####018005596#### FXUS66 KSEW 151655 AFDSEW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 950 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009 .SYNOPSIS...SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY MIDDAY AS A STRONG FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM...COMPLEX SYSTEM PRODUCING A MIX BAG OF WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING...INCLUDING RAIN AND SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS. WITH THE STRONG SFC LOW OFFSHORE...WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ARE BACKING TO E/NE WITH SNOW EVERETT SOUTHWARD...AND PRECIP HEADING FARTHER NORTH. SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL LOWLANDS AREAS WITH A TREND OF SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HOOD CANAL WHERE HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL FALL...THUS ADDED A WINTER STORM WARNING. SPOTTER REPORT NEAR TUMWATER REPORTS SNOW CHANGING BACK OVER TO RAIN. AND OBS AT ASTORIA AND KELSO ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTH. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS THE WINDS AS THE STRONG FRONT HEADS INLAND. VERY DISTINCT SFC LOW SHOWN ON THE VIS WITH THE CENTER SW OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. THE FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE INTERIOR AROUND 20-21Z WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TACOMA NORTHWARD...WITH WINDS EASING LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW EVENTUALLY PUSHES FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN B.C. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE POLAR JET LIES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. 33 .LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODEL RUNS EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT THE DIFFERENCES WILL JUST BE IN NOT IF BUT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE GET. NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS HAS RETURNED TO A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION THAT IT WAS SHOWING A FEW RUNS AGO. THE EURO MODEL IS ALSO WET BUT HAS THE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION CENTERED OVER THE NORTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. AT THIS POINT CATEGORICAL POPS ON WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK GOOD. BEYOND WEDNESDAY BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. THE EURO HAS GIVEN UP ON THE RIDGE IDEA OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH THE RIDGE NOW OVER THE ROCKIES. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH WATERY SYSTEMS SPINNING OUT OF THE TROUGH. MODELS INCONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURES AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE POPS ALONE FOR NOW. FELTON && .AVIATION...A STRONG UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FAIRLY DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER...TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING...ABOVE THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. ANTICIPATE THE SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO TRANSITION TO RAIN...FROM S TO N...AFTER 18Z. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1-2K FT RANGE TIL ABOUT 21Z...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY NEAR 300 FT WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT INTO THE 2-4K FT RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR AFTER 21Z. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE BACKED TO A MORE ELY DIRECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN BECOME SW BEHIND IT. BY 00Z MON...MOST SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. KSEA...-SN OR -RASN WILL PERSIST THRU THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL BE NEAR 015...OCCASIONALLY DOWN TO 400 FT WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. VSBYS WILL GENERALLY VARY BETWEEN 1-3SM THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELY AT 9-13 KT. AFTER 19Z...WINDS WILL VEER TO SLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT...PARTICULARLY AFTER 21Z OR WITH THE FROPA. THE PRECIP WILL ALSO CHANGE OVER TO RA...WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO 5SM. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO NEAR 4K FT BETWEEN 21Z AND 24Z. && .MARINE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUE. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HOOD CANAL AREA UNTIL NOON TODAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST FROM NOON TIL 8 PM PDT TODAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS UNTIL NOON TODAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES TIL 5 PM TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS FROM NOON UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT. PZ...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS. $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE ####018006638#### FXUS64 KCRP 151656 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1156 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009 .DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL JET'S RRQ IS CURRENTLY IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR E PORTIONS OF S TX AND A TROPICAL CONNECTION FROM THE PAC IS STILL STREAMING OVRHEAD WITH A VORT MX TO THE SW OF THE AREA MOVG NE...THE UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT TO SHIFT E AND N...THUS PLACING THE BETTER DYNAMICS FARTHER E WITH TIME. IN ADDITION...AN INVERTED TROF AXIS LOCATED OFFSHORE IS A BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED THE POPS ACROSS THE LAND AREAS BUT AM MAINTAINING CHC POPS FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND CATEGORICAL POPS OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE SFC TROF...FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO HAVE TRENDED THE 00Z TO 06Z POPS DOWN AS A RESULT. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009/ DISCUSSION...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE E CWA DUE TO AMPLE MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT MOVG ACROSS S TX. RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NE CWA NOW EXITING THE AREA. AM EXPECTING INCREASED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA OVR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST EXCEPT TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECAST. SEE ALSO THE AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSRA'S ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF S TX AND TOWARD THE COAST DUE TO A DISTURBANCE MOVG ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHRA'S RATHER THAN TSRA. HAVE UPDATED ALI...VCT AND CRP TAFS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SHRA'S AND CB'S. HAVE MENTIONED TSRA IN VCT'S TAF DUE TO PROXIMITY TO BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009/ DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION... ANTICIPATE MVFR CONDTIONS TODAY KCRP AND KVCT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND OCCASIONAL RAIN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 22Z WHEN RAIN TAPERS OFF. FARTHER WEST...EXPECT THE POSSIBLITY OF MVFR CIGS IN AREAS OF RAIN AT KALI...WITH VFR CONDTIONS TODAY AT KLRD. AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE THE MAIN PORTION OF THE RAINFALL BETWEEN 14Z AND 01Z...WITH NO RAINFALL MENTIONED AT KLRD. DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS MEAN THAT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AOB 06Z. AT THIS TIME...LOWEST VISIBILITIES FORECAST ARE 1SM AT KALI BY 09Z...2SM AT KVCT AROUND 08Z...AND 4SM AT KCRP AOB 09Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN ISSUE IS THE RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HOW WARM IT WILL GET TODAY BASED ON HOW QUICK RAIN MOVES ACROSS AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. ECHOES WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR OVER THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND AS JET COMES CLOSER...DO EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD EAST...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST WHERE MOISTURE IS BEST (CATAGORICAL POPS IN GULFMEX) THEN DECREASE OVER AREAS WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED. THUS...HAVE A PRETTY GOOD POP GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TODAY (80S IN GULFMEX AND 20S OUT NW). STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON (LIKE YESTERDAY) OUT WEST...SO WENT WITH SOME CLEARING AND THEREFORE WHERE AREAS GET SOME SUN THINGS WILL WARM UP WHILE NEAR COAST THINGS SHOULD REMAIN COOL. THUS...BIG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES TOO. EXPECT RAIN TO END BY MIDNIGHT BUT DID KEEP SOME SMALL POPS IN THE GULF. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE WET GROUNDS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG...BUT IF WINDS UP ENOUGH FROM THE NORTH (I.E. MORE THAN A FEW MPH)...DRIER AIR COULD HELP LIMIT IT THUS FOR NOW ONLY WENT WITH PATCHY FOG. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN FOR A CHANGE ON MONDAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...STAYED CLOSER TO THE MAV-MOS NUMBERS (AND UNDERCUT THEM IN SOME LOCATIONS) RATHER THAN THE WARMER NAM-MOS. MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AS UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHES TODAY...EXPECT RAIN TO BEGIN TO ENCOMPASS WATERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE TODAY WITH STILL A CHANCE FOR PRECIP MAINLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND ENDS THE RAIN. GENERALLY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN LEADING TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES PROGRESSIVELY WARMING WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. SFC ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH MIDWEEK. PRESSURES LOWER OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE LEADING TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. SWLY WINDS IN THE 850MB LAYER WILL ALLOW THE BULK OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO REMAIN DRY. RIDGE DOES AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE. GFS INDICATES NORTHERN TIER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ATTENDANT WEAK SFC FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. ECMWF BRINGS THIS FEATURE ONLY TO THE RED RIVER THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL ELECT TO THROW TOKEN 10 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THURSDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCE MIGRATING THROUGH THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY. BOUNDARY LATER MOISTURE DOES INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE BUT THEIR SEEMS TO LACK OF DYNAMICS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW OF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WITH THIS WEAK PERTURBATION NEXT WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WILL HARDLY PUT A DENT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCC/70 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 55 48 76 57 79 / 70 30 10 10 0 VICTORIA 56 46 76 53 79 / 60 20 10 0 10 LAREDO 66 52 83 61 86 / 20 10 10 0 0 ALICE 57 48 78 52 82 / 50 20 10 0 0 ROCKPORT 55 50 74 60 77 / 70 30 10 10 0 COTULLA 67 45 81 53 85 / 20 10 10 0 0 KINGSVILLE 58 47 75 53 82 / 60 20 10 0 0 NAVY CORPUS 58 51 73 60 76 / 70 30 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ TE/81...SHORT TERM JV/71...LONG TERM ####018001895#### FXUS63 KGLD 151657 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1057 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2009 .UPDATE... 