AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 250 PM PST SUN FEB 29 2004 .DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ONSHORE AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. FRONT ON SATELLITE APPEARS RESPECTABLE...AND QPF PROBABLY WILL BE A LITTLE MORE THAN NCEP PROGS INDICATE TONIGHT. RUC IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE TREND. WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 4K...ONLY SNOW WORRY WILL BE TRINITY COUNTY...AND SINCE BULK OF QPF WILL BE ON WEST SIDE...WILL KEEP AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MON AS UPPER FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUE AS E PACIFIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND NW FLOW REGIME SETS UP OVER THE REGION. MODELS OK THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN 12Z GFS DIVERGES ON THU WITH PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST HAVE BOOSTED POPS ON THU TO INDICATE CHCE PRECIP. FALLING H8 TEMPS ON THU SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT. NW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SYSTEMS PASSING TO NORTH...SO HAVE SPLIT CWA WITH CHCE NORTH SLT CHCE SOUTH FOR THE EXTENDED. && .SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...REACHING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY...WILL GIVE WAY AS THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE EAST PACIFIC HIGH WILL THEN REBUILD TOWARD THE AREA BY TUESDAY...BEFORE A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY...BUT WILL GIVE WAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...PT. ST. GEORGE TO PT. ARENA OUT TO 60 NM && $$ ROSE SYNOPSIS:KK ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 329 AM MST SUN FEB 29 2004 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE SLOW MOVING LOW OVER COLORADO AND THE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED H5-H4 LOW SPINNING OVER WRN CO WITH POCKETS OF "DRY" SLOTS ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW. FIRST NEARBY LINEAR MCS WAS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OF TX/OK WITH THE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER SERN CO AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER EXTREME SERN CO. WIDE RANGE OF SFC DEW POINTS WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S NR CO/KS BORDER...20S AROUND PALMER DIVIDE AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MTS...HIGH VALLEYS...AND SRN FOOTHILLS. SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADARS SHOWING 2 AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. ONE THE DECAYING MCS NEAR SERN CO AND TWO A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG THE NERN CO FRONT RANGE INTO NRN TELLER/NRN EL PASO COUNTIES. THIS LINED UP WELL WITH THE 06/29 ETA'S(MESO-ETA'S) H7-H6 AND H6-H5 FRONTOGENETICAL IMPLIED ASCENT WITH A WEAK TROWAL FEATURE ALSO NOTED. TODAY...INTERESTING HOW THE MODELS NOW WANT TO "JUMP" THE H5 LOW TO EXTREME SERN CO BY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTITUDES OF "DRY" SLOTS ARE ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW. HOWEVER...MID LAPSE RATES ARE STILL MODERATELY UNSTABLE(7 C/KM) AND ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...SO SHOULD SEE THE LOW FILL IN WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...JUST LIKE YESTERDAY. SERN CO WILL HAVE THE LOWEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE MINI INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. 06Z/29 MESO-ETA SHOWING THE H7- H6 TROWAL AND FRONTOGENETICAL IMPLIED ASCENT OVER TELLER/EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IT WEAKENS...BUT BY THEN THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE. AREAS HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...TELLER...AND NRN EL PASO COUNTIES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. WILL STICK WITH GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES IN THE MTS AND ROUGHLY 1-5 INCHES IN NRN EL PASO CO. AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS A LITTLE AND MOVES EWD INTO ERN CO/WRN KS...W-NWLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS. H7 WINDS PROGGED TO BE 35-45KTS IN ERN CO...SO THESE POTENTIAL GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PALMER DIVIDE. WITH 1-5 INCHES...WINDY-VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW/FOG...WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NRN EL PASO CO FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. TONIGHT...WELL VERTICALLY STACK LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AWAY FROM CO...SHOULD STILL SEE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING AND THEN TAPERING OFF DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE SAWATCH/MOSQUITO MT RANGES WHERE A FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION GOING. SFC WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... EXCEPT FOR MAYBE FAR SERN CO. STILL POTENTIAL FOR 35-45KT GUSTS IN SERN CO WITH 45-55KTS OF WIND AT H7-H75 IN THE EVENING. [METZE] .LONG TERM... (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY LEAVING FCST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIPPLING THROUGH FLOW ALOFT TO WARRANT KEEPING SOME ISOLATED MAINLY MTN POPS DURING THE DAY. SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DECENT MIXING...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM ON SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY...THEN FLOW GOES AROUND TO AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE WARMED UP GRIDS A TOUCH ACROSS SE PLAINS...THOUGH KEPT IT A LITTLE COOLER THAN WARMEST MET GUIDANCE. MON NIGHT/TUES...MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DIGGING NEXT TROF CURRENTLY OFF THE NW COAST INTO NV/SRN CA BY 12Z TUES. AS IT DOES... MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MTNS IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS AREA. ETA SHOWS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...AND STRENGTHENING INTO TUES. LOW LVLS LOOK PRETTY DRY MON NIGHT STILL...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER BY TUESDAY... MOISTURE LAYER THICKENS AND ISOLATED POPS ACROSS SE PLAINS LOOK GOOD. COULD BE SOME HEALTHY SNOW AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHWEST MTNS ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. TUES NIGHT/WED NIGHT UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS AZ AND SRN NM BEFORE 06Z GFS LIFTS IT NE INTO TX PANHANDLE BY 12Z THURS. LATEST ECMWF LOOKS A TOUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN GFS. AND LATEST MODEL RUNS ALL LOOK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCES WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY SPREADING ACROSS SE PLAINS TUES NIGHT. HAVE WARMED UP LOWS THIS AREA TUES NIGHT GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND WAA. GFS STRENGTHENS SFC LOW ACROSS CEN CO ON WED... WHICH LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH GIVEN UPPER LOW POSITION ACROSS SRN/CEN NM. THIS MAY ALLOW COLD FRONT TO COME IN SOONER THAN GFS DEPICTS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN EARLIER ONSET OF PCPN. GRIDS HAVE CHANCE TYPE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...LOOKS GOOD. LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...COULD BE SOME HEALTHY ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ALL WILL HINGE ON TRACK OF UPPER LOW. SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO CO FOR THURSDAY/THURS NIGHT. AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NRN CO ON SATURDAY. GRIDS KEEP GENERALLY ISOLATED POPS GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND DIDN'T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THESE FORECAST PERIOD. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ZONE 084...NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY... UNTIL 5PM MST THIS AFTERNOON. && $$ co WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 830 PM EST SUN FEB 29 2004 .DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...JUST A LITTLE WARMER AND A LITTLE MORE HUMID. AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST OFF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH 00Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATING SOUTHEAST FLOW UP THROUGH ABOUT 10000 FEET. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ONCE AGAIN. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO EVENING UPDATE PLANNED. && .MARINE...WINDS ARE KIND OF VARIABLE OVER COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...BUT IN GENERAL ARE ANYWHERE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. LATEST RUC...AS WELL AS PREVIOUS MODELS...INDICATE THAT WINDS SHOULD BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR EVENING UPDATE. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. $$ PRC fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 230 PM EST SUN FEB 29 2004 .CURRENTLY...MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS REGION MARRED ONLY BY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING OVER RIDGE. TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 70...DEW POINTS FROM MID 40S SE ALA TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST. WINDS GENERALLY SE 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ABOVE 20 MPH ACROSS PANHANDLE. && .DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS. AT UPPER LEVELS DOMINANT RIDGE OVER ERN CONUS WITH AXIS OVERHEAD...AND EQUALLY DEEP TROF OVR WRN CONUS. INTENSE SHORT WAVE...LO AND STRONG MID/UPR JET MAX ACROSS SRN PLAINS MOVG NE TOWARD LWR MISS VALLEY. LO TO FILL AS IT MOVES NEWD. AT SURFACE HI ALONG S CAROLINA COAST TO MOVE ESE INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND THEN TO VICINITY OF BERMUDA LATE TOMORROW. ASSOCD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WWD BACK ACROSS LOCAL AREA. RISING HEIGHTS AND DRY LOCAL SOUNDINGS (0.36 PWAT) ATTEST TO CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WINTER WX...ESPECIALLY NOTED BY WARM TEMPS MENTIONED ABOVE. LO ACROSS SRN PLAINS WITH ASSOCD COLD FRONT BEING DRAGGED SEWD. THE COMBO OF HI MOVG IN ATLC AND APPROACHING LO SYS YIELDING LOCALLY VEERING WINDS AND TIGHTENING GRADIENTS ACCOUNTING FOR BREEZY AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. SRN SECTIONS OF UPR RIDGE WILL ONLY SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD NEXT 48 HRS WITH CONT RISING HEIGHTS. NO POPS (SILENT TENS) FORECASTED SHORT TERM WITH CONT MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS FROM MID-UPR 40S INLAND BIG BEND TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW EDGES UP TO LOW-MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES WITH CONT VEERING WINDS...LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S AND HIGHS MID-UPR 70S..POSSIBLY REACHING 80 IN A FEW SPOTS EAST OF APALACH RIVER. ONLY CONCERN IS POSSIBLY OF COASTAL FOG WITH MOIST SLY WINDS RIDING OVER COOLER GULF WATERS TONIGHT. MODELS DO NOT PICK UP ON THIS BUT MAY BE WORTH MONITORING THIS EVENING IN CASE FOG NEEDS TO BE ADDED TO COASTAL ZONE OR NEARSHORE WATERS. ABOVE LO TO MOVE FORM MID PLAINS TO UPR MISS VALLEY TONIGHT AND TO SE CANADA BY TUESDAY. ALTHO NRN EXTENT OF RIDGE FLATTENED...SRN SECTION REMAINS INTACT. COLD FRONT TO REACH NCNTRL AL-GA BEFORE ABRUPTLY BANGING INTO NOSE OF RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP FRONT FROM ANY FURTHER SWD MOVEMENT..IN FACT NOSING RIDGE WNW MAY ACTUALLY SHUNT IT BACK NWD. SOME ASSOCD LEADING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH NW QUARTER OF CWFA MON-TUE. OTHERWISE...CONT WARM TEMPERATURES IN MID 70S TO AROUND 80 RANGE THRU AT LEAST MID WORK WEEK. NEXT FRONT HAS GOOD CHANCE OF MAKING IT TO OUR AREA EARLY WEEKEND. STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES EWD FROM PACIF CONUS WITH STRONG GRADIENT ESTABLISHED BETWEEN HI OVR ATLC AND STRONG LOW GREAT LAKES AREA...GOOD PUSH FOR SWD MOVEMENT OF FRONT TO ARRIVE NW CWFA LATE ON FRI AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS EARLY SAT. WITH STRONG GRADIENT AND H85 JET...BREEZY/GUSTY CONDS AHEAD OF FRONT ON THURS. THIS ADDRESSED IN EXTENDED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN CHANCE SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS ON FRIDAY. && .MARINE...MID-AFTERNOON BUOYS SHOW OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH 5-6 FOOT SEAS. THIS MESHES WELL WITH EXTENDED FORECAST AND INHERITED SCEC. MOBILE BUOY 23 KNOTS WITH 9 FOOT SEAS...SOME OF THIS MAY TRANSLATE EWD (ESPECIALLY SEAS) AND WRN WATERS MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TOMORROW. && FIRE WX...RED FLAG CONTS UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING AND NO WARNINGS/WATCHES ANTICIPATED FOR TOMORROW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 47 75 52 78/ 00 05 10 05 PFN 54 72 56 76/ 00 10 10 10 DHN 52 74 56 76/ 00 20 20 20 ABY 48 75 54 78/ 00 10 20 20 VLD 50 77 54 80/ 00 05 10 05 CTY 49 79 53 80/ 00 05 05 05 && .