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HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUN 24 1998
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BLAS HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER DEEPENING
PHASE THIS EVENING WITH THE EYE BECOMING MORE WELL-DEFINED AND
COLDER SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS...-80C. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS
HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 6.0.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB CONCUR. THUS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FOR THIS PACKAGE
IS INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS. WITH WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
WARM WATERS BENEATH BLAS SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE SYSTEM WILL
ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR.
 
SATELLITE ANIMATION OVER THE LAST 6-12 HOURS SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST
HEADING...NOTWITHSTANDING SOME TYPICAL EYE WOBBLES.  THE INITIAL
ESTIMATED MOTION IS 295/10 KNOTS...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  THE MID-TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EAST PACIFIC SHOULD KEEP BLAS ON A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS REFLECT THIS MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL...DEEP LAYER BAM AND NHC91.
 
GUINEY/MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 15.0N 106.5W   115 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 15.6N 108.0W   115 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N 110.0W   100 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 17.3N 112.3W    90 KTS
48HR VT     27/0000Z 18.0N 115.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N 120.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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