FXUS04 KWBC 041850 PAA QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 248 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION VALID AUG 06/0000 UTC THRU AUG 07/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... TN VLY/OH VLY/NRN MID ATL/SRN NEW ENG... TWO WAVES ALG A FRONTAL ZONE WL INTERACT W/PWS AOA 2 INCHES AND THE BROAD RRQ OF A HEALTHY NRN STREAM JET. DIVERGENCE WL FURTHER BENEFIT FROM A SLIGHT SPLIT IN THE H2 FLOW ACRS THE NRN MID ATL/NEW ENG. GENERALLY WENT W/A FASTER AND SLIGHTLY FLATTER ETA SOLN ON THE WHOLE...DISCOUNTED THE GFS CONVECTIVE BULLS EYE THAT FORMS IN THE LWR OH VLY AND PROPAGATES EWD THRU NC...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE WNWLY NATURE OF THE FLOW PATTERN AND THE DECREASING PWS W/TIME DESPITE THE SPLIT SEEN IN THE H2 PATTERN...HAVE LEARNED NOT TO BULK ON PCPN IN NWLY FLOW UNLESS THE PWS ARE 2+ INCHES. DID GO W/MDT PCPN AMTS THOUGH...WHICH BRINGS AN INCH OF PCPN TO KY AND TN. FL... WLY FLOW ACRS THE PENINSULA WL FAVOR AM ACTIVITY ALG THE WEST COAST SPREADING EWD ACRS THE STATE...A FAMILIAR PATTERN OVR THE PAST FEW WEEKS..DESPITE ITS UNCLIMATOLOGICAL LOOK. CO/NM/SOUTHWEST/NAME... UPSLOPE FLOW IN CO...RELATIVELY HIGH PWS FOR THE AREA...AND DISTURBANCES RIDING THE SWLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTION ACRS THE REGION. DISBELIEVE THE VERY HIGH AMTS OF THE GFS...WENT CLOSER TO THE ETA HERE. IT IS PSBL MORE PCPN COULD MOVE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE FROM THE WEST...BUT HELD BACK FOR THE TIME BEING. NORTHWEST/NRN CONTDVD... A PACIFIC FRONTAL ZONE PUSHES THRU THE SCENE THIS PD. INTERESTINGLY...THE BEST H8 INFLOW APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED INTO THE NRN CONTDVD...AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO GET GOING IN THE PAC NW...HENCE FOCUSED THE HIGHEST AMTS THERE W/LESSER AMTS IN THE CASCADES. WENT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE GFS HERE. DAY 2... DEEP TROF WILL BE ALONG E COAST THIS PD...WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NM. GOODLY SLUG OF S/W ENERGY WILL LIFT THRU THE PAC NW. CENTRAL ATL SEABOARD... WAVE ALONG POLAR FRONT PUSHING THRU REGION EARLY DAY 2 WILL WRING OUT 1-2 INCHES OVER ERN NC...WITH 0.50-1.00" OVER EXTREME SERN VA. NRN GULF COAST... FRONT SAGGING THRU AREA WILL GENERATE QUARTER INCH AMTS OR LESS MOST AREAS AS IT PASSES. FL PENINSULA... MOIST SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF POLAR BOUNDARY WILL FUEL GENERAL AMTS AROUND A QUARTER INCH. CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... S/WS ROTATING AROUND UPPER HIGH WILL GENERATE RAINFALL AMTS ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS MOST AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS E OF THE MOUNTAINS. BELIEVE MODELS ARE OVERDONE ON STRENGTH OF S/WS AND SUBSEQUENT QPF. SRN TIER 1/NAME... DISTURBANCES IN TROPICAL EASTERLIES WILL WRING OUT ABOUT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE EXTREME SERN PORTION OF THE AREA. PAC NW... S/W ENERGY LIFTING THRU REGION COULD PRODUCE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND NRN CASCADES. BELIEVE ETA IS SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE ON AMTS IN REGIONS...SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF GFS AND ETA. ROTH/CISCO GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 06/00Z 0.01 224066 236070 245075 257082 269087 281092 291097 302107 312117 317121 321120 323118 327113 329111 331112 350133 363138 370139 374139 378137 390130 396126 403121 407118 411112 414106 416100 418089 420083 420077 420071 419065 417056 413039 411032 408026 406020 404018 397016 389014 382012 374011 366012 359012 351014 346014 344012 341005 338997 336993 332992 329994 328998 325004 321015 315031 311046 309052 307057 304063 300068 295072 287073 278073 272071 260066 256062 254057 248043 241032 236025 230020 0.01 555134 538101 534097 532092 527081 521072 514063 506049 502045 501045 497045 495049 490057 488065 490073 492077 496081 500086 502090 508095 509100 508104 502109 495113 481121 478122 476120 475116 473111 470103 467094 467089 468085 471082 472077 473071 472065 471056 469052 463044 452029 448022 444014 439008 434002 431999 427997 422996 419998 415001 413007 412011 412018 422031 430044 439062 447084 448094 447107 447119 450128 454138 456141 459143 463140 466139 466145 464155 473169 478176 481185 480190 479191 473193 465193 459201 456200 454197 451197 448200 444204 441206 