FXUS63 KFGF 290830
AFDFAR

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
325 AM CDT MON APR 29 2003

...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPTATION CHANCES ACROSS THE 
EXTREME SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES...

.CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...
KABR AND KBIS RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW BAND OF WEAK SHOWERS TRYING TO 
ENTER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. SOME SIGNS AREA IS TRYING TO 
SATURATE...HOWEVER BEST SATURATION REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH 
DAKOTA AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA(FA). SEVERAL PIECES OF 
SHRTWV ENERGY BREAKING OFF OF PARENT WAVE LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC 
COAST. 

.TODAY-THURS...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS MORNING IS IF NEED TO EXTEND ISOLATED RAIN 
SHOWER MENTION ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. STILL APPEARS THAT ENOUGH 
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN PLACE TO KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE 
GROUND. AREAL COVERAGE OF BAND IS SHRINKING AS WELL AND BECOMING 
MORE CONFINED TO NE SOUTH DAKOTA. WEAK 295 K ISENTROPIC LIFT 
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BAND BECOMES NEUTRAL BY MID MORNING. META 
SOUNDINGS ACROSS AREA DO HINT AT BRIEF SATURATION AROUND 12Z AND 
WITH CHANCE OF LEFT OVER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA MAY CLIP 
REGION...WILL EXTEND ISOLATED MENTION INTO THE MORNING. WITH LOWER 
850MB TEMPS AND A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF 
THE FA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD 
AS REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND AM SIDING 
WITH THE ETA. ANY MOISTURE THAT IS AVAILABLE WILL LIKELY BE ROBBED 
BY BIG THUNDER SOUTH OF REGION. WILL BEGIN TO TREND POPS DOWN BUT 
WILL NOT TAKE OUT YET. CANADIAN...THOUGH WAY OVERDONE IN PAST EVENTS 
AND IS AGAIN TODAY...IS TRYING TO PUT AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIP ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. 


NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE EXTENDED
 
.FGF...NONE.

$$

DONAVON