AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 325 AM MST MON NOV 15 2004 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT)...UPPER CLOSED LOW VACILLATES AROUND NRN BAJA TODAY PRODUCING A SELY FLOW OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA. CURRENT SATELLITE PICS SHOW LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF DURANGO. EARLIER THIS CLOUD SHIELD PRODUCED A FEW RADAR ECHOES FROM THE ABQ 88D. RUC IDENTIFIED THIS WELL AS IT SHOWS A WEAK VORT LOBE APPROACHING GALLUP. ALL THIS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FCST OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS...AND PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. LOWERED POPS OVER THE CNTRL MTNS AS MOISTURE SHOULD NOT WORK THAT FAR NORTHWARD. WITH WARMING ALOFT AND MORE SUNSHINE EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER TDY. LITTLE CHANGE IS SEEN TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OUR SRN CWA. CURRENT POP AND TEMP FIELDS LOOK GOOD FOR THESE TIME PERIODS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW FINALLY GETS KICKED EASTWARD AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO CNTRL CALIFORNIA. GFS REMAINS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THIS PERIOD SHOWING A BETTER PROMISE OF LIMITED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE TO REFLECT THIS TREND. TEMPS LOOK GOOD. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-MONDAY)...LONG RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MAJOR CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. APPEARS THAT BY THE WEEKEND...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN HAS A TROUGH IN WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR DIVING DOWN OVER OUR CWA. WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND EXPECT MILDEST MAX TEMPS DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SOME CLOUDS LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA...SPINNING UP FROM UPPER LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE CONFINED TO SW CO MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ALONG CONT DIVIDE...THEN THE MINIMAL PRECIP THREAT SPREADING NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO AREA WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. DYNAMICS OVERALL SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN THE COOLING TREND...ESPECIALLY FOR MAX TEMPS AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE ALONG WEST COAST RESULTS IN NORTHERLY FLOW DRIVING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR OVER OUR AREA...WITH SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO SURFACE IN MOST ZONES. ALTHOUGH DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND INSTABILITY ...MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO LONG OVERLAND TRAJECTORY. MOSTLY LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE SNOWFALL SHOULD BE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. DECREASING THREAT OF SNOW BY LATE SUNDAY. .MONDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT FOR UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND POSITION OUR CWA UNDER A GENERALLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SOLAR INPUT...SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES MODERATING UPWARD AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES FROM SUNDAY. PRESENT MAX TEMP FORECAST JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE...AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO COLD DUE TO LARGE CLIMATOLOGY WEIGHTING FACTOR. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .CO...NONE. .UT...NONE. && MC/JRP co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 859 PM EST MON NOV 15 2004 .DISCUSSION... EVENING CAPE CANAVERAL SOUNDING INDICATES PWATS DOWN TO 0.84 INCH AND MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED BELOW STRONG INVERSION NEAR H8. AREAS OF STRATOCU AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ADVECTING ONSHORE THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH WAS RUNNING 20-25KT IN THE H10-H8 LAYER...BASED ON PROFILERS AND EVENING CAPE SOUNDING. SFC OBS INDICATE WINDS STILL OCCASIONALLY GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH NEAR THE EAST COAST AT PRESENT. LATEST RUNS OF THE RUC/MESOETA SHOW A DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS ALBEIT VERY SLOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUES. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE MODIFIED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST COAST. CURRENT ZONES AND GRIDDED FIELDS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE INDICATING SLOW TREND DOWN IN WINDS OVERNIGHT AND 10% POPS IN GRIDDED FIELDS. MINIMAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. && .MARINE...HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS STILL RUNNING AROUND 10FT AT BUOY 41009 WITH NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG EC FL COAST OCCURRING BETWEEN 930 AND 1030 PM. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP ADVISORY WITH EARLY MORNING PACKAGE IF SLOW TREND DOWNWARD IN SEA HEIGHTS OCCURS OVERNIGHT. && && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY OVERNIGHT. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. && $$ SHORT TERM...BLOTTMAN LONG TERM...GLITTO fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 845 PM EST MON NOV 15 2004 .SYNOPSIS...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/RUC 500 MB COMPOSITE DEPICTS A CLOSED LOW OVER NW MEXICO. A DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE SERN CONUS WITH ITS CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ERN CONUS W/ MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE (00Z TLH SOUNDING PWAT 0.5") ABOVE 850 MB W/ ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO NWLY ABOVE 500 MB. .PUBLIC...NO CHANGES. 00Z TEMPS/DEW POINTS IN LINE W/ GUIDANCE. .MARINE...3-4 MB SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS IS CREATING NE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS AND GUSTY. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 6 FT AT THE BUOYS. PER MODEL TRENDS AND SURROUNDING WFOS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IN EFFECT FOR ALL LEGS OVERNIGHT. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...SCA GMZ750-755-770-775. RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES BUT IMMEDIATE COAST TUE AFTN FROM NOON UNTIL SUNSET. && $$ MAJ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 257 PM EST MON NOV 15 2004 .DISCUSSION... BASED ON SFC OBS/VIS SAT CLOUD DECK IS FAIRLY UNIFORM...SUGGESTING THE H80-H60 SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EVIDENT ON THE 12Z RAOBS IS STILL QUITE POTENT. DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NE... THE RUC80 ANALYSIS INDICATING H85-H50 MEAN RH LVLS BLO 30% ALONG THE E FL COAST WHILE AFTN SFC OBS SHOW DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE L/M50S AREAWIDE. DEEP E/NERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. PGRAD WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT SHOULD REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT COMPLETE DECOUPLING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ADVECT OCEAN MODIFIED AIR AND A SCT-LCL-BKN STRATOCU DECK ONSHORE...KEEPING MIN TEMPS ALONG THE COAST IN THE L/M60S. WEAKER WINDS AND FEWER CLOUDS INLAND WILL ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE M50S/L60S. TUE-THU...MID-WEEK FORECAST PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD. GOMEX H50 RIDGE HOLDS FIRM AS THE OLD MEX CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY WED. LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS TX AND INTO THE ARKLATEX THU... WHILST STARTING TO OPEN UP. LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SOUTH TO POSN OVER CTRL OR SRN GA. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG NE WINDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...THOUGH STILL A TAD BREEZY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TUE. COMPACT BUT POTENT H50 SHORT WAVE TROUGH/VORT CENTER ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE GOMEX RIDGE AND THEN DROPS SE-SSE ALONG THE SOUTH ATLC SEABOARD...REACHING NE FL/ADJACENT ATLC LATE TUE NIGHT/WED. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULDN'T BE MORE THAN 10% CHC AT BEST GIVEN HOW DRY/CAPPED THE AIR MASS REMAINS. WILL CONFINED MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHCS TO COASTAL WATERS. THU LOOKS LIKE A FINE DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND LIGHT NE WINDS. FRI-MON...WEAKENING H50 TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FLATTEN WHAT'S LEFT OF THE WEAKENING GOMEX RIDGE FRI. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER OVER NOAM WILL TRANSITION INTO A REX BLOCK OVER THE PAC COAST/WRN CONUS WITH A LONG WAVE POS TILT TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NERN STATES. SOUTH OF THIS...LAST WSW ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ZIP OVER TOP OF A FLAT CARIBBEAN RIDGE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES CENTER WILL EASE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO START TO WARM AND MOISTEN LOCAL AIR MASS. MED RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE CONVERGING TWD A SOLN WHERE A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BDRY PRESSES INTO THE SE STATES SUN/MON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE/JET INDUCED LIFT/WEAK CONVG TO PRODUCE SMALL RAIN CHCS SUN/MON. && .MARINE...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION DURING HIGH TIDES EARLY IN THE FCST CYCLE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS 10-12FT SEAS SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE SEAS WILL COME DOWN TO LESS THAN 10FT BY DAYBREAK OR A LITTLE THEREAFTER...AND HOPEFULLY WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE HSA TOMORROW MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 60 76 54 76 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 59 77 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 62 76 58 77 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 62 77 58 78 / 0 0 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY OVERNIGHT... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. && $$ SHORT TERM...BRAGAW LONG TERM...CRISTALDI fl SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 840 AM EST MON NOV 15 2004 CURRENTLY...STRONG NE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS WITH GUSTS BROACHING 30 KNOTS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC AND ONSHORE THE SE FLA COAST. A RAFT OF CLOUDS ADVECTING SOUTHWESTWARD AS WELL PRODUCING MINUTE SHOWERS...PRODUCING MINIMAL...