Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 08/14/07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
917 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007 .UPDATE... A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH AND WEST ARKANSAS. MOST HAVE DISSIPATED AT THIS TIME. ADJUSTED CLOUD GRIDS AS AN AREA OF CLOUDS MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. WILL KEEP SOUTH SECTIONS PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007/ AVIATION... AGAIN...CONVECTION IS ISOLATED AND IT WILL BE ENDING SOON AFTER DARK. THE NIGHT TIME INVERSION WILL SET IN...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME CALM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. EXPECTED VISIBILITY TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED FOR THE MOST PART. SOME HAZE MAY COME INTO THE PICTURE...BUT IT WILL NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTION TO AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A STRONGHOLD OF ARKANSAS WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL YIELD HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH DAY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.(38) LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE H5 RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE 850 MB RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE SERN US. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE STATE OF ARKANSAS TO AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE...COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF INTRODUCING POPS ON FRIDAY. ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY. VARIOUS MODELS HAVE ALTERNATED BETWEEN MOVING A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE INTO THE SERN US TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FULL BLOWN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF. THE LAST SEVERAL GFS RUNS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WHICH THE NHC IS NOW ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS ALSO ALTERNATED BETWEEN TAKING THIS SYSTEM INTO THE GULF OR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS IT DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 53 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 74 103 75 103 / 10 0 0 0 CAMDEN AR 74 102 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 HARRISON AR 71 100 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 HOT SPRINGS AR 77 105 77 105 / 10 0 0 0 LITTLE ROCK AR 79 105 78 106 / 10 0 0 0 MONTICELLO AR 72 103 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 MOUNT IDA AR 76 103 74 103 / 10 0 0 0 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 72 103 73 104 / 0 0 0 0 NEWPORT AR 75 103 75 103 / 10 0 0 0 PINE BLUFF AR 74 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 104 76 105 / 10 0 0 0 SEARCY AR 78 104 74 104 / 10 0 0 0 STUTTGART AR 77 104 73 104 / 10 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE- BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA- DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD- JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE- MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI- SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL. && $$ 51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
623 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007 .AVIATION... AGAIN...CONVECTION IS ISOLATED AND IT WILL BE ENDING SOON AFTER DARK. THE NIGHT TIME INVERSION WILL SET IN...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME CALM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. EXPECTED VISIBILITY TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED FOR THE MOST PART. SOME HAZE MAY COME INTO THE PICTURE...BUT IT WILL NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTION TO AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A STRONGHOLD OF ARKANSAS WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL YIELD HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH DAY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.(38) LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE H5 RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE 850 MB RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE SERN US. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE STATE OF ARKANSAS TO AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE...COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF INTRODUCING POPS ON FRIDAY. ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY. VARIOUS MODELS HAVE ALTERNATED BETWEEN MOVING A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE INTO THE SERN US TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FULL BLOWN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF. THE LAST SEVERAL GFS RUNS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WHICH THE NHC IS NOW ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS ALSO ALTERNATED BETWEEN TAKING THIS SYSTEM INTO THE GULF OR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS IT DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 53 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 74 103 75 103 / 10 0 0 0 CAMDEN AR 74 102 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 HARRISON AR 71 100 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 HOT SPRINGS AR 77 105 77 105 / 10 0 0 0 LITTLE ROCK AR 79 105 78 106 / 10 0 0 0 MONTICELLO AR 72 103 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 MOUNT IDA AR 76 103 74 103 / 10 0 0 0 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 72 103 73 104 / 0 0 0 0 NEWPORT AR 75 103 75 103 / 10 0 0 0 PINE BLUFF AR 74 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 104 76 105 / 10 0 0 0 SEARCY AR 78 104 74 104 / 10 0 0 0 STUTTGART AR 77 104 73 104 / 10 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE- BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA- DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD- JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE- MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI- SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL. && $$ AVIATION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PDT SUN AUG 12 2007 .SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHRINK THE MARINE LAYER AND BRING WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK. SLOW DRYING AND COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF MARINE STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EVEN THOUGH THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THAT CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED ALOFT...VERY LITTLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOPS THROUGH 20Z. ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE WEAKENED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY AND TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING BETWEEN 4 AND 9 DEGREES ABOVE VALUES OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT 20Z...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST. THE THINNER MARINE LAYER AND WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS...HAVE ALLOWED INLAND AREAS TO WARM CONSIDERABLY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO MON...WITH SEASONALLY WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO MIDWEEK. ADDED MOISTURE SHOULD HELP BUILD MORE AFTERNOON CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL... SO STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...EVEN THOUGH AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ENOUGH HEATING. THE STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IT EXPANDS...EXPECT WARMER DAYS THROUGH TUE. INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS BEGINNING ABOUT TUE...AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THU. BY MID WEEK THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. AS HEIGHTS/ THICKNESS FALL OVER THE AREA...EXPECT AFTERNOONS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WILL STICK WITH THE DRYING AND SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR NOW. && .AVIATION... 