SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 920 AM MST FRI MAR 17 2000 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DRY...AND WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND MOST OTHER PLACES LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP THROUGH EASTERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GIVING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...BUT NO RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA OR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. .DISCUSSION... SOUNDINGS CONTINUED DRY AT 12Z WITH ONLY SLIGHT RH INCREASES BTWN 20K AND 30K...MNLY ACROSS NRN AZ. THIS DUE TO TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR NW AT 12Z. RUC AND ETA SIMILAR ON INITIAL HEIGHTS AND BOTH SHOW MEAGER RH ACROSS AZ THIS MORNING. NGM BEST RH AT 700MB LATE TODAY REMAINS ALONG A GLOBE-DOUGLAS LN AND DCREASES BY MDNIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS SFC WINDS. 12Z DATA IS STILL SHOWING AN INCREASE IN GRADIENT...BUT ONLY FOR NRN PORTIONS OF AZ AND WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT AFFECTS ON OUR CWFA. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS ALONG THE RIVER AND WESTWARD...BLH ALREADY AT 15KTS. WINDS TO KEEP BLOWING TONIGHT...BUT A QUICK COMPARISON BTWN OLD AND NEW 850 WINDS FOR 12Z SHOW A VERY SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEEDS FOR LOWER COLORADO RVR AREA...WITH "CORE" STILL REMAINING BTWN BLYTHE AND THERMAL FOR 12Z SATURDAY. MOS SFC SPEEDS ALSO BACKING OFF A BIT FOR YUMA AND PHX. ETA AND NGM FAIRLY CLOSE ON 500MB HGTS THRU SATURDAY MORNING...BUT BY SUNDAY MRNG NGM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA. MODELS STILL SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM EDGING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH LVL RH FOR EARLY NEXT WK. NO UPDATES. SIPPLE N az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 843 PM EST FRI MAR 17 2000 LOW PRESSURE FLAT OVER THE REGION AS COLD FRONT MOVING PAST SOUTHERN CWA ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN OKLAHOMA WITH WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE US. CURRENT TEMPS AND CLOUDS IN FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. MAY TWEAK WITH WINDS TONIGHT AS FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS BUT NOT UNTIL THE NEXT PERIOD TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CWA. NEW RUC INDICATES WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THEY ARE ABOUT 5 KNOTS LESS AGAINST FORECAST 02Z TIME AND CURRENT CONDITIONS FROM LOOKING UPSTREAM. WILL STILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR NORTHERN LEG BY MORNING. 11 .JAX... GA...NONE. FL...NONE. fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 215 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT S/W ACROSS N CNTRL TX ASSOC WITH STRONG 28 VORT WHICH IS KICKING OFF CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS E TX. RUC SHOWS S/W THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA EARLIER TODAY MOVING E OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SHORT RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH NEXT WAVE THOUGH NGM IS BRINGING STRONGER SYS A BIT FURTHER S THAN THE ETA...AND ETA HAS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS PROGD WITH THE NEXT SYS AND AVN THE MOST. NGM POPS IN THE 10-20 RANGE LOOK TOO LOW SAT CONSIDERING UPPER SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES TRACKING OFF THE NE CST WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND SAT...EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES BY 06Z TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARY LYR WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NE. WILL SEE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG NE-E SFC-LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SSW MOIST FLOW AT 850 MB AHEAD OF NEXT S/W. FOR TODAY...LOW LEVEL MOSITURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL SEE LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EARLY THIS A.M. FOLLOWED BY SKIES BECMG PTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTN AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT SRN ZONES WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN. SAT...WILL BUMP UP NGM POPS UP A BIT ON SAT WITH UPPER S/W MOVING IN AND SOME LOW LEVEL WAA. MAY LIMIT TSTM CHCS TO FL ZONES BUT WILL WAIT ON SWODY2 FOR FINAL CALL ON THAT ONE...AS NGM/ETA SFC LIS RISE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE GA ZONES WITH THE "WEDGE" DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH NGM/AVN MOS TEMPS CLOSE AND WILL ACCEPT. MARINE: MODELS FCST WINDS TO DROP OFF TODAY BUT CURRENT BUOY WINDS BORDERING ON SMALL CRAFT. WILL MAKE FINAL CALL AFTER 3 AND 4 AM BUOY OBS. EXPECT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. EXTENDED: AVN FORECASTING WET SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE EXTRAPOLATION FROM SHORTER RANGE MODELS. I KNOW ITS STILL FAR OFF...BUT COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG (SVR?) TSTMS SUNDAY IF LATEST AVN FCST PANS OUT. WILL WAIT ON NEW MRF FOR UPDTS TO MON AND TUE...IF ANY. PRELIM TEMPS & POPS... TLH 79 53 71 52 1145 PFN 75 56 71 54 1156 DHN 74 51 66 50 -156 ABY 75 50 64 49 -156 VLD 80 52 69 50 -145 TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. VOLKMER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 915 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2000 UPDATING ZONES MAINLY FOR CLOUD WORDING AS ALL LOCATIONS CLOUDY NOW. SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ON OUR DOORSTEP AND 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS IN OK. COLUMN CONTINUING TO MOISTEN AS PER FORECAST BUT PRECIP IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY AND PROBABLY NOT TIL MORNING HOURS. I AM BEGINNING TO QUESTION PRECIP TYPE AS WE ARE UNDER GOOD WAA AND TEMPS NOT FALLING OFF AND PROBABLY WONT WITH THE CLOUD COVER. WE COULD BE RAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH SNOW IN THE NORTH. FACTORS AGAINST THIS ARE THE RUC ANALYSIS AND SOUNDINGS WHICH STILL SHOW A DEEP ENOUGH COLD LAYER FOR THE PRECIP TO BE SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT EVAPORATIVE COOLING. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE PRECIP WORDING AS IS BECAUSE IT WILL LIKELY NOT GET GOING BEFORE THE NEXT ZONE PKG IS OUT AND THEY WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO LOOK AT NEW MODEL DATA. .DSM...NONE FAB ia SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 830 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2000 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ILL-DEFINED FRONT ALONG UPPER TX COASTLINE AND INLAND ACROSS S LA JUST NORTH OF I-10 AND US 190. KIND OF A BATTLE BETWEEN LOW CLOUD DECK FORMING (PER 11-3.9 MICRON SAT IMAGERY...SFC OBS...ETC) AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HERE'S THE RESULT. WILL LEAVE WINDS ALONE IN ZONES...LIGHT WINDS WILL DO FINE. WILL CHANGE MOSTLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS VARIOUS ZONES. SINCE SE TX IS APPARENTLY NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS BY 2 DEGREES NOW...WILL BUMP A CATEGORY DOWN...DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. RUC DOESN'T SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM. ZONE UPDATE WILL FOLLOW. .LCH... LA...NONE TX...NONE UPDATED NUMBERS... BPT 57/78/60/70 0285 LCH 59/76/59/69 0285 LFT 59/76/60/69 0186 AEX 53/68/53/66 0287 8 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1035 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000 LATEST SFC CHART SHOWS HI PRES OVR SRN ONTARIO WITH RDG AXIS STRETCHING ACRS CWA. VIS SAT LOOP INDICATES RESIDUAL SCT LK SC IN NELY FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF HI FM MQT EWD WITH APX SDNG SHOWING HIER LLVL MSTR BLO INVRN HGT AT H825. GRB SDNG A BIT DRIER IN LLVLS. SFC HI UNDER EXPANSIVE UPR RDG ACRS SCNTRL CAN E OF PAC SHRTWV MOVG THRU SW CAN. HUGE 12HR H3-5 HGT RISES WITHIN RDG AXIS INDICATE THIS SYS BLDG WITH CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE/WAD AS ARCTIC AIR ACRS ERN CAN EVACUATING EWD IN STRG SLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC-H85 RDG AXIS. CONSIDERABLE HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH OVRRNG HAS MOVD AS FAR E AS H5 RDG AXIS IN NCNTRL MN...BUT LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLD HAS TENDED TO DRY OUT AS IT MOVES INTO SUBSIDING AIR WITHIN RDG. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY REVOLVE ARND CLD TRENDS AND TEMPS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS RDG AXIS MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ON CWA TDAY. AS UPR RDG SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD BY THIS AFTN INTO CWA...XPCT HI CLD TO GRDLY OVRSPRD CWA W-E BUT NOT TO REACH ERN ZNS UNTIL LATE. WITH SFC RDG IN PLACE MOST OF DAY...RUC SHOWS SFC-H85 WAD AFFECTING ONLY WRN ZNS AFTR 21Z. BUT STRG SUBSIDENCE FCST TO RAISE H85 TEMPS 2-3C. THIS SUBSIDENCE SHUD ALSO DSPT ANY LINGERING LK CLD...BUT XPCT SOME DIURNAL CU OVR ECNTRL ZNS INTO AFTN GIVEN RATHER MOIST LLVL APX SDNG. 12Z GRB SDNG SHOWS LTL POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CU DVLPMNT AND DRY AIR WITHIN LGT ACYC FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE...SO NO LOW CLD OVR WRN CWA AFTR ANY LINGERING LK SC DSPTS THERE. NEEDED TO ADD ABOUT 12C ON TO H85 TEMPS UPSTREAM YDAY FOR HI TEMP. SINCE RUC SHOWING SUBSIDENCE WRMG H85 TEMPS TO ARND -12C TDAY... XPCT MAX TO REACH LO 30S MOST ZNS. IWD WL BE A BIT WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPE SELY FLOW. 06Z MESOETA PERSISTS IN FCSTG SSWLY 45-50KT H85 WNDS INTO LK SUP OVRNGT...SO HAVE KEPT GALE WRNG FOR LK SUP. .MQT...GALE WRNG LK SUP. KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 600 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000 UPDATE IS IN ORDER WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS BREAKING OVR KEWEENAW AND INVADING MOST OF SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY ATTM. IR SAT AND METARS SHOW LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON OVR ERN UPR MI NOW ADVANCING INTO SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. BELIEVE LK CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL THERMAL TROF EVADES WHICH IS 18Z PER RUC. THEREFORE WL ADD MORNING CLOUD WORDING. MEANWHILE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVR KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS SFC HIGH TO NORTH HAS CALMED WINDS WHICH LIMITS ANY FLOW OVR LK TO HELP SUSTAIN CLOUDS. IN ADDITION EARLIER QVECTOR FORCING IS OFF TO EAST. THUS...SUN FADING BEHIND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON NOW WL BE THE STORY. .MQT...GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 830 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2000 FORECAST CONCERN OR CHALLENGE TONIGHT ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL ND SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. LATEST RUC MODEL PROGGED THIS FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MN BY 12Z SATURDAY. LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH CNTRL AND EAST CENTRAL MN. THE LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATED SOME PHASING OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND JET STREAMS. BOTH THE 850 MB AND 700 MB UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED SOME MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD. PREVIOUS THINKING SEEM REASONABLE BY KEEPING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER CWA TONIGHT...AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. .MSP...NONE. JVM mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 940 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000 COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS FROM CAE EASTWARD WERE IN THE 50S AT 13Z AND APPROACHING THE 40S OVER EXTREME NW SC. 12Z SOUNDINGS EVEN OVER CHS AND GSO SHOW W TO NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH SPEEDS TO 30 KTS AT CHS BLO 900 MB. THE LATEST RUC PUSHES FRONTAL TROUGH THRU THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW LAKE WINDS ADVSY CRITERIA...ALTHO WILL PUT NW 15-20 AND GUSTY. PATCHY SC CLOUDS OVER THE CWA SHOULD NOT PREVENT PRETTY GOOD DAYTIME HEATING TO THE LOWER 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. 850 CAA KICKS IN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND 40S LOOK GOOD FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT. .CAE...NONE. BLP sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 320 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2000 MAIN CHALLENGES TONIGHT INCLUDE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...AND WINDS FAR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SD MOVES EAST INTO CWA. WV LOOP AND IR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY E MT THROUGH N AZ. MOST ENERGY IN THIS TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE S END ...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG S/W EVIDENT IN WV OVER N AZ AND UT. ABR 88D SHOWS A BAND OF RETURNS...UP TO ABOUT 24 DBZ...BUT NOTHING SO FAR TO CONFIRM ANY PRECIP EMANATING FROM THIS AREA...WHICH PASSED DIRECTLY OVER MBG WITH NO PRECIP AND ONLY A 5KFT CIG. ETA IS THE FAVORED MODEL FOR ITS DEPICTION OF MAJOR FEATURES INTIALLY AND AT 18Z...AND IT DOES GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SFC AND U/L TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS AREA...SO WITH WHAT IS SEEN IN SAT AND RADAR LOOPS...AS WELL AS A FEW UPSTREAM OBS WITH PRECIP...CAN'T RULE OUT CHANCES FOR EASTERN CWA...BUT WILL REMOVE MENTION WEST AND SW. AS FAR AS WINDS GO...WILL LIKELY LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE WITH ISSUANCE OF NEW ZONES. WINDS ARE DECREASING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS FROM W TO E. WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH EARLY EVENING FAR EAST...BUT ETA AND RUC WINDS ALSO SUPPORT THE DOWNWARD TREND OF WINDS. AS SFC TROUGH SLIDES...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND SHIFT TO W-NW TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...AVN MUCH MORE MOIST THAN IS THE ETA...AND BELIEVE MOISTURE IS OVERDONE. AGAIN...WILL FOLLOW ETA WHICH HAS MUCH DRIER AIR AND DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW AND ANTICIPATED SUNSHINE...BELIEVE TEMPS IN THE WEST WILL CLIMB SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN WEST. ...EXTENDED DISCUSSION... MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET. NEW AVN IS INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES THAN THE MRF...SO WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A SLOWED MRF SOLUTION. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK PVA AND 1000-500 MB RH VALUES ABOVE 85 PERCENT. WESTERN CWA WILL LIKELY SEE THIS FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WHEN TEMPS AND THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW. WILL WORD AS A MIX THERE WITH JUST RAIN IN THE EAST WHERE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL TEMPS RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO COLORADO ON TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE FROM IT EXTENDING INTO THE DAKOTAS. H85 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES RISE A LITTLE WITH DRYING RH VALUES. THE LARGE HIGH THEN MOVES OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. H85 TEMPS RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY MILD DAY. .ABR...NONE. LORENS/AP sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 837 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2000 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN OK THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALREADY AS FAR EAST AS PARTS OF WEST TN AND NORTHWEST MS. KNQA 88D INDICATING REFLECTIVITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 DBZ INTO EASTERN AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW. SURFACE REPORTS ACROSS MOST OF AR SHOWING ONLY LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS. 00Z LZK UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS ATMOSPHERE RATHER DRY BELOW 900 MB WITH WIND FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST. LATEST RUN OF THE RUC MODEL SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING. WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA. ACROSS NORTHEAST AR..MO BOOTHEEL...SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST MS...WILL REMOVE TIMING ON POPS SINCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALREADY ABOUT INTO THE AREA. ALSO WILL CHANGE WORDING OF INCREASING CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT TO CLOUDY. WILL LEAVE PRESENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALONE. .MEM...NONE. tn SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 800 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2000 WEAK SHALLOW COLD FRONT SLOWLY INCHING TOWARDS GLS. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ON TOP OF FRONT EXPECTED TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER CWFA. PROBLEM 1ST PERIOD WILL BE NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WAFFLE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S NORTHERN HALF...NEAR 50 ELSEWHERE EXCEPT LOWER 60S GLS TO HIGH ISLAND COASTAL REGION. BELIEVE DEWPOINTS SHOULD STILL DROP COASTAL AREA AS FRONT SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD. RUC INDICATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING COAST LATER TONIGHT. IF SHALLOW COOL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON...MITIGATING OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT PERHAPS COASTAL ZONES. HOWEVER...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF POSSIBLE FOG LATER TONIGHT COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT ZONES. WILL ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TEMPS A CATEGORY DOWNWARD FOR CENTRAL AND COASTAL ZONES IN LIGHT OF AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING SITUATION. WILL ALSO TAKE OFF MENTION OF POPS TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WHICH IS GETTING RAPIDLY WEAKER...WILL STAY N/NE OF CWFA. .KHGX...NONE. 37/38 CLL BE 045/075 046/063 045 225 IAH BE 051/077 052/069 049 225 GLS BE 060/074 061/067 055 125 tx TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 800 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2000 WILL UPDATE A BIT EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS SPREADING W ACROSS NRN AND ERN ZNS ATTM. WILL ALSO MENTION F WITH GOOD UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO WIND AND HIGH DPS ACROSS WRN OK IN SOURCE REGION. SFC LOW DEVELOPING ERN NM FCST TO MOVE E ACROSS SW ZNS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING FETCH THROUGH 09Z. ALSO 00Z RUC/12Z ETA/MESOETA INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT/STRONG H8 WAA ACROSS MAINLY SE ZNS AHEAD OF SYSTEM THIS EVE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. SINCE POPS/SPRINKLES ALREADY MENTIONED WILL NOT ADD THIS TO FCST BUT TAKE OUT LATE WORDING. THCKNS VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP SE ZNS HOWEVER LATEST RUC AGREES WITH 12Z ETA IN DROPPING H8 TEMPS AOB 0C BY 12Z SAT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ZNS. IF COLUMN REMAINS SATURATED AS KDDC SOUNDING INDICATES WE COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ON N SIDE OF SYSTEM AS SFC TEMPS DROP. WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT 00Z RUNS BEFORE ADJUSTING POPS/PRECIP TYPE. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. COBB tx SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 940 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2000 LATEST RUC INDICATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTG ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA THRU 21Z..SO WILL LIKELY LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THRU THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. SFC GRADIENT A BIT WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND VAD WNDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE IN THE LOWER COUPLE THOUSAND FEET SO WILL LOWER WINDS A CAT AND DROP THE CAUTION FOR LAKES. LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO CREEP BACK NWWD OVER THE WRN CWA AND MAY HAVE TO CHANGE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE THINNING AS THEY ADVANCE. APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF FROM THE NW SHOULD HELP KICK OUT THE UPR LOW OVER N TX/OK..BUT LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME EVER LEAVING AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT VIEW OFF THE ETA. .EWX...NONE. 01/19 tx EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON 920 AM PST FRI MAR 17 2000 SATELLITE PICTURES AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE AREAS OF VIRGA/SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A ZONE UPDATE TO SPEED THINGS UP. AS PRECIP WAS PASSING OVER THE KOTX RADAR SITE...BASE REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT SUGGESTED THE PRECIP WAS FALLING ABOUT AS LOW AS 2500 FEET BEFORE MOSTLY EVAPORATING...SO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS MAY NOT GET ANYTHING. NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH THE 15Z RUC SUGGESTING HEALTHY 850 MB WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING ACROSS THE AREA BY 03Z. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO SLOW WITH THE PAST TWO SYSTEMS...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP THIS IN MIND ON THE AFTN PKG. WILL UPDATE ZONES AGAIN AROUND NOON TO REMOVE ANY MORNING WORDING. ...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS... GEG 045/034/046 258 CQV 049/032/047 258 S86 044/032/044 248 COE 045/033/045 248 WWP 044/031/043 248 LWS 053/039/054 147 MOS 047/035/050 EAT 047/034/048 156 .GEG...NONE. wa NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO 1230 AM MST SAT MAR 18 2000 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: CLOUD TOPS COOLING RAPIDLY UPSTREAM OVR WY AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING 300-500MB POT VORT AND FNT LEFT QUAD OF 110+ KT JET TRACKING SEWRD TOWARD NRN UT ATTM. PCPN NOW SHOWING UP ON THE REGION NEXRAD NETWORK (NOWRAD) ACRS SERN ID..NRN UT AND WRN WY. LATEST RUC..ETA..NGM AND AVN ALL SHOW THIS ROGUE POT VORT NOT ON ERLY MDL RUNS...TRACKING SEWRD OVR NERN CO DURING THE NXT 12 HRS OR SO. SFC-850 MB WIND AND PRES FIELDS ALSO SHOW A WK SURGE UP IN SERN WY ATTM SLIDING SWRD ACRS NERN CO PLAINS NXT 6-9 HRS. MEANWHILE NWLY BNDRY LYR WINDS PROGD TO VEER ARND TO A N-NELY DIR AND INCREASE IN SPD DURING MRNG HRS ON SAT. NGM SHOWS UPWARDS OF 2-3 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SAT AFTN OVR THE NERN PLNS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES IN THE N-CNTRL MTNS. AVN SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME BY 18Z/SAT... WITH AS MUCH AS 4-5 INCH TOTALS ON ERN PORTIONS OF NERN PLNS AND 1-3 INCHES IN THE MTNS BY 00Z/SUN. WHAT A STICKY WICKET. IF WE BUY OFF ON NEW MDL DATA...WILL HV TO MAKE BIG REVISION TO REST OF 1ST AND 2ND PDS. NOT SURE I'LL GO WITH SNOW AMTS AS HIGH AS THOSE GIVEN BY THE ETA AND AVN...BUT WILL UP POPS TO AT LEAST 40-50 PCT IN ZNS ADJCNT TO THE FNT RNG FTHLS...AND GO WITH LIKELYS IN THE MTNS AND REMAINDER OF THE NERN PLNS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. BLV MDLS A TAD TOO SLOW WITH CLRG ON SAT...SO WILL GO PARTLY CLDY BY AFTN MOST OF CWA. ONCE TROF PASSAGE AND STG NWLY JET MOVS OVRHEAD...SHOULD SEE W-NWLY SFC WINDS INCREASING...ESPLY OVR HIR ELVTNS AND ADJCNT PLAINS WITH THE ONSET OF CAA. WILL ADD STRONGER WINDS TO THESE ZONES FOR SAT AFTN...ALG WITH THE PSBLY OF BLOWING SNOW ON THE MTN PASSES. UPDATE TO THE ZONE PACKAGE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY AS WELL AS AN SPS TO BRING ATTENTION TO CHANGE TO SHRT TERM FCST. BAKER DEN...NONE. co EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 230 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 CURRENTLY...WEAK (PRE) FRONTAL TROUGH WAS EVIDENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH MAIN SURGE OF COOLER AIR INDICATED WELL TO THE NORTH. STREAM OF PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUED. ONLY RADAR ECHOES OCCURRING WERE BETWEEN THE PALM BEACHES AND GRAND BAHAMA...AND WERE MOVING LITTLE. TODAY...MODELS SHOW SURGE OF NORTHEAST FLOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA ...THOUGH LATEST RUC SHOWS THAT THIS WILL BE A TAD SLOWER THAN THE 00Z RUN. AIR MASS WILL BE MODIFIED SUBSTANTIALLY BY LONG FETCH THEREFORE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER (1.1 TO 1.3). SHOWER CHANCES LOOK SMALL BUT EXPECT THAT THE SURGE OF NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FEW DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PUSHING ONSHORE. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE WHERE THERE IS A CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE. GIVEN THE VERY LOW GUIDANCE POPS FOR TODAY...WILL GO WITH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT EXCEPT FAR SOUTH WERE 20-30 PERCENT IS OKAY. SKY COVER WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SINCE IT WILL NOT BE MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY. SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER NORTH WITH PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST SO RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SMALL. BREEZY EAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MODIFIED. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (STRATOCUMULUS) AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY DAY...OTHERWISE NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE SETTING UP BETWEEN JET ACROSS SOUTHERN GULF AND DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL TREND SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST WIND FIELDS WILL ROTATE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WEAKENING SUBSTANTIALLY DURING MONDAY. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS. MARINE...FORECAST LOOKS A LITTLE TRICKY FOR THIS MORNING AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOT BE AT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA INITIALLY BUT THEY SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY. WILL START OFF WITH WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND TREND THEM UP...BY (OR DURING) THE AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BE REACHED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... DAB BE 073/063 073/064 079 1123 MCO BE 078/063 077/062 081 1123 MLB BE 076/068 075/068 081 1123 .MLB...NONE. AVIATION/FIRE WX...DECKER PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 255 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 WHILE A FEW DETAILS ABOUT OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARE BECOMING CLEARER...MANY POSSIBILITIES REMAIN INCLUDING SOME BIG QUESTIONS WITH TIMING. IN THE SHORT TERM...CLOUD COVER THE MAIN QUEST TDA. CURRENTLY THE H85 FRONT IS BOGGING DOWN ACROSS THE NRN CWFA AND ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE RESIDING TO CREATE AN EXPANDING STRATOCU FIELD OVER THE ERN PART OF S CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. RH PROGS FROM THE 00Z MODELS SHOW A SHORT DECREASING TREND IN H85 MOISTURE BTWN 12Z-18Z TDA BUT THE RUC MAY HAVE A BETTER GRIP ON THE SITUATION. IT SEEMS THAT THE ATLC STRATO-CU WILL EVENTUALLY BLEND WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST TO THE WEST TO PRODUCE A DAY WITH VRBL CLDS BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS TIL RELEASE TIME. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE A BIT WARMER THIS RUN BUT DO NOT PLAN TO ALTER MAX TEMPS IN THE ZONES TOO MUCH AND WINDS LOOK GOOD. TONIGHT...COASTAL TROF STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE AND PLAN TO LEAVE CLOUDS AND SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST. THE ETA IS THE QUICKEST MODEL TO INTRO LIFT WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM AND ALL GUIDANCE AT LEAST HINTS AT SOME ACTIVITY ADVECTING OFF THE ATLC BY LATE NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A LOT OF STRATO-CU ENCOMPASSING THE FA AND WDLY SCT SHOWERS AROUND...BUT HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE PRIOR TO THE INCREASING OMEGA FIELDS LATE IN THE DAY. PLAN TO GO WITH 20-30 POPS COASTAL ZONES TO GOOD CHC INLAND SE GEORGIA. IT IS LIKELY THE WEDGE WILL BE BETTER DEFINED THAN THE MODELS INDICATE AND WILL PLAY TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE...ESPECIALLY INLAND ZONES. SINCE THE NEW NOGAPS SUPPORTS A FASTER ETA-LIKE SOLN...PLAN TO INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/TSTMS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS FINE BUT MAY GO FOR A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AFTER LOOKING AT NEW MRF. CWF: FRONT BLASTED THRU GRAYS REEF BTWN 05Z-06Z WITH STRONG SFC PRES RISES WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS ERN N CAROLINA. CWF IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SLOW DECREASING TREND IN SEAS AND WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE THESE TRENDS. CURRENTLY TIDAL LEVELS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WINDS BECOME MORE ENE. WE MAY NEED SOME MENTION OF SHLW CSTL FLOODING AT SOME POINT AS ONSHORE FETCH BLDS WITH TIME. PRELIM CHS BC 060/048 062/052 068 2402267 SAV BC 062/050 064/054 070 2402377 CHL BC 057/053 060/056 065 2402267 NBC BC 060/049 062/053 068 2402267 .CHS... SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY S SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANNAH OUT 20 NM. GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND OUT 60 NM. RVT sc COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 310 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2000 LATEST RUC ANALYSIS OVERLAYED ON WV IMAGERY SHOWS A 100KT JET STREAK APCHG DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ATTM WITH MOISTURE INCREASING INTO THE STATE AHEAD OF IT AS SEEN ON KCRP 88D. AT THE SURFACE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MEANDERING ALONG THE COAST BECOMING VERY SHALLOW AS SELY LOW LVL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE APCHG TROF IN WEST TEXAS. ABV THE SFC BNDRY LYR A STRONG CAP RESIDES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE WRN ZONES DRY TDY UNTIL PSBLY FROPA TNGT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. EXPECT BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER THIS AFTN AS WARM FNT MOVES INLAND AND H85 TROF ADVANCES TO A CRP-SAT LINE...HOWEVER CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLGTLY BELOW MOS PROGS. CAP SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE IN THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTN...EXPECIALLY AS THE LEFT FNT QUAD OF H25 JET INTERACTS WITH THE NWD MOVING SFC BNDRY. ETA/AVN MODELS SHOW THE AMS BECMG MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER THE VCT AREA BY MID AFTN WITH CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. PROVIDED CLOUDS ERODE AND SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE. H5 TEMPS ARE A COOL -16C...HOWEVER DUE TO WEAK SHEAR PROFILE...SVR STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. FOR TNGTS FCST I WILL TRIM POP DOWN A NOTCH AS LASTEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MORE OF A SWLY H85 FLOW OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE UP THE COAST TOWARD HOUSTON. SPC REMOVED TSTMS ALL TOGETHER IN OUR AREA WHICH I THINK IS TOO HARSH...HOWEVER THEIR SLGT RISK AREA LOOKS REASONABLE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT TNGT. STEEP LAPES RATES ALOFT...MOD INSTABILITY AND DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD A GOOD CHC OF STORMS ACROSS THE NERN COUNTIES. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG CAP..DRY ENVIRONMENT I WILL TRIM POPS TO 20%. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED STORMS IN THE WEST. WILL WORD TNGT'S FCST TURNING WINDY AND COOLER AS FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. SCA'S ARE EXPECTED IN ALL MARINE AREAS LATE TNGT PERSISTING SUN. THE GRADIENT DROPS OFF SUN AFTN...THUS TEMPS WILL REBOUND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXTENDED...MRF AND ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT BRINING ANOTHER STRONG UPR TROF INTO WEST TEXAS MON AFTN AND TUE. EXPECT A QUICK RETURN FLOW MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WAA SHOWERS ON TUE. PRELIMS FOLLOW... CRP EN 074/053 072/045 3420 NGP EN 072/055 069/050 VCT EN 072/050 072/043 4640 LRD EN 076/054 070/052 2220 75/87 .CRP...NONE. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 341 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2000 MSAS DATA/SUBTRACTION IMAGERY LOOP SHOWING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...EXITING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGIONS WEATHER. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THIS FEATURE HAS EVOLVED SLOWER AND IS STRONGER THAN WHAT THE 17/00Z MODELS SUGGESTED...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO BE BROUGHT INTO THIS SYSTEM. MAIN FOCUS THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE AFFECT THIS SYSTEM HAS ON THE FORECAST AREA. AT 08Z SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE HIGH (NEAR 20 DEGREES). LAPS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MARKED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES TODAY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALL HAVE THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE FORECAST AT 06Z TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z RUC DOES SHOW A MORE CORRECT APPROXIMATION...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION IN THE SHORT TERM. AS SEEN UPSTREAM...EXPECT A LONG PERIOD OF RADAR INDICATED PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS SATURATE. THIS SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL COUPLED JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPS. MID LAYER DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...CONCURRENT WITH UPPER LAYER DIVERGENCE. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE COLUMN AND PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE EVENING AS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SCOUR CLOUDS OUT... AS IS CURRENTLY THE CASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. ENOUGH CLEARING WOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST ENOUGH DRYING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY. THICKNESS INCREASE AS WELL... SUGGESTING A WARMING TREND. THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED BY THE CURRENT FORECAST AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS. COORDINATED WITH DMX/DVN/MPX/MKX/GRB. .LSE...NONE. KRC wi EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 935 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JACKSONVILLE TO BUOY 41010 AND IS MOVING SOUTHWEST. KJAX RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY ...MOVING ONSHORE FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE TO JACKSONVILLE. EXPECT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. 12Z CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS A CAPING INVERSION AROUND 850 MB WITH PWATS AT 1.02 INCHES...SO SHOWERS SHOULD BE LOW TOP THIS AFTERNOON. 13Z RUC MODEL INDICATES NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. MARINE...LATEST 9 AM 41009 BUOY SHOWS ENE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 3.5 FEET. CWF HANDLES INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WELL...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED. .MLB...NONE. AVIATION/FIRE WX...SPRATT PUBLIC/MARINE...BORZILLERI fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1123 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 LTST VIS AND SFC OBS SHOW CICS MVG INTO WRN CWA ATTM. WL FRESHEN AM WORDING FOR UPDATE. LIGHT PRECIP ON KLOT RADAR IN WRN IL. LTST RUC AND ETA HAVE COND PRES DEF OF AT LEAST 50-100MB UNTIL 00Z SO PRECIP WL HOLD OFF THIS AFTN AS MSTR MEETS WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS. TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK GOOD. .IWX...NONE. JLA in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1010 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 ISENT LIFT CLDNS ACRS MOST OF S/W SC AND S/E GA AND OFFSHR WTRS. 850 RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ONE HIGH CENTER JUST OFFSHR SC CST N INTO ANOTHER HIGH CENTERED NR NY. BETWEEN THE TWO IS A 850 FRONT DENOTED BY CONVERGING WIND...AND A TEMP AND THETA E GRAD STRETCHING ACRS NE CWA. CLDNS HAVING A HARD TIME MOVG N OF THIS FEATURE. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MDL DATA. LTST RUC SHIFTS WEAKNESS IN 850 FLOW TO THE SE AND KEEPS MOST MOISTURE GENERALLY WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY...WITH 06Z MESOETA SHIFTING IT MORE TO THE NE...WITH STRONGER SW WIND AND INCR MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVR CWA. SATL TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE RUC. NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS MSTLY CLDY COND TO CONT FOR CENT/S CWA...AND WILL LIKELY KEEP PC WORDING NE CWA. CAA/NE SFC FLOW AND CLD CVR WILL MAKE IT HARD TO REACH FCST MAX...ESP C/S. LTST 12Z FRH T1 TRENDS SUGGEST A HIGH ONLY ABT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORN MIN. WILL HAVE TO LOWER MAXES AT LEAST A CAT. CURRENT OBS AND MDL FCST SUPPORT CONT WORDING OF BREEZY COND. .CAE...NONE. MILLER sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 955 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. FROM SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE ONLY CHANCE OF CLEARING WOULD BE FROM DRY AIR TRYING TO WORK DOWN FROM THE NORTH. BUT LOOKING AT SATELLITE TRENDS THAT DOES NOT SEEM TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME HOLES OR THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME SO WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY. COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS SHOULD HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES. MAY HAVE TO LOWER MAXIMA SOME FOR THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE IT IS STILL ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. CWF...SLIGHT CHANGE TO CURRENT FCST. WILL MOVE NE WIND BECMG E IN SUN PERIOD TO TONIGHT PERIOD. 