SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 203 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2003 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) UPPER HIGH CENTER CURRENTLY OVER KS/NE WITH SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM 12Z RAOBS ARE RUNNING FROM AROUND 100 TO 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS UT/WRN CO. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM WV PICS...WHICH MAY IMPACT WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY DUE IN LARGE PART TO SFC HEATING. ACROSS SE PLAINS...300-200MB POT VORT LOBE ROTATING WESTWARD UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH ERN CO THROUGH THE EVENING. AM CURIOUS IF THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE TSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS ATTM. WILL MAINTAIN POPS WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED OUT WEST...TAPERING TO ISOLATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. HAVE EXPANDED 10 POPS EASTWARD A BIT AS MESO-ETA AND RUC 40 SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LITTLE TO NO CAP. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS. WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LVL SUPPORT EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO DIE OFF BY 06Z. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN...WITH LOW LVL JET OUT EAST...AND CLOUD COVER OUT WEST. HAVE WARMED UP GRIDS SOME. ON SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER HIGH STILL CENTERED TO THE EAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY STRONG SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...THOUGH ITS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST A SUBTLE FEATURE WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE H20 WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAYS...AND EVEN TEMPS DON'T LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM TODAYS. HAVE WARMED UP GRIDS OUT EAST...COOLED THEM OFF A BIT OUT WEST (UNDER MORE CLOUD COVER)...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE WESTERN MOST AREAS. FAR EASTERN PLAINS LOOK CAPPED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND HAVE TRIMMED SOME POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. -KT LONG TERM DISCUSSION...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY). SAT NIGHT AND SUN THE W/ THE UPR RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E OF CO...A SHRTWV IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE...TO MOVE OVR WRN CO AND THEN ACRS NRN CO. THIS SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SHWRS/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS. THE UPR FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...SO MAY NOT SEE TOO MANY DRIFT OFF OVR THE ERN PLAINS...SO WL JUST KEEP SOME POPS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AS THAT SHRTWV PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS STATES MON...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE ERN CO PLAINS. THE ETA SHOWS A WK AFTN FRONTAL PUSH W/ LITTLE INCREASE IN LOW LVL MSTR. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A WND SHIFT IN THE AFTN AND IT SHOWS A GOOD INCREASE IN LOW LVL MSTR. THE GFS THEN SHOWS A STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE IN THE EVE HRS ALONG W/ A GOOD INCREASE IN MSTR THROUGH THE MID AND LOW LVLS...AND A SHRTWV TROUGH MOVING ACRS THE AREA. WL GO W/ SCT POPS ALL AREAS AND WL KEEP AT LEAST 20 POPS GOING THRU THE NIGHT. GFS SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP OVR THE SE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS BETWEEN MON EVE AND TUE EVE. TUE IT WL STILL BE UNSETTLED AS THERE WL STILL BE SOME NE UPSLOPE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND SRN BORDER AREA AND THE SHRTWV WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA...WHICH WL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHC FOR PRECIP. TEMPS WL BE COOLER. ON WED AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE GRT BASIN W/ MOST OF THE MSTR IN CO BEING OVR WRN CO...SO WL KEEP POPS OVR THE MTNS AND GO W/ DRY WX OVR THE ERN AREAS. FOR THU AND FRI THE RIDGE AND THE MSTR SHIFT A BIT EWRD. WL GO W/POPS OVR THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND LEAVE THE FAR E PLAINS DRY. .PUB...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 815 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003 ...SHORT TERM... ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT VERY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS VERY JUICED AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2" HAS EXPENDED ITS ENERGY EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY AREAS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER ARE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SPOTTY CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG MAIN OUTFLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...SHOULD BE ABLE TO GO POP FREE FOR MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCALES ENDING THE LIGHT RAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS WITH RUC DEPICTION OF CAROLINAS SHORT WAVE DIVING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BEFORE SUNRISE. MESO-ETA MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND SETTLES IT OVER THE PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA. WATER VAPOR INDICATES A DECENT SOUTHWARD PUSH AND FEEL IT SHOULD GET VERY CLOSE TO THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. LACK OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT DRY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING BEFORE ENTERING OUR COUNTIES. ...MARINE... AS WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT FLOW...BUT MORE IN LINE WITH THE THE ETA/MESO-ETA THAN THE GFS. THIS WOULD DICTATE WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 10 KNOT RANGE OCCASIONALLY GUSTING HIGHER. CURRENT PACKAGE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND KEEP AS IS. .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. $$ DEESE/SHASHY/KEEGAN fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 640 PM EST FRI AUG 22 2003 AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z... LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TERMINAL FORECASTS. SOME CONCERN WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT FOG AT KFWA NEAR DAYBREAK. CURRENT DEWPOINT IN MID 60S AT KFWA AND LATEST RUC CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING NEAR 85 PERCENT NEAR SURFACE RH...THOUGH STILL WOULD THINK THAT DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVECT IN TONIGHT WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS IN SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FOR NOW WILL NOT ADD MENTION OF MVFR FOG AND SEE HOW LOWER DEWPOINTS PROGRESS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR 06Z ISSUANCE. LITTLE CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH PWAT BLO 1 INCH AND PER CU RULES. PBM PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS... PUBLIC FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 330 PM ISSUANCE... TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... QUIET WX THESE PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS AREA BUT DRYING ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE SHOULD LEAD ONLY TO SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS AT BEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RADIATE NICELY...ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. AGREE WITH IND DISCUSSION THAT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP MINS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MINS IN THE NORTH TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW GUIDANCE...WHILE KEEPING LOWS UP A BIT IN THE SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN LOWER 80S BASED ON EXPECTED MIXING FROM 850MB AND GUIDANCE TEMPS SUPPORT THIS. LASHLEY FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY AND WILL STALL OUT THERE ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR CWA AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING GFS HAS A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA. THE ECMWF IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS BUT THE GEM IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT, NOT MOVING IT THROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. PUT IN A CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEX MOS HAD 30-50 POP ACROSS OUR CWA BUT JUST GOING WITH A 30 POP FOR THE TIME BEING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND 19-20. BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY TO MATCH UP WITH CLEVELAND AS THESE COUNTIES SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE/HEATING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE DIDN'T CHANGE TEMPS THAT MUCH. NO BIG WARM UPS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY ON SUNDAY. BML .IWX... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. $$ in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 205 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2003 FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT...500 MB ANTICYCLONE JUST ABOUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GFS INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE ETA THIS MORNING. SURFACE FEATURES HOWEVER ARE MORE COMPLEX...WITH FRONT MEANDERING ABOUT THE AREA AND OTHER BOUNDARIES POSSIBLY LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION LAST EVENING...ANY OF WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS NEW CONVECTION TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS (RUC AND MESOETA) OFFERING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...WITH RUC DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG A GOVE-GOODLAND-WRAY LINE WHILE THE MESOETA WOULD FAVOR EASTERN ZONES. FINE LINES ON KGLD 88D SUGGEST RUC MAY BE PICKING UP ON OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. WILL MONITOR LAST MINUTE SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS FOR FINAL DECISION ON PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING. SATURDAY...FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WILL NO LONGER BE A FACTOR...LEAVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND LEE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AS PRIMARY FEATURES. ETA/GFS/NGM MOS AND RUC II INDICATING AT LEAST BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN ZONES. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 700/850 TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WEST TO LOWER 100S EAST. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME WEST WHERE 700 MB THETA E RIDGE/850 MB CONVERGENCE/HIGHER TERRAIN COINCIDE...BUT APPEARS TOO SLIGHT TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME...AS WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVEMENT/LITTLE EASTWARD PROPAGATION. SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN 700/850 TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY THE MODELS. UPPER ANTICYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER KMCI WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOME MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE FRONT RANGE/ADJACENT PLAINS...AND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NORTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED STORM TO MAKE IT INTO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. MONDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE STILL FORECAST BY ETA/GFS TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY NIGHT...BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE IN NEBRASKA. THUS...WILL ADJUST POPS/QPF TO REFLECT A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FIRST FORECAST PROBLEM REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE SOME TUESDAY MORNING POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE GFS SHOWS JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT 12Z. GFS HAS ALSO HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. AT LEAST THROUGH 84 HOURS ETA 500 MB HEIGHTS SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH SHARP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL TRIM BACK HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ABOUT A CATEGORY...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...FLATTENING SOMEWHAT BY FRIDAY. 700 MB THETA E RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST EACH DAY REACHING THE KANSAS BORDER BY FRIDAY. WILL INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN COLORADO EACH DAY DURING THIS TIME...AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY...BASED ON A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 700/850 MB TEMPERATURES AND HEIGHTS SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. .GLD...NONE. $$ JDK ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 950 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003 EARLIER FOG HAS DISSIPATED ALL AREAS. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX CONTINUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL IN SOUTHEASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA WHERE SUN WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME TO HEAT SFC AND CREATE INSTABILITY. CAPES QUITE HIGH ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NOT THAT STRONG. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FCST...BUT WILL UPDATE WORDING TO REMOVE MORNING WX. JENSENIUS ----------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION -------------------------- DISC...STG TSTMS WL CROSS FA TDA...W/ BEST CHC FOR ISOLD SVR STMS TO BE OVR SERN HALF OF OUR FA WHERE BEST HEATING WL OCCUR BY MIDDAY. TEMPS MAY APCH RECORD HIGH OF 91 AT PWM TDA IF OFFSHORE WND COMPONENT STG ENUF & DEBRIS CLDS FM CONVECTION HOLD OFF TIL MIDDAY. BUFKIT MDL SNDGS INDICATE ATMOS WL BCM VRY UNSTABLE ACRS PTNS OF OUR FA TDA W/ CAPES CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG SERN ZNS W/ LIS NEAR -4. FRZG LVLS FALL GRADUALLY W/ TIME EARLY THS AFTN...ALLOWING FOR VRY STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. SIGNIF SPEED SHEAR CONFINED TO THE LWR LVLS AS BEST MID/UPR LVL JET DYNAMICS RMN N OF OUR FA. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL AS 2NDARY FNT WL SLOWLY FORM WELL W OF INIT FNT...CREATING A BROAD SHEAR ZN. AGREE W/ SPC THAT CONVECTION WL BCM MOR ISOLD/SCT W/ TIME TDA AS BEST DYNAMICS RMN FURTHER N. ALSO AGREE W/ CONCERN TO MONITOR FOR ROTATING TSTMS AS ISOLD SUPERCELLS ARE PSBL. SVRL OF THE AFFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS RESEMBLE ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILES IN A RECENT STUDY OF NRN NEW ENG SVR STORMS. WL ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR WND ACRS SVRL ZNS. BFR WE GET AHD OF OURSELVES HWVR...WE NEED HEATING - - A LOT OF IT. FNT RUNNING A COUPLE HRS AHD OF SCHEDULE. HWVR...WSW FLO ALREADY LIFTING SOME OF THE BR OUT OF OUR FA. TDS STEADY OR SLOWLY ON THE RISE. BND OF CS AS PER MST RECENT STLT IMAGES BFR THE ECLIPSE INDICATE CLD SHIELD RMNS CLOSE TO THE CONVECTION. XPCT SIGNIF HEATING SERN ZNS TDA W/ MAX TEMPS APCHG 90F ACRS SWRN ME/SERN NH. THS PREDICTION FITS IN WELL W/ 00Z TAQ RUC RUN. TEMPS WL APCH RECORD HIGH OF 91F IN PWM SET BACK IN 1955. POPS WL RMN AT HIGH CHC...XCPT FOR LOW LKLY IN THE MTNS. ETA OUT TO LUNCH CONCERNING FCST QPF FIELD THS MRNG. HWO PRODUCT TO HIGHLIGHT CHC OF SVR TSTMS. WL SET FCST FRZG LVLS ON KGYX. TNGT...TSTMS EXIT THE CSTLN...ALG W/ PATCHY BR. PERHAPS NOT MUCH OF A BRZ & BIG COOL DOWN. 2NDARY FNT FORMING NW OF OUR FA...HOLDING BACK REAL COOL DOWN. WNDS ALFT NOT ALIGNED YET EITHER TO PRODUCE MUCH OF A BRZ. SAT...2NDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ARVS MIDDAY. MDLS SEEM TO BE VASTLY UNDERDOING POPS/CLD CVR ACRS NRN HALF OF FA. XPCT SCT SHRA IN THS RCH W/ ISOLD TSTMS. W/ RDPLY LWRG FRZG LVLS & STG UPR TROF...XPCT ISOLD SML HAIL RPTS FM THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS. FURTHER S...DOWNSLOPING MAY HELP SITN ALG THE CST. BREEZY CONDS DVLP LT SAT THRU SUN AS WNDS BCM ALIGNED...UPR TROF PASSES THE RGN...& CAA CONTS. FROST SAT NGT? PSBL AT HIE/BML. MORE LATER. THU...ADDED CHC -SHRA/TSRA W/ STG WMFNT APCHG & CROSSING FA LT IN THE DAY. STG WND FIELD W/ THS SYS. ------------------------------------------------------------------ MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. .GYX... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. $$ JENSENIUS me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 840 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003 A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME HIGH CLDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE 310K SFC...BUT THESE ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME MOVING E DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. DWPTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 40S IN SOME INLAND AREAS...AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MAIN UPDATE CONCERNS DEAL WITH TEMPS AND POSSIBLE HIGH CLDS OVER THE WEST. 21Z RUC AND 18Z ETA SHOW THAT THE WAA CLDS AND SHOWERS OVER MN WILL NOT MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT AS THE DRY AIR WINS OUT INITIALLY. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS TMRW WHEN SEEING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NRN MN...BUT THE EXTREME DRY AIR OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES (PWAT AT GRB 0.71 INCH) SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO MN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS TMRW AFTN WHEN THE BEST 315K ISENTROPIC LIFT ENTERS THE WESTERN UP. MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE W UP TMRW AFTN IS SIMILAR TO PROFILE OVER NRN MN AND NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...BUT WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS ARE NEEDED FOR THE FAR W LATE SAT AFTN. IN FACT...GUIDANCE POPS FROM THE GFS MOS(42 PCT) AND MET(24 PCT) AT IWD WOULD SUPPORT SOME MENTION OF SHOWERS TMRW AFTN. HOWEVER...WILL LET MID SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z MDL RUNS TO MAKE THAT DECISION. AS FOR TEMPS...LATEST DWPTS IN THE MID 40S-AROUND 50 WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS COULD DROP AS LOW AS 46 IN SOME INLAND AREAS. CURRENT FCST SHOWS WARMER TEMPS OVER THE FAR WEST...HOWEVER AM CONCERNED THAT CLDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP SLIGHTLY MORE THAN PROGGED. WILL OPT TO LOWER TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE WEST...HOWEVER TEMPS ELSEWHERE LOOK QUITE GOOD WHEN LOOKING AT CURRENT DWPT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...WITH DRY SFC AIR IN PLACE...AM NOT TOO SURE IF THERE WILL BE ANY FOG...BUT WILL KEEP IT IN WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY. ZFP UPDATE OUT BY 930 PM. .MQT...NONE. MRD mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 320 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANLSYS SHOW DEEPENING TROFS OVR ERN CAN AND OFF THE W COAST...WITH A BLDG RDG OVR THE WRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CAN IN BTWN. CWA IN DRY NW FLOW ALF BTWN THE RDG TO THE W AND THE TROF TO THE E. GUSTY NW SFC WND BTWN HI PRES OVR MN AND LO PRES OVR SE HUDSON BAY...BUT WINDS ARE NOT AS STRG AS YDAY. 12Z INL SDNG QUITE DRY AND STABLE ABV SUBSIDENCE INVRN AT H8 ABV WELL MIXED PBL...WITH PWAT 0.70 INCH AND KINX 2. YPL SDNG SHOWS HIER LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO LWR SUBSIDENCE INVRN AT H85...BUT SDNG EQUALLY DRY AND STABLE ABV WITH PWAT 0.62 INCH AND KINX 2. QUITE A BIT MORE CU HAS DVLPD OVR ONTARIO IN MOISTER LLVLS DEPICTED ON YPL SDNG AND UNDER MORE IMPRESSIVE CAD IN SHARPER CYC FLOW THAN OVR NE MN/CWA...WITH DRIER INL SNDG MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF AIRMASS OVHD. A PAIR OF SHRTWVS OVR THE FAR W CONUS NOTED RIDING NE ON THE W SIDE OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS. THE ONE SHRTWV CRASHING ASHORE IN CA THIS MRNG IS THE MOST VIGOROUS OF THE TWO...AND MODELS INDICATE THESE SHRTWVS MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR FCST LATER THIS WEEKEND. HI CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THESE SHRTWVS ARE ALREADY SPILLING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. 12Z BIS SDNG SHOWS HI RH ABV H55...WITH MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR BLO. THE HI CLD HAS DRIFTED AS FAR E AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE TEMPS THRU SAT...THEN PCPN CHCS AND TIMING SAT NGT INTO EARLY NXT WEEK AS SHRTWVS TO THE W BATTER DOWN RDG OVR CNTRL NAMERICA. TRANQUIL WX ON TAP TNGT...WITH SFC HI PRES RDG PROGGED TO REACH CNTRL CWA BY 12Z SAT. WITH RISING HGTS ALF...XPCT HIER LLVL RH IN ONTARIO TO PASS MAINLY NE OF CWA. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW HI CLD OVR THE NRN PLAINS SPRDG E QUICKLY OVRNGT INTO THE WRN ZNS AFTR MIDNGT WITH INCRSG ISENTROPIC LIFT/MSTR ADVCTN DEPICTED ON 320K SFC (H5-55) AS LEAD SHRTWV IN THE NRN ROCKIES INDUCES PRES FALLS IN THE PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW WAD ON THE BACK SIDE OF SFC HI. LIFT INCRSG BECAUSE ERN TROF STILL DEEPENING...WITH COLD AIR NOT RETREATING FASTER THAN RETURN FLOW DVLPG ALF. THE INCRS IN HI CLD WL PREVENT TEMPS FM FALLING AS FAR AS MIGHT OTRW BE THE CASE WITH HI PRES CRESTING OVHD...AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PTCHY FOG IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS SHOWN ON 12Z INL SDNG. ALTHOUGH THE ERN ZNS WL REMAIN MCLR...SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/HIER H925 NLY FLOW AS PROGGED BY ETA OFF THE NOW RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LK SUP SHUD PREVENT DECOUPLING AT MOST PLACES. HAVE OPTED TO FCST PTCHY FOG OVR THE CNTRL/SE ZNS AWAY FM THE WRMG INFLUENCE OF THE LKS AND WHERE SOME PLACES HAVE A CHC TO DECOUPLE BEFORE PTCHY HI CLD DRIFTS OVHD LATE. XPCT INCRSG AND THICKENING HI CLD ON SAT W-E AS LIFT/MOISTENING DEPICTED ON 310K SFC (ARND H7). HOWEVER...ETA FCST SDNGS DEPICT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HI PRES LINGERING IN THE LLVLS...WHICH SHUD REMAIN DRY ENUF TO PREVENT ANY PCPN. GFS GENERATES PCPN OVR THE WRN ZNS...BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS PROG BASED ON CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INDUCED SHRTWV. PREFER DRIER ETA/NGM SOLN GIVEN DRYNESS/STABILITY OF ANTECEDENT AIRMASS. ETA FCST SDNGS INDICATE MAX TEMPS WL REACH ARND 80 WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO INVRN BASE AT H8...BUT WL LWR FCST HI TEMPS SVRL DEGREES FM THESE VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR DCRSD INSOLATION UNDER THE HI CLD. THESE CLDS WL BE THINNER OVR THE E AND HAVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS OVR THE INTERIOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE 80 DEPICTED AS PSBL WITH FULL SUNSHINE/MIXING TO H8 FOR ERY ON ETA FCST SDNGS. HOWEVER...WITH A LGT N/WEAK GRADIENT FLOW TO FAVOR LK BREEZE FORMATION...ALLOWED FOR LWR TEMPS NR LKSHORES. AS HI PRES RDG DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SE SAT NGT...MODELS SHOW DEEPENING WAD/ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC. ETA INDICATES H85 SW WNDS JUST TO THE SW INCRSG TO 40+KT...BUT GFS IS MUCH WEAKER. ETA/GFS GENERATE QPF OVR THE W HALF OF CWA. ALTHOUGH LLVL DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE WL HAMPER CHCS FOR PCPN...WL FCST CHC POPS W OF MQT-MNM GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF WAD AND SHARP H85-7 FRONTOGENESIS DEPICTED IN NOSE OF ETA FCST LLJ. ANTECEDENT STABILITY WL PREVENT TOO MUCH DESTABILIZATION...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF TSRA OVR THE WRN ZNS GIVEN GFS/ETA FCST SI ARND 0/KINX TO 35 IN THOSE LOCATIONS. DESPITE XPCTD OVC AND SW FLOW...DRY LLVLS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME EVAP COOLING WITH PCPN OVR THE W HALF MAKE FOR A TRICKY MIN TEMPS FCST. WL COMPROMISE BTWN LWR NGM/AVN MOS GUIDANCE AND HIER ETA MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS. STRGR SHRTWV COMING ASHORE IN CA PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK ACRS TOP OF RDG IN CAN ON SUN...WITH A SFC TROF MOVG ACRS THE CWA. ETA REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WL TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS/UKMET/CNDN TIMING FOR TROF PASSAGE AND UPR LVL DRYING GIVEN DEEPENING UPSTREAM/DOWNSTREAM TROFS. DESPITE HIGH THICKNESS AOA 570DM FCST...GFS SUGS ABUNDANT CLD COVER WL HOLD DOWN MAX TEMPS AND ANY SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...WL INCLUDE MENTION OF ELEVATED TSRA OVR WRN 2/3 OF CWA...WHERE GFS SHOWS SSI FALLING BLO 0 AND H85 DWPT REACHING 15C BEFORE UPR LVL DRYING ARRIVES TOWARD EVNG. GIVEN GREATER EXTENT OF CLD COVER...WL FOLLOW LWR NGM/AVN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX. BOTH GFS/ETA NOW SHOW HI PRES RDG BLDG INTO UPR GRT LKS SUN NGT/MON IN WAKE OF SHRTWV PASSAGE. SO HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE POPS DURG THESE PDS WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING ALF...GFS SHOWS KINX FALLING BLO 0 OVR MOST OF CWA BY 12Z MON. APPEARS DRYING WL BE MAINLY IN THE UPR LVLS...SO HAVE ADDED PTCHY FOG OVR THE WRN ZNS LATE AT NGT WITH CLRG AND LGT WNDS CLOSER TO THE SFC HI CENTER. INCOMING AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY COOL WITH H100-5 THKNS REMAINING ARND 570DM... SO GFS FCST MINS ARND 60 LOOK RSNBL...AS LO AS 55 OVR THE INTERIOR WCNTRL. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON MON AND H85 TEMPS RISING AOA 15C...LOOK FOR MAX TO REACH THE 80S OVR INTERIOR AREAS AWAY FM LK BREEZES THAT WL FORM WITH RATHER FLAT GRADIENT OVHD. EXTENDED MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE FALLING HGTS OVR THE UPR GRT LKS EARLY NXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS BATTERS DOWN THE UPR RDG THAT BLDS OVR THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE RSNBL AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ON A SGNFT COLD FROPA MON NGT/TUE MRNG. WL MAINTAIN GOING CHC SHRA/TSRA MON NGT/TUE FOR THIS FROPA FOLLOWED BY COOLER/DRIER WX FOR LATE TUE/WED. WL CONT CHC POPS ON THU WITH REINFORCING SHRTWV DROPPING S TO FURTHER AMPLIFY THE ERN TROF...THEN DRIER BUT EVEN COOLER FOR NXT FRI. IN GENERAL...BLO AVG TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH UPR HGTS FALLING BLO NORMAL. COORDINATED WITH APX. .MQT...NONE. KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003 .DISCUSSION... 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI. NOT NEARLY AS BIG A PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AS YESTERDAY AS ALL ITS UPPER SUPPORT HAS OUTRUN IT. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THE 500MB RIDGE IS ALREADY STARTING TO RECOVER FROM YESTERDAY'S SHORT WAVE...AND RUC DATA SUPPORTS THIS. HIGH REZ VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BOUNDARY MOVING STEADILY SOUTH THROUGH THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AS A CLEARING OF THE MILKY HAZE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS LOOKS TO BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRYER AIR FROM THE NORTH...AND THERE'S EVEN SOME COLD ADVECTION CU FORMING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SURFACE WIND FIELDS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST STATIONS COMING IN UNDER 10KTS. MY FIRST IMPRESSION IS THAT THE FRONT IS DONE...OR NEARLY DONE MOVING SOUTH. THE ETA SEEMS TO AGREE WITH ME WHERE THE GFS CONTINUES SHOVING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WOULD EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHWARD TRAVEL TONIGHT...BUT I DON'T SEE IT GETTING MUCH PAST THE MO/AR BORDER. BOTH THE ETA AND THE GFS DO KEEP US IN EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FOR SATURDAY...WHICH ISN'T EXACTLY A WARMUP WIND. THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES NORTH OF MISSOURI INTO IOWA WHERE IT SHOULD BE PRETTY TOASTY ON SUNDAY...WIND BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY JUMP BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THE THERMAL RIDGE DROPS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 850MB THERMAL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACCORDING TO BOTH MODELS SHOULD HELP TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHERN AREAS. NO PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY AS THE 5940M 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN AND SITS ON US. EXTENDED... WEAK TROF WHICH YESTERDAY'S GFS WAS ADVERTISING FOR TUESDAY HAS MORPHED INTO A REAL COLD FRONT. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE PRECURSOR TO OUR PATTERN SHIFT FROM TYPICAL HUGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AN WESTERN CONUS TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN...WHICH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW. THE ETA IS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PARENT LOW WAY UP IN CANADA. THE GFS THOUGH DEVELOPS A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW/TROF WELL INTO THE DAKOTAS. REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION KICKING UP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS BY 18Z MONDAY. THIS SHOULD GET THE FRONTOGENESIS GOING AND PUSH OUR COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST. WILL LATCH ON TO THE GFS AND GO WITH IT AS A GOOD STARTING POINT...AND KEEP OUR CHANCE FOR THUNDER GOING TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS AT LEAST QUIETER THAN TUESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SINCE THE FRONT MAY STILL BE IN THAT VICINITY. WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING DOWN THERE FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TO MAKE SURE IT DOESN'T SLOW THE FRONT DOWN. GFS IS STILL TAKING US INTO ZONAL FLOW FOR THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST. MOS LOWERS TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AS MOS HAS BEEN TOO COOL AS OF LATE WENT ABOUT A CAT HIGHER. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE .IL...NONE $$ CARNEY mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003 STORY OF THE DAY IS WHERE WILL BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BE. 12Z MANUAL ANALYSIS PLACED COLD FRONT PAST THE EASTERN SHORE OF LK ONTARIO AND PAST THE ROC-BUF METRO AREAS WHICH CONCURS WITH NCEP PLACEMENT. SOME OF OUR MESONET AWS SITES IN THE FINGER LAKES ALSO HAD WIND SHIFTING TO A WLY DIRECTION AT 13Z...SO FRONT MOVING THRU FINGER LAKES NOW. PRE-FRONTAL TROF WAS DRAPED OVER THE WRN CATS AND NE PA. ATMOS ALREADY MDTLY UNSTABLE DUE TO HIGH SFC BASED DWPTS AND SOME COOLING ALOFT FROM PASSING TROF TO OUR NORTH. ADDL HEATING WILL COOK THINGS UP ESPLY FOR OUR SERN AREAS AND MODIFIED ALY SOUNDING GETS CAPES TO 2500+ TWD MID AFTERNOON. RUC CAPE AT SWF IS NEAR 3000 J/KG AT ABOUT 1 PM. 06Z ETA RUN HAD GOOD MASS FIELD PROGS AT 12Z...AND LATEST RUC IN AGREEMENT SO FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL ZONES BY NOON. COLD THETA-E ADVECTIONS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THESE AREAS (AND MAYBE EVEN PLAIN OLD SHOWERS)...BUT FRONT WILL MEET UP WITH TROF OVER OUR SERN ZONES. UPPER SUPPORT WITH FRONT IS LACKING AND THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE WEAK NVA OVER MOST OF THE AREA...BUT LLVL MOIST CONVG AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE PROGGED BY RUC SOUNDINGS AT SWF AND AVP WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES. MIDLVL WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MINIMAL...BUT VERY HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL CAN OVERCOME THE WIND ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. EXPECT THAT OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL BE THE INITIATION AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...AND MUCH OF THE SERIOUS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HANDED OVER TO ALY/OKX/PHI AND NEW ENGLAND OFCS. STILL...DELWARE/PIKE/SULLIVAN AND POSSIBLY LACKAWANNA AND LUZERNE HAVE A SHOT FOR ISOLD PULSE SVR MICROBURSTS AND MARGINAL LARGE HAIL SO I'LL BE ISSUING A SEVERE WX OUTLOOK FOR THOSE AREAS...WHICH IS VERY MUCH IN AGREEMENT WITH SPC SWODY1. THE "SHOW" SHOULD BE OVER PRETTY QUICK BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT AREA TO BE PRECIP FREE BY 5 OR 6 PM...THEN SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN TONIGHT. .BGM...NONE. BREWSTER ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 845 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003 CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA AND LATEST RUC DOES NOT FAVOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER TROF BEGINS TO EDGE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SFC FRONT SLIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED GOING FORECAST TO DROP PCPN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT AS LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE WILL MAKE NO CHANGES. MARINE...ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FCST IS TO DROP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...FCST IS ON TRACK. .MHX...NONE. MF/WS nc FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 810 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003 FCST CHALLENGE...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. UPDATED FCST EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER. KMVX SHOWS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT MOST OF THE PCPN IS JUST SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. BASES OF THE SHOWERS ARE AOA 8000FT AND WITH DRY AIR AT THE SFC SOME EVAPORATION OCCURING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF STRONG 700 MB TEMP ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL ND FEEDING SHOWER ACTION. BISMARCK/MINOT RADARS SHOWS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FORM BTWN DVL/MOT AND MOVE EAST AND LIKELY SEE THIS CONTINUE TIL 06Z. AFTER 06Z...WARM ADVECTION DROPS DOWN TO 850 MB LEVEL WITH VERY STRONG 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION/SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT (SHOWALTERS) AND UPSTREAM 40-50KT JET SETTING THE STAGE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. FAVORABLE LEFT QUAD OF 85H JET TOO OUR WEST HOWEVER ACCORDING TO RUC SO DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OUT IN BISMARCK AREA AND THEN HEADING EAST. 12Z ETA 22 KM FRITSCH/KAIN CONVECTION MODEL AVBL ON THE WEB SHOWS PCPN DEVELOPMENT JAMESTOWN AREA 06-09Z...THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS EAST TOWARD FAR/GFK AND NW MN 09Z-12Z. INTENSITY OF WARM ADVECTION AND JET WOULD POINT TO SOME ELEVATED SVR CELLS WITH HAIL PSBL. HWO UPDATED EARLIER THIS AFTN FOR THIS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE SO WILL NOT PUT SVR IN ZONES. GOING FCST HAD TSTM COVERAGE HANDELED WELL LATE TONIGHT. WILL EXAMINE ANY MODEL DATA AND OBS AT 9 PM AND SEND UPDATE OUT AFTERWARDS. .FGF...NONE. $$ RIDDLE nd FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 555 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003 MID CLOUDS ASSOC WITH 700 MB WARM ADVECTION CAUSING INCREASING SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME NEW THUNDER AT 2245Z JUST EAST OF FARGO. WILL NEED TO UPDATE AND ADD EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FCST ALL BUT SE ND WHICH IS ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE CLOUD MASS. REVIEW OF RUC/18Z ETA SHOWS ALL LOOKING GOOD FOR BIGGER STORMS AFT 06Z AS WARM ADVECTION LOWERS TO 850 MB. ------------------------------------------------------------ PREV AFD FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION AND TEMPS .OVERVIEW... SFC HIGH MOVING EAST AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEADING EDGE OF 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO AREA. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH ETA A BIT FASTER WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...AND GFS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ETA INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER AND MATCHES UP BETTER WITH RUC MODEL THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT SO WILL UTILIZE WITH NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE OVERALL. .TONIGHT... IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION ON 315K SFC AFTER 06Z INTO SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA...MOVING TO JUST NORTHEAST OF GFK BY 12Z SAT. THIS LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH 50KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO OVER 1.60 INCHES. SHOWALTERS ALSO DESTABILIZE TO AROUND -3C OVER SOUTHEAST ND AFTER 06Z. WILL MENTION SCATTERED THUNDER MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO MIX BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT COOLEST READINGS IN EAST CLOSE TO DEPARTING HIGH. WILL FRESHEN UP HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL EVENTS WITH STRONGER STORMS LATE TONIGHT. .SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... STRONG CAP DEVELOPS BY 18Z SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +14C...WITH SOME MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION LINGERING EAST OF VALLEY. EXPECT A WARM DAY WITH LOW/MID 90S IN SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 80 IN NORTHEAST. CAP WILL WEAKEN AS MID LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION INTO SUNDAY AND MOVE ACTIVITY EAST BY 00Z MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDER COMES ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT. THEREFORE...THUNDER CHANCES MONDAY FOR ENTIRE AREA LOOKS GOOD WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF FRONT. .EXTENDED... EXTENDED MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT INTIALLY WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE BREAKING DOWN CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE. MODELS THEN SPLIT BETWEEN EITHER MID LEVEL ZONAL OR NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD. FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SHOULD SEE COUPLE OF DRY DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. CANADIAN...UK AND TO EXTENT GFS STILL BRINGING SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY THROUGH MIDWEEK. PCPN IN FCST FOR THIS FEATURE AND SEE NO REASON TO ALTER ATTM. COOLDOWN STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH MOST OF UPCOMING WEEK BASED ON THERMAL COLUMN AND THICKNESS. WILL NEED TO LOWER TEMPS SOME THROUGH THIS PERIOD. .FGF...NONE. $$ KELLENBENZ/VOELKER nd FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 223 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION AND TEMPS .OVERVIEW... SFC HIGH MOVING EAST AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEADING EDGE OF 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO AREA. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH ETA A BIT FASTER WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...AND GFS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ETA INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER AND MATCHES UP BETTER WITH RUC MODEL THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT SO WILL UTILIZE WITH NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE OVERALL. .TONIGHT... IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION ON 315K SFC AFTER 06Z INTO SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA...MOVING TO JUST NORTHEAST OF GFK BY 12Z SAT. THIS LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH 50KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO OVER 1.60 INCHES. SHOWALTERS ALSO DESTABILIZE TO AROUND -3C OVER SOUTHEAST ND AFTER 06Z. WILL MENTION SCATTERED THUNDER MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO MIX BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT COOLEST READINGS IN EAST CLOSE TO DEPARTING HIGH. WILL FRESHEN UP HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL EVENTS WITH STRONGER STORMS LATE TONIGHT. .SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... STRONG CAP DEVELOPS BY 18Z SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +14C...WITH SOME MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION LINGERING EAST OF VALLEY. EXPECT A WARM DAY WITH LOW/MID 90S IN SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 80 IN NORTHEAST. CAP WILL WEAKEN AS MID LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION INTO SUNDAY AND MOVE ACTIVITY EAST BY 00Z MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDER COMES ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT. THEREFORE...THUNDER CHANCES MONDAY FOR ENTIRE AREA LOOKS GOOD WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF FRONT. .EXTENDED... EXTENDED MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT INTIALLY WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE BREAKING DOWN CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE. MODELS THEN SPLIT BETWEEN EITHER MID LEVEL ZONAL OR NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD. FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SHOULD SEE COUPLE OF DRY DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. CANADIAN...UK AND TO EXTENT GFS STILL BRINGING SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY THROUGH MIDWEEK. PCPN IN FCST FOR THIS FEATURE AND SEE NO REASON TO ALTER ATTM. COOLDOWN STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH MOST OF UPCOMING WEEK BASED ON THERMAL COLUMN AND THICKNESS. WILL NEED TO LOWER TEMPS SOME THROUGH THIS PERIOD. .FGF...NONE. $$ KELLENBENZ/VOELKER nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 800 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2003 CURRENT SURFACE MAP HAS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE CWA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT HAVE ALSO DISSIPATED. 