted May 27th, 2007 at 9:30 pmMid level bureaucrats MUST be persuaded that they have more to lose by not acting than by making no decision and taking no action.
The solution is a hard hand by senior managers against those who fail to think and who block action.
I’ll cite one example. Nearly 1 year ago, I wished to help by encouraging DMORT to stock millions of bodybags because it is obvious that a 1918 or triple 1918 mortality rate will overwhelm the funerary industry. I was willing to fund and support state non profit agencies to make those bodybags, sold to the Government at ridiculously low prices.
The mortician-leadership of DMORT individually supported this because they had just been shipped hundreds of thousands of useless bodybags into the Katrina theater, useless because they were the thin imports incapable of bearing deadweight in the field, yet purchased by a mid level FEMA bureaucrat who had responsibility to purchase but no guidance as to what to purchase. That buyer received no guidance from FEMA management as to what to purchase, and thus bought the cheapest (and useless).
I spoke to the DMORTs FEMA-employee intermediary. That person had no interest then, despite multiple attempts, to cause the expenditure of a dime beyond that which he was directed to purchase. He would not support early establishment of bodybag criteria. He would not support stockpiling of any bodybags.
The outcome will be a catastrophe within the pandemic. There will be minimal bodybags in excess of those used in normal circumstances, and the warehoused million dollars worth will either have melted and be useless or will be in fact useless as they will be too thin to carry a body more than a few feet at most.
Failure to persuade, which really means failure to think apriori, I have concluded in endemic to the government bureaucracy.
Were there one effort only for which there is political will, it had better be a serious look at how to cause action to occur apriori within the federal bureaucracy.
I’ve concluded that Osterholm’s position, protective sequestration for family, is the only high probability way to reduce risk of death during the pandemic of even 20% of what’s now being evidenced by H5N1, and that’s because the bureaucracy has leadership which is in reality eviscerated by serious and competing interests, be they war or global warming or AIDS, or any of a myriad of other pressing needs.
If persuasion is not ramped up that pandemic flu portends intensive societal disintegration (which is itself an impossible point to sustain via provable science), the items necessary for the pandemic will not be available, be their bodybags or hardened, backed up systems to maintain power, water, transportation and sanitation.
The current Administration is more like Wilson’s than Roosevelt’s. The call by Senate leadership in the recent past for a Manhattan Project designation regarding pandemic flu has been tabled. Is there even one reason to believe that this is anything more than an intellectual exercise and discharge? If so, cite chapter and verse. Otherwise, it’s individual protective sequestration planning, so that some remnants of civilian society will survive intact and be ready promptly after the pandemic to lend healthy shoulders and hearts to the massive jobs of reassembly and restart of the socio-economic system now extant.
Persuade the mid-level bureaucrats.
Posted May 28th, 2007 at 2:02 amGaudiaRay,
Thank you for your real life experiance. I belive my area is not looking at body bags but mass grave - autopsy optional. Hard to know for sure since no one is talking.
Our last non-cemetary mass grave was 1850 and dug way outside of town. Now it is surrounded by apartments with granite monument.
Mrs. Weinreich please help us reach teh muliple generations. Those born in 1981 are 26 this year. Many posters I know from other blogs are 40+ who grew up during the cold war - not after teh fall of the berlin wall. “Duck and cover” does not mean the same to Gen-X, nor to MM babies of the year 2000.
If you have any ideas on how to present the same message to multiple econmic groups across multiple generations.
Kobie
“When all is said and done - more is said than done”
Memorial day - remeber those who gave us freedom at 3pm (EDT)
Posted May 28th, 2007 at 1:15 pmUniversity research points out how Ad agencies get us to buy their products. “We need to be like Mike Jordon” or “this will save us money.”, “Be the first on the block”. They even use fear:”Can’t be without protection….”
Why don’t Ads push preparedness? Profit - there is no profit. Useless products do not sell themselves like useful ones do - in my opinion.
Dr. Benjamin Barber, noted political scientist and professor of civil society at the University of Maryland, will be on NPR Thursday to discuss how Advertising affects people. How Ad driven consumer spending with easy credit leads to problems. This in cludes fads.
My wish to have Ads positively affect or educate people about being prepared. To do a good deed and educate people about products that help them. Yes, to focus on more than just the pandemic.
We do not know the time nor the place of the pandemic. We only see H5N1 spread. We have little or no defense against it. Each month the numbers climb and more countries are affected.
Just my opinion,
Posted May 29th, 2007 at 5:34 pmKobie
The blogger’s list of questions posted by her are based on a belief that preparation can be successfully undertaken on a scale significantly large enough to have a positive impact.
