SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 200 PM MST MON MAR 29 1999 FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS...AND THEIR AFFECT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH FIRST PERIOD BRINGING UPPER LOW ONTO NORTHWEST COAST AND SHIFTING UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH NGM THE STRONGEST. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION/STABILITY PROFILE NOT FAVORABLE TO BRINGING THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. STILL WITH 50KT WINDS SHOWING UP AROUND 650 MB ON THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ETA CROSS SECTIONS BY 12Z...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRICK IS FINDING ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW THAT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOTION IN ITS WAKE TO MAKE THIS A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT. CLOUD FEATURES IN WV IMAGERY IN NORTHERN CA AND IDAHO SEEM WELL CORRELATED WITH RUC 250 MB JET...BUT THESE FEATURES APPEAR TO STAY NORTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS THEY TRANSLATE EASTWARD. SO FOR NOW CAN'T RESOLVE ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNWARD MOTION OTHER THAN THE TERRAIN ITSELF AND ITS RESULTING LEE TROUGH. WILL PUT SOME GENEROUS WINDS COMING IN OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES... BUT WILL KEEP BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA AND ADVISE NEXT SHIFT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT BY 6 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND GUIDANCE IS GIVING AT LEAST A 10 DEGREE WARM UP OVER LAST NIGHTS LOWS. HOWEVER IF WE DECOUPLE... TEMPERATURES COULD BE BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES. WITH NO CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE EFFICIENT...AND DEW POINTS ARE QUITE DRY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. WILL GO A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...THE COUNTIES BORDERING KS MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY. LOOKING TOWARD THE EXTENDED...BIG DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW WHICH WILL AFFECT AREA FRIDAY THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND. MRF SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND BRINGS UPPER LOW THE FURTHEST NORTH ACROSS NEW MEXICO...WHICH WOULD BRING BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE CWA. HOWEVER NOGAPS KEEPS LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. NNNN co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 1000 AM EST MON MAR 29 1999 VIS LOOP SHOWING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS INCREASING AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY THIN.. BUT WILL CHANGE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. COLD FRONT PROGGED BY 03Z ETA AND 12Z RUC TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS UP FAIRLY WELL. READINGS ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE FWC 3-HOURLY GUIDANCE AND ABOVE 11Z LAMP OUTPUT. CURRENT READINGS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA... AND MODELS INDICATE A 10-12 DEGREE RISE FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY PM HOURS. WILL RAISE TEMP FORECASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON ONE CATEGORY.. WITH 70-75 IN THE SOUTH AND AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 20 KT WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY 18Z.. AND SCA WILL BE CONTINUED FOR MARINE ZONES. .LWX...SCA FOR TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD PORTION OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. MARGRAF! NNNN md STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1010 AM PM EST MON MAR 29 1999 HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS SRN LOWER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER WI. ETA RUN FROM 03Z TAKES WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD ALSO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAOBS FROM 12Z FROM APX/DTX SHOW VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES QUITE STEEP AND CU SCHEME FROM 03Z ETA/12Z