AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT THU JUL 10 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION WITH SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AT
TIMES MOST AREAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A LITTLE COOLING
AND DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AFTER MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AFTER THE BIG MARINE PUSH YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE ACTUALLY
A LITTLE WARMER IN THE COASTAL REGIONS OF SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE
COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH A LITTLE SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER. THE UPPER AND LOWER DESERTS ARE COOLER TODAY. THE AREA
CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
BRING A SLIGHT OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
WITH THE POSSIBILTY ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF HOW
MUCH AND WHEN. A LOT OR TOO MUCH CLOUDS MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES AT
TIMES BUT WOULD ALSO LESSON THE CHANCE OF TSTORMS.
EXTENDED...MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO HANG AROUND INTO
SUNDAY AND THEN START TO DECREASE MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE MONDAY FOR DRYING ALOFT TUESDAY AND MID WEEK. MARINE
LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY DEEPEN UP MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...
101945Z...MDCRS SOUNDINGS NEAR KSNA AND KLAX INDICATE THE MARINE
LAYER DEPTH HAD LOWERED TO NEAR 1200 FEET. NO RECENT MDCRS SOUNDINGS
FROM KSAN ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAD LOWERED IN THAT AREA AS WELL SINCE THE
STRATUS HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTED. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAINS AROUND
1200 FEET INTO FRIDAY. STRATUS SHOULD RECOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST BY SUNSET AND SPREAD BACK INLAND OVER THE LOWER COASTAL VALLEY
AND MESA AREAS DURING THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON STRATUS
REACHING THE FAR INLAND VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT. EXPECT BREAKUP ON
FRIDAY TO BE BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS... MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO BROKEN ALTOCU OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. BASES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FL120. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
CBS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS WHICH
COULD HAVE BASES DOWN TO FL080 WITH TOPS TO FL350 OR HIGHER AT TIMES
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN DESERT AREAS SHOULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS FOR KPSP AND KTRM NEAR 40C FOR FRIDAY...KONT SHOULD BE NEAR
35C.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...ECC
AVIATION/MARINE...HORTON
WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION WITH SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AT
TIMES MOST AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LITTLE COOLING AND DRYING IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
A RATHER LARGE SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE
WEST IN NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS HAS BROUGHT ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A SPRINKLE OR TWO AROUND THE REGION. SOME VERY
WEAK RADAR RETURNS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AT THIS TIME...BUT NO RAIN
DETECTED IN OUR FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECREASE IN THE
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS BLOW IN. ANY THUNDER
TODAY SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE LATEST GFS DEPOSITS THE DISTURBANCE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOME INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT REDUCED IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY COMPARED TO A CLEAR DAY BY THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WE
EXPECT TO BE SIGNIFICANT.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING MINOR COOLING AND AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION...
101515Z...MDCRS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH RANGED
FROM NEAR 2200 FEET VICINITY OF KSAN TO 1800 FEET VICINITY OF KSNA.
AREAS OF STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY WITH COASTAL AIRPORTS BECOMING SCATTERED BY 18Z. STRATUS
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COULD BRING CEILINGS TO
THE COASTAL AIRPORTS FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STRATUS SHOULD MOVE BACK INLAND OVER THE LOWER COASTAL VALLEY AND
MESA AREAS DURING THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON STRATUS REACHING
THE FAR INLAND VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT. EXPECT BREAKUP ON FRIDAY TO BE
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS... MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO BROKEN ALTOCU OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. BASES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FL120. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
CBS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS WHICH
COULD HAVE BASES DOWN TO FL080 WITH TOPS TO FL350 OR HIGHER AT TIMES
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN DESERT AREAS SHOULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS FOR KPSP AND KTRM NEAR 40C FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY...KONT SHOULD
BE NEAR 35C.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...HORTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1042 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008
.UPDATE...12 SOUNDING SHOWED SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW DECREASE IN
PWAT`S FROM EAST TO WEST BUT BELIEVE THE WESTWARD DRYING HAS
SLOWED. NAM40 AND LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS CONVECTION FORMING INTO
WESTERN COLLIER, HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ONLY UP THAT AREA FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. MIAMI BEACH HAD RESCUES
THIS MORNING BUT WITH THE HIGH TIDE APPROACHING JUST AFTER 2 PM,
WE ARE NOW FOR SURE IN A MODERATE RISK PHASE ALONG THE EAST COAST
FOR RIPS. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP, SAF`S AND ISSUED THE 1030 AM CWF
PACKAGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALONG WITH MODERATE ESE FLOW AROUND
13KTS AT ALL EAST COAST METRO TERMINALS TODAY. A FEW SHRA ARE PSBL
ROLLING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC AT TIMES...BUT SO FAR THEY HAVE
BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST SO DID NOT INCLUDE
VCSH IN 12Z TAFS. AT KAPF...GENERAL ESE FLOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SEA BREEZE FROM THE SW BY 19Z WHICH WILL LEAD TO ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WITH BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS PSBL.
/STRASSBERG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008/
.A MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...
DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA TODAY. GFS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE H5 RIDGE PARKED RIGHT OVER
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SUBSIDENCE...AND WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY. ACARS DATA SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW NEAR 15 KT...ALONG WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL INVERSION
THAN DEPICTED IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...INDICATIVE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
TAKING PLACE. THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...SO AM NOT EXPECTING A GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO
"FULLY" DEVELOP. THIS WILL MINIMIZE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE. WITH SUCH
STRONG HEATING (NEAR RECORDS) AND A SLIGHT WIND "INFLUENCE" FROM THE
GULF (WINDS POSSIBLY VEERING TO SOUTHERLY)...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS INTERIOR/GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...ODDS
ARE AGAINST STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IF ONE DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...IT COULD THEN BECOME STRONG AS IT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
DRY AIR TO TAP INTO.