I wish to at least be devil’s advocate and question that assumption.
Assume instead that the efforts will be moderate in both scope and in successful a priori impact.
At the time of the pandemic, Level 6, with only 1 to 2 weeks for the entire population to prepare for a 6 to 16 week pandemic flu cycle of 1918 or greater consequence, I suggest that there be a reduction of all the planning concepts to:
a. “What do you do now?” addressed to each of the organizations identified as vital to maintain societal infrastructure, for their further dissemination,
b. “What do you do now?” addressed to the public at large, for the news broadcasters and talking heads of both religious and secular positions, to guide the public, in a direct and continuing attempt to diminish fear and panic.
c. “What are the changes to watch for?”, again to the public at large, so they again can have their fears reduced by being assigned “jobs”.
and, no more than a small handful of additional messages that are to be released, depending upon the severity of the pandemic within a geographic area.
Unfortunately, there has been “moderation” at all levels, and that moderation has a consequence which will during the pandemic be measured in a tax on our societal fabric.
These instructions, prepared in advance, I believe will serve well each country adopting them and a hierarchy upon which to make those announcements. Further, I believe that even these simplistic informational documents will be tested under fire due to competing vested interests.
What needs to be addressed imo are the competing vested interests for scarce resources. The wealthy may be able to shelter in place (protective sequestration), but announcing that as a wise option can be anticipated to encounter strong opposition by those entities representing the poor and disenfranchised. If the authorities are not ready in future at Level 6 to offer a wide range of options, they will have failed their responsibilities.
Time appears to be short. The options I believe should be made available to the publics; they need development and distribution in advance prior to humans’ encounter with highly pathogenic pandemic flu.
Posted May 29th, 2007 at 6:54 pmJust checking back in and finding so much more! I am going to increase my supply preparation, and I am going to get a supply list to everyone I know or come in contact with. I find that more people are interested in the short term news than in the eventuality of a long term plan. If we planned for our survival like we plan for college, perhaps more people would be prepared. What about all those college students? Maybe the colleges and universities would be a good venue for educating a high risk group and one that may not be able to get back to family easily. If the young people could be motivated emotionally, they could have a tremendous impact, as history shows. And if talking about mass graves doesn’t make you shudder, I don’t know what will. Another way to make a quick emotional jolt would be to stage the mortality rate and absenteeism in a manner similar to the drunk driving fatalities, where the % of students wear black. How many funerals Will you miss? Who will be taken? How many family members will you lose? Maybe some simple probability and statistics graphs could be developed for groups that would hit home the devastation that could occur, and how preparation might mitigate it.
Posted May 29th, 2007 at 11:46 pmI’m back to respond to as many more comments as I can in the time I have…
Science Teacher, Lugon - I think the issue is not so much trying to keep people from panicking, but to try to keep them from feeling so overwhelmed with the size of the issue that they tune it out completely (as I think has happened with the issue of global warming). Just promoting one or two key actions in different phases of a campaign could help to prevent that (e.g., every time you go the store, buy one extra can of food to add to your stockpile). Also, people know that they should have extra food stored in case of whatever natural disasters occur in their area, so preparation can serve dual purposes. It’s the pandemic-specific measures (e.g., medications, medical supplies) that will be harder to convince people to purchase.
kts1 and Kobie, thanks for your creative suggestions for how to facilitate getting people to take action. People with various types of disabilities and their caregivers definitely require customized messages.
Atropine, you bring up many excellent questions about how to frame the messages. To get people to act, they do need to believe that the threat is real and serious. That doesn’t mean that the way we convey the message always has to be done in a serious way (humor can be very effective too) or that the message has to focus on the negative consequences of inaction.
You asked “Is molding your message to a “target audience” as necessary when all humans are motivated by the same thing–not dying? Is it possible that there does not need to be as much custom tailoring as in, say, selling a car? Some people want their cars to add to their status, some want good gas mileage, some want cargo room.” You’re right that ultimately human nature is geared toward survival if a person is put into a situation that requires him to address immediate life and death concerns. But prior to a pandemic outbreak, when life is still normal, we need to look at what will most motivate different types of people — and it’s not always going to be avoiding death. If this were the best motivator, nobody would start smoking and everyone would exercise and eat right.
The values we appeal to may vary for different groups of people depending upon their ages, their stage of life, the places they live, their culture or religion, and so we may need to have many different kinds of messages appealing to those emotional motivators that will get people to take action. For some it could be wanting to take care of their family, for others it could be the desire for control, or fitting in with their peers, or to be seen as smart or to feel secure.
