AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 245 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2005 .SYNOPSIS...TYPICAL JULY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND THE COASTLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN USA REMAINS IN PLACE. THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN INLAND REMAINS UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE ALOFT COULD BRING SOME HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .DISCUSSION...WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES IS ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE...MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS...TO ROTATE NWWD FROM THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SONORAN DESERT INTO CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OUT NEAR 37N 135W EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT DO LITTLE TO SHOVE THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EASTWARD NORTH OF 40-41N...NW CALIF ZONES SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE STEERING FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AND SURGE PACKETS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR MOUNTAINS IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. WITH HOT/DRY AIR IN PLACE...THIS MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAM SHOULD INCREASE OUR INSTABILITY ALOFT AND HAVE HELD ON TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT BUT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY IN THE EASTERN TRINITY ALPS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST EVENTUALLY TRACKS ENEWD AND FILLS BEING ABSORBED BY THE MASSIVE ANTICYCLONE TO OUR EAST. BUT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WEST... SURFACE TEMPERATURES AGAIN MOVE TOWARDS THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ARE SOMEWHERE NEAR BAJA AND ABLE TO RECURVE NWWD INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. WITH ALL THE ACTION TO OUR SOUTH...LEFT OUR AREA DRY WITH RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TIME. && .MARINE...46022 CONTINUES TO CLOCK SIG WAVE HEIGHTS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN WW3 GUIDANCE. SUSPECT THIS IS A RESULT OF GFS SFC WINDS UNDERESTIMATING THE NW FLOW IN THE OUTER WATERS W OF THE 46027 BUOY WHICH THE RUC PICKS UP ON A BIT BETTER. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH HAZ SEAS ADVISORY FOR 8X8S WITHIN THE INNER 20 N OF CAPE MENDO BUT XPCT FRESH SWELL TO DAMPEN IN THE MORNING DAYTIME THU. WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING N OVER WATERS THU WILL EASE WINDS...BUT FOLLOWING PASSAGE BLDG SFC HIGH AND THERMAL LOW WILL CRANK UP N FLOW. && .AVIATION...STRATUS SLIVER BUTTING UP AGAINST THE IMMEDIATE REDWOOD COAST AT 21Z WITH MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER S OF CAPE MENDOCINO. VSBL SHOWS FRONT EDGE OF DEEPER MSTR MOVG N THRU SRN WATERS OVER TOP A CYCLONIC SWIRL OR LOW CIGS AND FOG. AS S FLOW OVERTAKES WATERS XPCT STRATUS TO MOVE NWD. NOT XPTG MASSIVE INLAND INTRUSION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH BLDG DEPTH SUSPECT COASTAL AIRFIELDS WILL GET A SPILLAGE OF IFR LIFR COND TNGT. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...PZZ450-470. && $$ SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION: MJV MARINE/AVIATION: COLBY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 243 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2005 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY) ...HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES... ...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON THU... CURRENTLY...AS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE INFLUX OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND AM SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS. GJT AND DEN 12Z/20 SOUNDINGS SHOWING A VERY SHALLOW(50-100MB) LAYER OF MOISTURE BETWEEN H5 AND H4 LEVELS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A COUPLE OF VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SCT-BKN MODERATE CUMULUS/TCU CLOUDS DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE MORNING. CLOUD BASES PRETTY HIGH...PROBABLY 150000-20000 FT MSL. UPPER AR VALLEY AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WEB CAMS SHOWING THIS WELL. MOSTLY "VIRGA" HAS BEEN PRODUCED WITH SUCH HOT AND RELATIVELY "DRY" LOW LEVELS. A "VIRGA-BOMB" HIT KCOS WITH A LOCAL WIND GUST OF 44KTS EARLY IN THE AFTN. THE COVERAGE OF "VIRGA" AND "SPRINKLES" HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LOW...SO FAR. ALSO...THE COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY OF LIGHTNING HAS BEEN VERY LOW PER THE 1 HOUR LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEM DATA. THE RADAR ECHOES ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 10-20 MINUTES...IF THAT. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA TRYING TO FORM FROM THE PALMER DVD TO KITR ALONG THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT. TEMPS ROCKETED TO NEAR 100F IN SERN CO BY NOON TODAY JUST LIKE YESTERDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL FOR THIS DATE AND MAY APPROACH ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WAS ALL IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL "HOT" HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PARKED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES PER WATER VAPOR AND RUC MODEL ANALYSES. LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGT...WILL LOOK FOR THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...LOOKING FOR A VERY LOW POP/WX COVERAGE FOR HIGH CLOUD BASE "VIRGA"..."SPRINKLES"...AND A COUPLE OF "DRY" THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVE. NAM12 TRYING TO DEVELOP AN EVE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER E CNTRL-SERN CO/WRN KS AND SEEMS REASONABLE WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY FORMING FROM THE PALMER DVD TO KITR. THE -1OC TO -3OC HAIL GROWTH ZONE CAPE VALUES ARE LOW(50-75 K/KG) ALONG WITH HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT...15-16K FT MSL...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE IN THE CLOUD SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT LOW. THUS...NOT EXPECTING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING WITH ANY CELLS AND NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. TWEAKED MIN TEMPS UP ALONG THE 6-9K FT MSL ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WET MOUNTAINS...AND PIKES PEAK. PAST GRIDDED VERIFICATION SHOWING WE HAVE BEEN MOSTLY TOO COOL IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NGT. THU...PERSISTENCE PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO GO. THE CENTROID OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO NRN CO BY THU AFTN. H7 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE +20C TO +23C... SO MORE 100-108F MAX TEMPS ARE LIKELY FOR 5.5K FT MSL AND BELOW. RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 21 JUL(THU) ARE... COS 98/1981 PUB 106/1981 ALS 90/1981 CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL A CONCERN THU WITH HAINES VALUES 5-6 AND AFTN HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 5-15%. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN THERMALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN. NAM12 CONTINUES TO "BLOW-UP" PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT THE QPF AMOUNTS AGAIN LOOKS TOO HIGH AND TOO MUCH COVERAGE. GFS IS PRINTING OUT HARDLY ANY QPF. NOT EXPECTING MUCH HAIL IN THE CLOUD SYSTEMS SINCE THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE 15-16K FT MSL AND CAPE VALUES ARE <= 100 J/KG. THUS...ANY "DRY" THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THUS...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. [METZE] .LONG TERM... (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES UNDER HOT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THU NIGHT-SAT...MODELS CONTINUING THE TREND OF KEEPING CENTROID OF HOT (600DM) UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO THU NIGHT...SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH SAT. MODELS INDICATING BEST MOISTURE TO RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...UTAH AND INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONINTUED TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN. DRY LIGHTNING COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH FOR ANY FIRE WX HIGHLIGHTS ATTM. WILL KEEP THE PLAINS DRY THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE LACK OF MOISTURE...WARM AIR LOFT (+18C TO +22C) AND NO DISCERNIBLE STRONG DISTURBANCES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP LID ON CONVECTION. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE...WITH 90S TO THE MID 100S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 60S THROUGH THE 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY SAT...WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING IN A TAD MORE MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE. SUN-WED...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN REGION TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A PAC NW SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS... WE WILL SEE BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TREND OF WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER WELL IN HAND...AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. -MW && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ co WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL ISSUED BY NWS MELBOURNE FL 1045 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 .DISCUSSION... MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM TAMPA AND CAPE CANAVERAL SHOW DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BUT LIKELY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. RUC40 SHOWS A STRUNG OUT VORT LOBE MOVING WEST ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING STORMS INTERSECTS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE THIS AFTN NEAR THE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AS A RESULT OF BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED FUNNEL CLOUDS. NO UPDATES PLANNED TO ONGOING FORECAST. && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OFFSHORE. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ KELLY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1210 PM CDT WED JUL 202005 .AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS... SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS MAIN FORECAST ISSUE. LINEAR MCS MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS ACROSS NRN IL/NW IND BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH RUC NOWCAST TOOLS INDICATING 100 MB MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE AND CIN ERODING RAPIDLY. THUS EXPECT ORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS FCST AREA THIS AFTN...AFFECTING CHI AREA TERMINALS 18-22 UTC. APPEARS THAT BY 00Z CONVECTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS AS OUTFLOW SPREADS SOUTH/EAST OF CURRENT STORMS. SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR STRATUS/HZ/BR OVRNGT AS CONVECTIVELY DISTURBED WIND FIELD BECOMES LGT/VRBL. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH AN MVFR VSBY IN HZ. RATZER && FROM MORNING ZFP/GRIDS... .DISCUSSION...DECENT PROSPECTS FOR SOME MUCH NEADED IF NOT TOO LATE RAINFALL FOR PARCHED FIELDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLUSTER OF TSRA OVR SRN MN...NWRN IA...FAR NERN NEB WHERE STG WAA AHEAD OF SHRTWV TROF MOVG FM NRN PLAINS TWRD UPR MIDWEST. PROFILERS SHOW GODD BACKING/VEERING SIGNATURE WITH TROF PASSAGE AS WELL AS VERY STG LLVL FEED OF HOT AIR NNEWRD AHEAD OF TROF WITH 45-55KT SW WNDS AT H8 FRM TX PNHDL TO ERN NEB ANSD WRN IA. NAM SHOWS THIS ISENT LIFT RATHER WELL AND TRANSLATES STG UVV E ACROSS MS RIVER INTO SWRN WI AND NWRN IA BY 18Z AND TO SERM WI AND NERN IL BY 00Z. GFS SUFFERING FEEDBACK PROBS BY THIS EVE...BUT NAM ALSO BRINGS SIG...ALBEIT LESSER..QPF ACROSS NRN IL DUR THIS EVE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 2+ INCHES BY 00Z THU. WILL CARRY ONLY HI CHC POPS AS TO NOT HAVE HOPES DASHED THO AT LEAST DECENT PORTION OF FA HAS GOOD CHC OF SEEING SOME MEANINGFUL TOTALS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT OUTFLO REINFORCED BNDRY ACROSS SRN FA INTO TONIGHT AND THU MORNING WITH CONT CHC OF TSRA ALONG AND S OF IT. WITH H8 TEMPS WRMING INTO LWR 20C RANGE TODAY AND GOOD SUN BEFORE HIER CLOUDS START ARRIVE TEMPS SHUD REACH LO AND MID 90S TODAY...WHILE SSE SFC WNDS ADVECT IN ONLY MODERATELY HI DWPTS SO HEAT INDEX SHUD ONLY FLIRT WITH 100 AT TIME OF MAX TEMPS. LLVLS COOLED SLIGHTLY ACROSS NRN PORTION OF FA BEHIND SHRTWV WITH SFC RDG BLDG ACROSS UPR MIDWEST AND NRN GRTLKS THU. SOME LK COOLING WL KEEP TEMPS IN 80S ALONG SHORE. ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPS INTO NRN GRTLKS FRI...WITH GOOD SURGE OF HEAT STARTING LATER SAT AS MORE SIG SHRTWV MOVS OVR UPR RDG ACROSS SRN CANADA. H8 THERMAL RDG OF 24-27C FCST ACROSS NR IL AT 12Z THO GFS WANTS TO PUSH ANOTHER CDFNT INTO NRN IL DURG DAY SO COULD PUT DAMPER ON TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS FOR NRN IL SUN. TRS && .WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE .IN...NONE .LK MI...NONE $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1043 AM EST WED JUL 20 2005 .UPDATE... TSTMS PERSISTING IN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ZONE OVER SRN WI THIS MORNING. MAIN QUESTION IS IF STORMS WILL SURVIVE AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR OVER CWA, BUT MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS NOW ENTERING SWRN PORTION OF CWA, SO FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING A CHC OF TSTMS ACROSS NW PORTION OF CWA THIS AFTN. ALSO INCREASED DWPTS SOME IN GRIDS THIS AFTN/EVE... OTHERWISE, NO SGFNT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS ZONES/GRIDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... AVIATION... QUITE SHRT TERM W/VFR XPCD. HWVR THAT SAID...THINGS IN CONSIDERABLE FLUX BY LT AFTN ESP W W/ESCALATING MCS POISED UPSTREAM FM CNTRL MN INTO NRN IA. 06Z GUIDANCE AND TREND IN RUCII OF CONSIDERABLE CONCERN W/QUICKER MSTR TRANSPORT NEWD THIS AFTN WHILE MAINTAINING STG LLJ AHD OF LINE AS EVIDENCED W/DOWNSTREAM PROFILER INDICATIONS. IT NOW APPEARS ONGOING CONVN OR REDVLPMNT FURTHER EWD ALG SIG LL THETA-E FLUX WILL OCCUR SOONER AND HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO MENTION AT LEAST FOR SBN. FWA A BIT TRICKER W/850-300MB THICKNESSES AND LLJ NOSE REMAINING UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT TO KEEP MCS ANCHORED OR BACKBUILDING WWD. WILL AT LEAST AFFORD A PROB30 FOR IT THERE. OTHERWISE XPCD RAINFALL W AND AT SBN EARLY EVENING SHLD LEAD TO SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION TWD THU AM. SHORT TERM... BRIEF RESPITE IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF LATE YDA BUT WK SFC RIDGING YIELDING TO IMPRESSIVE RTN FLW IN ASSOCN/W SW TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD ACRS MANITOBA THIS AM. TAIL END OF UPR TROF AXIS IN CONCERT W/STG LLJ AND SIG MSTR FLUX AIDING UPSCALE MCS EVOLUTION ACRS ERN SD. LTL ADDNL DVLPMNT YET FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ALG INTENSE LL THETA-E RIDGE BUT XPC RAPID DVLPMNT ACRS ERN MN/WRN WI YET THIS AM AS LLJ VEERS EWD W/TIME. 00Z GUIDANCE REASONABLY CONSISTENT W/PREV RUNS AND STILL INDICATING GOOD MCS POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS UPR TROF OVR SC CANADA CONTS EWD W/NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO LLJ BY EVENING AND INCREASING LL MASS FLUX ACRS NRN IL...SW MI AND NW IN. MAY VRY WELL BE SD CLUSTER MAINTAINS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT SHIFTS E/SEWD BUT STILL A PLACEMENT ISSUE OF WHERE MESO-BETA ELEMENT WILL EXIST W/00Z INDICATION BACK WWD ACRS IL AND HIGHLITED BY NR 6 INCH QPF BULLSEYE S OF KORD. HWVR 06Z INDICATION FURTHER E AND IN BTR AGREEMENT W/HIGH RES MESOSCALE WRF OUTPUT DICTATING MUCH HIGHER QPF POTENTIAL HERE. OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING OF KEEN INTEREST GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SIG RELIEF. EITHER RATE...COMBINATION OF INTENSE LL MSTR FLUX AND INCREASING LG SCALE DVRG IN ASSOCN/W UPR SPEED MAX SHIFTING ACRS MI OVERNIGHT FAVORS A HEADY INCREASE IN POPS ROUGHLY NW HALF OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DVLPMNT YET LATE THIS AFTN W/NAM SUGGESTION OF WARM FNTL FGEN AS SW FLW RAPIDLY INCREASES. OTHERWISE...INCREASING WAA AND INSOLATION TDA SHLD BRING ABT A RTN OF 90+ FOR MOST EXCEPT FAR EAST. LONG TERM... A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN WITH IT. THEN THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN ON FRIDAY. GFS80 IS TRYING TO BRING IN SOME QPF ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IT HAS JUST TO OUR NORTH. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE DGEX DO NOT HAVE THIS AND HAVE SUNDAY DRY SO WENT WITH CONSISTENCY AT THIS POINT AND LEFT SUNDAY DRY. BUT THEN BOTH CURRENT RUNS OF GFS80 AND DGEX HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN YET. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE DONE WITH THE TEMPERATURES. STILL LOOKING TO BE A HOT STRETCH COMING UP. FOR EXAMPLE...GFS HAS 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS ON SATURDAY AND THEN CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TAYLOR SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...LOTHAMER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 633 AM EST WED JUL 20 2005 .AVIATION... QUITE SHRT TERM W/VFR XPCD. HWVR THAT SAID...THINGS IN CONSIDERABLE FLUX BY LT AFTN ESP W W/ESCALATING MCS POISED UPSTREAM FM CNTRL MN INTO NRN IA. 06Z GUIDANCE AND TREND IN RUCII OF CONSIDERABLE CONCERN W/QUICKER MSTR TRANSPORT NEWD THIS AFTN WHILE MAINTAINING STG LLJ AHD OF LINE AS EVIDENCED W/DOWNSTREAM PROFILER INDICATIONS. IT NOW APPEARS ONGOING CONVN OR REDVLPMNT FURTHER EWD ALG SIG LL THETA-E FLUX WILL OCCUR SOONER AND HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO MENTION AT LEAST FOR SBN. FWA A BIT TRICKER W/850-300MB THICKNESSES AND LLJ NOSE REMAINING UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT TO KEEP MCS ANCHORED OR BACKBUILDING WWD. WILL AT LEAST AFFORD A PROB30 FOR IT THERE. OTHERWISE XPCD RAINFALL W AND AT SBN EARLY EVENING SHLD LEAD TO SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION TWD THU AM. && .SHORT TERM... BRIEF RESPITE IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF LATE YDA BUT WK SFC RIDGING YIELDING TO IMPRESSIVE RTN FLW IN ASSOCN/W SW TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD ACRS MANITOBA THIS AM. TAIL END OF UPR TROF AXIS IN CONCERT W/STG LLJ AND SIG MSTR FLUX AIDING UPSCALE MCS EVOLUTION ACRS ERN SD. LTL ADDNL DVLPMNT YET FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ALG INTENSE LL THETA-E RIDGE BUT XPC RAPID DVLPMNT ACRS ERN MN/WRN WI YET THIS AM AS LLJ VEERS EWD W/TIME. 00Z GUIDANCE REASONABLY CONSISTENT W/PREV RUNS AND STILL INDICATING GOOD MCS POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS UPR TROF OVR SC CANADA CONTS EWD W/NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO LLJ BY EVENING AND INCREASING LL MASS FLUX ACRS NRN IL...SW MI AND NW IN. MAY VRY WELL BE SD CLUSTER MAINTAINS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT SHIFTS E/SEWD BUT STILL A PLACEMENT ISSUE OF WHERE MESO-BETA ELEMENT WILL EXIST W/00Z INDICATION BACK WWD ACRS IL AND HIGHLITED BY NR 6 INCH QPF BULLSEYE S OF KORD. HWVR 06Z INDICATION FURTHER E AND IN BTR AGREEMENT W/HIGH RES MESOSCALE WRF OUTPUT DICTATING MUCH HIGHER QPF POTENTIAL HERE. OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING OF KEEN INTEREST GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SIG RELIEF. EITHER RATE...COMBINATION OF INTENSE LL MSTR FLUX AND INCREASING LG SCALE DVRG IN ASSOCN/W UPR SPEED MAX SHIFTING ACRS MI OVERNIGHT FAVORS A HEADY INCREASE IN POPS ROUGHLY NW HALF OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DVLPMNT YET LATE THIS AFTN W/NAM SUGGESTION OF WARM FNTL FGEN AS SW FLW RAPIDLY INCREASES. OTHERWISE...INCREASING WAA AND INSOLATION TDA SHLD BRING ABT A RTN OF 90+ FOR MOST EXCEPT FAR EAST. && .LONG TERM... A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN WITH IT. THEN THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN ON FRIDAY. GFS80 IS TRYING TO BRING IN SOME QPF ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IT HAS JUST TO OUR NORTH. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE DGEX DO NOT HAVE THIS AND HAVE SUNDAY DRY SO WENT WITH CONSISTENCY AT THIS POINT AND LEFT SUNDAY DRY. BUT THEN BOTH CURRENT RUNS OF GFS80 AND DGEX HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN YET. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE DONE WITH THE TEMPERATURES. STILL LOOKING TO BE A HOT STRETCH COMING UP. FOR EXAMPLE...GFS HAS 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS ON SATURDAY AND THEN CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY. && .AVIATION... SFC RIDGING TO YIELD TO MODEST RTN FLW BY THIS AFTN IN ASSOCN/W SW TROF PROGRESSING EWD ACRS SC CANADA. TAIL END OF UPR TROF IN CONCERT W/STG LLJ AND PRONOUNCED MSTR FLUX HAS FIRED INTENSE CONVN ACRS ERN SD THIS AM AND LIKELY FORESHADOWING POTENTIAL DVLPMNTS HERE LTR TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...VFR XPCD ALTHOUGH CONTD MENTION OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT FWA THIS AM ALG RIDGE CNTR LINE AND NARROWING T/TD SPREAD. OTHERWISE...INFLUXING MSTR THIS AFTN WILL MANIFEST W/INCREASING CU AND ULTIMATELY A CHC OF TSRA AT SBN AFT 02Z. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...LOTHAMER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 800 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 .DISCUSSION... ZONE UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT. NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. STILL SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE. CURRENTLY THE SURFACE FRONT HAS EDGED INTO NORTHERN IOWA. SFC CONVECTION REMAINS CAPPED WITH WARM LOWER/MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. DOES LOOK LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AS SPEED CONFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER WEST AND NW IA IN THE H925-850 LAYER. JUST ABOVE THIS...ANY PARCEL LIFTED FROM ABOUT H800 IS PRETTY MUCH GOOD TO GO ACCORDING TO THE ETA WITH LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION AND CAPES AROUND 4K J/KG. GFS AND RUC MAINTAIN A CAPPING LAYER AROUND H7 AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION GIVEN VEERING H850 FLOW BY 06Z AND DECREASED CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. TURNS OUT INITIATING CONVECTION OVER IA MAY BE A MOOT POINT IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SD CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR A WHILE LONGER THIS EVENING. STEERING FLOW AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORF VECTORS WOULD BRING THIS ESE ALONG THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COULD MAKE IT INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHWEST. GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE POOLING AND EVAPOTRANS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING PUSHING DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 70S. DEW PTS WILL COME DOWN SOME LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT A QUITE WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO NOT BE AS WARM THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS IN MIND AND TO BRING US INTO BETTER COLLAB. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JAW ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1034 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 .MID MORNING UPDATE... RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS COVERING MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE SOLAR INSOLATION HAS BEGUN IN EARNEST...STRATUS AND FOG STILL MIXING OUT SLOWLY. LATEST RUC FORECASTS INDICATE THAT IT MAY BE AROUND 17Z BEFORE THIS CLEARS OUT COMPLETELY. REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. K INDICES AND WMSI VALUES SUGGEST DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS...LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION. OTHER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...AFTERNOON READINGS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S. COMBINE THAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 100-105 ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT BY 1100 AM EDT. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IN...NONE. .KY...NONE. && $$ JARVIS ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 635 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 .EARLY MORNING UPDATE... FAIRLY SOLID AREA OF LOW CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER A GOOD PART OF THE FCST AREA...BASICALLY S/E OF A FORT KNOX TO FRANKFORT LINE. LOCALIZED VSBYS NEAR 1/2-1SM...BUT MOST AREAS STILL ABOUT 1-3SM OR SO. LOUISVILLE VWP SHOWING 10KT WINDS IN LOWEST 1KFT AGL...MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW STRATUS VERSUS FOG. TAFS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS...BUT WILL UPDATE PUBLIC FCSTS TO EXPAND PATCHY MORNING FOG. LATEST RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LOW CLOUD LAYER LIFTING/DISSIPATING BY AROUND 9-10 AM...WILL INCORPORATE THIS LATEST THINKING INTO THE 12 UTC ISSUANCES OF THE TAFS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. CS .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)... MUCH QUIETER OVERNIGHT PERIOD COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WITH SIMPLY SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING. SOME HINTS OF A LOW-LEVEL BKN CIG DEVELOPING IN SRN KY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH. WATER VAPOR DATA SHOWING A DISTINCT E-W ORIENTED MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH IS ALSO SEEN IN THE 0Z SOUNDING DATA...WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB OVER MUCH OF INDIANA/OHIO AND FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF KENTUCKY INTO TENNESSEE. RECENT KSDF ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS DRY POCKET ALOFT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD AT LEAST TO THE I-64 LATITUDE. HAVE NOTED THE 0Z NCEP MODEL ANALYSES DO NOT CAPTURE THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT...RATHER THEY BROADEN IT OUT WITH PW VALUES TOO HIGH AT KILX AND KILN. 0Z NAM DOES SHOW THIS AREA OF RELATIVELY LOW PW/K-INDICES MOVING E/NE WITH TIME TODAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE LMK FCST AREA IN A FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR SOME TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSES INDICATING A NUMBER OF UPPER SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION TODAY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT TYPE POPS MAINLY THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THE WET MICROBURST INDEX (WMSI) PERFORMED WELL YESTERDAY INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND WE DID HAVE SOME SVR WINDS OVER IN THE LEX AREA. TODAYS WMSI OFF THE NAM FCST INDICATING SIMILAR POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 MPH GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER THOSE AREA ENHANCING DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. SPOTS OF HVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW. INTO TONIGHT...BOTH NCEP MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME TYPE OF MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH IT COULD MOVE SE INTO INDIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. WILL PUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE VALUES IN OUR SRN IND/LOU ZONES WITH THIS FEATURE. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...AGAIN THE MAV/GFS-MOS HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SEE NO REAL REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THOSE NUMBERS. HEAT INDEX VALUES AGAIN HAVE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE 98-103 RANGE THIS AFTN...WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. CS .LONG TERM (THURSDAY-TUESDAY)... UPPER AIR PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS HINT AT ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY DEVELOP INTO AN OVERNIGHT MCS...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE...OUR CWA MAY RECEIVE SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. FEEL THAT THE GFS IS OVERDONE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE THINKING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HOLD WITH 30 POPS ACROSS CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HEAT WILL REALLY BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. CENTER OF 500MB RIDGE WILL MIGRATE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ETA IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE HEAT...BRINGING IN 30+ TEMPERATURES AT 925MB BY SATURDAY. EVEN THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN COOLER AND MORE ACCURATE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS RECENTLY ...IS ADVERTISING MID 90S FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...IN FACT...THE WARMEST OF THE PAST TWO YEARS. WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...HEAT INDEXES MAY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY COOL A BIT AS RIDGE RETROGRADES A BIT BACK WEST. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MAY BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. JSD && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IN...NONE. .KY...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 358 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT WEATHER...18Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED ZONAL FLOW EXTENDING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THREE SHRTWVS TO NOTE WITHIN THE FLOW...ONE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED ONE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...A SECOND SYNOPTIC ONE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND ANOTHER IN CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AHEAD OF THE THIRD SHRTWV. CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHRTWV OVER CENTRAL WI CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS MENOMINEE COUNTY...THOUGH THESE HAVE REALLY WEAKENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SHRTWV. CLEARING HAS COMMENCED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHRTWV ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. A FEW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA OF HEATING ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...EVIDENCE THAT THE CAP MAYBE TRYING TO BREAK. 18Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM RHI MODIFIED WITH AN 86 TEMPERATURE AND 61 DEWPOINT SHOWED ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BREAK THE CAP. SIMILAR STORY AT CMX LOOKING AT THEIR 18Z TAMDAR SOUNDING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SOME MID LEVEL ACCAS STRETCHES ALONG US-2 FROM NEAR GLASGOW TO DULUTH AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED WITH IT THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS HAS NOW WEAKENED AS MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FALLING APART. TO THE NORTH OF THIS...SOME BROKEN LOW CLOUD IS PRESENT ACROSS NW ONTARIO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS IS IN CASE ANY OF THE CUMULUS ACTUALLY DEVELOP TO THE WEST. NOT SURE IF IT WILL GO BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHRTWV AS SEEN BY DRYING ON WATER VAPOR...HOWEVER GIVEN THE TAMDAR SOUNDING MODIFICATIONS...HAVE A HARD TIME REMOVING PRECIP. IF ANYTHING DOES FORM...0-6 KM SHEAR IS ONLY 20-25 KT AND WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (ON THE ORDER OF 13.0 KFT)...SHOULD NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT HAIL. SFC-5000 FT DELTA THETA-E HOWEVER IS AROUND 25 C/KM...SO COULD NOT RULE OUT A DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANY CONVECTION WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS ISLE ROYALE INTO THE KEWEENAW LATE. A FEW MID CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCAS FIELD...COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY LATE TOO AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S) AND CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP AT LEAST INTO THE MID 50S. SOME NORTHERLY BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT IS WHAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE DEWPOINTS. THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN BY EVENING BEHIND TONIGHT\S COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP BRING IN DRIER AIR INTO UPPER MICHIGAN... ALLOWING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS COOLER WITH THE INTERIOR AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WARMER. 12-14C 850MB TEMPS YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80S...AGAIN WARMEST SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHRTWV OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY MORNING AND BY 00Z SAT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A DECENT SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SHRTWV...HOWEVER IN COMPARISON TO ALL THE MODELS IT IS AN OUTLIER. GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION...ONLY SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN FRI MORNING. PREFER THE WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION DUE TO THE SHRTWV MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE WNW FLOW PROGGED ALOFT AT 500MB. IN EITHER THE WEAK OR DEEP SURFACE REFLECTION CASES...ALL FOUR MODELS CONTINUE TO PRINT OUT A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF (ESPECIALLY THE GFS DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK). THIS QPF IS A RESULT OF A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...IMPINGING ON A THETA-E RIDGE. 800-600MB FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS REFLECT THIS TOO BY SHOWING AN AREA OF STRONG CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 40 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH COULD EASILY SEE LIKELY POPS OR GREATER NEEDED. ELEVATED CAPES (LIFTED FROM 875-900MB) ARE 1000-1500 J/KG WITH NO CIN...SO THUNDER WILL DEFINITELY OCCUR. FREEZING LEVELS AND WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE AROUND 12.5 AND 10.5 KFT RESPECTIVELY PRIOR TO THE CONVECTION. WITH 1-6 KM SHEAR PRIOR TO CONVECTION OF 30-35KT...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL. KEPT QPF DOWN FOR THE MOMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. BEHIND IT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE U.P. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CURRENT GOING HIGHS FOR FRIDAY LOOK REASONABLE. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CONTINUING TO FOLLOW THE 12Z GFS/UKMET...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE U.P. DURING THE EVENING...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BY 5-8 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR TO ACCOUNT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AIR MASS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ONLY AROUND 0.5 INCH...SUPPORTING THE COOLING IN THE INTERIOR. MAY NEED TO DROP TEMPERATURES MORE AS MET GUIDANCE INDICATES. THIS DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALSO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OUT IN THE PLAINS. RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE GOING IN EARNEST CLOSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BY 00Z SUN CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE OVER MINNESOTA INTO NW WI. WITH THE RETURN FLOW...SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA...BUT OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C AGAIN SUPPORT READINGS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY. EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN SETTING UP THIS WEEKEND SHOWN BY THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WILL ALLOW 500MB HEIGHTS TO FALL DURING THE BEGINNING PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOW QUICK THEY FALL IS UNCERTAIN...WHICH CAN BE SEEN BY THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AT 00Z WED. THERE ARE EVEN A FEW DIFFERENCES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING A DEEP LOW OVER MAINE AT 00Z SUN. THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AMONGST THE MODELS AND WAS NOT PREFERRED BY HPC. A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH SHOWN BY THE GFS/UKMET SEEMS TO BE MORE REASONABLE. THESE MODELS WOULD ALLOW FOR A SHRTWV TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME CONVECTION TO UPPER MICHIGAN. GFS HAS SHOWN THIS CONVECTION FOR MANY RUNS...AND STILL DOES ON THE 12Z RUN. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS PUT DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IOWA. A STRONGER SHRTWV OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SUNDAY MORNING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT...RESULTING IN A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTHWARD. 00Z CANADIAN PUSHES IT THROUGH THE CWA ON MON...HOWEVER THE GFS RUNS/UKMET AND THE ECMWF ONLY BRING IT INTO CENTRAL WI BY 00Z TUE. PREFER THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS AS IT IS TYPICAL FOR THESE FRONTS TO REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CONVECTION FIRES ALONG IT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR -TSRA IN FOR MONDAY...BUT THINK BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE WI BORDER. CHANCES PERSIST INTO MON NIGHT AS THE SHRTWV TO THE WEST APPROACHES. GFS ALSO HAS SHOWN THIS RAIN FOR MANY RUNS NOW. WILL DRY THINGS ON TUE...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR CHANCES TO BE EXPANDED IF THE SHRTWV SLOWS UP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FOR WED WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN FROM THE PLAINS. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 445 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. RACING THROUGH THE FLOW IS A SHORTWAVE WHICH STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE HUDSON BAY LOW. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO TO A LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ALONG A THETA-E RIDGE OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. KAPX AND KGRB SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOW THAT IT IS VERY DRY ABOVE THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION WATER WAS ON THE ORDER OF .6 AND .8 IN. INTERNATIONAL FALLS SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWING A VERY STRONG CAP DUE TO CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 800MB. ETA12 SHOWING CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHILE RUC SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING THIS OVER WISCONSIN. COMPARING RADAR AND SATELLITE REPORTS TO THE FORECAST SOUNDING...IT APPEARS THAT RUC HAS A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION THAN ETA. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SHFIT QUICKLY INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. RUC DOES SEEM TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE THETA-E PROJECTS THE HIGHEST OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A THETA-E RIDGE THAT STRETCH ACROSS THE U.P. CHECKING THE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH MOISTURE GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THIS FRONT WILL POSSIBLY KEEP THIS MOISTURE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. NEVER THE LESS...RUC AND ETA CONTINUE PUSH SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW 70S OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES AS HIGH 3500J/KG ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...WHICH MAKES THIS LITTLE LESS LIKELY. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST TO ADJACENT COUNTIES. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SEEM TO BE APPROPRIATE. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1110 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 .DISCUSSION... SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED FROM NE MN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WILL CONTINUE ESE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DECENT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC AND NAM IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL MOIST CONV FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AS WELL. WEAKEST CAP WILL BE IN WI COUNTIES. HAVE DROPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THIS EVENING FOR A START. ALSO RAISED TEMPS A BIT IN FEW AREAS. .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MN...NONE. .WI...NONE. && $$ JPR mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 145 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 .DISCUSSION... LOTS TO THINK ABOUT WITH THIS FCST...SUMMER WX IS NOT ALWAYS EASY. TONIGHT...ISOLD AMS ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT OVR SRN PTNS OF THE CWA SHUD DIE OUT WITH EVENING HRS. LOOK FOR MCS TO FORM ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TODAY'S ACTIVITY. CELL IN SW CORNER OF IOWA IS NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. RUC SHOWS CORFIDI VECTORS BCMG MORE NORTHERLY BY EVENING AND INCREASING. LOOKS LIKE SOME ACTIVITY MAY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA SO WILL PUT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THAT. WILL START EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AT 700 AM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY COMPLICATE THE NUMBERS A TIME OR TWO...BUT OVERALL LONG TERM HEAT EFFECTS WILL BE JUST AS DANGEROUS...PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND. CUBS/CARDS AND SEVERAL MAJOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON TAP AND THIS IS THE HOTTEST WX OF THE SEASON THUS FAR...COULD TAKE A TOLL. IN ADDITION THIS WILL GIVE THOSE ASSISTING IN HEAT RELIEF A LITTLE TIME TO SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND. HOTTEST CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND A SFC LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ...A NECESSARY INGREDIENT FOR EXTREMELY HOT TEMPS HERE. && && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR 700AM THURSDAY THROUGH 700 PM SUNDAY. IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR 700AM THURSDAY THROUGH 700 PM SUNDAY. && $$ PEDIGO mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 944 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 .DISCUSSION... HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. EXPECT AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE NIGHT TO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...DESPITE QUITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. NOT SO SURE THAT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE CWA...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THE LATEST RUC THOUGH INDICATES THAT CAPPING EFFECTS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH TIME...AND EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN BY THEN. && DEE .PREV DISCUSSION... 240 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND RESULTANT MAX TEMPERATURES AND EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP. IN THE SHORT TERM...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH 10M HEIGHT FALLS NOTED...ALONG WITH A 60KT SPEED MAX. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF ALONG A COLD FRONT EDGING SOUTHWARD. H70 TEMPERATURES INDICATED WE WERE WELL CAPPED...THUS WE'LL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TONIGHT FOR CONVECTION TO REALLY GET GOING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WHATEVER MCS DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST AND MOVE INTO IOWA...AND COULD POSSIBLY LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY MORNING...IN SIMILAR FASHION TO WHAT HAPPENED TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...WITH POINTS NORTH OF I80 ON THE COOLER SIDE AND POINTS OFF TO THE SOUTH STILL VERY HOT WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 AGAIN. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105. OFFICIALLY...TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY...WE ALSO NEED NIGHTTIME LOWS AROUND 80 OR ABOVE. THUS...WE'RE NOT EXPECTING TO MEET THOSE CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...THEREFORE WE'LL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE ZFP AND HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACTS IN THE HWO. THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT SEEMS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'RE EXPECTING TONIGHT...WITH THE RING OF FIRE REDEVELOPING IN SIMILAR FASHION AS IT DOES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA WITH A SIGNIFICANT CAP EXPECTED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MCS DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND ROLL EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA. THIS SECOND MCS PERHAPS DEVELOPS JUST A BIT FURTHER DEEPER INTO OUR CWFA THOUGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN DRIVE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO OUR CWA AND COULD POSE QUITE A CHALLENGE IN DEFINING TEMPERATURES. AGAIN AM EXPECTING COOLER TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. LOOKING FOR HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 FOR JUST ABOVE ALL AREAS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR...BUT PERHAPS JUST A BIT COOLER ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MOVE IN. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER BASED ON JUST A FEW MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED. WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS NIGHTTIME LOWS DURING THAT TIME WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. LOOKS LIKE RELIEF IS IN SIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MAKES A DECENT PUSH INTO THE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. THAT LOOKS LIKE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (BEYOND THE SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT). THE FRONT PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DEWALD ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1004 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY DURING THE EVENING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE DROPPED AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... ISOLD CONVECTION REMAINS PACKED ACROSS THE RIDGES AND OVER THE SE WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OVER THE CWA ATTM IN WAKE OF WORKED OVER ATMOS FROM TUE TSRA. GIVEN BEST INSTAB OVER THE SE AND ONLY WEAK MCON PLAN TO HAVE POP GRADIENT FROM LOW CHC NW TO 40ISH SE FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS EVENING. RUC THEN SHOWS LACK OF MUCH PRECIP OTHER THAN ISOLD SHRA OVERNGT SO WILL CONT WITH LITTLE CHC AFTER MIDNGT. WILL THROW IN SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY W PER RH AND DECENT FOG STAB VALUES OTRW PC WARM/HUMID WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S. LINGERING LEE TROF APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCTD CONVECTION THU AS WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION RETURNS ESPCLY SRN/SW ZONES. THIS IN COMBO WITH EVEN HIGHER PWATS...DECENT CAPE AND LIGHT S/SW FLOW SUPPORTS AT LEAST WDLY SCTD TSRA...SO CHCY POPS ESPCLY E ALONG LEE TROF CONVERGENCE. HIGHS GNRLY LOW/MID 90S WHICH MAY AGAIN PUSH INDICES CLOSE TO ADVSRY LEVELS WELL SE OF THE TRIAD. LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THU EVENING ALTHO LOOKS LIKE DIURNAL NATURE WILL CUT OFF COVERAGE OVERNGT PER DRIER NAM/CANADIAN SOLNS. WILL UP CHCS SOME IN THE EVENING AND GO WITH LOW END CHC OVRNGT TO MATCH BETTER...OTRW 30-40 POP. MODELS SHARPEN 5H TROF A BIT FRI WITH THE GFS INDICATING ENHANCED LIFT ESPCLY ERN HALF FRI AFTN UNDER HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. SINCE OTHER GUIDANCE WEAKER...WILL ONLY RAISE POPS A NOTCH...GNRLY BELOW GFS VALUES SINCE LIKELY OVERDONE AT THIS POINT. TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MAY BE CLOSE TO NPW LEVELS SE IF PRECIP/CLOUDS END UP LESS. SHRA LINGERS INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE APCH OF NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EDGES DEEP RH S OF THE AREA SAT MORNING. IN FACT APPEARS COULD END UP IN BETWEEN THE TWO BY SAT AFTN WITH WEAK COMPRESSION BOOSTING TEMPS A CAT HIGHER THAN MOS PENDING CLOUDS. THUS PLAN TO CONFINE ANY SLGT CHC POPS TO MAINLY THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAINS FOR NOW. OTRW PLAN TO BOOST TEMPS AGAIN WITH SOME UPR 90S PSBL SE THIRD SAT AFTN. WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT OVER OR JUST N OF THE REGION SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WHILE MAJORITY OF DEEP RH LIKELY SHIFTS TO THE S UNDER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID ATLC. MAY STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE CHCS ESPCLY SRN ZONES SAT EVENING...OTRW WILL TAPER POPS OFF SAT NGT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL E/NE FLOW DEVELOPS. CENTRAL STATES HEAT DOME/RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD E LATER SUNDAY THRU TUE BEFORE RIDGING FLATTENS WED AHEAD OF NEXT APCHG S/W TROF FROM THE NW. NW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MON ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAVE A FAINT WEAKNESS FOR PSBL MCS FEATURES TO DIVE SE TOWARD THE AREA THRU MONDAY NGT. SINCE IFFY AS TO SRN EXTENT...WILL TIME SLGT CHC TSRA LATE SUNDAY AND AGAIN DURING MON AS CAP MAY BE WEAKER BY THEN. OTRW INCRSG HEAT FOR EARLY WEEK WITH SOME UPR 90S/NR 100 PSBL CENTRAL/SRN TIER MON-TUE WHEN 85H VALUES PUSH 22-24C UNDER WEAK W/SW FLOW. COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH LATE WED BUT LIKELY SLOWER THAN GFS GIVEN STRENGTH OF RIDGE AND RESIDUAL HEATING. WILL INCLUDE A CHC POP WED AFTN FOR PREFRONTAL RH WITH TEMPS SLGHTLY COOLER ESPCLY TRIAD ZONES. AVIATION... ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS FROM MARION NC TO STUART VA THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND AREA DEVELOPING NEAR SEA BREEZE FRONT. LAPS INDICATED SOME SFC CONVERGENCE AT 17Z OVER THE SANDHILLS. ISOLD TO SCT MVFR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED AFT 20Z. AREAS OF FOG AND HAZE FORMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT GENERALLY AFT 09Z WITH WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS. ADDITIONAL DIURNAL MVFR CONVECTION THURSDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RHJ nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 309 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON BEARS QUITE A RESEMBLANCE TO YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY ACTIVATED AND CUMULUS FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS GETTING CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL. RUC OMEGA FIELDS REALLY SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO LOSE STEAM WITH SUNSET ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT ONCE AGAIN THE RUC SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY FIRE LONGER NEAR AND WEST OF I95...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. TRAINING ECHOES AND/OR SLOW MOVEMENT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THE TENDENCY OF SOME OF THE STORM TO REACH EL AOA 50KFT CAN BRING VERY FREQUENT LIGHTNING TOO. THE PATTERN WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE INTO TOMORROW...MEANING A REPEAT OF THE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ALSO ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE AREA. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... MID LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES ON FRIDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN THOUGH. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST AS OPPOSED TO TURN TO THE NORTWEST AS HINTED AT BY SOME 12Z MODEL RUNS. CHANCE POPS WILL THUS CONTINUE WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS STILL BRINGING THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. BY SUNDAY THOUGH THE RIDGE PUSHES BACK TO THE EAST IN A BIG WAY...ALL BUT SQUASHING ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUING THE SPELL OF HOT WEATHER. && .AVIATION... CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM MENTION OF POPS. RESULTANT SEA-BREEZE UNDERWAY ALONG THE COAST...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL. OTHERWISE...THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME INTRUSIONS INTO MVFR CIGS FROM TIME TO TIME. && .MARINE... SW FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WIND SPEEDS DRIVEN BY THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD AVERAGE 10 KT OR SO...BUT THE SEABREEZE SHOULD ADD 5-8 KNOTS TO THIS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS ARE TAKING THE STRONG WAVE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NW AND RECURVING IT OFF THE FL EAST COAST FRIDAY. THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY HPC OR NHC WHO INSTEAD FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN ON A MORE WNW PATH...POTENTIALLY CROSSING FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. IRONICALLY THIS MEANS OUR SW WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE MODELS SHOW FRIDAY WITH SURFACE PRESSURES REMAINING HIGHER OFFSHORE. ASIDE FROM LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES...WAVEWATCH IS SUGGESTING WE WILL DEAL WITH INCOMING SWELL FROM THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE FIRST IS A 10-11 SECOND 3 FT SWELL CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE WATERS FROM THE ESE. THIS SHOULD PEAK OUT LATE TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 1-2 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. && && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ087-096-097-099>101 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FROM NOON TO 6 PM THURSDAY. SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ017- 023-024- 032 >034-039- 046 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FROM NOON TO 6 PM THURSDAY. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK MARINE...TRA nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 240 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... ISOLD CONVECTION REMAINS PACKED ACROSS THE RIDGES AND OVER THE SE WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OVER THE CWA ATTM IN WAKE OF WORKED OVER ATMOS FROM TUE TSRA. GIVEN BEST INSTAB OVER THE SE AND ONLY WEAK MCON PLAN TO HAVE POP GRADIENT FROM LOW CHC NW TO 40ISH SE FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS EVENING. RUC THEN SHOWS LACK OF MUCH PRECIP OTHER THAN ISOLD SHRA OVERNGT SO WILL CONT WITH LITTLE CHC AFTER MIDNGT. WILL THROW IN SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY W PER RH AND DECENT FOG STAB VALUES OTRW PC WARM/HUMID WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S. LINGERING LEE TROF APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCTD CONVECTION THU AS WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION RETURNS ESPCLY SRN/SW ZONES. THIS IN COMBO WITH EVEN HIGHER PWATS...DECENT CAPE AND LIGHT S/SW FLOW SUPPORTS AT LEAST WDLY SCTD TSRA...SO CHCY POPS ESPCLY E ALONG LEE TROF CONVERGENCE. HIGHS GNRLY LOW/MID 90S WHICH MAY AGAIN PUSH INDICES CLOSE TO ADVSRY LEVELS WELL SE OF THE TRIAD. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THU EVENING ALTHO LOOKS LIKE DIURNAL NATURE WILL CUT OFF COVERAGE OVERNGT PER DRIER NAM/CANADIAN SOLNS. WILL UP CHCS SOME IN THE EVENING AND GO WITH LOW END CHC OVRNGT TO MATCH BETTER...OTRW 30-40 POP. MODELS SHARPEN 5H TROF A BIT FRI WITH THE GFS INDICATING ENHANCED LIFT ESPCLY ERN HALF FRI AFTN UNDER HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. SINCE OTHER GUIDANCE WEAKER...WILL ONLY RAISE POPS A NOTCH...GNRLY BELOW GFS VALUES SINCE LIKELY OVERDONE AT THIS POINT. TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MAY BE CLOSE TO NPW LEVELS SE IF PRECIP/CLOUDS END UP LESS. SHRA LINGERS INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE APCH OF NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EDGES DEEP RH S OF THE AREA SAT MORNING. IN FACT APPEARS COULD END UP IN BETWEEN THE TWO BY SAT AFTN WITH WEAK COMPRESSION BOOSTING TEMPS A CAT HIGHER THAN MOS PENDING CLOUDS. THUS PLAN TO CONFINE ANY SLGT CHC POPS TO MAINLY THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAINS FOR NOW. OTRW PLAN TO BOOST TEMPS AGAIN WITH SOME UPR 90S PSBL SE THIRD SAT AFTN. WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT OVER OR JUST N OF THE REGION SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WHILE MAJORITY OF DEEP RH LIKELY SHIFTS TO THE S UNDER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID ATLC. MAY STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE CHCS ESPCLY SRN ZONES SAT EVENING...OTRW WILL TAPER POPS OFF SAT NGT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL E/NE FLOW DEVELOPS. CENTRAL STATES HEAT DOME/RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD E LATER SUNDAY THRU TUE BEFORE RIDGING FLATTENS WED AHEAD OF NEXT APCHG S/W TROF FROM THE NW. NW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MON ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAVE A FAINT WEAKNESS FOR PSBL MCS FEATURES TO DIVE SE TOWARD THE AREA THRU MONDAY NGT. SINCE IFFY AS TO SRN EXTENT...WILL TIME SLGT CHC TSRA LATE SUNDAY AND AGAIN DURING MON AS CAP MAY BE WEAKER BY THEN. OTRW INCRSG HEAT FOR EARLY WEEK WITH SOME UPR 90S/NR 100 PSBL CENTRAL/SRN TIER MON-TUE WHEN 85H VALUES PUSH 22-24C UNDER WEAK W/SW FLOW. COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH LATE WED BUT LIKELY SLOWER THAN GFS GIVEN STRENGTH OF RIDGE AND RESIDUAL HEATING. WILL INCLUDE A CHC POP WED AFTN FOR PREFRONTAL RH WITH TEMPS SLGHTLY COOLER ESPCLY TRIAD ZONES. && .AVIATION... ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS FROM MARION NC TO STUART VA THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND AREA DEVELOPING NEAR SEA BREEZE FRONT. LAPS INDICATED SOME SFC CONVERGENCE AT 17Z OVER THE SANDHILLS. ISOLD TO SCT MVFR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED AFT 20Z. AREAS OF FOG AND HAZE FORMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT GENERALLY AFT 09Z WITH WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS. ADDITIONAL DIURNAL MVFR CONVECTION THURSDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KK/JH LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...KK nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 1002 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 .UPDATE...BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ORIENTED W-E ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WSR-88D KMBX SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. THESE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK FORCING. STRONG UPPER JET (SUBTLE JET STREAKS) ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG WITH WEAK 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOK TO BE RESPONSIBLE. PROBABLY SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. WILL ADD ISOLD -SHRA ACROSS MOST OF N FORECAST AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS. 12Z RUC SHOWS 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WEAKENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THIS SHOULD END ANY SHOWER THREAT BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR. TEMPERATURES AND ALL OTHER ASPECTS OF FORECAST LOOK GOOD. UPDATE ONLY MINOR. ---------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM KROX-KFSE-KDTL-KABR WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER IN SE SD. JUST HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL SAG TODAY WILL DETERMINE THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN WEST CENTRAL MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STALL THE FRONT OUT FROM AROUND KDLH-KSTC-KHON WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY AND HIGH DEWPOINT AIR POOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. FOR THIS REASON...I WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST IN PLACE AND LET THE DAY CREW KEEP THEIR EYES ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...BRINGING WITH IT MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ON NORTHERLY WINDS AND GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER NIGHT TO KEEP THE WINDOWS OPEN ON THURS NITE WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN DIPPING INTO THE 50S. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST ON THURS...SOUTHERLY WINDS USHER IN WARMER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDRY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A SIMILAR PATH TO THE ONE LATE TUES...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURS NITE ONCE THE LLJ KICKS IN. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD STAY IN SD CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER LIFT. THE SAME OLD SCENARIO PLAYS OUT BY LATE SAT ONCE THE NEXT BRIEF HIGH DEPARTS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ JCA/TG nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 1052 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 .SHORT TERM UPDATE (TONIGHT)... ONLY UPDATE MADE TO FORECAST WAS TO REWORD CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS ON TRACK. FIRST COMPLEX OF TS THAT TRAVELED ACROSS MI AND NORTHERN IN DIED AT THE CWA BORDER. NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IN. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IN ILL IS POSITIONED ALONG A WARM FRONT...WITH A COLD FRONT STILL OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN WI TO NW IA. STILL HAVE UPPER SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH SUPPORTING THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND SHORT TERM MODELS STILL PAINTING QPF OVERNIGHT. BEST CHCS STILL ARE TO THE WEST THOUGH WITH LIKELY POPS...AND JUST A CHC EAST TOWARDS MORNING. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ON THE RISE...WITH WESTERN OH UP AROUND 70 ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION(00Z-00Z)... FIRST MCS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA IS DYING OUT RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE EAST. IF IT REACHES CLE...IT SHOULD BE ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS. WL NEED TO INCLUDE A SHORT PD OF TSRA AT TOL/FDY EARLY TO ACCT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER COMPLEX WL DEVELOP OVER IL/NRN IN AND MOVE TOWARD THE WRN AREA AFTER 06Z AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WMFNT JUST S OF THE AREA. WITH THE NAM SHOWING AN INCREASING LLJ AND RUC MLCAPE VALUES RISING OVERNIGHT THINK THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WL PUT A TEMPO -TSRA GRP BTWN 07-11Z AT TOL AND FDY. OTHERWISE GENERALLY MVFR FOR ALL SITES. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY)... ATTM THE LARGE AREA OF LTNG AND TSTMS SHOULD SLIDE SE OF AREA WHERE CAPES HIGHEST AND AMS MOST UNSTABLE. HOWEVER ANOTHER S/WV AND CDFNT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TNGT AND THURSDAY AM. ATTM BASED ON TIMG OF FROPA WITH THE MODELS THE BEST CHANCES OF PCPN WILL BE TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY MAY GET TOO FAR SOUTH ON THURSDAY FOR MUCH ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS KEEP SOME QPF WILL CONT 30 POP. SOME PCPN COULD BE AROUND THU NIGHT AS BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE BACK NORTH. THREAT IS TOUGH FRI AND FRI NGT AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRI COULD BE WARM AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. OTHERWISE GUID OK. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... TIMING OF PCPN VERY TOUGH. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH A FRONT FOR TUE NIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT WITH THE AMS MOIST AND UNSTABLE THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF PCPN. GUID OK. WITH PLENTY OF WARM TEMPS AT 850 MB WE HAVE TO WATCH HIGHS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...MRD oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 735 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 .AVIATION(00Z-00Z)... FIRST MCS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA IS DYING OUT RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE EAST. IF IT REACHES CLE...IT SHOULD BE ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS. WL NEED TO INCLUDE A SHORT PD OF TSRA AT TOL/FDY EARLY TO ACCT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER COMPLEX WL DEVELOP OVER IL/NRN IN AND MOVE TOWARD THE WRN AREA AFTER 06Z AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WMFNT JUST S OF THE AREA. WITH THE NAM SHOWING AN INCREASING LLJ AND RUC MLCAPE VALUES RISING OVERNIGHT THINK THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WL PUT A TEMPO -TSRA GRP BTWN 07-11Z AT TOL AND FDY. OTHERWISE GENERALLY MVFR FOR ALL SITES. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY)... ATTM THE LARGE AREA OF LTNG AND TSTMS SHOULD SLIDE SE OF AREA WHERE CAPES HIGHEST AND AMS MOST UNSTABLE. HOWEVER ANOTHER S/WV AND CDFNT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TNGT AND THURSDAY AM. ATTM BASED ON TIMG OF FROPA WITH THE MODELS THE BEST CHANCES OF PCPN WILL BE TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY MAY GET TOO FAR SOUTH ON THURSDAY FOR MUCH ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS KEEP SOME QPF WILL CONT 30 POP. SOME PCPN COULD BE AROUND THU NIGHT AS BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE BACK NORTH. THREAT IS TOUGH FRI AND FRI NGT AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRI COULD BE WARM AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. OTHERWISE GUID OK. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... TIMING OF PCPN VERY TOUGH. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH A FRONT FOR TUE NIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT WITH THE AMS MOIST AND UNSTABLE THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF PCPN. GUID OK. WITH PLENTY OF WARM TEMPS AT 850 MB WE HAVE TO WATCH HIGHS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. $$ SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...MRD oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 934 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS S TIEROF USA WITH WEAK TROUGH FROM GREAT LAKES TO CENTAL MS VALLEY. CONVECTION DISSIPATING AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHACNE SE AND NONE REST OF AREA. DEW POINTS REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED...AND HAVE RAISED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NC MTS AND N NC FOOTHILLS FOR THIS REASON. WINDS QUITE LIGHT...AND HAVE ADJUSTED 21Z RUC GUIDANCE IN THIS DIRECTIONS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY FOG...WITH DENSE FOG MENTIONED IN NC MT VALLEYS. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO MATCH SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY...THEN TRENDED TOWARD PREVIOUS 12Z FORECAST. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 257 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... RIDGETOPS PROVIDING LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. CELLS MOVING VERY SLOWLY WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT SVR THREAT LOWER THAN FLOODING CHC. HAVE GONE WITH EARLY LIKELY POP NC FOOTHILLS/NC MTNS SOUTH AND WEST OF FRENCH BROAD...AND OVER SC/GA MTNS. SCT POP ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT BEST CHC FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE MTN VALLEYS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WILL YIELD TO SLIGHT LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A DIFFLUENT NORTHWEST...BUT STILL PRETTY WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. ALL IN ALL...DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH CHANGE TO OUR PERSISTENT SENSIBLE WEATHER...A CONTINUED THREAT OF SCATTERED DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ANOTHER DAY OF FTHL/PIEDMONT MAXES IN THE LOWER 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100. IT CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO MCS EVOLUTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND/OR FRIDAY BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING...WHETHER IT MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTHEAST IS STILL DEBATABLE. NOT THAT IT IS CORRECT...BUT THE 12 UTC GFS IS NOW SHOWING STRONG SIGNALS OF LINEAR DEEP CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE MTNS FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACRS THE CWFA BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME SUPPORT ALBEIT WEAKER ON THE 12 UTC NAM WITH S/WV PASSAGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL DIURNAL FOR THIS PERIOD. AS IN EARLIER RUNS...THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER/DEEPER WITH MAIN S/WV PASSAGE...WHICH DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...PLAN ON LEAVING CHC POPS AS IS UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... CWFA LOOKS TO COME UNDER S/WV RIDGING SATURDAY WITH DEEPER RH DISPLACED OFF TO OUR SOUTH. IT WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP WITH FTHL/PIEDMONT MAXES IN THE MID 90S. WITH THE ABSENCE OF THE BETTER RH AND LARGER SCALE SUPPORT...PLAN ON CONTINUING DIURNAL CHC POPS FOR JUST THE MTNS. LARGE UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD EVEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE CWFA SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A FEW MORE HOT DAYS. AGAIN...ANY DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCE WOULD LOOK TO BE ISOLATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IF NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSED. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DEWPOINT TRENDS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING REACHED. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 WITH TEMPS HEADING BACK TOWARD CLIMO AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN. AVIATION... TAFS START OFF WITH VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS XCPT KCLT WHERE TSRA STILL QUITE A DISTANCE AWAY. DO HAVE CB MENTION THERE. WILL AMD IF/WHEN CELLS APPROACH AIRFIELDS. GUIDANCE NOT CONSISTENT WITH MVFR FOG CHANCE OVERNIGHT...XCPT AT KAVL WHERE IFR FOG/CIGS LOOK LIKELY. DID INCLUDE MVFR FOG AT KHKY/KAND WHERE IT IS FAVORED ACCORDING TO CLIMO. RESTRICTIONS END QUICKLY...ABOUT 13Z...THU MORNING. VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAT sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1050 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... UNSTABLE ATMOS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW CAP ACROSS THE NRN SECTIONS THAT WAS FCST BY THE 00Z NAM. INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER THERE SO...WILL KEEP AFT POP AS IS WITH LIKELY FRENCH BROAD WEST AND CHC ELSEWHERE. MDLS STILL INDICATING NLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO UPSTATE AND NE GA SO STILL EXPECTING SIMILAR COVERAGE THERE AS YESTERDAY. WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. OBSERVED THICKNESS SCHEME HAS BEEN OVERDOING MAX TEMPS...SO GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... TODAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW SIGNS THAT CONVECTION MAY BE NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. ONE FACTOR IS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER TODAY...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL NOT BE ABLE TO COVER MUCH GROUND. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE LESS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SOMEWHAT LOOSELY ORGANIZED ON OUTFLOWS. THE SECOND FACTOR IS THE MID-LEVEL STABLE LAYER INDICATED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM NORTHERN NC (BOONE/ GREENSBORO/HICKORY.) IN FACT...THE KTNB AND KGSO SOUNDINGS ARE ALMOST CAPPED. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40 RANGE NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...WILL BUMP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NC MNTNS. WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME A PROBLEM LATER TODAY. PLAN TO ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS. THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA HAVE BEEN IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THESE LOCATIONS WERE LITERALLY SURROUNDED BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY...AND AM NOT SURE HOW MUCH LONGER THIS TREND WILL PERSIST. WILL CARRY 40 POPS ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THAT NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW AN MCS TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM EACH FEATURE A MID LEVEL SW TROUGH TRAVERSING THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS SLOWER...STRONGER...AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS SW...ALL OF WHICH MAY BE THE RESULT OF GRID- SCALE FEEDBACK. APPARENTLY AS A RESULT OF THESE DIFFERENCES...THE MODELS ALSO DIFFER WILDLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS PLOWING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED IN THE OHIO VALLEY. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THE HEALTHY POPS ADVERTISED FOR FRIDAY ARE WARRANTED. LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE PERSISTENT IN PUSHING THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND...SO THE CURRENT TREND OF LOWER WEEKEND POPS APPEARS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS ATTM. AVIATION... ONCE AGAIN...THE ONLY TAF SITE THAT GOES OUT WITH THE 0600 UTC PACKAGE TO SEE RAIN YDAY WAS KAVL. EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE THERE. OTHERWISE THE QUESTION IS WILL STRATUS DECK FORM EAST OF THE MTNS AGAIN THIS MORNING? CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AROUND THIS MORNING THAN LAST... AND THAT FLOW IS VERY LIGHT OUT OF THE NW IN THE LLVLS...DON/T SEE AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. THEREFORE WILL NOT BRING IN ANY LOW DECKS...BUT WL TAKE KAND/S VSBY DOWN TO 2 SM FOR A FEW HRS. WL CARRY THE USUAL CB GROUPS IN ALL TAFS FOR THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RWH sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 911 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 .UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED NEW FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS EVENING TO REMOVE TSRA CHANCES FROM NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. STABILITY IS BUILDING IN WITH SPC GRAPHICS INDICATING 100+ J/KG CIN AND SUBSIDENCE PER RUC VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SWRN WI WITH NO CIN. NOT IMPRESSED ON CHANCES BUT ALSO DIDNT WANT TO PULL THE POP. HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS NEB INTO SLATER IN IA. WITH SLATER POINTING SWRLY AND ERN NEB INCREASING...SIMPLY WANT TO MONITOR THE ACTIVITY OVER IOWA THIS EVENING. THINKING IS ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THIS IS WHY THE CHANCES OF TSRA WERE LEFT ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SWRN WI OVERNIGHT. OTHER INTERESTING SYSTEM IS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ON THE SD/NEB BORDER. FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS FROM THE 00Z RUC WOULD CARRY THIS COMPLEX EASTWARD. NCAR 5KM WRF MODEL TRACKS THE SYSTEM THROUGH IOWA OVERNIGHT WITH NERN IOWA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE BY MORNING. I LIKE THE TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WARM SECTOR INFLOW NORTH OF THE I-80 FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ WIND SHIFT. THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER LONGER LIVED SYSTEM LIKE LAST NIGHTS...ARRIVING AROUND SUNRISE IN THE FORECAST AREA. INTERESTING THAT THE NCEP MODELS...NAM/GFS AT 18Z BOTH DEVELOP AN MCS NEAR KABR FURTHER NORTH. 00Z RUC SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WITH A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF SD INTO SC MN BY 12Z. JUST UPSTREAM. WOULD APPEAR ANOTHER MEASURABLE EVENT VERY POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ BAUMGARDT wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 300 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR (WV) IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LVL RIDGING DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION. RUC40 1000-500MB STREAMLINES INDICATE THAT THE MEAN LAYER BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS GA...AND SUCH A POSITION CONTINUES SSE FLOW OVER THE JAX CWA TONIGHT. WE REMAIN UNSEASONABLY DRY AS THE KJAX 00Z RAOB REPORTED A PWAT OF ONLY 1.6 INCHES. WV SHOWS A SWATH OF DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT NOTE THAT AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IS BREAKING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO CREEP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE JAX CWA. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU SAT...THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN TODAY ACROSS THE SE REGION AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MEAN LAYER BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL...AND POSITION OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY PROVIDING LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND ALLOW FOR ANOTHER INLAND SEABREEZE MERGER. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS OUR GA ZONES THIS AFTN AS SUBSIDENCE WILL BE WEAKENING OVER THESE ZONES AND MOISTURE INCREASING. FRI THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS SHUNTS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AS A SFC BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SSW TO THE AREA AS WELL AS MORE MOISTURE WITH PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH INCREASING POPS FRI ACROSS THE BOARD WITH 40% INLAND TO 30% NEAR THE COAST. SAT THE SFC FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR GA ZONES WHICH WILL KEEP THE JAX CWA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED IN THE AFTN BY SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WLY SO AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...MAINLY WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED THE PREVIOUS DAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AOA CLIMO VALUES WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS IN THE MID 70S. THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S. .LONG TERM...SUN THRU WED...THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALLOWS THE LOW LVL BERMUDA RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER CENTRAL FL. THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL TAPER FROM 40-50% THIS WEEKEND...TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES OF 35-40% BY MID-WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE AOA CLIMO VALUES FROM THE LOW-MID 90S TO LOW-MID 70S. && .MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR THE OCCASIONAL NOCTURNAL SURGE NEAR 15 KNOTS ACRS THE GA WTRS. OTHERWISE THE ONLY OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM WILL BE POSSIBLE INCREASE IN EASTERLY SWELLS FROM A DEVELOPING WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINITY IN THIS SYSTEM ON TRACK AND POSSIBLE INTENSITY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 74 94 75 / 40 30 40 40 SSI 90 78 90 79 / 20 10 30 40 JAX 93 75 92 76 / 20 10 40 40 SGJ 90 78 90 78 / 20 10 30 30 GNV 95 74 93 75 / 40 20 40 40 OCF 94 74 93 75 / 30 20 40 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...ENYEDI MARINE/FIRE WX...HESS fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 253 AM EST THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM... MORE QN/S THEN ANSWERS THIS AM. SADLY...BULK OF CWA GETTING SPLIT BY CONVN W/VRY IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OVR NE IL ATTM AND RIGHT WHERE GFS INDICATED LAST NIGHT. OF NOTE IS DEEP OFB ANCHORED UPSTREAM W/LLJ ALIGNMENT INTO IT OVR IL WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT FOR SOME TIME THIS AM AS IT DIVES SEWD INTO WRN INDIANA. OF GREATER INTEREST IS MATURE SEVERE MCS ACRS NE NEB W/APPARENT WAKE LOW BEHIND IT. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE DVLPMNT OF THIS FTR TO SOME DEGREE BUT DETAIL RESOLUTION EXPECTANTLY POOR AND NOD TWD TIMING ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM MCV GIVEN TWD 06Z RUC/12KM NAM. ATTM DOUBT OFB WILL MOVE IF AT ALL AND LIKELY FOCUS SFC BASED DVLPMNT THIS AFTN WELL W ACRS IL. HWVR THAT SAID...OUTFLW BUBBLE IN PLACE INADV OF EJECTING NEB RIDGE RIDER VRY WELL COULD FIRE ELEVATED CONVN OVRTOP CWA LT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS MCV ENHANCED LLJ DVLPS W/STG ELEVATED THETA-E FLUX INTO ESP NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND WHICH FITS WITHIN GOING GFS/NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS TOO FAR N OVERNIGHT. 