RUC SUGGEST SOME CU POTENTIAL...DOUBT THE CU WILL BE MORE THAN SCT THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE CURRENT CLOUD COVER SHIFTS EAST WILL LIKELY GET ENOUGH MIXING TO REALIZE BREEZY CONDITIONS AS FORECAST GIVEN STRONG LOWER LEVEL WIND PROFILES, THUS WILL LEAVE WIND FORECAST AS IS. HIGH TEMPS FROM MORNING PACKAGE LOOK GOOD AS WELL BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. UPDATED ZFP WIBIS ASAP. JW NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 450 AM EST MON MAR 29 1999 LATEST SFC CHART SHOWS 999MB LO MOVG TOWARD JAMES BAY AS VIGOROUS SHRTWV CONTS LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO PER SAT LOOPS. SFC WNDS THIS PAST EVNG GUSTED TO ADVY LVL OVR NW HALF OF CWA IN SHARP GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING SFC LO AND HI PRES NOW OVR NCNTRL PLAINS AS ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET AND WLY H925 50 KT LLJ AS DEPICTED ON RUC ANALS PROPAGATED ACRS FA. LO STABILITY BLO H8 PER 0Z GRB SDNG AND DECENT CAD ENHANCED MIXING OF STRG MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. HOWEVER...LATEST MSAS PRES RISE/SFC OBS AND RUC ANAL/FCSTS SHOW ISALLOBARIC MAX AND HIEST WNDS HAVE PASSED TO E AND WEAKENED. SO ALLOWED HI WND ADVY TO EXPIRE AT 07Z. 00Z H3 RAOBS SHOW 125 KT JET MAX OVR SD IN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY LO STABILITY PER 00Z BIS SDNG (TT 53...LI -2). ISOLD SHRA THAT DVLPD DURG DAY HAVE SINCE DSPTD...BUT COMPOSITE 88DS TO THE W SHOW LINGERING RETURNS WITH SCT-BKN CLD MOVG EWD IN AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIER SFC DWPT/SUBTLE WSHFT IN NW MN. SHRA LIMITED CONSIDERABLY BY LACK OF MSTR UPSTREAM WITH 00Z PW/K INDEX AT BIS A PALTRY 0.13 INCH/7. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY WL BE INFLUENCE OF APRCHG JET MAX AND AREA OF INSTABILITY NOW IN MN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVG JET MAX AND HI INSTABILITY DEFINED BY TT NR 55 EWD THRU CWA TDAY AND REACHING THE E BY THIS AFTN. AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE OF THE JET MOVES EWD...MID LVL QVECTOR DVGC PROGGED TO INCRS W TO E. FCST SDNGS SHOW A DRYING TREND/DCRSG TT WITH INCRSD SUBSIDENCE BY LATE MRNG OVR THE SW AND BY LATE IN THE AFTN OVR THE KEWEENAW AND CNTRL ZNS. BELIEVE LO OBSVD PW WL SUPPRESS PCPN FM MAINLY HI BASED CU/SC. BUT WL MAINTAIN SCT SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH SOME SPOTTY ECHOES STILL OBSVD UPSTREAM. MAX TEMPS ON SUN TO W INDICATE MOS TEMPS FOR TDAY IN THE BALL PARK...SO WL RAISE GOING HI TEMPS A TAD. MODELS ALL SHOW HI PRES BLDG TO S TNGT BUT DIFFER ON DEGREE OF MSTR RETURN IN DVLPG SWLY FLOW LATER ON. NGM DRIEST AND ETA MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MSTR BACK AND WOULD SUG SKIES BCMG MCLDY LATE ACRS SW WITH SHARP ISENTROPIC LIFT DEPICTED ON FCST I290. FEEL MODEL TREND OF NOT PENETRATING THIS CURRENT SHOT OF COLD AIR NOT AS FAR TO THE S FAVORS THE ETA...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS PER 00Z PW/H85 DWPT ANAL WOULD INDICATE DRIER NGM AND LESS CLD COVER. WL GO WITH COMPROMISE AVN SOLN AS THIS MODEL SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT BUT NOT AS MUCH INCRSD RH AS ETA. SO CLR TO PCLDY LATE OVR THE SW. WL NUDGE UP GOING/FWC TEMPS TOWARD FAN NUMBERS TO REFLECT SOMEWHAT QUICKER RETURN OF WARMTH/MSTR. MODELS SHOW SFC HI PRES SLIDING EWD ON TUE TO MID ATLANTIC. INCRSG SWLY BTWN HI AND LO EMERGING E OF ROCKIES RESULTS IN INCRSD THKNS AND MSTR ADVCTN INTO CWA WITH WARM FRONTOGEN NRLY OVHD. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW INCRSD DIFFERENTIAL DVGC OVR MAINLY WRN PORTION OF FA IN RR QUAD OF JET MAX OVR ONTARIO AND DVLPMNT OF 45-50 KT H85 LLJ INCRSG ABSOLUTE MSTR... TIME SECTIONS INDICATE RH TO REMAIN LO. PROGGED ETA SDNGS SHOW MID LVL INVRN TO CAP ANY LO LVL INSTABILITY (ETA FCST LI NR 0 OVR THE FAR W). WENT NR MOS FOR MAX TEMPS WITH COOLER READINGS OVR KEWEENAW AND ECNTRL DOWNWIND OF LK MI...LOCATIONS THAT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ON COOL SIDE OF DVLPG WARM FNT. .MQT...NONE. KC NNNN mi MINNESOTA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1030 AM CST MON MAR 