We would need to do research with different sectors of the population to learn more about what messages will be most effective. Does anyone know whether this type of audience research has been done on this topic?
Posted May 30th, 2007 at 2:54 amHow can we convince public officials to take action and make sure their agencies and constituents are prepared? I think we have some additional tools that can be used to leverage policy that could not be used in our communications with the rest of the population. If they are elected officials, they need to feel the heat from voters. Organize letter-writing or phone campaigns among those in your community who see this as an important issue. Meet directly with the officials and their staffers. Try to get the media — including bloggers who cover local issues — to highlight the fact that your government is unprepared to deal with a pandemic (of course, that means educating the media about the issue as well). Emphasize to the officials that they are the ones who will receive the blame if things don’t go well, but they will look like heroes if they are ready to go when the pandemic hits.
Pressure can also come from above, if HHS ties distribution of certain types of local grants to demonstrated panflu preparedness. Additionally, there are things that HHS or state agencies can do to make it easier for local municipalities to get the word out, such as by offering printer-ready customizable brochures, posters and ads; low-literacy and multiple language materials; and other resources that could be developed centrally and adapted to every location.
So, the public officials need to know we are watching, and at the same time we need to make it as easy as possible for them to do the right thing.
Posted May 30th, 2007 at 4:46 amNedra Weinreich Post#26 Thank you for taking the time to read our posts. I hope you feel the blog is going well.
How to motivate Government officials.
Complain.
Complain.
Complain.
Complain.
Let them know you are not happy.
Let them know what would make you happy.
Let them know you are not alone.
Remind them that even though this may get ugly and tuff, they asked for it. They wanted our vote. They took on the moral responsibility. They took the opportunity to sit in that chair from other candidates who also got votes.
Ohh yea the government people I’ve meet have actually been pretty nice. My state rep is probably the best of all. Just ask for some time, have the problem and possible solutions (multiple solutions if possible) outlined and say this affects a lot of people. Please help us this way.
So why complain - very little action has been taken over a long period of time. Very little has been done since Y2K or Sept-11th. CERT and some courses are good - but who reads them? Who gets involved? H5N1 will affect many with little hope of outside help arriving.
As Dr. Dave pointed out - the people here are mainly computer literate folks who went looking for H5N1 information - not you average Dick and Jane.
On one blog several people have said “I do not feel comfortable posting on HHS website. I will make a fool of my self or waste time.” Kinda sad because there are so many more people with good ideas, good information and helpful life experiences.
Making H5N1 a 2008 presidential campaign issue does not seem right. H5N1 might become a temporary political football, not a long term problem to be solved. Much preparation is best done by the individual & community - not stored in some far off bunker deep in a mountain.
Regards,
Posted May 30th, 2007 at 12:56 pmKobie
Unless the message is dictated as primary on the plate, the mid-level employee, the guy and gal who execute the decisions, will NOT do their job well.
Until this is given its appropriate due, I will bet dollars to donuts that this effort will lead to frustration.
Swift recognized this in his Gulliver’s Travels. He termed their leadership as heads on platters, living in La Puta. They thought and spoke well, but they could do nothing because they were policy makers without capability to execute on the policy.
It has been my experience, and I work in this arena daily, that government workers at all levels, and non-invested employees as well, all do their jobs and think about not being at work. They are not creative, as a group. They are will do nothing that involves risk. They are charged with responsibility but without authority. The consequence is inaction.
Wishes are one thing; policy decisions that reward the lower levels will imo be the only way any policy or strategy developed will get effectuated.
Worse, there are fiefdoms, well known to all of us, held by those just below the senior individual who may have a lovely idea or dozens. Those people must be attended to.
Posted May 30th, 2007 at 4:17 pmNo Sale.
During a pandemic sale items should disappear as demand outstrips supply. Those used to buying things on sale will find them fewer and fewer.
Some luxury items or entertainment items may also be no sale as the middle class will focus on food and safety.
During Katrina the TV sation did a great thing - it broadcast the news 24 hours a day for a week with no commercials. I think it was for a week.
Hence commercial air time might temporally vaporize.
Why advertise concert, baseball, movies when they have been shut down to reduce the spread of disease. Cruise lines, LasVegas gambling, travel, airports and conventions may be prohibited temporally. Hard to keep 6′ of distance in a crowed.
Some luxury items will still sell as the upper crust will still shop.
Just a thought about NO SALE period.
Regards,
Posted May 31st, 2007 at 11:06 amKobie
Nedra Weinreich,
Today is June 1st, the start of Hurricane season along the east coast. While Katrina, Andrew, Gloria are talked about - few prepare.