06Z 12KM NAM LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY WELL AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR LT THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LLJ SEGMENT ACRS IL LOOKS TO WKN LTR THIS AM AND SHLD RESULT IN RAPID DECAY OF ONGOING MCS AND CLOUD DEBRIS BY MID/LATE AM. THUS PROGGED INSOLATION WITHIN A BIT WARMER THERMAL RIDGE THEN YDA SHLD EQUATE TO LOW 90S FOR MOST. && .LONG TERM... NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE FRIDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE BIGGEST THING IS A FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING IS TO HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT. GFS80 HAS A LOW MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH DOWN INTO MICHIGAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DGEX HAS SUNDAY WET AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THEN IT MOVES THAT LOW NORTHEAST WHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL'S STORY FOR SUNDAY IS A LOW IN WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF US AND KEEPING SUNDAY DRY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WITH JUST THE DGEX SHOWING RAIN WITH A DIFFERING SCENARIO THAN OTHER MODELS, HAVE KEPT SUNDAY DRY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THAT FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN JUST EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO UP AROUND 80 FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION... DIFFICULT TAF CYCLE THIS AM W/CONVN SPLITTING CWA ATTM. MBE ELEMENT ANCHORED OVR NE IL RIGHT WHERE GFS SAID IT WOULD LAST NIGHT AND SHLD KEEP FOCUS FOR ADDNL DVLPMNT W OF TAF SITES REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PRIMARY EARLY PROBLEM WILL BE PENCHANT FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTION TWD DAYBREAK AS PRIOR SHIFT HAD ELUDED TO AND LEFT INTACT FOR THIS CYCLE ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLD SHIELD WILL LIKELY NOT ERODE SUFFICIENTLY TO PROMOTE LWR END. OTHERWISE SITUATION LT THIS AFTN AND EVENING VEXING W/CONFLICTING MODEL SIGNALS AND SVR MCS OVR NE. WILL PROB30 SBN FOR NOW W/CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...LOTHAMER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1100 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2005 .UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE FOR WINDS AND TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS AND REMOVAL OF WX/POPS TODAY. AT 17Z TEMPERATURE AT GOODLAND IS 103!! THE PAST 5 DAYS PERFORMANCE OF THE FWC/MET/MAV AND 850 TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT GOODLAND AROUND 108. LATEST RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 113 FOR THE AREA. GIVEN CURRENT START HAVE FOLLOWED THAT GENERAL IDEA. RECORDS IN JEOPARDY INCLUDE GOODLAND (109)...BURLINGTON (104)...MCCOOK (114)...HILL CITY (107)...YUMA (103)...TRIBUNE (106) AND COLBY (108). ALL-TIME JULY HIGHS IN JEOPARDY INCLUDE GOODLAND (111)...BURLINGTON (109)... AND TRIBUNE (108). MIN TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE 75 DEGREES FOR 5 COUNTIES AND WITH HIGHS GREATER THAN 105 I HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE COUNTIES LISTED BELOW TODAY. AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE CHANCES...NOT VERY EXCITING. WE DO HAVE SOME INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH FROM A FEW YEARS AGO INDICATED THAT AT LEAST NO SEVERE STORMS WERE RECORDED WITH 700 TEMPERATURES >17C. WITH THAT IN MIND...KEPT SILENT POPS WHERE THE 12ZETA PAINTED SOME QPF. THATS ABOUT IT...ENJOY THE HEAT. MAY NEED TO TWEAK HIGHS UP IF THEY GET MUCH MORE ABOVE 110. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ003...KSZ004...KSZ015...KSZ016. .NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ081. .CO...NONE. && $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 400 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .DISCUSSION... SFC FRONT IS INTO E UPR MI ATTM WITH ONLY A FEW SCT MID CLOUDS ALONG IT. OTHER THAN A VERY ISOLD STRONG CELL IN NEARSHORE WATERS OFF BIG BAY LATE YDY AFTN AND ANOTHER CELL THAT POPPED UP COUPLE HOURS AGO N OF SSM...THERE WAS NO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. PCPN OVR SCNTRL UPR MI LATE YDY MORNING INTO THE AFTN WAS LEFTOVERS FM MCS THAT CAME E OUT OF CNTRL MN YDY MORNING. A QUARTER OF AN INCH AROUND MENOMINEE COUNTY...OTHERWISE NO PCPN OVR CWA. LACKING DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AND STABILIZATION FM THE MORNING MCS TO THE SOUTH SEEMED TO BE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR PCPN. MOVING ON...LOOKING FOR THAT NEXT CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCED THE CONVECTION IS NOW INTO CNTRL LAKES WITH SHARP DRYING PROHIBITING ANY PCPN ALONG SFC FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH. CLUSTER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME ECHOES ARE PROGRESSING W TO E ACROSS WI...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. NEXT SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN IS OVR CNTRL ALBERTA WHICH WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPR LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOT RIDGE REMAINS OVR W CONUS WITH H5 CENTER OVR GRAND JUNCTION CO PER 00Z ROABS. LARGE AREA OF HIGH TEMPS OVR 100 DEGREES YDY OVR SW CONUS INTO CNTRL PLAINS. HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY RISE TODAY WITH HIGH PRES OVR CNTRL CANADA AND N PLAINS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. NNW FLOW PREVAILS AT SFC-H85 THIS AFTN WHICH SHOULD KEEP N TIER OF CWA MUCH COOLER THAN YDY WITH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR. H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C OVR N LK SUPERIOR TO +14C OVR WI BORDER SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 BY THE SHORE...TO LOW 80S ALONG WISCONSIN AND NEAR LK MI AS N WINDS ARE OFFSHORE. ALBERTA SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE VCNTY OF LK WINNEPEG BY THIS EVENING THEN REACH N LK SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING SWRLY LLJ AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SPUR ON A ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BEGINNING WITH 18Z RUN OF GFS YDY...MODELS HAVE SHARPLY TRENDED AWAY FM THAT SOLN...WITH PRIMARY LLJ NOW PROGGED WELL TO THE WEST IN THE DAKOTAS...CLOSER TO THE VERY WARM DAYTIME TEMPS. SINCE LLJ LOCATION CAN BE TIED TO AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING...IT MAKES SENSE THAT WITHOUT A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE BEST LLJ WOULD BE WELL TO THE WEST. MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY NIL FOR THE 06Z FRI-18Z FRI PERIOD...WHEREAS BEFORE AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.00 WERE COMMON ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF UPR MI. FOR NOW...WILL TREND TOWARD NO PCPN...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. PRESSURES WILL RISE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND ONSHORE. H85 TEMPS AROUND +12C ON AVERAGE SUPPORT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH A FEW 80S NEAR THE WI BORDER. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF GFS/NAM WITH TEMPS IN LWR 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S YIELD CAPES BTWN 500-1000J/KG WITH NO CIN. NAM INDICATES PCPN COULD OCCUR OVR INTERIOR WITH LL CONVERGENCE IN AFTN DUE TO LK BREEZES...BUT WITH NEUTRAL TO ONLY WEAK POSITIVE DYNAMICS FOR LIFT AND BEST MOISTURE RETURN FARTHER WEST PER H85 THETA-E ADVECTION...WILL SIDE WITH DRY CANADIAN/GFS/RUC 13 SOLN ATTM. MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SAT/SAT NIGHT FCST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS OFF 00Z MODELS. NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE GOOD SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. NOSE OF H85 JET IS MAINLY OVR MN LATE FRI NIGHT SO KEPT POPS OUT FOR FRI NIGHT AS MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF UPR MI. AS H85 JET VEERS WSW SAT MORNING SOME SHRA/TS COULD PUSH INTO W UPR MI AS ELEVATED CAPES ARE BTWN 500-1000J/KG AND H85-H7 LAPSE RATES RISE ABOVE 6.5C/KM. GFS/CANADIAN NOT AS BULLISH IN DRIVING PCPN E ON SAT SO ONLY ADDED POPS FOR W HALF OF CWA ATTM. INCREASED TEMPS AS S FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT BULK OF LAKE COOLING TO ALONG LK MI. BY SAT NIGHT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EMERGING WITH RESPECT TO PCPN CHANCES ALONG WARM FRONT THAT SHIFTS ACROSS CWA AS H85 TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AFFECTS THE UPR LAKES. CONSIDERING BACK TO A FEW DAYS AGO THIS HAS BEEN PERIOD FAVORED FOR PCPN...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE. DRY SHORT TERM DROUGHT PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ZONES LAST FEW WEEKS SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY MENTION OF LIKELY POPS IN ITSELF...BUT THIS MAY BE AN EVENT WHERE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RAINFALL SEEMS LIKELY...EVEN IF IT MAY NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE. UKMET/GFS HINT AT WAVE RIDING NE ALONG BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD DEFINETELY BOOST PCPN CHANCES SAT NIGHT FOR CNTRL/ERN ZONES. ONCE FRONT AND PCPN EXITS E CWA LATER SUN...A NW FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTN AND WITH H85 TEMPS NEARING +20C...A VERY WARM AFTN MAY BE IN STORE. INCREASED TEMPS INTO THE UPR 80S FOR NOW. A FEW LWR 90S ARE FEASIBLE IF PCPN CLOUDS ARE OUT OF HERE FAIRLY QUICK ON SUN MORNING AS GFS INDICATES. NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND SUN. PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRYING TO CHANGE TO ONE WITH MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS ALONG N TIER...INCLUDING UPR LAKES. STILL SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES TO SORT OUT WITH ADVANCING LOW PRES FM PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK SO DID NOT ADD ANY POPS TO TUE FCST ATTM DESPITE LATEST PROGS FM ECMWF/UKMET WHICH SUGGEST OTHERWISE. COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 130 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 .DISCUSSION... ISOLATED SHRA HAVE RECENTLY DVLPD OVR NWRN MO WHERE LATEST RUC ANLYS SHOWING STG 850 MB MOISTURE CNVG. MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVR NERN IL ATTM. OUTFLOW BNDRY FM THIS MCS MAY MOV SWWD INTO THE E-NERN PTN OF THE CWA LTR THIS MRNG AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN. VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVR ERN SD WL MOV SEWD THRU IA INTO NWRN IL BY 00Z FRI HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVR THE NERN PTN OF THE CWA THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVNG. SFC CDFNT WILL ALSO BE SAGGING SWD INTO NRN MO BY 00Z FRI. ETA...NAM MDL SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVR THE CWA THIS AFTN WITH HIGHEST K INDICES OF 43 TO 47 OVR THE NRN AND ERN PTN OF THE CWA ARND 00Z FRI. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RELATIVELY STG CAP OVR THE WRN PTN OF THE CWA WITH MDLS DEPICTING 700 MB TEMPS OF 12-14 DGRS C THIS AFTN. PLAN TO INCLUDE LOW POPS MAINLY THIS AFTN AND EVNG OVR THE NRN AND ERN PTN OF THE CWA WITH A DRY FCST OVR THE SWRN PTN OF THE CWA. WILL CONT EXCESSIVE HT WRNG TDA THRU SUN WITH THIS AFTNS MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PTNS OF N-NERN MO MAY BE A COUPLE OF DGRS COOLER DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LTR THIS MRNG INTO THIS AFTN. MAX TEMPS MAY BE A TAD COOLER ON FRI WITH CDFNT SAGGING SWD INTO SERN MO BY 00Z SAT PER GFS. ETA...NAM APRS TOO FAR S WITH CDFNT BY THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SFC WNDS WL BE OUT OF THE N-NE ON FRI...MID-UPR LVL PATTERN STILL LOOKS VRY WRM WITH 597 DM HGTS OVR WRN MO AT 500 MB AND LTL POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION. THIS MID-UPR LVL RDG WL CONT TO BLD EWD INTO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LTL CHC OF CONVECTION...AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM TODAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR AUDRAIN...BOONE...CALLAWAY...COLE...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN... GASCONADE...IRON...JEFFERSON...KNOX...LEWIS...LINCOLN... MADISON...MARION...MONITEAU...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...OSAGE... PIKE...RALLS...REYNOLDS...SHELBY...ST. CHARLES... ST. FRANCOIS...ST. LOUIS...ST. LOUIS CITY... STE. GENEVIEVE...WARREN...AND WASHINGTON. IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM TODAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR ADAMS IL...BOND IL...BROWN IL...CALHOUN IL...CLINTON IL... FAYETTE IL...GREENE IL...JERSEY IL...MACOUPIN IL... MADISON IL...MARION IL...MONROE IL...MONTGOMERY IL... PIKE IL...RANDOLPH IL...ST. CLAIR IL...AND WASHINGTON IL. && $$ GKS mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 256 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA HAS ALLOWED MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST THE REST OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES LOWER FROM THE FIRST OF THE WEEK DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. && .SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING I AM LOOKING A CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS IN YAVAPAI COUNTY THAT WILL SHORTLY MOVE INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. RUC AND NAM DEPICT INVERTED TROUGH AND VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM CLUSTER. MIGHT BE A BIT OVER DONE WITH THE QPF AND STRENGTH BUT STILL EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST AS IT MOVES INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE NORTH. HAVE UPPED POPS OVER MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE STILL LOOK FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA THROUGH OUT THE SHORT TERM WITH DIURNAL MAXIMUMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. MODELS CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MONSOON FLOW OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CAPE AND PW LOOK FAVORABLE AS WELL. REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL COME IN TO PLAY ON SATURDAY AND SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. CONCERN TO THINK ABOUT WHEN THIS OCCURS IN THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IN WHAT WILL BE VERY MOIST AIR. && .LONG TERM...MORE MESSY WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE EMILY-DRIVEN SURGE SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE. YESTERDAY...THE CONCERN WAS WHETHER OR NOT THE WESTERLIES WOULD GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO START SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE. TODAY...THE TREND IS LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ANSWER OF NO...WITH THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO BEING THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVERHEAD AND TRAPPING ALL THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH. THUS...WE NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A BIAS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST. NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. POINT FORECASTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION...SOME SHOWERS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN ALL APPROACH CORRIDORS AND NEAR KLAS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. && .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NV...NONE. .AZ...NONE. .CA...NONE. && $$ JACQUES/MORGAN nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD TO LONG TERM DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 500 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEX WEEK. PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS MORNING. CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE... SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL' MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM. UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT ITSELF SO THAT IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS. THE CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEDNESDAY (JUL 27). GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE RUNS. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF (THURS-SAT) OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .MARINE... LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .CLIMO... WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE 1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .MARINE...NONE. $$ SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...JJP/APB/RSH AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 408 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM(TODAY - FRIDAY NIGHT)... TODAY...WEAKENING H5 SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SCT/BKN MID DECK THROUGH LATE MORNING. BUF RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ABOUT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. RUC INDICATES ACTIVITY MAY REACH CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC HERE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. OVERALL A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. TONIGHT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY HIGHER. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NAM/GFS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT AS NAM HAS SPED UP FROPA WITH LATEST RUN. MOS POPS LOW BOTH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT DUE MAINLY TO LACK OF MOISTURE AS DYNAMICS FAIRLY STRONG FOR LATE JULY. WILL GO 20 POPS BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS AND WAIT FOR LATER RUNS TO REFINE POP AS I PREFER NOT TO USE THE "HIDDEN POP". RRM && .LONG TERM (SAT - WEDNESDAY)... SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BRINGING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL NY/NE PA. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE BACK IN ON MONDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THAT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN U.S. AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. JVA. && .AVIATION (21/06Z - 22/06Z)... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING (ELM) WHERE FOG MAY RESTRICT VSBY TO IFR/MVFR. THROUGH MIDDAY A SCT/BKN MID DECK WILL CROSS THE AREA THEN JUST SCT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5K FT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST. RRM && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 300 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR (WV) IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LVL RIDGING DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION. RUC40 1000-500MB STREAMLINES INDICATE THAT THE MEAN LAYER BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS GA...AND SUCH A POSITION CONTINUES SSE FLOW OVER THE JAX CWA TONIGHT. WE REMAIN UNSEASONABLY DRY AS THE KJAX 00Z RAOB REPORTED A PWAT OF ONLY 1.6 INCHES. WV SHOWS A SWATH OF DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT NOTE THAT AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IS BREAKING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO CREEP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE JAX CWA. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU SAT...THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN TODAY ACROSS THE SE REGION AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MEAN LAYER BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL...AND POSITION OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY PROVIDING LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND ALLOW FOR ANOTHER INLAND SEABREEZE MERGER. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS OUR GA ZONES THIS AFTN AS SUBSIDENCE WILL BE WEAKENING OVER THESE ZONES AND MOISTURE INCREASING. FRI THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS SHUNTS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AS A SFC BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SSW TO THE AREA AS WELL AS MORE MOISTURE WITH PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH INCREASING POPS FRI ACROSS THE BOARD WITH 40% INLAND TO 30% NEAR THE COAST. SAT THE SFC FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR GA ZONES WHICH WILL KEEP THE JAX CWA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED IN THE AFTN BY SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WLY SO AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...MAINLY WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED THE PREVIOUS DAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AOA CLIMO VALUES WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS IN THE MID 70S. THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S. .LONG TERM...SUN THRU WED...THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALLOWS THE LOW LVL BERMUDA RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER CENTRAL FL. THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL TAPER FROM 40-50% THIS WEEKEND...TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES OF 35-40% BY MID-WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE AOA CLIMO VALUES FROM THE LOW-MID 90S TO LOW-MID 70S. && .MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR THE OCCASIONAL NOCTURNAL SURGE NEAR 15 KNOTS ACRS THE GA WTRS. OTHERWISE THE ONLY OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM WILL BE POSSIBLE INCREASE IN EASTERLY SWELLS FROM A DEVELOPING WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINITY IN THIS SYSTEM ON TRACK AND POSSIBLE INTENSITY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 74 94 75 / 40 30 40 40 SSI 90 78 90 79 / 20 10 30 40 JAX 93 75 92 76 / 20 10 40 40 SGJ 90 78 90 78 / 20 10 30 30 GNV 95 74 93 75 / 40 20 40 40 OCF 94 74 93 75 / 30 20 40 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...ENYEDI MARINE/FIRE WX...HESS fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 940 AM EST THU JUL 21 2005 .UPDATE... CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CENTER AROUND MCS HOLDING TOGETHER ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH BUT APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING AT THIS TIME DESPITE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH MSAS LI'S AROUND -7 C ALREADY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CNTRL AND NE IL. STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN WI/N IL INTO SOUTHER LWR MI. KLOT RADAR SHOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW WORKING EAST APPROACHING JOLIET AND CHICAGO METRO AREA. THIS BOUNDARY AND CURRENT STORMS OVER IL WILL BE MOVING INTO WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE EAST...POSSIBLY BECOMING THE MAIN FOCUS FOR OUR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN AREAS. SVR WATCH ISSUED A BIT AGO UP TO THE IN/IL STATE LINE. WOULD EXPECT INSTABILITY TO INCREASE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC DEWPTS SITTING AOA 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS...COMBINED WITH TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING 80 IN WESTERN AREAS SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. 12Z NAM/6Z GFS DEPICT MID-UPR 70S DEWPTS TO THE WEST OF US THROUGH EARLY AFTN THEN SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR AREA...YIELDING LI'S -9 TO -11 C AND CAPES WELL OVER 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...BASED ON OBS...DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN MODELS SHOWING AT THIS TIME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE DEWPTS CLIMB SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE SETTING UP...BUT THINK MODELS MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT. REGARDLESS...SVR THREAT EXISTS...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION IN ZONES AND MONITOR TRENDS TO THE WEST. HWO HAS THINGS COVERED AT THIS TIME...SO WILL PLACE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SCT WORDING AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS FINE AT THIS TIME...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO OR ABOVE 90 IN MANY AREAS AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSIONS AVIATION/PREVIOUS UPDATE... UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS AM W/IMPRESSIVE UPSTREAM SVR MCS ACRS SRN MN AND NRN IA. AT LEAST SHRT TERM RUC INDICATIONS ALG W/06Z 12KM NAM PAINTING A REASONABLY SOLID FCST SCENARIO INTO THIS AFTN AND MORESO THIS EVENING. LTL TO WORRY ABT EARLY ON W/RAPIDLY DECAYING CONV CLUSTER OVR CNTRL INDIANA W/HIGH CLD SHIELD ERODING QUICKLY AND WHICH SHLD GIVE WAY TO SCT CU BY MID AM. HWVR BEYOND THAT...ATTN TURNS WWD W/INCOMING MCV AND ASSOCD COUPLED OFB/GRAVITY WAVE PACKET. WOULD SUSPECT CONVN TO MAINTAIN N OF SFC BNDRY AS GRAVITY WAVE CONTS PROPAGATING EWD ALG SFC BNDRY AND IN AGREEMENT W/09Z RUC. ENHANCED MID LVL MESOSCALE SW HANDLED SIMILARLY W/INCREASING DOWNSTREAM LL WIND RESPONSE XPCD AND GIVEN PRESENCE OF STG THETA-E GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OVR IL...SOME QN REMAINS ON HOW EARLY CONV DVLPMNT MAY OCCUR HERE. EARLIER LOOKING BTR AND W/12Z TAF ISSUANCE HAVE INSERTED TEMPO THUNDER FM 23Z/SBN TO 01Z/FWA TO START. THIS ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR IN ZONE TIMING ALTHOUGH IMPLIED CHC LOOKING GREATER TWD EVENING THEN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED. OTHERWISE POST OUTFLW PRESTORM DESTABILIZATION SIGNAL VERY MIXED W/09Z RUC INDICATION WELL N AND E OF 06Z NAM. THIS QUITE TROUBLING GIVEN INHERENT SVR POTENTIAL INADV OF MCV INDUCED MID LVL WIND MAX AND POTENTIAL FOR NEARBY OFB TO MIX NEWD THIS AFTN. WILL AWAIT 12Z DATA FOR BTR CONSENSUS. SHORT TERM... MORE QN/S THEN ANSWERS THIS AM. SADLY...BULK OF CWA GETTING SPLIT BY CONVN W/VRY IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OVR NE IL ATTM AND RIGHT WHERE GFS INDICATED LAST NIGHT. OF NOTE IS DEEP OFB ANCHORED UPSTREAM W/LLJ ALIGNMENT INTO IT OVR IL WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT FOR SOME TIME THIS AM AS IT DIVES SEWD INTO WRN INDIANA. OF GREATER INTEREST IS MATURE SEVERE MCS ACRS NE NEB W/APPARENT WAKE LOW BEHIND IT. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE DVLPMNT OF THIS FTR TO SOME DEGREE BUT DETAIL RESOLUTION EXPECTANTLY POOR AND NOD TWD TIMING ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM MCV GIVEN TWD 06Z RUC/12KM NAM. ATTM DOUBT OFB WILL MOVE IF AT ALL AND LIKELY FOCUS SFC BASED DVLPMNT THIS AFTN WELL W ACRS IL. HWVR THAT SAID...OUTFLW BUBBLE IN PLACE INADV OF EJECTING NEB RIDGE RIDER VRY WELL COULD FIRE ELEVATED CONVN OVRTOP CWA LT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS MCV ENHANCED LLJ DVLPS W/STG ELEVATED THETA-E FLUX INTO ESP NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND WHICH FITS WITHIN GOING GFS/NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS TOO FAR N OVERNIGHT. 