AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 802 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005 .PUBLIC...PROSPECTS OF STORMS ENDING EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA ARE LOOKING GOOD. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED OVER SE GEORGIA IN PAST COUPLE HOURS AND STEERING FLOW IS NOW PUSHING THEM TO THE NW. BOTH THE RUC AND WRFHOT...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NAM...SHOW A N-S ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT JUST WEST OF THE CWA WHICH IS FARTHER WEST THAN PAST COUPLE NIGHTS. STORMS APPEAR TO BE ENDING OVER WRN HAMILTON AND ECHOLS COUNTIES...WHILE STORMS IN CLINCH CO WILL CONTINUE MOVING NW INTO OUR NWRN ZONES. WILL UPDATE FCST AFTER CONVECTION ENDS TO REMOVE EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. && .MARINE...WINDS ARE RUNNING 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2 FT AT THE BUOYS. MODELS SHOW A SLOW DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE OBS REMAIN IN THIS RANGE...WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR REST OF NIGHT. SELY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE NIGHT OVER THE WATERS. && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ MKT/PC fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 10 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005 ...SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY INLAND... .DISCUSSION... LCL AIRMASS IS PRIMED FOR DIURNAL COVECTION...MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VAULES ACROSS THE PENINSULA ARE 1.8"-2.0". FURTHERMORE...A WEAK WIND PROFILE THROUGH H50 WILL ALLOW THE SEABREEZE TO FORM BY MIDDAY AND BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND. ALSO...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOCAL H50 VORT MAX DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND A LCL H30-H20 SPEED MAX OVER THE SRN PENINSULA GENERATING UPR LVL DIVERGENCE. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN PRODUCE SLOW MOVING STORMS CONTAINING VERY HEAVY RAIN. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SPOTS (MAINLY INTERIOR) WILL PICK UP 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF STREAM IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. ONLY NEED MINOR REFRESHMENT CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST. && .MARINE...STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS MORNING HAS PUT DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST TOWARD THE BREVARD COUNTY COAST. ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES MAY MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND TOGETHER MAY TRIGGER CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE FL PENINSULA WHERE INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH HEATING OF THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTN SOUTH LEG WITH SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3 FEET. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BUT WITH INCREASING MVFR/IFR CONVECTION AFT 17Z. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...IF ONE AFFECTS A TAF SITE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR MORE. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...BRAGAW MARINE...KELLY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1045 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION... MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO LOWER CONVECTION CHANCES TO 30% OVER EASTERN IL WHILE KEEPING 40% WEST OF I-57. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES WITH SOUTH TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. AN MCS SENT A SQUALL LINE SE THROUGH CENTRAL/SE IL BETWEEN 1 AND 7 PM WITH A FEW AREAS OF SEVERE WIND DAMAGE. CONVECTION FROM THIS MCS HAS MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHERN IL...SE MO AND WESTERN KY WITH CLOUD COVER DECREASING OVER CENTRAL IL. ANOTHER MCS WAS OVER EAST KS AND NW MO AND AND DEVELOPING NE INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET. CONVECTION JUST WEST OF KIRKSVILLE MO AND OTTUMA IOWA. SURFACE MAP HAS 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO A 1002 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL KS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AVERAGING A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH FROM MCS OVER CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAS COOLED TEMPS TO AROUND 70F AND A FEW DEGREES FROM THE DEWPOINTS. TEMPS TO SETTLE TOWARD THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND COULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH FAIRLY LIGHT SSE WINDS. RUC SHOWS QPF MOVING INTO NW IL LATER TONIGHT FROM THE IL RIVER NW FROM MCS WEST OF IL WHILE NAM IS FAIRLY DRY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... PROBLEM TODAY IS THE MCS TODAY AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MSAS DATA SHOWS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING MCS. STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPED BEHIND IT. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH BOW ECHO ON FORWARD EDGE OF LINE THAT INTERSECTED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED SOUTH FROM NORTHWEST IL STORMS. NO CHANGES THROUGH FRIDAY...AS FRONT STAYS WEST OF AREA. DID NOT CHANGE POPS AS UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN REGION. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... NO CHANGES IN SITUATION THROUGH MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY, THE GFSLR FINALLY BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT FRONT THROUGH STATE AND INTO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. FOREIGN MODELS ALL DO NOT DRIVE THE FRONT THAT FAR AND WITH BERMUDA HIGH ANCHORED IN SOUTHEAST US, FEEL THE AGGRESIVE FRONTAL MOVEMENT IS WAY OUT OF LINE. THEREFORE MODIFIED WINDS ON TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, PLUS INCREASED THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. $$ GOETSCH/HUETTL il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 300 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION FOR AFTEROON ZONES/GRIDS... FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL CENTER ON SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND THEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABBREVIATED DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MCS WHICH MOVED ACROSS DAKOTAS LAST NIGHT NOW BEGINNING TO TRACK INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING APEX OF BOW ECHO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH HAVE HAD NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MCS. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN PRODUCING RATHER INTENSE OUTFLOWS OF THEIR OWN AND EXPECTING THREATS THIS EVENING TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 14K FEET AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 12K FEET. OTHER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS WITH ANY MESOSCALE ENHANCED WINDS. APPROACHING MCS HAS PRODUCED QUITE A STRONG MESOSCALE PRESSURE PATTERN WITH MESOHIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA ON BACK SIDE OF MESOHIGH. EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS STRONGER WIND FIELD TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS MESOHIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLY STRONGER SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THREAT REFOCUSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL JET. NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PROGRESS THROUGH UPPER LEVEL SWRYLS. STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SO IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH INSTABILITY/MARGINAL SHEAR SCENARIOS. SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS TOWARD BEGINNING/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TIME OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO DAMPEN RIDGE AND FINALLY BRING A SIGNFICANT FROPA TO THE AREA. HAVE RELIED MORE ON 06Z GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE WHICH GETS SOME SUPPORT FROM GEM/ECMWF IN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TUES/WEDS. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES EARLY TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN. NDM && .AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS... ...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS HERE AS TIME IS SHORT DUE TO INCREASING TS ACTIVITY... WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAIN MAIN TAF CONCERNS. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO THE ROCKFORD AREA AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS INITIATED AT 18Z. THE TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED OR IN SMALL CLUSTERS...SO WILL NOT GO PREVAILING TS IN THE TAFS INITIALLY...VCTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. WINDS LOOKING TO GO GUSTY SW TO W FOR A COUPLE HOURS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY BEFORE SETTING BACK TO GENERALLY SOUTHERLY. EXCEPT INVOF TS...CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET AND AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD GO NEAR CALM...AND WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOOKING FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS PUSHED A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 88D...LOCAL MESONET AND METARS PLACING WIND SHIFT ROUGHLY FROM NORTH OF KRFD...TO NEAR KPWK...TO ABOUT THE FORMER KCGX. BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED AND MAY BE DRIFTING BACK NORTH...WITH SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO WIND FIELD AT ALL TAF SITES. QUESTION ARISES WITH WEAK GRADIENT AND CONVECTIVELY DISTURBED LIGHT WIND FIELD THIS MORNING AS TO WHETHER LAKE BREEZE/OUTFLOW WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. NAM/GFS/RUC ALL INDICATE 950 HPA WINDS FROM SOUTH AT 10-14 KTS TODAY...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST WEAK SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE INTO LAKE CO IL...BUT REMAINING EAST OF KORD/KMDW. SOME RECOVERY TO SOUTH FLOW BEHIND OUTFLOW ALREADY...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF NO LAKE BREEZE INTO KORD/KMDW TODAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AIRMASS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE TODAY...WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN MID 60S AGAIN YIELDING SBCAPES IN 1800-2300 J/KG RANGE AND LITTLE/NO CIN INDICATED BY FCST SOUNDINGS AFTER 18Z OR SO. INITIALLY...LARGER SCALE FORCING APPEARS MARGINAL WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS IL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH A COUPLE OF OTHER WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACHING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OTHER CONCERN IS LINEAR MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MN/IA THIS MORNING. BEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINS TO OUR WEST OVER IA THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TSTMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NRN IL AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. MESO-ETA (NAM) AND UCAR 4KM WRF BOTH BRING THIS ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST ACROSS FCST AREA THIS AFTN...THOUGH BOTH APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER THAN CURRENT 88-D MOSAIC SHOWS. CONSIDERING EXPECTED INSTABILITY...NAM/WRF SIGNALS AND POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOCUS FROM BOTH ADVANCING MCS AND AFOREMENTIONED NE IL REMNANT...WILL INDICATE VCTS IN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...AS EARLY AS 17Z AT KRFD BASED ON MN MCS...AND AFTER 20Z CHI AREA TERMS FOR PEAK DIURNAL HEATING HOURS. DAY SHIFT CAN FINE TUNE TIMING AND UPGRADE TO TEMPO OR PREVAILING IF NEEDED. EXPECTING ANY ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH/MOVE SOUTH/EAST OF TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS LLJ REFOCUSES NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE PLAINS TO OUR WEST. LIGHT WIND FIELD...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND POTENTIAL FOR WET GROUND FROM ANY AFTN TSTMS SUGGESTS MORE OF A HZ POSSIBILITY TNGT AND HAVE HINTED AT. RATZER && .LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 647 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005 .AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS... WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAIN MAIN TAF CONCERNS. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO THE ROCKFORD AREA AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS INITIATED AT 18Z. THE TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED OR IN SMALL CLUSTERS...SO WILL NOT GO PREVAILING TS IN THE TAFS INITIALLY...VCTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. WINDS LOOKING TO GO GUSTY SW TO W FOR A COUPLE HOURS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY BEFORE SETTING BACK TO GENERALLY SOUTHERLY. EXCEPT INVOF TS...CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET AND AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD GO NEAR CALM...AND WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOOKING FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. ...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS HERE AS TIME IS SHORT DUE TO INCREASING TS ACTIVITY... CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS PUSHED A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 88D...LOCAL MESONET AND METARS PLACING WIND SHIFT ROUGHLY FROM NORTH OF KRFD...TO NEAR KPWK...TO ABOUT THE FORMER KCGX. BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED AND MAY BE DRIFTING BACK NORTH...WITH SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO WIND FIELD AT ALL TAF SITES. QUESTION ARISES WITH WEAK GRADIENT AND CONVECTIVELY DISTURBED LIGHT WIND FIELD THIS MORNING AS TO WHETHER LAKE BREEZE/OUTFLOW WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. NAM/GFS/RUC ALL INDICATE 950 HPA WINDS FROM SOUTH AT 10-14 KTS TODAY...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST WEAK SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE INTO LAKE CO IL...BUT REMAINING EAST OF KORD/KMDW. SOME RECOVERY TO SOUTH FLOW BEHIND OUTFLOW ALREADY...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF NO LAKE BREEZE INTO KORD/KMDW TODAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AIRMASS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE TODAY...WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN MID 60S AGAIN YIELDING SBCAPES IN 1800-2300 J/KG RANGE AND LITTLE/NO CIN INDICATED BY FCST SOUNDINGS AFTER 18Z OR SO. INITIALLY...LARGER SCALE FORCING APPEARS MARGINAL WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS IL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH A COUPLE OF OTHER WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACHING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OTHER CONCERN IS LINEAR MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MN/IA THIS MORNING. BEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINS TO OUR WEST OVER IA THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TSTMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NRN IL AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. MESO-ETA (NAM) AND UCAR 4KM WRF BOTH BRING THIS ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST ACROSS FCST AREA THIS AFTN...THOUGH BOTH APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER THAN CURRENT 88-D MOSAIC SHOWS. CONSIDERING EXPECTED INSTABILITY...NAM/WRF SIGNALS AND POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOCUS FROM BOTH ADVANCING MCS AND AFOREMENTIONED NE IL REMNANT...WILL INDICATE VCTS IN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...AS EARLY AS 17Z AT KRFD BASED ON MN MCS...AND AFTER 20Z CHI AREA TERMS FOR PEAK DIURNAL HEATING HOURS. DAY SHIFT CAN FINE TUNE TIMING AND UPGRADE TO TEMPO OR PREVAILING IF NEEDED. EXPECTING ANY ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH/MOVE SOUTH/EAST OF TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS LLJ REFOCUSES NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE PLAINS TO OUR WEST. LIGHT WIND FIELD...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND POTENTIAL FOR WET GROUND FROM ANY AFTN TSTMS SUGGESTS MORE OF A HZ POSSIBILITY TNGT AND HAVE HINTED AT. RATZER && .DISCUSSION FOR MORNING ZONES/GRIDS... CONVECTION FIRED UP OVER NW IN AND LOWER MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MOVING E. EARLIER MCS OVER NRN WIS HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT FOR SMALL CLUSTER OF ACTIVE STORMS WEST CENTRAL WIS. HOWEVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEEN IN MKX RADAR AND SFC OBS...DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD NRN IL. LATEST RUC TRIES TO WASH THIS OUT RATHER QUICKLY AND SLY FLOW TAKES OVER AGAIN. FEW STORMS TRYING TO FORM ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY BUT SEEM TO BE DYING AS QUICKLY AS THEY FORM. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE MORNING. AMS SHOULD HEAT UP INTO LOWER 90S AGAIN TODAY WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN MID 60S. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR SCENARIO TO TUES WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...WEAK SHEAR AND NO ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISM. EXPECT DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS AGAIN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD LIMIT LAKE BREEZE TO THE NORTH SHORE AREA OF IL SIMILAR TO TUES...ALTHOUGH WIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE LAKE BREEZE SOMEWHAT. THE LAKE BREEZE/REMNANTS OF WIS OUTFLOW COULD BE FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. TRAILING VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH NEB SQUALL LINE COULD MOVE ACROSS IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE TO ENHANCE TSTM CHANCES AS WELL. EXPECT STORM CHANCES TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER DARK AS ACTION REFOCUSES OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. THEN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. GFS APPEARS TO BE THROWING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INTO THE MIX THIS WEEKEND...MOVING IT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE LOW MS VLY AND TN VLY. WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES GOING THROUGH MON. PATTERN SHIFT MON NIGHT/TUES STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH DRYING FOR MID WEEK. ALLSOPP && .LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1130 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED A QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO THE ZFP TO DROP MAX TEMPS JUST A BIT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE INCOMING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/CLOUD COVER MAY CAP TEMPS OFF IN THE UPPER 80S... PIA MAY JUST SQUEAK ABOVE THE 90 MARK IN TIME THOUGH. EXITING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO HELPING TO KICK OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EAST THIS MORNING WHERE... LIKE YESTERDAY... THERE'S A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE. RUC H85 ANALYSIS SHOWS THETA-E RIDGING IN TWO AREAS... OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA INTO INDIANA WHERE EXITING S/W TROF HAS AIDED IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT... THE SECOND AREA OVER EASTERN IOWA AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS WITH PERHAPS SOME SFC MOISTURE POOLING OCCURRING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE THE CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOKS PROMISING WITH MCS OVER EASTERN IA APPEARING TO BE STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME... 850 DEWPOINT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT "DRY POCKET" OVER ILLINOIS... WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER IOWA. WILL KEEP THE 40 POPS IN FOR THE UPDATE... THOUGHT IS THAT THE MCS OVER IOWA MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR TO THE EAST AND MAY INDEED TRY TO PROPAGATE OR REDEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER MISSOURI. THINK THE 40 POPS WILL BE REPRESENTATIVE OF A MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO ANY PRECIP THAT MOVES IN OR DEVELOPS TODAY. IN SPITE OF THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR... WE WILL STILL BE MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE SO CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO THE SW...WITH ONLY THE OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE LAST FEW SCANS. MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NE AND NW. MCS IN THE NW SEEMS TO HAVE ADDED A MORE SERLY COMPONENT IN THE LAST HOUR. PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN THE REGION WITH DPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN CWA...WITH LOW 70S NOT FAR TO THE S. CIRRUS OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING KEPT THE TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S. PROFILER DATA SHOWING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVER THE REGION...AND THE BACK END OF CLOUDS REMAINING LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN THE CURRENT SHOWERS IN THE SRN HALF OF CWA WILL END...AND OFF AND ON PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH DAY 7. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SRLY FLOW BRINGS UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...H85 TEMPS STILL READING +18C. NEW TWIST TODAY IS THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. 