I think more people prep for the super bowl than disasters. People get excited about watching commercials *during* the game!
You are right, Apple and Nike have done a lot but look at what Anheuser(sp?) Busch has done with their commercials. Remember the little horse trying to pull the beer wagon and the two big horsed pushing from behind? That was a commercial.
I feel sorry it looks bad for beer companies like Busch to make donations to church groups or youth organizations. But with H5N1 hitting kids harder than the 40+ crowed it would be nice if they had a commercial to teach the parents and the kids. I would rather have Busch than MTV make the commercial. So here is to you Mr. commercial maker, people need your help. If its not copy write infringement of a trademark statement: “This Bud’s for you.”
We need a message. Unfortunately even seeing the devastation of hurricanes again and again does not get people to change. For many of us - this is our first pandemic.
Have a great weekend and thanks for the blog.
Regards
Posted June 1st, 2007 at 10:42 amKobie
Having had to engage in public health “marketing” the biggest problem I see is how we “cut through the noise” of issues we all face on a daily basis and make this or that “the priority.”
We, in public health are chaged with often conflicting priorities “seemingly” and most are (at some level) trying to engage in an “all hazards” type of approach and while preparing for events like a Pandemic, we need to communicate that “preparedness” goes beyond just this particular issue. We can use a “particular issue” like a pandemic to get across important points but we need to tie them into the larger picture also in that, for example, preparation for one thing also prepares you for others like natural disasters etc.
You have a danger in that if you concentrate on one thing, “Pandemic Influenza” and someone or large groups of somones are NOT convinced it is a real threat, then they might scoff and NOT prepare for anything because they have in their minds tied what (in this case) public health wants to that issue. Marketing can be a multiple edged sword.
For example, we want our schools to prepare, but were warned that the administrators don’t think this is a priority even though it has been designated one nationally. OK, then what is a priority? The thought of having trench coated people walk in with guns is a generalization of their priorities I was told.
OK, what is a common denominator that will help them in both an influenza pandemic and with their more immediate perceived threat. National Incidence Management Systems (NIMS) training is what.
So, we tie that into a template for Pandemic Influenza preparedness and note the template itself can be used for other threats and begin to get buy in and also begin the process of building a foundation for addressing a variety of threats
Having had to write a state Pan Flu Risk Communications Plan and community containment plans I still feel that the Australian Chief Medical officer summarized the issues best in May 2005 when he said, “The competing temptations are “it won’t happen here complacency, “there’s nothing we can do” fatalism, or “no precaution is too great” alarmism…Even so, it’s hard to discuss potential disasters outside of people’s ordinary experience without generating the sort of lurid headlines which make some scoff and others panic. It’s important not to over-react to potential threats. On the other hand, people and governments need to take credible threats seriously and take reasonable and proportionate precautions against them.”
Now, how do we do this? very carefully.
Posted June 5th, 2007 at 2:08 pmNow, how do we do this? very carefully.
yes, very carefully, but with many hats at the table. In my school district, incorporating NIMS and camera surveillance into an ‘all-hazards task force’ featuring panflu as the biggest hazard was successful in highlighting the issue to our local BoE (that doesn’t mean we are ready or that the Board has accepted all the recommendations). At the table were police, fire and PTA, building and grounds, principals and teachers. They all learned about panflu while we all learned or relearned NIMS (I participated as a medical advisor).
Everyone felt they had a hand in the report and everyone felt they got to be part of the solution.
Using NIMS as a unifying concept is a great idea that does work. But those that speak NIMS actually appreciate learning about panflu.
So, incorporating panflu into the same local task force that also planned for Columbine or VA tech-style events (with the city’s supportive blessing; credit goes to our local health department) was another way to legitimize the discussion.
Posted June 5th, 2007 at 5:57 pm“In my school district, incorporating NIMS and camera surveillance into an ‘all-hazards task force’ featuring panflu as the biggest hazard was successful in highlighting the issue to our local BoE (that doesn’t mean we are ready or that the Board has accepted all the recommendations). At the table were police, fire and PTA, building and grounds, principals and teachers. They all learned about panflu while we all learned or relearned NIMS (I participated as a medical advisor).”
Exactly! And it also nudges the educational infrastructures toward a working relationship with the public health and emergency preparedness authorities in ways they never worked together before. The final “kit” for our state can be located at www.kasb.org/panflu We also target yearly flu with creative “marketing” based approaches that then overlap with our pandemic preparedness. “Flu Bug U” does that in our plans.
Marketing concepts should play a role in all of this so understanding the nature of that field or having technical assistance in that area can be very beneficial for getting all of our messages across. And there is no reason that citizens themselves cannot take the online courses for NIMS and then use that expertise to help their local community organizations (faith- based, other) orient themselves toward what they might do to help in a pandemic.