18Z ETA/00Z RUC INDICATE THAT THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD. GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. .UNR...NONE. $$ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 950 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2003 A HOT AND WINDY DAY IS IN STORE AS A 850/700 MB THERMAL RIDGE AND TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS. 12Z UPPER AIR AND RUC DATA SUGGESTED TEMPERATURES MIGHT GET A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...BUT HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT US FROM HEATING TO OUR FULL POTENTIAL (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY). WATER VAPOR IMAGES DID SHOW A WAVE MOVING THROUGH WRN WY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MAY HELP IN DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WRN CWFA THIS AFTN AND EVNG...ESPECIALLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IN INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHEAR WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL...AND FREEZING LEVELS QUITE HIGH...SO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT (IF ANY SEVERE DOES OCCUR). .UNR...NONE. $$ BUNKERS sd EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON 900 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2003 .SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS WILL MEET A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO TONIGHT AND LAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING MAINLY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. .DISCUSSION... .TONIGHT...THE RELATIVELY DRY OFFSHORE TROF CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW INROADS THROUGH THE PAC NW THIS EVENING...WHILE A MUCH SOGGIER SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHEAST FROM EC OREGON. AT 0330Z THE PAC NW TROF SEEMS TO HAVE PUSHED INTO NW WASHINGTON WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FINALLY PUSHING OVER THE CASCADES PER THE LATEST OBS FROM ELLENSBURG AND THE LAKE CHELAN AREA. THIS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SKIES SHOULD EXHIBIT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND AS WELL. FARTHER EAST...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE MOISTURE LADEN AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO STREAM NNE AHEAD OF THE OREGON SHORTWAVE. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS PLACES THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT SOUTH OF A SILVER VALLEY TO A BLUE MOUNTAIN LINE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESERVED FOR LEWSITON...THE CAMAS PRAIRIE...BLUE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SHOSHONE COUNTY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE THUNDER IN THIS REGION PER THE LATEST RUC DTHETA-E/DZ PROGS...HOWEVER THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO WE WILL KEEP IT IN THE FORECAST JUST IN CASE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH THE NIGHT SO SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINS...WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME TOTALS ABOVE .50 INCHES BY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE. THE SOGGY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH LIGHT VALLEY WINDS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME VALLEY FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT. FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. ...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS... GEG 055/078/049/078/049/080 410110 COE 057/076/047/076/046/079 510110 PUW 053/075/046/074/044/079 510110 LWS 063/081/056/081/052/085 710110 CQV 054/080/047/080/047/084 410110 SPT 059/077/046/077/045/080 520110 WWP 059/074/047/073/045/073 720220 MWH 059/083/050/082/050/084 110110 EAT 059/083/054/082/053/082 -10110 OMK 055/084/048/082/050/083 -10110 .OTX...NONE. $$ wa SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 330 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2003 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ...MORE OF THE SAME... REALLY...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN STORE FOR TODAY'S WEATHER...SAVE FOR A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. ACCORDING TO THE RUC ANALYSIS...THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS SHIFTED EAST...WELL EAST...OF COLORADO OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL INCLINES OF A SECONDARY UPPER HIGH CENTER THAT SHOW UP OVER COLORADO...NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION...FROM TIME TO TIME. SATELLITE PICTURES...FOR THE 2ND NIGHT IN A ROW...INDICATE A HEALTHY MONSOON PLUME OVER EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTED EAST INTO THE PLAINS...THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER SHOT AT SEEING SOME THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE MONSOON PLUME CREEPS THIS WAY. HOWEVER...WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER...THE PLAINS FARTHER EAST...CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER...LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CURRENT POPS IN GRIDS COVER THIS SCENARIO WELL SO REALLY NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOWEVER...WILL BOOST THE EL PASO COUNTY POP A LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER ALIGN WITH BOU GRIDS PER CHAT/COORDINATION CALL THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST UNDER BETTER ORGANIZED/MORE INTENSE CELLS...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DUE TO THE MONSOON PLUME OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH. KGJT REPORTED 154% OF NORMAL LAST NIGHT AT 00Z...WITH KDEN REPORTING 147% OF NORMAL. THE FARTHER WEST YOU GO INTO THE MONSOON PLUME...THE MORE MOISTURE THERE IS TO REALIZE. AT 12Z YESTERDAY...KGJT REPORTED A WHOPPING 170% OF NORMAL WITH 1.06 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...NOT BAD FOR AN ARID GREAT BASIN SITE. KTAD GAVE US AN EXAMPLE OF THE POTENTIAL YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE SITE PICKED UP 1.31 IN THE COURSE OF 2 HOURS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM...WITH THE MAJORITY OF IT (1.13 INCHES) FALLING BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM. THIS TYPE OF POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LONG AS THE MONSOON PLUME STAYS ACTIVE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...STILL DON'T SEE ANY REAL BIG COOLING (DESPITE THE CONTINUED STRONG COOLING INDICATED BY GUIDANCE). THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST COOLING AT H7 BUT NO CHANGE AT H5. SEEMS LIKE THE H7 VALUES HAVE BEEN MORE FICKLE LATELY (PROBABLY BEING AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK)...WITH THE H5 VALUES A MORE RELIABLE INDICATOR OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE. SO I WILL USE THE H5 TEMPS AS GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE H7 TEMPS. ONE FINAL NOTE...COULD GET A BIT BREEZY ON THE PLAINS TODAY...AS A COMBINATION A SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...AND GOOD MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD "KICK UP THE DUST" A LITTLE. LW LONG TERM DISCUSSION...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY). ISSUE THIS CYCLE HINGES ON CHANGING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL NORTHERLY SURGE(S) FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. LATEST LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE WITH EARLIER THEME OF CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF CWFA MAJORITY OF UPCOMING WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER MISSOURI SUNDAY WHICH THEN BECOMES CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND THEN REMAINS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LATEST GFS HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED HEALTHY MONDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NOW HAS NEXT HEALTHY SURGE NOT COMING THROUGH UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY. LATEST 84 HOUR ETA ONLY HINTS AT A WEAK SURGE ATTEMPTING TO ENTER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO BY 12Z TUESDAY. SO WILL BEGIN ADJUSTING GRIDS/ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE TO ALMOST NON-EXISTENT MONDAY NIGHT SURGE...WHICH MEANS THAT TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE ADJUSTED UPWARD AS WELL AS SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. WILL ALSO TWEAK TEMPERATURES UP FOR SURROUNDING DAYS. WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WILL GENERALLY KEEP INHERITED POPS AS MOISTURE TAP IS NEVER FAR AWAY AND AT TIMES RIGHT OVERHEAD CWFA AS UPPER HIGH MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE REGION TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO. NEXT CONCERN IS HOW MUCH FAITH TO PUT INTO GFS PROJECTED THURSDAY NIGHT SURGE. SINCE THIS IS AROUND DAY 6...WILL KEEP A WARY EYE ON THIS POSSIBILITY...WHICH IF IN FACT IF IT COMES TO PASS WILL ALLOW A CHANGE TO A MUCH COOLER WEATHER REGIME BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ONLY SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. .PUB...NONE. co SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI 145 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003 .TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT IS THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL MAKE IT OR BREAK IT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF ITS CURRENT POSITION WHICH IS NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL SLIDE IS THE AGONIZING QUESTION. GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT INITIALIZED THE WIND FIELD PATTERN WITH ANY ACCURACY SO THIS WILL BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE. BY 06Z, MESO-ETA AND RUC BOTH HAD WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE GFS HAD EAST-SOUTHEAST WHICH AT 04Z BUOYS WERE 100. SO WITH THAT IN MIND, I THINK MAYBE MESO-ETA AND RUC PUSH RIDGE AXIS SOUTH A LITTLE TOO FAST. ALL IN ALL, WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY BUT DEPENDING ON IF STEERING FLOW REMAINS NEAR CALM OR GOES WESTERLY AS MESO-ETA AND RUC SHOW WILL DETERMINE WHERE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND MOVES. WILL GO WITH GFS POPS FOR ABOVE REASONINGS WHICH STILL IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE INDICATED. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SUNDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OR DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AGAIN. .MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE TIME BEING, DEPRESSION #9 HAS GONE BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE AND THUS WILL NEED TO BACK OFF ON EXTENDED WINDS. OF COURSE, THIS COULD ALL CHANGE AGAIN IF IT REGENERATES AND MODEL GUIDANCE OF LITTLE HELP AT THIS POINT AS THEY ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. .MARINE... SEAS NEARLY FLAT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE ON TOP OF OUR CWA BUT THEN PICK UP A LITTLE AS RIDGE MOVES NORTH AND WAVE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BUT AS STATED ABOVE, WILL BACK OFF ON SPEEDS BUT GULF STREAM WATERS WILL STILL BE ADVISORY CRITERIA. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS PBI BB 090/076 090/077 089 305252 FLL BB 090/080 089/080 089 304252 MIA BB 091/078 090/079 090 304252 APF BB 090/075 090/076 090 304242 $$ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003 FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS IN OK AGREEMENT...BUT THE AVN HAS A MUCH STRONGER VORT MAX AT 500MB IN CENTRAL ND AT 06Z. IT TAKES THIS FEATURE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE RUC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORT MORE OF A ETA SOLUTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER CWA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY DUE IN PART TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEITHER THE ETA NOR THE AVN MODELS SHOW ANY QPF OVER OUR CWA NOW. EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING. LOW LEVEL JET ALSO DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 35-40KT AT 850MB BY 00Z SUN. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET...THETA-E RIDGE...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND COLD FRONT WILL ALL COMBINE TO SET OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I UPPED THE POPS SOME TONIGHT. SUNDAY...FRONT CONTINUES EAST AND WILL END RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE WARMER ETA MOS NUMBERS TODAY. COORD WITH FGF. .DLH...NONE. $$ MELDE mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 952 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003 .OVERVIEW...PLENTY OF FOG AROUND THIS MORNING. BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS, LAST ZONES TO SEE THE FOG LIFT WILL BE THOSE BORDERNG THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOWS A VORT LOBE SETTLING SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND TN VALLEY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS DOING THE SAME. A STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FOUND S OF MOB. THE ETA DOES NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS LATTER FEATURE ALL THAT WELL. FOR THAT REASON, BELIEVE IT IS TOO QUICK TO BRING THE SURFACE TROUGH SWD TODAY. THE GFS RESOLVES THE SURFACE LOW BEST AND IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWED THE PW IS STILL WELL OVER 2 INCHES. GRANTED, DRIER AIR IS EVIDENT ON THE KBMX AND KFFC SOUNDINGS, BUT WE BELIEVE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE THIS MAKES IT SWD INTO OUR FL ZONES. FOR THIS REASON, BELIEVE OUR LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SW TO W MOST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WEAK UPPER SUPPORT TO PROVIDE FOR GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS OUR FL ZONES WITH SOMEWHAT LESS CONVECTION N OF THE BORDER. .UPDATE...WILL NEED TO UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG WORDING. AT THAT TIME, WE MAY TWEAK POPS 10 PERCENT HERE AND THERE. HOWEVER, THE IDEA OF HIGHER POPS SE AND LOWER N LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AS WELL. MOS APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH FOR TODAY. WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MOST OF THE DAY. .MARINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED. WOOL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ***************************************************************** 215 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003 .OVERVIEW... WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW LARGE AND PROGRESSIVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL USA WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING S INTO THE SE USA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. W/V AND LOCAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT DRYING BEHIND THIS TROUGH...WITH LESS THAN 1.5" PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) RECORDED IN THE 23/00Z FFC/BMX RAOBS. 04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED S-SW OF PENSACOLA. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE JUST OFF OUR WRN COAST THANKS TO ISENTROPIC LIFT NE OF THE LOW. RECAP...FRIDAY WAS INDEED DISTURBED...BUT THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WAS SEEN AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER OUR AL/GA ZONES. THUS...POPS WERE A BIT OVERDONE FOR THE FL ZONES. .SHORT TERM... TODAY...MODELS AGREE ON DRIER NLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE TO WORK S INTO OUR CWFA...WHILE REGION OF WLY FLOW BELOW 700 MB GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. EVEN THOUGH THINGS MAY BE A LITTLE TO SYNOPTICALLY FORCED TO FIT INTO OUR LOCAL SEABREEZE CLIMATOLOGY...WE STILL WOULD EXPECT TO SEE HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR FL ZONES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS...AND DO NOT PLAN ON CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY. SUNDAY...MEAN FLOW BELOW 700 MB BECOMES STRONGER AND MORE OUT OF THE NE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT DROP OF AROUND 0.2" PWAT AND MID LEVEL WARMING. THUS...EXPECT HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ERN FL BIG BEND WHERE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INLAND SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER. .MARINE... NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED DUE TO LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT. .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS. .EXTENDED... NO CHANGES MADE. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 89 73 92 72 / 50 20 30 20 PFN 89 75 92 75 / 50 20 30 20 DHN 89 73 91 74 / 40 20 30 10 ABY 90 73 91 72 / 40 20 20 10 VLD 89 72 93 71 / 60 20 30 10 CTY 88 72 90 72 / 60 20 40 20 .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. $$ TJT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 918 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2003 SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WITHIN AREA OF 700 THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND AREA OF ENHANCED 250MB WINDS CURRENTLY GENERATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. RUC PICKED UP ON THIS WELL AND HAS ACTIVITY DECREASING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...REFLECTED WELL IN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. HAVE BUMPED UP THE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON 00Z AND 12Z MODEL 850 TEMP FORECASTS AND THEIR VARIOUS BIAS'. THIS WOULD SUGGEST READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S WEST TO NEAR 103 OR SO EAST. RECORDS IN JEOPARDY TODAY ARE YUMA (99 DEGREES)...GOODLAND (101)...MCCOOK (103)...AND HILL CITY (104 DEGREES). HAVE ADDED RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WORDING ACCORDINGLY. ONLY OTHER UPDATE ITEM THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE THE WINDS. CURRENTLY HAVE GUSTS TO 27 KTS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND EXPECT THESE WINDS TO INCREASE IN BOTH SPEED AND AREAL COVERAGE. BUMPED UP ALL BUT EASTERN THIRD OF AREA TO WINDY CATEGORY AND EASTERN THIRD TO BREEZY. .GLD...NONE. $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA 1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003 WILL NOT UPDATE FORECAST AT THIS TIME WITH RESERVATIONS. PERHAPS OVERTHINKING SITUATION...BUT HAVE SOME OVER-RIDING CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. CLOSE SCRUTINY OF 12Z ANALYSIS REVEALS OUR CWA PLACED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SOME FORM OF TROUGH AND CONVERGENGE FEATURES AT ALL MANDATORY LEVELS...IN SOME FORM OR FASHION. AT H25...A DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR KBHM...ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...INTO GULF OFF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. H50 TROUGH IS DISPLACED FARTHER EAST AS EXTENSION OF SYNOPTIC TROUGH ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD. H70 TROUGH IS INVERTED FEATURE FROM MOBILE BAY TO NEAR KBVE AND MOVING UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KANSAS. THE H85 TROUGH IS ONCE AGAIN AN INVERTED FEATURE EXTENDING FROM POPLARVILLE...ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTAIN TO LOWER TERREBONNE PARISH. H925 IS A WELL PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH FROM VICKSBURG TO LOWER TERREBONNE. WHILE SOME OF THESE FEATURES INDEPENDENTLY WOULD SERVE AS INHIBITORS FOR RAINFALL...OTHERS WOULD FAVOR SUCH. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED AN ACCAS FIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED IN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY ALOFT THAT COULD ENHANCE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AFTER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS EXCEEDED. MSAS INDICATES CYCLONICALLY INDUCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MSAS ALSO SHOWS SURFACE BASED LI'S FALLING OFF STEADILY INTO THE -7 AND -8 RANGE OVER THE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN BASIN. MUCH OF THIS EXPLANATION POINTS TO PRE-MCS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND SHOULD WARRANT CONSIDERATIONS FOR HIGHER POPS. THERMODYNAMICALLY...THE SOUNDING WAS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A P.W. OF 2.18" AND UNMODIFIED LI OF -6. RAN THE PRECIPATION CALCULATOR AND RICKS INDEX SCHEME AND RECIEVED SURPRISING OUTPUT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THUS THE CONCERNS FOR RAIN CHANCES. USING A 345K LIFT FROM 878MB YIELDED A POP 80%...DP 37MB...PCPN 0.76"... POTENTIAL PCPN 3.41" FOR TEMP BELOW 74F...FMAP 0.82"...RICKS INDEX 129...PROB SEVERE 0%...GUSTS 42-52KT (49-61MPH)...HAIL 0.67" (MARBLE)...TOR NIL. HAVE DIFFICULTIES DISCOUNTING THESE RESULTS AS THE TRACK RECORD FOR THIS TECHNIQUE IS PRETTY GOOD. USING THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL HAIL-VIL SCHEME FOR HAIL SIZES SHOWS A SOUNDING VIL OF 47...ARKANSAS VIL OF THE DAY 63...PEA 44...MARBLE 46...PENNY 48...NICKEL 50...QUARTER 52...HALF DOLLAR 54...2" DIA 56...3" DIA 58. THESE ARE VERY LOW VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR SO VILS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS MARGINALLY SUGGESTIVE OF HAIL DEVELOPMENT. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HAIL FROM STRONGER STORMS IN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HAVING SAID ALL OF THIS...WILL RESERVE UPDATE OF ZONES TO MAINTAIN ONLY 30 PERCENT POPS AND SEE WHAT UNFOLDS IN THE UPCOMING HOURS. THERE ARE A FEW CONS TO THE ARGUMENT THAT IS THROWING UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS THINKING BUT AT LEAST WE ARE NOW AWARE AND ALERT TO A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA LATER TODAY. LATEST RUC IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THIS THINKING...AND NGM TO SOME EXTENT. .NEW...NONE LA...NONE. MS...NONE. $$ 24 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1041 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003 FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY INCLUDE TEMPS AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY -SHRA WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WRN U P THIS AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRES (1025MB) HAS BUILT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. STRONG LLJ (12Z H8 WINDS OF 50KT AT KABR) HAS LED TO AREA OF CONVECTION IN NRN MN. THIS CONVECTION IS STILL FIRING...BUT HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OF LATE (SEE WARMING OF IR CLOUD TOPS)...DUE TO DIURNAL WEAKENING OF LLJ. BAND OF -SHRA EXTENDS FROM NRN MN SEWD THROUGH NW WI...AND IS PROPAGATING SLOWLY EWD. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS PCPN IS ALONG AXIS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY (EDGE OF NEGATIVE H7-H5 DTHETA/DZ). OTHERWISE...SKIES REMAIN MSUNNY EXCEPT FOR INCRG HIGH WAA CLOUDS OUT WEST AHEAD OF PCPN BAND. TEMPS DROPPED INTO 40S OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE RISEN INTO 60S AT 14Z. PCPN WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO DRY AIR OVER THE U P TODAY. W/ SFC HIGH IN PLACE...DRY/STABLE ELY LLVL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...PER CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS...AND AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY MOVES INTO THE WEST THIS AFTN PER THE RUC AND MESOETA...MAY SEE SOME -SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN WEST THIS AFTN (EARLY AFTN IN FACT). LGT RAIN HAS MADE IT TO KASX ALREADY...AND CIG THERE HAS DROPPED TO 2.4KFT IN LAST 1/2 HOUR. FURTHER SE...PCPN HAS MADE IT TO KRRL IN N CENTRAL WI...BUT W/ ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS. SO... WHEREAS ANY PCPN REACHING SFC WILL BE LGT...CURRENT TRENDS WARRANT MENTION OF LGT SHRA AS OPPOSED TO JUST SPRINKLES IN FAR WEST. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO....H8 TEMPS OF 10-12C AND MIXING TO NEAR THAT LEVEL WILL GIVE HIGHS (INLAND) INTO THE MID 70S. BUT...NO DOUBT THAT CLD COVER AND CHANCE OF PCPN WILL HOLD THINGS DOWN OUT WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLDY ACROSS MOST OF GOGEBIC COUNTY. WILL SEND UPDATE SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR PCPN TRENDS AND CLOUD COVER IN FAR WRN ZONES. WILL ALSO UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES... MAINLY IN THE WEST. .MQT...NONE. JKL mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1120 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003 BIGGEST CONCERN THIS MORNING DEALS WITH HIGHS FOR TODAY. UPDATED ZONES EARLIER AND TWEAKED HIGHS UP EVERYWHERE 3 TO 4 DEGREES. 12Z RUC WAS SHOWING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ALL CWA AND WITH GOOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM A BIT ABOVE FCST HIGHS. ONLY PLACE WHERE RECORD HIGHS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY IS THE KATY AREA...WHERE THEIR RECORD HIGH IS 98. ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER FOR MORE SUNSHINE. .ABR...NONE. HINTZ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1010 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003 UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY...MAINLY TO UPDATE WINDS...MAX TEMPERATURES AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. 12Z ETA 850/2M TEMPS SUPPORT CURRENT FCST HIGH TEMPS AND MAIN CHANGES WERE TO EXPAND THE AREA OF 100+ HIGHS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND BUMPED TEMPS IN EXTREME WESTERN ZONES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW WILL BE SUSTAINED WIND AND GUSTS. FSL RUC HINTING AT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT KEPT THEM BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS RUC LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE....ALTHOUGH TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SITES BEGIN MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. .FSD...NONE $$ JRM sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 200 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003 CURRENTLY: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE FLORIDA ZONES ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND LEFTOVER STORM BOUNDARIES. THESE STORMS STARTED DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST BUT NOW ARE MOVING MORE SOUTHERLY...BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER GA AND AL ZONES. MODELS ARE BUILDING IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST BRINGING THE AREA OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY TOMORROW WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY AND THEN NE DUE TO A WEAK FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. BEHIND THIS FRONT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WHICH IS EASILY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER TENNESSEE AND CAROLINAS SHOULD SETTLE IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT STAY ON THE EDGE OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE ON TAP BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO (90/70) FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS. .MARINE... NO HIGHLIGHTS. .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS. .EXTENDED... THE BIG CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED IS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WAS PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE IN PROXIMITY OF THE CWA IS NOW MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. POPS, WINDS, SEAS AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE ADJUSTED DOWN AND TEMPS UP TO NEAR CLIMO FROM THE MID TO END OF THE WEEK. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 73 92 72 91 / 20 30 20 40 PFN 75 90 76 89 / 20 30 20 40 DHN 73 92 74 92 / 20 30 10 30 ABY 72 92 72 92 / 20 30 10 30 VLD 72 93 71 92 / 20 30 10 30 CTY 72 91 72 90 / 20 40 20 40 .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. $$ BOLINSKI PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.******************************************* .OVERVIEW...PLENTY OF FOG AROUND THIS MORNING. BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS, LAST ZONES TO SEE THE FOG LIFT WILL BE THOSE BORDERNG THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOWS A VORT LOBE SETTLING SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND TN VALLEY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS DOING THE SAME. A STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FOUND S OF MOB. THE ETA DOES NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS LATTER FEATURE ALL THAT WELL. FOR THAT REASON, BELIEVE IT IS TOO QUICK TO BRING THE SURFACE TROUGH SWD TODAY. THE GFS RESOLVES THE SURFACE LOW BEST AND IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWED THE PW IS STILL WELL OVER 2 INCHES. GRANTED, DRIER AIR IS EVIDENT ON THE KBMX AND KFFC SOUNDINGS, BUT WE BELIEVE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE THIS MAKES IT SWD INTO OUR FL ZONES. FOR THIS REASON, BELIEVE OUR LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SW TO W MOST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WEAK UPPER SUPPORT TO PROVIDE FOR GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS OUR FL ZONES WITH SOMEWHAT LESS CONVECTION N OF THE BORDER. .UPDATE...WILL NEED TO UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG WORDING. AT THAT TIME, WE MAY TWEAK POPS 10 PERCENT HERE AND THERE. HOWEVER, THE IDEA OF HIGHER POPS SE AND LOWER N LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AS WELL. MOS APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH FOR TODAY. WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MOST OF THE DAY. .MARINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED. WOOL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ***************************************************************** 215 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003 .OVERVIEW... WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW LARGE AND PROGRESSIVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL USA WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING S INTO THE SE USA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. W/V AND LOCAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT DRYING BEHIND THIS TROUGH...WITH LESS THAN 1.5" PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) RECORDED IN THE 23/00Z FFC/BMX RAOBS. 04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED S-SW OF PENSACOLA. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE JUST OFF OUR WRN COAST THANKS TO ISENTROPIC LIFT NE OF THE LOW. RECAP...FRIDAY WAS INDEED DISTURBED...BUT THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WAS SEEN AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER OUR AL/GA ZONES. THUS...POPS WERE A BIT OVERDONE FOR THE FL ZONES. .SHORT TERM... TODAY...MODELS AGREE ON DRIER NLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE TO WORK S INTO OUR CWFA...WHILE REGION OF WLY FLOW BELOW 700 MB GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. EVEN THOUGH THINGS MAY BE A LITTLE TO SYNOPTICALLY FORCED TO FIT INTO OUR LOCAL SEABREEZE CLIMATOLOGY...WE STILL WOULD EXPECT TO SEE HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR FL ZONES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS...AND DO NOT PLAN ON CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY. SUNDAY...MEAN FLOW BELOW 700 MB BECOMES STRONGER AND MORE OUT OF THE NE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT DROP OF AROUND 0.2" PWAT AND MID LEVEL WARMING. THUS...EXPECT HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ERN FL BIG BEND WHERE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INLAND SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER. .MARINE... NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED DUE TO LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT. .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS. .EXTENDED... NO CHANGES MADE. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 89 73 92 72 / 50 20 30 20 PFN 89 75 92 75 / 50 20 30 20 DHN 89 73 91 74 / 40 20 30 10 ABY 90 73 91 72 / 40 20 20 10 VLD 89 72 93 71 / 60 20 30 10 CTY 88 72 90 72 / 60 20 40 20 .