122020Z...ACARS SHOWED THE BASE OF THE MARINE INVERSION DOWN TO AROUND 900 FEET MSL. STRATUS WILL HAVE LESS AREAL COVERAGE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BASES IN THE 700-900 FOOT RANGE WITH TOPS JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET HIGHER. TIMING OF THE STRATUS RETURNING TO THE COAST WILL BE IN THE 03Z-06Z RANGE IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND 06Z-09Z RANGE IN ORANGE COUNTY AND WILL ONLY SPREAD ABOUT 10 MILES INLAND. LOCAL VSBYS SHOULD DROP TO UNDER 1 MILE OVER TERRAIN ABOVE 500 FEET IN COASTAL AREAS. CLEARING SHOULD BE EARLY MONDAY...MOSTLY BEFORE 17Z. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...JUST A FEW CLOUDS BETWEEN 15000 AND 25000 FEET ARE EXPECTED WITH VFR VSBYS CONTINUING. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...JAD AVIATION...MAXWELL
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PDT SUN AUG 12 2007 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK CURRENTLY THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS FIELDS ARE PATCHY AND BURN OFF WILL CONTINUE. WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREAS. BOTH NAM-WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS PUSH 599 DECAMETER 500 MB HEIGHTS INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. UKMET AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE EFFECTS OF THE BUILDING AND STRENGTHENING RIDGE...BUT BASED ON PRIOR THOUGHTS FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY...DOMESTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY BE THE BETTER SOLUTIONS. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALL SEE INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE LAYER...AREAS SHOULD SEE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3-5 DEGREES WARM UP EACH DAY. NEAR THE COASTS AND WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER...WARMING WILL BE MODERATED SOME WITH MOST AREAS SEEING ONLY 1-3 DEGREES EACH DAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD VERY WELL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH PUSHING WESTWARD TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BE THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR WARMING TREND. THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD HINDER WARMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAN GABRIEL AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...SAN GABRIEL RANGE COULD PRODUCE SOME TERRAIN-INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS 850 AND 700 MB MIXING RATIO APPEARS TO BE HIGH ENOUGH. *** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION *** .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...A LITTLE COOLING FORECAST WEDNESDAY HARD TO SEE WHY THROUGH WITH 591 HGTS OVERHEAD. PERHAPS MDLS SEEING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE MONSOON PUSH. KEPT TEMPS FAIRLY WARM. THIS IS THE BEST MONSOON CHANCE. STILL NOT VERY CONVINCED ABOUT TSTMS CHCS AND ONLY BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE KEEPING THEM JUST BELOW THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY THRESHOLDS. TROFING AND SW FLOW COME INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ELIMINATE MONSOON MOISTURE...INCREASE MARINE LAYER... INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW...COOL THE INLAND AREAS. WITH LOWER HEIGHTS && .AVIATION...12/1000Z LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR KLAX NEAR 1000 FT DP THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DUE TO STRONGER NORTHERLY SFC GRADIENTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY. SOME IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS COULD POP UP NEAR KLAX AND KLGB NEAR SUNRISE BUT NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. N OF POINT CONCEPTION...PATCHY LIFR STRATUS OVER KSMX AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SOME EARLY MORNING LIFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AT KSBP. EXPECT CLEARING BY 18Z IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH VFR CONDS. KLAX...EXPECT PATCHY IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS BY SUNRISE WITH MVFR/VFR VSBYS THROUGH 17Z...THEN BECOMING VFR BY 19Z. TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO 12 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ONLY PATCHY STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT. KBUR...EXPECT VFR CONDS TODAY WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND REGIME. $$ .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...HALL AVIATION...KAPLAN WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
825 AM PDT SUN AUG 12 2007 .SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHRINK THE MARINE LAYER AND BRING WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK. SLOW DRYING AND COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... EXTENT OF STRATUS CONSIDERABLY LESS THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE MARINE LAYER DOWN FROM NEAR 2K FT TO ABOUT 1400 FEET. SKIES SHOULD AGAIN BE SUNNY AT THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A BIT WEAKER. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED OVER YESTERDAY ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED AND COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE MARINE LAYER THINNER...AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS...IT SHOULD BE HOTTER INLAND TODAY. THE ADDED MOISTURE SHOULD HELP BUILD MORE AFTERNOON CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...SO STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...EVEN THOUGH AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IT EXPANDS...EXPECT WARMER DAYS THROUGH TUE. INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS BEGINNING ABOUT TUE...AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THU. BY MID WEEK THE UPPER HIGH ID FORECAST TO WEAKEN. AS HEIGHTS/ THICKNESS FALL OVER THE AREA...EXPECT AFTERNOONS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WILL STICK WITH THE DRYING AND COOLING TREND FOR NOW. && .AVIATION... 121515Z...MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO SHRINK WITH THE INVERSION BASE AROUND 1100 FEET MSL BASED ON LATEST ACARS. EXPECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TO CLEAR BY 17Z...THOUGH SCATTERED STRATUS COULD LINGER ALONG THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST IN THE 03Z-06Z RANGE IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND 06Z-09Z RANGE IN ORANGE COUNTY. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1000 FEET MSL WITH TOPS TO 1500 FEET...AND MOST VALLEYS WILL STAY CLEAR ALL NIGHT. LOCAL VSBYS SHOULD DROP TO UNDER 1 MILE OVER TERRAIN ABOVE 700 FEET IN COASTAL AREAS. CLEARING SHOULD BE EARLY MONDAY...MOSTLY BY 17Z. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...JUST A FEW CLOUDS BETWEEN 15000 AND 25000 FEET ARE EXPECTED WITH VFR VSBYS CONTINUING. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...JAD AVIATION...MAXWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