1048 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2009 FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA WITH ONLY REMAINING FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE DAY BEING POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN CWA. WHILE MORNING RAOBS SHOW DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT AIRMASSES ACROSS THE AREA AND WOULD SUPPORT A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT IN AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WINDS STILL APPEAR TO BE TO LIGHT. VERY DRY AIR TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO..DROPPING RH VALUES TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT...BUT UNLESS UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS BEGIN TO SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS DO NOT PLAN ANY FIRE WEATHER WARNINGS. JRM && .DISCUSSION... 1209 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2009 FOR THE PERIODS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LENDING SUPPORT TO UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURED THE EXPECTED SCENARIO WELL WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 70 TODAY WITH A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PLUMMET BOTH DAYS, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERION FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES. && .AVIATION... 1048 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2009 FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SOME SMALL CONCERN THAT FOG COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST CWA IMPACTING MCK AREA AFTER 06Z...BUT WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY THINK DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL LIMIT ANY POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ ####018003484#### FXUS63 KLSX 151658 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1158 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009 .UPDATE... /1156 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009/ HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES IN AN ATTEMPT TO REFLECT SLOW NE PUSH OF CLOUDS INTO S IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO BOOSTED TEMPS... SPCLY IN OUR S IL COUNTIES... DUE TO THE DELAY IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS. TRUETT && .DISCUSSION... /307 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009/ CLOUDS DID NOT DEVELOP YESTERDAY AS ANTICIPATED THEREFORE MUCH OF THE CWA ENDED UP WARMER THAN FCST. TODAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FCST ONCE AGAIN AS MODELS PROG CLOUDS DEVELOPING AS UPA LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. COMPLICATING THE FCST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SLY TODAY AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EWD. AREAS IN KS REACHED MID 50S YESTERDAY EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER. AREA OF SHRA ACROSS SW MO DRIED UP AS IS APPROACHED THE CWA THIS MORNING ENCOUNTERING THE DRY AIR. CUT OFF UPA LOW EVIDENT IN WV IMAGE WILL APPROACH THE CWA THIS AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA AS UPA LOW MOVES EWD. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. HAVE SLOWED THE WARM UP A LITTLE HAS MODELS HAVE SLOWED WAA OVER THE REGION. STILL APPEARS TUES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH STRONG WAA AND SLY WINDS. THE SLY WINDS WILL HELP ADVECT LOW LVL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYS ON WED. 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PLACING THE FNT JUST N OF THE CWA BY 12Z WED. GIVEN THE STRONG LLJ THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH AN EML EVIDENT IN FCST SOUNDINGS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR TUES NIGHT. WITH UPA ENERGY REMAINING FURTHER NWD...DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE POPS YET. WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN LATER FCSTS. MED RANGE MODELS AGREE WELL PLACING THE CDFNT ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR AROUND 00Z THURS AS UPA TROF DIGS INTO THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS FOR WED INTO WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...DID LOWER POPS ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE CDFNT PULLING OUT OF THE AREA. BEYOND WED...BELIEVE THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON FCST AS GFS APPEARS TO PUSH THE CDFNT TOO FAR S BEFORE RETURNING AS A WRMFNT. THAT SAID...DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO PREV FCST BEYOND WED AS DIFFERENCES IN MODELS WUD NOT HAVE AN AFFECT ON GOING FCST. INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES S OF THE CDFNT ON WED. WITH 850H TEMPS PUSHING 12C...THINK LOWER 70S IS A CONSERVATIVE FCST IF MODELS HAVE CDFNT TIMING CLOSE. LOWERED TEMPS FOR THURS MORNING AND THURS AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AGAIN...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS BEYOND THURSDAY. TILLY && .AVIATION... /605 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009/ FOR THE 12Z TAFS... MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NCNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NE AND LOWER TO NEAR 5 KFT TODAY. A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS KFAM AS OF 4 AM BUT HAS SINCE DSSPTD. SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR EITHER STL METRO TAF SITE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE SHORT WAVE MAY GENERATE SPRINKLES OR ISLD LGHT SHWRS THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. LIMITED COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. WINDS BECOME SWLY MONDAY AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR. MILLER && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX