FXUS61 KOKX 040842 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 340 AM EST WED FEB 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... SIGNIFICANT LARGE CLOUD BREAKS ARE OCCURRING ACRS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE L-M30S AND LIGHT WINDS IS ALLOWING FOR BLACK ICE FORMATION...MAINLY ON LI. WE RECEIVED 0.75-1.25" OF RAIN LAST EVENING AND THIS WASHED A LOT OF THE LEFTOVER SALT AND SAND OFF THE ROADWAYS. SO...EXPECT SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL EARLY THIS MORNING. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TIL 10AM TO HANDLE THIS ISSUE. OVERALL...WE'RE LOOKING AT QUIET TIMES FOR THE NEXT 48-54 HOURS OR SO AS HIPRES MOVES OVERHEAD. SOME LOW-MID CLOUDS STILL LURKING OFF TO MY W THIS MORNING EASILY PICKED UP BY THE 11-3.9U CHANNEL. AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN THIS MORNING...A LOT OF THIS SHOULD ERODE...LEAVING US WITH A P/CLOUDY DAY. MAY OPT TO MENTION MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD WORDING FOR THE MORNING HOURS IN THE W AND NW. TEMPS WILL BE THE BIG STORY FOR THE DAY...AS THEY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS OF THE CWA WITH RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT AND A GOOD DOWNPLOPE WIND. SKIES WILL GO M/CLEAR TONIGHT AS SFC HI BUILDS OVERHEAD IN CONJUCTION WITH A DRIER COLUMN ADVECTING IN. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE GOOD WEATHER AND APPROACHING BAD WEATHER. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS THAN TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. OVERALL...NOT A BAD DAY. NEXT STORM OF INTEREST APPROACHES THURS NIGHT. THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE A GOOD QPF PRODUCER AS WELL. INITIALLY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...WE ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD SFC HIPRES. SECONDARY SFC "BAGGINESS" DVLPS OVER THE SRN MID ATLC REGION/CAROLINAS...AND MOVES NWD THU NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWING GFS/EC SOLN WITH THIS STORM...SINCE ETA HAS PROBLEMS 72-84 HRS OUT. ETA DVLPS TONS OF PCPN DUE TO TREMENDOUS ISENT LIFT. PROBLEM IS...ITS 80-100KT 850 WINDS ARE TOO DARNED STRONG. THIS IS HELPING TO OVEREXAGGERATE THE ISENT LIFT AND SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING CYCLOGENESIS AND ASSOCIATED QPF. WL WAIT A FEW MORE RUNS BEFORE BITING ON THE ETA. IN ANY EVENT...THINK PCPN GETS IN HERE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT WITH SOLID WAA ONSET. INITIALY...COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO PROBABLY START THE WHOLE CWA OUT AS SNOW. TREMENDOUS WAA CONTS FRI MORNING...BRINGING H85 TEMPS CLOSE TO +10C FRI AFTN. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO SLEET THEN RAIN AT THE COAST AND IN THE CITY BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN POSSIBLY BEING HEAVY AT TIMES. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT IF PCPN AT ONSET COMES DOWN HEAVY ENUF...WE COULD PICK UP A COUPLE OF INCHES AT THE COAST BEFORE CHANGE TO RAIN. THIS IS A LOW CONF SNOW FCST AS WE ARE STILL SEVERAL PERIODS AWAY FROM ONSET...AND MODEL CHANGES ARE ALMOST CERTAIN TO OCCUR. IN A NUTSHELL...LOOKS MUCH WETTER THAN WHITER AT THE COAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING PROBS ONCE AGAIN. FURTHER INLAND...PCPN WILL START AS SNOW AS WELL. CHANGOVER TO ANOTHER TYPE OF FROZEN OR LIQUID PCPN IS ALMOST CERTAIN AS WELL BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN...A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE...BEFORE CHANGOVER. THINKING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL HANG ON LONGER ACRS WELL-INLAND AREAS...SO SNOW COULD GO TO FZRA. NOT CONFIDENT ON THIS SINCE COLD HI MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY THEN...BUT IF SFC PRES PATTERN REMAINS BAGGY...WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL SCOURING WIND. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. FOR NOW AT INLAND LOCALES...WILL FORECAST SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN CHANGING SLEET...OR MORE LIKELY FZRA BY LATE FRI MORNING. HAVE TO THINK THAT WARM PUSH FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET TEMPS WELL ABV FREEZING EVEN IN THESE INLAND AREAS...SO FORECASTED A CHANGE TO RAIN...EVEN THERE. THIS SITN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ALL AREAS SEE AN END TO THE PCPN SAT AM AS LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN FOR THE OCEAN AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR A FAIR PORTION OF THE DAY. THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WILL SLACKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER SHOULD REMAIN 30-40 KTS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWN TO THE WATER WILL BE LESS THAN NORMAL...AS AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE SEA SURFACE...BUT STILL EXPECT 25 KTS TO OCCUR REGULARLY. SEAS ALSO REMAIN VERY HIGH...6-9 FT AS OF 3AM...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THEN...THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...BEFORE STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES... OR POSSIBLY MARGINAL GALES ARE REACHED FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS LURKING FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND...ACROSS THE CITY TO POINTS NORTH AND WEST OF KNYC. HOWEVER...IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS RISE FOR THE CITY TERMINALS...WHICH HAS CORRESPONDED WITH CIGS LIFTING FROM MVFR TO VFR. AS OF 08Z...THE BASE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS HOVERING AROUND 4000 FT IN MOST AREAS. WE SHOULD SEE THIS CONTINUE TO LIFT AS THE ENTIRE AREA STARTS TO ERODE FROM THE EDGES AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. BY 11-12Z...WE SHOULD ONLY SEE FEW-SCT040-050 ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ONLY STRATO-CU WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY TODAY...WITH 15 KT SUSTAINED AND 20-25 KT GUSTS EXPECTED DURING THE PEAK MIXING HOURS (~14Z-20Z). GRADIENT RELAXES...AND WINDS DECREASE SHARPLY TOWARD NIGHTFALL THIS EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY...NEXT EVENT COULD BE A BIG QPF PRODUCER WITH AN OPEN GULF AND ATLC. ATTM...WE ARE LOOKING AT 1-2" OF QP (LOCALLY HIGHER?)...ESP ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...THIS WILL FALL MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING PROBLEMS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. CT...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OCEAN WATERS...ANZ355-353-350. $$ PUBLIC...EKSTER AVN/MARINE...JK