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FXUS04 KWBC 100947
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
547 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2009
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 10/1200 UTC THRU MAR 13/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
THE 06Z MDL RUNS WERE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS..SO
MADE ONLY VRY MINOR CHGS
TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF.
DAY 1...
...SRN PLAINS AND MID MS/LWR OH VLYS ENEWD INTO WRN NEW ENG AND
NRN PLAINS ENEWD INTO THE NWRN GTLKS...
XCP FOR SOME VRY MINOR TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS..THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS ARE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE MAJOR H5
SYS PULLING NEWD OUT CNTRL GT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
GTLKS BY WED MRNG..WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS LIKELY WITH THIS SYS FM
THE SRN PLAINS ENEWD INTO NEW ENG..AND HVY SNOWS XPCD FM THE NRN
PLAINS ENEWD INTO THE NWRN GTLKS. AHD OF THE H5 SYS..A STG
SWLY LLJ AOA 50KTS WL CONT TO SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE AND LCLY HVY
OVRRNG RNFL EVENT FM THE MIDWEST ENEWD INTO WRN NEW ENG..WITH PWS
ABV 1.25 INCHES BEING PULLED AS FAR N AND E AS THE OH VLY ON
TUE..AND GTR THAN 1 INCH PWS REACHING WRN NEW ENG TUE NGT. SYS WL
BE A STEADY MOVR..BUT STRENGTH OF INFLO AND HI MSTR AVBLTY SHLD
STILL SUPPORT SOME LCLY HVY RNFL AMTS..ESP VCNTY OF THE SERN
GTLKS. NAM AND GFS QPFS WERE ACTUALLY IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT
HERE..SO DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FM THEM AND XPC AN AXIS OF 1-2 INCH
RAINS NRN IN ENEWD INTO SWRN NY STATE. FARTHER TO THE S AND
W..CDFNT PUSHING THRU THE LWR OH AND MID MS VLYS AND SRN PLAINS
SHLD BE CNVCTVLY ACTIVE..ESP LTR TUE AFTN AND NGT..IN ZONE OF STG
LOW LVL CNVGNC..AND IN REGIONS OF MODEST HGT FALLS AND RT ENTRANCE
JET DYNAMICS. PREFER THE SLGTLY HVIER GFS QPF SOLN HERE OVR THE
NAM SOLN..GIVEN POOLING OF SOME PWS VCNTY OF THE FNT TO GTR THAN
1.50 INCHES. AND FINALLY..VRY HVY SNOWS WL OCCUR ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THIS SYS FM THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS ENEWD THRU MUCH OF MN INTO
NWRN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI..GENLY ALG/LEFT OF THE TRACK OF THE STG
H5 VORT AND LOW LVL CNTRS. AGAIN..NOT TOO MUCH TO ARGUE WITH
REGARDING THE MDL QPFS..WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATING SOME
GTR THAN 0.50 INCH WTR EQUIVALENTS NRN MN INTO EXTRM NWRN WI AND
THE WRN U.P. OF MI. PLS SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE
SNOWFALL POTNL HERE.
...GT BASIN/ROCKIES...
NEG TILT AND LIFTING OUT H5 TROF WL CONT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
GENLY LGT SNOWS OVR PTNS OF THE NRN GT BASIN AND NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES
MSTLY 1ST HALF OF THE PD..WITH WTR EQUIVALENTS GENLY BLO 0.25
INCHES EVEN IN THE MORE FAVORED HIER TERRAIN. MDL QPFS WERE IN
GENL AGREEMENT ON THIS..AND SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE.
DAY 2...
...NORTHEAST...
AN IMPRESSIVE OCCLUDED SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG CLOSED
LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN QUE WILL PRESS THROUGH THE NERN CONUS AND
OFF THE NERN/MID-ATL SEABOARD WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP SWLY
FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FOSTER AN ADDITIONAL 0.25
- 0.5 INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY/NRN NEW ENG BEFORE THE
DEEP MOISTURE ADV IS QUICKLY DIRECTED OUT TO SEA.
...SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
MDT TO HVY PRECIP ON DAY 2 IN THE VICINITY OR JUST NORTH AND ALONG
THE POLAR COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIG S THROUGH THIS
REGION TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
ENOUGH OF A SRN STREAM TROF PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO
NRN MEXICO AND SWRLY FLOW CARRYING SRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE SRN
PLAINS TO INTERACT WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF OVERRINNING GULF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME ORGANIZED HVY RAINFALL. HPC GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS ON BOTH THE AXIS AND AMT OF HVY
RAIN FROM THE TX HILL AND BIG CNTRY THRU THE ARKLATEX
REGION...WHERE AREAL AVGS OF 1-3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.
DAY 3...
...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
PREVIOUSLY NOTED POLAR FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST...AS MORE SRN STREAM DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. NAM/GFS ARE ACTUALLY IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THEIR PLACMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS ERN TX...WITH THE CMC GLOBAL DISPLACED A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE N. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HOWEVER IS
NOTICEABLE DRIER. THE NCEP MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE DEFINED WITH
THIS ENERGY AND THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOWS THE LOW LVL INFLOW
FROM THE GOMEX RESPONDING IN KIND. OTHERWISE...MODELS MASS FIELD
DIFFERENCES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO STRONGLY DISCOUNT ONE
MODEL IN FAVOR OF ANOTHER. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
PLACE TO SUGGEST ITS AMTS MAY BE UNDERDONE.
TERRY/PEREIRA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 11/12Z
0.01 508949 519923 525889 527862 526838 522814 509786 499773
480748 466730 456713 446702 426695 420691 413690 409691
405695 401703 399744 399753 399761 401767 400774 401779
401784 396793 393803 387812 381821 376830 368844 346885
328922 312952 297988 289006 286009 283012 278017 276025
277031 285037 288040 294041 301033 306026 311020 319003
327991 337980 356961 375947 392941 402947 404949 406953
409967 409983 408996 406006 405012 405018 406025 408031
409034 413038 415044 415049 414053 405053 397051 381057
378057 372055 367055 363058 360060 359063 358067 360072
368080 372088 375095 378099 385097 395094 404083 413080
416078 418076 422074 425074 427077 422085 421089 422094
421100 418105 418108 415109 412109 411105 409099 407101
405106 401110 398114 399120 402123 405125 409123 416125
420126 422131 424130 430123 434122 438122 446125 449127
450130 447135 441142 438145 436151 437157 440161 444170
446174 446179 444181 440189 439194 440197 443202 446203
447194 452193 455189 462180 460176 457175 455172 456168
457166 462166 472171 478172 483169 487163 489158 493153
499147 501143 502134 501129 498123 496118 493114 487108
477102 473098 472090 468086 464084 461078 459073 460068
463062 466059 471055 474051 477046 479041 479031 478025
478018 479008 483994 487983 491975 496967 502957 508949
0.01 467218 460214 451213 443214 436217 421225 418233 418244
420249 423251 432250 446245 449243 449238 443236 438236
434237 425234 429231 435229 444229 453227 460225 466221
467218
0.01 345007 344005 342006 338007 334011 331014 328017 326020
325025 327025 331022 334019 337016 339014 342010 345007
0.01 294062 294058 291055 285055 280054 277053 273050 269048
266048 264050 266055 269058 272060 277062 280063 285065
291064 294062
0.25 520856 519845 516834 511826 506822 501820 496819 489819
481822 478826 474832 471842 469848 466855 464863 462873