THE SAL/SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH MOVED INTO THE AREA YESTERDAY
WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE TODAY...SO SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZY.
TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY HIGHS GULF COAST AND LOWS EAST COAST. AM
FORECASTING 94F AT NAPLES THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WHICH IS JUST ONE
DEGREE BELOW THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. ISOLATED STORMS ARE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY INTERIOR/GULF
COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY
WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE FORMATION.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WELL DEFINED TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE SOUTH
PROVIDING FOR A SW WIND FLOW...AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...A
RETURN TO OUR MORE TYPICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH FOCUS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
MARINE...EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL TODAY...BEFORE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE SOUTH...ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN INTO THE
STRAITS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A S-SW FLOW
LOCALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST SWELL
GENERATED FROM BERTHA WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE BAHAMAS.
FIRE WEATHER...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SO NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 80 90 78 / 10 10 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 82 88 81 / 10 10 20 10
MIAMI 90 81 89 79 / 10 10 20 10
NAPLES 94 74 94 74 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
734 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALONG WITH MODERATE ESE FLOW AROUND
13KTS AT ALL EAST COAST METRO TERMINALS TODAY. A FEW SHRA ARE PSBL
ROLLING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC AT TIMES...BUT SO FAR THEY HAVE
BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST SO DID NOT INCLUDE
VCSH IN 12Z TAFS. AT KAPF...GENERAL ESE FLOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SEA BREEZE FROM THE SW BY 19Z WHICH WILL LEAD TO ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WITH BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS PSBL.
/STRASSBERG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008/
..A MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...
DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA TODAY. GFS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE H5 RIDGE PARKED RIGHT OVER
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SUBSIDENCE...AND WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY. ACARS DATA SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW NEAR 15 KT...ALONG WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL INVERSION
THAN DEPICTED IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...INDICATIVE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
TAKING PLACE. THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...SO AM NOT EXPECTING A GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO
"FULLY" DEVELOP. THIS WILL MINIMIZE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE. WITH SUCH
STRONG HEATING (NEAR RECORDS) AND A SLIGHT WIND "INFLUENCE" FROM THE
GULF (WINDS POSSIBLY VEERING TO SOUTHERLY)...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS INTERIOR/GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...ODDS
ARE AGAINST STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IF ONE DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...IT COULD THEN BECOME STRONG AS IT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
DRY AIR TO TAP INTO.
THE SAL/SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH MOVED INTO THE AREA YESTERDAY
WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE TODAY...SO SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZY.
TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY HIGHS GULF COAST AND LOWS EAST COAST. AM
FORECASTING 94F AT NAPLES THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WHICH IS JUST ONE
DEGREE BELOW THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. ISOLATED STORMS ARE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY INTERIOR/GULF
COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY
WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE FORMATION.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WELL DEFINED TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE SOUTH
PROVIDING FOR A SW WIND FLOW...AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...A
RETURN TO OUR MORE TYPICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH FOCUS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
MARINE...EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL TODAY...BEFORE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE SOUTH...ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN INTO THE
STRAITS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A S-SW FLOW
LOCALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST SWELL
GENERATED FROM BERTHA WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE BAHAMAS.
FIRE WEATHER...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SO NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 80 90 78 / 10 10 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 82 88 81 / 10 10 20 10
MIAMI 90 81 89 79 / 10 10 20 10
NAPLES 94 74 94 74 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...57/DG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
430 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008
...A MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA TODAY. GFS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE H5 RIDGE PARKED RIGHT OVER
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SUBSIDENCE...AND WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY. ACARS DATA SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW NEAR 15 KT...ALONG WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL INVERSION
THAN DEPICTED IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...INDICATIVE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
TAKING PLACE. THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...SO AM NOT EXPECTING A GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO
"FULLY" DEVELOP. THIS WILL MINIMIZE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE. WITH SUCH
STRONG HEATING (NEAR RECORDS) AND A SLIGHT WIND "INFLUENCE" FROM THE
GULF (WINDS POSSIBLY VEERING TO SOUTHERLY)...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS INTERIOR/GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...ODDS
ARE AGAINST STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IF ONE DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...IT COULD THEN BECOME STRONG AS IT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
DRY AIR TO TAP INTO.
THE SAL/SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH MOVED INTO THE AREA YESTERDAY
WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE TODAY...SO SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZY.
TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY HIGHS GULF COAST AND LOWS EAST COAST. AM
FORECASTING 94F AT NAPLES THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WHICH IS JUST ONE
DEGREE BELOW THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. ISOLATED STORMS ARE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY INTERIOR/GULF
COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY
WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE FORMATION.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WELL DEFINED TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE SOUTH
PROVIDING FOR A SW WIND FLOW...AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...A
RETURN TO OUR MORE TYPICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH FOCUS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL TODAY...BEFORE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE SOUTH...ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN INTO THE
STRAITS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A S-SW FLOW
LOCALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST SWELL
GENERATED FROM BERTHA WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE BAHAMAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SO NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 80 90 78 / 10 10 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 82 88 81 / 10 10 20 10
MIAMI 90 81 89 79 / 10 10 20 10
NAPLES 94 74 94 74 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...57/DG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
927 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008
.UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...
ONLY CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE CLOUD COVERAGE
OVER PRIMARILY C KS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA & EVEN A FEW TSRA OVER SE KS AS NIGHT
PROGRESSES AS A WEAK...BUT DISCERNABLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS
NE FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES TOWARD THE SW CORRIDOR.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008/
UPDATE...
AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE: [KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU]
ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA WILL LINGER OVER SE KS THIS EVENING
BUT SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE DICTATES LEAVING ANY MENTION OUT OF KCNU.