4000+ J/KG CAPE ACROSS THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP IN PLACE. MCS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVING EWD AT A GOOD CLIP. 4KM NESTED WRF SHOWING THE PROPAGATION OF A LINE OF THUNDER SW OF THE CURRENT TAIL IN NERN NEBRASKA...MOVING TO THE NWRN PORTION OF IL BY THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO THE WNW WOULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK PAINTED ACROSS NW HALF OF CWA...SUSPECT THAT COULD GROW TO COVER ENTIRE CWA LATER IN THE MORNING...DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OF THE 12Z FLIGHTS. KEPT 40 POPS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. TOMORROW...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CAPE. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW/IF TURNING OVER THE ATMOSPHERE AFFECTS THE FORECAST. STILL THINK THAT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONTS WILL REMAIN TO THE N AND W OF THE CWA...STALLED OUT IN SWRLY FLOW. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FRONTAL BOUNDARIES STAY TO THE N AND W THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS THE RULE. KEEPING THE SWRLY FLOW GOING ALOFT...AND A H5 RIDGE DOMINATING THE SERN CONUS. SHORTWAVES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE PLAINS WILL BE ESSENTIAL FOR DEVIATING FROM A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN. KEEP THE 30 POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DRY OUT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY...AND WILL WATCH FOR TRIGGERS. MODELS STILL BRINGING UP TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO WATCH THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR REGION. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. $$ HARDIMAN/HJS il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 630 AM EST WED JUN 8 2005 .AVIATION... SATELLITE AND KIWX RADAR DATA HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING TO THE SW OF THE FCST AREA ACRS E CNTRL ILLINOIS. THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST UNSTABLE PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WEAK S/WVS PASSING THROUGH. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE CONVECTION OVER E CNTRL ILLINOIS WAS BEING CAUSED BY A WEAK S/WV. RUC40 AND NAM PIVOT THIS FEATURE INTO INDIANA BY 21Z. THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH DAY TIME HEATING...WILL RESULT IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER NRN INDIANA. WITH THE LACK OF A DISCERNIBLE LOW LVL FOCUSING MECHANISM AND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW ALOFT...AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH SLOW MOVEMENT...AND WIDELY SCATTERED IN AREAL COVERAGE (DISORGANIZED). THUS...WILL ONLY INDICATE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE TAFS WITH THE CB DESCRIPTOR ATTM. THE BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY COME WITH A S/WV AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION CURRENTLY GOING ON ACRS MN...WRN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN IOWA. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BY LATE AFTN (21Z). THUS...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REFIRE THERE...SAGGING ESE INTO THE WRN CWFA BY EVENING. SINCE THIS IS BEYOND THE 12 HOUR TIME FRAME...CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS POINT AS TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION...AND THUS DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CB DESCRIPTOR IN THE TAFS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS (00Z-03Z) TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THEREAFTER...CONVECTION SHOULD DWINDLE OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION REFIRING AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A WARM ...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACRS THE REGION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. KIWX RADAR THIS MORNING CONTINUED TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRAZING THE FAR NRN CWFA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN RESPONSE TO SFC TO 925 MB TROF AXIS FROM SRN MICHIGAN INTO LAKE MICHIGAN...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK UPR LVL SHEAR VORTICITY. THE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH THE TROF AXIS IS FCST TO DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING...AND THUS THE CONVECTION SHOULD DO ALSO. HOWEVER...SINCE ZONES HAVE TO BE ISSUED ATTM...WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 30 POP ACRS SRN MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN INDIANA FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER...SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WARM...HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. NAM DEPICTS A WEAK H5 TROF ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE RESULTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER IOWA AND MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. SBCAPES ARE FCST TO BE OVER 3000 J/KG BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH THE WEAK FEATURE ALOFT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO A LACK OF LOW LVL FORCING/FOCUSING MECHANISMS. FOR TONIGHT...THE FCST CONCERN WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING CONVECTION ACRS MN...SD...AND NW IOWA. THE NAM TRIES TO PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE...BRINGING IT INTO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTN HOURS. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ...AND ITS ASSOCD WEAK S/WV ALOFT...SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS IN THE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD THEN PROPAGATE INTO THE WRN CWFA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...HAVE RAISED POPS IN THE WEST TO 40 PERCENT...WHILE MAINTAINING A 30 POP ELSEWHERE. AS FOR TEMPS...MAV/MET GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY CLOSE...SO NOT MUCH WIGGLE ROOM AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 90 TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVERNIGHT. LONG TERM... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EARLY SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE WELL ESTABLISHED QUASI-STATIONARY BERMUDA HIGH. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR EACH DAY WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH HIGH HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EJECT NUMEROUS PIECES OF ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL FUEL DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AND ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY WHILE MUCH LESS ORGANIZED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AFFECTS THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT WITH INSTABILITY IN PLACE BUT THERE WILL BE A LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MECHANISM THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND ORGANIZATION WILL BE MODULATED BY MESOSCALE EFFECTS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AS WELL AS ANY LOCAL EFFECTS OR BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP...AND THESE EFFECTS CANNOT BE RESOLVED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINTING THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MAY BREAK DOWN ENOUGH WITH TIME LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH. THIS FRONT HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A CONDUIT FOR CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS MCS MOVING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ONCE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO PRESS SOUTH THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE. MODELS ALSO INCREASE PWAT VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS ALSO THROUGH AN INTERESTING CAVEAT INTO THE MIX AS THE 18Z/07 AND 00Z/08 RUNS BRING THE REMNANTS OF A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF VERIFYING GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT...BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING NONETHELESS. THERE IS NO APPARENT STRONG SIGNAL FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY WEAK WIND FIELDS AND A WARM COLUMN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ANY OF THE DAYS HOWEVER GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...BUT THE BULK OF ALL OF THESE DAYS IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN FREE WITH ONLY PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IN...NONE .MI...NONE .OH...NONE .LK MI...NONE && $$ AVIATION/SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 310 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION... TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAIN CONCERNS. SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THETA E RIDGE ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT OUR AREA. LOW LVL INFLOW NOT ALL THAT HIGH...AND NAM SEEMS UNREASONABLY HIGH WITH QPF. HOWEVER BACKBUILDING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA WITH STRONGER STORMS SEEMS LIKELY...AND WITH EXPECTED RAINS NEAR OR EXCEEDING INDEX VALUES...A FLOOD WATCH SEEMS PRUDENT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY HAVE ACTUALLY TWO EPISODES OF CONVECTION...FIRST WITH BACKBUILDING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...THEN, DEPENDING ON OUTFLOWS FROM THIS CONVECTION...MORE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. RUC SHOWS SRN END OF NORTHEAST EJECTING WAVE PASSING NEAR AREA LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER, FURTHER NORTH IN CWA, AS LOW LVL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST THERE. LOWS TONIGHT LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE...AND WINDS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ANYONE'S GUESS...BUT TRIED TO TREND TOWARD A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. LONGER TERM...LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FEATURES LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. OF COURSE THIS MEANS SEASONALLY STRONG SWLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MONDAY WITH STALLED OUT SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY. GIVEN THIS...EXPECT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT. TIMING OF OF MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVES COMING OUT OF SOUTHWEST TROUGH IS DIFFICULT...PARTICULARLY CONSIDERING RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY SHOWN BY GFS...HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONGER SHEAR MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER THREAT FOR SIG SEVERE. NOT SURPRISINGLY...LONG RANGE MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN IN DIFFERENT WAYS...BUT ALL WOULD INDICATE THAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A DIFFERENT PATTERN WILL SETUP AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABILENE TO MANHATTAN TO HOLTON FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY. && $$ SK/GP ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1018 AM MDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO LOWER MAX TEMPS IN THE HILL CITY/NORTON AREAS. ETA INITIALIZED VERY WELL ON 850 TEMPS...WHICH WERE RUNNING IN THE 14 TO 15 CELSIUS RANGE. WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING...WILL HAVE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS IN THE EAST. ELSEWHERE...SOUNDINGS LOOK A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN BEFORE...BUT THE AIR IS SO DRY IT MAY HEAT UP EASILY...SO DID NOT ADJUST ANYWHERE ELSE. WINDS WERE INITIALLY GUSTY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE GRIDS HANDLED THIS WELL. STILL EXPECT A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS THE DIRECTION SWINGS AROUND TO EASTERLY AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. SHOULD HAVE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS RETURN TO EASTERN COLORADO BY EVENING AND SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINT FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S AND EVEN UPPER 20S ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. THE RUC IS OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF DRYING...BUT AT LEAST HAS THE RIGHT TREND. ETA/GFS DEWPOINTS WERE ENTIRELY TOO HIGH BY ABOUT 15 DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KS...NONE. .NE...NONE. .CO...NONE. && $$ BURKE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 800 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005 .UPDATE...ONE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP FROM EASTERN UPPER ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER. MAIN QUESTIONS FOR REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT CENTERING AROUND RE-DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...FROM JUST SOUTH OF TVC TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. RUC AND 18Z NAM SHOWING ANOTHER PUSH OF JUICY H8-H7 THETA-E AIR WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE WESTERN LAKES AROUND 06Z IN ADVANCE OF TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SURFACED BASED CAPES STILL OVER 1500 J/KG FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE FROM TVC-CAD-HTL. CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES HAVE NO PCPN FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER POPS ENTERING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. I WILL ADD LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH 10 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY...AND THEN LEAVE MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS NEXT SURGE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR SURGES TOWARD WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. I WILL ALSO ADD AREAS OF FOG TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OVER LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY. RECENT SPOTTER REPORTS SHOW SOME PATCHY LAKE FOG DEVELOPING BETWEEN ALPENA AND OSCODA. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES OUT SHORTLY. JK && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005 DISCUSSION...THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IN ALREADY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH H8-H7 LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ROAMING AROUND...AND WEAKENING H8 LLJ (TO 20KTS BY 12Z)...WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SOME SUN TO HELP THINGS HEAT UP DIURNALLY AGAIN. WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST THETA-E AIR MOVING IN OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO 6.5 C/KM AND WEAK SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPPING INTO THE SAME AREA...WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF LAKE BREEZES WILL ALSO SET UP PROVIDING ANOTHER SOURCE OF CONVERGENCE TO HELP FOCUS INITIATION. AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL NOT HAVE AS GOOD A CHANCE...AS WELL AS EASTERN UPPER WHERE DRIER AIR AND A SLIGHT CAP DEVELOPS ALOFT TRIES TO SETTLE IN. NEVERTHELESS...CAN SEE LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING WITH REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SHOWERS. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1600J/KG ACROSS NRN LOWER EAST OF I-75 WITH AROUND 1000J/KG IN EASTERN UPPER (EVEN THE MODIFICATION SEEMS OVERDONE). 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS WEAK WITH 20-25KTS...SO ANY STORMS LOOK TO BE PULSE TYPE AGAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT...AM LOOKING FOR AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT ACROSS NRN LOWER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING. ANOTHER STRONGER SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RETURNS NORTHWARD THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS OUT OVER THE ROCKIES SWINGS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE FRONTAL ZONE LIFTS NORTHWARD...ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. WILL BE KEEPING FOG MENTION OUT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LONGEST FETCH TO ALLOW FOR FOG. FRIDAY ONWARD...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. BETTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN IN THE BETTER SW FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH THETA-E AIR (330K) OVER MUCH..IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO BREAK DOWN INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...SO CANNOT END PRECIP CHANCES. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH THIS TIME AND IS REALLY LOOKING LIKE SUMMER. AN ACTIVE PATTERN...BUT NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. SMD SMD && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 420 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A COUPLET OF LOWS EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWEST FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS RACING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND WESTERN ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN IOWA. A WARM FRONT ALSO STRETCHES OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND RUNS THROUGH WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING OVER SOUTH AND EAST OF FRONTS IN A WATCH BOX OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THEY TRY TO NAVIGATE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RIDGE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. BY SUNRISE. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOCUS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAIN INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. AS IT DOES...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TOGETHER THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED LATE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL SHIFT OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO PLACING NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY GIVE US A BREAK FROM THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DRAWING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL ONTARIO BECOMING MORE EAST WEST ORIENTED. THESE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. K INDEX WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THESE SHOWERS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. GFS/ETA SHOWING TWO JET MAXES OVER THE REGION. ONE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE OTHER OVER ONTARIO. FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN THESE SUGGESTING SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ROCKIES LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG. THE UPPER JET MAX WILL PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND WEAKEN AS ANOTHER JET MAX DEVELOPS OVER EASTERNS DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CLIMB OUT OF EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA DRAGGING THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA. A WARM FRONT LEADING THIS LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER WYOMING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO WISCONSIN...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL HELP GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WYOMING CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS THE WISCONSIN SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE U.P. SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE MID LEVEL CLOSE LOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TOGETHER THESE SHOULD PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TREK INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. GFS IS MOVING THE SURFACE LOW INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE NCEP ENSEMBLE IS FAVORING THE SLOWER SOLUTION. WEAK SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. THE CLOSED LOW WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN U.P. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GOING. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1155 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005 .UPDATE... MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ARE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE/STRENGTH. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF OVER THE NW CONUS WITH A FLAT DOWNSTREAM RDG OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CLOSED H5 LOW/VORT WAS LOCATED OVER WRN ND WHILE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHRTWV FROM DAKOTAS MCS LAST NIGHT...WAS LIFTING NE THROUGH NRN MN. ONGOING MCS AND REMNANTS FROM THE SYSTEM HAS LEFT A CONVOLUTED SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE REGION. SFC LOW PRES REMAINED OVER ND BUT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR OVER THE NW WI LEAVES A LESS CLEAR PICTURE DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IS APPARENT VCNTY OF KGRB WITH 15Z TEMPS TO NEAR 80F AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER E CNTRL WI. RADAR INDICATED DIMINISHING -SHRA OVER W UPR MI AND A SMALL AREA OF SHRA OVER S CNTRL UPR MI SUPPORTED BY 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VIS SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER UPR MI AND UPSTREAM THROUGH NRN WI. POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT HINGES ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND RESULTING DESTABILIZATION. MODIFIED COMBINATION OF OBSERVED AND 12Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT IF WARMING OCCURS WITH TEMP/DEWPOINT TO 79/65 (MOST LIKELY OVER THE SW NEAR THE WI BORDER) CAPE VALUES WOULD CLIMB TO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA ARE RELATIVELY THIN...EXPECT THAT CLEARING/HEATING WILL OCCUR TOO LATE TO BRING ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON FOR HIGHER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SW IF ONLY MODERATE AMOUNT OF HEATING OCCURS WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME AMOUNT OF SFC BASED CINH DEPICTED ON THE SNDGS. WHILE 900-800 SW FLOW OF 25-30 KT IS EXPECTED...WITH MN SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING NE ANY FORCING MECHANISM FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO...ONLY CHANCE SHRA/TSRA MENTIONED OVER THE CWA...SW OF KP59-KISQ. FCST IS IN LINE WITH SHIFT OF SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA TO THE SOUTH OF UPR MI. HOWEVER...IF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURS LOW LEVEL AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WOULD STILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SVR STORM WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND AS THE MAIN THREATS. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1012 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION... REMNANTS OF MRNG DAMAGING MCS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE W CNTRL WI COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN SHUD BE E OF THE FA BY NOON AT THE LATEST. ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF SRN AND CNTRL MN AND W CNTRL WI IS FAIRLY WORKED OVER IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS/DEW POINTS WELL BELOW THE READINGS AT THIS TIME YDAY...CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED ACROSS MOST OF THE FA DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL BOUNDARIES AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW IN N DAKOTA. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH THE 12Z RUC AND THE 12Z WORKSTATION NAM ARE CONSISTENT IN BREAKING OUT PRECIP THRU THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PRIMARILY W CNTRL WI. POTENTIAL TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF...AS WELL AS VORT MAX FCST TO STRENGTHEN OVER CNTRL MN THIS AFTN AND PUSH EWRD. RETOOLED THE POP/WX CONFIGURATIONS THRU TONIGHT TO CAPTURE THIS THINKING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING MID EVENING OVER W CNTRL WI. OTHER PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE FCST WERE TO DECREASE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING FROM MSP TO LXL...WITH THE RAIN THAT FELL OVERNIGHT AND THE LOWER STARTING TEMPS /COMPARED WITH YDAY/...HEATING SHUD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED. CURRENT TEMPS ARE 3 TO 4 DEGS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST IN MOST AREAS. KAT && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 310 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005) BOW MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF TWIN CITIES BY FORECAST ISSUANCE AND THEN THROUGH WI BY LATER MORNING. WILL LIKELY LET FLOOD WATCH END AT 7 AM. TROUGH/OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE AND STRONG THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE SETTING UP AGAIN AHEAD OF TROUGH. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF SEVERE IN EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT MOVING FRONT AND FORCING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE REMOVED POPS BUT WILL ONLY BE FOR A SHORT TIME. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FRONT AND THETA E ADVECTION TO WAVE BACK NORTH AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MN...NONE. .WI...NONE. && $$ mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1011 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION... ANOTHER UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FORTHCOMING. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA. ACTIVITY WILL HANG ON A BIT LONGER OVER THE COLUMBUS AREA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...SQUALL LINE STILL HOLDING ON AND MOVING SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE MO/ARK/TN BORDERS. RUC40 PICKS THIS FEATURE UP WELL AND MAINTAINS THE LINE IN THE RELATIVELY PRISTINE ATMOSPHERE OVER NE ARK AND WEST TN...HOWEVER IT LOSES THE LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN MS. THE LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...LIS AROUND -2 AND SFC BASED CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG. ASSUMING THIS LINE DOES HOLD TOGETHER...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS HAVE THIS LINE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MY CWFA BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM. AT THIS POINT...AM MORE INCLINED TO THINK THAT THIS LINE WILL FALL APART AND PLAY A ROLE IN TOMORROW'S CONVECTIVE BUFFET. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ALTER LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS HOUR ARE APPROACHING LOWS IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...WILL DROP LOWS TO AROUND 70 EVERYWHERE. FINALLY...HAVE INCLUDED THE LATEST TPC WIND FORECASTS TO THE GRIDS. FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE...REFERENCE THE LATEST SUITE OF TPC PRODUCTS AND THE PFM FOR THE WIND PARTICULARS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ GAGAN ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1055 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005 ...SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SURGED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT HAD WEAKENED SINCE 03Z AS IT APPROACHED FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT TRANSLATED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI HAD SHIFTED WEST AND STRETCHED FROM NEAR NEVADA...TO SPRINGFIELD TO GAINESVILLE...BUT HAD BECOME LESS DISCERNIBLE. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WAS ORIENTED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE MOST THE INTENSE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING. THE EVOLUTION AND SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. THE LATEST RUC MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE PLAINS. WILL MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AS IT WOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES IF IT VEERS INTO THE AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IN AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY...AND ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FOSTER && .AVIATION... THE JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD TERMINALS MAY BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT BUT TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE. I HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND INTERACTS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOSTER && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH VERNON...BARTON...CEDAR AND ST. CLAIR. .KS...BOURBON AND CRAWFORD. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 850 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION... WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT. OUTFLOW FROM TODAY'S COMPLEX HAS PUSHED SOUTHWEST OF CNTRL MO THIS EVENING AND TSRA HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. HOWEVER.. LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER WRN MO CONTINUES TO PUSH EWD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. RUNS OF THE RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE 900-800MB LAYER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT OVER CNTRL MO...SO HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO KEEP THE WATCH FOR NOW. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...FALSH FLOOD WATCH FOR AUDRAIN...BOONE...CALLAWAY...COLE... GASCONADE...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MONITEAU...OSAGE... AND RALLS COUNTIES UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING. IL...NONE. && $$ BRITT mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 430 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION... WENT AHEAD ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MY CENTRAL MISSOURI COUNTIES. OUTFLOW ON BACK SIDE OF MCS HAS SLOWED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE...STORMS SHOULD BE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA. RUC DOES SHOW A BROAD 800-900MB FLOW INTERSECTING THIS BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION OVER THE WATCH AREA AT 03Z...HENCE THE NEED FOR THE FFA. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM DEALS WITH EXTENT OF TSRA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHERE OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING CONVECTION WILL FOCUS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. GFS IS SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PUT LESS FAITH IN IT. HAVE FOLLOWED THE 18Z NAM MORE CLOSELY AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON ONGOING TSRA THAN THE 12Z RUN. TONIGHT...EXPECT ACTIVE TSRA TO GO ON WELL INTO THE EVENING AS OUTFLOW PUSHES INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER AREA. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CNTRL MO AS LOW LEVEL JUST SETS BACK UP TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY OVER THE OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED CHC OF TSRA INTO THE WEEKEND AS AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS AREA. USED OF BLEND OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THINK THAT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND TSRA TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD NGM MOS. EXTENDED IS JUST AS COMPLICATED WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING DISPARITY IN JUST HOW QUICK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SHOWED AS SLOWER MOVEMENT ACROSS THE AREA AND DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...FALSH FLOOD WATCH FOR AUDRAIN...BOONE...CALLAWAY...COLE... GASCONADE...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MONITEAU...OSAGE... AND RALLS COUNTIES UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING. IL...NONE. && $$ BRITT mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 253 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM CONCERNS HINGE AROUND EVOLVING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RICH GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE OZARKS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH PROXIMITY RUC/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 5000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD CU FIELD OVER THE AREA SHOWING LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...AWAITING FROM SEVERAL LIFTING MECHANISMS THAT LIE TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS A SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT AND LEADING DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM A SURFACE LOW ALONE THE NE KS/SE NEBRASKA BORDER. A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS EAST OF THIS LOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN MCS OVER NRN MISSOURI. SLOW EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH RAPID INITIATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FROM THE TRIPLE POINT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MO. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL...LARGE CONTRIBUTION TO EXTREME INSTABILITY IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...PRECIPITATION LOADING ABOVE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY LEAD TO A FEW SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL...HOWEVER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THIS EVENING MAY PROVIDE AN ENHANCED THREAT ALONG BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. MCS SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS EVENING. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH VERY HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS HAS NECESSITATED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL MO AND SE KS WHERE SEVERAL RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS HAVE AFFECTED THE AREA. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE WESTERN CWA CLOSER TO QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. IF THIS FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD PER SEVERAL OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...THEN MUGGY BUT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF COULD THROW A WRENCH INTO MATTERS TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE ON THE NW FLANK OF ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD ENHANCE THE GOING DRY FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK. BOOKBINDER && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR BROKEN CEILINGS OF 2500 TO 4000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS CUMULUS FIELD BEGINS TO EXPAND. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP WITHIN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO A MILE OR LESS WITHIN THE TORRENTIAL RAIN HOWEVER OVERALL VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 MILES. LINDENBERG && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH BARTON...CEDAR AND ST. CLAIR. .KS...BOURBON AND CRAWFORD. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 1145 AM MDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION... WILL UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST POPS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL LOWER POPS TO REFLECT THIS. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. EMANUEL && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 545 AM MDT WED JUN 8 2005 ANOTHER COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. ONE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA LAST NIGHT AND IT DID NOT GET PULLED OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE MCS NOW AFFECTING MN AND WI. THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF A SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT BUT BY 6 AM IT IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE ANY PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFFECTING THE DILLON AREA. THE RUC MODEL LINGERS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THIS REGION MOST OF THE DAY. THEREFORE WENT WITH HIGH POPS FOR MUCH OF BEAVERHEAD AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MADISON AND GALLATIN COUNTIES FOR TODAY. SNOW IS LIKELY THIS MORNING ABOVE 6000 FEET IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE BUT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED. THEREFORE I HAVE ALSO ALLOWED THE FLOOD WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR GLACIER COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION AS A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF HAVRE. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS ALL OF THESE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEMS FINALLY START TO DRIFT AWAY AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THOUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BRUSDA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DURING THIS PERIOD. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE ECMWF SENDING ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFSLR. DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND....WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. MPJ MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ONLY MINOR INCONSISTENCIES IN MODELS DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CWA MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TUESDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE IN AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP PLAINS DRY AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY. EK && .AVIATION... UPDATED AT 1745Z BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER MT WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN ND AND SURFACE TROF EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS SW AND CENTRAL MT WITH AN ISOLATED TS POSSIBLE AT KBZN AND KLWT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ENERGY CONSOLIDATING OVER CENTRAL MT FOR INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE OVER NORTHCENTRAL MT AFTER 06Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 62 41 62 43 / 20 30 30 20 CTB 60 39 59 41 / 20 30 30 20 HLN 62 43 63 45 / 30 40 50 20 BZN 60 36 62 38 / 40 30 30 20 WEY 47 30 56 33 / 60 40 30 20 DLN 54 35 59 37 / 80 40 40 20 HVR 64 44 64 46 / 40 30 30 20 LWT 60 39 60 41 / 30 40 30 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BRUSDA LONG TERM....MPJ/EK AVIATION...HOENISCH WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 545 AM MDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION... ANOTHER COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. ONE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA LAST NIGHT AND IT DID NOT GET PULLED OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE MCS NOW AFFECTING MN AND WI. THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF A SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT BUT BY 6 AM IT IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE ANY PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFFECTING THE DILLON AREA. THE RUC MODEL LINGERS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THIS REGION MOST OF THE DAY. THEREFORE WENT WITH HIGH POPS FOR MUCH OF BEAVERHEAD AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MADISON AND GALLATIN COUNTIES FOR TODAY. SNOW IS LIKELY THIS MORNING ABOVE 6000 FEET IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE BUT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED. THEREFORE I HAVE ALSO ALLOWED THE FLOOD WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR GLACIER COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION AS A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF HAVRE. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS ALL OF THESE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEMS FINALLY START TO DRIFT AWAY AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THOUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BRUSDA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DURING THIS PERIOD. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE ECMWF SENDING ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFSLR. DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND....WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. MPJ MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ONLY MINOR INCONSISTENCIES IN MODELS DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CWA MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TUESDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE IN AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP PLAINS DRY AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY. EK && .AVIATION... UPDATED AT 1145Z UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH LOCAL MVFR AFTER 18Z AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. IN FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN LOW CEILINGS WITH AREAS IFR DUE TO LOW VISIBILITIES IN SNOW NEAR MONIDA PASS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 62 41 62 43 / 20 30 30 20 CTB 60 39 59 41 / 20 30 30 20 HLN 62 43 63 45 / 30 40 50 20 BZN 60 36 62 38 / 40 30 30 20 WEY 47 30 56 33 / 60 40 30 20 DLN 54 35 59 37 / 80 40 40 20 HVR 64 44 64 46 / 40 30 30 20 LWT 60 39 60 41 / 30 40 30 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BRUSDA LONG TERM....MPJ/EK AVIATION...MPJ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 250 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION... SYNOPSIS...12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPR AIR ANLYS INDCD MEAN TROF OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVR THE SW US. IMPRESSIVE UPPR LVL H3 JET OF 100 KT VISIBLE FM UT INTO WY. AT H5 CNTRL PLAINS REMAINED UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL SHRTWV TROFS EMBEDDED WITH IN THE FAST FLOW. LAST NIGHTS SIG SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVR THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN WITH A SHRTWV RIDGE ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS. NEXT UPSTRM SHRTWV WAS OVR WY/CO WITH ANOTHER WV DIVING SEWD INTO THE WRN US. A MARITIME AIRMASS CONTD OVR THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS WITH A +20 DP AT KOKC AT H85. H85 CDFNT WAS LOCATED FM ERN NEB SWWD INTO WRN KS. 19Z OBJECTIVE MSAS ANLYS INDCD CDFNT ALNG THE MO RIVER INTO NE KS WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FM MO MCS INTO SE NEB NR KFNB. FORECAST...VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST THRU MON WITH SEVERAL CHCS OF CONVECTION/SVR WX. FOR TONIGHT CDFNT HAS BECOME NEARLY STNRY ALNG THE MO RIVER AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN EWD PUSH THRU THE EVENING. LATEST LAPS/RUC ANALYSIS INDCS FAR SE CWA HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE OR NO CIN REMAINING. MAY SEE AN ISO TSRA DEVELOP HERE THIS EVNG...BUT SHLD QUICKLY MV INTO KS/MO BY 03Z. VERY LITTLE CHC OF CONVECTION FARTHER N ALNG THE CDFNT WITH FAIRLY STABLE AIR BEING ADVECTED IN FM THE E. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE W WERE UPSLOPE FLOW WAS ALREADY GETTING GOING. EXPECT TSRA TO DVLP OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE EVNG IN REGION OF RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 100 KT UT/WY JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED WITH WK SHRTWV TROF. SIG MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SHRTWV TROF APPROACHES WHICH SHLD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR MCS TO DVLP AND MV EWD/EXPAND ACRS NRN NEB. WL START CHC POPS AFTR 09Z FOR WRN CWA FOR THIS ACTIVITY AS IT RIDES THE NRN EDGE OF THE LLJ. NAM DROPS THIS CONVECTION SEWD INTO ERN NEB ON THURS...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHLD BE INCREASING THRU THE NIGHT TONIGHT WITH GOOD SWRLY FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHLD BRING +12 AT H7 INTO SRN NEB BY 12Z. THUS IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT TSRA WL CONT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OVR THE NRN CWA BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE MRNG. CONVECTION SHLD PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THOUGH THAT WL SETTLE OVR SRN NEB BY AFTN. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT STG ON THURS AFTN...BUT WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NR 70...CONVERGENCE ALNG THE BOUNDARY...AND WK LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALOFT...ISO/SCT TSRA WL DVLP ALNG THE BOUNDARY. LATEST SREF INDICATES 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACRS THE BOUNDARY WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY. THUS SUPERCELLS WL BE POSSIBLE PER LATEST SWODY2. LOW-LVL SHEAR IS NOT STG OVR CWA...BUT GOOD TURNING IS INDCIATED IN POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SEEMS LIKE VERY LARGE HAIL/WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AN ISO TOR CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. MCS SHLD EVENTUALLY DVLP TOMORROW EVNG AND ROLL ACRS CNTRL/NRN NEB INTO FRI MRNG AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. SFC BOUNDARY CONTS IN THE AREA ON FRI AND MODELS PROGG STG SHRTWV TROF TO EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN. STG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WL LIKELY LEAD TO CONVECTION BY AFTN ALNG THE BOUNDARY WITH SVR WX AGAIN POSSIBLE. THIS IS LIKELY TO CONT THRU FRI NIGHT AS SRN PLAINS CONVECTION LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WL KEEP THE CHC OF TSRA INTO NEXT MON WITH THE SFC FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH SUN INTO MON LOOKING LIKE THE NEXT BEST CHC OF SIG SVR WX. OTHERWISE TMPS LOOK NR NORMAL WITH A DRY TUE/WED. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ BOUSTEAD ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1045 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005 .SHORT TERM...HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG...OTHERWISE...FCST IS ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED AFTN TSTMS DEVELOPING MAINLY W OF HIGHWAY 17. DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS THOSE FOLKS THAT DO GET THE STORMS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW'S ARE AROUND 1.5". NEARLY NON-EXISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRES DUE E OF THE CAROLINA COAST SO EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. && .AVIATION...SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF. THEREFORE VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS WHICH SHOULD BE MOST PREVELANT WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 TODAY. && .MARINE...WEAK GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS. LAND BREEZE COMPONENT ABOUT OVER AND WINDS COMING AROUND TO SE/S AS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING. SOME OF THE GUID (RUC 40 AND NGM) ARE INC SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING PRODUCES A LITTLE GUSTINESS BUT WITH WEAK GRAD WOULD PREFER TO STICK WITH THE MME/MMG (NAM/GFS) NUMBERS WHICH ARE MAINLY AROUND 10 KT SUSTAINED. LATEST NAM-12 ALSO SUPPORTS THIS. THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE EXPECTED TO ONGOING MARINE FORECAST. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ WS/JME nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 150 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005 .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... SCT CONVECTION WILL POP UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. DRY PUNCH NOTED ALONG IN/OH BORDER...BUT MUCH OF REGION IS UNDERNEATH SCT CU AROUND 4KFT. EXPECT THIS CU TO BECOME TEMPO BKN THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA AND HEAVY RAIN THAT SHOULDN'T AFFECT TAF SITES BUT WILL BE IN VISCINITY. TEMPO IS TOO PESSIMISTIC FOR THE EXPECTED TIME COVERAGE AS SHOWERS ARE BASICALLY SHORT LIVED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PROBS CAN'T BE USED IN 1ST 9 HOURS...SO I'M LEFT WITH WAITING TO SEE IF TSRA WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AND AMENDING WHEN IT DEVELOPS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO GO BACK TO FEW/SCT OR EVEN CLEAR FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT. MISSED FOG ON YESTERDAYS FCST FOR THIS MORNING...AM INCLUDING IT TONIGHT AS SAME AMS WILL BE IN PLACE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH AND WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRANKS && .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... SCT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 90 NORTHWEST. SERN FCST AREA IS LOWER ON TEMPS WITH THE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 HERE AS WELL...BUT BY THAT TIME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND CLOUD COVER IF NOT PRECIP WILL HOLD DOWN MAXES. MODIFIED SOUNDING IS LOADED AND PWATS INCREASE TO AN IMPRESSIVE 1.67. LACK OF FLOW WILL HAVE ANY OF THESE STORMS PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND SPS WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALSO REQUESTED GOES RAPID SCAN TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF CU THIS AFTERNOON. IT WON'T BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCT. HOWEVER...INCREASED PWATS AND THE MODIFIED CAPE OF 33-3500 IS IMPRESSIVE. WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS THERE AND WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. H5 VORT WILL BE FOUND SOMEWHERE OVER CWA AND MODELS HAVE IT MORE PREVALENT IN THE EAST. THE VORT ISN'T STRONG...AND SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ACTIVITY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. DO NOT EXPECT TO CHANGE THE PUBLIC FORECAST AT ALL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FCST HAS SCT STORMS AND HIGHS AROUND WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED...AND A NOD TOWARDS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. FRANKS && .AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WAS KLUK WHERE VLIFR CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL IN/OH. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPO FOR TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THAN THE NAM. IT SHOWS MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER IL DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AT 18Z AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE REGION OF THE TAFS BY 00Z. THUS HAVE PUSHED BACK TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. AFT 00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW MORE CLOUDS. TIPTON && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 328 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MRNG AS OH VLY REMAINS UNDER UPR RIDGE. TSTMS REMAIN WELL OFF TO NORTH AND WEST INVOF FRNTL BNDRY DRAPED ACRS CNTRL GRT LKS. TEMPS WERE AROUND 70 DEG ATTM. MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE SHORT TERM AS UPR RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACRS EASTERN CONUS. DIURNAL HEATING AND SBCAPES APPCHG 2000 J/KG WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CATALYSTS IN TSTM DVLPMNT TODAY. CHANCES FOR TSTMS DO LOOK BETTER THAN TUES AS MID LVL S/WV MOVES ACRS REGION THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE SHWNG UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR SAT THIS MRNG ACRS MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT DUE TO EXPECTED BETTER COVERAGE...RANGING FROM 30 POPS IN WEST CNTRL OH TO 40 POPS ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA. TSTMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT PEAK HEATING DURING AFTN HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF QUESTION THAT MAY SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO DVLP AS ERLY AS MID MRNG (14-15Z) ACRS TRI STATE AREA AS S/WV APPCHS FROM WEST. WHILE AN ISOLD SVR STORM IS POSSIBLE...PRIMARY CONCERN FROM TSTMS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG RISE IN PWATS TO 1.8-1.9 IN THIS AFTN AND WITH STORM MOTION PROGGED AT LESS THAN 10KTS...GOING TO SEE SOME VERY SLOW MOVING TSTMS. THUS HAVE INDICATED HVY RAIN IN ZONES. TSTMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVNG AS S/WV MOVES EAST OF FCST AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. PINPOINTING EXACT DETAILS REGARDING STRENGTH/TIMING OF MID LVL VORTS THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO VARY BTWN 00Z GFS AND NAM SOLNS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THURS AND FRI...FOCUSING MAX POPS DURING AFTN/EVNG HOURS IN ACCORD WITH PEAK HEATING. HAVE ALSO ADDED SLGT CHC POPS TO OVERNIGHTS THURS AND FRI NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES WILL BE LOWER...ANY MID LVL FORCING THAT CAN WORK ACRS THE FCST AREA MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO. FRNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN ACRS GRT LKS INTO WEEKEND AS UPR RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACRS EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP WARM HUMID AIRMASS ACRS OH VLY. TEMPS...MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE TO CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEG COOLER THAN TUES MAXS. WARMEST TEMPS WILL RESIDE ACRS NRN FCST AREA WITH U80S EXPECTED. MID 80S EXPECTED FOR THURS/FRI. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP INTO OH VLY...AND DEWPTS PROGGED TO AROUND 70 BY THURS/FRI. MAV GUID HAS BEEN VERY GOOD AS OF LATE...AND SAW NO REASON TO STRAY. RYAN LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... ADJUSTED POPS SAT TO CARRY A CHANCE ALL DAY. OTHERWISE...MADE NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED. PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM TUES AFTN FOLLOWS BELOW. RYAN (ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005) LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BERMUDA HIGH WILL SHIELD THE REGION FROM MAJOR SYSTEMS, BUT A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST. LACK OF STRONG UPPER SUPPORT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE POINTS TO A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME CONVECTION AND NIGHTTIME DISSIPATION. THEREFORE, WENT WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN MAY INCREASE ON THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL ALLOW CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1020 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... SCT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 90 NORTHWEST. SERN FCST AREA IS LOWER ON TEMPS WITH THE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 HERE AS WELL...BUT BY THAT TIME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND CLOUD COVER IF NOT PRECIP WILL HOLD DOWN MAXES. MODIFIED SOUNDING IS LOADED AND PWATS INCREASE TO AN IMPRESSIVE 1.67. LACK OF FLOW WILL HAVE ANY OF THESE STORMS PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND SPS WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALSO REQUESTED GOES RAPID SCAN TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF CU THIS AFTERNOON. IT WON'T BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCT. HOWEVER...INCREASED PWATS AND THE MODIFIED CAPE OF 33-3500 IS IMPRESSIVE. WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS THERE AND WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. H5 VORT WILL BE FOUND SOMEWHERE OVER CWA AND MODELS HAVE IT MORE PREVALENT IN THE EAST. THE VORT ISN'T STRONG...AND SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ACTIVITY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. DO NOT EXPECT TO CHANGE THE PUBLIC FORECAST AT ALL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FCST HAS SCT STORMS AND HIGHS AROUND WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED...AND A NOD TOWARDS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. FRANKS && .AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WAS KLUK WHERE VLIFR CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL IN/OH. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPO FOR TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THAN THE NAM. IT SHOWS MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER IL DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AT 18Z AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE REGION OF THE TAFS BY 00Z. THUS HAVE PUSHED BACK TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. AFT 00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW MORE CLOUDS. TIPTON && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 328 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MRNG AS OH VLY REMAINS UNDER UPR RIDGE. TSTMS REMAIN WELL OFF TO NORTH AND WEST INVOF FRNTL BNDRY DRAPED ACRS CNTRL GRT LKS. TEMPS WERE AROUND 70 DEG ATTM. MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE SHORT TERM AS UPR RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACRS EASTERN CONUS. DIURNAL HEATING AND SBCAPES APPCHG 2000 J/KG WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CATALYSTS IN TSTM DVLPMNT TODAY. CHANCES FOR TSTMS DO LOOK BETTER THAN TUES AS MID LVL S/WV MOVES ACRS REGION THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE SHWNG UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR SAT THIS MRNG ACRS MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT DUE TO EXPECTED BETTER COVERAGE...RANGING FROM 30 POPS IN WEST CNTRL OH TO 40 POPS ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA. TSTMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT PEAK HEATING DURING AFTN HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF QUESTION THAT MAY SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO DVLP AS ERLY AS MID MRNG (14-15Z) ACRS TRI STATE AREA AS S/WV APPCHS FROM WEST. WHILE AN ISOLD SVR STORM IS POSSIBLE...PRIMARY CONCERN FROM TSTMS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG RISE IN PWATS TO 1.8-1.9 IN THIS AFTN AND WITH STORM MOTION PROGGED AT LESS THAN 10KTS...GOING TO SEE SOME VERY SLOW MOVING TSTMS. THUS HAVE INDICATED HVY RAIN IN ZONES. TSTMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVNG AS S/WV MOVES EAST OF FCST AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. PINPOINTING EXACT DETAILS REGARDING STRENGTH/TIMING OF MID LVL VORTS THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO VARY BTWN 00Z GFS AND NAM SOLNS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THURS AND FRI...FOCUSING MAX POPS DURING AFTN/EVNG HOURS IN ACCORD WITH PEAK HEATING. HAVE ALSO ADDED SLGT CHC POPS TO OVERNIGHTS THURS AND FRI NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES WILL BE LOWER...ANY MID LVL FORCING THAT CAN WORK ACRS THE FCST AREA MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO. FRNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN ACRS GRT LKS INTO WEEKEND AS UPR RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACRS EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP WARM HUMID AIRMASS ACRS OH VLY. TEMPS...MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE TO CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEG COOLER THAN TUES MAXS. WARMEST TEMPS WILL RESIDE ACRS NRN FCST AREA WITH U80S EXPECTED. MID 80S EXPECTED FOR THURS/FRI. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP INTO OH VLY...AND DEWPTS PROGGED TO AROUND 70 BY THURS/FRI. MAV GUID HAS BEEN VERY GOOD AS OF LATE...AND SAW NO REASON TO STRAY. RYAN LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... ADJUSTED POPS SAT TO CARRY A CHANCE ALL DAY. OTHERWISE...MADE NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED. PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM TUES AFTN FOLLOWS BELOW. RYAN (ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005) LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BERMUDA HIGH WILL SHIELD THE REGION FROM MAJOR SYSTEMS, BUT A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST. LACK OF STRONG UPPER SUPPORT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE POINTS TO A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME CONVECTION AND NIGHTTIME DISSIPATION. THEREFORE, WENT WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN MAY INCREASE ON THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL ALLOW CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 632 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005 .AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WAS KLUK WHERE VLIFR CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL IN/OH. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPO FOR TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THAN THE NAM. IT SHOWS MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER IL DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AT 18Z AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE REGION OF THE TAFS BY 00Z. THUS HAVE PUSHED BACK TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. AFT 00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW MORE CLOUDS. TIPTON && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 328 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MRNG AS OH VLY REMAINS UNDER UPR RIDGE. TSTMS REMAIN WELL OFF TO NORTH AND WEST INVOF FRNTL BNDRY DRAPED ACRS CNTRL GRT LKS. TEMPS WERE AROUND 70 DEG ATTM. MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE SHORT TERM AS UPR RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACRS EASTERN CONUS. DIURNAL HEATING AND SBCAPES APPCHG 2000 J/KG WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CATALYSTS IN TSTM DVLPMNT TODAY. CHANCES FOR TSTMS DO LOOK BETTER THAN TUES AS MID LVL S/WV MOVES ACRS REGION THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE SHWNG UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR SAT THIS MRNG ACRS MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT DUE TO EXPECTED BETTER COVERAGE...RANGING FROM 30 POPS IN WEST CNTRL OH TO 40 POPS ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA. TSTMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT PEAK HEATING DURING AFTN HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF QUESTION THAT MAY SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO DVLP AS ERLY AS MID MRNG (14-15Z) ACRS TRI STATE AREA AS S/WV APPCHS FROM WEST. WHILE AN ISOLD SVR STORM IS POSSIBLE...PRIMARY CONCERN FROM TSTMS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG RISE IN PWATS TO 1.8-1.9 IN THIS AFTN AND WITH STORM MOTION PROGGED AT LESS THAN 10KTS...GOING TO SEE SOME VERY SLOW MOVING TSTMS. THUS HAVE INDICATED HVY RAIN IN ZONES. TSTMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVNG AS S/WV MOVES EAST OF FCST AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. PINPOINTING EXACT DETAILS REGARDING STRENGTH/TIMING OF MID LVL VORTS THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO VARY BTWN 00Z GFS AND NAM SOLNS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THURS AND FRI...FOCUSING MAX POPS DURING AFTN/EVNG HOURS IN ACCORD WITH PEAK HEATING. HAVE ALSO ADDED SLGT CHC POPS TO OVERNIGHTS THURS AND FRI NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES WILL BE LOWER...ANY MID LVL FORCING THAT CAN WORK ACRS THE FCST AREA MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO. FRNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN ACRS GRT LKS INTO WEEKEND AS UPR RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACRS EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP WARM HUMID AIRMASS ACRS OH VLY. TEMPS...MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE TO CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEG COOLER THAN TUES MAXS. WARMEST TEMPS WILL RESIDE ACRS NRN FCST AREA WITH U80S EXPECTED. MID 80S EXPECTED FOR THURS/FRI. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP INTO OH VLY...AND DEWPTS PROGGED TO AROUND 70 BY THURS/FRI. MAV GUID HAS BEEN VERY GOOD AS OF LATE...AND SAW NO REASON TO STRAY. RYAN LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... ADJUSTED POPS SAT TO CARRY A CHANCE ALL DAY. OTHERWISE...MADE NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED. PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM TUES AFTN FOLLOWS BELOW. RYAN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 132 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005) AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER TAF SITES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOWING SOME FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THIS MORNING WITH KDAY...KCMH AND KLCK SEEING MORE OF AN MVFR SUN RISE SURPRISE. KILN AND KCVG WILL DROP INTO IFR WITH KLUK DROPPING INTO VLIFR. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS TAF SITES TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER. A MID LEVEL WAVE IN BEDDED IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. FOR ALL TAF SITES HAVE CB MENTIONED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION EXITS PRETTY MUCH FROM 14/15Z ON WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT A 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP WITH TSRA WHICH FOCUSES ON THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT. WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SLOW MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOTS OF RAIN. THIS MEANS IF STORMS FORM NEAR OR OVER TAF SITES THAT THE AIRPORT COULD BE AFFECTED FOR A WHILE. TIPTON (ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005) LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BERMUDA HIGH WILL SHIELD THE REGION FROM MAJOR SYSTEMS, BUT A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST. LACK OF STRONG UPPER SUPPORT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE POINTS TO A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME CONVECTION AND NIGHTTIME DISSIPATION. THEREFORE, WENT WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN MAY INCREASE ON THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL ALLOW CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 930 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... DIURNAL HEATING/CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM HAS PASSED AND WE'RE LEFT WITH ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE/MOISTURE SURGE TRAVELING UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ACTS ON ALREADY MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVERNIGHT IN PRESENCE OF WEAK SHEAR. BUFKIT AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW THIN CAPE PROFILE LINGERING OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5" WHILE WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS FORCED BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. WL REMOVE HIGHER EVENING POPS IN QUICK UPDATE - NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT PRESENT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 216 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... CU POPPING OVER THE HIGHER RIDGE LINES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY CLIMB ENUF TO MAKE A BRIEF SHOWER IN PLACES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF UNV. WEAK FEATURE THAT FIRED THE CONVECTION OVER LK ERIE IS NOW MEETING UP WITH THE CU IN THE NW MTS...BUT RADAR RETURNS NOT OBVIOUS AS OF 17Z. WILL BE PATIENT...AND ALLOW THE SFC HEATING AND MODEST COOLING ALOFT TO WORK FOR A BIT LONGER BEFORE DROPPING POPS FROM CURRENT CHC RANGE IN THE N/W FOR THIS EVENING...TO SLIGHTS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL STAY MILD...AND HUMIDITY WILL BE NOTICEABLE...WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S. NEWEST MOS GUID IS NOW QUITE A FEW DEGS COOLER WITH MAXES ON THURSDAY...I BELIEVE THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WILL NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A DEG OR TWO FROM CURR FCST...BUT HOLD ABOVE GUID DUE TO PERSISTENCE. POPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...JUST ADDING 20 OR SO PCT. THIS PUTS MOST OF THE AREA INTO CHC CATEGORY AND OUR WRN COUNTIES UP TO LIKELY. REASONS FOR INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE THE INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF A VORT MAX FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY/WV. WILL ALSO TAKE A BIT OF A STEP UP IN WORDING AND MENTION HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS DUE TO NIL FLOW ALOFT TO PUSH THEM AROUND AND THE HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE. LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A RIDGE IN THE EAST. MREF 500 HPA ANOMALIES ARE ON THE ORDER OF -1 TO -1.5SD BELOW NORMAL WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE RIDGE IN THE EAST IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE ANOMALOUS APPROACHING +2SDS. THE CLOSED 588DM CONTOUR OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ITS ABOUT 6DM LOWER THAN THE VALUE ASSOCIATED WITH OUR PROTRACTED HEAT WAVES WHEN WE EXPECT A CLOSED 594DM CONTOUR IN THE SAME REGION. NONE THE LESS...WE ARE IN FOR AN EXTENDED TIME OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LIKE MANY PREVIOUS HEAT WAVES...THIS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUMP ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AROUND ITS WESTERN FLANKS. THE SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY MAKE THE WEATHER A BIT MORE INTERESTING THEN THE GENERAL HEAT. MOST EPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN TOWARD MORE NORMAL CONDITIONS...MOST SHOW THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GOING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE FORECASTS. FRIDAY...WITH H5 THICKNESS VALUES RUNNING ABOUT +1.5SD ABOVE NORMAL AND 850 HPA TEMPS ABOUT +1SD ABOVE NORMAL...IT SHOULD BE A WARM DAY. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE RIDGE AND THE SOUTHERLY JET...THIS COULD FIRE OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION COULD REDUCE THE HEATING. THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR IS PRIMED FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION....HOWEVER...SREFS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL 700 HPA TEMPS...NEAR 8C WHICH COULD PRODUCE A STRONG CAP. PWAT VALUES SURGE TO ABOUT 2 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT +2.5SDS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH CAPE TOO. SREF PLUMES SHOW MEDIAN CAPE AT MOST PA STATION NEAR 1500JKG-1 FRIDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET INTO THE REGION WITH THE PWAT SURGE IMPLIES A STRONG NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THUR-FRIDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...OLD PWAT RULE SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL IF WE GET CONVECTION. THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS AND EPS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE LLJ BUT MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES. SATURDAY...THE THICKNESS RIDGE AND ANOMALIES BUILD TO THE NORTH. PA IS ABOUT +1.5 SD ABOVE NORMAL THERMALLY. THE PWAT STAYS HIGH...BUT THE HIGHEST VALUES SURGE TO OUR NORTH..SOME AREAS IN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ARE IN THE +3SD RANGE. THIS SUGGESTS PA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE OF THUNDER THAN FRIDAY. BUT STILL WARM AND HUMID AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE PWAT FIELDS SHOW AN INTERESTING FEATURES...THE TROPICAL AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST CREATES AN INTERESTING GRADIENT WITH COOLER AND DRIER ATLANTIC AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE POLE-WARD TRANSPORT OF WARM TROPICAL AIR COMMON IN HEAT WAVES AND WARM EPISODES. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STILL THERMAL AND MOISTURE WISE ABOVE NORMAL. CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY LOWER MOISTURE AND MODEL CAPE FORECASTS ARE LESS ROBUST IN 1800 TO 0000 UTC TIME FRAME THESE TWO DAYS RELATIVE TO FRIDAY-SATURDAY. SOME NCEP MREF MEMBERS SHOW A SECOND SURGE IN THE LLJ THAT COULD INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN WEST SUNDAY. BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH PROBABILITY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A SLOW DRYING IS FORECAST IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THE PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO ABOUT +1SD ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND BACK TO SEASONABLY VALUES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT OUR MINI-HEAT EPISODE WILL COME TO AN END. THE THERMAL AND THICKNESS ANOMALIES WEAKEN AND ARE BACK TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF SOME NORTHERLY 850 HPA WIND ANOMALIES WED-THU HOLDS UP THAT THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE-WED MAY SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT THIS TOO WILL CHANGE. AVIATION... WDLY SCT CONVECTION IS IN STORE FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE TAFS...ESP VCNTY KBFD/KJST...BUT REST OF AREA HAS SUCH A LOW PROB TO GET A SHOWER THAT I WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA ATTM. WILL ALSO JUST KEEP VCTS TO BFD WITH TEMPO TS. AFTER 02Z...MOST OF THE CU WILL DIE AWAY...AND WE WILL BE LEFT WITH ANOTHER SLIGHTLY MUGGY NIGHT AND FOG WILL BE A WORRY ONCE AGAIN AT KIPT...BUT NOT REALLY ELSEWHERE. WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR MVFR FOG/HZ IN MOST TAFS FOR EARLY AM THOUGH. CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEVOIR pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1010 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON KGSP 88-D IN A WANING MODE AT PRESENT...WITH DENSE COVERAGE REMAINING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...NEW CELLS DEVELOPING IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA. KFFC 88-D SHOWS MULTIPLE CELLS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND SHIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA AREA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING INDICATES A WEAK WIND SHIFT BETWEEN KFFC AND KBMX RAOB SITES...IMPLYING PRESENCE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. MEANWHILE...KGSP 88-D VELOCITY AZIMUTH DISPLAY SHOWS A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE NEW PROLIFERATION OF SMALL CELLS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. BOTH RUC AND LATEST 12KM NAM SEEM TO BELIEVE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH WITH OUR MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO KEEP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS WITHIN OUR CWFA BORDER OVERNIGHT. FOR THE UPDATE...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE TWO NORTHERN-MOST FOOTHILL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES AND THE TWO FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT ZONES (ALEXANDER/CATAWBA); THESE ARE LOCATIONS ALMOST IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION COVERING THE FOOTHILLS AT PRESENT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL FEATURE 50 POPS FOR THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS...IREDELL/MECKLENBURG AND THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FINALLY ALL OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...IN ANTICIPATION THAT WEAK BUT SEVERAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THOSE LOCATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN INDICATED AS 40 PERCENT FOR ALL OTHER LOCATIONS...INCLUDING OUR EASTERN MOST FOUR ADJACENT TO THE RALEIGH FORECAST OFFICE...AND FOR CENTRAL UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA FROM GREENVILLE AND PICKENS MOUNTAINS...SOUTH TO LAURENS AND GREENWOOD. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND NOT MUCH LIKELIHOOD THAT THE MERCURY WILL VARY MUCH FROM WHAT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. MOST LOCATIONS GOT RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY...AND AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT...SOME OF THE FOG MAY BECOME FAIRLY DENSE AND SO WILL ADVERTISE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 309 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... WEAK SHORT WAVE OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHORT WAVE...HIGH TERRAIN...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PLAY AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM 1K OVER THE MTNS TO 2500 J/KG EAST WITH NORTHWARD STORM MOTIONS AROUND 5 KTS. WITH PW/S > 1.5" AND K-INDEX IN THE L30S COMBINED WITH THE SLOW PROPAGATION...EXPECT THAT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT. ISO MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MODERATE CAPE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...ICE GROWTH REGIONS ARE HIGH AND WBZ IS > 13K FEET. WILL FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING SEA BREEZE MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF MIDLANDS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT BY SUNRISE THU. ALSO...CONTINUED FLOW MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION A LITTLE LONGER TONIGHT AIDED BY UPSLOPE LIFT. WILL KEEP SCT POPS GOING UNTIL 10Z TONIGHT. LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS ON THE NAM LATE TONIGHT WILL SIGNAL ANOTHER FOG/STRATUS SITUATION. EXPECT THAT THE LOWEST VIS/CEILINGS WILL REMAIN EAST...WILL WORD PATCHY FOG AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. THU THROUGH SATURDAY...PATTERN REMAINS...WHILE ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THICKEN OVER THE CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BRING AN ENHANCED BAND OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS...WITH MOST OF THE FA UNDER LIKELY POPS. ATMOSPHERE MAY DRY A BIT ON SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL LOW APPROACHES THE MS DELTA...THIS LOW COULD BECOME T.S. ARLENE. EXPECT THAT SAT HIGHS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FRI AND KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE STARTS OUT JUST TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADES OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY. RIDGING WEAKENS TUESDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE SUNDAY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THRU WITH SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOIST SLY FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL KEEP CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION...SLIGHTLY BETTER OVER THE MTNS...UNTIL THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. STILL HAVE CHC POP WED...BUT MORE OUTSIDE OF THE DIURNAL TIME FRAME WITH THE FRONT. OPERATIONAL MEX HIGHS HAVE COME BACK TOWARD ITS PREVIOUS NUMBERS...MORE IN LINE WITH GOING FCST. DID GO TOWARD THE HIGHER OF THE OPERATIONAL TEMPS OR ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WHICH ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GOING FCST. AVIATION... ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA. HAVE VCTS ALL SITES...WITH SHORT TEMPOS FOR TSRA AT THE START OF THE TAFS WHERE THUNDER IS IMMINENT. WILL AMEND FOR NEW/ADDITIONAL CELLS AS NECESSARY. MDLS WERE OVERDONE REGARDING LOW CLOUDS LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT THEY ARE AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SLY FLOW...HOWEVER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN HIGH. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE KEEPING VCTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...THEN BRINGING IN MVFR FOG. DID TEMPO SOME IFR FOG AT KHKY AND IFR FOG/MVFR CIGS AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK...IN LINE WITH CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. DEBRIS CLOUDS EARLY SHOULD KEEP SITES FROM SOCKING IN...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY. TEMPOED IN SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AFTER SUNRISE AT LOCATIONS WHERE THEY OCCURRED THIS MORNING. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SAB sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 840 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOUR LOOP SHOWED DECENT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN WY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER ID. WELL DEFINED AREA OF DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RESULT HAS BEEN INCREASING RADAR RETURNS OVER WY/NE/FAR SOUTHWEST SD THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...00Z KUNR/KRIW SOUNDING SHOWS A DECENT DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND SUBSTANTIALLY. 00Z RUC SHOWS THIS WILL HAPPEN AS PERSISTENT LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS 06Z-18Z THU AND WILL GO WITH COVERAGE WORDING TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. && .UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ HELGESON sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1050 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION... PRECIP HAS EXITED THE EASTERN CWA...AND BIGGEST ISSUE RIGHT NOW IS STRATUS DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE COOL POOL BEHIND THE PRECIP. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST AS THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER WAVE SLIDE FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE CWA...BUT UNTIL THEN...HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT WHAT EFFECT THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON TEMPS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE GOING HIGHS AS IS...WITH EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR THE STRATUS AND SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPS AS WEST WINDS HELP WITH MIXING. HOWEVER... WILL HAVE TO PLAY WITH HOURLY TEMP TREND IN THE GRIDS. WILL LEAVE GOING PRECIP CHANCE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IS...AS 12Z RUC...AND MORESO THE NAM...SHOW THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN GOING FORECAST HAD. HOWEVER...CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED BY RECOVERY FROM STRATUS/COLD POOL...AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WILL KEEP GOING CHANCE OF TSRA IN SOUTHEAST CWA FOR LATE AFTERNOON...AND IF STORMS DO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT... ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO GET SOME SEVERE STORMS IN FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE CWA. WILL UPDATE ZFP SHORTLY TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIP MENTION AND BUMP UP CLOUD WORDING ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ HACKER sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1039 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION... SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT MID-MORNING...AS ONLY ONGOING CONVECTION IS TO THE EAST OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. TEMPERATURES AT 15Z GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. DEWPOINTS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEAK SHEAR AXIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MEMPHIS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS IS CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CONVECTION. RUC SOUNDING MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE NAM WITH CAPES 4000 ON THE RUC WITH 2500 ON THE NAM THIS AFTERNOON. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST. NO UPDATES CURRENTLY PLANNED. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ WAGNER tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 416 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005 RADAR COMPOSITES HAVE BEGUN TO LIGHT UP OVER THE PAST HOUR...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS (AROUND 90) HAVE BEEN REACHED. CELLS TODAY HAVE INITIATED ALONG SEA/BAY BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND EXTEND AS FAR W AS THE RIC METRO AREA. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL CELLS ARE ONCE AGAIN FIRING FARTHER W TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS (WITH THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW). MODIFIED LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES NEARING 3500 J/KG...WITH VERY HIGH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONCE AGAIN (OVER 45KFT) FAVORING QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING UNDERNEATH THE STRONGEST CELLS. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS (AROUND 5 KTS)...WITH HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN THREAT. FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (~14KFT)...SO HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO CELLS WITH HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORES WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL (AOA 35 KFT). COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE STORY THIS EVENING... WHICH WILL HELP TO FIRE NEW CONVECTION. DID NOT GET TOO FANCY WITH POPS GIVEN THE MESOSCALE NATURE...THOUGH GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS DID OPT FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CURRENT BROKEN LINE OF CELLS. BOTH THE GFS/ETA SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. THIS AS THE LOW LEVEL AGEO FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY (VS. EASTERLY) AND DRAWS HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON THU...AS THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGHER DWPTS WOULD MAKE FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPS CLOSER TO 80F VS. 90F. SO...WOULD ANTICIPATED A CLOUDIER DAY TOMORROW...NOT AT HOT...WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MORE SCT-NUMEROUS VS. ISOLATED. K INDICES IN THE MID 30S WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A HIGHER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. && .AVIATION... VFR...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN VICINITY OF ANY SHRA/TSTMS...AND AREAS OF IFR/MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN FOG. && .MARINE... PERSISTENT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS INTO SUNDAY. LOW RIP CURRENT RISK THURSDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...22 va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 900 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION FOR BALANCE OF WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE OF A CAP THAN PREVIOUS NAM. EVEN THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE UNSTABLE...RUC SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY ALOFT. THEREFORE DOUBT THERE IS MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR TSTRMS TONIGHT. MODELS DEVELOP INSTAB AXIS AGAIN ACRS CWA TOMORROW AND ALSO FRIDAY. ALSO BNDRY IS IN VCNTY. CAPES APPCH 2K. AGAIN THE UPR FORCING NOT IMPRESSIVE THO SFC HEATING ALONG WITH MOIST UNSTBL AMS PROB ENUF TO KEEP CHCS GOING. SAME STORY FRI AND ACTUALLY RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. SW UPR FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALONG THE WAY. MODELS SHOWING SYMPTOMS OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH NUMEROUS STG VORT CENTERS POPPING UP ALONG THE WAY. PER COORD WITH SURROUNDING WFO/S QUITE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN A PERIOD TO GO DRY IN THIS SW UPR FLOW...MOIST/UNSTBL REGIME WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS WILL KEEP CHC WORDING GOING THROUGH TUE. .