ne-agri-facts NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS Issued Twice Monthly by: NEBRASKA Agricultural Statistics Service P.O. Box 81069 Location: 273 Federal Bldg Lincoln, NE 68501 Phone: (402) 437-5541 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Nebraska Department of Agriculture USDA,National Ag Statistics Service Merlyn Carlson, Director David G. Loos, State Statistician ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Issue 22/2000 Released: 11/16/2000 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NEBRASKA NOVEMBER CROP REPORT HIGHLIGHTS Nebraska's corn production, as of November 1, is forecast at 1.01 billion bushels, down 2% from the October forecast. Production, if realized, would be 13% below last year, and 19% below the record 1.24 billion bushels produced in 1998. Acreage harvested for grain, at 8.05 million acres, is unchanged from last month but down 3% from last year. Yield, is forecast at 125 bushels per acre, down 2 bushels from last month, 14 bushels below last year and the lowest since the 1995 average of 111 bushels per acre. Lower than expected yields were noted in a number of regions, in part due to grain moisture levels at harvest that were often below the industry standard. By the end of October, harvest was 95% complete, 18 days ahead of average. Soybean production is forecast at 170.2 million bushels, unchanged from last month but 6% below the record high set last year. Acreage for harvest at 4.6 million acres is unchanged from October and is a record high. Yield forecast at 37 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month, but down 5.5 bushels from last year. Sorghum grain production is forecast at 34.3 million bushels, up 4% from the October forecast, but still 20% below the 1999 crop. Acreage for grain harvest remained unchanged at 470,000 acres, and the same as last year. Yield, at 73 bushels per acre, is up 3 bushels from last month, but 18 bushels below last year. Sugar beet production of 1,183,000 tons is down 6% from the 1999 crop. Potato production forecast at 10,374 million hundredweight (cwt.), is down 1% from last year. Harvested acreage is expected to total 24,700 acres, down 1,000 acres from last year. Yield, at a record high 420 cwt. per acre, is 11 cwt. above the previous high set last year. U.S. NOVEMBER CROP REPORT HIGHLIGHTS Corn for grain production is forecast at 10.1 billion bushels, down 1% from last month, but up 7% from 1999. Yields are expected to average 137.7 bushels per acre, down 1.9 bushels from last month, but up 3.9 bushels from a year ago. If realized, this would be the largest production and second largest yield on record. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 73.0 million acres, unchanged from last month. Soybean production is forecast at record high 2.78 billion bushels, down 2% from October 1, but 5% above 1999. The yield forecast, at 38.0 bushels per acre, decreased 0.7 bushel from last month, but is 1.4 bushels above the 1999 final yield. Acreage for harvest is estimated at a record 73.0 million acres, unchanged from October 1, but up 1% from 1999. Sorghum grain production is forecast at 463 million bushels, down less than 1% from the October forecast and 22% below the 1999 total. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from October at 7.67 million acres, but down 10% from the previous year. The U.S. yield is forecast at 60.4 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from last month and 9.3 bushels below 1999. Sugar beet production is forecast at 33.0 million tons from just under 1.40 million acres. Total U.S. potato production in 2000 hit a record high 509 million cwt., up 7% from last year and 2% above the previous high in 1996. Harvested acreage, at 1.35 million acres, was up 2% from last year. Yields were up 17 cwt. from 1999. CORN AND SOYBEAN YIELD AND PRODUCTION, SELECTED STATES, 1999-2000 CORN SOYBEANS Yield per Acre Production Yield per Acre Production State 2000 2000 1999 Oct.1 Nov.1 1999 2000 1999 Oct.1 Nov.1 1999 2000 Bushels 1,000 bushels Bushels 1,000 bushels Illinois 140.0 155.0 153.0 1,491,000 1,690,650 42.0 46.0 44.0 443,100 451,000 Indiana 132.0 151.0 147.0 748,440 815,850 39.0 46.0 46.0 216,450 260,360 Iowa 149.0 148.0 146.0 1,758,200 1,752,000 44.5 44.0 43.0 478,375 453,650 Kansas 141.0 128.0 128.0 420,180 416,000 29.0 22.0 21.0 81,200 56,700 Minnesota 150.0 152.0 148.0 990,000 976,800 42.0 41.0 41.0 289,800 291,100 Missouri 97.0 144.0 145.0 247,350 413,250 27.5 37.0 36.0 147,125 183,600 NEBRASKA 139.0 127.0 125.0 1,153,700 1,006,250 42.5 37.0 37.0 180,625 170,200 Ohio 126.0 152.0 149.0 403,200 491,700 36.0 43.0 44.0 162,000 193,160 So.Dakota 113.0 108.0 108.0 367,250 426,600 36.0 35.0 34.0 146,520 144,500 U.S. 133.8 139.6 137.7 9,437,337 10,053,942 36.6 38.7 38.02,653,758 2,777,036 NOVEMBER 1, 1999 ESTIMATES AND COMPARATIVE DATA NEBRASKA AND THE UNITED STATES NEBRASKA UNITED STATES Classification 1998 1999 2000 1/ 1998 1999 2000 1/ Corn for Grain: For harvest 1,000 Acres 8,550 8,300 8,050 72,589 70,537 73,009 Yield Bushels *145.0 139.0 125.0 134.4 133.8 137.7 Production 1,000 Bushels *1,239,750 1,153,700 1,006,250 9,758,6859,437,337 10,053,942 Corn for Grain, Irrigated: For harvest 1,000 Acres 5,250 4,800 4,750 --- --- --- Yield Bushels *161.3 159.4 154.9 --- --- --- Production 1,000 Bushels 847,050 765,200 735,650 --- --- --- Corn for Grain, Not Irrigated: For harvest 1,000 Acres 3,300 3,500 3,300 --- --- --- Yield Bushels *119.0 111.0 82.0 --- --- --- Production 1,000 Bushels *392,700 388,500 270,600 --- --- --- Soybeans for Beans: For harvest 1,000 Acres 3,750 4,250 *4,600 70,441 72,446 73,024 Yield Bushels 44.0 42.5 37.0 38.9 36.6 38.0 Production 1,000 Bushels 165,000 *180,625 170,200 2,741,0142,653,758 2,777,036 Sorghum for Grain: For harvest 1,000 Acres 600 470 470 7,723 8,544 7,665 Yield Bushels 94.0 91.0 73.0 67.3 69.7 60.4 