320 AM PDT SUN AUG 12 2007 .SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHRINK THE MARINE LAYER AND BRING WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SLOW DRYING AND COOLING LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA PEAKING ON MONDAY AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY SHRINKING IN DEPTH. SATURDAY EVENING ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MARINE INVERSION HAD LOWERED TO AROUND 1600 FEET WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE STRATUS SLOWER TO MOVE INLAND THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. STRATUS MAY GRADUALLY EXTEND INLAND INTO THE LOWER COASTAL VALLEYS THROUGH SUNRISE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WAS ONLY SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GFS SHOWS PW`S NO HIGHER TODAY...THEN SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK. POPS SHOW A SLOW INCREASING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING SLOW COOLING AND DRYING LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION... 121000Z...1500 FOOT MARINE LAYER BEING HELD MOSTLY OFFSHORE THIS EARLY MORNING BY UPPER HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING IN FROM THE EAST. STILL EXPECT A LAST MINUTE WEAK SURGE INLAND BY SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY EARLY CLEARING BACK TO COAST BY 16Z. MOSTLY SUNNY AND VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z. LOWER INVERSION AND LESS STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS AGAIN REMAINING OFFSHORE. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MARTIN AVIATION/MARINE...MACKECHNIE NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 AM PDT SUN AUG 12 2007 .SHORT TERM... A NORTH PUSH AND LITTLE OR NO EDDY HAD RESULTED IN A SPARSE MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF SBA COUNTY AND SOUTHERN L.A. COUNTY AND THAT ABOUT IT. LOTS OF SUN AND WARMING TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMING EVERYWHERE TODAY AND MAYBE 3 TO 4 DEGREES INLAND. A LITTLE BETTER EDDY TONIGHT SO A FEW MORE CLOUDS BUT NOTHING INTO THE VLYS AND PROBABLY NOTHING IN SBA SOUTH COAST. SOME VALLEY LOWS WILL BE RATHER HIGH WITH A STRONG INVERSION SETTING UP. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER YET WITH BL TEMPS NEAR 28 FORECAST BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH IF TRUE WILL BE AS WARM AS IT HAS EVER BEEN SINCE 1999. TRIPLE FIGURES INLAND AND WARMEST VALLEYS. HAVE TO WATCH THE GRADIENTS AS ANY OFFSHORE PUSH WILL ALLOW A MAJOR COASTAL WARM UP. STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP SOME LOWS IN THE 70S RIGHT AT THE PEAK OF THE INVERSION AROUND 1200 OR SO FEET. MARINE LAYER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST. THINK THE STRENGTH OF THE AUGUST SUN WILL ALLOW TOTAL BURN OFF DESPITE THE VERY STRONG INVERSION. CONTINUED VERY WARM TUESDAY. BOOSTED TEMPS UP TO NEAR MONDAY VALUES. GUIDANCE IS GOING EVEN HOTTER INLAND AND A FEW MDL SOLN SUGGEST A WARM COASTAL EVENT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS DAY IT IS GOING TO HOT BUT IT COULD TURN INTO A VERY HOT DAY. MONSOON APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY BUT MDLS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE MAIN TSTM THREAT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. .LONG TERM... A LITTLE COOLING FORECAST WEDNESDAY HARD TO SEE WHY THROUGH WITH 591 HGTS OVERHEAD. PERHAPS MDLS SEEING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE MONSOON PUSH. KEPT TEMPS FAIRLY WARM. THIS IS THE BEST MONSOON CHANCE. STILL NOT VERY CONVINCED ABOUT TSTMS CHCS AND ONLY BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE KEEPING THEM JUST BELOW THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY THRESHOLDS. TROFING AND SW FLOW COME INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ELIMINATE MONSOON MOISTURE...INCREASE MARINE LAYER... INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW...COOL THE INLAND AREAS. WITH LOWER HEIGHTS && .AVIATION... 12/1000Z LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR KLAX NEAR 1000 FT DP THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DUE TO STRONGER NORTHERLY SFC GRADIENTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY. SOME IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS COULD POP UP NEAR KLAX AND KLGB NEAR SUNRISE BUT NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. N OF POINT CONCEPTION...PATCHY LIFR STRATUS OVER KSMX AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SOME EARLY MORNING LIFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AT KSBP. EXPECT CLEARING BY 18Z IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH VFR CONDS. KLAX...EXPECT PATCHY IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS BY SUNRISE WITH MVFR/VFR VSBYS THROUGH 17Z...THEN BECOMING VFR BY 19Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ONLY PATCHY STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT. KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU FORECAST. $$ .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...RORKE AVIATION...KAPLAN WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS UPTON NY
324 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY...AND PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER...BUT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY ALLOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA...AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. LEANED TOWARD FWC/MET TEMP FORECASTS. TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD WITH MIXING TO H8 AND TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 9C. THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH DURING THE AFTN TO ALLOW FOR LATE DAY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... FLAT UPPER FLOW WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS TIME FRAME. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. SREF PROB OF CAPE AT LEAST 500 J/KG INCREASES A BIT WEDNESDAY...AND FRONT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM...MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. SLIGHT CHC POPS SHOULD COVER THIS...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED...AND COULD PREVENT CONVECTION. AS FOR TEMPS...AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...WAA OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND H8 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 15C. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...NEAR 90 FOR THE NORMALLY WARMEST SPOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MAV NUMBERS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS WEAK HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...AND STRONGER COLD FRONT...ADVERTISED FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW...WILL QUICKLY APPROACH BY LATE IN THE DAY. TIMING OF THIS FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PROB OF MEASURABLE QPF FROM ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS STILL THE GREATEST WITH THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE MUCH GREATER SUPPORT THAN PREVIOUS FRONTS AS LARGE POLAR VORTEX SETTLES IN CENTRAL CANADA...AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM SLOWER IN FRONTAL MOVEMENT AS COMPARED TO GFS AND ECMWF. FAVOR THE FASTER MOVEMENT ATTM WITH SUFFICIENT UPPER STEERING. THIS WOULD LIMIT PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BULK MOVING OUT TO THE EAST. 12Z/13 ECMWF/GFS NOW SHOW FRONT SAGGING FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE TROUGH WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH PUSH TO DROP FRONT THROUGH MID ATLANTIC. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. POSSIBLY SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL GO WITH "HIDDEN" SLIGHT CHANCES FOR BOTH DAYS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER TODAY WITH 100 MILE VISIBILITY. SMOOTH FOR GA BELOW 050. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 060 PRODUCES LIGHT TURBC FOR SMALL AIRCRAFT. NYC METRO...REAL QUESTION IS SEA BREEZE DEVELOP AND TIMING. THINKING SEA BREEZE ARRIVAL WILL BE LATE...BUT IN TIME FOR EVENING DEPARTURES AT JFK. LGA MAY BE STUCK ON 31/22 WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT UNTIL LATE WHEN SEA BREEZE ARRIVES WITH BACKING WINDS. EWR WINDS ARE NORTH IN THE AM AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERFLOW RUNWAY 11. WINDS BACK BY EARLY AFTN AT EWR WITH SPEEDS NEAR THE 10 KT THRESHOLD FOR TAIL WIND ON THE OVERFLOW. EVENING PUSH AT EWR SEES WINDS BACKING TO THE SW. OUTLOOK FROM 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. AN UN-SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE FRONT MAY STALL BRIEFLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATER JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE...STRONG AND COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 6 TO POSSIBLY 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN THURSDAY EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER TODAY...THEN ISOLATED LIGHT QPF ON WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT. RIVER/STREAM LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JC/PW AVIATION...JST MARINE...JST HYDROLOGY...PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS UPTON NY
157 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER...BUT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY ALLOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THERE ARE STILL SOME PESKY SHOWERS DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND...BUT MOST ACTIVITY IS OVER AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRYING OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FCST UPDATE WILL SHOW DRY WEATHER...AND WILL HANDLE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER LONG ISLAND WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS (NOWOKX). SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS WILL RANGE GENERALLY FROM THE MID 60S IN THE CITY TO THE MID 50S INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. AS FOR HIGHS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO H8...BUT THERE IS A SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARDING FORECAST H8 AND SURFACE TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE BOTH GFS...AND TO A GREATER EXTENT...NAM HAS INITIALIZED UPSTREAM H8 TEMPS A LITTLE TOO COLD...BUT NAM SHOWING STRONGER COLD ADVECTION AT THIS LEVEL FOR TOMORROW. FIGURING TEMPS AROUND 9C-10C TOMORROW AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH SUNNY SKIES AND A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ...AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE. FWC MOS BEST REFLECTS THIS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH DURING THE AFTN TO ALLOW FOR LATE DAY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FLAT ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH LOWEST LEVELS WILL INCREASE IN MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DRY. BOTH GFS AND TO A GREATER EXTENT...NAM SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOWER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15C...AND WITH A SW LOW LEVEL FLOW...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE NORMALLY WARMEST SPOTS EXPECTED. A BLEND OF THE MAV/FWC MOS WAS USED FOR HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY FLAT OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH A POLAR VORTEX WELL TO THE NORTH IN EAST-CENTRAL CANADA. THE ALIGNMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE AS PARALLEL TO H5-7 FLOW AS MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING PREVIOUSLY...SO THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWA DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND NAM AGREE WITH THIS...AND HPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF NEW JERSEY AT 12Z THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR T-STORM IN THE EVENING...THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CENTER OFF THIS HIGH WILL PASS NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH...AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE H5 PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...AND DRAGGING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SYNOPTIC SW-W FLOW OVER OUR REGION...AND HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF NJ BACK TOWARDS US AS A WARM FRONT. GFS AND NAM SHOW OVERRUNNING PRECIP...WITH THE GFS TYPICALLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEEP THURSDAY MORNING DRY...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL CATCH UP...AND IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR EAST THIRD OF CWA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MAY TAKE ITS TIME DEPARTING. 0Z/13 ECMWF AND LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA ALL DAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TREND OF FROPA SPEED. RIGHT NOW...THE H5 TROF LOOKS A LITTLE TOO SHARP TO HAVE THE FRONT LINGER ALL DAY ON FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. POSSIBLY SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL GO WITH "HIDDEN" SLIGHT CHANCES FOR BOTH DAYS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER TODAY WITH 100 MILE VISIBILITY. SMOOTH FOR GA BELOW 050. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 060 PRODUCES LIGHT TURBC FOR SMALL AIRCRAFT. NYC METRO...REAL QUESTION IS SEA BREEZE DEVELOP AND TIMING. THINKING SEA BREEZE ARRIVAL WILL BE LATE...BUT IN TIME FOR EVENING DEPARTURES AT JFK. LGA MAY BE STUCK ON 31/22 WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT UNTIL LATE WHEN SEA BREEZE ARRIVES WITH BACKING WINDS. EWR WINDS ARE NORTH IN THE AM AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERFLOW RUNWAY 11. WINDS BACK BY EARLY AFTN AT EWR WITH SPEEDS NEAR THE 10 KT THRESHOLD FOR TAIL WIND ON THE OVERFLOW. EVENING PUSH AT EWR SEES WINDS BACKING TO THE SW. OUTLOOK FROM 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...BUT THE SHOWERS GENERALLY WILL NOT BE OF SIGNIFICANCE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL WASH OUT AS IT REACHES THE WATERS. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS FOR THE MID WEEK BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EITHER LATE THURS NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH A LARGE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND IT. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEK...HOWEVER SEAS MAY TOUCH 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN AND OUTER OCEAN WATERS...DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW BUILDS WIND WAVES. NO FLAGS WILL BE RAISED AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEAR FUTURE FOR MARGINALLY ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER TUESDAY...THEN LESS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED WITH COLD FROPA WED. RIVER/STREAM LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...JST LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...MPS MARINE...MPS HYDROLOGY...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS UPTON NY
