FXUS62 KILM 301955
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
255 PM EST THU JAN 30 2003

PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME PATCHY THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AT TIME. 
THIS LOW WILL REACH THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF CHS THIS 
EVENING AND THEN MOVE NORTH...UP THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

WEDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WENT WITH PATCHY 
RAIN AND FOG TAPERING TO DRIZZLE. 

AS LOW MOVES BY TO NORTH...A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD DRIER AIR FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON AND SO WILL GO WITH DRIZZLE/FOG SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO 
PARTLY CLOUDY. BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH TO 
MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND SO LOWER 60S LOOK 
REASONABLE...BUT WILL MAKE ALLOWANCES FOR BEACHES. 

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN OFF THE SOUTH 
ATLANTIC COAST. RETURN FLOW WILL GET READINGS NEAR 70 ON MONDAY AS 
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOUTH WIND KICKS IN IN EARNEST. BEACHES AGAIN 
WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S. 

MODELS INDICATING MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE RATHER QUICK AND SO MAY 
SEE SHOWERS OUT WELL AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY 
AND SO DRY AND SEASONABLE.

MARINE: FRONT HAS STALLED OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS BERKELEY COUNTY SC: 
SOUTH WINDS AT CHS AND EAST WINDS AT GEORGETOWN. WITHOUT A GOOD 
NORTHERLY WIND PUSH TO KEEP THE WEDGE IN OVER THE WATER...AM 
EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PUSH NORTH AGAIN AS THE WAVE ON THE FRONT 
MOVES EAST TODAY. WILL INDICATE E WINDS BECOMING SE/S ACROSS MOST OF 
THE COASTAL WATERS. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT.

MARINE: LOW PRES NEAR AGS WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND PULL THE 
WARM FRONT PARTIALLY THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS DIRECTIONS 
WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE UNTIL THE LOW CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE AND N 
WINDS 10-15 KT DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER 
THAN COLD NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS THROUGH LATE MORNING FRI. WITH LOW 
CIGS/VSBYS FORECAST ALONG THE COAST WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD MENTION OF 
SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG OVER THE WATER TONIGHT AND EARLY 
FRI.

A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SAT EVENING WITH A NW 
SURGE WHICH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. BENIGN WX NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THEN MODELS ARE 
JUMPING ON A SYSTEM TUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KT WINDS THEN.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
ILM  040/057 038/060 5111
LBT  036/055 035/058 5111
FLO  037/056 037/058 5111
MYR  041/058 038/058 5111

.ILM...
.NC...NONE.
.SC...NONE.

PUBLIC: DIGIORGI
MARINE: TRA