Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
000 FXUS63 KLBF 160804 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 304 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2009 .DISCUSSION... GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWING LARGE VORTEX SPINNING OVER GULF OF AK INTO COAST OF CANADA. STRONG JET UNDERCUTTING THIS LOW AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES...MOST LIKELY AIDING IN DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND LOW AND FIRST BATCH LOOKS TO BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALTA. ASSOC SFC LOW MOVING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH SFC TROF EXTENDING ALONG LEE OF ROCKIES AND LEFT OVER DRY LINE TYPE FEATURE LAYING ACROSS WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO NE COLORADO. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND WEST FOF THIS FEATURE AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HIGH FIRE DANGER DAY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY AS WARM AIR MOVES INTO HIGH PLAINS UNDER ZONAL FLOW. WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH DEEP LAYER OF PROFILE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO ALSO REACH NEAR 25 MPH MARK AND COMBINE WITH SINGLE DIGIT TO LOWER TEEN RH LEVELS TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. JET AND ENERGY ACROSS THE CONUS BORDER LOOKS TO WRAP UP INTO FAIRLY STRONG CYCLONE ACROSS WESTERN H.BAY AND TAP INTO SOME OF THE COLDER AIR ACROSS HIGHER LATTITUDES. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS COLD AIR WITH FRONT ON TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE THE STICKING POINT OF THIS FORECAST. NAM/GFS QUITE DIFFERENT ON AMOUNT OF COLD AIR LEAKING SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY. NAM USUALLY HANDLES THE COLD AIR BETTER BUT MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KEEPS BULK OF THE COLDER AIR FROM MOVING SOUTHWARD UNTIL LATE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS NEAR CURRENT FORECAST. ADDED ISO RW TO THE NORTH WITH TAIL END OF WAVE MOVING ACROSS AND SFC FRONT AT SFC. BUFKIT PROFILE HOWEVER SHOW VIRGA/SPRINKLES EVENT WITH VERY DRY LOW LAYERS. COOLER WED WITH NW FLOW BACKING COLD AIR INTO THE PLAINS. SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS RIDGE SETS UP AGAIN ACROSS ROCKIES ON THURS AND WARMING TREND ON TAP THROUGH WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. && .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FROM 16Z TO 1Z FOR ALL OF CWA. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA 16Z-01Z. && $$ 13/POWER