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL SUNSET FOR FLZ09>11-13-16>19-26>29-34. && $$ BLOCK ______________________________________________________________ .PREV. DISCUSSION... 955 AM EST SUN FEB 29 2004 SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S AND WINDS EAST AROUND 10. ZONES ARE ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. RH VALUES ARE STILL 50 PERCENT OR ABOVE. AS AFTN TEMPS CONT TO RISE EXPCT THESE TO FALL DRAMATICALLY TO VERIFY RFW. OFF SHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE SCEC RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 6 FEET...SO WILL KEEP SCEC ON UPDATE. .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING 11 AM TO SUNSET FOR FLZ09>11-13-16>19-26>29-34. && $$ AFD/16 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS ******************************************************** UPDATED FIRE WEATHER SECTION. .SYNOPSIS...LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF US EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NWD TO THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. OUT W, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER UT AND CO. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC RIDGING SWD INTO FL AND MUCH OF THE ERN GULF. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WRN LOW WILL SWING OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK NE TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY DAY'S END MON BEFORE MOVING INTO SERN CANADA ON TUE. THIS LOW WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH OVER FL (>=588 DM). THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE E INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND THEN SET UP SHOP JUST S OF BERMUDA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS N FL. THE STRENGTH OF THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM REACHING THIS FAR SE. ITS CLOSEST APPROACH APPEARS TO BE NRN AL AND GA ON TUE. POPS WILL BE LOW MON THROUGH TUE RANGING FROM 20 NW TO LESS THAN 10 SE. IN ADDITION TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY GIVING US OUR FIRST FULL WEEK OF SPRING LIKE WEATHER JUST IN TIME FOR THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING (MAR 1). .LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS IS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON FRI AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM. IN FACT, WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK LATER IN THE WEEK AT TLH (MOST LIKELY WED AND/OR THU). THE LAST TIME WE HIT 80 WAS NOV 18TH. && .MARINE...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN CURRENT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IF WINDS INCREASE ANY HIGHER BEFORE PRESS TIME, WE MAY NEED TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY. AFTER E WINDS TODAY, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SELY WINDS WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. PLAN TO ADJUST WINDS OVER THE WATERS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT, BUT WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .FIRE WEATHER...RECENTLY POPULATED RH GRIDS SHOW 1-2 HOUR DURATIONS AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARNED AREA. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S, SO THE WARNING WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE. WHILE DISPERSION WILL ALSO BE HIGH IN THE ERN PANHANDLE, RH CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET THERE. UPDATE...DRY ADVECTION HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE RH ACTUALLY DIPPED DOWN TO 35 PERCENT AT TLH BRIEFLY AT 4 AM. AFTER LOOKING AT SOME RUC AND WS ETA FORECASTS...FIRE WEATHER FORECASTER HAS DECIDED TO EXTEND THE RED FLAG WARNING WWD TO INCLUDE HOLMES...WASHINGTON...JACKSON...CALHOUN AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. WE MAY ACTUALLY MEET CRITERIA BASED SOLELY ON RH DURATIONS IN THE BIG BEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 73 46 75 52 / 00 00 05 05 PFN 69 54 70 56 / 00 05 10 10 DHN 71 51 74 55 / 00 05 20 20 ABY 71 48 75 53 / 00 05 10 20 VLD 74 49 76 53 / 00 00 05 10 CTY 75 47 78 53 / 00 00 05 05 && .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING 11 AM TO SUNSET FOR FLZ09>11-13-16>19-26>29-34. && $$ WOOL/18 fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 955 AM EST SUN FEB 29 2004 SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S AND WINDS EAST AROUND 10. ZONES ARE ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. RH VALUES ARE STILL 50 PERCENT OR ABOVE. AS AFTN TEMPS CONT TO RISE EXPCT THESE TO FALL DRAMATICALLY TO VERIFY RFW. OFF SHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE SCEC RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 6 FEET...SO WILL KEEP SCEC ON UPDATE. .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING 11 AM TO SUNSET FOR FLZ09>11-13-16>19-26>29-34. && $$ AFD/16 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS ******************************************************** UPDATED FIRE WEATHER SECTION. .SYNOPSIS...LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF US EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NWD TO THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. OUT W, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER UT AND CO. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC RIDGING SWD INTO FL AND MUCH OF THE ERN GULF. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WRN LOW WILL SWING OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK NE TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY DAY'S END MON BEFORE MOVING INTO SERN CANADA ON TUE. THIS LOW WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH OVER FL (>=588 DM). THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE E INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND THEN SET UP SHOP JUST S OF BERMUDA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS N FL. THE STRENGTH OF THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM REACHING THIS FAR SE. ITS CLOSEST APPROACH APPEARS TO BE NRN AL AND GA ON TUE. POPS WILL BE LOW MON THROUGH TUE RANGING FROM 20 NW TO LESS THAN 10 SE. IN ADDITION TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY GIVING US OUR FIRST FULL WEEK OF SPRING LIKE WEATHER JUST IN TIME FOR THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING (MAR 1). .LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS IS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON FRI AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM. IN FACT, WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK LATER IN THE WEEK AT TLH (MOST LIKELY WED AND/OR THU). THE LAST TIME WE HIT 80 WAS NOV 18TH. && .MARINE...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN CURRENT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IF WINDS INCREASE ANY HIGHER BEFORE PRESS TIME, WE MAY NEED TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY. AFTER E WINDS TODAY, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SELY WINDS WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. PLAN TO ADJUST WINDS OVER THE WATERS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT, BUT WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .FIRE WEATHER...RECENTLY POPULATED RH GRIDS SHOW 1-2 HOUR DURATIONS AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARNED AREA. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S, SO THE WARNING WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE. WHILE DISPERSION WILL ALSO BE HIGH IN THE ERN PANHANDLE, RH CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET THERE. UPDATE...DRY ADVECTION HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE RH ACTUALLY DIPPED DOWN TO 35 PERCENT AT TLH BRIEFLY AT 4 AM. AFTER LOOKING AT SOME RUC AND WS ETA FORECASTS...FIRE WEATHER FORECASTER HAS DECIDED TO EXTEND THE RED FLAG WARNING WWD TO INCLUDE HOLMES...WASHINGTON...JACKSON...CALHOUN AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. WE MAY ACTUALLY MEET CRITERIA BASED SOLELY ON RH DURATIONS IN THE BIG BEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 73 46 75 52 / 00 00 05 05 PFN 69 54 70 56 / 00 05 10 10 DHN 71 51 74 55 / 00 05 20 20 ABY 71 48 75 53 / 00 05 10 20 VLD 74 49 76 53 / 00 00 05 10 CTY 75 47 78 53 / 00 00 05 05 && .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING 11 AM TO SUNSET FOR FLZ09>11-13-16>19-26>29-34. && $$ WOOL/18 fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 803 PM MST SUN FEB 29 2004 .DISCUSSION... DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO CWFA FROM NORTHEAST...WITH DIMINISHING RETURNS ON RADAR ACCELERATING IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. HOWEVER... LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD STILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS OCCURRING AT THE OFFICE AND IN EASTERN COLORADO. ASOS VISIBILITIES STILL AT 1/2SM...PROBABLY LOWER BASED ON WHAT HUMAN EYES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SEE. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WEST OF A CULBERTSON NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY KANSAS TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS NORTHWEST WINDS KICK UP WHAT LITTLE SNOW THERE WILL BE IN THE EAST AND WITH FREEZING OF ELEVATED AND EXPOSED SURFACES. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL LIQUID PRECIP REPORTS APPROACHING 3/4 INCH FROM CO-OP OBSERVERS. ENTWISTLE && .PREV DISCUSSION... 311 PM MST SUN FEB 29 2004 LAST MINUTE CHANGES DUE TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER. PLEASE SEE HIGHLIGHT SECTION BELOW FOR CHANGES TO WINTER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. AT 19Z THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG JET ROUNDING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. PROFILER DATA SHOWING A CENTER NEAR NW KANSAS. METARS/RADAR DETECTING SNOW OVER COLORADO ZONES AND RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE. PREFER THE ETA POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AT 18Z TODAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ETA. BY 12Z THE 700MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR LINCOLN NEBRASKA. OMEGA LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE WARNING AREA WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. PROBLEM AREA IS WHETHER RED WILLOW COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS THERE APPEAR TO BE IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. FOR THE SAFE SIDE...WILL EXTEND CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA THERE AND ONE COUNTY SOUTH INTO DECATUR COUNTY. AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MAIN QUESTIONS ARE WHEN WILL AREAS CURRENTLY GETTING RAIN CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. THE RUC/MESOETA 850MB WINDS/TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THESE AREAS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z MONDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER A BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT OVER THE CURRENT WARNING AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE AROUND 03Z MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES IN THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ALSO LATEST SWOMCD PRODUCT INDICATES HIGH POSSIBLITY OF BLIZZARD CONDTIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. SO WILL MAKE A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR EASTERN COLORADO ZONES EXCEPT CHEYENNE COUNTY INCLUDING DUNDY NEB AND CHEYENNE KS/SHERMAN KS. WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN DECREASE TO BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON WIND SPEEDS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT (00Z-18Z MONDAY) THROUGH 1100 AM MONDAY. RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WIND. SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY/NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LOW. COORDINATED WITH BOU...LBF...DDC ON WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. NOTE TO THE MID SHIFT...LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY FROM 12Z TO 18Z FOR AREAS WHERE A WINTER HIGHLIGHT HAS EXPIRED. DAYS 4-7...FEW CHANGES OTHER THAN TO ADD ANOTHER DAY. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON DAY 7. DUE TO QUESTIONABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS ON DAY 4 LOOKS TOO FAR SOUTH TO GIVE US MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT QUESTIONABLE AGAIN SO WILL KEEP JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. FS && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KS...BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH 6 AM MST (7 AM CST) FOR CHEYENNE... SHERMAN...WALLACE...GREELEY...WICHITA... LOGAN...THOMAS AND RAWLINS COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM CST FOR DECATUR... NORTON...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...GOVE COUNTY. .NE...BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH 6 AM MST (7 AM CST) FOR DUNDY... HITCHCOCK COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST FOR RED WILLOW COUNTY. .CO...BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH 6 AM MST FOR YUMA...KIT CARSON... CHEYENNE COUNTY. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 311 PM MST SUN FEB 29 2004 .DISCUSSION...LAST MINUTE CHANGES DUE TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER. PLEASE SEE HIGHLIGHT SECTION BELOW FOR CHANGES TO WINTER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. AT 19Z THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG JET ROUNDING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. PROFILER DATA SHOWING A CENTER NEAR NW KANSAS. METARS/RADAR DETECTING SNOW OVER COLORADO ZONES AND RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE. PREFER THE ETA POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AT 18Z TODAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ETA. BY 12Z THE 700MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR LINCOLN NEBRASKA. OMEGA LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE WARNING AREA WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. PROBLEM AREA IS WHETHER RED WILLOW COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS THERE APPEAR TO BE IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. FOR THE SAFE SIDE...WILL EXTEND CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA THERE AND ONE COUNTY SOUTH INTO DECATUR COUNTY. AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MAIN QUESTIONS ARE WHEN WILL AREAS CURRENTLY GETTING RAIN CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. THE RUC/MESOETA 850MB WINDS/TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THESE AREAS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z MONDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER A BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT OVER THE CURRENT WARNING AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE AROUND 03Z MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES IN THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ALSO LATEST SWOMCD PRODUCT INDICATES HIGH POSSIBLITY OF BLIZZARD CONDTIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. SO WILL MAKE A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR EASTERN COLORADO ZONES EXCEPT CHEYENNE COUNTY INCLUDING DUNDY NEB AND CHEYENNE KS/SHERMAN KS. WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN DECREASE TO BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON WIND SPEEDS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT (00Z-18Z MONDAY) THROUGH 1100 AM MONDAY. RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WIND. SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY/NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LOW. COORDINATED WITH BOU...LBF...DDC ON WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. NOTE TO THE MID SHIFT...LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY FROM 12Z TO 18Z FOR AREAS WHERE A WINTER HIGHLIGHT HAS EXPIRED. DAYS 4-7...FEW CHANGES OTHER THAN TO ADD ANOTHER DAY. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON DAY 7. DUE TO QUESTIONABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS ON DAY 4 LOOKS TOO FAR SOUTH TO GIVE US MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT QUESTIONABLE AGAIN SO WILL KEEP JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KS...BLIZZARD WARNING TONIGHT FOR CHEYENNE...SHERMAN...WALLACE... GREELEY...WICHITA...LOGAN...THOMAS AND RAWLINS COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR DECATUR...NORTON... SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...GOVE COUNTY. .NE...BLIZZARD WARNING TONIGHT FOR DUNDY...HITCHCOCK COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR RED WILLOW COUNTY. .CO...BLIZZARD WARNING TONIGHT FOR YUMA...KIT CARSON...CHEYENNE COUNTY. && $$ FS ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 244 PM MST SUN FEB 29 2004 .DISCUSSION...AT 19Z THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG JET ROUNDING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. PROFILER DATA SHOWING A CENTER NEAR NW KANSAS. METARS/RADAR DETECTING SNOW OVER COLORADO ZONES AND RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE. PREFER THE ETA POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AT 18Z TODAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ETA. BY 12Z THE 700MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR LINCOLN NEBRASKA. OMEGA LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE WARNING AREA WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. PROBLEM AREA IS WHETHER RED WILLOW COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS THERE APPEAR TO BE IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. FOR THE SAFE SIDE...WILL EXTEND CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA THERE AND ONE COUNTY SOUTH INTO DECATUR COUNTY. AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MAIN QUESTIONS ARE WHEN WILL AREAS CURRENTLY GETTING RAIN CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. THE RUC/MESOETA 850MB WINDS/TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THESE AREAS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z MONDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER A BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT OVER THE CURRENT WARNING AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE AROUND 03Z MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES IN THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ALSO LATEST SWOMCD PRODUCT INDICATES HIGH POSSIBLITY OF BLIZZARD CONDTIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. SO WILL MAKE A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR EASTERN COLORADO ZONES EXCEPT CHEYENNE COUNTY INCLUDING DUNDY NEB AND CHEYENNE KS/SHERMAN KS. WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN DECREASE TO BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON WIND SPEEDS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT (00Z-18Z MONDAY) THROUGH 1100 AM MONDAY. RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WIND. SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY/NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LOW. COORDINATED WITH BOU...LBF...DDC ON WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. NOTE TO THE MID SHIFT...LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY FROM 12Z TO 18Z FOR AREAS WHERE A WINTER HIGHLIGHT HAS EXPIRED. DAYS 4-7...FEW CHANGES OTHER THAN TO ADD ANOTHER DAY. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON DAY 7. DUE TO QUESTIONABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS ON DAY 4 LOOKS TOO FAR SOUTH TO GIVE US MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT QUESTIONABLE AGAIN SO WILL KEEP JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KS...BLIZZAR WARNING TONIGHT FOR CHEYENNE...SHERMAN COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR RAWLINS...DECATUR... THOMAS COUNTY. WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH 1100 AM MST MONDAY...WALLACE... LOGAN...GOVE...SHERIDAN...WICHITA...GREELEY COUNTIES. .NE...BLIZZARD WARNING TONIGHT FOR DUNDY COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR HITCHCOCK... RED WILLOW COUNTY. .CO...BLIZZARD WARNING TONIGHT FOR YUMA...KIT CARSON COUNTY. WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH 1100 AM MST MONDAY...CHEYENNE COUNTY. && $$ FS ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 320 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN HOW HARD THE WIND WILL BE ON MONDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER SERN COLO EARLIER THIS MORNING HAD DEEPENED TO 992 MB AND MOVED NORTHEAST TO THE VICINITY OF KHLC. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS SURROUNDING THE SWRN KS REGION AND THIS WAS RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30+ MPH OVER PARTS OF ERN COLO. RADAR LOOPS SHOW THAT THE PRECIP SHIELD THAT HAS COVERED THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS RETREATING TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAD SPROUTED OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE REGION AND THIS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WAS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD. FOR THIS EVENING WILL HOLD ON TO THE CHANCE POPS THAT ARE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD, THINK THAT SOME WRAPAROUND R-S- COULD CONTINUE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE THROUGH GARDEN CITY TO LACROSSE. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AREA FROM ASHLAND TO PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE. THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION AS RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BULLSEYE OF 800 J/KG CAPE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER SOUTH OF MED LODGE. THINK THAT PRECIP CHANCES IN THIS AREA WILL BE DIMINISHING BY 00Z SO WILL LET NOWCASTS HANDLE PRECIP IN THAT AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. FEEL THAT POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL NOT QUITE BE MET AS WE MOVE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT. KEPT THE WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IN THAT AREA. GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE BREEZY/WINDY. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT OVER THE PREVIOUS FCST AS WIND/CLOUDS WILL MINIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING. DAYS 3-7... DID NOT FEEL LIKE MAKING A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, GIVEN QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH EXTEND/DURATION OF PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE. THUS, IN AN EFFORT TO LIMIT A FLIP-FLOPPING FORECAST, DECIDED TO KEEP WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY GOING. I DID INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE THE BEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AS DECENT WARM CONVEYER PLUME HAS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH AS UPPER STORM RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. ONCE THE STORM MOVES EAST INTO TEXAS, THERE ARE STILL QUESTION MARKS AS TO THE INTEGRITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FROM WEDNESDAY ON. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 34 50 26 48 / 00 00 00 00 GCK 31 49 23 47 / 30 00 00 00 EHA 31 54 24 47 / 00 00 00 00 LBL 32 54 26 48 / 00 00 00 00 HYS 33 46 23 46 / 40 00 00 00 P28 37 55 29 48 / 00 00 00 00 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. && $$ GERARD/UMSCHEID ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1029 AM MST SUN FEB 29 2004 .UPDATE... BAND OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING FROM CHEYENNE COUNTY KANSAS SOUTH TO WALLACE COUNTY...NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WHICH MORE OR LESS IS ON TOP OF GOODLAND. SNOW BURSTS HAVE REDUCED THE VISIBILITY TO AS LOW AS A MILE AT TIMES...BUT WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S NO SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE PHASE CHANGE. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN WESTERN ZONES...PROBABLY DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION STAYED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. HINTS OF A SECOND BAND FORMING WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE FROM BURLINGTON TO GARDEN CITY. HOWEVER WITH NO SURFACE HEATING AT ALL AND MEAGER CAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 100 AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO GET CONVECTION INITIATED. SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST RUC WHICH KEEPS CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 205 AM MST SUN FEB 29 2004 FOCUS REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. AT 09Z LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING LIGHT RAIN PUSHING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIP BEST HANDLED BY THE RUC/ETA QPF FORECASTS. SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...BEST HANDLED BY THE 06Z ETA. SINCE THINGS LOOK SO GOOD FOR SNOWFALL ONE HAS TO WONDER WHAT COULD GO WRONG. WELL...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER TEXAS AND THREAT OF THEM ROBBING OUR MOISTURE SOURCE. TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS IN BAD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY BUT AT DAYS END AGREE ON PLACING THE CENTER OF OUR STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS. AHEAD OF IT...COPIOUS MOISTURE (FOR LATE FEB) AND LIFT FROM UPPER LOW GENERATE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. ETA CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO FOR THAT REASON AND COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES I HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. FURTHER WEST POPS ARE A BIT LOWER UNTIL NORTHWEST WINDS AND RESURGENCE OF COOLER AIR MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY...CHANGING PRECIP TO SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. FOR TONIGHT...STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD OMAHA WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW... BLOWING SNOW...AND LIKELY NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. HAVE UPGRADED CURRENT WATCH TO A WARNING AND ADDED ADJACENT COUNTIES TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ETA/RUC SIMILAR IN 3 HOURLY TEMPS TODAY SO USED THEM ACCORDINGLY. MONDAY...WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z BEFORE ENDING AS STORM SYSTEM RACES NORTHEAST. EXPECT SOME SNOWCOVER AND WILL USE THE ETA TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THAT DEPICTION. MINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE AS WELL GIVEN INCOMING SURFACE HIGH AND LIGHTER WINDS. TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA DIGS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST STATES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE APPROACHING LOW WILL CREATE SOME MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS. AS THE SYSTEM INCHES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH VARIOUS EJECTING DISTURBANCES FROM THE PARENT UPPER LOW WILL BE WORTHY OF MENTIONING SOME PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...UPPER SYSTEM CRUISES ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE CREATING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. THURSDAY-SATURDAY...NO CHANGES. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR RAWLINS...THOMAS...SHERMAN COUNTY. NE...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT FOR DUNDY COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR HITCHCOCK COUNTY. CO...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT FOR YUMA COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY. && $$ JDK/DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 940 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004 .DISCUSSION... REGENERATION OF SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SE TX...AND MOVING BACK INTO OUR AREA. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED...SO ADDED THUNDER TO MUCH OF AREA. DROPPED LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO THE EAST...WIND GUSTS HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY UNDER 20 MPH...DESPITE WINNFIELD PROFILER INCREASES LOW LEVEL JET A NOTCH. RUC AND MESOETA SHOW VERTICAL VELOCITIES STRONG THRU MIDNIGHT... PERHAPS ABATING SLIGHTLY BY MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS HAS SLOWED DOWN AS WELL...JUSTIFYING RAISING POPS SLIGHTLY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 53 70 55 68 / 50 30 20 20 MLU 56 72 57 68 / 60 30 20 20 TXK 49 70 50 65 / 50 20 20 20 TYR 48 72 53 67 / 30 30 20 20 LFK 53 68 57 70 / 50 30 20 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ VII la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1020 PM EST SUN FEB 29 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INTO MON ARE PCPN TIMING WITH STORM MOVING OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MIN TEMPS. WV IMAGERY...00Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NRN KS WITH ONE STRONG VORT LOBE ROTATING N THROUGH WRN IA. UPR LVL DIV/DIFFLUENCE...QCONV/DPVA AND STRONG H8 THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTED BAND OF -RA THAT WAS MOVING NNE FROM IA AND SRN MN. HOWEVER...AS DYNAMICS WEAKENED A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE LOW...PCPN WAS DIMINISHING AS IT MOVED INTO DRY AIRMASS BLO 700 MB...PER 00Z KGRB/KMPX SNDGS. RADAR TRENDS AND 00Z ETA/RUC SUGGEST PCPN ONSET INTO UPR MI WILL BE DELAYED AS INITIAL BAND CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. EXPECT PCPN TO DEVELOP LATER MON MORNING INTO MON AFTERNOON AS H3 JET OVER THE SRN PLAINS MOVES TOWARD WRN LK SUPERIOR. SO...HAVE MOVED PCPN TIMING BACK ABOUT 3-5 HRS...WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS EARLY...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS WERE RELATIVELY LIGHT...MID CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 30S SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM 03Z READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. EXCEPTION IS NEAR LK MI...TEMPS HAD DIPPER TO AROUND 30 AT KISQ/KESC. EXPECT PCPN TO ARRIVE MON AFTER TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED ABV FREEZING AS ESE WINDS INCREASE MON MORNING. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 400 PM EST SUN FEB 29 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION TIMING WITH SYSTEM OVER PLAINS CURRENT WEATHER...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC 500 MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO UPPER MICHIGAN WITH A NEGATIVELY TROUGH OVER SW KS INTO OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER SHRTWV TROUGH CAN BE SEEN OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE...THE KICKER SYSTEM FOR THE TROUGH IN SE COLORADO. THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER EASTERN KS AND OK AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH WHILE A DRYSLOT WAS APPARENT OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR...EXTENDING UP INTO MN/WESTERN ONTARIO. TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AT 12Z. GRB AND DVN HAD 14 AND 23C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RESPECTIVELY WHERE AS MPX AND OAX HAD AROUND 1C. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE HAS KEPT MOST OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE U.P. AS HIGH CLOUDS PER OBS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1000 MB LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR GOODLAND KS. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDED TO DLH AND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED TO TEXARKANA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...ALLOWING WINDS TO GO N OR NE FOR LAKESHORE AREAS AND COOLING TEMPS DOWN FROM NEAR 50. LAKE BREEZES ALSO COOLING TEMPS DOWN ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN...NOW AROUND 40. IMT...IWD AND SAW STILL IN THE LOW 50S THOUGH WHERE LAKE BREEZES HAVE NOT REACHED THEM YET. THESE TEMPS ARE 9C ABOVE THE CURRENT 850MB TEMPS. RERMQT COMING OUT AGAIN AROUND 5 PM FOR A RECORD HIGH TIE. TONIGHT...BAND OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO WESTERN MISSOURI CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AS THE SFC LOW HEAD TO LINCOLN NEBRASKA BY 12Z. THE RAIN IS AIDED BY DPVA FROM THE SHRTWV TROUGH AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY 30 TO 40 KT JET AT 850MB BEHIND IT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL REACH THE U.P.. 12Z ETA'S 700MB OMEGA FIELD APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON WHERE THE RAIN IS NOW...AND FOLLOWING IT SUGGESTS THAT THE RAIN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WI AT 12Z. THEREFORE WILL TRIM BACK -RA CHANCE TO THE WI BORDER ZONES AND PUSH THE TIMING TO AFTER 09Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. SE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT WILL ALSO ALLOW MOISTURE TO GET PULLED OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...CREATING AREAS OF FOG. CURRENT AREA OF FOG IN GRIDS FROM SE MARQUETTE/S ALGER AND THE LAKE MICHIGAN ZONES LOOKS GOOD. GIVEN THE THICKENING CLOUDS...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND WIND...FIGURE TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT. CURRENT LOWS IN THE MID 30S SEEM REASONABLE WITH THE WARMEST READINGS FAR WEST WHERE SE WINDS DOWNSLOPE. MONDAY...RAIN BAND MOVES DURING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON... GIVING THE U.P. FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN PER ETA QPF. WAS SOME CONCERN THAT THE WEST MAY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. NEXT CONCERN IS WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE RAIN. UNTIL THE DRYSLOT COMES UP HERE...DEEP MOISTURE FROM SNOWMELT/RAINFALL COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. DRYSLOT ITSELF REACHES MENOMINEE COUNTY BY 00Z WHERE 850-500MB LAPSE RATES JUMP UP TO 7 TO 7.5C/KM. HOWEVER...ELEVATED CAPES ARE MINIMAL DUE TO THE INVERSION TOP HAVING A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AROUND 6C. GIVEN FORCING FROM UPPER LOW...SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 110 KT JET OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SFC...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT RW AND ISO TS. TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...LOW 40S IS ABOUT AS HIGH AS THE TEMPS WILL GO. MONDAY NIGHT...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BY 06Z AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH ENTERS WESTERN LOWER MI. DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEFORE HEADING OFF TO THE NE DURING TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTH CHANNEL OF LAKE HURON. PRECIPITATION TYPE APPEARS TO BE ALL SNOW WITHIN THE BAND...WHICH SOME MAY CLIP THE WESTERN U.P. BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. QPF AMOUNTS ARE AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM THE ETA (AIDED BY STRONG OMEGAS INTERSECTING THE MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE) WHICH WITH A 10 TO 1 RATIO WOULD YIELD 2 TO 3 INCHES. CENTRAL U.P. LOOKS TO GET DRY-SLOTTED...BUT AGAIN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AS TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR...SO INCLUDED THAT IN THE FCST TOO. AS FOR HYDRO ISSUES...MAY SEE SOME RISES WITH RIVERS DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT RUN OFF...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND LIGHT WINDS...RUNOFF SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF CONTROL. TUESDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW CROSSES UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO -6C...NOT YET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT. NO SYNOPTIC SUPPPORT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND SHRTWV TROUGH LIFTING OUT TO QUEBEC. ONLY FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC FRONT...AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES...BUT NOTHING THAT WILL ACCUMULATE TO MUCH. TEMPS OF COURSE COOLER THAN MONDAY...BUT STILL THINK HIGHS CAN GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S AS 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT TOO COOL AND WINDS COMING OFF OF THE 1C WATER TEMPERATURE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LOOKS UNEVENTFUL AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TURNS ZONAL. MUCH MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHERE THE SHRTWV NOW OFF THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST FORMS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. READ EXTENDED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR EFFECTS OF THIS LOW. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -6C SO NO LAKE EFFECT TO WORRY ABOUT. THE ONLY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IS THAT SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT STALLS OUT OVER THE U.P...PERHAPS PROVIDING ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES WIHT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL. EXTENDED (THU THROUGH SUN)...GFS ENSEMBLES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ON THE PATTERN...WITH LITTLE SPREAD FOR THU AND FRI...BUT THEN MORE SPREAD SAT AND SUN AS THE E PACIFIC RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND FLOW TURNS ZONAL. LIKE WAS STATED YESTERDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SYSTEM PROGGED TO GO FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WOULD END UP GOING FURTHER NW. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES AND 06Z GFS...ECWMF AND UKMET NOW SHOW THE TRACK GOING FROM OKLAHOMA ON THU TO LOWER MI ON FRI. ECWMF THE FURTHEST NW...HAVING A 985 MB LOW OVER DOOR COUNTY WI AT 12Z FRI. AFTER COORDINATION WITH HPC...WILL FOLLOW THE 06Z GFS. 12Z GFS SIMILAR TO THE 06Z RUN. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV IN THE ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM MOVES ACROSS THE U.P. DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE MAIN BRUNT OF ARCTIC AIR TO STAY UP TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ONLY FALLING TO -10C (NOT -20C LIKE YESTERDAY'S RUNS). UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON WED EJECTS OUT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHRTWV DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. THIS CAUSES A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP OVER OK THU...WHICH MOVES RAPIDLY UP TOWARDS LOWER MI FRI. TWO SCENARIOS FOR UPPER MI: IF THE 06Z/12Z GFS PANS OUT...850MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12C COMBINED WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WOULD BRING A DECENT PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SNOW IS GOING. HOWEVER...IF THE ECMWF OR NEW 12Z UKMET PANS OUT...LOOKS LIKE FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. FOR NOW WILL PUT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE TRACK AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. SYSTEM MOVES OUT FRI EVENING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR SAT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE SAT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...REACHING UPPER MI SUN EVENING. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 0C (AFTER -12C ON SAT)...AGAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. COORDINATED WITH THE RFC AND HPC...THANKS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 526 AM EST SUN FEB 29 2004 .DISCUSSION... CONCERNS FOCUS ON PCPN CHCS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH DVLPG SYSTEM OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPR RDG OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDS FM THE SE STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A WK SFC BOUNDARY EXISTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN ONE LOW OVR JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER DVLPG LOW OVR ERN CO. TODAY...MODELS INDICATE WK TROUGH/FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING PLAINS SFC LOW. RAOBS AND MODEL SNDGS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVR AREA SO GOING DRY FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFIED UPR RDG. LOOK FOR WAA MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS AFT AHD OF PLAINS SFC LOW. DESPITE RISE IN 850MB TEMPS TO 4 TO 6C BY 00Z...CLOUDS AND BACKING FLOW TO EAST AHD OF APPROACHING LOW WILL TEND TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS COOLER EXCEPT FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALG WRN SHORELINES AND AREAS ALONG THE WI BDR...WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO UPPER 40S. REST OF CWA...SHOULD GET INTO LOW TO MID 40S. TONIGHT...UPPER AND SFC LOWS MOVE FROM WRN KANSAS TO NEAR KOAX BY 12Z MON. FOCUSING OF MSTR AT NOSE OF STRENGTHENING 30-40 KT 850 MB JET AS WELL AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE LLVL DRY AIR AND HELP BRING A CHC OF RAIN INTO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA OVRNGT. WILL KEEP IN MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN COUNTIES AND SE MQT COUNTY AS SE WINDS BRING IN RELATIVE MOIST AIR FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE VALUES DUE TO A THICKENING CLOUD DECK...INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS AND BETTER MIXING FROM INCREASED WIND. WENT WITH LOWS IN MID 30S MOST AREAS. MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF UPPER AND SFC LOWS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH IA INTO SRN WI. LOOK FOR BAND OF RAIN TO PUSH THROUGH UPPER MI IN THE MORNING IN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DPVA AND GOOD UPR DIV. DRY SLOT OF MID-UPR LOW THEN COMES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MODEL SNDGS SHOW LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. LOOK FOR SCT RW OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES IN THE DRY SLOT STEEPEN TO BETWEEN 7 AND 7.5 C/KM AS SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO AROUND 1C. DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 120 KT UPR JET SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE EXTRA SUPPORT FOR THUNDER/CONVECTION BY LATE AFT OVER MUCH OF CWA. SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT QUESTION GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 6000 FT. MONDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH DRY SLOT TO MOVE OUT EAST OF THE U.P. BY 06Z AS THE UPPER AND SFC LOWS HEAD ACROSS THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. BEST CHC OF LINGERING RW OVRNGT WILL BE OVER SE ZONES NR TRACK OF UPR LOW AND OCCLUDED SFC FRONT. DRYING IN WAKE OF UPR AND SFC LOWS WILL YIELD JUST A MIXTURE OF DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES TO THE WEST AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO AREA. TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADJECTION UNIMPRESSIVE IN WAKE OF SRN STREAM SYSTEM AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY LOWER TO -6 TO -8C BY 00Z WED. LEFT IN CHC POPS ACROSS CWA FOR LIGHT -SHSN ALTHOUGH FEEL WE MAY JUST GET FLURRIES AT BEST...DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXAMINE AND POSSIBLE LOWER OR REMOVE CHC POPS. KEPT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR FAR EAST EARLY. KEPT GOING FCST OF HIGHS IN LOW TO MID 30S. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 912 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS. CLOUDS WERE THIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 32F AT DLH... COQ...MZH...AND 30 AT ASX AS OF 03Z. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO DROPPED TO 28F TO 30F. DEWPOINTS UP THE NORTHSHORE WERE IN THE MID 20S. LOOKING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...DEWPOINTS WERE 27F TO 30F. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO THICKEN BACK UP...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN RISE A COUPLE DEGREES. DEWPOINTS TOUGHER TO PINPOINT...AND WILL BE CRITICAL. SURGE OF RAIN MOVING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...ARCING INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS IS NOT DEPICTED WELL BY EITHER THE 00Z NGM AND ETA...OR EVEN THE RUC. EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...AS UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES NORTH AND WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE RAIN IS MOVING NORTH AROUND 35 MPH. THOUGHT ABOUT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF SHORELINE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH THICKENING CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE SOME. THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND LOCAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT NOT ISSUING AN ADVISORY. I WILL WAIT HOWEVER AND CHECK THE 04Z OBSERVATIONS BEFORE MAKING FINAL JUDGEMENT. ELSEWHERE...CURRENT GRIDS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON SITUATION. MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW SNOW SOUTHWEST AS WELL. && .DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. $$ MELDE mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 213 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004 .DISCUSSION... SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDING WINDS THIS EVENING, CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING, AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 46 MPH AT SGF. FUNNEL EFFECT UP THE WHITE RIVER BASIN HELPED INTENSIFY THE EFFECT OF VERY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. OFF THE PLATEAU IN JOPLIN WINDS GUSTED TO 41 MPH. LINE OF LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED MODERATED SHOWERS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE LOST ALL CG LIGHTNING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, AND WITH VIRTUALLY NO CAPE, DONT SEE ANY THREAT OF WIDESPREAD THUNDER. MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE OVER TX AND OK PANHANDLES HAS TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS, AND RUC SHOWS CAPE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH COLD CORE, MISSING OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY WOUND-UP SYSTEM NOW PLOWING INTO OREGON COAST. THIS WILL RELOAD THE SOUTHWESTERN US LONGWAVE TROUGH. IN CONTRAST TO TODAYS SYSTEM, DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO A DEVELOPING STORM OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, 850 TO 700 MB MOISTURE SURGES UP AND OVER SHALLOW COOL AIR INTO OUR CWA, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN RESULTING. MAJOR PIECE OF LONGWAVE EJECTS OUT THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. PRIMARY LONGWAVE DOESNT COMPLETELY MOVE TO THE EAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS FINAL PIECE OF THE WAVE ROTATES THROUGH. BROWNING && .AVIATION... KJLN TAF TO CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING AS DRY SLOT WRAPS IN. WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE WITH STRONG POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP LAYER MIXING EXPECTED. MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WARRANTED LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG JETLET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH 50 KNOTS OF FLOW PROGGED AROUND 900MB. SIMILAR FORECAST FOR SPRINGFIELD TERMINAL EXCEPT THAT SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...WITH SIMILAR CLEARING BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. BOOKBINDER && .FIRE WEATHER... SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE PLATEAU WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 MPH AS FRONTAL RAIN BAND PUSHES ACROSS THE OZARKS. RH INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION WILL END THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BOOKBINDER && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1106 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004 .DISCUSSION... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... SKIES HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY CLOUD FREE ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS ALLOWED BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH TO PENETRATE INTO A FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT THAT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX AS CLOUD COVER ADVECTS IN. SUSTAINED SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO RAPID DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OVER ERN CO/WRN KS. MEANWHILE...NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND AFTER BRIEF INTENSIFICATION HAS DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 20-30 MINUTES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DUE TO THE STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN STRONGLY BACKED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN EXTREMELY SLOW TO OCCUR. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE...THERE HAS BEEN NO RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS OVER OK/KS AND ITS ELEVATED NATURE IS JUSTIFIED BY PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS AND 88D VELOCITY DATA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE OZARKS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND ACTUALLY WOULD EXPECT THESE TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MIXING NEARLY BALANCE. WITH THAT SAID...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION IS ALL BUT NON-EXISTENT WITH CAPES NEAR ZERO OVER THE CWA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH IF NARROW MOISTURE WEDGE CAN BEAT THE RACE OF THIS LINE INTO SE KS/FAR WRN MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT ACTUAL DRY LINE/COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION...WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ROTATING INTO WRN OK. AS COLD UPPER CYCLONE ROTATES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...A NARROW WEDGE OF INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN A NARROW AXIS ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT AND THE SURFACE OCCLUSION INTO EASTERN KANSAS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON ADVANCEMENT OF DRY AIR FROM THE SW DESERTS. THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW...HOWEVER ANY LOW-TOPPED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN THIS REGION WOULD LIKELY EXHIBIT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS ON THE HORIZON AND EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION (INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS) EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT JOPLIN AROUND 19-20Z...AND INTO SPRINGFIELD BETWEEN 22 AND 23Z. CIGS/VIS TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL ARRIVAL OF ELEVATED SQUALL LINE WITH MVFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED THEREIN (BRIEF IFR IN HEAVIER PRECIP). IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH AND FAIRLY GUSTY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT WRAPAROUND STRATO-CUMULUS TO REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS JLN/SGF TERMINALS...BUT THOSE HEADED TOWARD KANSAS CITY AND POINTS NORTH WILL LIKELY INTERCEPT A FAIRLY LOW OVERCAST THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ BOOKBINDER mo SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 945 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004 .DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT AND CONVECTION MARCHING ACROSS CENTRAL TX. LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS SAT WITH JUST LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF THAT. MORNING CRP SOUNDING SHOWS HUGE CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...AND DONT EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN MUCH DURING THE DAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING FROM AROUND BEEVILLE UP TO VICTORIA. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND WILL KEEP POP CONFIGURATION GOING. LATEST RUC/MESOETA ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP...KEEPING THE BULK OF IT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH JUST THE TAIL END ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER SCA TO SCEC OVER THE BAYS AS WINDS ONLY IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. LATEST VWP SHOWS 0-1KFT WINDS RELAXING A BIT AS LLJ CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST. && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA 250-255-270-275 && $$ 91 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 200 AM MST MON MAR 1 2004 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS TODAY AS WELL AS THE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FROM THE RECENT SNOW. IN THE MID TERM FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL CANCEL BLIZZARD WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT ZONE ISSUANCE AND REPLACE THEM WITH A WIND ADVISORY. AT 09Z LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE MAP SHOW THE SURFACE LOW IS NOW IN THE HASTINGS FORECAST AREA WITH WRAPAROUND SNOW EXTENDING BACK INTO EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS AT 09Z REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. TODAY/TONIGHT...FOCUS TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. AS OUR WOUND-UP LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD MODEST 6 HOURLY PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW RIGHT BEHIND IT. 850 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. RUC AND VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE WINDS ALSO SUGGEST THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET OR VERY CLOSE TO IT. WILL CONTINUE TO GET SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS TODAY AND WITH SOME SNOWCOVER AROUND WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR THE VARIOUS MOS/2M GUIDANCE NUMBERS. FOR TONIGHT AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH NOSES INTO THE AREA...LOWERING WIND SPEEDS CONSIDERABLY. GIVEN SOME SNOWCOVER AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES. TUESDAY...ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 40S LOOK GOOD WHEN COMPARING THE VARIOUS 2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS AGAINST THE 850 TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK. AS USUAL...THE EAST SHOULD BE COOLER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO SURFACE HIGH AND TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REACH THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG WILL TRY AND REACH THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA PER ETA BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY. ETA PAINTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AS DOES HPC. GFS A BIT OVERDONE. WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS PER GFS WHILE THE ETA/UKMET/ECMWF PUSH THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. ETA ALSO TRIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT 850 AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A LIQUID FORECAST THAN FROZEN. I DONT HAVE A REAL GOOD FEEL FOR WHAT WILL HAPPEN SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HPC QPF AND ETA P-TYPE ALGORITHMS. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST AREA GETS IN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING UPPER/SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN TEXAS. ETAS CLOUD SHIELD PER RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN THE GFS BUT GIVEN DIFFERENCES THAT WILL LIKELY SHOW UP FROM RUN TO RUN HAVE GONE ETA SOLUTION WITH A MIXED PRECIP TYPE POSSIBLE. THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN LATEST ETA/GFS TRACK AT TIMING OF THE 500 UPPER LOW. GFS AND PREVIOUS RUN ARE FASTER WHILE EXPERIMENTAL ETA IS SLOWER. QPF FORECASTS FROM 12Z-00Z (FRIDAY) KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS DRY AS WELL BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND GFS SUGGESTION THAT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO... PUTTING US IN UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. FRIDAY...DIFFERENCE SHOW UP AGAIN WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. GFS AS USUAL A BIT WETTER WITH PRECIP THAN THE EXPERIMENTAL ETA. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS IN TACT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NO CHANGES MADE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES. NE...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES. CO...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES. && $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 400 AM EST MON MAR 1 2004 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY)... GFS AND ETA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL FOLLOW GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE MODELS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF FRONT WAS ADVANCING SLOWLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF KY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT STILL IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE WESTERN PARTS OF LMK FA BY DAYBREAK. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE WEST BUT ONLY CREEPING UP IN THE EAST. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REACH THE EAST MID TO LATE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND HAVE GONE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE. DEEP LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SWEEP EAST TONIGHT WITH FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY LATE TONIGHT. WILL DECREASE POPS SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT SLOWS ACROSS FA TONIGHT. WILL ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN OVER THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. MESOETA AND 24 HR RUC ARE HINTING AT REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR. HOWEVER BY MORNING THE RAIN WILL BE OUT OF FA. THIS WILL GIVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT/ WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANCES IN EXTENDED FOR NOW. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ SCHOLZ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004 .DISCUSSION... 850 TO 700 MB THETA E ADVECTION FROM RUC MODEL APPEARS TO CORRELATE WITH CONVECTION WORKING NORTH ACROSS IOWA. THE THETA E ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH BUT THE FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN UNSTABLE SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTH AND EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON SATELLITE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA...ACROSS IOWA...TODAY. THIS SHOULD MAKE THE BALANCE OF THE DAY MOSTLY CLOUDY EVEN THOUGH A DRY SLOT IS NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT THIS TIME. DISORGANIZED TEMPERATURE ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE FORCING OR ISENTROPIC LIFT MAKE THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE TODAY THEN OVER THE TWIN CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF CONTINUED VERTICAL MOTION AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING WEDNESDAY MORNING STILL ON TRACK TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. LONGER TERM...GFS REMAINS ON COURSE WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OK/TX REGION ON THURSDAY AND MOVING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING A RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF MN. HENCE..A DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH RETREATS AND LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 945 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... 12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR LOW/992MB SFC LO OVER ERN NB DRIFTING SLOWLY ENE INTO UPR RDG OVER THE ERN CONUS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR (12Z PWAT 0.81 INCH AT GRB) WELL IN ADVANCE OF SFC/UPR LO NOTED LIFTING NWD THRU LK MI AND NE WI...WITH AREA OF LGT TO MDT RA IN RRQ UPR DVGC OF 100KT H3 JET MAX NR GRB MOVING INTO THE SCNTRL ZNS AT 14Z. OTRW...THERE IS NO PCPN ACRS THE FA ATTM AS 12Z APX SDNG SHOWS AIRMASS AHEAD OF MSTR SLUG RATHER DRY...BUT SKIES ARE CLDY WITH SFC TEMPS 34 TO 39. MAIN FCST CONCERN TDAY IS RA TRENDS. 