460881 456893 453902 451910 450927 450936 450948 451958
454965 462979 465981 468981 472980 475977 483966 491952
498936 509907 514893 518872 520856
0.25 463773 462762 459752 454743 450737 445730 439725 433720
425718 420719 416724 411739 408754 407764 408775 407789
406797 403805 396817 392824 386831 378841 370852 366860
362868 356881 346904 333930 327942 322952 318960 316968
313974 312979 312984 316986 319985 323981 333972 343963
353952 361943 369932 380919 385917 391915 396914 402909
409898 419884 424879 429872 432865 435859 439843 441836
444828 447818 454811 459804 462795 463788 464781 463773
0.50 511860 510852 508846 504841 500839 492839 486841 480846
477855 475867 472878 467890 465900 462914 462919 462927
464936 466941 472950 476953 482949 487943 492933 496922
500908 506886 511860
0.50 453780 451768 448759 440743 435735 430731 426730 421732
417740 417747 416754 413759 412763 412768 411790 409804
401832 398841 395846 389842 385844 384847 376857 372863
368870 355896 343920 336933 329944 324956 323963 323966
327968 340959 350947 356938 363926 371913 377900 379893
380888 380885 382879 385872 389865 392862 394863 396869
394884 390898 393904 397905 401902 410890 415882 419876
424864 429849 435832 437823 440817 449800 452788 453780
1.00 494882 494877 492876 489875 486877 484880 483882 483886
483891 486892 488893 489894 490893 492890 492887 493883
494882
1.00 439791 440785 438778 434773 432778 429781 424784 420788
414805 410823 408832 407844 407853 405864 407872 411873
414869 418863 422854 429835 431828 434816 438799 439791
1.00 352933 357922 359914 359909 357907 355909 354912 346927
341939 341944 343943 347941 352933
1.50 431804 429798 426798 419806 415816 412837 412853 413858
419851 423842 426832 427827 428819 431809 431804
24HR QP VT 12/12Z
0.01 507671 504660 499652 496647 492638 485629 480621 477618
473614 469612 460610 450613 446614 441617 435620 429624
419631 408640 397649 390657 384665 379674 376679 375684
365706 361716 359725 356735 355740 355743 352746 347749
345752 339760 339766 342767 346768 348766 351762 363767
363773 364776 369776 374773 377769 379763 383752 385747
389743 394738 393744 394750 397765 397770 396776 388785
375800 370806 363815 352831 343853 338862 335870 332876
329880 323884 320889 318896 317903 313906 308907 304910
301920 300931 298935 295938 286945 278951 273958 269969
267978 264985 261987 257989 252990 248989 242989 238990
234994 234999 236002 240004 247007 251009 254012 259018
265026 267029 271032 271038 270043 265052 261062 260066
258071 264074 267072 269069 272065 277063 285059 290058
296059 301061 303065 312082 316085 323086 329093 334092
336090 338088 337084 335078 333075 327069 324063 328059
330059 330056 329051 324042 322035 325031 339017 343014
346010 351006 354006 364008 369009 375008 378005 379001
378995 376989 373986 368983 359981 358975 360969 361956
363945 365934 368915 371901 374891 378878 381866 388846
396825 406808 412805 416804 422804 427799 433794 437794
441796 449801 456809 464819 466823 465831 456835 446841
439850 436854 434860 434865 436868 441868 448868 451869
455872 458876 458883 454887 452892 451897 453902 456908
461910 470911 476902 478900 480901 483905 485908 488918
491924 494927 498931 500932 503930 510928 512922 518908
520896 521878 522870 520859 516845 508816 502800 499790
497779 495767 495761 501747 504741 506736 512725 514712
516701 515695 512691 509682 507671
0.01 338184 338181 338177 336173 335173 333171 330169 327169
324169 323171 324174 324175 326176 329178 330179 331182
332183 334185 336186 338184
0.25 488668 477662 468650 459638 451635 445633 439633 435636
429640 422646 417651 415658 413664 409676 407683 409687
414690 415694 420712 423728 424733 427736 431736 436735
439733 445727 451725 456723 460722 463724 467729 471731
474731 476727 480699 480690 484683 487675 488668