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION. BESIDES COSMETIC/WORDING CHANGES TO PUBLIC/MARINE ZONE PACKAGES ...PLAN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LATEST WSETA/RUC GUIDANCE CONTINUES CURRENT WIND REGIME INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO ALL CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SMALL MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER THE GOES SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRIER AIR THAT IS OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND OUR NORTHERN ZONES. SO PROBABILITY SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH THAT WILL LEAVE THIS ACTIVITY OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER WAVE THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO NOTICE ITS IMPACT BY WEDNESDAY. AT THAT TIME IT WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD COLD FRONT AND START TO RELAX THE WINDS AS A RESULT. THIS WILL ALSO DEVELOP A ZONE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR ZONES SO WE SHOULD HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A RESULT. ONCE THIS FEATURE HAS PASSED WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED WELL EAST BY THAT TIME AND WE SHOULD HAVE BROUGHT BACK HIGHER HUMIDITIES OVER ALL OF OUR ZONES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. && .MARINE...UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY WEAKENS THE SURFACE HIGH WE WILL BE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THE SWELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY BUT THEN HAVING LOST THEIR GENERATION SOURCE SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY. BY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WE WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE HIGHS EASTERLY WINDS THE GRADIENT SHOULD HAVE DECREASED BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF BEACH EROSION AT THE SAME TIME. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE SHOULD BE IN IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. && .FIRE WEATHER...GPSMET DATA NEAR THE LAKE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING. SO WHEN WE ARE ABLE TO MIX THIS DOWN HUMIDITIES OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SHOULD DROP INTO THE 30S. TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE DRIER CONDITIONS WE COULD REACH FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 78 68 78 65 / 05 00 00 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 79 69 79 67 / 05 00 00 10 MIAMI 79 68 78 67 / 05 00 00 10 NAPLES 80 62 79 60 / 00 00 00 00 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY ZONES 068...072...074. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATLC WATERS. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GULF WATERS. && $$ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO 903 AM MST MON NOV 15 2004 .DISCUSSION...MUCH LESS CLOUDS AND FOG THAN YESTERDAY BUT THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS STILL THERE...12Z BOI RAOB SHOWS IT EVEN STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. BUT STRONGER SE WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE AND VERY DRY AIR ABOVE HAS DISPERSED THE FOG AND STRATUS. IF THE INVERSION COULD MIX OUT TODAY/S VALLEY TEMPS WOULD REACH THE 60S. TONIGHT THE SE WINDS WILL DECREASE BUT LOW LEVELS WILL STAY DRY SO EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS TO LAST NIGHT. FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NW WILL COME IN TUE...PROGS HAVE VARIED ON STRENGTH AND LOCATION AFTER IT GETS EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT LATEST ONES SHOW THE FRONT STRONGER AND TAKE IT FURTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAY/S PROGS...INTO OUR CWA TUE. NEW ETA IN PARTICULAR SUGGESTS HIGHER POPS TUE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN IDAHO ZONES. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST BUT AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL SHOW A WETTER TREND FOR TUE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS AND A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY BUT DRY AS A WAVY COLD FRONT REMAINS N AND W OF CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS AT 4 AM IN SOUTHWEST CANADA NEAR THE FRONT WERE ALSO NEAR A 135KT JET MAX /PER RUC MAX WIND/ WHICH WILL LIFT NE FURTHER INTO CANADA AND SLOW THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION. A WAVE ON THE FRONT 35-40N 130-135W THIS MORNING WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OREGON TUESDAY AS THE NRN PART OF THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH N ID AND MT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOR CHC POPS FAVORING WESTERN ZONES AND THE MOUNTAINS. SFC PRES REMAINS RATHER HIGH AND THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE FOR THIS LOW POP/MINIMAL QPF EVENT. LOW LAYER SE WINDS WILL ALSO INHIBIT VALLEY MOISTURE/POPS AND KEEP MINS UP A BIT TUESDAY MORNING...AND WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE MORE SO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 06Z ETA PREFERRED WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH STALLED FRONT OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY BUT WARM THICKNESSES AND HIGH UPPER HEIGHTS PREVAIL FOR MINIMAL VALLEY/SRN MOUNTAIN POPS. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS AGREE ON MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON THURSDAY. GFSLR IS FASTER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR. ONLY THE JAPANESE MODEL WANTS TO HOLD THE TROUGH OFFSHORE UNTIL FRIDAY AND THEN BRING IT INLAND ABOUT 15 DEGREES FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANY OF THE OTHERS. WE ARE GOING WITH THE FASTER LOWER AMPLITUDE MAJORITY WHICH WOULD CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTHERNMOST PERIPHERY. FOLLOWING THE TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DESCENDS FROM B.C. AFFECTING MAINLY OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT AMPLIFIES IN ITS DIVE TOWARDS COLORADO ON SATURDAY. BY THEN NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPS LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND FAR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THEN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE WEST PUTS US UNDER A DRY PATTERN. TEMPERATURES START OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY UNDER WESTERLY FLOW THEN DROP TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION.......LC PREV SHORT TERM..VJM PREV LONG TERM...JT id AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO 430 AM MST MON NOV 15 2004 .SHORT TERM...OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS AND A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY BUT DRY AS A WAVY COLD FRONT REMAINS N AND W OF CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS AT 4 AM IN SOUTHWEST CANADA NEAR THE FRONT WERE ALSO NEAR A 135KT JET MAX /PER RUC MAX WIND/ WHICH WILL LIFT NE FURTHER INTO CANADA AND SLOW THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION. A WAVE ON THE FRONT 35-40N 130-135W THIS MORNING WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OREGON TUESDAY AS THE NRN PART OF THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH N ID AND MT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOR CHC POPS FAVORING WESTERN ZONES AND THE MOUNTAINS. SFC PRES REMAINS RATHER HIGH AND THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE FOR THIS LOW POP/MINIMAL QPF EVENT. LOW LAYER SE WINDS WILL ALSO INHIBIT VALLEY MOISTURE/POPS AND KEEP MINS UP A BIT TUESDAY MORNING...AND WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE MORE SO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 06Z ETA PREFERRED WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH STALLED FRONT OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY BUT WARM THICKNESSES AND HIGH UPPER HEIGHTS PREVAIL FOR MINIMAL VALLEY/SRN MOUNTAIN POPS. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS AGREE ON MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON THURSDAY. GFSLR IS FASTER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR. ONLY THE JAPANESE MODEL WANTS TO HOLD THE TROUGH OFFSHORE UNTIL FRIDAY AND THEN BRING IT INLAND ABOUT 15 DEGREES FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANY OF THE OTHERS. WE ARE GOING WITH THE FASTER LOWER AMPLITUDE MAJORITY WHICH WOULD CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTHERNMOST PERIPHERY. FOLLOWING THE TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DESCENDS FROM B.C. AFFECTING MAINLY OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT AMPLIFIES IN ITS DIVE TOWARDS COLORADO ON SATURDAY. BY THEN NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPS LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND FAR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THEN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE WEST PUTS US UNDER A DRY PATTERN. TEMPERATURES START OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY UNDER WESTERLY FLOW THEN DROP TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. WEATHER.GOV/BOISE && $$ SHORT TERM..VJM LONG TERM...JT id AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 910 PM CST MON NOV 15 2004 .DISCUSSION... SOME MINOR CHANGES TO PRECIP WORDING COMING ALONG IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. MAIN SHORT TERM CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP COVERAGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY...CURRENTLY UP ACRS CNTRL LAKE MICHIGAN...CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY FROM OUR AREA. IN ADDITION... FAIRLY DECENT AREA UP UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOICATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF SPEED MAX ENHANCING THE LIFT ACRS OUR AREA THIS EVENING JUST ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FCST AREA. LATEST RUC AND ETA MODEL RUNS SUGGEST BEST LOW LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADV WL BE ACRS OUR CNTRL AND SE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND RADAR MOSAIC SUGGESTING THIS MAY INDEED BE OCCURRING WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN NOW ACRS OUR CNTRL AND SRN AREAS WITH A BREAK INDICATED TO OUR WEST. WITH THE CONTINUING TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE THE CEILINGS AND VSBYS START TO GRDLY LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN CONTINUING...ESP ACRS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. WL LOWER POPS TO CHC CATEGORY NORTH AND KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WITH INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTINUING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ALOFT...LOOKS AS IF ONCE LOW LVL CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS ACRS OUR AREA...MAY BE TOUGH TO COMPLETELY SCOUR IT OUT OVR THE NEXT SVL DAYS. OTHER THAN THE FIRST PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS IN PRECIP WORDING...REST OF FCST LOOKS FINE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... LATEST 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST 1815Z VISIBLE SATELLITE PLACE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO PLACES SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS IOWA SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS STATES. LATEST 1815Z WATER/VAPOR IMAGE PLACES A SHORT/WAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN...SEVERAL OTHER WEAKER SHORT/WAVES WERE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND A STRONG SHORT/WAVE NEAR BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. LATEST 1843Z KILX RADAR INDICATES SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN NEAR PEORIA AND NORTH. HAVE ELECTED TO LEAN ON GFS MODEL THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN SHORT TERM WILL BE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS MOVES H50 LOW FROM UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEAST SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE ERIE WITH ANOTHER LARGE H50 LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHWEST U.S. BY 12Z TUE. THEN GFS PLACES ANOTHER H50 TROF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH H50 LOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO MOVING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS BY 12Z WED. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATES HIGH RH AT ALL LEVELS FROM 06Z TUE-12Z TUE WITH HIGH RH FROM 700-1000MB FROM 12Z TUE-12Z WED. THEN HIGH RH AT HIGHER LEVELS RETURN FROM 12Z WED-00Z THU. 300K ISENTROPIC SFC INDICATES SOME WEAK LIFT AND GOOD COND PRES DEF ACROSS CWA BY 00Z TUE. THEN 300K ISENTROPIC SFC INDICATES GOOD COND PRES DEF ACROSS THE REGION FROM 12Z TUE-00Z THU. MODEL SOUNDING DATA INDICATES HIGH RH AT ALL LEVELS RETURNING BY 06Z TUE-12Z TUE. THEN SOUNDING DATA INDICATES LOWER RH FROM 700MB TO 300MB UNTIL 12Z WED. MODEL SOUNDING DATA ALSO INCREASES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR 1.0 INCH ON TUESDAY UP TO 1.3 IN ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODEL INCREASES 850MB TEMPERATURES TO +6C TO +7C BY 12Z TUE...THEN 850MB INCREASES TO +7C TO +9C BY 12Z WED. GFS PLACES SOME WEAK 250MB DIVERGENCE ACROSS CWA BY 00Z TUE...WITH STRONGER 250MB DIVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN CWA FROM 00Z TUE-06Z TUE. THEN SOME WEAK 250MB DIVERGENCE RETURNS TO WESTERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z-06Z WED. THEN STRONGER 250MB DIVERGENCE RETURNS TO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z THU. WITH THIS SAID...WILL BUMP UP POPS TONIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS AND GO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WORDING. WILL GO LOWER THEN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING IN. WITH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE NOT AS BIG OF A DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WITH CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF FOG MAY BE IN LINE WITH DRIZZLE MORE THEN LIGHT RAIN. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... USING BLEND OF MODELS...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AFTER SYSTEM PASSES H85 TEMPERATURES DROP AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE ELECTED TO INCREASE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHEN THE SYSTEM GETS MORE DEFINED MAY NEED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY LATE ON FRIDAY. HAVE ELECTED TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOL H50 TEMPS. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. && $$ SMITH/13 il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 539 PM CST MON NOV 15 2004 .AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS... MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TNGT/EARLY TUE. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND PLAN PROFILER PLOTS SHOW S/WV TROUGH MOVG THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTN. AREA OF SFC PRES FALLS AHEAD WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS WI AND TOWARD LAKE MI IN RESPONSE TO UPPER FORCING. 12Z RUNS OF ETA/GFS INDICATE S/WV TROUGH TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OVER MI BETWEEN 06-09Z...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CURRENT SHRA TO DIMINISH. LGT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE SSW WITH TIME OVRNGT AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW ACROSS PLAINS AND INTO MS VLY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO LOW-MID 40S INTO IA/IL. THIS HELPING TO SATURATE LOWER LVLS AS TEMPS ALSO IN MID 40S ACROSS AREA. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DVLPD FROM ECNTRL IA INTO SRN WI IN MOIST ADVECTION AXIS. MAV/FWC MOS PICK UP ON THIS WITH 200-900 FT CIGS INDICATED BY LATE TNGT...THOUGH ETA MET GUIDANCE NOT NEARLY AS PESSIMISTIC. ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CIGS IN 2000-2500 FT RANGE WITH DRIER AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. BASED ON LLVL MOISTURE AND CURRENT UPSTREAM OBS HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED THAT NGM/GFS IFR SCENARIO MAY BE BETTER FCSTS...AND HAVE GONE WITH IFR AT KRFD AND KDPA...AND HINTED TOWARDS THAT POSSIBILITY AT KORD...KMDW AND KGYY WITH A SCT008 AFT 09Z. EVERYONE BACK INTO MVFR RANGE MID TO LATE MORNING TUES WITH SOME HELP FROM DIURNAL WARMING. RATZER && .DISCUSSION THE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE RUC80 SHOWS THE ISENTROPIC FLOW THIS EVENING. USING THE GFS OMEGA FORECAST AT 700 MB EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO END BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AROUND BENTON COUNTY INDIANA AND FORD AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS THROUGH FRIDAY. A 500 MB RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY BUT WE EXPECT ONLY A CLOUDY SKY. THE NEXT LONG WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED THE GFS MODEL FOR THE FORECASTS DAYS 2 TO 7 AND THE ETA MODEL FOR TONIGHT THROUGH DAY 2. THE ETA MODEL AND GFS MODELS WERE CLOSE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE .IN...NONE .LK MI...NONE $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 255 PM CST MON NOV 15 2004 .DISCUSSION THE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE RUC80 SHOWS THE ISENTROPIC FLOW THIS EVENING. USING THE GFS OMEGA FORECAST AT 700 MB EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO END BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AROUND BENTON COUNTY INDIANA AND FORD AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS THROUGH FRIDAY. A 500 MB RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY BUT WE EXPECT ONLY A CLOUDY SKY. THE NEXT LONG WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED THE GFS MODEL FOR THE FORECASTS DAYS 2 TO 7 AND THE ETA MODEL FOR TONIGHT THROUGH DAY 2. THE ETA MODEL AND GFS MODELS WERE CLOSE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS... CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS AND SOME HZ TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS DPS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON LIGHT SW FLOW. A LOT OF ECHOES ALOFT BUT VERY LITTLE HITTING GROUND AS STILL VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. BEST OMEGA AND Q-VECGTOR CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE HI CLOUDS. LATER TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS THE LIFT DEPARTS SO NOT CONVINCED ANY PRECIP. FOR THIS REASON TAFS LEFT DRY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED SOME SPRINKLES EARLY TONIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP. AF && .LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE .IN...NONE .LK MI...NONE $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 955 PM EST MON NOV 15 2004 .UPDATE... 11-3.9 MICRON SAT IMAGERY INDICATED LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAD DEVELOPED QUICKLY OVER NRN WI SINCE SUNSET AND WAS SPREADING INTO SRN UPR MI. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS HAD FALLEN OFF AT INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH READINGS AS LOW AS 28F AT KIMT. DOWNSLOPE SSW FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPS UP CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WHERE READINGS REMAINED AOA 40F. SATELLITE TRENDS AND 00Z ETA SFC-900 MB RH SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF UPR MI BUT MAY NOT BE AS THICK OVER THE KEWEENAW. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE INTO S AND E UPR MI...PER 00Z KGRB SNDG AND FCST SNDGS...STILL SUPPORT MENTION OF -DZ OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST WAS ON TRACK AND UPDATE WILL MAINLY FRESHEN WORDING AND MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND CLOUD/FOG TRENDS. && JLB .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW MOVING THRU WI. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LIGHT PCPN HAS REMAINED MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH...HOWEVER... ELEVATED ECHOES EXIST ON KMQT RADAR FROM IMT TO SAW AND EWD. MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVNG IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THAT IS ALL AS THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAK LIFT WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPS/CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DZ. RATHER BENIGN WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BIGGER FCST CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THIS WEEKEND AS WE FINALLY WILL TAP INTO SOME COLDER AIR FROM CANADA. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS PRETTY GOOD CLEARING IN THE WRN U P RIGHT NOW. THIS CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THIS EVENING. COMPARISON OF UPSTREAM MORNING RAOBS WITH ETA FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE ETA MAY HAVE OVERDONE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT. EVEN SO...WITH CONTINUED LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION PER S/SWLY FLOW TONIGHT AND STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE WI LOW...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUD AND/OR FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ETA/GFS SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS AND NOW RUC SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT IT BY 03-06Z. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS...AND WILL INTRODUCE MENTION OF -DZ IN THE EAST (ETA...IF IT IS RIGHT...SHOWS A SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING FROM THE SFC-850MB AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THIS LAYER LATER TONIGHT). WITH CLEARING AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVNG (ESP WEST)...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. VEERING 925MB FLOW ON WED AND SOME RESULTANT DRY ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO ERODE ANY MORNING LOW CLOUD OR FOG...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 10C BY LATE TUE...AND WITH SOME SUN SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR THE MID 50S OUT WEST. MET HIGH OF 60F AT IWD SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM...BUT WITHIN REACH WITH ENOUGH SUN...AS COULD BE A WEAK MQT RECORD OF 54F. COOLEST READINGS (MID 40S) WILL BE IN THE EAST UNDER THICKER CLOUD COVER. AS MID SHIFT NOTED...MAY EVEN SEE SOME AFTN LAKE BREEZES...VERY UNUSUAL FOR NOVEMBER. BUILDING SFC RIDGE FROM THE WEST...IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU NORTHERN ONTARIO...WILL BRING ABOUT A WIND SHIFT WED NIGHT AND NW TO N FLOW ON THU. GFS/ETA/UKMET ALL SHOW THIS. THOUGH THE FROPA WILL BE DRY...TEMPS ON THU SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY IN THE 40S. THIS RIDGE WILL SCOUR OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...SETTING UP A COOLER NIGHT THU NIGHT. IN THE EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...MUCH COOLER/MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN EVOLVING AS A DEEP UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRI...AND WILL INTRODUCE CHC RAIN IN THE WEST BY AFTN (PER MODEST HGT FALLS/UPR DIVERGENCE). BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS FRONT COMES THRU. ON SAT...ALL MODELS SHOW MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING FROM CANADA SWD ALONG THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE SW CONUS. THIS WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY LEAVE A WEAKER/PROGRESSIVE NRN SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT/SUN. GFS/ECMWF IDEA OF A BUILDING ANTICYCLONIC SFC RIDGE MAY NOT BE UNREASONABLE. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY THOUGH...AS THE LATEST DGEX RUN EVEN SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THRU LOWER MI INTO SUN...AND THE UKMET WRAPS UP A LOW JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY SUN MORNING. WITH SUCH A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES WILL BE VAGUE FOR NOW STICK WITH A BASIC COOLING TREND AND A TRANSITION TO SHSN SAT/SUN. THE LAKE SHOULD GET INVOLVED AS H8 TEMPS DROP TO -12C PER THE GFS/ECMWF. SHSN SHOULD DIMINISH MON AS WINDS BACK AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JKL mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 339 PM EST MON NOV 15 2004 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW MOVING THRU WI. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LIGHT PCPN HAS REMAINED MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH...HOWEVER... ELEVATED ECHOES EXIST ON KMQT RADAR FROM IMT TO SAW AND EWD. MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVNG IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THAT IS ALL AS THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAK LIFT WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPS/CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DZ. RATHER BENIGN WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BIGGER FCST CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THIS WEEKEND AS WE FINALLY WILL TAP INTO SOME COLDER AIR FROM CANADA. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS PRETTY GOOD CLEARING IN THE WRN U P RIGHT NOW. THIS CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THIS EVENING. COMPARISON OF UPSTREAM MORNING RAOBS WITH ETA FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE ETA MAY HAVE OVERDONE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT. EVEN SO...WITH CONTINUED LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION PER S/SWLY FLOW TONIGHT AND STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE WI LOW...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUD AND/OR FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ETA/GFS SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS AND NOW RUC SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT IT BY 03-06Z. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS...AND WILL INTRODUCE MENTION OF -DZ IN THE EAST (ETA...IF IT IS RIGHT...SHOWS A SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING FROM THE SFC-850MB AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THIS LAYER LATER TONIGHT). WITH CLEARING AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVNG (ESP WEST)...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. VEERING 925MB FLOW ON WED AND SOME RESULTANT DRY ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO ERODE ANY MORNING LOW CLOUD OR FOG...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 10C BY LATE TUE...AND WITH SOME SUN SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR THE MID 50S OUT WEST. MET HIGH OF 60F AT IWD SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM...BUT WITHIN REACH WITH ENOUGH SUN...AS COULD BE A WEAK MQT RECORD OF 54F. COOLEST READINGS (MID 40S) WILL BE IN THE EAST UNDER THICKER CLOUD COVER. AS MID SHIFT NOTED...MAY EVEN SEE SOME AFTN LAKE BREEZES...VERY UNUSUAL FOR NOVEMBER. BUILDING SFC RIDGE FROM THE WEST...IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU NORTHERN ONTARIO...WILL BRING ABOUT A WIND SHIFT WED NIGHT AND NW TO N FLOW ON THU. GFS/ETA/UKMET ALL SHOW THIS. THOUGH THE FROPA WILL BE DRY...TEMPS ON THU SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY IN THE 40S. THIS RIDGE WILL SCOUR OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...SETTING UP A COOLER NIGHT THU NIGHT. IN THE EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...MUCH COOLER/MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN EVOLVING AS A DEEP UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRI...AND WILL INTRODUCE CHC RAIN IN THE WEST BY AFTN (PER MODEST HGT FALLS/UPR DIVERGENCE). BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS FRONT COMES THRU. ON SAT...ALL MODELS SHOW MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING FROM CANADA SWD ALONG THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE SW CONUS. THIS WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY LEAVE A WEAKER/PROGRESSIVE NRN SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT/SUN. GFS/ECMWF IDEA OF A BUILDING ANTICYCLONIC SFC RIDGE MAY NOT BE UNREASONABLE. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY THOUGH...AS THE LATEST DGEX RUN EVEN SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THRU LOWER MI INTO SUN...AND THE UKMET WRAPS UP A LOW JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY SUN MORNING. WITH SUCH A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES WILL BE VAGUE FOR NOW STICK WITH A BASIC COOLING TREND AND A TRANSITION TO SHSN SAT/SUN. THE LAKE SHOULD GET INVOLVED AS H8 TEMPS DROP TO -12C PER THE GFS/ECMWF. SHSN SHOULD DIMINISH MON AS WINDS BACK AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JKL mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 958 AM CST MON NOV 15 2004 .DISCUSSION... HAVE ALREADY SENT UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY TRENDS. STRATUS QUICKLY ERODING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND STRATUS DECK THAT WAS ADVECTING IN FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATING AS WELL. 12Z MODELS SUGGEST A RESURGENCE OF SOME LOW CLOUDS TODAY BUT THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 00Z. WITH THIS IN MIND UPPED TEMPS A BIT ACROSS MOST AREAS DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE AND BROUGHT THEM MORE IN LINE WITH ETA/RUC H925 TEMP FIELDS BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS MODELS WOULD SUGGEST AS WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. .PREV DISCUSSION... COMPACT BUT LARGELY INERT UPR CIRC WANDERING EWRD DOWN INTERSTATE 90 AND CORE SHUD BE JUST ABOUT RIGHT OVER OUR HEADS ATTM. CONTINUE TO FIND A LOT OF DRY AIR ARND...BUT TRAJECTORY OF MID LVL MOISTURE AHEAD FM SERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA...AND ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE COMPLETE WITH LOW CLOUDS THRU MOST OF SD CWA AND ADJACENT AREAS. MAIN ISSUE IN SHORT TERM SURROUNDS LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL TRENDS...WHICH HAS STRONG FEEDBACK TO FCST TMPS. INITIALIZATION OF HGTS AROUND SYSTEM IN NRN PLAINS WAS NOT STELLAR BY ANY MEANS. GFS AGAIN SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HAND DEALT...BUT DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY MINOR FOR FIRST 2 TO 3 PDS. LOW CLOUDS FOCUS ATTENTION TODAY. IN ADDITION TO MAIN BAND OF 2-4KFT CIGS ACRS SERN SD IN MAX 925 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT...NOW DVLPG SECONDARY AREA OF LOWER CIGS AND FOG ON WRN SIDE OF CLDS ACRS CNTRL NE. LOW LVL WNDS BLO INVERSION ARE SUGGESTIVE OF ADVECTING IN BEHIND AS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THE REST OF NIGHT TOWARD SCNTRL. THIS AREA...IF GETS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...COULD AFFECT CLOUD AND TMP GRIDS BEYOND CRNT THINKING. WL CONTINUE TO TREK CLEARING BEHIND AREA TO E THRU THE DAY...REACHING I29 MIDDAY...AND VERY LATE AT BEST FAR SERN CWA. NOT GREATLY IMPRESSED BY DRIZZLE CHC AND GAVE STRONG CONSIDERATION TO FULL REMOVAL...BUT STILL MANAGE TO GET A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR AS WNDS VEER AS PER MRR PROFILER OVR TOP OF MOISTURE LAYER AND SOME WK WAA VERTICAL MOTION LATER MORNING TO EARLY AFTN FOR WK LIFT. HOWEVER...WL TRIM BACK AREA AS WL TAKE TIME TO SET UP THIS MORNING...AND MOISTURE REALLY GETS FAIRLY SHALLOW DURING AFTN. TMPS SHUD HAVE NO PROBLEM WARMING TO JUST SHY OF MAX POTENTIAL OUT WEST BASED ON 900HPA TMPS...WHILE WARMING TO A MIDWAY BETWEEN CLOUD RERADIATIVE AND 925 HPA MIXING IN E...BASING ON SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS/RUC/06Z META. MOISTURE WL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW AS INVERSION TROMPS DOWN ACRS AREA AS TMPS WARM GREATLY OFF SFC. SLY/SELY SFC FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH TRAJECTORY TIED TO HIGHER DWPT AIR TO S. LKLY TO SEE CONTINUATION OF CLEARING...BUT AS RIDGE ALFT SLIDES A BIT EAST TONIGHT AND LLJ REFRESHES THRU WRN PLAINS...WL LKLY SEE LOW CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN FM S. NICE TO SEE ETA ACKNOWLEDGE THE LOW LVL MOISTURE NOW FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR FOGGY SCENARIO AS DEVELOPED IN CNTRL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...FOR MUCH OF AREA STARTING BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG INVERSION WL SUGGEST LINGERING WELL INTO TUE MORNING. DOWNSTREAM OF BUFFALO RIDGE SHUD AVOID WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...AND WL KEEP TMPS MILD AS WELL. HIGH TMPS TUESDAY VERY CRITICAL TO CLOUDS BREAKING...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH AS POTENTIAL WITH EXTREME INVERSION. HARD TO IMAGINE WNDS COMING AROUND TO FULL W WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR WRN CWA BASED ON SLOWER PROGRESSION OF SFC TROUGHING AND FLOW INDUCED BY TROUGH MOVING THRU THE DKTS. HOWEVER...DID INCREASE TMPS SOMEWHAT FOR TUE AGAIN W... WITH LESSER CHANGE TO E...BUT REFLECTED A MODIFIED CLOUD RERADIATIVE TEMPERATURE BEING WARMER WITH LTST RUNS. EXPECT CLEARING TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EWRD ON TUE NIGHT. WED WARMED TMPS UP QUITE A BIT AS SLOWER WITH GENERALLY ONLY HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING BACK IN...AS WELL AS A WK DRIER PUSH AS SFC RIDGE NOSES IN FM N. DID GO WITH THE OVERALL TRENDS IN MDL SUITES TO BRING UP THE PACE A BIT WITH PCPN ENDING. WL ATTEMPT TO TIME IN AND OUT WITH POP DISTRIBUTION. SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF PCPN SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED FROM INVERTED TROUGH TO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL LIFT. THEREFORE...COLDER AIR SHUD STILL NOT ARRIVE BEHIND LTR FRIDAY FROPA BEFORE PRECIP TAPERS OFF. MID POINT OF NOVEMBER...AND YET TO SEE EVEN A TRACE SNOWFALL IN VIRTUALLY ALL OF CWA. SEEMINGLY WL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL VERY LAST BREATH OF EXTENDED TO FIND EVEN A SMALL RISK. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ JRM/CHAPMAN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1007 PM CST MON NOV 15 2004 .UPDATE... SEVERAL WEATHER ISSUES TO ADDRESS LATE THIS EVENING. SEVERAL ROADS REMAIN CLOSED IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE HEAVY RAIN WHICH OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY. AREA RADARS INDICATE LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST OK. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST TX ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST NM. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL TX...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA FROM SOUTH TX. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY ALIGNED NNE TO SSW...AND EXTENDED FROM WEST OF MINERAL WELLS TO EAST OF DEL RIO. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE OCCURING WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY IN OUR COUNTIES...WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4 - 1/2 MILE IN PLACES. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER...IN THE LOWER 60S...EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. LATEST ETA AND RUC MODELS INDICATE BRING THIS BOUNDARY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN IMPROVING VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES WITH THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE. ANOTHER ISSUE IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIZEABLE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS/CONVECTION OVER MEXICO SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND REGION...MOVING NNE. LATEST ETA MODEL LIFTS THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO SLIGHTLY TO THE ARIZONA BORDER BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN TRACKS IT EASTWARD ALONG THE AZ AND NM BORDERS WITH MEXICO ON TUESDAY. ALSO SHOWS THE LOW BEGINNING TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH...APPROACHING WEST TEXAS WITH A NEGATIVE TILT BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST...WOULD EXPECT THE CONVECTION WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER MEXICO TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY AFFECT OUR COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS TIME FRAME IS WHEN THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY/HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD AFFECT OUR AREA. STILL LOOKING AT LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...PLAN TO DECREASE POPS. WILL KEEP HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...WHERE SOME CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM BIG BEND REGION. WILL INSERT PATCHY DENSE FOG MENTION IN WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR COUNTIES. WILL ALSO INDICATE SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES IN SAME AREA WHILE CARRYING STEADY TEMPERATURES FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS AND FLOOD WATCH UPDATE OUT BY 10 PM. && .PREV DISCUSSION... STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT TODAY AS IT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSED THE AREA EARLIER TODAY AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME ROAD CLOSURES IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. GIVEN COMPLETELY SATURATED GROUND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...ISSUED A FLASH WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE RUNOFF. UPPER LOW FORECASTED TO BEGIN A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO A POSITION NEAR THE SOUTHERN AZ/NM BORDER BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. CONCOMITANTLY...HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP WILL EDGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE BIG BEND AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT STRONGEST IN THE SERIES OF SHORTS WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH FINAL EJECTED UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND DE-AMPLIFY ON THURSDAY AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD UPPER FLOW...THERE MAY BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE HOWEVER. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL RETURNS THIS WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY. && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TX. && $$ 08/19 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 240 PM CST MON NOV 15 2004 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE HEART OF THE COASTAL PLAINS...WAS WEAKENING AS THE CLOUD SHIELD BREAKS UP AND MIXING OF THE SELY H85 FLOW COMMENCES. BELIEVE THE SFC TROUGH WILL BECOME RESTABLISHED ALONG THE COAST AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE LATEST RUC INDICATES...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BEST SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES. NEXT S/W AS DEPICTED BY WV LOOP WAS NEARING THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ATTM AND SHOULD HELP ENHANCE PCPN ACTIVITY OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONSIDERING THE SOILS ALONG THE COAST ARE SATURATED AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOW...WILL POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INLAND AND BECOME POSITIONED ALONG A LINE FROM COTULLA TO VICTORIA BY AFTERNOON. IF THE CLOUDS BREAK UP...THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME UNSTABLE WITH LI'S OF -6 AND CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG. MESO-ETA SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 200 M2/S2. THUS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE FROM W-E TUESDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG/ISO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HVY RAINFALL. STUCK FARILY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THE FIRST TWO PERIODS. && .AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AS COOL AIR SETTLES BACK TO THE COAST AND LIGHT RAIN/FOG REDEVELOPS OUT WEST. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM E-W TUESDAY MORNING. && .MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN SCA CONDITIONS IN NEAR/OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS THE LOW LVL JET MIXES TO THE WARM/UNSTABLE WATER SFC. HOWEVER SCEC CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC BNDRY IN THE BAYS BY LATE EVENING. && .LONG-TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...FAVORED GFS 1000-900HPA FRONTOGENETIC VECTORS SHOW THE COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SAGGING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY ENHANCING HELICITY. A 500HPA SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE BRUNT OF THE 700-300HPA DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AFFECTS THE NORTH AND WEST COUNTIES. WILL RANGE POPS FROM CHANCE SOUTHEAST TO LIKELY NORTH AND WEST. ANOTHER 500HPA SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT LAYERED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OCCURS WITH THE NOSE OF A 250HPA JET STREAK ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. WILL GRADE POPS FROM CHANCE SOUTHWEST TO CATEGORICAL NORTHEAST. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING WINDS TO SCEC/LOW-END SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOWS FOR ADEQUATE MOMENTUM TRANSFER. POPS FOR THURSDAY WILL BE GRADED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE WEST TO LIKELY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE 500HPA CLOSED CYCLONE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE CONFIGURED ACCORDING TO THE OUTLINED SYNOPTIC SCENARIO. THE 500HPA CLOSED CYCLONE AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. LINGERING DYNAMICAL/BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW-END CHANCE POPS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA/MWA. WEAK RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A MORE SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY/SATURDAY SO NIL/GHOST POPS CARRIED. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH ONLY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING SUPPORTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SCEC/LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS BUT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THAN RECENTLY DUE TO APPRECIABLE COOLING OF SSTS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FROM THE COASTAL COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE WATERS. WILL RANGE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE WEST TO CHANCE EAST. THE 850HPA COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE(300K/305K) TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST AND LOW-END CHANCE POPS EAST. POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES EXPECTED AS COLD THERMAL ADVECTION/POSITIVE ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WORK TOGETHER. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE GRIDS LOOKED GOOD BUT WILL UNDERCUT MEX MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY GIVEN THE 1000-900HPA THICKNESSES AND PRESENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 67 79 70 79 63 / 70 70 40 60 70 VICTORIA 64 75 64 74 60 / 70 70 60 80 80 LAREDO 65 73 64 74 57 / 70 50 60 40 40 ALICE 67 78 68 80 60 / 50 60 50 60 60 ROCKPORT 68 77 70 77 63 / 70 70 50 70 80 COTULLA 64 70 64 73 55 / 70 70 70 70 50 .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA GMZ250-255-270-275. FFA TXZ242>247 THROUGH 18Z TUE. && $$ 75/JM...LONG-TERM 85/BB...LONG-TERM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 315 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2004 .DISCUSSION... GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. TEMPS/CLOUDS/FOG ARE THE MAIN FCST ISSUES...BUT WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AGAIN AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE PCPN LATER TONIGHT/WED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW CONTINUING OVER NAMERICA. NRN STREAM REMAINS ACROSS CANADA WHILE SRN STREAM FEATURES A TROF OVER THE SRN ROCKIES INTO NW MEXICO. SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED S OF HERE MON IS NOW DROPPING SE THRU LWR MI. NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR UPPER MI IS SHORTWAVE OVER SD/NE WHICH WILL ARRIVE WED MORNING. STRATUS/STRATOCU OVER WI LAST EVENING HAS SPREAD/DEVELOPED N INTO UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT...BUT HAS HAD A HARD TIME OVERSPREADING NW SECTIONS. FCST FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND EVOLUTION OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON TEMPS. NOT SURE WINDS WILL HAVE ENOUGH WRLY COMPONENT TO GET SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FIRMLY INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE DRIER AIR IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY TO THE W AS NOTED ON 00Z KMPX/KINL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...FOG IS NOW DEVELOPING W TOWARD THE DULUTH AREA...AND THIS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN AREA OF STRATUS AS WELL. WILL STAY WITH FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC SKY CONDITIONS OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OR SO OF FCST AREA. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER... WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 40S THERE. IF SKIES DO CLEAR OUT SOME...TEMPS COULD BE 5-8 DEGREES WARMER. OUT W...THINK DRIER AIR WILL EDGE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TO PROVIDE SOME SUN. GOING FCST HAS MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR 50S AND WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THOSE NUMBERS FOR NOW. SHORTWAVE OVER SD/NE SLIDES E TO UPPER MI/WI BY 12Z WED...PROVIDING WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE. MEANWHILE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIR COLUMN OF DRY AIR ABOVE A NEAR SATURATED ENVIRONMENT BLO 4KFT. LIFT OVER THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME DZ TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT FROM W TO E. IF MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER THAN EXPECTED...NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING A MENTION OF SHRA RATHER THAN DZ. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WITH VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS (SFC DWPTS AROUND 40 OR SO) UNDERNEATH RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN. YESTERDAY THOUGHT ETA MOS MINS FOR TONIGHT IN THE LWR 40S WERE TOO HIGH...BUT BASED ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA...THAT DOESN'T LOOK TOO UNREASONABLE NOW. ALL 00Z MOS GUIDANCE HAVE MINS IN THE UPPER 30S/LWR 40S...BUT ETA IS AS HIGH AS 47/48 AT KERY/KISQ (IS IT REALLY MID NOVEMBER). BY THE WAY...RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS RUN IN THE LWR 40S THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HERE AT THE OFFICE. WILL LINGER FOG/DZ THROUGH WED MORNING WITH ONLY LIMITED IMPROVEMENT OF SKY CONDITION FROM W TO E IN THE AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME REMAINS LIGHT...LIMITING ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE W. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...WARM START TO THE DAY WILL STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S/LWR 50S (WARMEST READINGS W WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SUN). ON THU...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ONTARIO IN THE NRN STREAM AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. FORCING REMAINS WELL N OF UPPER MI SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN. THE SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE PRES FIELD OR IN THE WIND FIELDS AS WINDS ARE GENERALLY WNW AHEAD OF FRONT. IN ANY EVENT...CAA IS UNDERWAY THU MORNING (850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO 2C BY 00Z FRI) WITH NEW SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO MN BY THU EVENING. SHOULD BE ABLE TO SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND SKIES SHOULD TREND MOSTLY SUNNY. DESPITE THE COOLING...CAA SHOULD IMPROVE MIXING AND HAVE ACCEPTED MOS NUMBERS IN THE LWR 50S ACROSS THE S. WITH NW FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO GOING FCST FOR FRI/SAT. FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND A TROF WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WITH A MUCH COOLER/UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE AREA. TIMING SHRA INTO THE AREA FRI MIGHT BE A BIT FAST BASED ON 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF. WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH AND WILL LEAVE GOING PCPN CHC FOR FRI AFTN OVER THE W FOR NOW. GENERAL FLAVOR OF THE GOING FCST OVER THE WEEKEND LOOKS FINE... BUT DID BUMP UP POPS A BIT FOR SAT WITH GROWING CONSENSUS OF A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 305 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2004 .SHORT TERM... POTENT SHORT WAVE, MUCH STRONGER THAN WHAT THE MODELS DEPICTED, IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE STATE. PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE STATE INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. 03Z RUC HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THIS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A NARROW SHOT OF THETA-E ADVECTION. BASED ON THE H2O VAPOR LOOP TRENDS, WAVE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE BY 12Z WITH A GOOD DEGREE OF SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN BY THE DRY AIR IN ITS WAKE. THEREFORE, WE WILL CARRY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M59 EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN A TRANSITION TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, ENHANCED 3.9U IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS (DESPITE THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR SEEN ON THE H2O VAPOR) EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA, ACROSS MOST OF WISCONSIN AND SPREADING INTO ILLINOIS. LOWERING SUN ANGLE, NOT MUCH MIXING BELOW THE INCREASING INVERSION BELOW 800MBS, WOULD EXPECT OUR SILVER SKY TO PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ON MONDAY PER TRAJECTORY FORECASTS THAT ORIGINATE FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS, HAD A TOUGH TIME CLIMBING MUCH ABOVE 50F AND WOULD EXPECT MORE-OR-LESS THE SAME HERE TODAY. && .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE UPPER LOW OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALTHOUGH RECENT FIXES SUGGEST THIS LOW IS FINALLY TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT "FEELS" THE AFFECTS OF THE STRONG PACIFIC JET RACING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE INFAMOUS PINEAPPLE CONNECTION (MOISTURE TRAILING FROM HAWAII) IS EVIDENT AS MOISTURE EXTENDS WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND HUDSON BAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER SHORT WAVE HAS EMERGED OUT OF THAT UPPER LOW AND IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS SYSTEM IS BETWEEN THE PACIFIC JET AND DIVERGENCE REGION OF THE UPPER LOW AND WOULD EXPECT THIS WAVE TO BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER WITH TIME. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS BETWEEN 0.75-1.00" OVER IOWA/MISSOURI WHICH IS >200% OF NORMAL! AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE (ALBEIT, A BIT TARNISHED) WAS CENTERED OVER OHIO...1033MBS... AND INCREASING GRADIENT OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION WITH DEEPENING LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PACIFIC JET. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND BRING AN END TO OUR SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETTLES OVERHEAD. EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK UNDER THE INVERSION WILL BE AROUND AND WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE MET/S AND CLOSER TO THE MAV/S. TONIGHT... WAVE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TRACKS TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. THIS SETS UP A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO BRING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG. HOWEVER, WITH THE GRADIENT A LITTLE BIT TIGHT, DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY (IE 1/4 MILE) BUT A 1-2MI WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY ON THEN AS WARM ADVECTION REGIME KICKS IN, EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY CLIMB OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY... EXCELLENT SHOT OF THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG WITH MODEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE WAVE FAVORING THE UKMET, WOULD BRING IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE CWA. WITH THE FASTER TIMING, WE WILL TAYLOR BACK THE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-500MBS SHOULD INHIBIT ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE PRECIP. HOWEVER, WEAK SURFACE TROF LAGS BEHIND AND WITH HIGH MEAN MIXING RATIOS IN PLACE OF 8-9 G/KG IN THE LOWEST 5K FEET AND INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES, THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE MIXED IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER, WE WILL SHAVE OFF A COUPLE DEGREES FROM MACHINE NUMBERS WITH HIGHS AOA 57F. WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WEAK SURFACE TROF EXITS TO OUR EAST WITH UPSTREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND BECOME ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION. THE IMPACT FOR US, INITIALLY, WILL BE MINIMAL. WE WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH FROPA, BUT QUICKLY BE REPLACED WITH MOISTURE AT AND ABOVE 500MBS WITH AN AREA OF CONFLUENCE ALONG THE I-80 STRETCH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OPENS UP. THURSDAY... IT WILL BE RACE BETWEEN WAVES WITH PACIFIC JET BECOMING DISCONNECTED AS SHORT WAVE RACES ACROSS CANADA AIDING WITH LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE OPEN WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES. THE AREA OF CONFLUENCE WILL BE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE WITH DPROG/DT FROM THE GFS/UKMET SUGGESTING THE AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER IN LATER RUNS. NEVERTHELESS, A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LAKES WITH SOME SUNSHINE TO OUR NORTH AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE BORDER. ANOTHER PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY COMES IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING A VARIETY DEGREES OF INTENSITY AND HOW IT ABSORBS THE RESIDUALS OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LARGE CANADIAN HIGH WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH (1030MBS) THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. EVENTUALLY, PER THE GFS/CANADIAN, SOUTHERN WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED WITH THE APPROACH OF PACIFIC SYSTEM AND BRING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN TO THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A "SLAM DUNK" CASE... EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TO AWAIT FOR GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AND TIGHTENING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEFORE GOING WITH HIGHER POPS. THEREAFTER, A GOOD SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION WITH LAKE EFFECT MACHINE KICKING IN FOR LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING EVEN FURTHER AHEAD INTO THANKSGIVING WEEK, RECENT TRENDS (DPROG/DT) ARE POINTING TOWARD A CHUCK OF ARCTIC AIR DIVING SOUTH WHICH WOULD BE SURE TO BRING ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. THANKS TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING! && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BGM EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 300 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2004 .DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON AREA OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS BEEN SPREADING NWRD TO COVER ALL OF NRN WI AND THE TWIN PORTS AREA IN AREA OF STRONG LOLVL MOISTURE AND TEMP ADVECTION. RUC40 DEPICTS THIS AREA VERY GOOD AND WILL KEEP NRN WI AND SRN TIER OF MN COUNTIES IN LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN EXPECT HI CLOUDS TO TAKE THEIR PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TODAY WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING ABOVE 10C. S/WV APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...NO