FXUS64 KOUN 250910
AFDOKC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
410 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS ON THE WAY. AND IT IS NOW STARING 
US IN THE FACE AS A FINE LINE ON KDDC RADAR IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ENTRY INTO OUR AREA AROUND NOON... BUT 
PROGRESS RELATIVELY SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  PRECIP CHANCES 
STILL LOOK GOOD STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD ENCOUNTERS THE 
LOW TO MID 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. ETA 
SHOWS NO CIN LEFT AS 00Z ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. 
AWAY FROM THE FRONT BELIEVE GUIDANCE POPS ARE TOO HIGH FOR AT LEAST 
THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW. BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS 
AREAWIDE.

SEE NO REASON TO BACK OFF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT. 
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. FRONT CLEARS 
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP LINGERING POPS IN 
THE TOMORROW MORNING.  WILL GO ON THE COOL SIDE OR BELOW MOS 
GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT - IT'S JUST COLD UP THERE IN COLORADO AND 
NORTHWEST KANSAS. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED MINS A TOUCH - ESPECIALLY 
NORTHWEST.  HAVE ALSO GONE WINDIER THAN MOS OR PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR A RETURNING 
CHANCE OF PRECIP ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES IN 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONTINUITY IN THIS SIGNAL 
BEFORE ADDING ANY POPS AND WILL WATCH TRENDS.

OKC   92   61   80   58  / 40  100   40    0  
HBR   93   61   79   58  / 50   80   30    0  
SPS   95   66   82   60  / 20   90   40    0  
GAG   85   54   77   54  / 50   50    5    0  
PNC   90   57   79   56  / 60   80   10    0  
DUA   93   68   84   59  / 20   80   50    0  

FORECAST ID = 26

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.