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National Drug Intelligence Center National Drug Threat Assessment 2007 October 2006 MarijuanaStrategic Findings
OverviewAlthough marijuana use has declined slightly, the threat associated with the drug is increasing because of the rising prevalence of high potency marijuana throughout the country and the expansion of domestic cultivation by Mexican DTOs into more areas of the country. More high potency marijuana is being produced at indoor sites in the United States, while high potency marijuana smuggling, primarily by Canada-based Asian groups, from Canada into the United States is also increasing. These Asian criminal groups are also expanding their distribution networks to control a greater portion of wholesale marijuana distribution, particularly the distribution of high potency marijuana. Moreover, improved cultivation techniques are now rendering high potency marijuana from outdoor cannabis cultivation. Rising availability of high potency marijuana has pushed average marijuana potency to its highest recorded level, elevating the threat associated with the drug: Most of the marijuana available in the domestic drug markets is lower potency commercial-grade marijuana--usually derived from outdoor cannabis grow sites in Mexico and the United States. However, an increasing, albeit unknown, percentage of the available marijuana is high potency (delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC)) marijuana derived from indoor, closely controlled cannabis cultivation in Canada and the United States. The rising prevalence of high potency marijuana is evidenced by a significant increase in average potency of tested marijuana samples, particularly since 1993 (see Figure 6). In fact, average potency of all tested samples has increased 52.4 percent (from 5.34 percent THC to 8.14 percent) just within the past 5 years. Rising prevalence of high potency marijuana is further evidenced by high seizures of Canada-produced marijuana (usually high potency marijuana) in U.S.-Canada border states since 2001 (see Figure 7), and rising eradication of indoor cannabis grow sites in the United States that typically produce high potency marijuana (see Table 4). The trend toward increased higher potency marijuana as a percentage of the marijuana available overall appears likely to continue. Most recent Government of Canada estimates indicate that production in Canada was increasing significantly and had more than doubled from 2000 through 2004, the most recent data available. Moreover, higher potency marijuana is now being produced in central California from cannabis cultivated in large outdoor sites (see text box), further contributing to an increase in higher potency marijuana availability.
Marijuana production in Mexico may be declining as production in the United States rises: Very limited data from which to accurately gauge foreign and domestic marijuana production appears to indicate a 25 percent decline in marijuana production in Mexico (see Table 5) since production peaked in 2003. In 2005 marijuana production estimates for Mexico were only slightly higher than estimates for 2001 and 2002, when a severe drought greatly reduced marijuana production in Mexico; no such conditions account for the recent decrease. During the same period, law enforcement reporting strongly suggests an expansion of domestic cannabis cultivation and marijuana production, particularly in remote areas of public lands including national Forest System lands. These reports are supported by domestic cannabis eradication data for 2005 that show the highest level of cannabis eradication ever recorded (see Table 4) at a time when significant National Guard eradication resources were curtailed because of overseas deployments and Hurricane Katrina relief. Those states where cannabis cultivation and eradication were highest in 2005 include California, Kentucky, Tennessee, Hawaii, and Washington. Nonetheless, Mexico will remain a leading source of marijuana.
Marijuana distribution by Asians DTOs is increasing: Mexican DTOs are the dominant wholesale distributors of marijuana in the United States, and other organizations such as African American, Jamaican, and Cuban DTOs also distribute wholesale quantities of the drug in various areas of the country. However, the control by Asian criminal groups--primarily Vietnamese but also Cambodian, Chinese, Hmong, Korean, Laotian, and Thai groups--over wholesale marijuana distribution has increased significantly, particularly the distribution of high potency marijuana. In fact, significant increases in marijuana distribution by Asian DTOs have been widely reported by law enforcement agencies in the Mid-Atlantic, New England, New York/New Jersey, Pacific, Southeast, and West Central Regions. Rising marijuana distribution by Asian DTOs is a particular concern because many are well-organized Canada-based groups that increasingly distribute high potency Canada-produced marijuana, as well as high potency marijuana that they produce domestically. In fact, Canada-based Asian groups are increasingly operating indoor grow sites in homes in the Pacific Northwest and California purchased or rented and then modified for the purpose of producing two to four crops before abandoning the premises. These Asian criminal groups are often very difficult to detect and investigate because they often are family-based networks operating in insular Asian communities. Mexican DTOs are expanding their domestic cannabis cultivation operations: Mexican DTOs have long been significant marijuana producers in the United States, operating large-scale outdoor cultivation operations primarily on federal lands in the western United States. However, law enforcement reporting indicates that some of these groups are expanding typical grow areas in California to new areas, primarily in the Pacific Northwest, to avoid aerial detection and increasing law enforcement pressure in California. Albeit to a much lesser extent than expansion into the Pacific Northwest, Mexican cannabis growers operating in California are also increasingly linked to Mexican cannabis growers east of the Mississippi River operating large-scale cannabis grows. Many of these groups maintain their affiliation with the larger groups in California and Mexico and maintain some level of coordination and cooperation among their various operating areas, moving labor and materials to the various sites--even across the country--as needed. Marijuana transportation across the U.S.-Canada border has increased sharply since 2001: Most foreign-source marijuana smuggled into the United States enters through or between POEs at the U.S.-Mexico border. However, drug seizure data show that the amount of marijuana--usually high potency marijuana--smuggled into the United States from Canada via the U.S.-Canada border has risen to a significant level. In fact, the quantity of marijuana seized increased 129 percent in a 5-year period from 11,546 kilograms in 2001 to 26,414 kilograms in 2005. Much of the recent increase is attributable to Asian DTOs smuggling high potency marijuana that they produce in Canada across the border into the United States, primarily at POEs in Washington. However, some Asian DTOs have shifted their smuggling operations to POEs in other states, such as Michigan and New York, to support distribution of the drug in eastern states and to enter through and between POEs where they believe there is less law enforcement pressure. Marijuana demand is declining: Rates of past year use for marijuana are higher than for any other major drug of abuse; however, casual use is stable or decreasing overall. According to NSDUH, rates of past year marijuana use declined very slightly among individuals aged 12 and older from 11 percent (25.7 million users) in 2002 to 10.6 percent (25.4 million users) in 2003 and 2004. MTF data reveal decreases in rates of past year use among most surveyed age groups--including the primary users (18 to 25)--in 2003, 2004, and 2005. Intelligence GapsOutdated or unavailable foreign marijuana production estimates limit an accurate analysis of the impact of marijuana production in several countries, particularly Canada, Colombia, and Jamaica. Limited incursion by law enforcement into Asian DTOs because of the insular nature of the communities in which they are based degrades accurate analysis as to the full extent of their operations in the United States. |
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