MOIST S/SW LWR-DECK FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE 00Z PERIOD
PROGRESSES IN RESPONSE TO SFC-850MB TROF DEEPENING OVER ERN CO. W/
MID-LEVEL TROF MOVING E TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...SRN PLAINS CEILINGS
OF 6,000-7,000 FEET TO PREVAIL ACROSS SRN KS THROUGH 18Z. FEATURE
MAY INDUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER SC
& SE KS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS ONE FACET OF FORECAST THAT`LL
REQUIRE ATTENTION OVER NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS/HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER CHANCES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
STUBBORN POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS KANSAS IN CONCERT WITH RICH AND DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY TRY TO GET GOING FARTHER NORTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...BUT LACK OF DISCERNABLE BOUNDARY SHOULD LESSEN THE
LANDSPOUT THREAT...DESPITE MODESTLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL END ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND SUNSET...BUT SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO FESTER THROUGH THE NIGHT EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE...AND EVEN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...IN ZONE OF RICH/DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.
COLD FRONT STILL SLATED TO ENTER CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THINKING
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...AND THIS ACTIVITY
COULD THREATEN CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE...GIVEN
WEAKENING SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING CAP WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT.
HOWEVER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AT LEAST SOME
WEAK UPPER FORCING MAY PROMOTE ACTIVITY GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AS
WICHITA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SO BRUNT OF AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT THIS POINT. WEAK
FORCING AND MOIST LOW SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER NORTHWEST OVER THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...LINGERING 700-500MB MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS MAY RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS RETURN FLOW COMMENCES AND WEAK MID/UPPER
PERTURBATIONS TRAVERSE ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY
THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THESE PERTURBATIONS/DISTURBANCES IS LOW.
DON`T THINK THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THEM VERY WELL.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THINKING SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY BE HELD DOWN
A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. READINGS ANTICIPATED
TO RISE TO NEAR/ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FROM MONDAY AND BEYOND...AS
SOUTHWEST CONUS MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST/NORTH.
KLEINSASSER
AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...COUPLE OF UPDATES ALREADY HAVE
BEEN MADE TO GRIDS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
WATER VAPOR LOOP/PROFILERS/ACARS DATA SUGGEST A RIPPLE IN UPPER
FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION IS
DEVELOPING/EXPANDING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. RADAR LOOP ALSO
SUGGEST SMALL MCV ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DDC AND AVK. HAVE BUMPED
UP PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400
AND INCREASED CLOUDS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...HAVE TRIMMED BACK
ON MAXES. TOP 1200 UTC SOUNDING WAS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN
SGF...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF SOMEWHERE ON
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.
HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 72 92 71 87 / 20 20 10 30
HUTCHINSON 71 94 68 85 / 20 10 20 20
NEWTON 71 92 69 85 / 20 10 20 20
ELDORADO 71 89 72 87 / 30 20 10 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 72 89 72 90 / 30 20 10 30
RUSSELL 69 97 63 84 / 10 10 20 20
GREAT BEND 69 96 64 84 / 10 10 20 20
SALINA 71 95 64 84 / 10 10 20 20
MCPHERSON 71 94 66 85 / 10 10 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 72 86 73 90 / 30 20 10 30
CHANUTE 71 86 73 88 / 30 20 10 30
IOLA 71 86 72 88 / 30 20 10 30
PARSONS-KPPF 72 86 73 90 / 30 20 10 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
705 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008
.UPDATE...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE: [KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU]
ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA WILL LINGER OVER SE KS THIS EVENING
BUT SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE DICTATES LEAVING ANY MENTION OUT OF KCNU.
MOIST S/SW LWR-DECK FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE 00Z PERIOD
PROGRESSES IN RESPONSE TO SFC-850MB TROF DEEPENING OVER ERN CO. W/
MID-LEVEL TROF MOVING E TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...SRN PLAINS CEILINGS
OF 6,000-7,000 FEET TO PREVAIL ACROSS SRN KS THROUGH 18Z. FEATURE
MAY INDUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER SC
& SE KS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS ONE FACET OF FORECAST THAT`LL
REQUIRE ATTENTION OVER NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS/HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER CHANCES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
STUBBORN POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS KANSAS IN CONCERT WITH RICH AND DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY TRY TO GET GOING FARTHER NORTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...BUT LACK OF DISCERNABLE BOUNDARY SHOULD LESSEN THE
LANDSPOUT THREAT...DESPITE MODESTLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL END ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND SUNSET...BUT SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO FESTER THROUGH THE NIGHT EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE...AND EVEN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...IN ZONE OF RICH/DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.
COLD FRONT STILL SLATED TO ENTER CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THINKING
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...AND THIS ACTIVITY
COULD THREATEN CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE...GIVEN
WEAKENING SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING CAP WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT.
HOWEVER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AT LEAST SOME
WEAK UPPER FORCING MAY PROMOTE ACTIVITY GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AS
WICHITA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SO BRUNT OF AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT THIS POINT. WEAK
FORCING AND MOIST LOW SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER NORTHWEST OVER THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...LINGERING 700-500MB MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS MAY RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS RETURN FLOW COMMENCES AND WEAK MID/UPPER
PERTURBATIONS TRAVERSE ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY
THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THESE PERTURBATIONS/DISTURBANCES IS LOW.
DON`T THINK THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THEM VERY WELL.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THINKING SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY BE HELD DOWN
A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. READINGS ANTICIPATED
TO RISE TO NEAR/ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FROM MONDAY AND BEYOND...AS
SOUTHWEST CONUS MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST/NORTH.
KLEINSASSER
AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...COUPLE OF UPDATES ALREADY HAVE
BEEN MADE TO GRIDS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
WATER VAPOR LOOP/PROFILERS/ACARS DATA SUGGEST A RIPPLE IN UPPER
FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION IS
DEVELOPING/EXPANDING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. RADAR LOOP ALSO
SUGGEST SMALL MCV ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DDC AND AVK. HAVE BUMPED
UP PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400
AND INCREASED CLOUDS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...HAVE TRIMMED BACK
ON MAXES. TOP 1200 UTC SOUNDING WAS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN
SGF...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF SOMEWHERE ON
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.
HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 72 92 71 87 / 20 20 10 30
HUTCHINSON 71 94 68 85 / 20 10 20 20
NEWTON 71 92 69 85 / 20 10 20 20
ELDORADO 71 89 72 87 / 30 20 10 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 72 89 72 90 / 30 20 10 30
RUSSELL 69 97 63 84 / 10 10 20 20
GREAT BEND 69 96 64 84 / 10 10 20 20
SALINA 71 95 64 84 / 10 10 20 20
MCPHERSON 71 94 66 85 / 10 10 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 72 86 73 90 / 30 20 10 30
CHANUTE 71 86 73 88 / 30 20 10 30
IOLA 71 86 72 88 / 30 20 10 30
PARSONS-KPPF 72 86 73 90 / 30 20 10 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
314 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS/HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER CHANCES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
STUBBORN POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS KANSAS IN CONCERT WITH RICH AND DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY TRY TO GET GOING FARTHER NORTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...BUT LACK OF DISCERNABLE BOUNDARY SHOULD LESSEN THE
LANDSPOUT THREAT...DESPITE MODESTLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL END ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND SUNSET...BUT SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO FESTER THROUGH THE NIGHT EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE...AND EVEN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...IN ZONE OF RICH/DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.
COLD FRONT STILL SLATED TO ENTER CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THINKING
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...AND THIS ACTIVITY
COULD THREATEN CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE...GIVEN
WEAKENING SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING CAP WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT.
HOWEVER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AT LEAST SOME
WEAK UPPER FORCING MAY PROMOTE ACTIVITY GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AS
WICHITA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SO BRUNT OF AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT THIS POINT. WEAK
FORCING AND MOIST LOW SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER NORTHWEST OVER THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...LINGERING 700-500MB MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS MAY RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS RETURN FLOW COMMENCES AND WEAK MID/UPPER
PERTURBATIONS TRAVERSE ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY
THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THESE PERTURBATIONS/DISTURBANCES IS LOW.
DON`T THINK THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THEM VERY WELL.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THINKING SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY BE HELD DOWN
A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. READINGS ANTICIPATED
TO RISE TO NEAR/ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FROM MONDAY AND BEYOND...AS
SOUTHWEST CONUS MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST/NORTH.
KLEINSASSER
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...COUPLE OF UPDATES ALREADY HAVE
BEEN MADE TO GRIDS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
WATER VAPOR LOOP/PROFILERS/ACARS DATA SUGGEST A RIPPLE IN UPPER
FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION IS
DEVELOPING/EXPANDING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. RADAR LOOP ALSO
SUGGEST SMALL MCV ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DDC AND AVK. HAVE BUMPED
UP PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400
AND INCREASED CLOUDS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...HAVE TRIMMED BACK
ON MAXES. TOP 1200 UTC SOUNDING WAS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN
SGF...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF SOMEWHERE ON
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.
HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 72 92 71 87 / 20 20 10 30
HUTCHINSON 71 94 68 85 / 20 10 20 20
NEWTON 71 92 69 85 / 20 10 20 20
ELDORADO 71 89 72 87 / 30 20 10 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 72 89 72 90 / 30 20 10 30
RUSSELL 69 97 63 84 / 10 10 20 20
GREAT BEND 69 96 64 84 / 10 10 20 20
SALINA 71 95 64 84 / 10 10 20 20
MCPHERSON 71 94 66 85 / 10 10 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 72 86 73 90 / 30 20 10 30
CHANUTE 71 86 73 88 / 30 20 10 30
IOLA 71 86 72 88 / 30 20 10 30
PARSONS-KPPF 72 86 73 90 / 30 20 10 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
900 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY AND WILL PASS SLOWLY THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY...WITH
VIGOROUS WAVES MOVING EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH A SHEAR ZONE OFF THE EAST COAST. ACARS 400-250MB WIND
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 50-70KT WESTERLY JET FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY EAST OVER THE DELMARVA. A 80-130KT JET EXTENDS ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1020MB
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT HAS
STALLED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS SINKING SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
DIURNAL CUMULUS HAVE DISSIPATED AS JET AXIS CLEARED CIRRUS TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PRESIDE WITH
PATCHES OF CIRRUS OVERNIGHT FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH
WINDS ONCE AGAIN DECOUPLING LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROPPING
BELOW 5F. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TENDS TO
REMAIN STUBBORN TO SCOUR POST FRONTAL. ADDITIONALLY...WITH RIVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...ANTICIPATE BEST PROBABILITY OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ALONG RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES.
A REFRESHING NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S OUT
WEST...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO BAY. CITIES SHOULD BOTTOM
CLOSER TO 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SFC HIPRES TRANSLATES EWD...WITH SLY LOW LVL FLOW RESUMING BY
AFTN. CONTD WARM AND DRY FCST THRU FRI AS RDGG ALOFT BEGINS TO
DVLP.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WEAK RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THIS WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. MAX
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE METROPOLITAN AREAS AS WELL
AS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PASS SLOWLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.
HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TIMING IS STILL TRICKY THIS FAR
OUT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS SUNDAY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CITIES...THEN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAINLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY. AS FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...SO IT WOULD BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THERMODYNAMICS. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF
DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO
CLIMO. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW
WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS A FEW
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A
RESULT...POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ALONG RIVERS. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
ALONG THE BAY NEAR BWI/MTN...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE POTOMAC RIVER VALLEY NEAR DCA UNDER FEW-SCT
HIGH BASED CUMULUS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE TERMINALS SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY PASS THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUBVFR CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SLIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PRESSES THROUGH...THEN A RETURN TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW BY MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION.