437207 431212 426217 421224 420229 423232 432232 441230 448227 455225 464226 467226 470224 479222 487223 493224 497227 499228 502224 506222 510225 515230 522236 527238 529237 0.01 514281 514276 518268 519263 518258 515251 511246 505240 494232 488229 480227 474229 472231 472237 472242 468245 465248 465253 468261 471267 475273 482284 485290 489295 495300 503304 506304 0.01 452650 448644 444639 441637 439639 434645 416665 406677 397686 392693 387700 384705 380710 372720 364729 349746 341757 337762 335768 326791 317811 314814 311811 303805 292798 285790 280787 276786 270786 263788 251793 247798 246802 249816 253827 255839 257848 260855 264858 267857 270860 276870 280873 283869 287859 291851 297843 301840 304840 302843 298854 293880 291903 289923 288933 289935 294950 302979 304983 306985 308985 318981 321969 324969 325972 328978 331974 334968 336962 340951 342949 345955 348962 351959 355949 360938 362930 372905 374898 376893 379885 382880 395861 413846 418833 423820 424811 426804 426797 428789 430762 430750 430742 431735 433730 436721 440707 448677 450665 452655 452650 0.01 462182 463178 463174 463173 462174 460175 457176 454174 452172 451169 451171 451175 451176 451180 450181 449183 447186 446187 447187 449188 450188 453186 455187 458185 459185 462182 462182 0.25 226058 229059 232060 233060 234060 237061 240060 241060 242059 243057 242054 241051 239049 239048 237046 236045 234043 234042 232040 231039 229037 228036 0.25 536186 537174 534166 525149 521143 515136 511134 508134 504136 501141 501153 499158 496161 491165 489167 487174 488183 490190 487197 484201 481206 482209 486213 490214 497213 504211 512210 527208 531204 534190 536186 0.25 501266 501265 498262 498260 496258 494254 493253 491252 488251 487251 485255 487260 489265 490266 492267 494270 497270 499269 501266 501266 0.25 442668 439662 437662 432664 428667 415682 404701 400710 397720 394730 390737 383740 376740 370741 364744 359747 355751 349760 345768 339783 337790 336798 337802 338805 342807 346809 349808 352806 356801 360795 366788 371782 382769 385767 386771 387783 385794 383799 381803 376810 374813 372814 369814 364811 359813 356815 353819 350823 347833 346838 349840 351839 358830 363824 366821 368819 369821 363835 355853 347870 344879 342887 338903 336914 336919 337922 342917 344914 347914 351916 353917 355915 356911 358903 361894 364887 374872 383853 388847 394841 399835 405827 410817 413808 416798 419786 421778 422767 424749 425736 427725 429715 433704 439687 441676 442668 0.25 444040 442036 441034 438034 437036 438039 439040 441042 444040 0.25 402061 403056 401051 399046 397038 392032 387031 380030 371031 363031 337025 334030 332035 328042 326048 324055 323062 323067 324071 327078 332088 335093 341097 344097 347096 351093 352089 355086 361082 365082 369086 372091 372094 369097 365099 360103 360107 363111 366111 374108 379107 382105 386100 392089 398075 402061 0.25 336881 333870 331868 328868 322871 316876 312882 310888 308896 305910 303916 303923 305928 308936 313940 316942 321942 325937 327931 330924 331917 333899 334893 335884 336881 0.25 289812 287806 283802 275798 270797 263797 255800 252806 253811 257822 263836 265842 269846 275842 279839 286830 288820 289812 0.25 324098 323095 321091 319088 319087 316085 316084 313082 311085 310088 310091 311094 311098 311101 312104 312105 315106 317104 318103 320101 321100 324098 0.50 515185 515183 513180 512180 511180 509180 507183 506186 505188 505191 506192 508194 511195 512194 513189 515186 515185 0.50 505197 505193 502193 499195 499196 496198 495199 492201 491202 492206 495206 498206 500205 501204 503201 504198 505197 0.50 437681 437676 435672 431671 425675 422679 418684 414690 407704 402713 399724 396736 393750 392762 392774 392780 390788 386800 382810 377818 373824 370829 364841 357860 352872 350878 350883 347896 347899 351902 354902 356899 358893 362883 372864 379852 383842 396825 402814 408801 413792 417781 419765 421751 422740 423728 423722 425713 431700 435692 437681 0.50 381754 380749 378747 374747 369749 364751 360752 356755 352761 350766 347774 346780 350782 359780 366775 371771 377764 380758 381754 0.50 392053 394045 391039 385037 377037 366036 360036 352036 345036 340038 339042 341045 344048 348052 349061 353064 358066 364068 369071 373073 377074 381072 387063 390059 392053 0.50 318920 317917 316916 316917 314918 314924 315928 317921 318920 0.50 281806 276802 270801 264800 259802 257806 259815 261823 264829 268837 271838 275836 280832 282829 