1011 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY...AND PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER...BUT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY ALLOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGING IN DRIER AIR. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MORNING SOUNDING SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES ON LONG ISLAND IN THE UPPER 70S. INLAND TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO REACH LOWER TO MID 80S. LEANED TOWARD FWC/MET TEMP FORECASTS. TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD WITH MIXING TO H8 AND TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 9C. THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH DURING THE AFTN TO ALLOW FOR LATE DAY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... FLAT UPPER FLOW WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS TIME FRAME. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. SREF PROB OF CAPE AT LEAST 500 J/KG INCREASES A BIT WEDNESDAY...AND FRONT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM...MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. SLIGHT CHC POPS SHOULD COVER THIS...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED...AND COULD PREVENT CONVECTION. AS FOR TEMPS...AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...WAA OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND H8 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 15C. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...NEAR 90 FOR THE NORMALLY WARMEST SPOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MAV NUMBERS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS WEAK HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...AND STRONGER COLD FRONT...ADVERTISED FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW...WILL QUICKLY APPROACH BY LATE IN THE DAY. TIMING OF THIS FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PROB OF MEASURABLE QPF FROM ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS STILL THE GREATEST WITH THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE MUCH GREATER SUPPORT THAN PREVIOUS FRONTS AS LARGE POLAR VORTEX SETTLES IN CENTRAL CANADA...AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM SLOWER IN FRONTAL MOVEMENT AS COMPARED TO GFS AND ECMWF. FAVOR THE FASTER MOVEMENT ATTM WITH SUFFICIENT UPPER STEERING. THIS WOULD LIMIT PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BULK MOVING OUT TO THE EAST. 12Z/13 ECMWF/GFS NOW SHOW FRONT SAGGING FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE TROUGH WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH PUSH TO DROP FRONT THROUGH MID ATLANTIC. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. POSSIBLY SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL GO WITH "HIDDEN" SLIGHT CHANCES FOR BOTH DAYS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER TODAY WITH 100 MILE VISIBILITY. SMOOTH FOR GA BELOW 050. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 060 PRODUCES LIGHT TURBC FOR SMALL AIRCRAFT. NYC METRO...REAL QUESTION IS SEA BREEZE DEVELOP AND TIMING. THINKING SEA BREEZE ARRIVAL WILL BE LATE...BUT IN TIME FOR EVENING DEPARTURES AT JFK...THOUGH THERE IS POSSIBILITY (~25%) THAT WE DON`T GET THE SEA BREEZE AT ALL. ZNY CONCURS WITH FEELING THAT COOLER OCEAN (NOW 72 F) SHOULD ALLOW SEA BREEZE TO FORM. LGA MAY BE STUCK ON 31/22 WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN SEA BREEZE ARRIVES WITH BACKING WINDS. EWR WINDS ARE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERFLOW RUNWAY 11. WINDS BACK BY EARLY AFTN AT EWR WITH SPEEDS NEAR THE 10 KT THRESHOLD FOR TAIL WIND ON THE OVERFLOW. EVENING PUSH AT EWR SEES WINDS BACKING TO THE SW. OUTLOOK FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE AT THIS TIME. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. AN UN-SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE FRONT MAY STALL BRIEFLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATER JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE...STRONG AND COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 6 TO POSSIBLY 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN THURSDAY EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER TODAY...THEN ISOLATED LIGHT QPF ON WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT. RIVER/STREAM LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS UPTON NY
703 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY...AND PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. YET ANOTHER...BUT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY ALLOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA...AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. LEANED TOWARD FWC/MET TEMP FORECASTS. TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD WITH MIXING TO H8 AND TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 9C. THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH DURING THE AFTN TO ALLOW FOR LATE DAY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... FLAT UPPER FLOW WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS TIME FRAME. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. SREF PROB OF CAPE AT LEAST 500 J/KG INCREASES A BIT WEDNESDAY...AND FRONT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM...MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. SLIGHT CHC POPS SHOULD COVER THIS...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED...AND COULD PREVENT CONVECTION. AS FOR TEMPS...AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...WAA OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND H8 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 15C. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...NEAR 90 FOR THE NORMALLY WARMEST SPOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MAV NUMBERS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS WEAK HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...AND STRONGER COLD FRONT...ADVERTISED FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW...WILL QUICKLY APPROACH BY LATE IN THE DAY. TIMING OF THIS FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PROB OF MEASURABLE QPF FROM ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS STILL THE GREATEST WITH THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE MUCH GREATER SUPPORT THAN PREVIOUS FRONTS AS LARGE POLAR VORTEX SETTLES IN CENTRAL CANADA...AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM SLOWER IN FRONTAL MOVEMENT AS COMPARED TO GFS AND ECMWF. FAVOR THE FASTER MOVEMENT ATTM WITH SUFFICIENT UPPER STEERING. THIS WOULD LIMIT PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BULK MOVING OUT TO THE EAST. 12Z/13 ECMWF/GFS NOW SHOW FRONT SAGGING FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE TROUGH WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH PUSH TO DROP FRONT THROUGH MID ATLANTIC. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. POSSIBLY SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL GO WITH "HIDDEN" SLIGHT CHANCES FOR BOTH DAYS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER TODAY WITH 100 MILE VISIBILITY. SMOOTH FOR GA BELOW 050. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 060 PRODUCES LIGHT TURBC FOR SMALL AIRCRAFT. NYC METRO...REAL QUESTION IS SEA BREEZE DEVELOP AND TIMING. THINKING SEA BREEZE ARRIVAL WILL BE LATE...BUT IN TIME FOR EVENING DEPARTURES AT JFK...THOUGH THERE IS POSSIBILITY (~25%) THAT WE DON`T GET THE SEA BREEZE AT ALL. ZNY CONCURS WITH FEELING THAT COOLER OCEAN (NOW 72 F) SHOULD ALLOW SEA BREEZE TO FORM. LGA MAY BE STUCK ON 31/22 WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN SEA BREEZE ARRIVES WITH BACKING WINDS. EWR WINDS ARE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERFLOW RUNWAY 11. WINDS BACK BY EARLY AFTN AT EWR WITH SPEEDS NEAR THE 10 KT THRESHOLD FOR TAIL WIND ON THE OVERFLOW. EVENING PUSH AT EWR SEES WINDS BACKING TO THE SW. OUTLOOK FROM 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. AN UN-SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE FRONT MAY STALL BRIEFLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATER JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE...STRONG AND COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 6 TO POSSIBLY 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN THURSDAY EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER TODAY...THEN ISOLATED LIGHT QPF ON WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT. RIVER/STREAM LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JC/PW AVIATION...JST MARINE...JST HYDROLOGY...PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