29 1999 HAVE UPDATED S CENTRAL ZONES FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT TRENDS PLUS LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA. ONLY OTHER QUESTION IS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT...AND SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...BUT DRY MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY DEVELOPMENT SCATTERED...WILL LEAVE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR NOW. .MSP...NONE. SCOTT NNNN mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 936 AM MST TUE MAR 29 1999 LATEST RUC INDICATES WINDS WILL GET CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA UPPER YELLOWSTONE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT TAPER OFF BY THE EVENING. WILL BE UPDATING THAT ZONE FOR JUST BELOW CRITERIA BUT WILL WATCH THINGS CLOSELY. REMAINDER OF ZONES LOOK GOOD WITH ONLY CONCERNS ABOUT THIRD PERIOD. LOCATION OF WEAK FRONT TOMORROW MORNING WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH MAX TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. MAIN WEATHER PROBLEM WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MT. BORSUM. BIL BE 058/034 056/030 048 59002 LVM .. 053/029 050/... ... 59014 HDN .. 060/032 058/... ... 59002 MLS .. 061/029 061/030 ... 59001 4BQ .. 059/027 060/... ... 59001 BHK .. 057/023 059/... ... 59000 SHR BE 058/030 057/028 050 59002 NNNN mt FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 1025 AM CST MON MAR 29 1999 CONCERN THIS AFTN...SHOWER POSSIBILITY UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT AND HIGH TEMPS. 50H UPPER AIR AT 12Z SHOWS -35 TO -37C POCKET OVER ERN ND AND NRN MN. 12Z RUC SHOWS SOME WARMING DURING THE DAY WITH THE -35 POCKET MOVING OVER NE MN. LIKE YESTERDAY FEEL AREA WILL START SEEING SOME CU. WITH COLD POCKET....SOME ISOLD SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY IN NW MN WITH RUC SHOWS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY OF AROUND ZERO FROM BDE TO BJI EAST. WITH 12Z ETA/NGM SHOWING SOME WK PVA IN THAT AREA THIS AFTN WILL ADD ISOLD SHOWERS TO THAT PART OF NRN MN. FOR REST OF AREA...THINK MSTLY SUNNY WILL WORK IN MOST AREAS DESPITE AREAS OF AC. 85H TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH TODAY AS AREA IN MOSTLY NEUTRAL ADVECTION. MAY TONE DOWN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES NE ND AND GO MORE IN THE LINE OF 45 TO 50. O/W RUC 2M TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 50S SOUTH PART OF CWFA. UPDATE OUT AROUND 1045 AM. .FGF...NONE RIDDLE NNNN nd STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA, SC 1004 AM EST MON MAR 29 1999 DISC: 13Z ANLYSIS SHOWS WK HI PRES OFF THE SE CST AND ACRS T E CNTRL PLNS. SATELLITE SHOWING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVR MUCH OF THE STATE...EXCEPT FOR THE GRAND STRAND. AREA 88DS AND REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING PRETTY GOOD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN. BUT AIRMASS OVR THE STATE IS STILL FARILY DRY WITH TDS IN THE 30S AND 40S. MUCH OF THE RAIN IS NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. 00Z RUN OF MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AT ALL... MORNING RUC MAYBE A BIT BETTER. TOOK A QUICK LOOK AT 12Z NGM...IT DOES PICK UP ON THE MOISTURE. MODELS DID SHOW A WK S/W MOVG ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY. SO WILL LEAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE N AND THE LEAST ACRS THE S. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...ALREADY NOT THAT FAR AWAY FM AFT MAXES AND MAY STILL BE ABLE TO REACH LATER TDA. THANKS FOR INPUT ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS SEND AWAY! .CAE...NONE. LCV NNNN sc COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 300 AM CST MON MAR 29 1999 DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES THE MEANDERING MID-UPR LEVEL VORTEX PUSHING OFF THE S TX COASTLINE..NEAR PORT MANSFIELD. PREFER THE AVN GUIDANCE IN THE FCST POSNG OF THE LOW TRACK WHICH MAINTAINS A CUTOFF NATURE WITH A GRADUAL EROSION AND NEWD LIFT AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVR THE CNTRL U.S. 850MB TEMPS WL