281825 280821 281816 281809 281806 1.00 432685 429682 429678 425682 421689 414699 412700 409705 406712 403722 400737 398748 397764 395776 392789 390801 389808 390812 397812 401807 403801 406794 411784 414770 417758 419743 420730 420712 421707 424702 431691 432685 1.00 374842 372837 370840 368845 366849 364854 363860 363864 363868 365868 367864 369860 371855 373851 374846 374842 1.00 369047 368043 366043 363043 362044 361047 364049 366048 369047 1.50 418705 414705 411708 407717 404725 402735 400755 401763 401769 399773 396781 395790 395799 396805 398804 401797 403793 406788 408780 409770 415752 416744 417733 417714 418705 2.00 415724 414716 411715 409718 407722 406727 404732 403738 402744 402749 402753 404758 407759 410757 412752 414746 415742 415736 416728 415724 3.00 411731 410730 408732 407733 407738 407739 408742 408743 410740 411735 411732 411731 24HR QP VT 07/00Z 0.01 477677 475673 473672 467673 461680 458684 453692 450698 443709 439716 436722 434728 433734 433742 436750 437751 441751 444748 447744 451731 456718 457711 460705 466700 472694 476688 477682 477677 0.01 536186 538176 539163 539151 537142 536135 533128 528115 521102 513091 511084 509077 506072 502068 492061 487059 480058 476060 473062 471066 468077 464083 462090 460098 461107 463114 466119 469123 475128 479129 485134 489137 494144 492147 488147 483147 478149 473154 472159 475165 478170 484174 489177 491183 491189 487196 479200 468205 461213 450217 440220 436224 432232 435238 441242 441248 443255 445259 452264 461267 473268 483265 487263 492259 497255 500250 503243 505234 508217 512210 516205 519201 524200 528199 532195 536186 0.01 519001 518991 517984 514977 510972 507970 499968 489969 479972 473974 466975 452960 442955 439954 432955 429958 426964 426972 429980 440999 443004 446011 448017 452022 456025 460026 471025 483022 496022 502022 506021 509019 513015 516010 519001 0.01 437771 434762 431757 426755 419757 413762 408766 401777 395789 394795 394802 396806 399807 404807 410807 413809 417810 421808 425803 432791 435786 436780 437771 0.01 464174 465170 464165 461163 457164 452167 449171 447175 445179 442186 441194 442198 445201 448200 451197 454193 455189 459182 462178 464174 0.01 385747 385742 383736 377730 370726 362726 355731 351736 338749 317773 315775 313774 312767 308759 303754 298750 291749 285750 278754 255774 251779 247785 245791 243799 244812 243827 245843 248853 253859 257862 263866 268866 273866 277865 284861 287864 287869 287887 287902 288920 289929 290940 291951 292956 295962 300965 304965 307962 309956 311948 316933 317924 315912 315894 314887 314877 315862 318845 321833 328817 331812 337806 354798 357796 361792 367787 375775 379768 383760 385753 385747 0.01 418990 417984 415979 412975 405974 385980 374985 366990 353005 347011 343014 337017 331018 326015 322012 317006 313004 308003 305005 303010 301020 299031 304040 318051 323059 325063 325071 324076 322082 323088 324092 327097 330101 337108 343114 349120 353123 360122 363120 367115 372108 375104 380101 387097 395090 402085 406080 408076 410069 410064 410056 408050 403023 409015 415007 418998 418990 0.01 225063 234074 243083 255092 261096 269098 273099 280096 285090 286084 285080 284077 278072 266065 259062 253058 245048 240041 236037 233034 228031 0.25 498213 500209 501205 498201 495202 493203 492203 489204 486205 486206 483207 480208 479208 479212 479213 482214 485216 487217 490217 493217 497214 498213 0.25 485246 484241 484240 481238 479236 476236 473237 472239 472241 474245 477247 480248 483248 485246 0.25 378747 377743 375738 372735 367733 361734 354739 351743 343754 338764 332775 331780 331787 336791 341793 346793 352789 361780 368771 374761 377755 378747 378747 0.25 402996 404992 401990 398990 395991 392992 389992 386993 384994 382995 381996 378998 377000 377003 379005 382006 384006 387006 390005 393004 396003 399002 400000 401998 402996 0.25 384079 385076 386072 385068 384065 384064 381062 379061 378060 375060 373061 372061 371065 372068 372069 373072 374075 375079 375081 376083 378085 381084 382083 384080 384079 0.25 363029 363026 360023 354023 348024 342027 335031 331035 329042 332045 341045 346043 352041 358037 361034 363030 363029 0.25 291802 291796 289790 286787 282786 278788 274792 271797 267790 265787 262785 257787 253794 251801 252806 255810 258811 263810 266809 266814 264821 264829 265834 267838 269840 273841 279839 284834 287827 288819 290811 291803 291802 0.25 304867 304863 302859 298858 299861 298866 296876 296889