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 140 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 .SHORT TERM... WDLY SCT -TSRA CONTINUE ACRS ERN ZONES...HAD A RPT OF TREES DOWN IN COOPERSTOWN ARND 11:15 PM. MORE UNSETTLED WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR TDA. WATER VAPOR AND RUC SHOW A VORT MAX OVER INDIANA (SAT LOOP SUGGESTS IT IS LIKELY AN MCV) WHICH WILL MOVE EWD TWDS THE FCST AREA LATE TDA AND TNGT. MEANWHILE, ENHANCED TROPICAL MSTR WILL BE MOVG NEWD INTO THE RGN FROM THE SW WITH SOME WEAK RIPPLES. AREA LEAST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE FAR SE ZONES (WRN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS) WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE FCST (REFLECTED IN LOWER K INDICES). OTRW XPCT SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS TO FIRE UP LATER THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG WITH RGN FIRMLY IN THE 850 THETA-E AXIS. SVR SETUP NOT GREAT BUT A FEW SVR PULSE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, SIMILIAR TO YDA. WILL SHOW A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM SE TO NW, WITH HIGHEST VALUES (LIKELY) ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES INTO WRN MOHAWK VLY. XPCT MOST ACTIVITY TO DSPT LATE EVNG BUT WITH REMANTS OF S/WV LINGERING AND FACT THAT SCT CONVECTION IS ONGOING TNGT ACRS THE FCST AREA AND UPSTREAM, WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS. MORE OF THE SAME FOR TMRW AS THE DIRTY BERMUDA HIGH PTRN HANGS TUFF. MDLS HINT AT MORE RIPPLES IN THE UPR FLOW WHICH COULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY. WILL USE HIGH CHC POPS AND SCT TERMINOLOGY FOR FRI. LOOKS COOLER BUT WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER MAV/MET AND WARMER FWC. && .LONG RANGE (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY) WESTERN ATLANTIC AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL KEEP THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE BREAKING DOWN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. KEPT BASICALLY THE SAME EXTENDED FORECAST GOING WITH CHC POPS FOR CONVECTION DURING THE DAY AROUND THE PERIMETER OF LARGE BERMUDA HIGH AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIODS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S...THEN COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION (09/00Z -10/00Z)... VFR WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT VALLEY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND BRING FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR/MVFR AT KELM/KUCA/KAVP. THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WITH GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH A SHRA/TSRA CAN NOT BE RULED...ESPECIALLY AT KSYR/KUCA. -CEMPA && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 236 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI NGT)... THE COMBINATION OF PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...NUMEROUS WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVES...WARM TEMPERATURES FROM DAY TIME HEATING...AND SCATTERED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IS SUFFICIENT TO MEET ALL THE INGREDIENTS TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS (INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND LIFTING MECHANISM) OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP FLOW DIRECTLY OUT OF THE GULF TO CONTINUALLY FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. SPC OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 5 PERCENT FOR HAIL AND WIND EVENTS OCCURRING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO...AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE IN PRODUCING SEVERE CRITERIA. CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ATMOSPHERE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD SO WILL STICK WITH THE 60 PERCENT OR SO CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. I MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 4 PERIODS BY RAISING THEM A COUPLE DEGREES. MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING THE WARMTH AS 850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AROUND 18 DEGREES C THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. I AM EXPECTING DAY TIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TODAY AND FRIDAY AND KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM (SAT THRU WED)... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE BERMUDA HIGH RMNS OVER THE SERN U.S. AS A RESULT...A WARM AND MOIST SLY FLOW WL CONT. TEMPS WL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THRU MON WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON SUN. CDFNT WL FINALLY BRING A CHANGE IN THE WX ON TUE AFT AND EVENING. UNTIL THEN...CHC WORDG AND P/C SKIES. WL DRY FOR DRY WX ON WED. && .AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST. IN THE NEXT 6-9 HRS...THE NAM SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING. RUC DOES SHOW SOME WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850MB MOISTURE CONV OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA SO SOME CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...WITH PROBABILITY SO LOW...HAVE OPTED TO JUST PUT CB IN THE TAFS...AND NOT MENTION TSRA FOR THE NEXT 9 HOURS. UNLIKE WED...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY UPR SUPPORT FOR STORMS THU AFTN. NO UPR WAVE MOVING THRU LIKE WED SO...ANY FOCUS FOR STORMS WL LIKELY BE FROM LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES. WL THEREFORE GO WITH PROB30 TSRA 18-24Z FOR ALL SITES AS CONVECTION WL BE WIDELY SCT AND TOUGH TO TIME INTO SPECIFIC TAF SITES. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG 09Z-13Z AND REDUCED VSBYS IN TSRA. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...MRD oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 131 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 .AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST. IN THE NEXT 6-9 HRS...THE NAM SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING. RUC DOES SHOW SOME WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850MB MOISTURE CONV OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA SO SOME CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...WITH PROBABILITY SO LOW...HAVE OPTED TO JUST PUT CB IN THE TAFS...AND NOT MENTION TSRA FOR THE NEXT 9 HOURS. UNLIKE WED...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY UPR SUPPORT FOR STORMS THU AFTN. NO UPR WAVE MOVING THRU LIKE WED SO...ANY FOCUS FOR STORMS WL LIKELY BE FROM LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES. WL THEREFORE GO WITH PROB30 TSRA 18-24Z FOR ALL SITES AS CONVECTION WL BE WIDELY SCT AND TOUGH TO TIME INTO SPECIFIC TAF SITES. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG 09Z-13Z AND REDUCED VSBYS IN TSRA. && .SHORT TERM (TGNT THRU FRI NGT)... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WX THE NXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FA RMNS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY WARM AND MOIST SLY WINDS. THESE WINDS CIRCULATION ARND PERSISTENT BERNUDA HI. COULD SEE SCT TSRA JUST ABT ANY TIME DURING THE PD WITH THE BEST CHCS COMING IN THE AFT AND EVE THE NXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATEST 88D SHOWG SUM SCT STORMS JUST TO THE S OF FA AND WL PROB SEE THIS ACTIVITY EXPAND INTO AREA AS THE AFT PROGRESSES. SVR THREAT NOT THERE TDA AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WL BE WELCOMED MOST LOCATIONS. HV CONTINUED CHC WORDG OVER WRN 1/2 OF AREA PAST MIDNIGHT AS CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD MOVE IN LATER TGNT. MORE OF THE SAME ON THU AND COULD POSSIBLY SEE MORE CLOUDINESS TMRW THAN TDA. THIS WL KEEP TEMPS FM GETTING ANY WARMER THAN TDA. CONTINUING CHCS FOR T THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPCT TEMPS TO RMN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FM DAY TO DAY AND HV BUMPED TEMPS UP A LTTL FM GUID ON FRI. && .LONG TERM (SAT THRU WED)... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE BERMUDA HIGH RMNS OVER THE SERN U.S. AS A RESULT...A WARM AND MOIST SLY FLOW WL CONT. TEMPS WL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THRU MON WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON SUN. CDFNT WL FINALLY BRING A CHANGE IN THE WX ON TUE AFT AND EVENING. UNTIL THEN...CHC WORDG AND P/C SKIES. WL DRY FOR DRY WX ON WED. && && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...MRD oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 423 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005 .DISCUSSION... THE WESTERN EDGE OF MCS DEVELOPMENT HAS MOVED LITTLE TONIGHT CURRENTLY NEAR GREAT BAND AND PRATT KANSAS SUGGESTING A BALANCE HAS BEEN REACHED AMONG INFLOW/OUTFLOW/STRENGTH OF CAP. FARTHER EAST... WHERE THE CAP IS MUCH WEAKER...CONVECTION HAS MADE CONSIDERABLE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. MODELS UNFORTUNATELY OFFER ONLY LITTLE INSIGHT INTO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL SHORTCOMINGS AND POOR DATA INITIALIZATION DOMINATE THEIR FORECASTS. THE NAM MAINTAINS A CONSIDERABLY MORE WARM/MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE 12-00Z THAN THE OTHER MODELS RESULTING IN BIG CAPES/LOW CIN WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN ITS PERSISTENCE ON THE MCS CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A STRONGER CAP. RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS WOULD INDICATE THE MCS HAS ONLY A SLIM CHANCE OF DOING THIS. RATHER...CONTINUED SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WHERE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS HAD ALREADY OCCURRED SEEMS THE MOST PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. WILL THEREFORE FORECAST THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD TO GUTHRIE AND HOLDENVILLE WITH THE GUST FRONT MAKING IT PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RED RIVER BEFORE WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE INFLUENCE FROM THE MCS WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPS/EASTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ISOLATED STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE ORIGINATING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS NEAR A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. LATE DAY/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL RELY MOSTLY ON IF AND HOW MANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES AND ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH ONLY MINIMAL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES POPS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE DRYLINE AND FRONT WILL REMAIN FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FRIDAY/SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INFLUENCE THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGHS WILL BE MOST FELT. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 72 93 70 / 40 20 20 30 HOBART OK 96 71 94 68 / 30 30 30 40 WICHITA FALLS TX 96 72 94 70 / 20 20 30 30 GAGE OK 92 69 91 65 / 30 30 40 50 PONCA CITY OK 85 71 90 70 / 80 20 20 40 DURANT OK 91 72 92 71 / 40 20 20 20 .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. $$ JAMES ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 416 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION FOR BALANCE OF THE WEEK. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTORMS OVER NE IA ARE INITIATING AROUND 4-5 KFT WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN EVIDENT. CORFIDI VECTORS POINT NEWD INTO WI AS VERIFIED BY NEWD MOVEMENT OF PCPN. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WEAKENING AND CIN DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO WI. NEVERTHELESS...WILL ACCOUNT FOR ANY PCPN IN THE SOUTH THIS AM BUT MENTION ONLY PM CHANCE IN THE NORTH. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STALLED FRONT ACROSS NRN WI WHICH TURNS SWWD TO MSP AND INTO ERN NE. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO DRIFT TOWARD CNTRL/SRN WI TODAY PROVIDING ONLY VERY WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX OVER NW MO WILL DRIFT NEWD OVER SRN WI LATE THIS AFT AND INTO EVENING. 305K AND 310K ISENTROPIC MAPS INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX. THIS LIFT AND WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCT TSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WITH WET BULB ZERO HTS AROUND 10 KFT. DESPITE WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS...A SEVERE STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. A MOIST SLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND SW FLOW ALOFT THEN PREVAILS FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATM WILL BE WEAKLY CAPPED WITH MDT AMOUNTS OF CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS AND/OR BOUNDARIES WILL HELP INITIATE SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && GEHRING $$ wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1030 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005 .MORNING DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. HAVE HAD SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED TSRA THIS MORNING WITH SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON 12Z DVN SOUNDING. OF MORE CONCERN IS CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ENHANCED 500 MB FLOW NOTED IN WINCHESTER PROFILER THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS VORT MAX. SIMILAR SURFACE INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE OF PAST COUPLE DAYS ALSO. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN QUITE HIGH SO SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL BUT WILL NEED SOME WATCHING THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE INSTABILITY. NO CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST OTHER THAN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH NUDGING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. NDM && .AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS... SAME FOCUS IN TAFS TODAY...AS WINDS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEMAND CLOSE ATTENTION. AREA OF DYING CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ALOFT...AND AIDED BY 30 KT H85 JET ACROSS MO AND INTO MS VLY. ATMOSPHERE ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED...WITH INITIATION OCCURRING ALONG SEVERAL LINGERING OUTFLOWS DURING THE NIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN IL NEXT FEW HOURS AS LLJ WEAKENS AND RESULTING DECREASE IN THETA-E ADVECTION/MOIST CONVERGENCE. HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS AS TOO ISOLATED ATTM FOR EVEN VCTS. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH HEATING TODAY...AND SBCAPES AGAIN REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG WITH NO CIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRESENCE OF MANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY TODAY...SUGGEST SCT CONVECTION AGAIN LIKELY DEVELOPING THIS AFTN. 00Z UCAR 4KM RUC AND 06Z NAM/MESO-ETA RUNS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL OF TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG STATIONARY FRONT IN IA AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD. THUS AGAIN HAVE GONE WITH A VCTS DURG MOST UNSTABLE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD AGAIN SEE DIURNAL DECREASE TO ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY BECOMES FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL TSTMS NEB/IA. AS FOR WINDS...LIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...WHICH ALONG WITH DISRUPTION FROM LINGERING OUTFLOWS LEADING TO LIGHT VRBL...THOUGH GNRLY WSW WINDS THIS MORNING. FORECAST 950 HPA FLOW ONLY 5-10 KTS FROM SOUTH...SO EXPECTING SOUTHEASTERLY LAKE BREEZE DVLPMNT BY EARLY AFTN WHICH SHOULD AFFECT BOTH KORD/KMDW...AND EVEN A SLGT NE WIND AT KGYY. SHOULD GO BACK TO LGT SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVENING. RATZER && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORNING ZONES/GRIDS... 340 AM CDT OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO KY-TN-AR THIS MORNING. AMS STABILIZED SOME AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF IL ONLY IN LOW 60S. HOWEVER...15 TO 25 KT SWLY 850 FLOW SEEN IN PROFILERS. THIS APPEARS TO BE CAUSING PULSY CONVECTION OVER W AND CNTRL IL THIS MORNING. VERY SLOW NEWD DRIFT BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH WEAKENING 850 FLOW PROGGED THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE SOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUN AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS LAST TWO DAYS. SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN AFTERNOON BUT DOESN'T APPEAR LIKE THERE WILL BE ANYTHING ORGANIZED...WITH MAIN FOCUS SHIFTING INTO PLAINS. NEXT WAVE COMING OUT OF BIG WESTERN US TROF SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER UT MOVING NE. NEXT WAVE ROUNDING BASE OF TROF THROUGH CA TODAY AND INTO PLAINS FRI AND UPR MS VLY SAT. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD STAY N AND W OF AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DAILY. WESTERN SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING INTO UPPER MIDWEST MON. THIS IS THIRD DAY IN A ROW THAT GFS HAS ADVERTISED FRONT MOVING THROUGH IL ON MON. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION GROWING DAY BY DAY. TIMING THIS FAR OUT STILL NOT CERTAIN AND SURROUNDING OFFICES SEEM TO BE HOLDING ON TO PRECIP THROUGH MON NIGHT AND INTO TUE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/20 PERCENT POPS IN GRIDS BUT WILL GO WITH DRY FORECAST IN WORDING OF ZONES. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT REFRESHING. HOPE IT PANS OUT. WITH WEAK GRADIENT...EXPECT LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP TODAY. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ALLSOPP && .LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 625 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005 .AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS... SAME FOCUS IN TAFS TODAY...AS WINDS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEMAND CLOSE ATTENTION. AREA OF DYING CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ALOFT...AND AIDED BY 30 KT H85 JET ACROSS MO AND INTO MS VLY. ATMOSPHERE ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED...WITH INITIATION OCCURRING ALONG SEVERAL LINGERING OUTFLOWS DURING THE NIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN IL NEXT FEW HOURS AS LLJ WEAKENS AND RESULTING DECREASE IN THETA-E ADVECTION/MOIST CONVERGENCE. HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS AS TOO ISOLATED ATTM FOR EVEN VCTS. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH HEATING TODAY...AND SBCAPES AGAIN REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG WITH NO CIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRESENCE OF MANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY TODAY...SUGGEST SCT CONVECTION AGAIN LIKELY DEVELOPING THIS AFTN. 00Z UCAR 4KM RUC AND 06Z NAM/MESO-ETA RUNS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL OF TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG STATIONARY FRONT IN IA AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD. THUS AGAIN HAVE GONE WITH A VCTS DURG MOST UNSTABLE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD AGAIN SEE DIURNAL DECREASE TO ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY BECOMES FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL TSTMS NEB/IA. AS FOR WINDS...LIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...WHICH ALONG WITH DISRUPTION FROM LINGERING OUTFLOWS LEADING TO LIGHT VRBL...THOUGH GNRLY WSW WINDS THIS MORNING. FORECAST 950 HPA FLOW ONLY 5-10 KTS FROM SOUTH...SO EXPECTING SOUTHEASTERLY LAKE BREEZE DVLPMNT BY EARLY AFTN WHICH SHOULD AFFECT BOTH KORD/KMDW...AND EVEN A SLGT NE WIND AT KGYY. SHOULD GO BACK TO LGT SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVENING. RATZER && .DISCUSSION FOR MORNING ZONES/GRIDS... OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO KY-TN-AR THIS MORNING. AMS STABILIZED SOME AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF IL ONLY IN LOW 60S. HOWEVER...15 TO 25 KT SWLY 850 FLOW SEEN IN PROFILERS. THIS APPEARS TO BE CAUSING PULSY CONVECTION OVER W AND CNTRL IL THIS MORNING. VERY SLOW NEWD DRIFT BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH WEAKENING 850 FLOW PROGGED THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE SOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUN AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS LAST TWO DAYS. SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN AFTERNOON BUT DOESN'T APPEAR LIKE THERE WILL BE ANYTHING ORGANIZED...WITH MAIN FOCUS SHIFTING INTO PLAINS. NEXT WAVE COMING OUT OF BIG WESTERN US TROF SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER UT MOVING NE. NEXT WAVE ROUNDING BASE OF TROF THROUGH CA TODAY AND INTO PLAINS FRI AND UPR MS VLY SAT. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD STAY N AND W OF AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DAILY. WESTERN SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING INTO UPPER MIDWEST MON. THIS IS THIRD DAY IN A ROW THAT GFS HAS ADVERTISED FRONT MOVING THROUGH IL ON MON. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION GROWING DAY BY DAY. TIMING THIS FAR OUT STILL NOT CERTAIN AND SURROUNDING OFFICES SEEM TO BE HOLDING ON TO PRECIP THROUGH MON NIGHT AND INTO TUE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/20 PERCENT POPS IN GRIDS BUT WILL GO WITH DRY FORECAST IN WORDING OF ZONES. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT REFRESHING. HOPE IT PANS OUT. WITH WEAK GRADIENT...EXPECT LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP TODAY. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ALLSOPP && .LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 620 AM EST THU JUN 9 2005 .AVIATION... 12Z-12Z. UPR LVL HIGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTN HOURS...IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO FIND SIGNIFICANT FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC40 TAKE A WEAK VORT OVER CNTRL INDIANA TOWARD SE MICHIGAN BY 00Z. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE CAUSE OF SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KFWA DURING THE AFTN HOURS. NEAR KSBN...THE NAM/RUC40 IS SHOWING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE EFFECT...WHICH COULD PROVIDE A BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN. ALL IN ALL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RANGE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...AND THIS IS STILL JUST SMALL ENOUGH TO NOT PLACE A TEMPO TSRA AT BOTH KSBN AND KFWA ATTM. LATER FCST SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WEAK SFC MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENTS. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS LEFTOVER. AS A SIDE NOTE...KFWA WILL EXPERIENCE A LITTLE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DUE TO MIST/HAZE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPR LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD DURING THE SHORT TERM...WHILE A PREDOMINANT TROF CONTINUES OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE BEST CHC/S FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FEATURES ON THE MESOSCALE WILL DICTATE THIS. WILL GO ALONG WITH THE NAM FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE...WHICH TAKES A WEAK VORT OVER CNTRL INDIANA ATTM...TO A POSITION NEAR DETROIT BY 00Z. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE MECHANISM THAT TRIGGERS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACRS THE ERN CWFA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE...THE NAM IS INDICATING THAT A WEAK SFC TO 850 MB TROF WILL DEVELOP FROM LOWER MICHIGAN...SWWD INTO CNTRL INDIANA BY THE MID AFTN HOURS. THE TROF IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT BEING SAID...THIS SHOULD BE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA. ATTM...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE THE 40 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWFA...MAINLY FOR THE AFTN HOURS. WITH A WEAK WIND FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...SO THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR TONIGHT...SFC TO 850 MB TROF AXIS WILL DISINTEGRATE WITH LACK OF SFC HEATING...AND THUS...SO SHOULD THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL MAINTAIN A 30 POP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO COOL ABOUT 1 DEGREES CELSIUS TODAY...SO THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM REACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. STILL...IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE WARM AROUND 70 DEGREES. LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEAT GOES ON. MID LEVELS OVER NOAM HAVE SETTLED INTO A STABLE AND PERSISTENT CONFIGURATION WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DEEP BUT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MECHANISM IN THE MODEL DATA THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WILL USE THE LOW LEVEL JET POSITION AS A PROXY FOR MCS ACTIVITY AND BOTH NAM/GFS FOCUS THE NOSE OF THE PLAINS NOCTURNAL LLJ WEST OF THE CWA FROM IOWA TO KANSAS THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS. SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT OF THESE MCS ONCE THEY BECOME DETACHED FROM THE NOCTURNAL LLJ DIFFICULT TO DEPICT WITH THE OHIO VALLEY UNDER THE MIDDLE OF A LARGE THICKNESS RIDGE IN WHICH 850-500MB THERMAL WIND VALUES ARE GENERALLY 5KTS OR LESS. ANY REMAINING MCS ACTIVITY EACH DAY WILL LIKELY BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN FOCUSED WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. NAM/GFS HINTING AT THIS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVES SLIPPING NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. THESE WEAK SYSTEMS MAY BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE. AT THIS TIME RANGE THIS IS ALL JUST SPECULATION WITH CONVECTION EACH DAY BEING STRONGLY MODULATED BY MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVELY GENERATED FEATURES...WHICH CANNOT BE RESOLVED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS EACH PERIOD RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS LENGTHY RAIN FREE PERIODS. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL NOW SHOWING A GRADUAL EASING OF THIS PATTERN BY EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. HIGH HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL EVENTUALLY BRIDGE WEST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTPAC. MEANWHILE MORE ZONAL AND FASTER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SUPPRESSION OF THE WESTERLY FLOW AND EVENTUAL FROPA TO EASE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. 00Z/09 GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN DRIVING A FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON TUES. PREFER THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION OF SINKING A MORE E/W ORIENTED FRONT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THIS BOUNDARY SINKS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SINKS SOUTH ATOP VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN RESPONSE TO THE PATTERN ADJUSTMENT. SPC EXPERIMENTAL DAY 4 THROUGH 8 OUTLOOK AND CPC HAZARDS ASSESSMENT BOTH POINT TOWARD THIS SCENARIO. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IN...NONE. .MI...NONE. .OH...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. && $$ AVIATION/SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 940 AM MDT THU JUN 9 2005 .DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND KIOWA COUNTY COLORADO...SOUTH OF ARAPAHOE IN CHEYENNE COUNTY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW TO NEAR GOODLAND AND OBERLIN. AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARD GOODLAND IT WILL DRAG A DRYLINE INTO EXTREME WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. IN ADDITION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT NEAR GOODLAND...AND THIS COULD BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD...MAINLY DUE TO HEATING AND MIXING EASTWARD OF THE DRYLINE. FEEL THE GFS IS FAR TOO AGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE TO NEAR HILL CITY. PREFER A COMBINATION OF THE RUC AND ETA...WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE ETA...WHICH KEEPS THE DRYLINE ALONG HIGHWAY 27 AT 21Z. ANYWHERE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BE AFTERNOON. RUC IS PRODUCING ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS FROM HILL CITY TO GOVE AROUND 00Z. THE ETA IS A BIT MORE MARGINAL...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY...BUT INCREASED TO THE WINDY CATEGORY IN THE ZONES. AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO HAVE PULLED THE 40 POPS ALL THE WAY WEST INTO COLORADO. CONVECTION WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY FORM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS A STRONG WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF IN ARIZONA. EXPECT LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN TRI STATE REGION. TYPICALLY...AREAS FARTHER EAST ARE MORE STRONGLY CAPPED...BUT THERMO CONDITIONS MAY FAVOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA TODAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR. DEEP RICH MOISTURE ON THE DODGE CITY SOUNDING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...AND THE ETA SHARPENS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ZERO CIN REMAINING. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WARM ADVECTION/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTING THINGS TO START BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KS...NONE. .NE...NONE. .CO...NONE. && $$ BURKE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1220 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 .UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HERE IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER...DTX 1.44 INCHES AT 12Z. ALSO A VORT MAX IN NORTHERN INDIANA...DRIFTING NORTHEAST COULD HELP PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WIND FIELDS SUPPORT PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER NOT OUT OF THE POSSIBILITY WITH CAPE VALUES NOW OVER 2000 J/KG...BUT WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE HIGH....APPROACHING 13000 FT AT DTX...WITH THE RUC KEEPING THEM HIGH THROUGH THE DAY. BASED ON MODIFIED SOUNDINGS...THE CAP SHOULD BE GONE BY 200 PM. SO WILL KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON. ON A SIDE NOTE...THE 12Z GFS INITIALIZED REALLY BAD UPSTREAM AT 850 MB...WITH DEWPOINT ERRORS APPROACHING 10 DEG C. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MJS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY ISSUED BY NWS BURLINGTON VT 1129 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 WILL OPT TO UPDATE THE GOING FCST TO MAKE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD. WFO BTV BACKING UP WFO ALY DURING A COMPUTER UPGRADE AT ALY TODAY. .SYNOPSIS... WF TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE FA TODAY. BEST UPR FORCING TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FA TODAY. && .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... VIS SAT PIX AND SFC OBS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE LOW-LVL FG HAS MIXED OUT ACRS THE FA ATTM. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE NRN TIER ZONES TODAY. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. BASED ON 12-13Z RUC40 AND LATEST NAM DATA...ENVIRONMENT ACRS THE FA LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST MODERATELY SHEARED WITH CAPES BLW 2500 J/KG AND WET-BULB ZERO HTS OF 10-12.0 KFT. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA TODAY LOOK TO BE 1.5-1.7". CONVECTION EXPECTED ACRS THE NRN PORTION OF THE FA BY LATER TODAY. +RA A POSSIBILITY ACRS THE FA WITH ANY TSRA. SOME HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THOUGH IN ANY MORE INTENSE CONVECTION. PREVIOUS GRIDS HAD THE MENTION OF +RA POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS AND WILL LEAVE THAT ALONE FOR NOW. WRKZFP OUT. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS ASAP. LATER... && .HYDROLOGY... 24-HR QPE ACRS THE FA (THRU 15Z TODAY) APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY BLW 0.5"...WITH SOME ISOLATED 1"+ READINGS ACRS AREAS THAT RECEIVED CONVECTION YESTERDAY. MORE +RA POSSIBLE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND INTO EARLY TONITE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 440 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005) SYNOPSIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS REGION...RIGHT OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WHICH HAS BEEN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN CONTINUED VERY WARM HUMID WEATHER. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN. A VERY WARM/HOT HUMID DAY AND MUGGY NIGHT. CONTINUED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS FOCUSING MECHANISM. PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM 00Z/THU KALB SOUNDING 1.85 INCHES...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP...REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED. BERMUDA HIGH HOLDING ON STRONG. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN HIGH. THE GFS INCREASES PW TO AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY/TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION. AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONVECTION TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AND THEREFORE REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL NOT BE AS DRAMATIC. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL AROUND NOONTIME AND THEN BECOME SOUTH AROUND 5KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVENING. && FIRE WEATHER...MANY AREAS RECEIVED AT LEAST SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN. EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY THIS MORNING WITH VALUES BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT...MIN RH TODAY 45 TO 60 PERCENT...AGAIN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MAX RH 85 TO 100 PERCENT AND MIN RH ON FRIDAY OF 45 TO 65 PERCENT. THUS FIRE DANGER CONCERNS GREATLY DIMINISHED. HYDROLOGY...VERY HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS PARTS OF THE HSA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WHICH RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS BUT WAS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS. RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OCCURRED IN A NARROW BAND ORIENTED ENE TO WSW FROM WINDHAM AND BENNINGTON COUNTIES IN VERMONT THROUGH SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NEW YORK AND THEN BACK ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WITH MID SUMMER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT WEEK AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS SO HIGHLY VARIABLE QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED. THE MAIN CONCERN GOING FORWARD IN TIME WOULD BE FOR ANY TRAINING OF CELLS AND ALSO AREAS WHICH RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NY...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ UPDATED SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/HYDROLOGY...MURRAY ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1045 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... NO NEED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO REWORK WORDING. FORECAST HIGHS LOOK ON TARGET AND LIKELY POPS (CHANCE IN THE SE) ALSO LOOK DECENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS COOL ENOUGH ALOFT TO PROVIDE ENOUGH CAPE ONCE TEMPS WARM TO AFTERNOON MAXES. ANY STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING SO THEY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH. RXR && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM... WDLY SCT -TSRA CONTINUE ACRS ERN ZONES...HAD A RPT OF TREES DOWN IN COOPERSTOWN ARND 11:15 PM. MORE UNSETTLED WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR TDA. WATER VAPOR AND RUC SHOW A VORT MAX OVER INDIANA (SAT LOOP SUGGESTS IT IS LIKELY AN MCV) WHICH WILL MOVE EWD TWDS THE FCST AREA LATE TDA AND TNGT. MEANWHILE, ENHANCED TROPICAL MSTR WILL BE MOVG NEWD INTO THE RGN FROM THE SW WITH SOME WEAK RIPPLES. AREA LEAST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE FAR SE ZONES (WRN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS) WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE FCST (REFLECTED IN LOWER K INDICES). OTRW XPCT SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS TO FIRE UP LATER THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG WITH RGN FIRMLY IN THE 850 THETA-E AXIS. SVR SETUP NOT GREAT BUT A FEW SVR PULSE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, SIMILIAR TO YDA. WILL SHOW A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM SE TO NW, WITH HIGHEST VALUES (LIKELY) ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES INTO WRN MOHAWK VLY. XPCT MOST ACTIVITY TO DSPT LATE EVNG BUT WITH REMANTS OF S/WV LINGERING AND FACT THAT SCT CONVECTION IS ONGOING TNGT ACRS THE FCST AREA AND UPSTREAM, WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS. MORE OF THE SAME FOR TMRW AS THE DIRTY BERMUDA HIGH PTRN HANGS TUFF. MDLS HINT AT MORE RIPPLES IN THE UPR FLOW WHICH COULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY. WILL USE HIGH CHC POPS AND SCT TERMINOLOGY FOR FRI. LOOKS COOLER BUT WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER MAV/MET AND WARMER FWC. LONG RANGE (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY) WESTERN ATLANTIC AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL KEEP THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE BREAKING DOWN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. KEPT BASICALLY THE SAME EXTENDED FORECAST GOING WITH CHC POPS FOR CONVECTION DURING THE DAY AROUND THE PERIMETER OF LARGE BERMUDA HIGH AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIODS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S...THEN COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. AVIATION (09/00Z -10/00Z)... VFR WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT VALLEY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND BRING FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR/MVFR AT KELM/KUCA/KAVP. THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WITH GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH A SHRA/TSRA CAN NOT BE RULED...ESPECIALLY AT KSYR/KUCA. -CEMPA && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1050 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 .UPDATE... WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER IND THIS MORNING. RUC SHOWS THIS AS A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN OH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVEN SHOWS UP AS A TROUGH DOWN IN THE 850 MB WIND FIELD. WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING IN OUR CURRENT WARM AIRMASS ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION OVER IA/IND IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN OH. THIS MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FEATURE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH OH. HAVE BUMPED UP THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION UP A NOTCH...TO 50 PERCENT. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME QPF. QPF AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY UNDERDONE HOWEVER DUE TO LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND ABUNDANT/AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ZAFF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... && .AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... REALLY TOUGH TO TIME CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT...THERE ARE LIKELY SEVERAL LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES THAT WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION TODAY. HAVE BASICALLY KEPT THE SAME GENERAL IDEA IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH PROB/TEMPO TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING. GUIDANCE IS INSISTING ON A LITTLE MORE BR OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASED DWPTS. HAVE HIT BR A LITTLE HARDER AFT 06Z TONIGHT. OTEHRWISE VFR CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI NGT)... THE COMBINATION OF PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...NUMEROUS WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVES...WARM TEMPERATURES FROM DAY TIME HEATING...AND SCATTERED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IS SUFFICIENT TO MEET ALL THE INGREDIENTS TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS (INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND LIFTING MECHANISM) OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP FLOW DIRECTLY OUT OF THE GULF TO CONTINUALLY FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. SPC OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 5 PERCENT FOR HAIL AND WIND EVENTS OCCURRING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO...AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE IN PRODUCING SEVERE CRITERIA. CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ATMOSPHERE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD SO WILL STICK WITH THE 60 PERCENT OR SO CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. I MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 4 PERIODS BY RAISING THEM A COUPLE DEGREES. MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING THE WARMTH AS 850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AROUND 18 DEGREES C THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. I AM EXPECTING DAY TIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TODAY AND FRIDAY AND KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM (SAT THRU WED)... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE BERMUDA HIGH RMNS OVER THE SERN U.S. AS A RESULT...A WARM AND MOIST SLY FLOW WL CONT. TEMPS WL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THRU MON WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON SUN. CDFNT WL FINALLY BRING A CHANGE IN THE WX ON TUE AFT AND EVENING. UNTIL THEN...CHC WORDG AND P/C SKIES. WL DRY FOR DRY WX ON WED. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...MRD oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1107 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005 .UPDATE...LARGE SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD ACROSS OK THIS MORNING..AND SRLY LLJ OF 20- 30 KTS CONTS TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR IN CENT OK. ADDITIONAL..MAINLY WEAK..TSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST JUST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL THE LLJ WEAKENS/BACKS 17-20Z TIME FRAME. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHUD CONT TO PUSH SLOWLY SWD I35 AND EAST..BUT SHUD STALL AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NWD AND WEAKEN ACROSS WRN OK. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY AXIS TO DEVELOP BACK NWD WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON. DRYLINE SHUD MIX EWD TO JUST E OF THE CAPROCK BY MID AFTERNOON..WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTING THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE INVOF THE ERN OK PANHANDLE OR SW KS. CAP WILL AGAIN BE STRONG TODAY..BUT EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO PUNCH A COUPLE OF HOLES FROM WRN KS SWD INTO THE ERN PANHANDLES. SINCE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF THE OUN CWA..IT MAY TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR STORMS TO REACH WRN OK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT BETTER TODAY..AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY THIS SHUD RESULT IN SUPERCELLS..GIVEN SUSTAINED STORMS. WEAK MID- LEVEL STORM RELATIVE FLOW EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HP STORMS WITH TIME WITH A GIANT HAIL/WIND THREAT. ANOTHER MCS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT INTO OK. UPDATES ALREADY AVAILABLE. MILLER && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005) DISCUSSION... THE WESTERN EDGE OF MCS DEVELOPMENT HAS MOVED LITTLE TONIGHT CURRENTLY NEAR GREAT BAND AND PRATT KANSAS SUGGESTING A BALANCE HAS BEEN REACHED AMONG INFLOW/OUTFLOW/STRENGTH OF CAP. FARTHER EAST... WHERE THE CAP IS MUCH WEAKER...CONVECTION HAS MADE CONSIDERABLE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. MODELS UNFORTUNATELY OFFER ONLY LITTLE INSIGHT INTO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL SHORTCOMINGS AND POOR DATA INITIALIZATION DOMINATE THEIR FORECASTS. THE NAM MAINTAINS A CONSIDERABLY MORE WARM/MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE 12-00Z THAN THE OTHER MODELS RESULTING IN BIG CAPES/LOW CIN WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN ITS PERSISTENCE ON THE MCS CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A STRONGER CAP. RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS WOULD INDICATE THE MCS HAS ONLY A SLIM CHANCE OF DOING THIS. RATHER...CONTINUED SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WHERE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS HAD ALREADY OCCURRED SEEMS THE MOST PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. WILL THEREFORE FORECAST THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD TO GUTHRIE AND HOLDENVILLE WITH THE GUST FRONT MAKING IT PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RED RIVER BEFORE WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE INFLUENCE FROM THE MCS WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPS/EASTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ISOLATED STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE ORIGINATING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS NEAR A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. LATE DAY/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL RELY MOSTLY ON IF AND HOW MANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES AND ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH ONLY MINIMAL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES POPS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE DRYLINE AND FRONT WILL REMAIN FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FRIDAY/SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INFLUENCE THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGHS WILL BE MOST FELT. && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 958 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... AREA BETWEEN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE AND CENTRAL GULF UPPER TROUGH ...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. AT SURFACE AERA ON W SIDE OF ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH A LIGHT SSE WIND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHLLS...AND HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER GRIDS UP CONSIDERABLY. SOME BREAKS NOTED EVEN IN THIS CLOUD BELT...AND EXPECT BREAKS TO INCREASE AS WEAK MIXING OCCURS. TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND FORECAST AND GUIDANCE IN MTS...MAYBE A DEGREE LOW GA/SC FOOTHILLS...AND ABOUT TWO DEGREES WARM I-77 AND I-40 IN NC. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPERATURES IN THOSE DIRECTIONS. DEW POINTS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST...AND USED NEW ADJUSTED MAV GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THIS TREND. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS TODAY. MORNING POPS AGREE WELL WITH RADAR TRENDS...FAVORING BETTER POPS SW OVER NE. BY NOON POPS FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN CLOUDS BREAKS. BY AFTERNOON BLUE RIDGE AND PIEDMONT FAVORED IN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND BETTER INSATBILITY...WITH RELATIVE RAIN SHADOW ALONG TN LINE. INSTATBILITY MORE LIMITED THAN IN RECENT DAYS WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPE...AND MAIN CONCERN WILL BE EXCESSIVE RAIN IN SLOWLY/UPSLOPE MOVING CONVECTION. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1010 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON KGSP 88-D IN A WANING MODE AT PRESENT...WITH DENSE COVERAGE REMAINING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...NEW CELLS DEVELOPING IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA. KFFC 88-D SHOWS MULTIPLE CELLS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND SHIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA AREA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING INDICATES A WEAK WIND SHIFT BETWEEN KFFC AND KBMX RAOB SITES...IMPLYING PRESENCE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. MEANWHILE...KGSP 88-D VELOCITY AZIMUTH DISPLAY SHOWS A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE NEW PROLIFERATION OF SMALL CELLS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. BOTH RUC AND LATEST 12KM NAM SEEM TO BELIEVE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH WITH OUR MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO KEEP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS WITHIN OUR CWFA BORDER OVERNIGHT. FOR THE UPDATE...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE TWO NORTHERN-MOST FOOTHILL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES AND THE TWO FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT ZONES (ALEXANDER/CATAWBA); THESE ARE LOCATIONS ALMOST IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION COVERING THE FOOTHILLS AT PRESENT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL FEATURE 50 POPS FOR THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS...IREDELL/MECKLENBURG AND THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FINALLY ALL OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...IN ANTICIPATION THAT WEAK BUT SEVERAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THOSE LOCATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN INDICATED AS 40 PERCENT FOR ALL OTHER LOCATIONS...INCLUDING OUR EASTERN MOST FOUR ADJACENT TO THE RALEIGH FORECAST OFFICE...AND FOR CENTRAL UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA FROM GREENVILLE AND PICKENS MOUNTAINS...SOUTH TO LAURENS AND GREENWOOD. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND NOT MUCH LIKELIHOOD THAT THE MERCURY WILL VARY MUCH FROM WHAT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. MOST LOCATIONS GOT RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY...AND AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT...SOME OF THE FOG MAY BECOME FAIRLY DENSE AND SO WILL ADVERTISE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 309 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... WEAK SHORT WAVE OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHORT WAVE...HIGH TERRAIN...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PLAY AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM 1K OVER THE MTNS TO 2500 J/KG EAST WITH NORTHWARD STORM MOTIONS AROUND 5 KTS. WITH PW/S > 1.5" AND K-INDEX IN THE L30S COMBINED WITH THE SLOW PROPAGATION...EXPECT THAT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT. ISO MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MODERATE CAPE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...ICE GROWTH REGIONS ARE HIGH AND WBZ IS > 13K FEET. WILL FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING SEA BREEZE MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF MIDLANDS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT BY SUNRISE THU. ALSO...CONTINUED FLOW MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION A LITTLE LONGER TONIGHT AIDED BY UPSLOPE LIFT. WILL KEEP SCT POPS GOING UNTIL 10Z TONIGHT. LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS ON THE NAM LATE TONIGHT WILL SIGNAL ANOTHER FOG/STRATUS SITUATION. EXPECT THAT THE LOWEST VIS/CEILINGS WILL REMAIN EAST...WILL WORD PATCHY FOG AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. THU THROUGH SATURDAY...PATTERN REMAINS...WHILE ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THICKEN OVER THE CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BRING AN ENHANCED BAND OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS...WITH MOST OF THE FA UNDER LIKELY POPS. ATMOSPHERE MAY DRY A BIT ON SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL LOW APPROACHES THE MS DELTA...THIS LOW COULD BECOME T.S. ARLENE. EXPECT THAT SAT HIGHS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FRI AND KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE STARTS OUT JUST TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADES OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY. RIDGING WEAKENS TUESDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE SUNDAY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THRU WITH SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOIST SLY FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL KEEP CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION...SLIGHTLY BETTER OVER THE MTNS...UNTIL THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. STILL HAVE CHC POP WED...BUT MORE OUTSIDE OF THE DIURNAL TIME FRAME WITH THE FRONT. OPERATIONAL MEX HIGHS HAVE COME BACK TOWARD ITS PREVIOUS NUMBERS...MORE IN LINE WITH GOING FCST. DID GO TOWARD THE HIGHER OF THE OPERATIONAL TEMPS OR ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WHICH ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GOING FCST. AVIATION... ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA. HAVE VCTS ALL SITES...WITH SHORT TEMPOS FOR TSRA AT THE START OF THE TAFS WHERE THUNDER IS IMMINENT. WILL AMEND FOR NEW/ADDITIONAL CELLS AS NECESSARY. MDLS WERE OVERDONE REGARDING LOW CLOUDS LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT THEY ARE AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SLY FLOW...HOWEVER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN HIGH. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE KEEPING VCTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...THEN BRINGING IN MVFR FOG. DID TEMPO SOME IFR FOG AT KHKY AND IFR FOG/MVFR CIGS AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK...IN LINE WITH CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. DEBRIS CLOUDS EARLY SHOULD KEEP SITES FROM SOCKING IN...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY. TEMPOED IN SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AFTER SUNRISE AT LOCATIONS WHERE THEY OCCURRED THIS MORNING. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAT sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 245 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005 .DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS... FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS TAKEN SOME TIME TO RECOVER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF YESTERDAYS MCS AND ACARS/RUC DATA STILL INDICATING FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT 19Z. INTERESTING SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING MCV ACROSS EASTERN IOWA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. TO THIS POINT...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING JUST SOME MID LEVEL ECHOES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MCV CENTER ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING IF ANY WEAK FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV WILL INTERACT WITH LAKE BREEZE. HOWEVER...EXPECTING THIS TO MAINLY BE THE FOCUS NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE SERLY LAKE BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND TO A GREATER EXTENT. OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR TSRA WITH HIGHEST CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING TOWARD RFD AREA CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE MCV. PROFILER/ACARS DATA SHOWING SOME ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MCV BUT SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW EFFECTIVE THE VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF THIS SHEAR PROFILE WOULD BE FOR ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. FOCUS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY WEST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD SET UP FAIRLY ACTIVE NIGHT AGAIN IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTH ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE SHOULD GET THINGS ACTIVE AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR ANY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT MAXES FROM THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WITH NO CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM EVIDENT AT THIS TIME WILL JUST KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AS A MORE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE GULF WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR TO WATCH FOR SATURDAY. PERHAPS A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ADVANCE OF MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. MUCH SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE FOR MON-WED. LATEST GFS RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THIS TROUGH WITH NCEP ENSEMBLE MEANS EVEN SLOWER. THUS...WILL GO FOR TEMPS A TAD WARMER FOR TUESDAY WITH SLOWER FROPA. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THIS PACKAGE. .AVIATION... IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY SURFACE OR LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS VERY WARM AND HUMID BUT THERE IS NO FOCUS. THE LAKE BREEZE IS STILL CLOSE TO THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE IS A CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA THAT CAN BE SEEN WITH THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. A LINE OF WELL DEVELOP CLOUDS IS ALSO SEEN ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE. IF THESE DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS LATER THEY MAY MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE TAFS. WILL LEAVE THE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL ADD A LITTLE EFFECT OF THE LAKE BREEZE TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST WIND 150 AT ORD AND MDW AND 030 FOR GYY. && .LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV 1105 AM PDT THU JUN 9 2005 .UPDATE... AIR MASS HAS EVOLVED TO A CONVECTIVE REGIME THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND VERY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S FROM THE 12Z RENO SOUNDING HAVE ALREADY BEEN EXCEEDED. LAPS DATA AT 17Z INDICATED CAPE BETWEEN 300-600 WITH NO CIN AND LI NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. THE 12Z MODEL DATA VARIES ON INSTBY WITH THE NAM AND RUC BEING MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LI VALUES BETWEEN 0 AND -2 WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LI VALUES BETWEEN 0 AND +1. WHILE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AND THE CAPE PROFILE IS THIN WITH SOME CAPPING BETWEEN 500 AND 400 MB...DAYTIME HEATING AND EVENTUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. AREAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AT THIS TIME INCLUDING MINERAL AND SOUTHERN MONO COUNTIES...THE WEST CENTRAL BASIN...AND FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME CB BUILDUPS...AND THESE ZONES WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED TSTMS THRU THIS AFTERNOON IN A FORECAST UPDATE TO BE SENT SHORTLY. MJD && .PREV DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... SHOWERS CONTINUES TO FALL FROM THE TAHOE AREA NORTH AND EAST...ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE HAS DECREASED. NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE NRN CA COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TURN EAST OVER CENTRAL AND SRN CA/SRN NV LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERY PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA AND WRN NV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER COASTAL AND CENTRAL CA THIS MORNING...AND WILL MOVE INTO MONO COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING...ABOVE 8000 FEET...MAY ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY IN PRECIP TODAY. TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH NV BY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE SIERRA AND WRN NV FOR FRIDAY. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ALSO HAVE 120KT JET CARVING OUT THE BACK OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO COASTAL CA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NV ON SATURDAY. JET DYNAMICS WILL HELP TO INCREASE PRECIP AND INSTABILITY. ADDED ONLY SHOWERS FOR THE TIME BEING FROM TAHOE AND RENO NORTH...BUT STABILITY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED ON FRIDAY FOR ADDITION OF TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MEETING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY UNDER TROUGHINESS AND CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BENINATO .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MODELS AGREE ON A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AND TUES. AS A RESULT...HAVE WARMED TEMPS TO NEAR 90 IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS WITH 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE SIERRA. WITH THE WARM TEMPS...AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MONO-MINERAL CONVERGENCE ZONE TUES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. ON WED...GFS/EURO BRING NEXT TROUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SOME UNDERSTANDABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPS BEGINNING TO TREND DOWN WITH NO PRECIP. WALLMANN && .AVIATION... STILL A FEW SHOWERS AROUND AS FINAL SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA MOVES SOUTHEAST. MOST SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE BUT MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH. EXPECT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTERWARD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE KTRK TONIGHT WHERE FOG WILL LIKELY FORM DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS. WALLMANN && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NV...FLOOD WARNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR THE HUMBOLDT RIVER ABOVE RYE PATCH RESERVOIR...NVZ004. .CA...NONE. && $$ nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 135 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 22Z...THEN DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FROM 18Z-22Z. EXPECT SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE SLIGHTLY. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. && .UPDATE... WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER IND THIS MORNING. RUC SHOWS THIS AS A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN OH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVEN SHOWS UP AS A TROUGH DOWN IN THE 850 MB WIND FIELD. WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING IN OUR CURRENT WARM AIRMASS ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION OVER IA/IND IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN OH. THIS MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FEATURE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH OH. HAVE BUMPED UP THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION UP A NOTCH...TO 50 PERCENT. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME QPF. QPF AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY UNDERDONE HOWEVER DUE TO LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND ABUNDANT/AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ZAFF && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... .SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI NGT)... THE COMBINATION OF PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...NUMEROUS WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVES...WARM TEMPERATURES FROM DAY TIME HEATING...AND SCATTERED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IS SUFFICIENT TO MEET ALL THE INGREDIENTS TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS (INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND LIFTING MECHANISM) OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP FLOW DIRECTLY OUT OF THE GULF TO CONTINUALLY FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. SPC OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 5 PERCENT FOR HAIL AND WIND EVENTS OCCURRING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO...AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE IN PRODUCING SEVERE CRITERIA. CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ATMOSPHERE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD SO WILL STICK WITH THE 60 PERCENT OR SO CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. I MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 4 PERIODS BY RAISING THEM A COUPLE DEGREES. MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING THE WARMTH AS 850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AROUND 18 DEGREES C THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. I AM EXPECTING DAY TIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TODAY AND FRIDAY AND KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM (SAT THRU WED)... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE BERMUDA HIGH RMNS OVER THE SERN U.S. AS A RESULT...A WARM AND MOIST SLY FLOW WL CONT. TEMPS WL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THRU MON WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON SUN. CDFNT WL FINALLY BRING A CHANGE IN THE WX ON TUE AFT AND EVENING. UNTIL THEN...CHC WORDG AND P/C SKIES. WL DRY FOR DRY WX ON WED. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...WFO BUF oh