25 TO 30 KT WINDS CONTINUE AT BOUYS 41004 AND 41008 WITH SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. LATEST RUC...MESOETA... AND 12Z ETA INDICATE SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS LATER TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING E OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN ABOUT DEVELOPING COASTAL TROF. MESOETA DEVELOPS STONG COASTAL TROF WITH OVER 1 IN PRECIP ALONG COAST OVERNIGHT FROM CHS TO SAV. THIS SEEMS SOMEWHAT EXCESSIVE... HOWEVER 12Z ETA ALSO INDICATES A WEAKER TROF WITH MUCH LESS PRECIP... BUT AXIS OF MAX PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. CURRENT MENTION OF PRECIP IN FCST ADEQUATE ATTM. .CHS... SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANNAH OUT 20 NM. GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND OUT 60 NM. /SLB sc COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 730 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2000 UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. BUMPED POPS UP TO 50% FROM CRP-VCT. STILL ANTICIPATE SELY WINDS THIS AFTN AND WARMER TEMPS AS H85 TROF ADVANCES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO OUR NERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. ------------------------------------------------------------- LATEST RUC ANALYSIS OVERLAYED ON WV IMAGERY SHOWS A 100KT JET STREAK APCHG DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ATTM WITH MOISTURE INCREASING INTO THE STATE AHEAD OF IT AS SEEN ON KCRP 88D. AT THE SURFACE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MEANDERING ALONG THE COAST BECOMING VERY SHALLOW AS SELY LOW LVL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE APCHG TROF IN WEST TEXAS. ABV THE SFC BNDRY LYR A STRONG CAP RESIDES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE WRN ZONES DRY TDY UNTIL PSBLY FROPA TNGT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. EXPECT BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER THIS AFTN AS WARM FNT MOVES INLAND AND H85 TROF ADVANCES TO A CRP-SAT LINE...HOWEVER CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLGTLY BELOW MOS PROGS. CAP SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE IN THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTN...EXPECIALLY AS THE LEFT FNT QUAD OF H25 JET INTERACTS WITH THE NWD MOVING SFC BNDRY. ETA/AVN MODELS SHOW THE AMS BECMG MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER THE VCT AREA BY MID AFTN WITH CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. PROVIDED CLOUDS ERODE AND SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE. H5 TEMPS ARE A COOL -16C...HOWEVER DUE TO WEAK SHEAR PROFILE...SVR STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. FOR TNGTS FCST I WILL TRIM POP DOWN A NOTCH AS LASTEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MORE OF A SWLY H85 FLOW OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE UP THE COAST TOWARD HOUSTON. SPC REMOVED TSTMS ALL TOGETHER IN OUR AREA WHICH I THINK IS TOO HARSH...HOWEVER THEIR SLGT RISK AREA LOOKS REASONABLE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT TNGT. STEEP LAPES RATES ALOFT...MOD INSTABILITY AND DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD A GOOD CHC OF STORMS ACROSS THE NERN COUNTIES. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG CAP..DRY ENVIRONMENT I WILL TRIM POPS TO 20% IN THE WEST. HOWEVER COLD AIR ALOFT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED STORMS IN THE WEST. WILL WORD TNGT'S FCST TURNING WINDY AND COOLER AS FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. SCA'S ARE EXPECTED IN ALL MARINE AREAS LATE TNGT PERSISTING SUN. THE GRADIENT DROPS OFF SUN AFTN...THUS TEMPS WILL REBOUND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXTENDED...MRF AND ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG UPR TROF INTO WEST TEXAS MON AFTN AND TUE. EXPECT A QUICK RETURN FLOW MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WAA SHOWERS ON TUE AND WED. PRELIMS FOLLOW... CRP EN 074/053 072/045 5420 NGP EN 072/055 069/050 VCT EN 072/050 072/043 5640 LRD EN 076/054 070/052 2220 75/87 .CRP...NONE. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 950 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 HI PRESS RIDGE...BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...TO REMAIN OVER NEW ENG THRU 12Z SUN. WK CAA AT H85 TODAY TO BE REPLACED BY WK WAA TONITE. WK H5 S/W TO MOVE NE ACRS THE FA LATER TONITE...BUT IT/LL HAVE NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS UPR LVLS ARE BONE DRY. 12Z RUC SHOWS LT WINDS AND HI TEMPS IN THE L-M20S TODAY...WHICH SEEMS A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY TOUCHING 20 DEG F ATTM. T1MAX TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 30S FOR TODAY. SAT PIX SHOW SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACRS EASTERN ONT AND WESTERN QUE ATTM...BUT THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS SHOULD ERODE WITH TIME AS IT COMES IN CONTACT WITH THE RIDGE THAT/S OVER THE REGION. A FEW WISPS OF HIR CLDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ST LAW VLY TODAY...BUT THAT/S IT. JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS AND WINDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS TRENDS. A FEW MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO SECOND PERIOD AS WELL. WORK ZONES OUT. FINAL ZFP AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST LAMP DATA. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 230 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2000 COMPLICATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVING OVR CNTRL U.S. ATM. H5 LOW IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVR CNTRL KS/NE AS POTENT S/W DROPS S THRU RCKYS INTO BASE OF TROF OVR NRN NM. BAND OF SN THAT MVD THRU ERN IA WRN IL THIS MRNG HAS FALLEN APART E OF RGN WITH PATCHY -SN N AND -RA S RMNG. -SN FALLING IN ILL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZN OVR SERN MN NW IA WITH MAIN -RN MIX IN MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF DEF ZONE OVR ERN NE/NE KS. AT THE SFC RDGNG ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES OVR NERN U.S. EXTENDS W INTO NRN IL/NE IA. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THIS MRNGS RUNS TRENDING TOWARD YESTERDAYS SLOWER/STRONGER AVN SOLN. AVN STILL THE ODD MODEL OUT TDA KEEPING THE SYSTEM FURTHER N THAN NGM/ETA ESPCLY AFT 24HRS. BY 18Z TDA AVN SEEMED TO BE DOING A BETTER JOB HANDLING THE ENERGY MVNG THRU NRN NM AND IS SUPPORTED BY WATER VARPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SOLN. ETA/NGM ARE SLOER MVNG THIS ENERGY INTO TROF. BASED ON THIS WILL FAVOR THE AVN SOLN FOR THIS FCST. ALL MODELS SHOW DEF ZONE SHIFTING SE AND SETTING UP FROM ERN KS THRU NW MO ERN IA/NRN IL BY 12Z SUN. SHLD SEE MAINLY SN WITH THIS FEATURE TNGT OVR WRN AND NRN SCTNS OF CWA AND COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES SOME AREAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW AT H850 AHD OF DVLPNG SYS WILL PULL WARM AIR N THRU MS VALLEY TNGT. SO RST OF CWA SHLD SEE RN OR -SN CHNG TO -RN. BEST SHOT OF PCPN WILL COME SUNDAY MRNG AS UPR LOW LIFTS NE INTO CENTRL MO BRINGING IMPRSV VV BULLSEYE INTO CNTRL IL. UPR LOW THEN MVS THUR SRN IL INTO IN BY MON AFTN DECREASING THE THREAT OF RN OVR WRN SCTNS OF CWA BUT ERN SCTNS WILL SEE AN EXTENDED PD OF -RN. SHLD BE ABLE TO END PCPN OVR E BY TUE MRNG AS UPR RDG BLDS IN FRM W. MOS TMPS LKS GD TNGT CLDS/TMPS KPNG DIURNAL CHNG SMALL. HI'S SUNDAY LK A LITTLE TOO AGRESSIVE AND WILL SHADE A LTL. OTRW MOS LKS RSNBL. EXTENDED LOOKS WRM AND DRY AS UPR RDG PARKS OVR MID WEST WITH LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR SW U.S. .DVN... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. DLF il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1137 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF MID CLOUDS OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS WI...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. COMBINATION OF LAKE AND DIURNAL CU/SC SPREADING INTO CENTRAL UPPER IN AXIS OF HIGHER (MID 20S) SURFACE DEW POINTS. PROBLEM FOR THE AFTERNOON REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER...WITH 12Z APX/DTX RAOBS VERY DRY BELOW 600 MB. DIURNAL CLOUDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM TODAY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE TEENS...ONLY WESTERN MACKINAC/ CHIPPEWA COUNTIES MAY SEE A LITTLE SC TODAY. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOWING SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS WI AND WESTERN IL...BUT ONLY LSE REPORTING PRECIPITATION IN WI. WITH MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION (ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SUPPORT FROM FAVORED RRQ OF ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK TO THE NORTHWEST) REMAINING WEST...NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL THIS EVENING. WITH MID LEVELS INITIALLY QUITE DRY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...LEADING EDGE OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY ERODE AS IT PUSHES EAST...BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT MID CLOUD TO OVERSPREAD EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY 06Z MESOETA AND 15Z RUC UPDATE. HAVE REWORDED NORTHEAST LOWER AS JUST MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY... THINKING THAT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO DUSK. AREA RAOBS SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES...MIXING APX SOUNDING OUT TO ONLY 875MB SUPPORTS A HIGH AROUND 40 DEGREES. DID BUMP READINGS UP A BIT FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER WHERE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S. UPDATED ARBZFPAPX WILL BE OUT BY 1645Z. .APX...NONE. JPB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 255 PM MST SAT MAR 18 2000 SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN AND A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER AS OF THIS WRITING FROM SANGRES AND SANDIAS TO EASTCENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DONE WITH BY 900 PM PER LATEST RUC2 AS BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DECREASING NORTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL. WILL NOT REISSUE WIND ADVISORY AS SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE FROM UPPER FLOW SHORTLY AFTER DARK. TOMORROW SHOULD BE NICE AS TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE PROGGED TO SCOOT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA. ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS. A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER SHOULD COMMENCE MONDAY AND CARRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT RE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE...COLD...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IF MODEL PRECIPATION FROM NCEP/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE RUNS AND NOGAPS PAN OUT...THIS MAY BE OUR BEST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN SEVERAL MONTHS. ON A LOCAL NOTE...MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG EAST WINDS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING PERHAPS TILL WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER AIR PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE /ESPECIALLY THE PROGGED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW/. ABQ AN 028/066 038/065 036 38000 SAF AN 020/062 031/062 031 3810- TCC UN 028/065 038/072 039 38200 .ABQ...NONE. nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1110 AM MST SAT MAR 18 2000 COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST QUARTER AND EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES TILL SUNSET. WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -25C...SUFFICIENT CAPES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WINDY AREAWIDE WITH RUC2 SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM ROW AND SRR NW THROUGH ABQ TO FMN. 38 .ABQ...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON NMZ001>003-009>011-015>017-019- 026. GB nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1226 PM EST SAT MAR 18 2000 .UPDATE... UPDATE REQD TO REDUCE WIND...AND REMOVE BREEZY WORDING. SFC PRESS GRAD APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SOME...ESP NE CWA...AND SFC OBS REFLECTING SOME DIMINISHING WIND. .PREV DISC... ISENT LIFT CLDNS ACRS MOST OF S/W SC AND S/E GA AND OFFSHR WTRS. 850 RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ONE HIGH CENTER JUST OFFSHR SC CST N INTO ANOTHER HIGH CENTERED NR NY. BETWEEN THE TWO IS A 850 FRONT DENOTED BY CONVERGING WIND...AND A TEMP AND THETA E GRAD STRETCHING ACRS NE CWA. CLDNS HAVING A HARD TIME MOVG N OF THIS FEATURE. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MDL DATA. LTST RUC SHIFTS WEAKNESS IN 850 FLOW TO THE SE AND KEEPS MOST MOISTURE GENERALLY WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY...WITH 06Z MESOETA SHIFTING IT MORE TO THE NE...WITH STRONGER SW WIND AND INCR MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVR CWA. SATL TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE RUC. NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS MSTLY CLDY COND TO CONT FOR CENT/S CWA...AND WILL LIKELY KEEP PC WORDING NE CWA. CAA/NE SFC FLOW AND CLD CVR WILL MAKE IT HARD TO REACH FCST MAX...ESP C/S. LTST 12Z FRH T1 TRENDS SUGGEST A HIGH ONLY ABT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORN MIN. WILL HAVE TO LOWER MAXES AT LEAST A CAT. CURRENT OBS AND MDL FCST SUPPORT CONT WORDING OF BREEZY COND. .CAE...NONE. MILLER sc