504 AM MDT TUE AUG 14 2007 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THAT MEANS PLENTY OF SUN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON FRIDAY MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN. THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .DISCUSSION... IN THE SHORT THE SHORT TERM LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE MODELS OR THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SO THAT MEANS A CONTINUATION OF OUR SUNNY WARM WEATHER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST BOTH TODAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AFTER THURSDAY THINGS BEGIN TO GET A LITTLE MORE TRICKY WITH THE FORECAST. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SURGE. THE GFS ALSO ASSOCIATES THE MOISTURE WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE...WHILE THE NAM ASSOCIATES THE MOISTURE WITH A STRONG CLOSED LOW. SINCE THERE IS SUCH A BIG DIFFERENCE ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED WAVE I HAVE OPTED NOT TO TINKER WITH THE POPS ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...IF THE GFS IS CORRECT OUR CURRENTLY FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD COVER THINGS. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BOTH THE DGEX AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER...SO I HAVE TRENDED THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER DOWN AND HAVE TRENDED THE TEMPERATURE UP A FEW DEGREES. && .AVIATION...14/12Z-15/12Z GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST. WHAT FEW THUNDERSTORMS THERE WILL BE WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH NOT TO POSE MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO AIRCRAFT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 96 73 96 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 10 SIERRA BLANCA TX 93 66 93 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 10 LAS CRUCES 96 70 96 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 10 ALAMOGORDO 94 69 94 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 10 CLOUDCROFT 74 51 74 50 71 / 10 10 10 10 20 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 95 69 95 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 10 SILVER CITY 86 61 87 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 DEMING 95 68 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 10 LORDSBURG 94 68 95 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 15/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT TUE AUG 14 2007 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE HOT DAYS INLAND WITH SLIGHT COOLING THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. A FEW STORM COULD DRIFT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL REDEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK CAUSING AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. .SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)... THERE WERE JUST A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING. LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE E AND THERE WERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A COUPLE SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTED INTO THE SE SAN DIEGO INLAND VALLEY AREAS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. E DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. EARLY AFTERNOON ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN INVERSION BASED BELOW 1000 FT WITH ELY WINDS TO 15 KTS IN THE MID LEVELS. WEAK GRADIENTS. A STRONG BROAD AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SRN US WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST. HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INLAND...ALTHOUGH VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LOCALLY MODERATE THE MAX TEMPS AGAIN ON WED. MOISTURE IN SE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH WED WITH ONLY PATCHY MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THU AND FRI AND THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...GRADUALLY DECREASING THU AND THEN MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS FRI. A MESO LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SRN DESERTS COULD CARRY A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY TO THE SAN DIEGO COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. && .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER EXCEPT FOR COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. A TROUGH MOVING PAST TO THE N WILL LOWER LOCAL HEIGHTS A LITTLE FOR NOT QUITE AS HOT DAYS INLAND. && .AVIATION... 142000Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED AS THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW AND NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY MARINE STRATUS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BETWEEN 09Z-15Z WED MORNING BUT WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN ANY COASTAL TAFS. HOWEVER... AREAS OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY IN FOG AND HAZE IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT AFTER 08Z. DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING BKN TO OVC CIGS BETWEEN FL150 AND FL250 UNTIL AFTER 03Z ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE...BUT MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WITH WITH ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH BASES NEAR FL070 AND TOPS TO AROUND FL450 THROUGH 03Z. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...DVA AVIATION...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
335 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007 .DISCUSSION... 335 PM CDT MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN IOWA HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLUGGISH TRACKING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ADVECT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT WITH THE SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL KINEMATCS DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE TONIGHT FOR MCS FORMATION...WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM KANSAS INTO WESTERN IOWA. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TONIGHT CONFINED TO MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SLOWING BOUNDARY...BUT EXPECTING BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO REMAIN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. ATTENTION FOR WEDNESDAY THEN TURNS TO NORTHWARD RETURN OF THIS BOUNDARY AND INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT AS THIS BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECTING THIS BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODELS ALSO ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN LIFTING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST/SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW...PROSPECTS FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER GIVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ENTIRE FORECAST ARE REMAINS UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN SPC SWODY2. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER 35-40 KNOT SWRY LLJ JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. STILL EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THREAT ON THURSDAY TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 GIVEN ANTICIPATED TIMING OF THIS FRONT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO AROUND 80 FAR SOUTH. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AN ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT WAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHARPENING EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SO HAD TO MAINTAIN BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MARSILI && .AVIATION DISCUSSION... 151 PM CDT THE ACARS SOUNDING SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME STABLE THIS LATE MORNING. THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AROUND 0100 UTC BUT IT MAY BE LATER. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION ON THE SURFACE OVER IOWA AT 16 UTC. THIS CIRCULATION MAY DEVELOP INTO A WEAK LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT EAST INTO MICHIGAN. THERE SEEMS TO BE NO UPPER AIR SUPPORT SUCH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A DEEPER LOW. WILL NOT FORECAST RAIN TONIGHT. SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE WEST AND NORTH OF ROCKFORD AND SOUTH OF THE TAF AREA IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. && .MARINE DISCUSSION... 245 PM CDT THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING. THE WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL ALSO FORECAST A DECREASE IN WAVES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE IT GETS TO NEW YORK THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND A HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. WE USED THE LOCALLY RUN WRF...GFS MODEL AND THE WRF RUN NCEP FOR THIS FORECAST. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG THE INDIANA AND ILLINOIS BORDER. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
252 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007 .DISCUSSION... 315 AM CDT GEARING UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE BEEN MONITORING MCS MOVING SWD THROUGH WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NWRN ILLINOIS BY ZONE ISSUANCE TIME. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND A STRONG DEW POINT GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE LINE ASSD WITH THE MCS TO TRACK SWD ALG THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...HAVE GENERALLY GONE ALONG WITH THE NAM12 GUIDANCE AS FAR AS THE TIMING OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...THOUGH DO NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS AS FAR AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE IS CONCERNED. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF FRONTAL PASSAGES FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAVE TIMED THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY THE WRN PORTIONS...WILL BE WORKED OVER BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL TSRA OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE FROPA. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EWD AND INCRG SSWLY FLOW ENHANCES MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AS WELL WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT SETS UP OVER CNTRL IL WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSD WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL ENHANCE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WX IS LIKELY. THE UNUSUALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE SHORT TERM AND INTO THE LONGER TERM THE BETTER DEFINE THE FROPA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...HAVE NOT MADE MUCH ADJUSTMENT TO THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIODS. KREIN && .AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE ACARS SOUNDING SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME STABLE THIS LATE MORNING. THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AROUND 0100 UTC BUT IT MAY BE LATER. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION ON THE SURFACE OVER IOWA AT 16 UTC. THIS CIRCULATION MAY DEVELOP INTO A WEAK LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT EAST INTO MICHIGAN. THERE SEEMS TO BE NO UPPER AIR SUPPORT SUCH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A DEEPER LOW. WILL NOT FORECAST RAIN TONIGHT. SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE WEST AND NORTH OF ROCKFORD AND SOUTH OF THE TAF AREA IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. && .MARINE DISCUSSION... 245 PM CDT THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING. THE WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL ALSO FORECAST A DECREASE IN WAVES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE IT GETS TO NEW YORK THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND A HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. WE USED THE LOCALLY RUN WRF...GFS MODEL AND THE WRF RUN NCEP FOR THIS FORECAST. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG THE INDIANA AND ILLINOIS BORDER. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
151 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007 .DISCUSSION... 315 AM CDT GEARING UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE BEEN MONITORING MCS MOVING SWD THROUGH WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NWRN ILLINOIS BY ZONE ISSUANCE TIME. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND A STRONG DEW POINT GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE LINE ASSD WITH THE MCS TO TRACK SWD ALG THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...HAVE GENERALLY GONE ALONG WITH THE NAM12 GUIDANCE AS FAR AS THE TIMING OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...THOUGH DO NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS AS FAR AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE IS CONCERNED. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF FRONTAL PASSAGES FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAVE TIMED THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY THE WRN PORTIONS...WILL BE WORKED OVER BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL TSRA OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE FROPA. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EWD AND INCRG SSWLY FLOW ENHANCES MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AS WELL WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT SETS UP OVER CNTRL IL WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSD WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL ENHANCE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WX IS LIKELY. THE UNUSUALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE SHORT TERM AND INTO THE LONGER TERM THE BETTER DEFINE THE FROPA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...HAVE NOT MADE MUCH ADJUSTMENT TO THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIODS. KREIN && .AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE ACARS SOUNDING SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME STABLE THIS LATE MORNING. THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AROUND 0100 UTC BUT IT MAY BE LATER. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION ON THE SURFACE OVER IOWA AT 16 UTC. THIS CIRCULATION MAY DEVELOP INTO A WEAK LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT EAST INTO MICHIGAN. THERE SEEMS TO BE NO UPPER AIR SUPPORT SUCH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A DEEPER LOW. WILL NOT FORECAST RAIN TONIGHT. SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE WEST AND NORTH OF ROCKFORD AND SOUTH OF THE TAF AREA IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. && .MARINE DISCUSSION... 330 AM CDT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO HAS A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ON TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...BUT MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GIVING WAY TO YET ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES JAMES BAY THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MERZLOCK && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
