SPC AC 151558
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW
EFK 35 W EEN 30 NNE EWR 25 ESE IPT 10 N ELM 20 WNW SYR 15 WSW ART.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE
ISN 35 SSE SDY 35 S REJ 40 NNW MHN EAR 30 ENE MHK 20 NW JLN 25 WSW
FYV 25 NE MLC 25 NNE ADM 10 NW LTS 45 SE AMA 20 E TCC 45 N LVS 55
NNE ALS FCL 45 NNE CPR 20 W SHR 15 ESE WEY 20 SSW DLN 40 NW DLN 25
SSW GTF 40 NE LWT 30 WSW GGW 70 N GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DUG 45 ESE SOW
90 NW GUP 40 NW U17 35 NW U24 20 NNE TWF 35 WNW 27U 45 NE CTB

...CONT... 55 NNE MOT 25 NE BIS 35 NE PIR 35 SSW MHE 45 N FNB 25 SE
OJC 25 W SGF 20 SE FYV 30 S PGO 25 S PRX 20 NNE TYR 30 S SHV 40 NW
HEZ 10 ENE SEM 35 NNE MCN 20 SSE RDU 25 NE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 W CAR 20 WSW BHB

...CONT... 15 ESE NEL 35 SW AOO 20 ESE ZZV 40 WSW MFD 20 SW ARB 70
SE OSC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
NWWD INTO EASTERN MT...

...SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGING VERY LITTLE AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS
OFF WEST COAST AND COLD UPPER LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO CONTINUES WITH
SOME DEEPENING. S/WV TROUGHS MOVING INLAND PAC NW THEN INTO SRN
CANADA AS A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS OVER ROCKIES.
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER SERN CANADA WITH COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR GRADUALLY REPLACING THE VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS THAT HAS
BEEN OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE NERN U.S.
A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS RETURNING NWD THRU CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING E OF ROCKIES.

...NERN U.S...
THE AREA OF INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS IS
SHRINKING FROM THE W ACROSS THE NERN U.S. AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEING CONFINED TO ERN NY/NERN PA AS COOL MARINE AIR REMAINS OVER
MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES
FROM 500-1000 J/KG...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WITH STRONG RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONGOING SRN INTO CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THIS AM...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON. MLCAPES EXPECTED TO CLIMB AT LEAST TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S. UNDER NWLY FLOW REGIME E OF ROCKIES RIDGE 30-40KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN
THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY MID AFTERNOON
IN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF ERN CO/WRN KS AND THEN PROPAGATE SEWD WITH
PRIMARY THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS'S BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SRN PLAINS WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
CONTINUING AFTER DARK.

...MT/NERN WY...
WHILE ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD INTO CANADA...ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES PAC NW LATE TONIGHT. A MOIST SWLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS MT TODAY WITH SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INTO ERN
MT. WITH GOOD HEATING IN SRN AND ERN MT TODAY...MDT INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS PLAINS OF ERN
MT/NERN WY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.

...GULF COASTAL AREAS...
A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS GULF COAST WILL SUPPORT
A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
LIKELY VICINITY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.