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. $$ TJT fl SOUTHWEST IDAHO/SOUTHEAST OREGON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2003 HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING SCT-BKN AFTERNOON CU AS COPIUS RAINFALL YESTERDAY /0.2-1.17 INCHES/ LED TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. IN ADDITION A WEAK WAVE A H7 SEEN ON MORNING RAOB PLOT OVER NV IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO SRN MTS TONIGHT. AN UPPER VORT CENTER NEAR OAKLAND IS SHEARING OUT TO THE NE AND RIDING UP AN ELONGATED SHEAR VORT TROF OVER THE CWFA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOUNDING SHOWED 300 CAPE WITH -2 LI FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON FCST HI OF 80 AND BOI IS ALREADY 82. RUC SHOWS HIGHEST CAPES FROM OWYHEES/SW HIGHLANDS CIRCLING AROUND TO THE BLUES AND INTO WEST CENTRAL MTS THIS EVENING. SO EXPECT ISOL THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AROUND THE S-W-N PERIPHERY OF THE BOISE CWFA. CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY DROP TO NEAR DEWPOINTS IN MID 50S VALLEYS AND 40S MOUNTAINS. MANY AREAS SOIL MOISTURE STILL UP AND LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SO EXPECT AREAS OF FG IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCAL FOG IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. DRIER WSW FLOW WITH THERMAL RIDGE REASSERTING ITSELF NW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT TO 20 RIDGE TOPS. AVN/MRF AND UK MET RUNS ALL HINTING A SOME PRECIP AND MOISTURE WORKING TO NEAR NV-ID BORDER LATE TUE THROUGH WED AND HAVE TRENDED MORE MOIST THERE IN COORD WITH LKN AND PER SLC/ELKO GRIDS. SO WARMER WED NIGHT MINS BUT COOLER OVER SE ZONES ON HIGHS PER CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHC MAINLY DRY GUSTY TS. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY AS RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE SW U.S. THOUGH THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR WEAK UPPER WAVES TO PUSH THRU THE WRN US ESPECIALLY TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. .BOI...NONE. $$ = VM id AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS 303 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003 MAIN CONCERNS ARE IN THE LONGER RANGE OF THE FCST. SHORTER TERM HAS SOME CONCERN IN CONVECTIVE CHCS THIS EVENING. APPEARS ON LATEST RUCII THAT A BIT STEEPER LAPSE RATES, REFLECTED TOO IN H7 TEMPS, WERE OVER THE SWRN CWA. WITH SATELLITE INDICATING CONVECTIVE DVLPMT THAT AREA ALREADY, WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS THIS EVENING THERE. REST OF AREA WILL BE CLEAR OR HAVE DMSHG CU THIS EVENING. ALL OF AREA SHOULD BE CLEAR BY OR BEFORE MIDN. HIGH TEMPS NEXT FEW DAYS TO BE OVER 100. MET GUIDANCE BETTER...AND MESO-ETA SFC TEMPS MAY BE BEST OF ALL AS FAR OUT AS THEY GO. NEXT BNDRY APPEARS WILL BE NORTH OF AREA IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THUS, WILL GO PLUS OR MINUS AROUND 100 THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS AT NIGHT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE WELL OVER 100 AFTN HOURS NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER NIGHTTIME READINGS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...THUS PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORIES. AS MENTIONED, MAIN CONCERN IS LATER IN THE WEEK WITH APPCHG WAVE AND SFC FNT. EURO MODEL...PREFERRED MODEL MUCH OF THE SUMMER...HAS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THIS IS APPARENT SYSTEM EURO MODEL ASSOCIATED WITH FNT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. PER LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY, THIS UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE REFORMING A BIT SOUTH OF MRNG POSITION. EURO MODEL THEN MOVES THIS SYSTEM STEADILY TOWARDS NWRN COAST BY TUESDAY. GFS, MUCH LESS PREFERRED MODEL THIS SUMMER, HASTENS MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE AND, FOR THE MOST PART, WEAKENS IT TO NEARLY NOTHING BY WEDNESDAY. EVEN LAST TWO UK MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING TWRD EURO SOLUTION. REFERENCE EURO MODEL...BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MRNG, NOTE 850 MOISTURE/DEW POINTS IN THE BALLPARK FOR PCPN...AND 850 TEMPS COOLER, RELATIVELY SPEAKING, THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOME TIME. THUS, HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH INTRODUCING LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY PER HPC. HOWEVER PREFER TO DRAW DOWN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMO BY SATURDAY VICE SUB-CLIMO READINGS PER HPC. .TOP...NONE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 345 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THIS RIDGE IS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...POISED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LOW IS OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SHOWING UP OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AN UPPER LEVEL JET IS OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...WHILE A LOW LEVEL 30 KNOT JET OVER MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO DIRECT MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ETA/GFS IS DEPICTING THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AND 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES INTO OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW LEVEL 40 KNOT JET WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN TONIGHT FEEDING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ETA/GFS AGREE THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL RELOCATE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. Q-VECTORS STILL SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS OVER THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. A ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPEED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE RELOCATES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FROM THE RAINS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY OVER THE LOW LYING AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AND DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE ARROW HEAD OF MINNESOTA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF MINNESOTA INTO THE UPPER MICHIGAN. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY OVER THE U.P. ETA IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN GFS. IN ANY CASE...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO POPS WILL BE LOW. SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW OVER JAMES BAY SHIFT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE RELOCATES FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RACE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY FEEDING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...WHILE A SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RACE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE. .MQT...NONE. DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003 QUITE A HOT PROD POINTING INTO WCNTL MN AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPS OBSCENELY HOT IN CNTL/ERN SD (95-110F). NO SUPRISE GIVEN H9/H8 TEMPS ON RUC/ETA. QUITE A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY FELL INTO ERN CWA AROUND UPR RIDGE THIS AFTN...KINDA TEMPERING HEATING...BUT STILL LOW/MID 80S. WINDS VERY FIESTY IN AREA OF SIG WAA PRES FALLS IN VRY TIGHT GRADIENT ACRS WRN 1/2 OF CWA. (12MBS ACRS ABOUT 3OO MILES). WAS SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT ISO TSRA MAY POP THIS EVE ON NOSE OF HOT PROD WHERE TC BEING APPROACHES AND VRY NARROW INSTAB AXIS (B+ TO 1500 J/KG) NEAR MAXIMIZED CONV AREA NEAR LO PRES...BUT CAP APPEARS TOO STRONG/MOISTURE TOO WEAK. WL KEEP POPS IN NERN CWA THIS EVE AS UPR DIV AND BACK END OF HUGE SURGE OF WAA...AS WELL AS RESURGENCE OF WSWLY LLJ TO 55KTS MAY CONT TSRA GENERATION OVR NRN WI...BACKING INTO NERN CWA. SMALL POPS THO. ALSO KEPT SMALL POPS OVR NRN/NWRN CWA AS SFC/H7 TROFS SLIP INTO/THRU CWA. CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND ALTHOUGH ALL MECHANISMS OF LIFT (WAA/UPR TROF) WILL BE OUT OF PHASE...AND LLJ POINTS WELL INTO NRN/CNTL WI...MAY BE ENOUGH CONV ALONG FRNT TO LET A FEW TSRAS GET GOING. LLVL MOISTURE NOT THERE...BUT STILL SOME ELEVATED JOULES PEHAPS FOR HIGH BASED ACTION. SUN THE FRONT SLIPS THRU CWA RATHER QUIETLY. PLENTY OF LL HEAT AGAIN SO TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND WITH SUN. PROBABLY SOME MORE CIRRUS DECKS/AC DECKS AROUND SO THEY MAY HOLD HEATING DOWN IN SPOTS. DRIER NWLY SFC FLOW BEHIND FRONT SO AIR WILL HEAT NICELY. FLATTENING OF H5 RIDGE THRU DAY BUT LITTLE FORCING OVR SFC TROF. DID KEEP VRY SMALL POPS VCNTY OF THE FRONT /FAR SRN CWA LATE/ WITH COOLER MID LVL TEMPS AND PEHAPS SOMETHING MAY POP...WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...BUT AGAIN...LACK OF FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE. SUN NIGHT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING CONSISTENT MCS SIGNAL IN GFS/ETA AS WRN END OF FRONT OVR DAKS RETURNS NORTH AS WAA AGAIN INCREASES. H85 JET OF 25 TO 35 KT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK. KEPT CURRENT WX/POP GRIDS FOR EXPANDING TSRA CHANCES ACRS CWA. MAINLY SOUTH THO. MONDAY'S STRONG COLD FRONT HAS LOST A LOT OF OOMPH AS ETA HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS AMPLITUDE...AND NOW FLAT RIDGING WILL PERSIST THRU MID WEEK. THE TROF WHICH WAS SUPPOSED TO BE SO STRONG...COMES THRU IN A MUCH WEAKER FASHION...SO NOT TOO THRILLED ABOUT POPS. STILL LOOKS WARM...AS SLY FLOW PICKS UP. BUT ALREADY HAVE QUESTIONS JUST HOW FAR SOUTH WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH AS H7 HEIGHTS ALREADY BEGIN TO RISE BY TUE AFTN. THIS SETS UP WHAT MAY BE AN ACTIVE WED AND THUR AS WARM FRONT RETURNS AND BIG CANADIAN JET SERVING AS FORCING MECH WITH STRONG SFC LO PRES PER GFS. HEAT PERHAPS COMING IN AGAIN ON THUR. COOLING HAS NOW PUSHED WELL INTO END OF NEXT WEEK...AND TRENDS CONT TO SLOW IT. TEMPS MAY NEED BUMPED UP FURTHER WED AND THUR. .MSP...NONE. $$ BINAU mn COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 200 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003 ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK GREAT FOR CONVECTION TODAY...WE APPEAR TO BE IN A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DUE TO NVA FROM THE SOUTH (AS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS). HAVE SEEN SCT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THUS FAR...WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FM CRP TO BAFFIN BAY...BUT OVERALL CONVECTION NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS ANTICIPATED EARLIER. OUTFLOWS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED THE COASTAL BEND OUT AND THEREFORE HAVE SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS NEAR THE COAST. WILL KEEP 40-50 POPS FOR THE INTERIOR...BUT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOSTLY OVER...NOT TO SAY THERE WILL NOT STILL BE SOME GOOD DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTN. .CRP...NONE. 88/MJG...SHORT TERM 92/TR...LONG TERM tx