12Z RUC/06Z ETA AND GFS SHOW OCCLUDED CYC IN NB MOVING TO NE IA BY 00Z. H3 JET MAX PROGGED TO LIFT N THRU CNTRL CWA...WITH ACCOMPANYING UPR DVGC THUS IMPACTING THE ECNTRL FA MORE THAN THE FAR W. ALTHOUGH GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT/DPVA AND DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF APRCHG CYC WL CAUSE RA TO BREAK OUT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THRU THE AFTN...XPCT THE MOST WDSPRD/HEAVIER RA TO IMPACT THE ECNTRL ZNS UNDER THE BETTER UPR DVGC. RA AMTS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA MAY BE LIMITED INITIALLY BY ANTECEDENT DRY AIR AS DEPICTED ON APX SDNG... BUT PERSISTENCE OF DYNAMICS SHUD EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE AIRMASS THERE. WDSPRD CLD COVER AND RA WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP INCRS...BUT SFC TEMPS ALREADY ABV 32...SO NO FZRA CONCERNS CONSIDERING RATHER WARM SURFACES DUE TO RECENT WARMTH. RECENT COORDINATION WITH NCRFC SUGS EXPECTED QPF WL NOT PRESENT ANY SGNFT HYDRO PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING RA WL FALL WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S TO NR 40 TO LIMIT RUNOFF. LATEST RIVER LEVEL OBS INDICATE LTL IN THE WAY OF RISE THE LAST 24 HRS...AND CURRENT LEVELS WELL BLO FLOOD OR EVEN BANKFULL STAGE. DRIER AIR PROGGED TO MOVE IN AFTER 21Z ONCE UPR JET/DVGC AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC LIFTS N. MDDELS SHOW SHOWALTER INDEX FALLING TO ABOUT +1C TO 2C TOWARD 00Z ACRS THE SRN TIER ZNS AS COLDER H5 AIR OVERSPREADS LINGERING H85 THERMAL RDG...SO HAVE OPTED TO ALLOW MENTION OF ISOLD -TSRA IN THAT AREA EVEN THOUGH DRYING ALF/LOSS OF BETTER DYNAMICS WL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CNVCTN. KC .LONG TERM... TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BY 06Z AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN LWR MI. WITH MID LVL SLOT AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES (APPROACHING 7C/KM) ESPECIALLY OVR SCNTRL AND SE COUNTIES WILL KEEP IN MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. MODELS STILL HINT THAT DEFORMATION BAND ON BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS WRN AND NCNTRL UPR MI BEFORE LIFTING NE TUE MORNING. MODEL SNDGS AND LOW-LVL THCKNS INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEHIND OCCLUDED COLD FRONT. WITH ANYWHERE FROM .1 TO .2 INCH OF MODEL QPF...WOULD EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW OVR W AND NCNTRL COUNTIES. LLVL THCKNS OVER EASTERN ZONES SUGGEST PCPN THERE SHOULD STAY LIQUID...KEPT IN A MENTION OF DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SCT RW ALTHOUGH ETA MODEL SNDGS NOT INDICATING AS MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT TO DISRUPT SNOW GROWTH PROCESS. KEPT IN A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...DZ OR FZDZ FOR SCNTRL ZONES LATE. AS FOR HYDRO ISSUES...WITH .25 TO .40 INCH OF QPF PREDICTED BY MODELS SHOULD SEE SOME RISES IN RIVER LEVEL DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT RUN OFF...ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T EXPECT ANYTHING TOO DRAMATIC. TUESDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREAS BEHIND SFC LOW AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO -6C TO -8C...NOT YET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT. WITH LTL OR NO SYNOPTIC SUPPPORT AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT WOULD EXPECT ONLY SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS WK RDGG MOVES OVER AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. PERHAPS COULD SEE SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WED AFT AS SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET WX. VOSS && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 734 AM EST MON MAR 1 2004 .UPDATE... RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS AND RUC 700MB THETA-E ADVECTION POINT TO RAINFALL EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY 15Z. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO BRING RAIN INTO ALL BUT THE THUMB COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD PRECIP OFF IN THE THUMB UNTIL AFTER 15Z. IN ADDITION...WITH TEMPERATURE AT MOP 28 COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IN BAY/MIDLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN AND INITIAL LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP. OKEEFE && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 140 AM...UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD...WITH RAIN BEING THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER TYPE. ANOTHER MILD DAY TODAY AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 50S. UNFORTUNATELY...WE WILL HAVE SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTEND WITH AS A SPOKE OF ENERGY (CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA) AND MOISTURE AXIS MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH MOISTURE SURGING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER WERE PRETTY MUCH CONFINED TO THE COLD CORE LOW...WITH EVEN FEW HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE REPORTS NOTED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA EARLY YESTERDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN FIRING UP ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS/ARKANSAS...OUT AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS THE MENTIONED ENERGY/WAVE. FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THE SHOWALTER INDEX GOING NEGATIVE IS THE NGM. HOWEVER...CLOSER INSPECTION OF THE MESOETA SHOWS THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR COMING IN AROUND 925 MB...WHERE COMPUTED LI'S DO GO NEGATIVE BY EVENING. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HERE IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS ANY DAYTIME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE LOW (-24 TO -28 C AT 500 MB) QUICKLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO TRACK NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ONTARIO IN IT'S WAKE. THE PUSH OF COLD AIR TO THE SOUTH APPEARS TO BE WEAK...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY. EUROPEAN/CANADIAN/NOGAPS/UKMET/GFS ALL NOW SHOWING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CHICAGO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS MORE WESTERN TRACK WILL CALL FOR ALL RAIN INTO FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A REAL GOOD SOAKING...AS PW VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. WITH A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE (YESTERDAY'S 00Z GFS RUN WAS SIMILAR)...WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RAISE TEMPS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WILL LEAVE OUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO ADD THEM TO THE FORECAST IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK AS VIGOROUS. DESPITE THE FACT MOST/ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS WARM/RAINY SCENARIO...THIS IS NOT A DONE DEAL. MODELS GENERALLY HAVE TOUGH TIME WITH CUTOFF LOWS EXTENDING SO FAR SOUTH (NORTHERN MEXICO). THERE IS A BIAS AT TIMES OF LIFTING/OPENING UP THESE SYSTEMS TOO FAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS SYSTEM MAY STAY PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS/MEXICO A LITTLE LONGER. THIS COULD OPEN THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...PRODUCING MORE OF A SNOWY SCENARIO FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .CLIMATE... UNOFFICIAL FEBRUARY NUMBERS ARE IN. WHERE WAS THE SNOW??? THE DETROIT METRO AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMP WAS 28.5 DEGREES...WHICH WAS 1.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH WAS ONLY 0.9 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE 3RD LEAST SNOWIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD. THE RECORD FOR LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW IN FEBRUARY IS A TRACE WHICH OCCURRED IN 1998. THE FLINT BISHOP AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMP WAS 24.9 DEGREES...WHICH WAS 1.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH WAS ONLY 6.1 INCHES...WHICH IS 3.3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SF EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 555 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TODAY THEN PCPN TYPE AND CHCS TONIGHT. WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS UPR RDG OVER THE GRT LAKES WITH A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS. WK SHRTWV LOBE ROTATING UP FROM CLOSED LOW LIFTING BAND OF -RA UP THROUGH WI EARLY THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR. HOWEVER VERY DRY AIR OVR UPR GRT LAKES AS EVIDENT ON 00Z KAPX AND KGRB SNDGS IS NOW BREAKING APART THIS BAND AS IT REACHES INTO FAR NRN WI. EXPECT ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OVER WI BDR COUNTIES FROM THIS INITIAL BAND. TODAY...MAIN EVENT LOOK LIKE IT WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS MAIN SHRTWV NOW OVER ERN KS ROTATES UP INTO WI AND LWR MI...PER MODEL FCST. STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET OVER SE WI AND LAKE MI IN LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF 120 KT UPR JET WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND LLVL CONVERGENCE TO ALLOW MAIN BAND OF PCPN NOW OVR ERN IL...INDIANA AND LAKE MI TO LIFT INTO UPR MI THIS AFT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL FAVOR ERN HALF OF UPR MI FOR CATEGORICAL RAIN WHILE RAIN WILL BE MORE SCT WEST OF A KMQT-KIMT LINE. WENT ONLY SLIGHTLY ABV GUIDANCE TEMPS AS THICKENING CLDS AND ERLY FLOW WILL NOT FAVOR MUCH OF A REBOUND IN TEMPS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BY 06Z AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN LWR MI. WITH MID LVL SLOT AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES (APPROACHING 7C/KM) ESPECIALLY OVR SCNTRL AND SE COUNTIES WILL KEEP IN MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. MODELS STILL HINT THAT DEFORMATION BAND ON BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS WRN AND NCNTRL UPR MI BEFORE LIFTING NE TUE MORNING. MODEL SNDGS AND LOW-LVL THCKNS INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEHIND OCCLUDED COLD FRONT. WITH ANYWHERE FROM .1 TO .2 INCH OF MODEL QPF...WOULD EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW OVR W AND NCNTRL COUNTIES. LLVL THCKNS OVER EASTERN ZONES SUGGEST PCPN THERE SHOULD STAY LIQUID...KEPT IN A MENTION OF DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SCT RW ALTHOUGH ETA MODEL SNDGS NOT INDICATING AS MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT TO DISRUPT SNOW GROWTH PROCESS. KEPT IN A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...DZ OR FZDZ FOR SCNTRL ZONES LATE. AS FOR HYDRO ISSUES...WITH .25 TO .40 INCH OF QPF PREDICTED BY MODELS SHOULD SEE SOME RISES IN RIVER LEVEL DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT RUN OFF...ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T EXPECT ANYTHING TOO DRAMATIC. TUESDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREAS BEHIND SFC LOW AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO -6C TO -8C...NOT YET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT. WITH LTL OR NO SYNOPTIC SUPPPORT AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT WOULD EXPECT ONLY SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS WK RDGG MOVES OVER AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. PERHAPS COULD SEE SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WED AFT AS SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET WX. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1116 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004 .DISCUSSION... LATEST UPDATE ADJUSTED PCPN AND TEMP TRENDS SOMEWHAT. NRLY STACKED UPR LOW SLOWLY CROSSING MO RVR. VISIBLE STLT IMAGERY NOW SHOWS SC/CU ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH MID/HIGH CLDS OVR ALL BUT NRN PTNS. 16Z SFC ANLYS PLACES FILLING LOW BTWN KOLU-KFET WITH ISALLOBARIC COUPLET RIGHT ACRS IA. OCCLUDED THEN WRMFNT NOTED FM LOW TWRD KALO INTO NRN IL. MSTR AXIS NOW E OF FA MAINLY INTO IL. 15Z RUC CONTS TO PUSH DEEPER INSTABILITY IN TERMS OF K INDICES...SHOWALTERS AND MID LVL THETA-E LAPSE RATES OFF TO OUR N AND E SO DEEP...USING THE TERM LOOSELY...CONVECTIVE THREAT IS DMSHG. VRY MINOR SFC BASED POTENTIAL STILL THERE ACRS FAR ERN SXNS HWVR WITH SBCAPES UP TO ARND 500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CIN...BUT MAINLY AFFECTING DVN FA RATHER THAN OURS...SO FEEL SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR W. KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN FCST TO BLEND INTO OUTLOOK...BUT APPS THAT CHC DCRG. BETTER CHCS LOOK TO BE FM MS RVR EWD. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS. WL SEE LTL CHG WRN PTNS AS SFC LOW NRS...AND XPC LTL ADDITIONAL REBOUND IN ERN PTNS AS WE HAVE DVLPD LOW CLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. KEPT HITTING WNDS FAIRLY HARD...SPCLLY SRN HALF S OF FNT WHERE WNDS ARE QUITE GUSTY. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1050 AM MST MON MAR 1 2004 .UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE TEMPORAL WORDING AND MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND/TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 200 AM MST MON MAR 1 2004 FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS TODAY AS WELL AS THE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FROM THE RECENT SNOW. IN THE MID TERM FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL CANCEL BLIZZARD WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT ZONE ISSUANCE AND REPLACE THEM WITH A WIND ADVISORY. AT 09Z LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE MAP SHOW THE SURFACE LOW IS NOW IN THE HASTINGS FORECAST AREA WITH WRAPAROUND SNOW EXTENDING BACK INTO EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS AT 09Z REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. TODAY/TONIGHT...FOCUS TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. AS OUR WOUND-UP LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD MODEST 6 HOURLY PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW RIGHT BEHIND IT. 850 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. RUC AND VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE WINDS ALSO SUGGEST THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET OR VERY CLOSE TO IT. WILL CONTINUE TO GET SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS TODAY AND WITH SOME SNOWCOVER AROUND WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR THE VARIOUS MOS/2M GUIDANCE NUMBERS. FOR TONIGHT AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH NOSES INTO THE AREA...LOWERING WIND SPEEDS CONSIDERABLY. GIVEN SOME SNOWCOVER AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES. TUESDAY...ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 40S LOOK GOOD WHEN COMPARING THE VARIOUS 2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS AGAINST THE 850 TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK. AS USUAL...THE EAST SHOULD BE COOLER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO SURFACE HIGH AND TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REACH THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG WILL TRY AND REACH THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA PER ETA BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY. ETA PAINTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AS DOES HPC. GFS A BIT OVERDONE. WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS PER GFS WHILE THE ETA/UKMET/ECMWF PUSH THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. ETA ALSO TRIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT 850 AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A LIQUID FORECAST THAN FROZEN. I DONT HAVE A REAL GOOD FEEL FOR WHAT WILL HAPPEN SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HPC QPF AND ETA P-TYPE ALGORITHMS. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST AREA GETS IN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING UPPER/SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN TEXAS. ETAS CLOUD SHIELD PER RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN THE GFS BUT GIVEN DIFFERENCES THAT WILL LIKELY SHOW UP FROM RUN TO RUN HAVE GONE ETA SOLUTION WITH A MIXED PRECIP TYPE POSSIBLE. THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN LATEST ETA/GFS TRACK AT TIMING OF THE 500 UPPER LOW. GFS AND PREVIOUS RUN ARE FASTER WHILE EXPERIMENTAL ETA IS SLOWER. QPF FORECASTS FROM 12Z-00Z (FRIDAY) KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS DRY AS WELL BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND GFS SUGGESTION THAT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO... PUTTING US IN UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. FRIDAY...DIFFERENCE SHOW UP AGAIN WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. GFS AS USUAL A BIT WETTER WITH PRECIP THAN THE EXPERIMENTAL ETA. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS IN TACT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NO CHANGES MADE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES. NE...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES. CO...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES. && $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 320 PM CST MON MAR 1 2004 .DISCUSSION... GETTING RID OF ONE SYSTEM AND GEARING UP FOR THE NEXT. DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS LATER THIS EVENING. FROM NOW TILL MID EVENING THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY. LOW CLOUDS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB COLD POOL WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A LOWER DECK TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY THE RUC AND ETA 925MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS TO SURGE SOUTH AT THE SAME TIME THE STRATOCU IS LIFTING NORTHEAST. NET EFFECT...MAY SEE SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36 BUT LOWER DECK FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE MO RIVER BY 12Z TUE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF/SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ETA/MAV MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTS INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS WEAK VORTICITY LOBE SHEARS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON WEDNESDAY THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN IN STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO TIGHTENED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING AS CLOUDS/RAIN KEEP READINGS WITHIN A 5-10 DEGREE RANGE. MJ A SOGGY FINISH TO THE WORK-WEEK IS FORECAST...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE EJECTION OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...AIDED BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SHORTWAVE APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LOW CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI ON THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT. HAVE GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING OVERNIGHT. LS && .PREV DISCUSSION... 330 AM... THE FOCUS OF THIS MORNINGS FORECAST IS ON LARGE CLOSED LOW SWEEPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND ITS EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TODAY. SECONDARY CONCERN IS ON THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF STORMY WEATHER WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONUS DOMINATED BY A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH IS DEFINED BY TWO VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST HAS CARVED OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER OREGON. THE CLOSED LOW LIFTING OUT OF NEBRASKA HAS BROUGHT A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT TO EAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. LATER THIS MORNING MOISTURE IN THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL ROTATE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OR POSSIBLY SNOW DURING THE COOL MORNING HOURS. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL EXPAND ALONG THE MISSOURI IOWA BORDER AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE RANGING ABOVE 50KT ON THE VAD WIND PROFILER THIS MORNING...AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING SHOULD PREVENT ENOUGH MIXING TO TRANSPORT THOSE WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SO WHILE I EXPECT WINDS TO BE BLUSTERY TODAY...THEY SHOULD RANGE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN MIDWEST THANKS TO THE SECOND SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE EJECTING BITS AND PIECES OF ITSELF OUT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL PREFERENCE FOR THIS SCENARIO IS ON THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE UKMET/EXTRAPOLATED ETA. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE DISPLAYING ITS BIAS OF HOLDING THE SHORTWAVES TRACK A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH. THE MAIN EFFECT THIS HAS HAD ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SHIFT OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FIRST SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...TO THURSDAY WHEN THE OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. I LIMITED THE LIKELY THUNDERSTORM POPS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WERE THE BEST THETA-E ADVECTION LOOKS TO OCCUR. DESPITE MY PREFERENCE FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE MID WEEK SYSTEMS...I HAVE BUMPED HIGH AND LOW TEMPS UP A LITTLE GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE COLDER AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN BOTTLED UP NORTH OF THE DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL JET. CUTTER && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1029 PM SUN... HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND WILL UPDATE TEXT PRODUCTS SHORTLY...TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT QUICKLY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE AREA THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI AS MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOSER. NRR && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1050 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004 .DISCUSSION... JUST SENT UPDATE TO FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT GIVEN THE WARM START THIS MORNING. FORECAST FOR WINDS IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...STAYING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SPC MESOANALYIS AT 16Z SHOWING MUCAPES AROUND 500J/KG WITH IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PARAMETERS. RUC SHOWING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER IL/NERN MO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT UNDER STRONG 700-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...SO SHOULD SEE SOME TSRA DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS THIS AFTN. AGREE WITH SPC'S SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST THE SAME. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .IL...NONE. $$ BRITT mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 300 PM CST MON MAR 1 2004 .SHORT TERM...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM RIO GRANDE CITY INTO SOUTHERN KENEDY COUNTY AND STILL PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTHEAST. PROGRESS HAS SLOWED SOME THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC AND MESOETA STALL THE BOUNDARY AROUND 00Z THEN BEGIN ITS RETURN TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THE RESULT OF THE FRONT COLLIDING WITH A LONG LIVED STREAMER. MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW CONFINED ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT .LONG TERM...LONG TERM FORECAST RESTS ON THE TRACK OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NOW MOVING DOWN THE OREGON COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN WEST TEXAS. THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DRAGS THE TROUGH THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL GO TOO FAR NORTH FOR OUR CWA TO SEE MUCH RAINFALL. IF THE UPPER TROUGH DIVES FARTHER SOUTH...OUR RAIN CHANCES RISE SIGNIFICANTLY. .MARINE...BUOY020 CHECKS IN WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 6 KNOTS AND 7 FOOT SWELLS AT 9 SECONDS. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT WITH SWELLS DECREASING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SOMETIME THIS EVENING. SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TONIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE. MODERATING WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TAP UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN WINDS PICK UP IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO THIS CHANGING WEATHER REGIME...BUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 76 66 79 68/ 10 00 00 00 00 BROWNSVILLE 64 76 67 80 67/ 10 00 00 00 00 HARLINGEN 62 77 65 82 66/ 10 00 00 00 00 MCALLEN 61 78 64 83 66/ 10 00 00 00 00 RIO GRANDE CITY 59 79 62 84 66/ 00 10 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 74 66 76 67/ 10 00 00 00 00 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA FOR GMZ150-155-170-175. && $$ SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...64 AVIATION/MARINE...52 MESO...VEGA THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO tx