Production 1,000 Bushels 56,400 42,770 34,310 519,933 595,166 463,251 Alfalfa Hay: For harvest 1,000 Acres 1,400 1,400 1,350 23,672 23,985 23,767 Yield Tons *3.75 3.70 3.00 3.48 3.50 3.32 Production 1,000 Tons 5,250 5,180 4,050 82,310 83,924 78,796 All Hay: For harvest 1,000 Acres 3,200 3,200 3,100 60,076 63,160 62,191 Yield Tons *2.40 2.38 1.87 2.53 2.52 2.46 Production 1,000 Tons 7,680 7,610 5,800 151,780 159,077 153,255 Potatoes: For harvest 1,000 Acres 26.2 25.7 24.7 1,387.7 1,332.6 1,353.8 Yield Cwt. 373 409 420 343 359 376 Production 1,000 Cwt. 9,781 10,524 10,374 475,771 478,398 509,358 Beans, Dry Edible: For harvest 1,000 Acres 188.0 187.0 160.0 1,917.7 1,877.0 1,508.6 Yield Pounds 1,950 2,000 1,900 1,586 1,770 1,630 Production 1,000 Cwt. 3,666 3,740 3,040 30,418 33,230 25,764 Sugar Beets: For harvest 1,000 Acres 47.4 66.2 58.3 1,450.7 1,527.3 1,397.7 Yield Tons 19.7 19.0 20.3 22.4 21.9 23.6 Production 1,000 Tons 934 1,258 1,183 32,499 33,420 32,951 1/ Forecasted. * Record. U.S. GRAINS SUPPLY AND DISAPPEARANCE OUTLOOK MARKET YEAR DISAPPEARANCE 1/* --------SUPPLY------------ Market Average Begin- ---Domestic-- Year Average CROP Pro ning Im- Primary Ex- Ending market YEAR duction stocks ports Total Use 2/ Other ports Total Stocks* Price Million bushels $/bu. CORN: 1998/99 9,759 1,308 19 11,085 5,471 1,846 1,981 9,298 1,787 1.94 1999/00 9,437 1,787 15 11,239 5,673 1,913 1,937 9,524 1,715 1.80 2000/01 10,054 1,715 10 11,779 5,850 1,975 2,275 10,100 1,679 1.70-2.10 SOYBEANS: 1998/99 2,741 200 3 2,944 1,590 201 805 2,595 348 4.93 1999/00 2,654 348 4 3,006 1,579 167 973 2,719 288 4.65 2000/01 2,777 288 3 3,068 1,600 167 950 2,717 350 4.40-5.00 WHEAT: 1998/99 2,547 722 103 3,373 910 475 1,042 2,427 946 2.65 1999/00 2,299 946 95 3,339 925 376 1,090 2,390 950 2.48 2000/01 2,223 950 95 3,268 940 336 1,100 2,376 892 2.45-2.75 SORGHUM: 1998/99 520 49 0 569 262 45 197 504 65 1.66 1999/00 595 65 0 660 284 55 256 595 65 1.55 2000/01 463 65 0 529 230 50 200 480 49 1.55-1.95 * Projections for 1999 and 2000 crops are USDA's World Outlook Board expectations of supply and disappearance as of November 9, 2000. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year begins: Corn, Sorghum & Soybeans, September 1; Wheat, June 1. 2/ Primary uses: Corn & Sorghum = Feed; Soybeans = Crushing; Wheat = Food. NEBRASKA -- ACREAGE, YIELD AND PRODUCTION BY DISTRICT, 1999-2000 CORN FOR GRAIN 1/ Yield per Ac. Planted Ac. Harvested Harv. Acre Production Dist 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1,000 acres Bushels 1,000 bushels NW 350.0 385.0 321.0 350.0 126.0 119.0 40,455.8 41,650.0 N 370.0 350.0 342.0 320.0 141.2 130.0 48,292.8 41,600.0 NE 1,540.0 1,535.0 1,473.5 1,465.0 130.0 116.0 191,560.4 169,940.0 C 1,150.0 1,120.0 1,106.0 1,070.0 148.4 126.0 164,157.7 134,820.0 E 2,085.0 2,025.0 2,039.0 1,965.0 140.8 126.8 287,106.1 249,195.0 SW 960.0 980.0 925.5 935.0 140.7 135.0 130,237.6 126,225.0 S 985.0 885.0 965.0 860.0 