WARM IN RESPONSE AND RANGE BETWEEN 16C TO 20C BY MID-LATE WEEK RESULTING IN ABV NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 80S. SHORT-TERM RUC DATA APPEARS TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN SOLN WHICH MAINTAINS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA THROUGH MUCH OF THE CYCLE..HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD WL GENERATE A NLY GRADIENT WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LINGERING OVR THE ERN FA..AND DIMINISHING ACROSS THE WRN FA. THE AVN SOLN IS COOLER WITH THE TEMP FCST AS COMPARED TO THE MILD NGM..FEEL THAT TEMPS WL WARM AS SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AND WL FCST ABOVE THE AVN..GIVEN THE WEAK SFC FLOW AND LACK OF ANY SIG CAA. KCRP-88D VWP DATA DEPICTS A S-SWLY FLOW THROUGH THE VERTICAL WHICH WL KEEP PCPN POTENTIAL AT A MIN. IN ADDITION..WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS FCST IN THE 290-300K SURFACES AND FEEL THAT PCPN WL BE A VARIABLE HARD TO DEVELOP UNDER THIS PATTERN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN FROM W-E AS THE UPR LOW PUSHES FARTHER AWAY. SC/AC FIELD WL WARRANT MCLDY THIS MORNING. 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS DVLPG ACROSS THE CWA AS GROUND MOISTURE FROM SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNINGS RAIN EVENT BEGINS TO SATURATE THE NEAR SFC LAYER. FEEL THAT AREAS OF FOG WL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AND WL WORD SUCH IN THE UPCOMING PACKAGE. ONSHORE FLOW EVOLVES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE ACROSS THE NCNTRL PLAINS STATES. MRF MOS PAINTS A CLOUDIER PICTURE FOR THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME..HOWEVER SFC AND UPR FEATURES SUGGEST PCLDY AND WARM. THE FORECAST NUMBERS ARE NEXT... CRP BB 076/057 077/058 080 000 NGP 075/060 077/061 078 VCT EB 074/055 075/058 079 -00 LRD BB 078/059 080/061 083 000 BML.76 / JMC.84 .CRP...NONE. NNNN tx SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 807 PM CST MON MAR 29 1999 88-D SHOWING LARGE AREA OF SHRA COVERING MUCH OF FA THIS EVENING. UPPER LOW NOT IN A HURRY TO MOVE OUT OF AREA AS IR LOOP INDICATING UPPER LOW DRIFTING NE OFF SE TX COAST. RUC MODEL OFF A BIT IN THE INITIALIZATION OF UPPER LOW...HOWEVER 12HR SOLN STILL SHOWING LIFT OVER FA TONIGHT. EXPECT SHRA AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SAT...ONLY CHANGES TO FCST PKG. RAISE POPS AND LOW TEMPS OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF SE TX IN 1ST PD. NEW...WOULD LIKE TO TWEAK OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR AEX (55-60). OTHERWISE...FCST PKG LOOKS GOOD. 13 LCH 61/72/59/76 7522 LFT 62/72/59/76 7733 AEX 56/68/59/74 6522 BPT 62/72/60/76 5310 NNNN la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 845 EST MON MAR 29 1999 HIGH PRES TO THE W IS SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE AREA. STILL HAVE SOME WINDS UP AROUND 10KT ESPECIALLY ON DOWNSLOPE AREAS. LOOKING AT RUC AND 18Z ETA MODELS SHOW THIS WIND DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND AGREE. TEMPS HAVE NOT FALLEN AS FAST AS INDICATED EARLIER AND ALSO NOTICED TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD AT 85H WL HAVE TO WATCH MINS TNGT CLOSELY. SKIES ARE CLR NOW AND WL REMAIN THAT WAY THRU THE NGT. .LWX...NONE. JAB NNNN md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 PM EST MON MAR 29 1999 MAIN FCST QUESTIONS OVERNIGHT CONCERN CLOUDS AND TEMPS. 02Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED HI PRES OVER LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH WRLY FLOW DOMINATING WRN GREAT LAKES. IR LOOP INDICATED AREA OF MID CLOUDS FROM NE MN INTO WRN NW UPR MI AND WRN WI. CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SHRTWV SLIDING THROUGH NRN MN TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...PER WV LOOP. ASSOCIATED 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HIGHER 700-600 RH...PER 0Z RUC SLIDES ESE QUICKLY INTO LOWER MI AFT 06Z...