NO FLAGS EXPECTED SATURDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASORSA
NEAR TERM...ROGOWSKI
SHORT TERM...KRAMAR
LONG TERM...LASORSA
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI/LASORSA
MARINE...ROGOWSKI/LASORSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1210 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008
UPDATED TO ADD DENSE FOG ADVY HEADLINE FOR THE KEWEENAW.
.UPDATE...
SHRA/ISOLD TS OVER THE SCNTRL AND E ARE WANING WITH DEPARTURE OF RRQ
DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING 100KT H3 JET MAX MOVING FM SE ONTARIO INTO SRN
QUEBEC AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF AS DEPICTED ON THE 22Z TAMDAR
SDNG FM HIB/00Z RAOB FM INL UNDER SHRTWV RDGING MOVING INTO MN.
BUMPED UP FCST COVG OF FOG TNGT WITH DRYING ALF ABV LINGERING LLVL
MSTR IN PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING/LGT WINDS TO THE N OF WARM FNT
TO THE S. APRCH OF WARM FNT/HIER H85 DWPTS LATE TNGT MAY CAUSE
SHRA/TSRA TO THE S AND W TO IMPACT THE WRN ZNS...BUT MAINTAINED JUST
LO CHC POPS TO REFLECT FOCUS OF BEST LLJ FORCING REMAINING WELL TO
THE W THRU 12Z IN ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER FORCING MECHANISM WITH DNVA/
H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV RDG TO THE W DOMINATING
THE FA.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT IN CNTRL WI WITH MID 80S TEMPS FM
WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO GREEN BAY. MEANWHILE...DUE TO ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...TEMPS HAVE REMAINED IN THE UPR 50S
OVR KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO THE LWR-MID 70S OVR REST OF UPR MI. BY
FAR...MAIN SHOW AS FAR AS CONVECTION GOES IS WELL TO THE SW OF HERE
OVR SE MN INTO SW WI...FEEDING OFF OF UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 SFC TD.
OVR UPR MI...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PRETTY ISOLD BUT HAVE BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT ALONG TIGHT H85-H7 TEMP GRADIENT FM KEWEENAW INTO ERN LK
SUPERIOR. NOT MUCH THUNDER AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS SUFFERING THUS
FAR DUE TO LACK OF HIGHER H85 THETA-E INFLUX. MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM
FOR PCPN ALONG THE FRONTS ALOFT IS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR JET
OVR ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS EAST
HALF OF UPR MI ATTM. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVR
DAKOTAS AND MN...SO NOT MUCH IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...THAT
COULD CHANGE BY THIS EVENING AS INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND MUCH
MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY INTERSECTS UPR TROUGH EMERGING FM NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
SPC MESOANALYSIS SITE INDICATES SWATH OF INCREASING ELEVATED CAPE
AND EVEN SFC BASED CAPE NOSING UP INTO SCNTRL UPR MI. THIS
INSTABILITY COULD BE TAPPED INTO THIS EVENING AS LARGE SCALE LIFT
FM H85-H7 FGEN AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ONTARIO JET SLIDING
SE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH STRONG CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH
THINK THIS POSSIBILITY IS SLIM. OTHERWISE...TRENDED FM SCT POPS TO
BEGIN THE EVENING TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AND UPR JET. DID KEEP CHANCE POPS OVR FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AS H85 FRONT REFORMS OVR MN INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
H85 FLOW INTO THE FRONT ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...SO SEEMS LIKE BETTER
CHANCES OF PCPN WILL HOLD OFF TIL FRIDAY. YET...IF A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OVR NRN MN THIS EVENING...H85-H3 THICKNESSES
WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND FAR WRN CWA LATE TONIGHT. ON INTO FRI...KEYED ON
POSITION OF H85 FRONT FOR BEST POPS. BELIEVE THIS WARM FRONT ALOFT
WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE PASSING NW OF
LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN UPTICK OF H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND H85
WINDS INCREASE TO 40KT BY LATE AFTN. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO RISES
SIGNIFICANTLY (AOA 2000 J/KG) DUE TO INCREASED H85 T/TD. FARTHER
EAST...LIGHTER H85 WINDS AND DECLINE IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF ANY LIFTING MECHANISMS JUSTIFY KEEPING FORECAST DRY OVR ERN
HALF OF CWA.
ADDITIONALLY...A COUPLE OTHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST BESIDES
POP/WX. FIRST...BELIEVE A GOOD SETUP EXISTS FOR POTENTIAL OF
MARINE/UPSLOPE FOG ON KEWEENAW LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING DUE
TO EAST FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF SFC WARM FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 80S OVR WEST HALF OF CWA WITH SOUTHERLY BLYR
WINDS AND H85 TEMPS INTO THE UPR TEENS. TEMPS COULD BE QUITE A BIT
LWR OVR KEWEENAW AS WARM FRONT CLEARS THERE THE LATEST. HAVE MID 70S
RIGHT NOW...BUT IF FRONT SLOWS...TEMPS COULD REMAIN IN THE 60S OVR
THE KEWEENAW. TRIED TO SHOW THIS TEMP GRADIENT IN THE GRIDS AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. AT 00Z FRIDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO...WITH THE COLD FRONT ONLY INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE OF THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK REMAINS THE SAME AS THE
MORNING ISSUANCE...WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. IN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA. EVEN IF SURFACE CONVECTION DOES NOT OCCUR...STRONG 850 MB
LOW-LEVEL JET IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE EVENT...BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 KNOTS. WITH
DRIER AIR AT MID-LEVELS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY WITH 850MB WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS.
SEVERE HAIL SHOULD ALSO STILL REMAIN A THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH
FREEZING HEIGHTS OF 14 TO 15 THOUSAND FEET...THIS MAY NOT BE AS MUCH
OF A POSSIBILITY. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE NAM QPF FIELD FALLING APART ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.P. ALL LOCATIONS IN THE U.P. HAVE LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT HEAVY RAINS MIGHT NOT BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT EITHER.
GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT ALL
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT MOVING OUT OF CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS WEAK
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FALL SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND ISOLATED.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN
24 HOURS AGO WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
THROUGH ZONAL FLOW. GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF...AND THEREFORE TRIES TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
A BIT MORE QUICKLY. HPC PREFERS SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH HAS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS HUDSON BAY
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT MAKING LITTLE
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. PREVIOUS
FORECAST ONLY INCLUDED POPS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THIS WILL BE
EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS FLIP-FLOPPED FOR COLD FRONT POSITIONING ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS NOW THE SLOWER OF THE TWO MODELS. NO
CHANGES MADE WITH THIS NEW MODEL DATA.
&&
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF FM NRN MN/WRN LK SUP WL END ANY LINGERING
SHRA AND BREAK UP MUCH OF THE MID CLD THIS EVNG AT BOTH SITES. WITH
LINGERING LLVL MSTR AND NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO DVLP AT
BOTH SITES BLO THE DRYING ALF. SUSPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS TO LIFR
OVERNGT AT CMX WITH DVLPG ELY UPSLOPE FLOW BTWN WARM FNT TO THE S
AND HI PRES OVER SRN ONTARIO. BUT EVEN AT SAW...THE VSBY/CIG SHOULD
SINK TO IFR. ONSET OF DAYTIME HTG WL CAUSE THE FOG/LO CLD TO LIFT ON
FRI MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THE AFTN. BUT SHARPENING
PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING HI PRES TO THE E AND LO PRES TRACKING
ACRS SRN CAN/DAYTIME MIXING WL CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVY FOR E-CNTRL LK SUP AND ADJOINING NSH ZNS THRU
15Z FRI TO REFLECT LO VSBYS OBSVD BY VARIOUS WEBCAMS FM THE KEWEENAW
TO MQT AND SVRL SHIP OBS UNDER AREA OF LO CLD APRNT ON VSBY SAT
IMAGERY. SFC DWPTS ARE WELL ABV OPEN LK WATER TEMPS (ARND 4C).
WINDY PERIOD COMING SOON TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH WINDS UNDER 20 KTS
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE STAYING OVER OR CLOSE BY TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
ON FRIDAY...SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THE ERN 2/3 OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 30 KT WINDS BY EVENING. GALE FORCE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET OFF THE SURFACE THANKS TO A
VERY STRONG WARM PUSH AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER TO THE WEST FRI NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN. SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT RIGHT NOW
STILL LOOK TO TOP OUT AT 30 KT...BUT FUTURE FORECASTS WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR GALES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE SAT NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT WIND DIRECTIONS A BIT MORE
TO THE NW...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST 30 KT WINDS. ON SUNDAY...WINDS
SHOULD START DIMINISHING AS THE LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WEAKENS
AND LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...WINDS BELOW 25 KTS
ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF UPPER MI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ243>249-264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...TAG
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
915 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008
.UPDATE...
SHRA/ISOLD TS OVER THE SCNTRL AND E ARE WANING WITH DEPARTURE OF RRQ
DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING 100KT H3 JET MAX MOVING FM SE ONTARIO INTO SRN
QUEBEC AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF AS DEPICTED ON THE 22Z TAMDAR
SDNG FM HIB/00Z RAOB FM INL UNDER SHRTWV RDGING MOVING INTO MN.
BUMPED UP FCST COVG OF FOG TNGT WITH DRYING ALF ABV LINGERING LLVL
MSTR IN PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING/LGT WINDS TO THE N OF WARM FNT
TO THE S. APRCH OF WARM FNT/HIER H85 DWPTS LATE TNGT MAY CAUSE
SHRA/TSRA TO THE S AND W TO IMPACT THE WRN ZNS...BUT MAINTAINED JUST
LO CHC POPS TO REFLECT FOCUS OF BEST LLJ FORCING REMAINING WELL TO
THE W THRU 12Z IN ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER FORCING MECHANISM WITH DNVA/
H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV RDG TO THE W DOMINATING
THE FA.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT IN CNTRL WI WITH MID 80S TEMPS FM
WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO GREEN BAY. MEANWHILE...DUE TO ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...TEMPS HAVE REMAINED IN THE UPR 50S
OVR KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO THE LWR-MID 70S OVR REST OF UPR MI. BY
FAR...MAIN SHOW AS FAR AS CONVECTION GOES IS WELL TO THE SW OF HERE
OVR SE MN INTO SW WI...FEEDING OFF OF UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 SFC TD.
OVR UPR MI...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PRETTY ISOLD BUT HAVE BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT ALONG TIGHT H85-H7 TEMP GRADIENT FM KEWEENAW INTO ERN LK
SUPERIOR. NOT MUCH THUNDER AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS SUFFERING THUS
FAR DUE TO LACK OF HIGHER H85 THETA-E INFLUX. MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM
FOR PCPN ALONG THE FRONTS ALOFT IS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR JET
OVR ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS EAST
HALF OF UPR MI ATTM. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVR
DAKOTAS AND MN...SO NOT MUCH IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...THAT
COULD CHANGE BY THIS EVENING AS INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND MUCH
MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY INTERSECTS UPR TROUGH EMERGING FM NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
SPC MESOANALYSIS SITE INDICATES SWATH OF INCREASING ELEVATED CAPE
AND EVEN SFC BASED CAPE NOSING UP INTO SCNTRL UPR MI. THIS
INSTABILITY COULD BE TAPPED INTO THIS EVENING AS LARGE SCALE LIFT
FM H85-H7 FGEN AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ONTARIO JET SLIDING
SE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH STRONG CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH
THINK THIS POSSIBILITY IS SLIM. OTHERWISE...TRENDED FM SCT POPS TO
BEGIN THE EVENING TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AND UPR JET. DID KEEP CHANCE POPS OVR FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AS H85 FRONT REFORMS OVR MN INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
H85 FLOW INTO THE FRONT ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...SO SEEMS LIKE BETTER
CHANCES OF PCPN WILL HOLD OFF TIL FRIDAY. YET...IF A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OVR NRN MN THIS EVENING...H85-H3 THICKNESSES
WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND FAR WRN CWA LATE TONIGHT. ON INTO FRI...KEYED ON
POSITION OF H85 FRONT FOR BEST POPS. BELIEVE THIS WARM FRONT ALOFT
WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE PASSING NW OF
LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN UPTICK OF H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND H85
WINDS INCREASE TO 40KT BY LATE AFTN. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO RISES
SIGNIFICANTLY (AOA 2000 J/KG) DUE TO INCREASED H85 T/TD. FARTHER
EAST...LIGHTER H85 WINDS AND DECLINE IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF ANY LIFTING MECHANISMS JUSTIFY KEEPING FORECAST DRY OVR ERN
HALF OF CWA.