147.9 136.0 142,716.6 116,960.0 SE 1,160.0 1,120.0 1,128.0 1,085.0 132.2 116.0 149,173.0 125,860.0 NB 8,600.0 8,400.0 8,300.0 8,050.0 139.0 125.0 1,153,700.0 1,006,250.0 SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 1/ Yield per Ac. Planted Ac. Harvested Harv. Acre Production Dist 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1,000 acres Bushels 1,000 bushels NW 2.0 5.0 1.0 4.0 32.5 30.0 32.5 120.0 N 150.0 165.0 148.0 161.0 48.6 43.0 7,200.0 6,923.0 NE 1,175.0 1,210.0 1,160.0 1,195.0 39.3 37.0 45,600.0 44,215.0 C 234.0 285.0 232.0 270.0 47.3 38.0 10,980.0 10,260.0 E 1,403.0 1,500.0 1,390.0 1,470.0 43.9 37.1 61,057.5 54,507.0 SW 58.0 85.0 55.0 80.0 48.3 43.0 2,655.0 3,440.0 S 292.0 405.0 289.0 395.0 51.9 48.0 15,000.0 18,960.0 SE 986.0 1,045.0 975.0 1,025.0 39.1 31.0 38,100.0 31,775.0 NB 4,300.0 4,700.0 4,250.0 4,600.0 42.5 37.0 180,625.0 170,200.0 SORGHUM FOR GRAIN 1/ Yield per Ac. Planted Ac. Harvested Harv. Acre Production Dist 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1,000 acres Bushels 1,000 bushels NW 11.0 9.0 2.4 2.0 55.0 40.0 132.0 80.0 N 6.3 8.0 1.7 3.0 73.5 65.0 125.0 195.0 NE 9.7 12.0 1.5 2.0 68.3 70.0 102.5 140.0 C 16.5 20.0 4.9 6.0 72.7 60.0 356.0 360..0 E 62.5 63.0 58.3 60.0 93.5 87.0 5,453.9 5,220.0 SW 48.0 30.0 30.2 17.0 84.6 52.0 2,553.6 884.0 S 79.0 85.0 68.0 75.0 98.4 71.0 6,689.0 5,325.0 SE 317.0 323.0 303.0 305.0 90.3 72.5 27,358.0 22,106.0 NB 550.0 550.0 470.0 470.0 91.0 73.0 42,770.0 34,310.0 1/ Preliminary estimates 1999 and forecast as of November 1, 2000. NOTE: Planted acres are for all purposes SORGHUM FOR GRAIN YIELD & PRODUCTION SELECTED STATES & U.S., 1999-2000 Yield/Acre Production 1999 -------2000-------- 1999 2000* State Oct. 1 Nov. 1 Bushels 1,000 bushels Ark. 78.0 69.0 72.0 9,750 10,080 Colo. 42.0 32.0 30.0 8,610 5,700 Ill. 95.0 106.0 105.0 9,215 8,925 Kans. 76.0 57.0 57.0 258,400 176,700 La. 82.0 82.0 82.0 19,270 16,810 Mo. 71.0 95.0 94.0 22,010 25,380 NEBR. 91.0 70.0 73.0 42,770 34,310 N. Mex. 55.0 30.0 25.0 7,425 1,500 Okla. 45.0 43.0 41.0 18,000 14,350 S. Dak. 58.0 46.0 51.0 4,640 5,100 Texas 63.0 61.0 60.0 185,850 150,000 U.S. 69.7 60.7 60.4 595,166 463,251 *Forecasted November 1. MILK PRODUCTION Milk production in the 20 major states during October totaled 11.9 billion pounds, up 2.9% from production in these same States in October 1999. September revised production, at 11.5 billion pounds was up 2.7% from September 1999. The September revision represented an decrease of 0.1% or 15 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,514 pounds for October, 23 pounds above October 1999. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.85 million head, 105,000 head more than October 1999 and 2,000 head more than September. U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS, BY LEADING STATES: ESTIMATED VALUE BY COMMODITY GROUP, FY 1999 Commodity United Leading 10 States, by value Group States 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Million dollars Cal. Iowa Neb. Kan. Ill. Tex. Minn. Wash. Ind. Wis. Total 49,102.1 6,931.7 3,151.5 2,883.02,823.7 2,750.6 2,512.4 2,184.71,778.5 1,429.5 1,261.3 Feed grains Iowa Ill. NEBR. Minn. Kans. Ind. Ohio S.Dak. Wis. Tex. and products 6,805.6 1,165.3 978.0 871.5 689.6 532.8 500.6 310.5 295.7 268.7 225.3 Soybeans and Iowa Ill. Minn. Ind. Ohio Mo. NEBR. S.Dak. Ark. Kans. products 6,530.3 1,185.3 1,107.5 681.4 551.1 460.9 405.6 393.7 316.4 202.8 178.9 Live animals Neb. Kan. Tex. Iowa Colo. Ill. Ky. Minn. Wis. Cal. and meat 5,334.5 847.1 761.7 736.7 496.0 263.7 229.9 212.6 184.9 180.8 170.9 Vegetables Cal. Wash. Ind. Wis. Minn. Ore. Mich. N.Dak. Fla. Colo. and preps. 4,245.2 1,908.4 489.5 322.7 239.4 204.4 159.2 132.7 130.0 112.3 94.6 Wheat and Kan. Okla. N.Dak. Wash. Tex. Ohio Mont. Mo. Ill. Ind. products 3,930.7 805.5 282.9 279.7 255.3 209.1 194.1 163.2 146.9 144.6 142.4 Fruit and Cal. Fla. Wash. Ore. Mich. N.Y. Haw. Tex. Ariz. Penn. preps. 3,282.0 1,535.9 611.1 569.7 120.3 91.5 59.1 54.3 51.9 49.6 24.1 Poultry and Ga. Ark. N.C. Ala. Miss. Tex. Cal. Mo. Va. Del. products 2,056.1 278.5 277.7 216.4 207.7 157.5 111.8 103.7 77.9 76.7 61.5 Feeds and NEBR. Tex. Kan. Iowa Minn. Ill. Colo. Wis. N.Dak. Mo. fodders 1,673.4 236.2 189.1 186.2 112.1 94.0 85.5 64.7 59.7 51.2 49.1 Tobacco, un- N.C. Ky. Va. S.C. Ga. Tenn. Conn. Ma. Penn. Fla. manufactured 1,375.5 521.7 324.7 91.8 87.7 86.2 84.6 84.4 20.1 17.4 16.6 Cotton and Tex. Cal. Ga. Miss. Ark. N.C. Ariz. La. Ala. Tenn. linters 1,323.4 336.7 194.7 138.5 129.7 108.6 92.1 61.2 57.6 49.7 49.0 Hides and NEBR. Kans. Tex. Wis. Colo. Iowa Utah Ill. Minn. Wash. skins 1,108.5 204.3 200.2 174.2 74.8 69.6 40.2 40.1 32.9 32.1 30.8 Cal. Ga. Ore. N.M. Tex. Haw. La. Ala. N.C. Okla. Tree nuts 1,074.8 987.8 16.7 15.9 13.4 12.6 7.8 6.7 2.1 1.0 0.8 Ark. Cal. La. Tex. Miss. Mo. Rice 1,014.9 465.7 199.2 147.1 82.8 81.2 38.9 na na na na Dairy Wis. Cal. Minn. Penn. N.Y. Ida. Wash. Iowa Ohio Mo. products 897.5 210.0 170.6 73.2 50.8 48.1 47.6 31.9 28.1 24.6 19.5 Cal. Ore. Iowa Ill. NEBR. N.Dak. Fla. Minn. Ariz. Kans. Seeds 799.7 168.7 141.2 43.5 37.4 36.2 32.4 31.8 31.0 27.4 26.0 Animal NEBR. Kans Tex. Colo. Iowa Wis. Ill. Cal. Penn. Minn. fats 561.1 113.5 109.5 94.6 35.9 27.8 25.6 19.6 16.4 15.9 14.8 Sunflowerseeds N.Dak. S.Dak. Kans. Colo. Minn. NEBR. Tex. and oil 330.4 188.1 95.3 16.9 12.6 10.4 5.1 1.9 na na na Peanuts and Ga. Tex. Ala. N.C. Fla. Va. Okla. N.M. S.C. products 222.0 81.4 53.0 27.1 16.7 15.1 12.5 11.3 3.4 1.5 na Cottonseed Tex. Miss. Cal. Ga. Ark. N.C. Ariz. La. Tenn. Ala. and prods. 61.8 18.0 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.5 4.0 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.2 Cal. Wash. La. Fla. Tex. Ga. Ore. N.J. Ky. Ill. Other 6,474.7 1,332.5 209.6 200.7 193.3 121.2 117.8 112.2 90.6 74.8 74.0 na = not applicable. Source: FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL TRADE OF THE UNITED STATES, ERS, 2000.