FXUS62 KTBW 060641
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
241 AM EDT SUN JUN 6 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...GFS STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH ETA
WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING WEAK 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO
MONDAY...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH IT.  THIS WILL HOLD
THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.  LOOKS LIKE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT
NORTH ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
CAUSING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO FINALLY SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION.  THEREFORE...HAVE MADE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY AND MONDAY AND
SCATTERED POPS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SAT)...SFC RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON WED WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH SITTING OFF THE EAST COAST.  LIGHTNING
CLIMO HAS HIGHER POPS ALONG THE NATURE COAST FOR THIS FLOW REGIME...
AND WILL MAINTAIN SCT CATEGORY BUT RAISE POPS THERE TO 50%.

SFC AND UPPER HIGHS SLOWLY SHIFT S THRU THE PERIOD.  05/00Z EXTENDED
GFS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE THAN PREVIOUS RUN...WITH STRONGEST SFC LOW
NOW FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE WESTERN OK/KS BORDER ON SAT INSTEAD OF
OVER THE WESTERN GULF.  A TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO 10 TO 15 KT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER AREA ON SAT...AND CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS
WELL.

AS HIGHS ARE SETTLING SOUTH STILL EXPECTING DEEP MOISTURE OVER AREA
TO SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS EACH DAY.  WILL KEEP DAYS 5-7 AT 40 POPS AS
SHOULD RIDGE AXIS SHIFT INTO THE SRN FA...POPS WILL DECREASE.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AND
MONDAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE STRONGER NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE.  WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR
THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE RIDGE SETS
UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.  NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...BUT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 74 88 74 / 60 30 60 30
FMY 89 72 89 72 / 60 30 60 30
GIF 90 72 90 72 / 60 30 60 20
SRQ 87 72 87 73 / 60 30 60 30
BKV 88 68 88 69 / 60 20 60 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PRC
LONG TERM...RJS