ADDITIONALLY...A COUPLE OTHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST BESIDES
POP/WX. FIRST...BELIEVE A GOOD SETUP EXISTS FOR POTENTIAL OF
MARINE/UPSLOPE FOG ON KEWEENAW LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING DUE
TO EAST FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF SFC WARM FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 80S OVR WEST HALF OF CWA WITH SOUTHERLY BLYR
WINDS AND H85 TEMPS INTO THE UPR TEENS. TEMPS COULD BE QUITE A BIT
LWR OVR KEWEENAW AS WARM FRONT CLEARS THERE THE LATEST. HAVE MID 70S
RIGHT NOW...BUT IF FRONT SLOWS...TEMPS COULD REMAIN IN THE 60S OVR
THE KEWEENAW. TRIED TO SHOW THIS TEMP GRADIENT IN THE GRIDS AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. AT 00Z FRIDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO...WITH THE COLD FRONT ONLY INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE OF THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK REMAINS THE SAME AS THE
MORNING ISSUANCE...WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. IN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA. EVEN IF SURFACE CONVECTION DOES NOT OCCUR...STRONG 850 MB
LOW-LEVEL JET IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE EVENT...BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 KNOTS. WITH
DRIER AIR AT MID-LEVELS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY WITH 850MB WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS.
SEVERE HAIL SHOULD ALSO STILL REMAIN A THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH
FREEZING HEIGHTS OF 14 TO 15 THOUSAND FEET...THIS MAY NOT BE AS MUCH
OF A POSSIBILITY. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE NAM QPF FIELD FALLING APART ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.P. ALL LOCATIONS IN THE U.P. HAVE LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT HEAVY RAINS MIGHT NOT BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT EITHER.
GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT ALL
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT MOVING OUT OF CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS WEAK
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FALL SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND ISOLATED.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN
24 HOURS AGO WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
THROUGH ZONAL FLOW. GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF...AND THEREFORE TRIES TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
A BIT MORE QUICKLY. HPC PREFERS SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH HAS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS HUDSON BAY
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT MAKING LITTLE
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. PREVIOUS
FORECAST ONLY INCLUDED POPS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THIS WILL BE
EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS FLIP-FLOPPED FOR COLD FRONT POSITIONING ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS NOW THE SLOWER OF THE TWO MODELS. NO
CHANGES MADE WITH THIS NEW MODEL DATA.
&&
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF FM NRN MN/WRN LK SUP WL END ANY LINGERING
SHRA AND BREAK UP MUCH OF THE MID CLD THIS EVNG AT BOTH SITES. WITH
LINGERING LLVL MSTR AND NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO DVLP AT
BOTH SITES BLO THE DRYING ALF. SUSPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS TO LIFR
OVERNGT AT CMX WITH DVLPG ELY UPSLOPE FLOW BTWN WARM FNT TO THE S
AND HI PRES OVER SRN ONTARIO. BUT EVEN AT SAW...THE VSBY/CIG SHOULD
SINK TO IFR. ONSET OF DAYTIME HTG WL CAUSE THE FOG/LO CLD TO LIFT ON
FRI MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THE AFTN. BUT SHARPENING
PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING HI PRES TO THE E AND LO PRES TRACKING
ACRS SRN CAN/DAYTIME MIXING WL CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVY FOR E-CNTRL LK SUP AND ADJOINING NSH ZNS THRU
15Z FRI TO REFLECT LO VSBYS OBSVD BY VARIOUS WEBCAMS FM THE KEWEENAW
TO MQT AND SVRL SHIP OBS UNDER AREA OF LO CLD APRNT ON VSBY SAT
IMAGERY. SFC DWPTS ARE WELL ABV OPEN LK WATER TEMPS (ARND 4C).
WINDY PERIOD COMING SOON TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH WINDS UNDER 20 KTS
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE STAYING OVER OR CLOSE BY TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
ON FRIDAY...SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THE ERN 2/3 OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 30 KT WINDS BY EVENING. GALE FORCE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET OFF THE SURFACE THANKS TO A
VERY STRONG WARM PUSH AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER TO THE WEST FRI NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN. SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT RIGHT NOW
STILL LOOK TO TOP OUT AT 30 KT...BUT FUTURE FORECASTS WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR GALES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE SAT NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT WIND DIRECTIONS A BIT MORE
TO THE NW...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST 30 KT WINDS. ON SUNDAY...WINDS
SHOULD START DIMINISHING AS THE LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WEAKENS
AND LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...WINDS BELOW 25 KTS
ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF UPPER MI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ243>249-264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...TAG
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1059 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008
.UPDATE...MORNING SYNOPSIS...13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT LYING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OH/CENTRAL IN/SOUTHERN IL. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
JAMES BAY...SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE VICINITY...ONE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...AND
ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE HEADING INTO NORTHWEST WI. 12Z APX SOUNDING
EXHIBITING A 100MB DEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE 800MB...MID
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT DRYING
AS WELL PER 12Z GRB SOUNDING AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS OUT OF
SOUTHERN UPPER. SOME SCATTERED CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER...WITH A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF CU/SC OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
UPPER.