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPR MI AS IN GOING FCST. 02Z TEMPS REMAINED A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS... EXPECT TEMPS TO SETTLE TOWARD FCST MINS. .MQT...NONE. JLB NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 930 PM EST MON MAR 29 1999 A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT THE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ENTIRELY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER...WITH ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER NOW MOSTLY CLEAR. UPSTREAM...SOME MID/UPPER CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AS WELL AS INTO WESTERN WI. ACTUALLY SOME HINT THAT THESE CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED/EXPANDED PAST COUPLE HOURS. THOUGH WIND PROFILERS OVER SOUTHERN WI/MN SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF AN ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX...00Z RUC RUN DOES PICK UP ON SOME WEAK 850/500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE -- APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO VERY SUBTLE SPEED MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. THE RUC FORECASTS A POCKET OF HIGHER RH AT 700 MB TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL WI LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE REACHING WESTERN LOWER BETWEEN 07-09Z. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...WITH EXTRAPOLATION BRINGING THESE CLOUDS INTO NW LOWER BETWEEN 06-07Z. WILL KEEP EASTERN UPPER PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL UPPER POISED TO MOVE EAST. FOR NORTHERN LOWER...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EARLY...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. BASED ON UPSTREAM LOWS THIS MORNING...COUPLED WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS LATE...WILL NUDGE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MOST AREAS UPWARD A TOUCH. SMITH NNNN mi MINNESOTA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 745 PM CST MON MAR 29 1999 CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH 700 MB THETA E ADVECTION MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST AND LATEST RUC CARRIES THIS INTO WI BY 03Z. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR LOOKS GOOD FOR EAST AREAS REST OF TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR 850 MB THETA E RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD SW MN TOWARD MORNING WHICH COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS. CURRENT FORECAST DOES HAVE THIS COVERED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FORECAST OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY HOLD UP TEMPS A TOUCH HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN WEST. ETA BRINGS 850 MB THETA E RIDGE INTO CENTRAL MN BY 00Z ON 40 TO 50 KNOT WINDS. ETA IS ALSO FORECASTING 55 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO SW MN BUT IT WAS WAY HIGH IN FORECAST FOR IA AND S MN THIS EVENING. NGM CLOSER BUT TOO LOW. AVN SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH LO TO MID 40S. AT ANY RATE ETA CIN IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY HIGH IN SW MN BY 00Z BUT LOWER IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN. CURRENT FORECAST OF SMALL POPS IN WEST CENTRAL OK. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOMETHING FARTHER E BASED ON THETA E RIDGE. NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH ETA DEW POINT FORECAST. .MSP...NONE RICHARDSON NNNN mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 855 PM EST MON MAR 29 1999 WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF/WIND SHIFT LINE CURRENTLY OVER CWA WITH STRONGEST PRES RISES OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK DOWN COAST OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT FRONT OFFSHORE AROUND 06Z AS SUPPORTED BY LATEST MESO MODELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS AREA CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AS THEY PUSH S AND E. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE SO MSTLY CLEAR WILL WORK AFTER 10 PM. CURRENT FCST TEMPS LOOK OK WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK CAA EXPECTED LATE. CWF: BOTH MESO-ETA AND 00Z RUC INDICATE 25 KT WINDS ALONG COAST WITH CAA TOWARD MORNING. WILL BE MARGINAL BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT SCA FORECAST. .MHX...SCA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. JBM NNNN nc FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 939 PM CST MON MAR 29 1999 SFC WINDS OVER WRN ND ESE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS OVER FA VARIABLE DUE TO PROXIMITY OF WEAK SFC TROF. LATEST RUC SHOWS DOUBLE SFC LOW MOVING INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS OF CANADA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD BRING WINDS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WHICH AGREES WITH ONGOING FORECAST. TEMP TRENDS ON TRACK AS WAA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER FA. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT ZONES ATTM. .FGF...NONE. TURNER NNNN nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 840 PM EST MON MAR 29 1999 WILL UPDATE ZONES THIS EVENING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKY MOST OF CWA TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA. SOME SMALL TEMPERATURES ADJUSTMENTS...TOO. 29/21Z RUC REDUCES 10/5H MEAN RH TO LESS THAN 40 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 30/06Z...SIMILAR TO 12Z MODEL/S MOISTURE TRENDS. MOST OF THIS MEAN RH IS BELOW 850MB. BNA 30/00Z TEMPERATURE PROFILE (SOUNDING) CORROBRATES THIS. 7H NW FLOW/CAA WILL HELP KEEP ATM COUPLED...THOUGH STILL EXPECT A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAPSE RATE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. 29/18Z MESOETA DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DO NOT SUPPORT FOG...EVEN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FLOW FROM 7H AND UP WILL SUPPRESS MOST OF THE CLOUDS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT. IN TERMS OF THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...MORE THAN ONE CAT VARIATION IN SOME MOUNTAIN ZONES. DM NNNN tn EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 330 AM PST TUE MAR 30 1999 AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH MORE EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. RUNNING A LTL BEHIND DUE TO TROUBLESHOOTING HP'S AS CERTAIN KEY MDL OUTPUT HASN'T UPDATED IN DAYS. NGM/ETA/AVN SIMILAR THRU 24 HOURS IN AMPLIFYING A PAC SYS ALG THE W CST. THE AVN/NGM ARE BOTH SLOWER THAN THE ETA IN THE 24 TO 48 HR PD IN MOVG THE SYS INLAND. THIS SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE AVN/MRF ALSO MESHES WELL WITH WITH THE EURO MDLS IN MOVG THE SYS INLAND SLOWLY...THEN CLOSING OFF AND AMPLIFYING THE SYS OVR THE INTERIOR WEST IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM RDGG OVR THE ERN PAC. IN THE NR TERM...CSTL EDDY CONTINUES WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS IN SAN AND SRN ORANGE COUNTIES SPREADING SLOWLY N. THIS WAS WELL FORECAST BY BOTH THE 00Z AND EARLIER 12Z COAMPS AND BY THE RUC. WOULD LIKE TO EVALUATE ETA FORECASTS...BUT 40-KM RESOLUTION BOUNDARY LYR DISPLAYS ARE NOT YET AVBL DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HP PROBLEMS. CURRENT MARINE LYR DEPTH OF 1500 TO 2000 FT IS SUFFICIENT FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO SPREAD INTO VLYS...BUT NOT REACH LWR CSTL SLOPES THIS MORNING. THIS MARINE LAYER DEPTH SHOULD RESULT IN LCLLY DENSE FOG IN VLYS... AS INDICATED IN THE OBSERVATION FM RAMONA...BUT NOT CSTL ZONES. WL ADD MENTION OF LCLLY DENSE FOG TO VLY ZONES FOR THIS MORNING. ACARS SOUNDINGS FM ONT BETWEEN 10Z AND 11Z SHOW A NR SURFACE BASED INVERSION. ETA 2 METER AGL 80 PERCENT RH (FM LATE ARRIVING ETA BOUNDARY LYR PROGS) JUST EDGES INTO ONT FM 12Z THRU 15Z. THIS SUGGESTS THE MARINE LYR IS JUST DEEP ENOUGH FOR STRATUS TO SPREAD INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE IN THE FORM OF DENSE FOG...BUT WITHOUT SUFFICIENT ADDITIONAL DEEPENING FOR THE DENSE FOG TO LIFT BEFORE BURNING OFF. ACCORDINGLY...WL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV THIS MORNING THRU 9 AM FOR ZONES 48/49. MAPS (VERSION OF RUC RUN THRU 36 HOURS) AND 00Z COAMPS BOTH SHOW ONSHR FLOW TONIGHT...BUT NO EDDY. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF EDDY MAY BE IMMATERIAL TO THE CLOUD FORECAST W OF THE MTNS TONIGHT/WED MORNING AS STRENGTH OF ONSHR FLOW AND LWRG OF HEIGHTS ALF SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EXTENSIVE MARINE LYR WITH ENOUGH DEEPENING FOR STRATUS TO REACH LWR CSTL SLOPES BY WED MORNING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING. SAN 011 .SAN...DENSE FOG ADV (SEE LAXNPWSAN). MARTIN NNNN ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 255 AM CST TUE MAR 30 1999 08Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. PER IR LOOP THE NORTH EDGE OF A CI SHIELD INTO THE SRN PART OF THE FA...OTHW CLEAR. MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THRU 48 HOURS IS CHC OF SHRA. WILL FOLLOW THE ETA. ITS 6 HOUR DEPICTION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 305K SFC JIVES WELL WITH 3 HOUR RUC VALID FOR 06Z...AND LINES UP WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRA OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. IN THE LONG TERM...THE SLOWER NGM/AVN MAY BE BEST FOR THE DEEPENING TROF OVER THE WRN U.S. AS FOR TODAY...ONLY SOME CI TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DESPITE WK MIXING AND CONTINUED EFFECT OF SFC RIDGE...EXPECT TEMPS TO ACCELERATE TO MAX VALUES IN LINE WITH FAN/FWC. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. FOR TONIGHT...EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT QUIET. THE 700MB LOW AND ASSOC LOW-MID TROP MSTR WILL LIFT NORTH. FOLLOWING THE I305K PRESSURE DEFICIT VALUES OF 50MB AND BELOW IN REGION OF ASCENT...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO SRN SECTIONS BY MORNING AS INDICATED IN GOING FCST. ETA SHOWS BEST OVERALL MEAN RH TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE ERN 1/2 OF THE FA...THUS WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS HERE...LOWER OVER SE MO/SW IL FOR WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IS WEAK (TRIVIAL MID UPR-LVL WIND FLOW) AND WITH FCST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY 5-6 DEG...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER. WILL ALSO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWER THREAT. BEST QPF SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST IN REGION OF BETTER FORCING AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE INFLUX. WILL END RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT EAST SECTIONS...AND DROP MENTION OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY PER LATEST AVN. LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM...AND LARGE SCALE DRYING. .PAH...NONE. NOLES NNNN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1010 AM EST TUE MAR 30 1999 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE 12Z RUC DEPICTS THESE FEATURES WELL...PROGGING THE WARM FRONT TO CROSS THE CWFA THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF VORT MAX'S ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...ONE WELL TO THE NORTH OF IT WHICH WILL GRAZE THE WESTERN MOST ZONES WITH A FEW CLOUDS BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THE OTHER WITH THE FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR AND SFC OBS ONLY INDICATING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF MOS AND WILL THUS BUMP AFTN MAX'S UP A LITTLE. WINDS STILL RATHER LIGHT...BEST GRADIENT TO ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. .MQT...NONE. LULOFS NNNN mi MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 953 AM PST MON MAR 29 1999 SYNOPSIS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING HAS TIGHTENED SURFACE GRADIENT ABOVE PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS...WITH AN 18 MB GRADIENT FROM JUST WEST OF VISALIA TO JUST EAST OF DESERT ROCK. SURFACE WINDS IN GENERAL HAVE PICKED UP THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA DESERTS TO 25-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. BUT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR VERIFIES FOEHN GAPPING NOW OCCURRING TO LEE SIDE OF SPRING MOUNTAINS WITH RECENT GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S BOTH AT RED ROCK CANYON AND KYLE CANYON...AND ALONG EAST SLOPE OF SOUTHERN SIERRA. THE NEW MESO-ETA IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RUC RUN THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS SUSBSIDENCE SHOULD WEAKEN AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAXE JUST A BIT. BUT THE MESO ETA BEYOND 21Z INDICATES EVEN MORE TIGHTENING ALONG WITH TENDENCE FOR STABLE LAYER SLOPING DOWNWARD EVEN STRONGER TO LEE SIDE OF SPRING MOUNTAINS. SO...WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND RAN IT THROUGH 10 PM PST THIS EVENING WITH CAVEAT THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A SHORT TIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT...WE AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THE CURRENT EXPECTED INLAND TRAJECTORY WILL BE VERY DRY. NOT TOO THRILLED AT THIS TIME ABOUT SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCES ANYWHERE...UNTIL THURSDAY AT THE LEAST WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD VERY WELL CREATE LOW-END SCATTERED TYPE COVERAGE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NO LONG TERM FORECAST CHANGES. MCQUEEN .LAS...WIND ADVISORY ISSUED UNTIL 10 PM PST FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SEE LATEST RNONPWLAS FOR DETAILS. NNNN nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE ADDED SCA CHS HRBR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1005 AM EST TUE MAR 30 1999 CAE/ATL...CRNT TRENDS FM PREV FCST PKG LOOK GD. SOME HI CLDS SPILLING INTO SE GA...BUT DO NOT XPCT CLDS TO THICKEN UP THERE UNTIL AFTER DARK. ONLY CHNG I WOULD SUGGEST WOULD BE TO GO WTH EITHER P/C OR MSTLY SUNNY FOR GA ZNS. DISC...13Z SFC MAP SHOWS HI PRES RDG WORKING DOWN SE U.S. CST WTH SMALL CNTR OVR WRN SXN OF VA. STLT SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF HI CLDS INTO ERN GA...BUT RATHER THIN SO P/C OR MSTLY SUNNY SHD DO IT FOR THIS AFTN. FEEL THAT MORE HI CLDS WL WORK ACRS CWA BUT ENUF SUN SHD FILTER THRU UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY MNLY ACRS SE GA. CWF...PG SEEMS TO BE INCRG AS FCST ACRS SC WATERS. WNDS AT FOLLY BEACH UP TO 17 KTS AND 18 KTS AT THE 40 MILE BUOY. CRNT FCST TRENDS IN CWF LOOK GD. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS XPCTD. UPDATED...DOWNTOWN CHS WNDS UP DRAMATICALLY...NE 25 KT SUSTAINED. LOOKING AT NEW 12Z RUC DATA...APPEARS THAT PG WL RMN ACRS RGN THRU THIS AFTN THEN AS HI BLDS OFF NC CST...WL SEE DECREASED WND TNGT. WL ADD SCA FOR CHS HRBR ONLY AND MNTN SCEC FOR CSTL WATERS. NOTE...AWIPS INSTALLATION SEEMS TO BE GOING SMOOTHLY. ALREADY USING THE SYSTEM...NICE TO SEE IT AGAIN AFTER 6 MOS AWAY FROM THE KBOX. .CHS... SC...SCA FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR ONLY. GA...NONE. EVT NNNN sc SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 955 AM CST TUE MAR 30 1999 UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST STILL PRODUCING WRAP-AROUND CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY. THE LATEST RUC STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDRY LAYER...WHILE THE 12Z DRT SOUNDING DEPICTS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AT 6K FT. THIS FEATURE WILL INHIBIT THE CLOUD DECK FROM BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE PREDOMINATE SKY CONDITION WILL BE CLOUDY EAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST. WILL TRIM TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... AUS 067/056 078/063 080 1--1 SAT 070/056 079/063 082 1--1 DRT 072/054 080/063 085 ---- .SAT...NONE. 13 NNNN tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 925 AM CST TUE MAR 30 1999 HEAVY OVERCAST CONTINUES TO FLOURISH UNDERNEATH STRONG INVERSION ON 12Z MAF RAOB. BASED ON RUC AND ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT ABI AND SJT ... INVERSION TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH TONIGHT. LACK OF MIXING IN BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STIMY CLEARING TRENDS. SO... PERSISTANCE IN ORDER WITH PERHAPS A 4 TO 8 DEGREE DIURNAL RISE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. INHERITED ZONE PACKAGE COVERS SITUATION. AS WESTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY... LOOK FOR SUNSHINE TO RETURN ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. 17 NNNN tx