These organizations could very likely be the key to success in a pandemic or other societal crisis. Self reliance individually and locally could be crucial in a partial breakdown of society. Understanding how the societal infrastructures charged with responding to crisis function can be very beneficial for all parties. Taking that information and communicating it effectively is a learnable skill.
Posted June 6th, 2007 at 9:33 amThese blogs/websites are great, but if someone who was just starting out read these they probably would never return. For too many it is such a scary issue they don’t want to go there, and they won’t.
I did want to comment on the stockpiling of food & water for two weeks (or longer as some suggest)for each person in your household. We have been storing food/water for years, but never could do even one week for each person. Can you imagine how much water you would have to store and where would you put it? We are in the suburbs but can you imagine what urban dwellers would be doing? Where would urban folks put all that water & food even if they could afford to buy a can a week? Stocking up on food & water is a must but the timeframes stated here are enough to depress even this emergency preparedness minded person. Can you imagine what two weeks looks to a “newbie?” Keep up the great work.
Posted June 6th, 2007 at 12:43 pmKmilhon
“And it also nudges the educational infrastructures toward a working relationship with the public health and emergency preparedness authorities in ways they never worked together before.”
That’s true, and a huge bonus. Thanks for that kit link!
Hamilton
more on ‘doom and gloom’ here and here.
Posted June 6th, 2007 at 1:49 pmHi, Hamilton,
Everyone on the flu forums was a ‘newbie’ at some point and for the most part have been successfully guided through the overwhelming feelings we all had in the beginning. You don’t see hysteria on these sites and this helps provide a model for newcomers to begin to tackle the prepping in a manageable way.
I posted on the Secretary’s blog about something called a Water Bob. It is a heavy duty plastic water holder that is designed to fit in a bathtub. It connects to the faucet for filling and will hold 100 gal. of water. It comes in a small box and costs under $35.00. Much easier to have on hand then trying to store 100 gallons of water in individual bottles.
You will also find some very creative ideas on how to store supplies in a small apartment along with the best poster recommended places to buy food in bulk which is always cheaper.
All of the forums have some great suggestions.
Posted June 6th, 2007 at 1:49 pmHamilton: re water storage.
That is a large problem. It’s why many have decided that a household, unless you own a very large house, could not possibly store enough.
The back-up is water purification. If the water flowing from your tap or taken from natural sources is not drinkable, you must have ways to make it so. This involves everything from crude filtering (to remove large particles if needed) followed by the right amount of chlorine bleach added to the water for long enough time, to high-tech water purifiers that will deal with VIRUSES used by wilderness campers and backpackers and military. Any purifier that deals with VIRUSES is a step up from ordinary water filters.
But, again, that means AWARENESS of the potential problem and acquiring and storing (and practicing with!) the necessary tools to purify water.
And, no, two years ago I did not have a clue about any of this…
Posted June 6th, 2007 at 1:52 pmDon’t know exactly where to ask this question — here looks like a good place.
Posted June 17th, 2007 at 9:43 amExactly what is known about the comunicability of the avian flu virus? Have any studies yet been done, or done and published, that establish how long it will survive on various surfaces or in other media, at various temperatures, and whether it is killed by sunlight or UV light, and whether it can be filtered out of the air with HEPA filters? How long can it sit on skin before it ‘burrows in’ and can’t be washed off — with water, soap, special disinfectants?
How long will it hang in the air? Can it transmit in daylight through the air over back yard fences? Will it die off in atmospheric temperatures greater than 100 degrees? Spread in humid type environments? On shared utensils? Coughs and sneezes? Clothing?
How long is it viable in chicken dung? Human feces? Does it survive freezing?
Seems like there is little info on even regular flu contagion readily available; are there any efforts to find out exactly how this avian virus survives outside the body?
Seems to me that a lot could be done to stop the flu if it could be found that UV kills it — then all air travelers would simply have to walk through UV chambers to eliminate problems —
It lasts about 5 minutes on your hands and weeks in pond water under optimal climate conditions. Washing your hands helps. Sneezing and coughing can generate infective aerosols and large particles. There are likely multiple routes of transmission.
For more on transmissibility, see
Posted June 17th, 2007 at 10:33 amPoppy;
Posted June 17th, 2007 at 12:35 pmRight now, the avian virus prefers chicken to “beef”. Through a myriad of mutations and other processes, it could develop a taste for human receptors similar to seasonal flu if it becomes a “human” virus. There is a great deal of information in the Fluwikie and Internet about this.