PCPN FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH WED MORNING STILL EXPECT MILD TEMPS TO CONTINUE AS COLD AIR LAGGING...SO WILL SEE THE COOL DOWN BEGIN THURSDAY. .AVIATION...UPPER TROUGH WILL GLIDE E ACRS NRN MN AND WRN LK SUPERIOR. IFR AND LIFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED THRU EARLY MORNING. ACRS CANADIAN BORDER...LAYERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ALTOCU DECK BETWEEN SCT-BKN090-120...AND A CIRRUS DECK BETWEEN BKN200-250. .DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MN...NONE. WI...NONE. $$ CC/LT mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 401 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2004 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A DRY UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE TODAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR SE SD AND S MN THIS MORNING. ETA40/RUC KEEP HIGHEST 925 RH MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG IN FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE OVERALL PATTERN EXHIBITS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHERN MEXICO....AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND THE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...NOT AFFECTING THE WEATHER MUCH. DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS FOR THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH LATE WED/WED NIGHT BEHIND A SYSTEM PUSHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THE 00Z ETA AND GFS ARE LOOKING RATHER DRY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYING IN NE/IA AND SOUTH...WHILE THE UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. DECIDED TO CLEAR PRECIP OUT FROM THE GRIDS FOR THU/THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS WE SPEAK...THE NEW 06Z ETA IS BEGINNING TO PROMOTE SOME THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER COLLAB WITH LONG TERM...WILL CONTINUE DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND MENTION SOMETHING FOR FRIDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. HAVE LEANED ON THE GFS THIS PERIOD. THE WAY IT HANDLES THE SPLIT FLOW SEEMS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. MAIN PROBLEM IS HOW THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE HELD A CLOSED LOW AT H5 AND MOVED IT NORTHEAST TO NEAR THIS AREA. LAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE FOLLOWED OLD DGEX SOLUTION OF A WEAKENING WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. ONE DIFFERENCE THIS TIME IS THE NORTHERN H5 WAVE AND SURFACE LOW DO NOT SYNCH UP WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE MOISTURE THAT STREAM NORTH WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL NOT REACH THIS AREA AND WILL MOVE EAST BEFORE THE NORTHERN LOW CAN TAP IT. THE 06Z ETA SUGGESTS A MUCH SHARPER 70H TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA IN THE 12-18Z FRIDAY PERIOD. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY POPS IN THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THIS AREA. TEMPERATURE GRIDS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ KNUTSVIG/KEEFE sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO 845 AM MST TUE NOV 16 2004 .DISCUSSION...LIGHT PCPN ALREADY OCCURRING IN OUR NRN AND WRN ZONES THIS MORNING NEAR THE WEAK EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. CURRENT POPS AS WELL AS MOS ARE VERY LOW...TOO LOW IN THIS CASE...AS MYL HAS ALREADY MEASURED THIS MORNING AND ONO MIGHT SOON ACCORDING TO RADAR INDICATIONS. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE POPS FOR TODAY...BUT ACTUAL PCPN WILL BE VERY LIGHT...TEXT WILL CONTAIN THE WORD SPRINKLES. LATEST GFS...06Z CYCLE...SHOWED RH AND UVV COMBINATION THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE POSITIONED NE-SW ACROSS IDAHO ZONES. LATEST ETA IS RELATIVELY WEAKER. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AT BAKER CITY AND BURNS OREGON AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WA-OREGON COAST 1-2 AM SIGNALED THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO EASTERN OREGON. BY 18Z THE RUC/ETA/GFS BRING THE UPPER SUPPORT THROUGH MOST OF SE OREGON WITH THE FRONT NEAR BOISE THEN BY 00Z...WX MODELS SHOW THE WELL DEFINED THETA-E RIDGE FROM N CA THROUGH N NV INTO S-CENTRAL ID LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRES AND WESTERLY FLOW OVER SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON AND THE FRONT NEAR OR EAST OF TWIN FALLS. COLD FRONT TO BRIEFLY BREAK INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO MOS. UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEAK/SPLITTY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER IDAHO AS A WAVE ON THE FRONT OFF THE CA COAST REMAINS TO OUR S WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING /NICELY ON SATELLITE/ OFF THE SW CANADA COAST AS OF 2 AM RIPS THROUGH B.C. TODAY. PARTIAL CLEARING AND WARMING WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE PROFILE MIXED AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE CROPPING UP WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM OUT NEAR 40N 160W. SFC PRES REMAIN WEAK...AROUND 1016MB PER 6Z SHIP REPORTS /DINJ-MXBC6/ HOWEVER 6HR VT 06Z GFS AND 0HR VT 6Z SFC ARE WAY UNDERDONE AT 1024MB+ NEAR LOW. ALSO THE 250 MB WIND SPEEDS WITH ASSOCIATED JET TO ITS N SEEM UNDERDONE PER 00Z SATELLITE ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 150KTS NEAR 43N 160W BUT 6Z FCST 250MB JET CORE 110KTS. THE SYSTEM IS POISED TO DEVELOP AND STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES ENE TO OFF THE PACNW COAST WEDNESDAY. BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR SYSTEM COULD SLOW WAY DOWN AND DEEPEN MORE DRAMATICALLY THAN CURRENT FCSTS INDICATE ESPECIALLY IF STRONG JET SUPPORT IS RIGHT. FCST UNCERTAINTY ALSO SHOWS IN 18Z VS 00Z H5 LOW PSN AS 00Z ETA IS NOW FURTHER N SIMILAR TO 18-00Z GFS BUT UNLIKE THE EARLIER UK/EC AND NCEP MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING SHIP REPORTS AND LATER OBS/FACTS FOR THIS SYSTEM WHICH WE CURRENTLY TRACK THROUGH ID ON THURSDAY. LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WE ARE STAYING WITH THE IDEA OF A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OUR ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD PUTTING US UNDER A RATHER STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSELY BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND RISING HEIGHTS OVER US SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BACKING UP A BIT THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE MODELS TO WANT TO BRING A COUPLE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES DOWN ACROSS OUR ZONES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BUT DUE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE WE WILL DOWNPLAY THESE. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF 24 HOURS OR MORE AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AS WELL AS RUN TO RUN WITH THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER IN THE BIG PICTURE AS SOON AS THE INITIAL TROUGH FROM THE WEST PASSES BY FRIDAY THE TURN OF FLOW INTO THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANGE TO A DRIER COOLER PATTERN. WARMING ALOFT ACCOMPANIED BY AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE HIGH WILL RE-ESTABLISH OUR INVERSION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE A DRIER AIRMASS THAN WAS IN PLACE FOR OUR MOST RECENT INVERSION SO WE WILL LIKELY ESCAPE THE VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS. HENCE TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A PLUNGE ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT DUE TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS WELL AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE COOLER MEX MIN TEMP FORECASTS LOOK BETTER FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ DISVUSSION........LC PREV SHORT TERM..VJM PREV LONG TERM...JT id AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO 315 AM MST TUE NOV 16 2004 .SHORT TERM...FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AT BAKER CITY AND BURNS OREGON AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WA-OREGON COAST 1-2 AM SIGNALED THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO EASTERN OREGON. BY 18Z THE RUC/ETA/GFS BRING THE UPPER SUPPORT THROUGH MOST OF SE OREGON WITH THE FRONT NEAR BOISE THEN BY 00Z...WX MODELS SHOW THE WELL DEFINED THETA-E RIDGE FROM N CA THROUGH N NV INTO S-CENTRAL ID LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRES AND WESTERLY FLOW OVER SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON AND THE FRONT NEAR OR EAST OF TWIN FALLS. COLD FRONT TO BRIEFLY BREAK INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO MOS. UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEAK/SPLITTY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER IDAHO AS A WAVE ON THE FRONT OFF THE CA COAST REMAINS TO OUR S WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING /NICELY ON SATELLITE/ OFF THE SW CANADA COAST AS OF 2 AM RIPS THROUGH B.C. TODAY. PARTIAL CLEARING AND WARMING WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE PROFILE MIXED AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE CROPPING UP WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM OUT NEAR 40N 160W. SFC PRES REMAIN WEAK...AROUND 1016MB PER 6Z SHIP REPORTS /DINJ-MXBC6/ HOWEVER 6HR VT 06Z GFS AND 0HR VT 6Z SFC ARE WAY UNDERDONE AT 1024MB+ NEAR LOW. ALSO THE 250 MB WIND SPEEDS WITH ASSOCIATED JET TO ITS N SEEM UNDERDONE PER 00Z SATELLITE ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 150KTS NEAR 43N 160W BUT 6Z FCST 250MB JET CORE 110KTS. THE SYSTEM IS POISED TO DEVELOP AND STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES ENE TO OFF THE PACNW COAST WEDNESDAY. BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR SYSTEM COULD SLOW WAY DOWN AND DEEPEN MORE DRAMATICALLY THAN CURRENT FCSTS INDICATE ESPECIALLY IF STRONG JET SUPPORT IS RIGHT. FCST UNCERTAINTY ALSO SHOWS IN 18Z VS 00Z H5 LOW PSN AS 00Z ETA IS NOW FURTHER N SIMILAR TO 18-00Z GFS BUT UNLIKE THE EARLIER UK/EC AND NCEP MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING SHIP REPORTS AND LATER OBS/FACTS FOR THIS SYSTEM WHICH WE CURRENTLY TRACK THROUGH ID ON THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WE ARE STAYING WITH THE IDEA OF A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OUR ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD PUTTING US UNDER A RATHER STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSELY BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND RISING HEIGHTS OVER US SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BACKING UP A BIT THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE MODELS TO WANT TO BRING A COUPLE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES DOWN ACROSS OUR ZONES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BUT DUE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE WE WILL DOWNPLAY THESE. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF 24 HOURS OR MORE AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AS WELL AS RUN TO RUN WITH THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER IN THE BIG PICTURE AS SOON AS THE INITIAL TROUGH FROM THE WEST PASSES BY FRIDAY THE TURN OF FLOW INTO THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANGE TO A DRIER COOLER PATTERN. WARMING ALOFT ACCOMPANIED BY AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE HIGH WILL RE-ESTABLISH OUR INVERSION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE A DRIER AIRMASS THAN WAS IN PLACE FOR OUR MOST RECENT INVERSION SO WE WILL LIKELY ESCAPE THE VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS. HENCE TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A PLUNGE ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT DUE TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS WELL AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE COOLER MEX MIN TEMP FORECASTS LOOK BETTER FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. WEATHER.GOV/BOISE && $$ SHORT TERM..VJM LONG TERM...JT id AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1107 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2004 .UPDATE... MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...SHOULD BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWING LOTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SPREADING INTO AREA... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE MOUNTAINS AT THE MOMENT. RUC AND ETA T-SECTIONS INDICATE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. WILL UPDATE TO GO MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH...MENTION A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE...LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY. RAISED DEWPOINTS GRIDS SLIGHTLY DUE TO CURRENT VALUES. .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ AWP sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 945 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2004 .DISCUSSION...RUC 1000-500MB WIND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ADVECT TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST TX AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH/LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO. IN ADDITION...200MB WIND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A 200MB JET MOVING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...12Z BRO SOUNDING INDICATES AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDEX NEAR -7 AND CAPE NEAR 3900 J/KG. THIS DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION WHICH DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST TX INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AS WELL AS ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE. WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO REMOVE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCREASE POPS AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS SOUTH TX IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY AND TONIGHT SO WILL GO AHEAD AND WORD STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SEVERE TONIGHT. && .MARINE...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS AND A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GULF ARE GENERATING MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SEAS INCREASED THIS MORNING...BUT NOT BECAUSE OF LOCAL WIND/WAVE ACTION. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LONG-PERIOD EAST SWELL THAT CROSSED THE GULF FROM EAST TO WEST. WAVEWATCH III MODEL DATA FOR BUOY 02 SUGGESTS THAT THE SWELL WILL INCREASE A FOOT OR TWO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER TEXAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED...POSSIBLY DENSE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT HARLINGEN...AND WILL BE THE OTHER MAIN AVIATION HAZARD TO CONTEND WITH BESIDES SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS. && .PREV DISCUSSION...WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW NOW DIMINISHING...THE NEXT METEOROLOGICAL FEATURE TO AFFECT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE A MID LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST FROM MEXICO INTO ARIZONA TODAY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. THE 5H LOW DOES HAVE SOME JET SUPPORT NOW...BUT THAT ENERGY WILL WEAKEN SOME...THOUGH THE LEFT EXIT REGION COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO MID LEVEL LIFT OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS THE LOW OPENS UP INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL BE SHARP ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION FROM THE BIG BEND SOUTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK IS SUGGESTED FOR MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS WITH SOME STRONGER OR MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN MESOSCALE DYNAMICS...BUT LESS THAN A CATEGORICAL DESIGNATION. THE MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR TONIGHT...HOLDING MOST PRECIP OFF UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL CARRY SCATTERED IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT NONETHELESS. COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AS JUST ENOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING 5H FEATURE...BUT TEMPS OVERALL WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. COOLER TEMPS YET...WHICH WILL BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE NEXT SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 61/69/VEGA tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 236 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2004 .SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO AND THE SWRN U.S. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE MS VALLEY. A COUPLE OF DECENT SHORT WAVES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS SRN MN AND THE VIRGINIAS. LOCALLY, A PLEASANT AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE SE PORTION OF THE NATION. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THU. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS TX WED INTO THU WHILE GRADUALLY OPENING UP. THIS LOW WILL MAINLY IMPACT OUR WX IN THE LONG TERM (SEE BELOW). SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SOMEWHAT ALLOWING US TO DECOUPLE. THIS WILL SET UP RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASON NORMS. NO POPS WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH THU. .LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH TUE. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE LATEST GFS RUN ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MOISTURE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY (THE DAY OF THE FSU-UF GAME) A BIT TRICKY. GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR THE GFS TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES RECENTLY...HAVE DECIDED TO ONLY INCREASE POPS TO 30 PERCENT IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO 40 PERCENT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRYER AND COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SETTLED BACK INTO THE CAUTION RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AND DO NOT PLAN ANY HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. ENE WINDS WILL VEER TO SE BY FRI AND THEN S FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. && .FIRE WEATHER...IT'S LOOKING LIKE TODAY'S RED FLAG EVENT MIGHT BE A BUST. WE PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE WATCH FOR TOMORROW FOR ALL BUT OUR PANHANDLE COASTAL COUNTIES, SINCE DURATIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE A MARGINAL 4 HOURS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 41 73 44 74 / 00 00 00 00 PFN 49 73 51 74 / 00 00 00 00 DHN 46 70 50 72 / 00 00 00 00 ABY 41 71 45 73 / 00 00 00 00 VLD 41 72 44 74 / 00 00 00 00 CTY 43 73 45 76 / 00 00 00 00 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WED AFTN ALL BUT FLZ12-14-15. && $$ SHORT TERM...WOOL/18 LONG TERM...SHAFER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1150 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2004 .UPDATE... THE DRIZZLE HAS TAPERED OFF...LEAVING BEHIND SOME FOG. CONDITIONS AS OF 11 AM SHOWED DENSE FOG AT RQB AND CAD. LATELY SBN HAS IMPROVED WITH THE VISIBILITIES...NOW GREATER THAN 6 MILES. THE LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MENTION SOME FOG FOR THE AFTERNOON UP NORTH...MAINLY ALONG ROUTE 10....WHERE I ALSO LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON A COUPLE OF DEGREES. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MJS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 338 PM CST TUE NOV 16 2004 ...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES... .DISCUSSION... FIRST DAY BACK WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE GIVEN IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TIMING ISSUES ARISE. THE ENSEMBLES PUSH FOR SLOWER TRANSITION OF FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM WITH 12Z RUNS MORE SOUTH WITH PRECIP AREA WED INTO THU. 18Z RUC DATA NOW SHOWS FRONT THAT WAS TO BE SE OF FORECAST AREA NOW HANGING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL IMPACT CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WITH AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR TO SEE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND ADJUSTED GRIDS ACCORDING TO 18Z RUC DATA. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD DEVELOP NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR FRONTAL POSITION WITH LESS CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SE HALF OF CWA IF FRONT CLEARS CWA. DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL POSITION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE MAY BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA. BLENDED WITH ADJACENT OFFICES TRENDING TOWARD LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTH. HOWEVER DEFORMATION FIELD THAT FORMS AND POTENTIAL SLOWER MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS MAY GENERATE HIGHER POPS IN NEXT RUN. TEMPERATURES TO BE MILD THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN AS STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES EAST FRIDAY MORNING A DOWNWARD SPIRAL IN TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ TLK ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1146 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2004 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS/PFM ARE OUT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN TEMP AND SKY FIELDS. STRATUS WILL DEFINITELY BE THE DECIDING FACTOR ON TEMPS TODAY AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTING TO SHOW A CLEARER PICTURE ON HOW SKY COVER WILL UNFOLD. SEEING TWO AREAS OF CLEARING...IN THE WEST ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND TO THE SOUTH WHERE ATMOSPHERE IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT. WITH SUCH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD NOT TOTALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE EAST. BUMPED UP HIGHS ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WERE BEST CLEARING IS OCCURRING AND MAINLY WENT WITH RUC20 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS IN AREAS THAT WILL SEE A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ JRM sd