243 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007 .DISCUSSION... FIRST...THE HEAT ADVISORY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN AOA 105 DEGREES. THE WINNER SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN GLS WITH A 114 DEGREE READING AT 2 PM (T/TD AT 97/78 WITH CALM WINDS). FORECAST GRIDS FOR TOMORROW INDICATE VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES INLAND AND CLOSER TO 110 ACROSS A SMALL AREA ALONG THE COAST. IF THESE VALUES ARE REACHED...THE HEAT ADVISORY WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE ABLE TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM RISING TOO MUCH ABOVE 105 DEGREES. WILL THEREFORE LET THE HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING. IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL TOMORROW. WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED IF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINS DO NOT MATERIALIZE AND ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS ISSUED. SECOND...THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. WHETHER OR NOT NHC/TPC DOES UPGRADE THIS SYSTEM TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE OR TROPICAL STORM ERIN...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE HEADING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL PROGGED TO APPROACH 2.50 INCHES FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO GET A FIX ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL...BUT WE WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY FORECAST. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS COULD EASILY RECEIVE (AND QUITE POSSIBLY EXCEED) 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT HIGH AND POSSIBLE TRAINING SETTING UP. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STAY TUNED...AS UPCOMING FORECASTS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN OUR RECENT HEAT SPELL DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL GO DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS WE GET BACK INTO A PATTERN OF MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING STORMS. 42 && .AVIATION... LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS QUITE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE COAST. CONVECTION APPEARS LESS LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON SINCE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 90S MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS AND THERE ARE LITTLE IF ANY LOW CU DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN SOMEWHAT DRIER MOISTURE PROFILES FROM SOUNDING DATA...DECIDED TO KEEP A FEW LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT PULL CB`S. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL KEEP SOME LOWER VSBY AT KCXO...KSGR AND KLBX. MAY UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH INCREASING E WINDS AFTER 15Z WITH A PROB30 FOR CONVECTION MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND THE HOUSTON AREA. ANY STRONG WINDS AND STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 18Z WED WHICH THE NEXT TAF FORECAST WILL COVER. 39 && .MARINE... THE MARINE FORECAST IS GETTING A BIT MORE COMPLICATED GIVEN THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE 12Z NAM STRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM INTO A T.S. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT AS A MORE OPEN WAVE. FOR NOW THINK THE BEST BET IS TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO WITH MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS BEGINNING TOMORROW. FOR NOW WINDS E-SE 20-25KTS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH 5-7FT IN THE OFFSHORE AREAS. OF COURSE ALL OF THIS WILL BE TRUMPED SHOULD A T.S. ACTUALLY DEVELOP. STILL...SHOULD SEE CAUTION CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DEVELOP WED MORNING WITH SCA CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. SE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THU/FRI WHICH WILL KEEP SEE UP FOR A BIT...BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LAST INTO THU AND POSSIBLY CAUTION CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO HAVE MORE REASONABLE WINDS NEAR 10-15KTS WITH 2-4FT SEAS. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 97 77 93 77 / 10 20 20 50 40 HOUSTON (IAH) 78 95 77 93 77 / 10 40 40 60 40 GALVESTON (GLS) 82 91 82 90 82 / 10 50 50 60 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS... COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS... HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA... MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER... WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
156 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007 .DISCUSSION... TROPICAL SEASON QUICKLY BECOMING ACTIVE...WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COMING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE RACED ACROSS SOUTH PADRE ISLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING...WHILE ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM SWEPT THROUGH NORTHERN KENEDY COUNTY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW LATER THIS EVENING. THE NEXT THREAT IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT ROUGHLY 15KTS. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY DOING RECON ON THIS STORM. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY SPLIT ON WHAT THIS FEATURE WILL DO...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT WEAK AND CONTINUING IT ON ITS TRACK...REACHING BROWNSVILLE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHILE THE ETA HAS SOME STRENGTHENING INVOLVED AS IT MOVES MORE TOWARD CRP. FEEL THAT BOTH MODELS ARE MISSING THE MARK. FEEL THE ECMWF BEST REPRESENTS THE RELATIVE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF CENTER OF LOW...SO WILL BASE WIND FIELDS AROUND THIS. HEAVY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE NOW THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THRUST TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY NEED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREA STARTING TOMORROW MORNING. REMNANT MOISTURE IN THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEABREEZE SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO HINGE ON THE TRACKING OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN...STILL 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR UPDATES. && .AVIATION... WILL GO WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT...BUT WILL BRING DOWN CEILINGS AND VSBYS TOMORROW AS THE GULF LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. && .MARINE... OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL HINGE GREATLY ON THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. REGARDLESS OF THE DEGREE OF DEVELOPMENT...WILL GO WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN OFFSHORE SWELL ACTIVITY UNTIL THIS FEATURE PUSHES INLAND LATE WED/EARLY THURS WITH THE SWELLS DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH INTO FRI. AFTER FRI...A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 91 81 91 / 50 60 60 60 BROWNSVILLE 78 93 78 93 / 50 60 60 60 HARLINGEN 77 94 78 94 / 50 60 60 60 MCALLEN 77 97 79 97 / 40 60 60 60 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 97 79 97 / 20 60 60 60 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 92 80 90 / 50 60 60 60 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE 64/60