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United States
U.S. sugar production in 2000/01 is forecast at 8.2 million tons, a decrease of 1 percent from the preceding year. The decrease in production is due to a 5 percent decrease in sugar processed from sugarbeets, though sugar produced from sugarcane is projected to increase 5 percent from last year. The revised 1999/00 outturn is set at 8.2 million tons.
U.S. exports in 2000/01 are forecast at 159,000 tons, down 24 percent from last season. Major U.S. export markets are Canada, Mexico, and Jamaica. For fiscal year 2000, the U.S. Trade Representative has allocated 1.14 million tons of raw sugar imports under the raw sugar tariff rate quota (TRQ).
Mexico’s 2000/01 sugar production forecast is expected to total 5.1 million tons, up slightly from last season and 2 percent above the1998/99 output. The forecast is based on the relatively good weather experienced during the growing season, but also takes into account the drier than normal weather in certain growing areas. Additionally, the sugar industry is planning on diverting excess sugar production to ethanol in the 2000/01 season.
Exports in 2000/01 are forecast at 700,000 tons, an increase of 11 percent from the previous year’s revised estimate. The outlook will be affected by actual sugar production, substitution by alternative domestic and imported sweeteners, and the amount of sugar duty-free access to the United States under NAFTA. Most Mexican sugar is exported under the Temporary Export Program (TEP). Under TEP, exporters receive an exemption from the export tax if they pledge to import an equivalent amount of sugar within a year when there is a shortfall in the domestic market.
Cuba
Cuba’s 2000/2001 sugar production is forecast at 4.0 million tons, down slightly from last season, but up 5 percent from the 1998/99 estimate. Output had been steadily increasing since the disastrous crop of 3.2 million tons in 1997/98.
Cuban exports of sugar in 2000/01 are forecast at 3.5 million tons, a 13 percent increase from the revised 1999/2000 shipments. The Cuban Sugar Ministry remains optimistic that production will continue to expand despite low world sugar prices, outdated equipment, poor cultural practices, and the lack of financing.
Brazil’s sugar production in 2000/01 is forecast at 14.5 million tons, a 26 percent decrease from last season’s record output. The projected decrease is due mainly to a lower cane crop caused by dry weather late last year, reduced crop input use, and increased cane utilization for alcohol. Thus, agricultural and industrial yields are expected to be lower than last season. The start of the Center-south harvest has been delayed three weeks to allow the late developing sugarcane a chance to catch up. Total area harvested is forecast to drop by 7 percent. Total cane harvested is expected to reach 280 million tons in 2000/01, a drop of 8 percent, while the amount used for alcohol is forecast to rise from 53 to 61 percent.
Total sugar production in the European Union in 2000/2001 is forecast at 17.0 million tons, 13 percent below last season’s record.. The decrease is attributed to an expected reduction in sugar production quotas. Anticipating a sugar production quota reduction, farmers are expected to decrease sugarbeet overall plantings by 5 percent in the EU in 2000/01. This area reduction, combined with average yields, would produce approximately 17.0 million tons of sugar.
Sugar exports from the EU to third countries in 2000/01 is forecast at 5.2 million tons, down 21 percent or 1.4 million tons. Given the record sugar production crop in 1999/2000, EU sugar producers will be forced to sell large volumes on the world market during the current marketing year, 1999/2000. The 6.6 million ton estimate of sugar exports in the 1999/2000 year will be accounted for by an expected increase in "C-sugar" exports which will not be benefitting from export subsidies. Subsidized exports are also projected to increase in 1999/2000. Record low sugar prices on the international market have resulted in severe financial losses for EU sugar exporters. In the case of subsidized exports, a high export subsidy is needed to bridge the gap between EU sugar prices and prices quoted on the world market.
Russia
Sugar production in Russia in 2000/01 is forecast at 1.5 million tons, up slightly from last year’s outturn. The Russian State Government and sugar beet farmers are collaborating to develop policies and practices that protect the domestic industry. Consequently, for the second consecutive year both the area planted and area harvested are expected to increase. The sugar beet area to be harvested during the 2000/01 marketing year, is projected at 930,000 hectares, or 3 percent more than the 1999/2000 estimate. Besides implementing protective policies, such as seasonal high import tariffs, the Federal government provided seeds for planting, fuel and oil and agricultural chemicals to farmers. Thanks to favorable weather during the October 1999 harvest, sugar beet yields rose to almost 17 MT per hectare from an estimated 13 MT per hectare during the 1998 harvest and a five year average of 16 MT per hectare.
In 2000, Russia will implement high seasonal tariffs on imported raw and white sugar from June 15 to December 16. Market conditions created by this measure are expected to lead to favorable prices for domestic farmers, as the volume of imported raw sugar is expected to fall 20 percent compared to 1999. Russia also plans to implement a tariff rate quota system for imported raw sugar, on January 1, 2001.
Sugar production in the Ukraine in 2000/01 is forecast at 1.8 million tons, up 5 percent from last year and a reversal of a trend in year-to-year decreases beginning in 1995/96. Although most sugar production in 2000/01 will remain concentrated in the public sector, area under sugarbeet cultivation on individual household plots will increase.
Ukraine has changed from being one of the world’s largest sugar producers and exporters at the beginning of the 1990's to a net importer of sugar since 1998/99. Despite attempts by the Ukraine Government to make sugarbeet production and refining profitable, Ukraine will not meet increase domestic demand, particularly for the confectionery industry, with current production levels. Ukraine will continue to import raw cane sugar albeit at reduced levels in 2000/01 due to expected higher domestic sugar production and stagnant demand from the confectionery sector. For 2000/01 raw sugar imports are forecast at 300,000 tons.
China
China’s 2000/01 sugar production is forecast at 8 million tons, up 12 percent from last season, but 10 percent less than in 1998/99. The reduction from last season is due to government efforts to decrease the planted area for sugarbeets and sugarcane coupled with a freeze in South China Production of sugar from sugarbeets and sugarcane is forecast to drop substantially this year, leaving China well short of the amount needed to meet domestic demand. Though some increase in imports is likely, most of additional sugar needed is expected to come out of the government’s massive surplus stocks.
India’s sugar production in 2000/01 is forecast at 17.4 million tons, 8 percent less than last season’s record outturn. The expected decrease is attributed to large carryover stocks and delayed payments to farmers. The poor financial condition of many mills due to depressed domestic sugar prices will likely result in farmers diverting more sugarcane to other sweeteners such as Gur and khandsari. Gur production is expected to total 8.2 million tons in 2000/01, up 6 percent from the previous season.
With the tariff increase from 40 percent before February 9, 2000 to currently 60 percent, a countervailing duty of rs. 850/ton, and subjugation of imports to the Sugar control order, no imports are forecast for the balance of marketing year 1999/2000 or in 2000/01.
Australian exports are forecast to remain steady. Exporters are expected to draw from stocks held from the previous season. Stocks had built up to fairly high levels due to the poor market price in the past several years.
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