000 AXNT20 KNHC 160528 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE JAN 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N24W 3N38W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-32W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 7W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FOR THE PAST FEW NIGHTS HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM A WEAK 1018 MB LOW OVER S MISSISSIPPI ALONG 26N94W TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 20N97W RETURNING N AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 25N W OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE FRONT AS WELL. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM REMAINS INLAND EXTENDING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE DESERT SW. THE GULF IS ACTUALLY DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS IN THE W ATLC. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS FEEDING THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W GULF. A 20 TO 30 DEG TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DELINEATE THE FRONT BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM OVER CUBA TO 29N BETWEEN 79W-83W. THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC STILL EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SE US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO E OF 87W. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 12N. A SURGE OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWERS. STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N78W AND COVERS THE ATLC W OF 60W. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W FROM 24N-29N W OF 79W. CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N54W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING SW OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N53W TO 27N49W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 43W-52W. E/W SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC WITH A 1029 MB HIGH ANCHORED OVER BERMUDA AND A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N42W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED DEEP IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC. THE AFRICAN DUST PLUM IS DISPERSING AS IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD W OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 50W. $$ WALLACE