0.25 361891 360887 356883 353882 350883 345889 338896 327908
317921 313929 310937 304952 301961 297968 292974 286980
277993 273000 272005 273010 278019 283024 289029 296031
301031 304030 311025 317021 325015 335003 340995 343987
349969 353953 356942 358932 360913 361900 361891
0.50 453663 450657 446654 434652 430654 424660 425666 424673
427681 426689 428702 428710 429714 431717 436717 442713
445709 446706 447702 446698 446691 447683 453671 453663
0.50 357914 356902 355897 353895 349896 345898 340903 332913
324925 317937 312948 306962 300972 292981 285991 281998
279004 280009 281011 285015 298020 302020 307018 311016
319012 323009 328004 333998 338987 343972 348958 352945
355928 357914
1.00 351929 351920 350916 348912 343912 339915 335920 332924
326935 316953 311964 305974 291990 286000 285004 289008
293010 299011 308009 319004 327996 332987 337977 345954
349940 351929
1.50 347927 346922 343920 339922 335926 327941 319956 311974
306981 300985 296989 295992 293997 294001 300005 309004
318999 324993 332978 340959 342952 346941 347927
2.00 343931 342929 340930 338932 334937 331944 327949 320961
315974 311980 308984 304990 302993 304998 307997 315994
321990 324985 330973 336960 341945 343931
24HR QP VT 13/12Z
0.01 472855 472850 471846 469842 467841 464841 462846 463850
464854 464858 465862 466863 469865 471860 471859 472855
0.01 452815 451811 450808 448804 445802 445801 442800 439802
438805 439809 440813 443816 444819 447821 448822 450822
452820 452817 452815
0.01 386790 386784 384778 379764 375757 371755 369755 367757
364766 363774 359791 347823 342837 339848 336856 318883
312895 308899 305899 296899 293903 292906 291916 289923
285931 266953 262960 263971 261975 258978 251980 243982
236984 233987 232991 232996 234999 239005 247009 259015
265019 272023 287027 294028 302033 308038 315042 320040
322035 318029 312024 311022 312018 323006 332994 337987
344982 350975 353971 357963 360953 361943 362933 363910
363902 365893 367884 371874 377859 381839 383831 385822
387814 388806 388799 387794 386790
0.01 405064 403042 405033 405025 403019 399012 393005 390004
385003 379007 377013 378020 378033 377036 372037 368037
364040 360047 355052 352061 350069 347072 344077 344083
346087 349090 355096 358102 359108 357111 354115 354119
354127 364141 370144 375148 375151 370157 370162 374164
386153 387144 383137 381134 384131 389127 395121 395115
393113 389110 389106 389098 393087 395082 398079 400077
402073 403068 405064
0.01 349767 348759 345752 338741 334737 331735 327736 325738
321742 318751 314760 311770 310780 309804 307814 304823
304828 304832 305835 310838 315836 319835 323833 327828
330824 340807 344797 347787 349776 349767
0.01 379196 379192 377190 374185 370182 363179 358176 356170
353165 350165 346163 342165 338166 335164 331162 328162
326163 326168 327171 331174 338174 341174 341181 343184
345181 349176 356178 358180 358184 360187 362189 367190
378196 379196
0.01 344106 345103 345099 344096 344093 343092 341090 339089
338086 335088 335089 335092 335095 335099 334102 335103
338105 338106 340107 343107 344106
0.25 372835 371830 369825 363824 361828 359833 355842 354847
352854 352859 354864 357864 360862 364857 367852 371843
372835 372835
0.25 379079 379075 378074 375074 375075 375079 375080 378080
379079
0.25 362068 362065 361064 359065 361068 362068
0.25 343921 343912 341905 337903 332905 325907 322909 314916
307924 303933 297954 295963 291973 284991 284998 287001
297003 303003 309002 313000 316996 327978 334960 339949
342938 343927 343921
0.50 337936 337927 336923 334920 329918 323919 317923 314927
309938 307949 304962 303975 305982 309985 313985 316984
319979 324970 329959 333948 337937 337936
1.00 329938 328931 324929 319932 317937 316940 315944 314951
314954 313961 313964 315966 318963 320959 322954 325950
327945 328941 329938
$$