ALTHOUGH WEAK SHORT WAVE AND MID LEVEL COOLING SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A PROBLEM AS
FAR AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT GOES. MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH
PER SATELLITE TRENDS WITH BROKEN-OVERCAST SKIES.
JPB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008/
SYNOPSIS...COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW INTO THE NORTH WOODS
TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO BRING A WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UP THROUGH THE REGION INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM
DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR ARRIVES YET AGAIN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...SFC/RUC/SATELLITE/RADAR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWING COLD FRONT NOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE SE CWA. SFC DEW
POINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT...AND CONTINUE
TO FALL...KNOCKING THE MUGGY AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT
HAS ALSO RESULTED IN A LOWER DECK OF 3500-6000FT BROKEN STRATO
CUMULUS. THE FRONT WAS UNABLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A FEW
SPOTS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. WELL TO THE NORTH...ACROSS
ONTARIO...THERE IS A LARGER AREA OF STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS.
TODAY...3500-6000 DECK OF STRATO CUMULUS WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG
THIS MORNING...AS IT IS RATHER THIN TO BEGIN WITH...AND THE DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
RATHER FAST...AND THE DRIEST OF AIR WILL ACTUALLY START TO DEPART
BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT ARE SEEN
UPSTREAM. ONE OF THESE WILL TRY AND MAKE IT INTO FAR NW LOWER
AROUND THE MANISTEE AND GTV BAY REGIONS TOWARD EVENING...WITH H5
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -16C RANGE. MOISTURE IS RATHER SCARCE...BUT
ACROSS ND/MN YESTERDAY...THE SAME SYNOPTIC SETUP ALLOWED FOR A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO POP OFF. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW...BUT WITH AROUND 50 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAYBE ONE
OR TWO COULD BE SEEN HEADING INTO THE EVENING.
TONIGHT...ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND IN THE EVENING WILL BE TIED
TO DAYTIME WARMTH TO SOME DEGREE. PLUS...MODEST SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF A DECENT ONTARIO SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BRING ANY ACTIVITY
TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS IN THE FORECAST
SINCE LACK OF MOISTURE OUGHT TO RESULT IN ANY SHOWER COVERAGE WELL
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NEED SOME
ADJUSTMENT BY THE DAY CREW. AFTERNOON TD`S WILL MIX OUT TO THE MID
UPPER 40S IN MANY AREAS...AWAY FROM AN ONSHORE FLOW. THE SFC HIGH
IS A BIT SLOWER IN ARRIVING...AND WE DO HAVE SOME NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO HELP KEEP HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKELY A TOUCH LESS COOL
THAN THOSE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS THAT WILL DECOUPLE. WILL GO WITH
SOME UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BEING RATHER COMMON. SHOULD FEEL ALOT
MORE REFRESHING COMPARED TO THE HUMID AIR MASS WE WERE IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT....THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...THIS
FEATURE PULLS EAST AND ALLOWS A WEAKISH SRLY RETURN FLOW TO
DEVELOP. THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BE MORE ESTABLISHED BY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
DEEPENING OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA. A WARM FRONT
DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM...EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO BE BROUGHT IN
OUT OF THE CLOSED OFF GULF...AND BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN ANY REAL SOLID CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE WARM FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TRY AND SPARK SOME ACTIVITY...BUT AT
MOST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE INSISTENT THAT A BIT OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FROM A PATTERN
RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES LOOK TO BE TOO FAR
WEST FOR AN ADDITION TO THE FORECAST ATTM. FROM A SEVERE
STANDPOINT...EVEN THOUGH AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD WIND UP BEING NO
MORE THAN SCATTERED...WHILE INSTABILITY ON THE LOW SIDE...BOTH DUE
TO MINIMAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...THE QUICKISH WINDS ALOFT RESULT
IN 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40KT RANGE. WITH
LLJ EXPECTED TO RESIDE MORE OUT IN THE MN REGION...COULD SEE AN
MCS TRYING TO PRESS INTO THE MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
NORTH WOODS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO WEAKEN ANY ACTIVITY AS IT ROLLS
THROUGH.
FRIDAY ONWARD...BASIC GIST HERE IS...WHATEVER SCATTERED ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS ALONG AND NORTH FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WORKING INTO MANITOBA. MAIN MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION FOR
THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND A WARM AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES IN.
HAVE HELD ONTO SMALL 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR EASTERN UPPER/FAR NRN
LOWER ATTM...BUT BY FRIDAY EVENING...THINGS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
DRY/QUIET. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...WE WILL BE
LOOKING FOR THE INITIAL COOL FRONT/PRE-MAIN FRONTAL TROUGH TO
ARRIVE. AGAIN..SEEMINGLY A LACK OF MOISTURE FOR THIS CONVERGENT
REGION TO WORK WITH. FEEL THAT A SCATTERED BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL ROLL THROUGH HERE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 80-90KT UPPER JET. QUITE THE
DRIER AIR MASS THEN SWEEPS IN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SW WINDS
POSSIBLE. POSSIBLE EARLY WEEKEND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS? NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THAT SO MUCH. THE MAIN COOL FRONT
ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH LIKELY CONCERNS WITH STRATO
CUMULUS. AIR LOOKS RATHER CHILLY WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
+6C TO +8C RANGE. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS ALL PANS OUT...BUT
TEMPERATURES Y THEN MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. SMD
AVIATION... /ISSUED 707 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008/
SFC COOL FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH ALL TAF SITES AND THE
THIN STRATO CUMULUS CLOUD DECK BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SCATTERED OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS LAID OUT
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL SWEEP DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
INTERACT WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER POPPING UP
AROUND TVC LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER ...SCANT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP COVERAGE SO SMALL THAT IT IS NOT WORTHY
OF A MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST IN
THE TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMD
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
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