06Z 12KM NAM LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY WELL AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR LT THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LLJ SEGMENT ACRS IL LOOKS TO WKN LTR THIS AM AND SHLD RESULT IN RAPID DECAY OF ONGOING MCS AND CLOUD DEBRIS BY MID/LATE AM. THUS PROGGED INSOLATION WITHIN A BIT WARMER THERMAL RIDGE THEN YDA SHLD EQUATE TO LOW 90S FOR MOST. LONG TERM... NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE FRIDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE BIGGEST THING IS A FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING IS TO HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT. GFS80 HAS A LOW MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH DOWN INTO MICHIGAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DGEX HAS SUNDAY WET AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THEN IT MOVES THAT LOW NORTHEAST WHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL'S STORY FOR SUNDAY IS A LOW IN WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF US AND KEEPING SUNDAY DRY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WITH JUST THE DGEX SHOWING RAIN WITH A DIFFERING SCENARIO THAN OTHER MODELS, HAVE KEPT SUNDAY DRY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THAT FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN JUST EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO UP AROUND 80 FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FISHER SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...LOTHAMER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 600 AM EST THU JUL 21 2005 .AVIATION/UPDATE... UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS AM W/IMPRESSIVE UPSTREAM SVR MCS ACRS SRN MN AND NRN IA. AT LEAST SHRT TERM RUC INDICATIONS ALG W/06Z 12KM NAM PAINTING A REASONABLY SOLID FCST SCENARIO INTO THIS AFTN AND MORESO THIS EVENING. LTL TO WORRY ABT EARLY ON W/RAPIDLY DECAYING CONV CLUSTER OVR CNTRL INDIANA W/HIGH CLD SHIELD ERODING QUICKLY AND WHICH SHLD GIVE WAY TO SCT CU BY MID AM. HWVR BEYOND THAT...ATTN TURNS WWD W/INCOMING MCV AND ASSOCD COUPLED OFB/GRAVITY WAVE PACKET. WOULD SUSPECT CONVN TO MAINTAIN N OF SFC BNDRY AS GRAVITY WAVE CONTS PROPAGATING EWD ALG SFC BNDRY AND IN AGREEMENT W/09Z RUC. ENHANCED MID LVL MESOSCALE SW HANDLED SIMILARLY W/INCREASING DOWNSTREAM LL WIND RESPONSE XPCD AND GIVEN PRESENCE OF STG THETA-E GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OVR IL...SOME QN REMAINS ON HOW EARLY CONV DVLPMNT MAY OCCUR HERE. EARLIER LOOKING BTR AND W/12Z TAF ISSUANCE HAVE INSERTED TEMPO THUNDER FM 23Z/SBN TO 01Z/FWA TO START. THIS ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR IN ZONE TIMING ALTHOUGH IMPLIED CHC LOOKING GREATER TWD EVENING THEN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED. OTHERWISE POST OUTFLW PRESTORM DESTABILIZATION SIGNAL VERY MIXED W/09Z RUC INDICATION WELL N AND E OF 06Z NAM. THIS QUITE TROUBLING GIVEN INHERENT SVR POTENTIAL INADV OF MCV INDUCED MID LVL WIND MAX AND POTENTIAL FOR NEARBY OFB TO MIX NEWD THIS AFTN. WILL AWAIT 12Z DATA FOR BTR CONSENSUS. && .SHORT TERM... MORE QN/S THEN ANSWERS THIS AM. SADLY...BULK OF CWA GETTING SPLIT BY CONVN W/VRY IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OVR NE IL ATTM AND RIGHT WHERE GFS INDICATED LAST NIGHT. OF NOTE IS DEEP OFB ANCHORED UPSTREAM W/LLJ ALIGNMENT INTO IT OVR IL WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT FOR SOME TIME THIS AM AS IT DIVES SEWD INTO WRN INDIANA. OF GREATER INTEREST IS MATURE SEVERE MCS ACRS NE NEB W/APPARENT WAKE LOW BEHIND IT. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE DVLPMNT OF THIS FTR TO SOME DEGREE BUT DETAIL RESOLUTION EXPECTANTLY POOR AND NOD TWD TIMING ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM MCV GIVEN TWD 06Z RUC/12KM NAM. ATTM DOUBT OFB WILL MOVE IF AT ALL AND LIKELY FOCUS SFC BASED DVLPMNT THIS AFTN WELL W ACRS IL. HWVR THAT SAID...OUTFLW BUBBLE IN PLACE INADV OF EJECTING NEB RIDGE RIDER VRY WELL COULD FIRE ELEVATED CONVN OVRTOP CWA LT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS MCV ENHANCED LLJ DVLPS W/STG ELEVATED THETA-E FLUX INTO ESP NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND WHICH FITS WITHIN GOING GFS/NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS TOO FAR N OVERNIGHT. 06Z 12KM NAM LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY WELL AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR LT THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LLJ SEGMENT ACRS IL LOOKS TO WKN LTR THIS AM AND SHLD RESULT IN RAPID DECAY OF ONGOING MCS AND CLOUD DEBRIS BY MID/LATE AM. THUS PROGGED INSOLATION WITHIN A BIT WARMER THERMAL RIDGE THEN YDA SHLD EQUATE TO LOW 90S FOR MOST. && .LONG TERM... NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE FRIDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE BIGGEST THING IS A FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING IS TO HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT. GFS80 HAS A LOW MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH DOWN INTO MICHIGAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DGEX HAS SUNDAY WET AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THEN IT MOVES THAT LOW NORTHEAST WHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL'S STORY FOR SUNDAY IS A LOW IN WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF US AND KEEPING SUNDAY DRY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WITH JUST THE DGEX SHOWING RAIN WITH A DIFFERING SCENARIO THAN OTHER MODELS, HAVE KEPT SUNDAY DRY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THAT FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN JUST EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO UP AROUND 80 FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...LOTHAMER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 253 AM EST THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM... MORE QN/S THEN ANSWERS THIS AM. SADLY...BULK OF CWA GETTING SPLIT BY CONVN W/VRY IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OVR NE IL ATTM AND RIGHT WHERE GFS INDICATED LAST NIGHT. OF NOTE IS DEEP OFB ANCHORED UPSTREAM W/LLJ ALIGNMENT INTO IT OVR IL WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT FOR SOME TIME THIS AM AS IT DIVES SEWD INTO WRN INDIANA. OF GREATER INTEREST IS MATURE SEVERE MCS ACRS NE NEB W/APPARENT WAKE LOW BEHIND IT. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE DVLPMNT OF THIS FTR TO SOME DEGREE BUT DETAIL RESOLUTION EXPECTANTLY POOR AND NOD TWD TIMING ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM MCV GIVEN TWD 06Z RUC/12KM NAM. ATTM DOUBT OFB WILL MOVE IF AT ALL AND LIKELY FOCUS SFC BASED DVLPMNT THIS AFTN WELL W ACRS IL. HWVR THAT SAID...OUTFLW BUBBLE IN PLACE INADV OF EJECTING NEB RIDGE RIDER VRY WELL COULD FIRE ELEVATED CONVN OVRTOP CWA LT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS MCV ENHANCED LLJ DVLPS W/STG ELEVATED THETA-E FLUX INTO ESP NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND WHICH FITS WITHIN GOING GFS/NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS TOO FAR N OVERNIGHT. 06Z 12KM NAM LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY WELL AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR LT THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LLJ SEGMENT ACRS IL LOOKS TO WKN LTR THIS AM AND SHLD RESULT IN RAPID DECAY OF ONGOING MCS AND CLOUD DEBRIS BY MID/LATE AM. THUS PROGGED INSOLATION WITHIN A BIT WARMER THERMAL RIDGE THEN YDA SHLD EQUATE TO LOW 90S FOR MOST. && .LONG TERM... NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE FRIDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE BIGGEST THING IS A FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING IS TO HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT. GFS80 HAS A LOW MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH DOWN INTO MICHIGAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DGEX HAS SUNDAY WET AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THEN IT MOVES THAT LOW NORTHEAST WHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL'S STORY FOR SUNDAY IS A LOW IN WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF US AND KEEPING SUNDAY DRY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WITH JUST THE DGEX SHOWING RAIN WITH A DIFFERING SCENARIO THAN OTHER MODELS, HAVE KEPT SUNDAY DRY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THAT FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN JUST EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO UP AROUND 80 FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION... DIFFICULT TAF CYCLE THIS AM W/CONVN SPLITTING CWA ATTM. MBE ELEMENT ANCHORED OVR NE IL RIGHT WHERE GFS SAID IT WOULD LAST NIGHT AND SHLD KEEP FOCUS FOR ADDNL DVLPMNT W OF TAF SITES REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PRIMARY EARLY PROBLEM WILL BE PENCHANT FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTION TWD DAYBREAK AS PRIOR SHIFT HAD ELUDED TO AND LEFT INTACT FOR THIS CYCLE ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLD SHIELD WILL LIKELY NOT ERODE SUFFICIENTLY TO PROMOTE LWR END. OTHERWISE SITUATION LT THIS AFTN AND EVENING VEXING W/CONFLICTING MODEL SIGNALS AND SVR MCS OVR NE. WILL PROB30 SBN FOR NOW W/CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...LOTHAMER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 800 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 .DISCUSSION... ZONE UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT. NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. STILL SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE. CURRENTLY THE SURFACE FRONT HAS EDGED INTO NORTHERN IOWA. SFC CONVECTION REMAINS CAPPED WITH WARM LOWER/MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. DOES LOOK LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AS SPEED CONFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER WEST AND NW IA IN THE H925-850 LAYER. JUST ABOVE THIS...ANY PARCEL LIFTED FROM ABOUT H800 IS PRETTY MUCH GOOD TO GO ACCORDING TO THE ETA WITH LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION AND CAPES AROUND 4K J/KG. GFS AND RUC MAINTAIN A CAPPING LAYER AROUND H7 AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION GIVEN VEERING H850 FLOW BY 06Z AND DECREASED CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. TURNS OUT INITIATING CONVECTION OVER IA MAY BE A MOOT POINT IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SD CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR A WHILE LONGER THIS EVENING. STEERING FLOW AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORF VECTORS WOULD BRING THIS ESE ALONG THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COULD MAKE IT INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHWEST. GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE POOLING AND EVAPOTRANS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING PUSHING DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 70S. DEW PTS WILL COME DOWN SOME LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT A QUITE WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO NOT BE AS WARM THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS IN MIND AND TO BRING US INTO BETTER COLLAB. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JAW ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 400 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .DISCUSSION... SFC FRONT IS INTO E UPR MI ATTM WITH ONLY A FEW SCT MID CLOUDS ALONG IT. OTHER THAN A VERY ISOLD STRONG CELL IN NEARSHORE WATERS OFF BIG BAY LATE YDY AFTN AND ANOTHER CELL THAT POPPED UP COUPLE HOURS AGO N OF SSM...THERE WAS NO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. PCPN OVR SCNTRL UPR MI LATE YDY MORNING INTO THE AFTN WAS LEFTOVERS FM MCS THAT CAME E OUT OF CNTRL MN YDY MORNING. A QUARTER OF AN INCH AROUND MENOMINEE COUNTY...OTHERWISE NO PCPN OVR CWA. LACKING DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AND STABILIZATION FM THE MORNING MCS TO THE SOUTH SEEMED TO BE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR PCPN. MOVING ON...LOOKING FOR THAT NEXT CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCED THE CONVECTION IS NOW INTO CNTRL LAKES WITH SHARP DRYING PROHIBITING ANY PCPN ALONG SFC FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH. CLUSTER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME ECHOES ARE PROGRESSING W TO E ACROSS WI...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. NEXT SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN IS OVR CNTRL ALBERTA WHICH WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPR LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOT RIDGE REMAINS OVR W CONUS WITH H5 CENTER OVR GRAND JUNCTION CO PER 00Z ROABS. LARGE AREA OF HIGH TEMPS OVR 100 DEGREES YDY OVR SW CONUS INTO CNTRL PLAINS. HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY RISE TODAY WITH HIGH PRES OVR CNTRL CANADA AND N PLAINS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. NNW FLOW PREVAILS AT SFC-H85 THIS AFTN WHICH SHOULD KEEP N TIER OF CWA MUCH COOLER THAN YDY WITH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR. H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C OVR N LK SUPERIOR TO +14C OVR WI BORDER SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 BY THE SHORE...TO LOW 80S ALONG WISCONSIN AND NEAR LK MI AS N WINDS ARE OFFSHORE. ALBERTA SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE VCNTY OF LK WINNEPEG BY THIS EVENING THEN REACH N LK SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING SWRLY LLJ AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SPUR ON A ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BEGINNING WITH 18Z RUN OF GFS YDY...MODELS HAVE SHARPLY TRENDED AWAY FM THAT SOLN...WITH PRIMARY LLJ NOW PROGGED WELL TO THE WEST IN THE DAKOTAS...CLOSER TO THE VERY WARM DAYTIME TEMPS. SINCE LLJ LOCATION CAN BE TIED TO AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING...IT MAKES SENSE THAT WITHOUT A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE BEST LLJ WOULD BE WELL TO THE WEST. MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY NIL FOR THE 06Z FRI-18Z FRI PERIOD...WHEREAS BEFORE AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.00 WERE COMMON ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF UPR MI. FOR NOW...WILL TREND TOWARD NO PCPN...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. PRESSURES WILL RISE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND ONSHORE. H85 TEMPS AROUND +12C ON AVERAGE SUPPORT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH A FEW 80S NEAR THE WI BORDER. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF GFS/NAM WITH TEMPS IN LWR 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S YIELD CAPES BTWN 500-1000J/KG WITH NO CIN. NAM INDICATES PCPN COULD OCCUR OVR INTERIOR WITH LL CONVERGENCE IN AFTN DUE TO LK BREEZES...BUT WITH NEUTRAL TO ONLY WEAK POSITIVE DYNAMICS FOR LIFT AND BEST MOISTURE RETURN FARTHER WEST PER H85 THETA-E ADVECTION...WILL SIDE WITH DRY CANADIAN/GFS/RUC 13 SOLN ATTM. MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SAT/SAT NIGHT FCST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS OFF 00Z MODELS. NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE GOOD SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. NOSE OF H85 JET IS MAINLY OVR MN LATE FRI NIGHT SO KEPT POPS OUT FOR FRI NIGHT AS MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF UPR MI. AS H85 JET VEERS WSW SAT MORNING SOME SHRA/TS COULD PUSH INTO W UPR MI AS ELEVATED CAPES ARE BTWN 500-1000J/KG AND H85-H7 LAPSE RATES RISE ABOVE 6.5C/KM. GFS/CANADIAN NOT AS BULLISH IN DRIVING PCPN E ON SAT SO ONLY ADDED POPS FOR W HALF OF CWA ATTM. INCREASED TEMPS AS S FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT BULK OF LAKE COOLING TO ALONG LK MI. BY SAT NIGHT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EMERGING WITH RESPECT TO PCPN CHANCES ALONG WARM FRONT THAT SHIFTS ACROSS CWA AS H85 TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AFFECTS THE UPR LAKES. CONSIDERING BACK TO A FEW DAYS AGO THIS HAS BEEN PERIOD FAVORED FOR PCPN...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE. DRY SHORT TERM DROUGHT PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ZONES LAST FEW WEEKS SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY MENTION OF LIKELY POPS IN ITSELF...BUT THIS MAY BE AN EVENT WHERE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RAINFALL SEEMS LIKELY...EVEN IF IT MAY NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE. UKMET/GFS HINT AT WAVE RIDING NE ALONG BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD DEFINETELY BOOST PCPN CHANCES SAT NIGHT FOR CNTRL/ERN ZONES. ONCE FRONT AND PCPN EXITS E CWA LATER SUN...A NW FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTN AND WITH H85 TEMPS NEARING +20C...A VERY WARM AFTN MAY BE IN STORE. INCREASED TEMPS INTO THE UPR 80S FOR NOW. A FEW LWR 90S ARE FEASIBLE IF PCPN CLOUDS ARE OUT OF HERE FAIRLY QUICK ON SUN MORNING AS GFS INDICATES. NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND SUN. PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRYING TO CHANGE TO ONE WITH MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS ALONG N TIER...INCLUDING UPR LAKES. STILL SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES TO SORT OUT WITH ADVANCING LOW PRES FM PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK SO DID NOT ADD ANY POPS TO TUE FCST ATTM DESPITE LATEST PROGS FM ECMWF/UKMET WHICH SUGGEST OTHERWISE. COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 855 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS AND ARE ALREADY SENT. HAVE UPPED POPS EVERYWHERE AS FEATURES ON SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW REAL GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS A FEATURE VERY NOTICEABLE ON WV IS ENHANCING THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. PWS GREATER THAN 2" NOTED ON SNDG AND WITH A H5 SHEAR AXIS OVER THE AREA BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT GETTING WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ESPECIALLY AROUND THE I 20 CORRIDOR AND A BETTER CHANCE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALSO HAS LED TO LOWERING TODAYS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S EVERYWHERE AS CONVECTION SHOULD START TO POP EARLY AND OVERALL CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA OUT OF THE MID 90S. /CAB/ && .PREV DISCUSSION...LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. FORECAST DIFFICULTY IN THE SHORT TERM REGARDS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...AND MIGRATION OF THIS ENERGY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MEAN MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WAS LIMITED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF A SFC-850MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR JACKSON. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER WEST TODAY AND THEY GENERATE MORE QPF AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH LIKELY POPS FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD HAVE LESS INFLUENCE AND PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD HAVE MORE IMPACT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON DESPITE A SEEMINGLY OVERWHELMING RIDGE PRESENCE. A PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES AND LACK OF CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD PROMOTE AN EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD TODAY WILL LIMIT HEATING ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING OVER OPPRESSIVE...BUT HEAT INDICES COULD STILL REACH 105 IN A FEW LOCATIONS. BY FRIDAY...A MORE DISTINCT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE CENTER OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH. MODELS SUGGEST GREATER INHIBITION WILL DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST AND THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE ALLOWING HOTTER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE "DELTA" REGION. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT AS TODAY'S CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A LOT TO SAY ABOUT GROUND MOISTURE AND FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES. /EC/ THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING TO MIND A SONG FROM THE 1980S. THE CENTER OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO INCREASE (MAYBE 22 DEGREES CELSIUS)...AND 1000-500 MB THICKNII VALUES FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY FEW PROBLEMS RISING TO THE WARMEST VALUES SEEN SO FAR THIS SUMMER. IN FACT...I SUSPECT THAT THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S...WE COULD BE FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. KEEPING ALL OF THIS IN MIND... HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NUDGED UPWARD A TOUCH AND HEAT WORDING WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SO...ARE YOU FEELING "HOT...HOT...HOT"? IF THAT WASN'T ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT...THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK SURFACE TROUGHINESS HANGING AROUND OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E VALUES IN THE UPPER 340K RANGE. THESE TWO FEATURES COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HEAT. INCREASED RIDGING AND HIGHER 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES/PARISHES. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THOUGH...IT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE "TROUGH" COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW A SCATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. WITH ALL OF THE INSTABILITY...I'M NOT SURE ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RATHER MARGINAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 3 (AS WELL AS 6) KM SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS MAY BE VERY "PULSEY" IN NATURE. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE SLIDING OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO AGAIN COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH MODERATING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND THICKNII VALUES...WE SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE) HEADING INTO MONDAY. IN WAKE OF THE RIDGE...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL TRY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS PANS OUT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT UNTIL I CAN SEE SOME SORT OF DISCERNIBLE TREND...I DON'T PLAN ON CHANGING MUCH THIS FAR OUT. /#10/ && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ CAB ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 130 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 .DISCUSSION... ISOLATED SHRA HAVE RECENTLY DVLPD OVR NWRN MO WHERE LATEST RUC ANLYS SHOWING STG 850 MB MOISTURE CNVG. MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVR NERN IL ATTM. OUTFLOW BNDRY FM THIS MCS MAY MOV SWWD INTO THE E-NERN PTN OF THE CWA LTR THIS MRNG AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN. VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVR ERN SD WL MOV SEWD THRU IA INTO NWRN IL BY 00Z FRI HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVR THE NERN PTN OF THE CWA THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVNG. SFC CDFNT WILL ALSO BE SAGGING SWD INTO NRN MO BY 00Z FRI. ETA...NAM MDL SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVR THE CWA THIS AFTN WITH HIGHEST K INDICES OF 43 TO 47 OVR THE NRN AND ERN PTN OF THE CWA ARND 00Z FRI. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RELATIVELY STG CAP OVR THE WRN PTN OF THE CWA WITH MDLS DEPICTING 700 MB TEMPS OF 12-14 DGRS C THIS AFTN. PLAN TO INCLUDE LOW POPS MAINLY THIS AFTN AND EVNG OVR THE NRN AND ERN PTN OF THE CWA WITH A DRY FCST OVR THE SWRN PTN OF THE CWA. WILL CONT EXCESSIVE HT WRNG TDA THRU SUN WITH THIS AFTNS MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PTNS OF N-NERN MO MAY BE A COUPLE OF DGRS COOLER DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LTR THIS MRNG INTO THIS AFTN. MAX TEMPS MAY BE A TAD COOLER ON FRI WITH CDFNT SAGGING SWD INTO SERN MO BY 00Z SAT PER GFS. ETA...NAM APRS TOO FAR S WITH CDFNT BY THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SFC WNDS WL BE OUT OF THE N-NE ON FRI...MID-UPR LVL PATTERN STILL LOOKS VRY WRM WITH 597 DM HGTS OVR WRN MO AT 500 MB AND LTL POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION. THIS MID-UPR LVL RDG WL CONT TO BLD EWD INTO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LTL CHC OF CONVECTION...AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM TODAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR AUDRAIN...BOONE...CALLAWAY...COLE...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN... GASCONADE...IRON...JEFFERSON...KNOX...LEWIS...LINCOLN... MADISON...MARION...MONITEAU...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...OSAGE... PIKE...RALLS...REYNOLDS...SHELBY...ST. CHARLES... ST. FRANCOIS...ST. LOUIS...ST. LOUIS CITY... STE. GENEVIEVE...WARREN...AND WASHINGTON. IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM TODAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR ADAMS IL...BOND IL...BROWN IL...CALHOUN IL...CLINTON IL... FAYETTE IL...GREENE IL...JERSEY IL...MACOUPIN IL... MADISON IL...MARION IL...MONROE IL...MONTGOMERY IL... PIKE IL...RANDOLPH IL...ST. CLAIR IL...AND WASHINGTON IL. && $$ GKS mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 937 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI... WILL UPDATE ZFP TO REMOVE POPS IN SE AND RAISE MAXES A FEW DEGREES. NO UPDATE TO WRKAFP. RUC HAD GOOD HANDLE ON SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT THIS MORNING. FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OVERNIGHT STORMS IN NE MT. A STORM FORMED JUST NE OF FALLON COUNTY THIS MORNING BUT HAS SINCE MOVED INTO ND. SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ND AROUND 16Z. SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND LACK OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM CANADIAN BORDER BUT MAIN EFFECT WILL BE SHIFT TO MORE NE WINDS OVER THE EAST. TEMPS WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. UNDER FULL SUN...EXPECT QUICK RISE AND GOOD MIXING SO WENT AHEAD AND RAISED TEMPS CLOSER TO 00Z MET GUIDANCE. DESPITE GOOD MIXING TODAY...WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG...SO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS NOT NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON. FIRE WX WATCH IN GOOD SHAPE FOR FRIDAY. WILL LOOK CLOSER AT DETAILS WITH NEW MODEL RUNS THIS AFTERNOON. ARTHUR .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED... QUICK AND DIRTY SUMMARY...INHERITED FORECAST TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MADE LITTLE CHANGES EXCEPT TO COOL TUE DOWN A BIT MORE. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO EXTEND POPS INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS SOME DYNAMICS AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY STILL BE IN THE MIX. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DETAILS...WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LEAVING NW SURFACE FLOW IN ITS WAKE ALONG WITH A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. SLGHT CHC IN SW MTNS FOR LATE DAY INTO NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAIN ENERGY STAYS NORTH SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE PULLED INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA SUNDAY AND 850H TEMPS STILL AROUND 31C OVER THE AREA. SO WARM ATMOSPHERE BUT CLOUD COVER WILL BE FACTOR. SO LOOKING FOR WARM START TO SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS AFTN INTO EVENING AS SHALLOW TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INHERITED PACKAGE COVERS THIS WELL. MONDAY ONWARD DETAILS...GFS HINTING AT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AREA WITH TROF AXIS AND MONSOON MOISTURE MAY CONT TO BE INVOLVED...SO WILL CONT POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DRYING TREND GOING INTO TUESDAY REFLECTED IN INHERITED PACKAGE LOOKS OKAY FOR NOW THOUGH MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY LINGER POPS EARLY TUESDAY AS WE TRY TO NAIL TIMING DOWN BETTER. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN EXPECTED TUE INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ALONG WEST COAST AND NW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA. TUE SHOULD BE COOLEST DAY OF WEEK WITH GRADUAL WARM UP INTO MID WEEK. ALWAYS NEED TO BE WARY OF NORTHWEST FLOW AS SHORT WAVES CAN SNEAK UP IN THERE...AND MODELS NOT TERRIBLY CONSISTENT YET. SO CONFIDENCE IN WED THRU FRI A LITTLE SHAKY AT THIS TIME. TESAR && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. HOOLEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 095 061/097 065/094 059/092 061/086 059/082 057/089 0/U 02/T 30/B 22/T 32/T 20/B 00/U LVM 097 052/092 053/092 051/088 053/082 051/081 050/085 0/U 02/T 30/B 23/T 32/T 20/U 00/U HDN 096 061/099 064/096 059/094 060/088 059/089 057/091 0/U 02/T 30/B 22/T 32/T 20/B 00/U MLS 095 062/098 066/095 061/094 063/089 059/084 058/087 0/U 02/T 20/B 12/T 32/T 10/B 00/U 4BQ 096 062/099 063/098 060/094 062/089 060/087 058/085 0/U 02/T 20/B 12/T 33/T 20/B 00/U BHK 092 055/094 061/093 059/091 061/086 058/081 057/082 2/T 02/T 20/B 12/T 32/T 20/B 00/U SHR 096 057/099 059/095 055/092 056/087 055/084 053/085 0/U 02/T 30/B 24/T 32/T 30/B 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68. WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 98. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 944 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 .DISCUSSION... HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. EXPECT AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE NIGHT TO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...DESPITE QUITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. NOT SO SURE THAT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE CWA...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THE LATEST RUC THOUGH INDICATES THAT CAPPING EFFECTS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH TIME...AND EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN BY THEN. && DEE .PREV DISCUSSION... 240 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND RESULTANT MAX TEMPERATURES AND EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP. IN THE SHORT TERM...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH 10M HEIGHT FALLS NOTED...ALONG WITH A 60KT SPEED MAX. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF ALONG A COLD FRONT EDGING SOUTHWARD. H70 TEMPERATURES INDICATED WE WERE WELL CAPPED...THUS WE'LL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TONIGHT FOR CONVECTION TO REALLY GET GOING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WHATEVER MCS DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST AND MOVE INTO IOWA...AND COULD POSSIBLY LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY MORNING...IN SIMILAR FASHION TO WHAT HAPPENED TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...WITH POINTS NORTH OF I80 ON THE COOLER SIDE AND POINTS OFF TO THE SOUTH STILL VERY HOT WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 AGAIN. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105. OFFICIALLY...TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY...WE ALSO NEED NIGHTTIME LOWS AROUND 80 OR ABOVE. THUS...WE'RE NOT EXPECTING TO MEET THOSE CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...THEREFORE WE'LL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE ZFP AND HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACTS IN THE HWO. THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT SEEMS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'RE EXPECTING TONIGHT...WITH THE RING OF FIRE REDEVELOPING IN SIMILAR FASHION AS IT DOES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA WITH A SIGNIFICANT CAP EXPECTED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MCS DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND ROLL EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA. THIS SECOND MCS PERHAPS DEVELOPS JUST A BIT FURTHER DEEPER INTO OUR CWFA THOUGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN DRIVE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO OUR CWA AND COULD POSE QUITE A CHALLENGE IN DEFINING TEMPERATURES. AGAIN AM EXPECTING COOLER TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. LOOKING FOR HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 FOR JUST ABOVE ALL AREAS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR...BUT PERHAPS JUST A BIT COOLER ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MOVE IN. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER BASED ON JUST A FEW MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED. WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS NIGHTTIME LOWS DURING THAT TIME WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. LOOKS LIKE RELIEF IS IN SIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY MAKES A DECENT PUSH INTO THE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. THAT LOOKS LIKE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (BEYOND THE SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT). THE FRONT PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DEWALD ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 256 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA HAS ALLOWED MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST THE REST OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES LOWER FROM THE FIRST OF THE WEEK DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. && .SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING I AM LOOKING A CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS IN YAVAPAI COUNTY THAT WILL SHORTLY MOVE INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. RUC AND NAM DEPICT INVERTED TROUGH AND VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM CLUSTER. MIGHT BE A BIT OVER DONE WITH THE QPF AND STRENGTH BUT STILL EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST AS IT MOVES INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE NORTH. HAVE UPPED POPS OVER MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE STILL LOOK FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA THROUGH OUT THE SHORT TERM WITH DIURNAL MAXIMUMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. MODELS CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MONSOON FLOW OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CAPE AND PW LOOK FAVORABLE AS WELL. REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL COME IN TO PLAY ON SATURDAY AND SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. CONCERN TO THINK ABOUT WHEN THIS OCCURS IN THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IN WHAT WILL BE VERY MOIST AIR. && .LONG TERM...MORE MESSY WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE EMILY-DRIVEN SURGE SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE. YESTERDAY...THE CONCERN WAS WHETHER OR NOT THE WESTERLIES WOULD GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO START SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE. TODAY...THE TREND IS LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ANSWER OF NO...WITH THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO BEING THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVERHEAD AND TRAPPING ALL THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH. THUS...WE NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A BIAS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST. NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. POINT FORECASTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION...SOME SHOWERS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN ALL APPROACH CORRIDORS AND NEAR KLAS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. && .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NV...NONE. .AZ...NONE. .CA...NONE. && $$ JACQUES/MORGAN nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1045 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .UPDATE...WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN NY. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WIDELY SCT SHWRS ACROSS PTNS OF SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN FINGER LKS AND ACTIVITY IS BECMG MORE SCT. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC OF ANOTHER SHWR INTO ERLY AFTN JUST FOR CATT/ALLEGANY COUNTIES. REST OF REGION MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS OR PTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTN. TEMPS LOWERED JUST A TAD IN A FEW ZNS WITH WINDS BECMG WESTERLY BEHIND BNDRY. .SYNOPSIS... WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEX WEEK. PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS MORNING. CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE... SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL' MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM. UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT ITSELF SO THAT IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS. THE CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEDNESDAY (JUL 27). GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE RUNS. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF (THURS-SAT) OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .MARINE... LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .CLIMO... WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE 1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .MARINE...NONE. $$ UPDATE...JJP SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...JJP/APB/RSH AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 950 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM(TODAY - FRIDAY NIGHT)... UPDATE - BATCH OF WEAKENING -SHRA OVER STEUBEN CNTY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. GRIDS HAVE SLGT CHC FOR THIS AREA THIS MRNG WHICH LOOKS GOOD. THIS AFTN XPCT THE CLD BAND ASSCD WITH THE DYING -SHRA TO MOVE ESE ACRS THE FCST AREA WHILE DIMINISHING, SO THE PARTLY SUNNY FCST ALSO LOOKS FINE. APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH CIN TO OVERCOME FOR CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT THIS AFTN ACRS E/SE ZONES. LAMP DATA SUGGEST MAXES A FEW DEG COOLER THAN CRNTLY FCST, BUT CRNT FCST MAXES ARE SUPPORTED BY 925 MB TEMPS XPCTD FOR THIS AFTN. WE MAY TRIM MAXES BY A FEW DEG FOR TDA, OTRW LTL CHG TO CRNT FCST. PREV AFD BLO. TODAY...WEAKENING H5 SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SCT/BKN MID DECK THROUGH LATE MORNING. BUF RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ABOUT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. RUC INDICATES ACTIVITY MAY REACH CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC HERE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. OVERALL A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. TONIGHT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY HIGHER. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NAM/GFS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT AS NAM HAS SPED UP FROPA WITH LATEST RUN. MOS POPS LOW BOTH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT DUE MAINLY TO LACK OF MOISTURE AS DYNAMICS FAIRLY STRONG FOR LATE JULY. WILL GO 20 POPS BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS AND WAIT FOR LATER RUNS TO REFINE POP AS I PREFER NOT TO USE THE "HIDDEN POP". RRM && .LONG TERM (SAT - WEDNESDAY)... SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BRINGING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL NY/NE PA. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE BACK IN ON MONDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THAT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN U.S. AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. JVA. && .AVIATION (21/06Z - 22/06Z)... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING (ELM) WHERE FOG MAY RESTRICT VSBY TO IFR/MVFR. THROUGH MIDDAY A SCT/BKN MID DECK WILL CROSS THE AREA THEN JUST SCT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5K FT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST. RRM && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 855 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .UPDATE...ISSUED AN EARLY UPDATE TO COVER SCT SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER...MOVING INTO FINGER LKS REGION. .SYNOPSIS... WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEX WEEK. PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS MORNING. CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE... SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL' MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM. UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT ITSELF SO THAT IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS. THE CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEDNESDAY (JUL 27). GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE RUNS. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF (THURS-SAT) OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .MARINE... LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .CLIMO... WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE 1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .MARINE...NONE. $$ UPDATE...JJP SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...JJP/APB/RSH AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD TO LONG TERM DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 500 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEX WEEK. PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS MORNING. CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE... SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL' MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM. UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT ITSELF SO THAT IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS. THE CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEDNESDAY (JUL 27). GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE RUNS. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF (THURS-SAT) OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .MARINE... LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .CLIMO... WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE 1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .MARINE...NONE. $$ SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...JJP/APB/RSH AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 408 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM(TODAY - FRIDAY NIGHT)... TODAY...WEAKENING H5 SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SCT/BKN MID DECK THROUGH LATE MORNING. BUF RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ABOUT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. RUC INDICATES ACTIVITY MAY REACH CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC HERE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. OVERALL A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. TONIGHT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY HIGHER. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NAM/GFS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT AS NAM HAS SPED UP FROPA WITH LATEST RUN. MOS POPS LOW BOTH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT DUE MAINLY TO LACK OF MOISTURE AS DYNAMICS FAIRLY STRONG FOR LATE JULY. WILL GO 20 POPS BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS AND WAIT FOR LATER RUNS TO REFINE POP AS I PREFER NOT TO USE THE "HIDDEN POP". RRM && .LONG TERM (SAT - WEDNESDAY)... SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BRINGING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL NY/NE PA. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE BACK IN ON MONDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THAT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN U.S. AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. JVA. && .AVIATION (21/06Z - 22/06Z)... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING (ELM) WHERE FOG MAY RESTRICT VSBY TO IFR/MVFR. THROUGH MIDDAY A SCT/BKN MID DECK WILL CROSS THE AREA THEN JUST SCT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5K FT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST. RRM && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 245 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEX WEEK. PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS MORNING. CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE... SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL' MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM. UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION... EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .MARINE... LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .CLIMO... WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE 1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .MARINE...NONE. $$ SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...JJP/APB AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1004 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY DURING THE EVENING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE DROPPED AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... ISOLD CONVECTION REMAINS PACKED ACROSS THE RIDGES AND OVER THE SE WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OVER THE CWA ATTM IN WAKE OF WORKED OVER ATMOS FROM TUE TSRA. GIVEN BEST INSTAB OVER THE SE AND ONLY WEAK MCON PLAN TO HAVE POP GRADIENT FROM LOW CHC NW TO 40ISH SE FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS EVENING. RUC THEN SHOWS LACK OF MUCH PRECIP OTHER THAN ISOLD SHRA OVERNGT SO WILL CONT WITH LITTLE CHC AFTER MIDNGT. WILL THROW IN SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY W PER RH AND DECENT FOG STAB VALUES OTRW PC WARM/HUMID WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S. LINGERING LEE TROF APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCTD CONVECTION THU AS WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION RETURNS ESPCLY SRN/SW ZONES. THIS IN COMBO WITH EVEN HIGHER PWATS...DECENT CAPE AND LIGHT S/SW FLOW SUPPORTS AT LEAST WDLY SCTD TSRA...SO CHCY POPS ESPCLY E ALONG LEE TROF CONVERGENCE. HIGHS GNRLY LOW/MID 90S WHICH MAY AGAIN PUSH INDICES CLOSE TO ADVSRY LEVELS WELL SE OF THE TRIAD. LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THU EVENING ALTHO LOOKS LIKE DIURNAL NATURE WILL CUT OFF COVERAGE OVERNGT PER DRIER NAM/CANADIAN SOLNS. WILL UP CHCS SOME IN THE EVENING AND GO WITH LOW END CHC OVRNGT TO MATCH BETTER...OTRW 30-40 POP. MODELS SHARPEN 5H TROF A BIT FRI WITH THE GFS INDICATING ENHANCED LIFT ESPCLY ERN HALF FRI AFTN UNDER HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. SINCE OTHER GUIDANCE WEAKER...WILL ONLY RAISE POPS A NOTCH...GNRLY BELOW GFS VALUES SINCE LIKELY OVERDONE AT THIS POINT. TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MAY BE CLOSE TO NPW LEVELS SE IF PRECIP/CLOUDS END UP LESS. SHRA LINGERS INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE APCH OF NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EDGES DEEP RH S OF THE AREA SAT MORNING. IN FACT APPEARS COULD END UP IN BETWEEN THE TWO BY SAT AFTN WITH WEAK COMPRESSION BOOSTING TEMPS A CAT HIGHER THAN MOS PENDING CLOUDS. THUS PLAN TO CONFINE ANY SLGT CHC POPS TO MAINLY THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAINS FOR NOW. OTRW PLAN TO BOOST TEMPS AGAIN WITH SOME UPR 90S PSBL SE THIRD SAT AFTN. WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT OVER OR JUST N OF THE REGION SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WHILE MAJORITY OF DEEP RH LIKELY SHIFTS TO THE S UNDER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID ATLC. MAY STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE CHCS ESPCLY SRN ZONES SAT EVENING...OTRW WILL TAPER POPS OFF SAT NGT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL E/NE FLOW DEVELOPS. CENTRAL STATES HEAT DOME/RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD E LATER SUNDAY THRU TUE BEFORE RIDGING FLATTENS WED AHEAD OF NEXT APCHG S/W TROF FROM THE NW. NW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MON ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAVE A FAINT WEAKNESS FOR PSBL MCS FEATURES TO DIVE SE TOWARD THE AREA THRU MONDAY NGT. SINCE IFFY AS TO SRN EXTENT...WILL TIME SLGT CHC TSRA LATE SUNDAY AND AGAIN DURING MON AS CAP MAY BE WEAKER BY THEN. OTRW INCRSG HEAT FOR EARLY WEEK WITH SOME UPR 90S/NR 100 PSBL CENTRAL/SRN TIER MON-TUE WHEN 85H VALUES PUSH 22-24C UNDER WEAK W/SW FLOW. COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH LATE WED BUT LIKELY SLOWER THAN GFS GIVEN STRENGTH OF RIDGE AND RESIDUAL HEATING. WILL INCLUDE A CHC POP WED AFTN FOR PREFRONTAL RH WITH TEMPS SLGHTLY COOLER ESPCLY TRIAD ZONES. AVIATION... ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS FROM MARION NC TO STUART VA THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND AREA DEVELOPING NEAR SEA BREEZE FRONT. LAPS INDICATED SOME SFC CONVERGENCE AT 17Z OVER THE SANDHILLS. ISOLD TO SCT MVFR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED AFT 20Z. AREAS OF FOG AND HAZE FORMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT GENERALLY AFT 09Z WITH WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS. ADDITIONAL DIURNAL MVFR CONVECTION THURSDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RHJ nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1050 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR I-71 CORRIDOR WITH MESO HIGH BACK OVER INDIANA/NW OHIO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SKIES MIXING OUT EXCEPT FOR NEAR OUTFLOW WHERE ATTM CLOUDS (MID LEVEL CLOUDS) ARE ENHANCING AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO HINTS A WAVE TO THE SW OF CINCINNATI HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO BUMP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO AND TO LOWER POPS WITH A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE. CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DIED OUT. NAM AND RUC SHOWING SINKING MOTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME LIFT TO THE SW AND NE OF CWA WITH WEAK WAVES IN THE NW FLOW. BOTH MODELS SHOWING BETTER THAN 4000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST OR SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA THIS AFT/EVE. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO IS THE RUC SHOWS A CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL LEAVE IN 30 POPS WITH MESO HIGH...GENERAL SYNOPTIC SINKING MOTION AND CAP AS LIMITING FACTORS. TIPTON && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 615 AM EDT JUL 21 2005) AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER NRN OH AND CNTRL IN HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO FAVORABLE LO LVL JET AND CONVERGENCE AHD OF MID LVL S/W. THIS S/W TO PIVOT E THRU OH EARLY TDA AND WEAKEN. EXPECT STORMS TO TRACK ACRS TAF SITES AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EARLY TDA. MINOR S/W RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY S/W TDA SHUD PROVIDE A TEMPORARY DRY PERIOD. AMS TO DESTABALIZE DURG THE AFTN WITH SBCAPES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4000 J/KG TDA AND ALTHO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LACKING HAVE A CONTD MENT OF TSTMS. UPPER LEVEL FLO TO TURN A LTL MORE NWRLY TONIGHT WITH NEXT SIGNIFICANT S/W TO AFFECT THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WL MENT TSTMS LATE IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES IN THE 08Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. POTENT SHORT WAVES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS ILN CWA TO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY BY FRIDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR. WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OHIO...AM INCREASING TODAY'S POPS TO 50% NORTH OF I-70...AND INCREASING TO 40% SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SHORT LULL TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE COMES INTO PLAY BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT...THEN 30% ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON FRIDAY...THOUGH NOT AS LOW AS ETA GUIDANCE. LOWERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH SOME CLEARING LIKELY. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... UPPER PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR SOUTH. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA INTO A VERY WARM AND STICKY PATTERN WITH PERIODIC SHOTS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT FALLING BELOW 70 AT TIMES. THE STICKIEST AND HOTTEST DAYS LOOK LIKE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS 500 HEIGHTS GO ABOVE 590 DM. CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO TIME AS IT WILL BE BOTH NOCTURNAL AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING DOWN IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TIPTON && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 1052 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 .SHORT TERM UPDATE (TONIGHT)... ONLY UPDATE MADE TO FORECAST WAS TO REWORD CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS ON TRACK. FIRST COMPLEX OF TS THAT TRAVELED ACROSS MI AND NORTHERN IN DIED AT THE CWA BORDER. NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IN. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IN ILL IS POSITIONED ALONG A WARM FRONT...WITH A COLD FRONT STILL OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN WI TO NW IA. STILL HAVE UPPER SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH SUPPORTING THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND SHORT TERM MODELS STILL PAINTING QPF OVERNIGHT. BEST CHCS STILL ARE TO THE WEST THOUGH WITH LIKELY POPS...AND JUST A CHC EAST TOWARDS MORNING. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ON THE RISE...WITH WESTERN OH UP AROUND 70 ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION(00Z-00Z)... FIRST MCS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA IS DYING OUT RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE EAST. IF IT REACHES CLE...IT SHOULD BE ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS. WL NEED TO INCLUDE A SHORT PD OF TSRA AT TOL/FDY EARLY TO ACCT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER COMPLEX WL DEVELOP OVER IL/NRN IN AND MOVE TOWARD THE WRN AREA AFTER 06Z AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WMFNT JUST S OF THE AREA. WITH THE NAM SHOWING AN INCREASING LLJ AND RUC MLCAPE VALUES RISING OVERNIGHT THINK THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WL PUT A TEMPO -TSRA GRP BTWN 07-11Z AT TOL AND FDY. OTHERWISE GENERALLY MVFR FOR ALL SITES. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY)... ATTM THE LARGE AREA OF LTNG AND TSTMS SHOULD SLIDE SE OF AREA WHERE CAPES HIGHEST AND AMS MOST UNSTABLE. HOWEVER ANOTHER S/WV AND CDFNT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TNGT AND THURSDAY AM. ATTM BASED ON TIMG OF FROPA WITH THE MODELS THE BEST CHANCES OF PCPN WILL BE TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY MAY GET TOO FAR SOUTH ON THURSDAY FOR MUCH ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS KEEP SOME QPF WILL CONT 30 POP. SOME PCPN COULD BE AROUND THU NIGHT AS BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE BACK NORTH. THREAT IS TOUGH FRI AND FRI NGT AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRI COULD BE WARM AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. OTHERWISE GUID OK. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... TIMING OF PCPN VERY TOUGH. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH A FRONT FOR TUE NIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT WITH THE AMS MOIST AND UNSTABLE THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF PCPN. GUID OK. WITH PLENTY OF WARM TEMPS AT 850 MB WE HAVE TO WATCH HIGHS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...MRD oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 735 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 .AVIATION(00Z-00Z)... FIRST MCS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA IS DYING OUT RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE EAST. IF IT REACHES CLE...IT SHOULD BE ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS. WL NEED TO INCLUDE A SHORT PD OF TSRA AT TOL/FDY EARLY TO ACCT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER COMPLEX WL DEVELOP OVER IL/NRN IN AND MOVE TOWARD THE WRN AREA AFTER 06Z AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WMFNT JUST S OF THE AREA. WITH THE NAM SHOWING AN INCREASING LLJ AND RUC MLCAPE VALUES RISING OVERNIGHT THINK THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WL PUT A TEMPO -TSRA GRP BTWN 07-11Z AT TOL AND FDY. OTHERWISE GENERALLY MVFR FOR ALL SITES. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY)... ATTM THE LARGE AREA OF LTNG AND TSTMS SHOULD SLIDE SE OF AREA WHERE CAPES HIGHEST AND AMS MOST UNSTABLE. HOWEVER ANOTHER S/WV AND CDFNT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TNGT AND THURSDAY AM. ATTM BASED ON TIMG OF FROPA WITH THE MODELS THE BEST CHANCES OF PCPN WILL BE TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY MAY GET TOO FAR SOUTH ON THURSDAY FOR MUCH ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS KEEP SOME QPF WILL CONT 30 POP. SOME PCPN COULD BE AROUND THU NIGHT AS BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE BACK NORTH. THREAT IS TOUGH FRI AND FRI NGT AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRI COULD BE WARM AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. OTHERWISE GUID OK. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... TIMING OF PCPN VERY TOUGH. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH A FRONT FOR TUE NIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT WITH THE AMS MOIST AND UNSTABLE THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF PCPN. GUID OK. WITH PLENTY OF WARM TEMPS AT 850 MB WE HAVE TO WATCH HIGHS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. $$ SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...MRD oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1125 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... WEAK MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PA THIS MORNING. RUC AND ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CAP...IN CONTRAST TO WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THUS...GIVEN THE MCV AS A TRIGGER AND INCREASING MOISTURE (LAYER PWS INCREASING TO 1.5"+) WITH MOISTURE SURGE OVER WESTERN PA...WILL EXPAND POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INCLUDE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME GIVEN WEAK SHEAR PROFILE...BUT GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND EASTWARD PROPOGATION AT TIME OF MAX HEATING...WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY PULSING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 238 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... NO SHORTAGE OF WORRIES IN THE NEAR TERM...AS WHAT WAS GOING TO BE A PRETTY NICE/EASY WX DAY FOR CENTRAL PA HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY THE APPROACH OF AN MCS THAT FORMED LAST EVENING OVER LWR MI AND NRN IN. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE NOW ALL THE WAY INTO NRN OH AND COMING ON-SHORE FROM LK ERIE AS WE SPEAK. THE UPPER FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE FAVOR THIS GUY DROPPING TO THE SE THRU 12Z...BUT IT MAY BRUSH THE WRN FRINGES OF THE CWA BEFORE THAT. WILL ALLOW FOR THIS BY ADDING CHC POPS TO THE EXTREME WRN AREAS THIS MORNING...AND HOLDING THEM IN THE LAURELS THRU THE DAY...BUT DIPPING THEM TO 20S IN THE NWRN MTS/PLATEAU IN THE AFTN. THE DECENT CAP OVERHEAD (+8 TO +10C AT 7H) SHOULD LIMIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...AND MAY KEEP MUCH THUNDER FROM OCCURRING. BUT WITH THINGS ALREADY GOING GOOD JUST TO OUR NW...WL MENTION THUNDER AS WELL. THE ADDITION OF SOME CLOUDS/DEBRIS FROM THE MCS WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED AS WELL. WILL KEEP MAXES BLO 90 IN MOST LOCALES...EXCEPT THE LWR SUSQ. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN SHOULD DIE AWAY FAST EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHC POP IN THE SW FOR THE EVENING...THEN MAKE IT PRECIP FREE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD START OUT DRY...TOO. BUT...A FAST (AND EVER-FASTER-PROGGED) MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME. OUR CAP WILL BE A BIT WEAKER ON FRIDAY (+6-8C)...SO WILL CARRY A CHC POP FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHCS FOR THE REST OF FRI NITE. DANGELO LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... MAKE A MINOR TWEAK OR TWO TO POPS ON SAT/NITE TO GO WITH EVER-FASTER TREND OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT...BUT OVERALL NO REAL CHANGES MADE BEYOND THAT. CURR FCST IS GOOD WITH BIG PICTURE. INTERESTING PATTERN SHIFT MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE FCST TIME FRAME...AND MAY LEAD TO SUB-NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE MONTH - WITH MREF MEAN 5H HEIGHTS HINTING THAT AN UPPER TROF WL DIG OVER THE ERN CONUS. DANGELO AVIATION... SOME MID AND HI CLDS TODAY...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD HOLD TOGETHER...BUT MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE. MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY WILL BE VFR. ONCE SUN SETS TONIGHT...AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WORK IN...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN BR. MARTIN && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEVOIR pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 934 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS S TIEROF USA WITH WEAK TROUGH FROM GREAT LAKES TO CENTAL MS VALLEY. CONVECTION DISSIPATING AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHACNE SE AND NONE REST OF AREA. DEW POINTS REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED...AND HAVE RAISED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NC MTS AND N NC FOOTHILLS FOR THIS REASON. WINDS QUITE LIGHT...AND HAVE ADJUSTED 21Z RUC GUIDANCE IN THIS DIRECTIONS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY FOG...WITH DENSE FOG MENTIONED IN NC MT VALLEYS. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO MATCH SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY...THEN TRENDED TOWARD PREVIOUS 12Z FORECAST. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 257 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... RIDGETOPS PROVIDING LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. CELLS MOVING VERY SLOWLY WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT SVR THREAT LOWER THAN FLOODING CHC. HAVE GONE WITH EARLY LIKELY POP NC FOOTHILLS/NC MTNS SOUTH AND WEST OF FRENCH BROAD...AND OVER SC/GA MTNS. SCT POP ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT BEST CHC FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE MTN VALLEYS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WILL YIELD TO SLIGHT LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A DIFFLUENT NORTHWEST...BUT STILL PRETTY WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. ALL IN ALL...DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH CHANGE TO OUR PERSISTENT SENSIBLE WEATHER...A CONTINUED THREAT OF SCATTERED DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ANOTHER DAY OF FTHL/PIEDMONT MAXES IN THE LOWER 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100. IT CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO MCS EVOLUTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND/OR FRIDAY BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING...WHETHER IT MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTHEAST IS STILL DEBATABLE. NOT THAT IT IS CORRECT...BUT THE 12 UTC GFS IS NOW SHOWING STRONG SIGNALS OF LINEAR DEEP CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE MTNS FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACRS THE CWFA BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME SUPPORT ALBEIT WEAKER ON THE 12 UTC NAM WITH S/WV PASSAGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL DIURNAL FOR THIS PERIOD. AS IN EARLIER RUNS...THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER/DEEPER WITH MAIN S/WV PASSAGE...WHICH DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...PLAN ON LEAVING CHC POPS AS IS UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... CWFA LOOKS TO COME UNDER S/WV RIDGING SATURDAY WITH DEEPER RH DISPLACED OFF TO OUR SOUTH. IT WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP WITH FTHL/PIEDMONT MAXES IN THE MID 90S. WITH THE ABSENCE OF THE BETTER RH AND LARGER SCALE SUPPORT...PLAN ON CONTINUING DIURNAL CHC POPS FOR JUST THE MTNS. LARGE UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD EVEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE CWFA SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A FEW MORE HOT DAYS. AGAIN...ANY DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCE WOULD LOOK TO BE ISOLATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IF NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSED. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DEWPOINT TRENDS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING REACHED. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 WITH TEMPS HEADING BACK TOWARD CLIMO AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN. AVIATION... TAFS START OFF WITH VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS XCPT KCLT WHERE TSRA STILL QUITE A DISTANCE AWAY. DO HAVE CB MENTION THERE. WILL AMD IF/WHEN CELLS APPROACH AIRFIELDS. GUIDANCE NOT CONSISTENT WITH MVFR FOG CHANCE OVERNIGHT...XCPT AT KAVL WHERE IFR FOG/CIGS LOOK LIKELY. DID INCLUDE MVFR FOG AT KHKY/KAND WHERE IT IS FAVORED ACCORDING TO CLIMO. RESTRICTIONS END QUICKLY...ABOUT 13Z...THU MORNING. VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAT sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 255 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW POSITIONED 230 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AFTER FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI 18Z AS THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO TRACK ENEWD. ITS PROGGED TO BE IN NORTHERN IDAHO BY FRIDAY EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 50N BETWEEN 120W-123W WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE SYSTEM PROGRESSION SOME IF NOT SIGNIFICANTLY. MEANWHILE A DECENT TAP OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A WEAK PUSH OF ONSHORE FLOW APPEARS TO WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL CAP FROM 14C DOWN TO 9C/10C BETWEEN FRI/06Z-18Z NORTH OF ROUTE 36. PORTIONS OF CAZ003 AND SRN CAZ076 MUCH COOLER TODAY VS 24 HOURS AGO AND EXPECT A DECENT STRATUS SHIELD TO SEEP INLAND ABOUT 25 MILES TONIGHT ACROSS MENDOCINO COUNTY AND THROUGH HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND INTO THE REDWOOD VALLEY BETWEEN LORD ELLIS AND BERRY SUMMIT BY MORNING. TRICKY HIGH TEMP FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH SUMMER NORMALS ALONG AND WEST OF A GASQUET-WILLOW CREEK-UKIAH LINE BUT NOT MUCH COOLING ALONG OUR EASTERN FRINGES. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY AND BEYOND. MODELS HAVE SOME VARIATION BEYOND 72HR CLIMO TIMEFRAME. BUT GOOD TO SEE THAT EC/GFSLR HAVE CLUED IN SOMEWHAT ON WHAT TO MAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE EMILY. THIS ALL DOES CAUSE A MAJOR TUSSLE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS AROUND 84HRS WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE TRANSITION ZONE (IE SUBTROPICAL/MID LATITUDE FLOW BETWEEN 35-45N AT LEAST BETWEEN 120-130W)...AND UPPER-FLOW PATTERN OVER NW CALIF. DOUBT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND POINTS EAST OF THE SIERRA SEE MUCH CHANGE/MODIFICATION OVER THE WEEKEND NORTH OF 40-42N...WHICH WOULD PUT A HOLD ON WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/TROUGH NEAR 40N 150W AND WHAT SPIN IS LEFT ALOFT WITH EMILY TO OUR SOUTH. THE ENTIRE PATTERN OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN STILL LOOKS IN FLUX...SO WILL STAY DRY...LIMIT THE IMPACT OF THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND HAVE ANOTHER WARMUP EDGING TEMPS BACK TO/ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK INLAND. && .MARINE...46022 CONTINUES TO CLOCK SIG WAVE HEIGHTS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN WW3 GUIDANCE. SUSPECT THIS IS A RESULT OF GFS SFC WINDS UNDERESTIMATING THE NW FLOW IN THE OUTER WATERS W OF THE 46027 BUOY WHICH THE RUC PICKS UP ON A BIT BETTER. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH HAZ SEAS ADVISORY FOR 8X8S WITHIN THE INNER 20 N OF CAPE MENDO BUT XPCT FRESH SWELL TO DAMPEN IN THE MORNING DAYTIME THU. WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING N OVER WATERS THU WILL EASE WINDS...BUT FOLLOWING PASSAGE BLDG SFC HIGH AND THERMAL LOW WILL CRANK UP N FLOW. && .AVIATION...STRATUS SLIVER BUTTING UP AGAINST THE IMMEDIATE REDWOOD COAST AT 21Z WITH MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER S OF CAPE MENDOCINO. VSBL SHOWS FRONT EDGE OF DEEPER MSTR MOVG N THRU SRN WATERS OVER TOP A CYCLONIC SWIRL OR LOW CIGS AND FOG. AS S FLOW OVERTAKES WATERS XPCT STRATUS TO MOVE NWD. NOT XPTG MASSIVE INLAND INTRUSION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH BLDG DEPTH SUSPECT COASTAL AIRFIELDS WILL GET A SPILLAGE OF IFR LIFR COND TNGT. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION: MJV MARINE/AVIATION: COLBY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 258 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY). SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTION COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING CENTROID OF LARGE 600DM HIGH SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO...WITH WEAK EAST TO NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. WATER VAPOR ALSO INDICATING MINOR SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ATTM. AT THE SFC... WEAK DENVER CYCLONE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH SATELLITE INDICATING CU FIELD ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND BACK THROUGH KAKO ATTM. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GENERALLY MOVING SOUTHWEST WITH THE MEAN STEERING FLOW. TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH AND EAST WITH MINOR WAVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH PALMER DVD...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW TSRA DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY AND WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING. SOUNDINGS INDICATING RATHER THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE BETWEEN H5-H4 WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS EXPECTED PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN. CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALSO CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED...WITH MORE WIND THAN RAIN EXPECTED AS WELL. WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND PASSING NE DISTURBANCE...WILL SEE ISOLATED STORMS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF LARGE UPPER HIGH TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...WITH UPPER STEERING FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN CO AND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATING BEST MOISTURE TO MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS WESTERN UTAH AND INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATING JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE PLAINS DRY. EXPECTED CONVECTION AND DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH IN NATURE AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WX HIGHLIGHTS...THOUGH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AS FUELS ARE REMAINING VERY DRY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN SIMILAR UNDER THE RIDGE...AND HAVE GONE CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW. -MW .LONG TERM... (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) FRI NIGHT AND SAT THE UPR RIDGE WL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING E OF STATE AND BECOMING MORE CENTERED OVER MO BY SUN. THIS WL ALLOW A LITTLE MORE MSTR TO ENTER MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN FRI NIGHT THRU SUN WL BE OVR THE MTS AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS OVR THE AREA WL STILL REMAIN HOT SAT BUT A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR SUN. ON SUN A SHRTWV TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE STATE AND THIS COULD HELP TO PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. MUCH THE SAME FOR MON WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL STILL AND ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TUE A FRONT MOVES THRU THE SE CO PLAINS AND THIS LOOKS LIKE OUR COOLEST AND MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS DROP TO AROUND NORMAL AND PCPN CHANCES WL BE A LITTLE BETTER...AND PCPN COULD CONTINUE LATER INTO THE NIGHT. FOR WED AND THU AN UPR RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD AGAIN OVR THE WRN STATES WITH AN UPR HIGH CENTERED OR AZ BY THU AFTERNOON...SO TEMPS WARM AGAIN. THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA TO CONTINUE MENTIONING SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOW PCPN CHANCES. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 300 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR (WV) IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LVL RIDGING DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION. RUC40 1000-500MB STREAMLINES INDICATE THAT THE MEAN LAYER BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS GA...AND SUCH A POSITION CONTINUES SSE FLOW OVER THE JAX CWA TONIGHT. WE REMAIN UNSEASONABLY DRY AS THE KJAX 00Z RAOB REPORTED A PWAT OF ONLY 1.6 INCHES. WV SHOWS A SWATH OF DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT NOTE THAT AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IS BREAKING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO CREEP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE JAX CWA. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU SAT...THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN TODAY ACROSS THE SE REGION AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MEAN LAYER BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL...AND POSITION OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY PROVIDING LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND ALLOW FOR ANOTHER INLAND SEABREEZE MERGER. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS OUR GA ZONES THIS AFTN AS SUBSIDENCE WILL BE WEAKENING OVER THESE ZONES AND MOISTURE INCREASING. FRI THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS SHUNTS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AS A SFC BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SSW TO THE AREA AS WELL AS MORE MOISTURE WITH PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH INCREASING POPS FRI ACROSS THE BOARD WITH 40% INLAND TO 30% NEAR THE COAST. SAT THE SFC FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR GA ZONES WHICH WILL KEEP THE JAX CWA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED IN THE AFTN BY SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WLY SO AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...MAINLY WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED THE PREVIOUS DAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AOA CLIMO VALUES WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS IN THE MID 70S. THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S. .LONG TERM...SUN THRU WED...THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALLOWS THE LOW LVL BERMUDA RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER CENTRAL FL. THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL TAPER FROM 40-50% THIS WEEKEND...TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES OF 35-40% BY MID-WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE AOA CLIMO VALUES FROM THE LOW-MID 90S TO LOW-MID 70S. && .MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR THE OCCASIONAL NOCTURNAL SURGE NEAR 15 KNOTS ACRS THE GA WTRS. OTHERWISE THE ONLY OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM WILL BE POSSIBLE INCREASE IN EASTERLY SWELLS FROM A DEVELOPING WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINITY IN THIS SYSTEM ON TRACK AND POSSIBLE INTENSITY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 74 94 75 / 40 30 40 40 SSI 90 78 90 79 / 20 10 30 40 JAX 93 75 92 76 / 20 10 40 40 SGJ 90 78 90 78 / 20 10 30 30 GNV 95 74 93 75 / 40 20 40 40 OCF 94 74 93 75 / 30 20 40 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...ENYEDI MARINE/FIRE WX...HESS fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 230 PM EST THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... MAIN CHALLENGE WILL REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTION CHANCES TONIGHT AND ASSOCIATED RISKS FOR SVR WX AND HEAVY RAIN. NAM/GFS/RUC HAVE DONE A POOR JOB OF EVEN SHOWING THE ONGOING CONVECTION NOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LWR MI. AS A RESULT...SOME CONFIDENCE LOST IN MODELS. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE SHOWN FAIRLY WELL THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LI'S AVERAGING FROM -10 TO AS HIGH AS -13 C IN WESTERN INDIANA AND MUCH OF ILLINOIS AS TEMPS CLIMB CLOSE TO OR IN THE 90S AND SFC DEWPTS AOA 70 WITH SOME LOCATION IN ILLINOIS SHOWING MID-UPR 70S DEWPTS. CAPES WELL OVER 3000 J/KG AS WELL. STG 700 MB CAP (SEEN ON 18Z ILX SOUNDING) IN PLACE HELPING TO HOLD OFF MUCH OF THE CONVECTION...BUT COMBINATION OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS OTHER BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA HAVE RESULTED IN ONE STORM THAT RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER CHICAGO AND IS NOW MOVING OVER THE LAKE. AS SHORTWAVE/MCVS MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...CAP SHOULD ERODE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. WITH INSTABILITY IN PLACE...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME RATHER STRONG IF NOT SEVERE IN SOME AREAS. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE CONFINED TO THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN. BOTH GFS AND NAM GO CRAZY WITH QPF TONIGHT WILL BULLSEYE OF NEARLY 7 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY 06Z/FRI. NAM NOT AS HIGH AND A BIT MORE REASONABLE BUT STILL SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE. GIVEN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AS WELL AS BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH THROUGH MI AND DECENT 850 JET TO SET UP ALL PROVIDING A GOOD FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT. EVEN WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LIKELY TO CAT POPS TONIGHT ALL AREAS...WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE GOING TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS MENTION. WILL MAKE LAST SECOND CALL ON ZONES DEPENDING ON TRENDS. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS AROUND 70. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY BE SINKING SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...USHERING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AIR. QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS DRIER AIR MAKES IT ON FRIDAY. WITH UNCERTANTITY ALREADY IN PLACE REGARDING EFFECTS OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE FRIDAY FORECAST INTACT AND LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT FRONTAL POSITION AND POTENTIAL LINGERING PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF IT. HIGHS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SUPPORTED ONCE AGAIN BY HOPEFULLY A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS OF +18 TO +20. TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AT BENTON HARBOR IF LIGHT NE WIND CAN DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE AND COOLER TEMPS. HAVE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA. BOTH GFS AND NAM HAVE DEWPOINTS DROPPING TO AROUND 60F BY 12Z SAT OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S OVER CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS COMFORTABLY DOWN TO THE 60-65F DEGREE RANGE FOR SATURDAY MORNING LOWS. SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...HOLDING OFF RETURN FLOW KEEPING HEAT INDICES IN CHECK WHILE HIGHS REACH 85-90F. WARM FRONT THEN MOVES BACK THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH PARENT SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA. DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA KEEPING FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US RESULTS IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO EAST COAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS PROGGED TO MOVE BEHIND THIS FRONT BRINGING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AND TEMPS ACTUALLY DROPPING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. .AVIATION... TOUGH FORECAST NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION. DYING COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL TRACK NORTH OF BOTH SITES. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT IN ILLINOIS OR POSSIBLE WESTERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND A APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMES IN TO ENHANCE THINGS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO GROUPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE AT BOTH SITES. AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP...LATER AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...STILL EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CU FORMATION SO FAR. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...FISHER/WAMSLEY LONG TERM...LOGSDON in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1228 PM EST THU JUL 21 2005 .AVIATION... TOUGH FORECAST NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION. DYING COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL TRACK NORTH OF BOTH SITES. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT IN ILLINOIS OR POSSIBLE WESTERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND A APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMES IN TO ENHANCE THINGS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO GROUPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE AT BOTH SITES. AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP...LATER AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...STILL EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CU FORMATION SO FAR. && .PREV DISCUSSIONS UPDATE... CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CENTER AROUND MCS HOLDING TOGETHER ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH BUT APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING AT THIS TIME DESPITE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH MSAS LI'S AROUND -7 C ALREADY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CNTRL AND NE IL. STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN WI/N IL INTO SOUTHER LWR MI. KLOT RADAR SHOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW WORKING EAST APPROACHING JOLIET AND CHICAGO METRO AREA. THIS BOUNDARY AND CURRENT STORMS OVER IL WILL BE MOVING INTO WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE EAST...POSSIBLY BECOMING THE MAIN FOCUS FOR OUR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN AREAS. SVR WATCH ISSUED A BIT AGO UP TO THE IN/IL STATE LINE. WOULD EXPECT INSTABILITY TO INCREASE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC DEWPTS SITTING AOA 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS...COMBINED WITH TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING 80 IN WESTERN AREAS SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. 12Z NAM/6Z GFS DEPICT MID-UPR 70S DEWPTS TO THE WEST OF US THROUGH EARLY AFTN THEN SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR AREA...YIELDING LI'S -9 TO -11 C AND CAPES WELL OVER 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...BASED ON OBS...DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN MODELS SHOWING AT THIS TIME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE DEWPTS CLIMB SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE SETTING UP...BUT THINK MODELS MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT. REGARDLESS...SVR THREAT EXISTS...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION IN ZONES AND MONITOR TRENDS TO THE WEST. HWO HAS THINGS COVERED AT THIS TIME...SO WILL PLACE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SCT WORDING AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS FINE AT THIS TIME...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO OR ABOVE 90 IN MANY AREAS AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. && SHORT TERM... MORE QN/S THEN ANSWERS THIS AM. SADLY...BULK OF CWA GETTING SPLIT BY CONVN W/VRY IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OVR NE IL ATTM AND RIGHT WHERE GFS INDICATED LAST NIGHT. OF NOTE IS DEEP OFB ANCHORED UPSTREAM W/LLJ ALIGNMENT INTO IT OVR IL WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT FOR SOME TIME THIS AM AS IT DIVES SEWD INTO WRN INDIANA. OF GREATER INTEREST IS MATURE SEVERE MCS ACRS NE NEB W/APPARENT WAKE LOW BEHIND IT. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE DVLPMNT OF THIS FTR TO SOME DEGREE BUT DETAIL RESOLUTION EXPECTANTLY POOR AND NOD TWD TIMING ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM MCV GIVEN TWD 06Z RUC/12KM NAM. ATTM DOUBT OFB WILL MOVE IF AT ALL AND LIKELY FOCUS SFC BASED DVLPMNT THIS AFTN WELL W ACRS IL. HWVR THAT SAID...OUTFLW BUBBLE IN PLACE INADV OF EJECTING NEB RIDGE RIDER VRY WELL COULD FIRE ELEVATED CONVN OVRTOP CWA LT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS MCV ENHANCED LLJ DVLPS W/STG ELEVATED THETA-E FLUX INTO ESP NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND WHICH FITS WITHIN GOING GFS/NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS TOO FAR N OVERNIGHT. 06Z 12KM NAM LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY WELL AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR LT THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LLJ SEGMENT ACRS IL LOOKS TO WKN LTR THIS AM AND SHLD RESULT IN RAPID DECAY OF ONGOING MCS AND CLOUD DEBRIS BY MID/LATE AM. THUS PROGGED INSOLATION WITHIN A BIT WARMER THERMAL RIDGE THEN YDA SHLD EQUATE TO LOW 90S FOR MOST. LONG TERM... NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE FRIDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE BIGGEST THING IS A FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING IS TO HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT. GFS80 HAS A LOW MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH DOWN INTO MICHIGAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DGEX HAS SUNDAY WET AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THEN IT MOVES THAT LOW NORTHEAST WHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL'S STORY FOR SUNDAY IS A LOW IN WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF US AND KEEPING SUNDAY DRY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WITH JUST THE DGEX SHOWING RAIN WITH A DIFFERING SCENARIO THAN OTHER MODELS, HAVE KEPT SUNDAY DRY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THAT FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN JUST EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO UP AROUND 80 FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...FISHER SHORT TERM...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...LOTHAMER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 940 AM EST THU JUL 21 2005 .UPDATE... CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CENTER AROUND MCS HOLDING TOGETHER ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH BUT APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING AT THIS TIME DESPITE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH MSAS LI'S AROUND -7 C ALREADY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CNTRL AND NE IL. STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN WI/N IL INTO SOUTHER LWR MI. KLOT RADAR SHOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW WORKING EAST APPROACHING JOLIET AND CHICAGO METRO AREA. THIS BOUNDARY AND CURRENT STORMS OVER IL WILL BE MOVING INTO WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE EAST...POSSIBLY BECOMING THE MAIN FOCUS FOR OUR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN AREAS. SVR WATCH ISSUED A BIT AGO UP TO THE IN/IL STATE LINE. WOULD EXPECT INSTABILITY TO INCREASE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC DEWPTS SITTING AOA 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS...COMBINED WITH TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING 80 IN WESTERN AREAS SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. 12Z NAM/6Z GFS DEPICT MID-UPR 70S DEWPTS TO THE WEST OF US THROUGH EARLY AFTN THEN SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR AREA...YIELDING LI'S -9 TO -11 C AND CAPES WELL OVER 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...BASED ON OBS...DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN MODELS SHOWING AT THIS TIME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE DEWPTS CLIMB SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE SETTING UP...BUT THINK MODELS MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT. REGARDLESS...SVR THREAT EXISTS...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION IN ZONES AND MONITOR TRENDS TO THE WEST. HWO HAS THINGS COVERED AT THIS TIME...SO WILL PLACE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SCT WORDING AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS FINE AT THIS TIME...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO OR ABOVE 90 IN MANY AREAS AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSIONS AVIATION/PREVIOUS UPDATE... UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS AM W/IMPRESSIVE UPSTREAM SVR MCS ACRS SRN MN AND NRN IA. AT LEAST SHRT TERM RUC INDICATIONS ALG W/06Z 12KM NAM PAINTING A REASONABLY SOLID FCST SCENARIO INTO THIS AFTN AND MORESO THIS EVENING. LTL TO WORRY ABT EARLY ON W/RAPIDLY DECAYING CONV CLUSTER OVR CNTRL INDIANA W/HIGH CLD SHIELD ERODING QUICKLY AND WHICH SHLD GIVE WAY TO SCT CU BY MID AM. HWVR BEYOND THAT...ATTN TURNS WWD W/INCOMING MCV AND ASSOCD COUPLED OFB/GRAVITY WAVE PACKET. WOULD SUSPECT CONVN TO MAINTAIN N OF SFC BNDRY AS GRAVITY WAVE CONTS PROPAGATING EWD ALG SFC BNDRY AND IN AGREEMENT W/09Z RUC. ENHANCED MID LVL MESOSCALE SW HANDLED SIMILARLY W/INCREASING DOWNSTREAM LL WIND RESPONSE XPCD AND GIVEN PRESENCE OF STG THETA-E GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OVR IL...SOME QN REMAINS ON HOW EARLY CONV DVLPMNT MAY OCCUR HERE. EARLIER LOOKING BTR AND W/12Z TAF ISSUANCE HAVE INSERTED TEMPO THUNDER FM 23Z/SBN TO 01Z/FWA TO START. THIS ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR IN ZONE TIMING ALTHOUGH IMPLIED CHC LOOKING GREATER TWD EVENING THEN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED. OTHERWISE POST OUTFLW PRESTORM DESTABILIZATION SIGNAL VERY MIXED W/09Z RUC INDICATION WELL N AND E OF 06Z NAM. THIS QUITE TROUBLING GIVEN INHERENT SVR POTENTIAL INADV OF MCV INDUCED MID LVL WIND MAX AND POTENTIAL FOR NEARBY OFB TO MIX NEWD THIS AFTN. WILL AWAIT 12Z DATA FOR BTR CONSENSUS. SHORT TERM... MORE QN/S THEN ANSWERS THIS AM. SADLY...BULK OF CWA GETTING SPLIT BY CONVN W/VRY IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OVR NE IL ATTM AND RIGHT WHERE GFS INDICATED LAST NIGHT. OF NOTE IS DEEP OFB ANCHORED UPSTREAM W/LLJ ALIGNMENT INTO IT OVR IL WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT FOR SOME TIME THIS AM AS IT DIVES SEWD INTO WRN INDIANA. OF GREATER INTEREST IS MATURE SEVERE MCS ACRS NE NEB W/APPARENT WAKE LOW BEHIND IT. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE DVLPMNT OF THIS FTR TO SOME DEGREE BUT DETAIL RESOLUTION EXPECTANTLY POOR AND NOD TWD TIMING ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM MCV GIVEN TWD 06Z RUC/12KM NAM. ATTM DOUBT OFB WILL MOVE IF AT ALL AND LIKELY FOCUS SFC BASED DVLPMNT THIS AFTN WELL W ACRS IL. HWVR THAT SAID...OUTFLW BUBBLE IN PLACE INADV OF EJECTING NEB RIDGE RIDER VRY WELL COULD FIRE ELEVATED CONVN OVRTOP CWA LT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS MCV ENHANCED LLJ DVLPS W/STG ELEVATED THETA-E FLUX INTO ESP NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND WHICH FITS WITHIN GOING GFS/NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS TOO FAR N OVERNIGHT. 06Z 12KM NAM LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY WELL AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR LT THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LLJ SEGMENT ACRS IL LOOKS TO WKN LTR THIS AM AND SHLD RESULT IN RAPID DECAY OF ONGOING MCS AND CLOUD DEBRIS BY MID/LATE AM. THUS PROGGED INSOLATION WITHIN A BIT WARMER THERMAL RIDGE THEN YDA SHLD EQUATE TO LOW 90S FOR MOST. LONG TERM... NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE FRIDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE BIGGEST THING IS A FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING IS TO HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT. GFS80 HAS A LOW MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH DOWN INTO MICHIGAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DGEX HAS SUNDAY WET AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THEN IT MOVES THAT LOW NORTHEAST WHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL'S STORY FOR SUNDAY IS A LOW IN WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF US AND KEEPING SUNDAY DRY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WITH JUST THE DGEX SHOWING RAIN WITH A DIFFERING SCENARIO THAN OTHER MODELS, HAVE KEPT SUNDAY DRY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THAT FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN JUST EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO UP AROUND 80 FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FISHER SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...LOTHAMER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 600 AM EST THU JUL 21 2005 .AVIATION/UPDATE... UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS AM W/IMPRESSIVE UPSTREAM SVR MCS ACRS SRN MN AND NRN IA. AT LEAST SHRT TERM RUC INDICATIONS ALG W/06Z 12KM NAM PAINTING A REASONABLY SOLID FCST SCENARIO INTO THIS AFTN AND MORESO THIS EVENING. LTL TO WORRY ABT EARLY ON W/RAPIDLY DECAYING CONV CLUSTER OVR CNTRL INDIANA W/HIGH CLD SHIELD ERODING QUICKLY AND WHICH SHLD GIVE WAY TO SCT CU BY MID AM. HWVR BEYOND THAT...ATTN TURNS WWD W/INCOMING MCV AND ASSOCD COUPLED OFB/GRAVITY WAVE PACKET. WOULD SUSPECT CONVN TO MAINTAIN N OF SFC BNDRY AS GRAVITY WAVE CONTS PROPAGATING EWD ALG SFC BNDRY AND IN AGREEMENT W/09Z RUC. ENHANCED MID LVL MESOSCALE SW HANDLED SIMILARLY W/INCREASING DOWNSTREAM LL WIND RESPONSE XPCD AND GIVEN PRESENCE OF STG THETA-E GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OVR IL...SOME QN REMAINS ON HOW EARLY CONV DVLPMNT MAY OCCUR HERE. EARLIER LOOKING BTR AND W/12Z TAF ISSUANCE HAVE INSERTED TEMPO THUNDER FM 23Z/SBN TO 01Z/FWA TO START. THIS ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR IN ZONE TIMING ALTHOUGH IMPLIED CHC LOOKING GREATER TWD EVENING THEN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED. OTHERWISE POST OUTFLW PRESTORM DESTABILIZATION SIGNAL VERY MIXED W/09Z RUC INDICATION WELL N AND E OF 06Z NAM. THIS QUITE TROUBLING GIVEN INHERENT SVR POTENTIAL INADV OF MCV INDUCED MID LVL WIND MAX AND POTENTIAL FOR NEARBY OFB TO MIX NEWD THIS AFTN. WILL AWAIT 12Z DATA FOR BTR CONSENSUS. && .SHORT TERM... MORE QN/S THEN ANSWERS THIS AM. SADLY...BULK OF CWA GETTING SPLIT BY CONVN W/VRY IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OVR NE IL ATTM AND RIGHT WHERE GFS INDICATED LAST NIGHT. OF NOTE IS DEEP OFB ANCHORED UPSTREAM W/LLJ ALIGNMENT INTO IT OVR IL WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT FOR SOME TIME THIS AM AS IT DIVES SEWD INTO WRN INDIANA. OF GREATER INTEREST IS MATURE SEVERE MCS ACRS NE NEB W/APPARENT WAKE LOW BEHIND IT. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE DVLPMNT OF THIS FTR TO SOME DEGREE BUT DETAIL RESOLUTION EXPECTANTLY POOR AND NOD TWD TIMING ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM MCV GIVEN TWD 06Z RUC/12KM NAM. ATTM DOUBT OFB WILL MOVE IF AT ALL AND LIKELY FOCUS SFC BASED DVLPMNT THIS AFTN WELL W ACRS IL. HWVR THAT SAID...OUTFLW BUBBLE IN PLACE INADV OF EJECTING NEB RIDGE RIDER VRY WELL COULD FIRE ELEVATED CONVN OVRTOP CWA LT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS MCV ENHANCED LLJ DVLPS W/STG ELEVATED THETA-E FLUX INTO ESP NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND WHICH FITS WITHIN GOING GFS/NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS TOO FAR N OVERNIGHT. 06Z 12KM NAM LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY WELL AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR LT THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LLJ SEGMENT ACRS IL LOOKS TO WKN LTR THIS AM AND SHLD RESULT IN RAPID DECAY OF ONGOING MCS AND CLOUD DEBRIS BY MID/LATE AM. THUS PROGGED INSOLATION WITHIN A BIT WARMER THERMAL RIDGE THEN YDA SHLD EQUATE TO LOW 90S FOR MOST. && .LONG TERM... NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE FRIDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE BIGGEST THING IS A FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING IS TO HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT. GFS80 HAS A LOW MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH DOWN INTO MICHIGAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DGEX HAS SUNDAY WET AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THEN IT MOVES THAT LOW NORTHEAST WHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL'S STORY FOR SUNDAY IS A LOW IN WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF US AND KEEPING SUNDAY DRY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WITH JUST THE DGEX SHOWING RAIN WITH A DIFFERING SCENARIO THAN OTHER MODELS, HAVE KEPT SUNDAY DRY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THAT FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN JUST EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO UP AROUND 80 FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...LOTHAMER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 253 AM EST THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM... MORE QN/S THEN ANSWERS THIS AM. SADLY...BULK OF CWA GETTING SPLIT BY CONVN W/VRY IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OVR NE IL ATTM AND RIGHT WHERE GFS INDICATED LAST NIGHT. OF NOTE IS DEEP OFB ANCHORED UPSTREAM W/LLJ ALIGNMENT INTO IT OVR IL WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT FOR SOME TIME THIS AM AS IT DIVES SEWD INTO WRN INDIANA. OF GREATER INTEREST IS MATURE SEVERE MCS ACRS NE NEB W/APPARENT WAKE LOW BEHIND IT. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE DVLPMNT OF THIS FTR TO SOME DEGREE BUT DETAIL RESOLUTION EXPECTANTLY POOR AND NOD TWD TIMING ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM MCV GIVEN TWD 06Z RUC/12KM NAM. ATTM DOUBT OFB WILL MOVE IF AT ALL AND LIKELY FOCUS SFC BASED DVLPMNT THIS AFTN WELL W ACRS IL. HWVR THAT SAID...OUTFLW BUBBLE IN PLACE INADV OF EJECTING NEB RIDGE RIDER VRY WELL COULD FIRE ELEVATED CONVN OVRTOP CWA LT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS MCV ENHANCED LLJ DVLPS W/STG ELEVATED THETA-E FLUX INTO ESP NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND WHICH FITS WITHIN GOING GFS/NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS TOO FAR N OVERNIGHT. 06Z 12KM NAM LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY WELL AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR LT THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LLJ SEGMENT ACRS IL LOOKS TO WKN LTR THIS AM AND SHLD RESULT IN RAPID DECAY OF ONGOING MCS AND CLOUD DEBRIS BY MID/LATE AM. THUS PROGGED INSOLATION WITHIN A BIT WARMER THERMAL RIDGE THEN YDA SHLD EQUATE TO LOW 90S FOR MOST. && .LONG TERM... NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE FRIDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE BIGGEST THING IS A FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING IS TO HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT. GFS80 HAS A LOW MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH DOWN INTO MICHIGAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DGEX HAS SUNDAY WET AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THEN IT MOVES THAT LOW NORTHEAST WHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL'S STORY FOR SUNDAY IS A LOW IN WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF US AND KEEPING SUNDAY DRY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WITH JUST THE DGEX SHOWING RAIN WITH A DIFFERING SCENARIO THAN OTHER MODELS, HAVE KEPT SUNDAY DRY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THAT FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN JUST EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO UP AROUND 80 FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION... DIFFICULT TAF CYCLE THIS AM W/CONVN SPLITTING CWA ATTM. MBE ELEMENT ANCHORED OVR NE IL RIGHT WHERE GFS SAID IT WOULD LAST NIGHT AND SHLD KEEP FOCUS FOR ADDNL DVLPMNT W OF TAF SITES REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PRIMARY EARLY PROBLEM WILL BE PENCHANT FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTION TWD DAYBREAK AS PRIOR SHIFT HAD ELUDED TO AND LEFT INTACT FOR THIS CYCLE ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLD SHIELD WILL LIKELY NOT ERODE SUFFICIENTLY TO PROMOTE LWR END. OTHERWISE SITUATION LT THIS AFTN AND EVENING VEXING W/CONFLICTING MODEL SIGNALS AND SVR MCS OVR NE. WILL PROB30 SBN FOR NOW W/CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...LOTHAMER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 340 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK DIP OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC STATES. A RATHER BROAD RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FRONT WHICH RUNS FROM EASTERN QUEBEC...THROUGH THE CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...INTO KANSAS. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ETA/GFS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A MOIST LAYER AROUND 650MB...OTHERWISE...FAIRLY DRY. BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT IT WILL DRY BELOW 700MB AND ABOVE 600 MB. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AC TO DEVELOP AROUND 10K FEET. IN SPITE OF THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN. SO DROP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN CONJUNCTIONS WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN DAKOTAS. ETA/GFS DEPICT AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD FRONT RACES INTO THE MINNESOTA. ETA/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS BELOW 700MB. THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN IS DIMINISHING. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT IT WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO SATURATE OUT THE LOW LEVEL FIRST. PLAN TO LEAVE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BUT LOWER THE POPS AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. THE ENSEMBLE AND THE GLOBAL DON'T SEEM TO DISAGREE IN THE EXTENDED EITHER. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER ALIGNMENT THAN THE 06Z GFS. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE MORE AGREE WITH THE ETA AS WELL. PLAN TO FAVOR THE 00Z GFS HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL. THE SHORTWAVE WILL RACE OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW...AS THE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CHASES IT THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND A WARM FRONT INTO WISCONSIN. MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THESE FRONT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND SHOULD DRY OUT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE START TO MOVES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS A 1022MB RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 400 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .DISCUSSION... SFC FRONT IS INTO E UPR MI ATTM WITH ONLY A FEW SCT MID CLOUDS ALONG IT. OTHER THAN A VERY ISOLD STRONG CELL IN NEARSHORE WATERS OFF BIG BAY LATE YDY AFTN AND ANOTHER CELL THAT POPPED UP COUPLE HOURS AGO N OF SSM...THERE WAS NO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. PCPN OVR SCNTRL UPR MI LATE YDY MORNING INTO THE AFTN WAS LEFTOVERS FM MCS THAT CAME E OUT OF CNTRL MN YDY MORNING. A QUARTER OF AN INCH AROUND MENOMINEE COUNTY...OTHERWISE NO PCPN OVR CWA. LACKING DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AND STABILIZATION FM THE MORNING MCS TO THE SOUTH SEEMED TO BE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR PCPN. MOVING ON...LOOKING FOR THAT NEXT CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCED THE CONVECTION IS NOW INTO CNTRL LAKES WITH SHARP DRYING PROHIBITING ANY PCPN ALONG SFC FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH. CLUSTER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME ECHOES ARE PROGRESSING W TO E ACROSS WI...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. NEXT SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN IS OVR CNTRL ALBERTA WHICH WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPR LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOT RIDGE REMAINS OVR W CONUS WITH H5 CENTER OVR GRAND JUNCTION CO PER 00Z ROABS. LARGE AREA OF HIGH TEMPS OVR 100 DEGREES YDY OVR SW CONUS INTO CNTRL PLAINS. HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY RISE TODAY WITH HIGH PRES OVR CNTRL CANADA AND N PLAINS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. NNW FLOW PREVAILS AT SFC-H85 THIS AFTN WHICH SHOULD KEEP N TIER OF CWA MUCH COOLER THAN YDY WITH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR. H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C OVR N LK SUPERIOR TO +14C OVR WI BORDER SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 BY THE SHORE...TO LOW 80S ALONG WISCONSIN AND NEAR LK MI AS N WINDS ARE OFFSHORE. ALBERTA SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE VCNTY OF LK WINNEPEG BY THIS EVENING THEN REACH N LK SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING SWRLY LLJ AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SPUR ON A ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BEGINNING WITH 18Z RUN OF GFS YDY...MODELS HAVE SHARPLY TRENDED AWAY FM THAT SOLN...WITH PRIMARY LLJ NOW PROGGED WELL TO THE WEST IN THE DAKOTAS...CLOSER TO THE VERY WARM DAYTIME TEMPS. SINCE LLJ LOCATION CAN BE TIED TO AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING...IT MAKES SENSE THAT WITHOUT A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE BEST LLJ WOULD BE WELL TO THE WEST. MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY NIL FOR THE 06Z FRI-18Z FRI PERIOD...WHEREAS BEFORE AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.00 WERE COMMON ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF UPR MI. FOR NOW...WILL TREND TOWARD NO PCPN...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. PRESSURES WILL RISE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND ONSHORE. H85 TEMPS AROUND +12C ON AVERAGE SUPPORT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH A FEW 80S NEAR THE WI BORDER. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF GFS/NAM WITH TEMPS IN LWR 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S YIELD CAPES BTWN 500-1000J/KG WITH NO CIN. NAM INDICATES PCPN COULD OCCUR OVR INTERIOR WITH LL CONVERGENCE IN AFTN DUE TO LK BREEZES...BUT WITH NEUTRAL TO ONLY WEAK POSITIVE DYNAMICS FOR LIFT AND BEST MOISTURE RETURN FARTHER WEST PER H85 THETA-E ADVECTION...WILL SIDE WITH DRY CANADIAN/GFS/RUC 13 SOLN ATTM. MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SAT/SAT NIGHT FCST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS OFF 00Z MODELS. NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE GOOD SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. NOSE OF H85 JET IS MAINLY OVR MN LATE FRI NIGHT SO KEPT POPS OUT FOR FRI NIGHT AS MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF UPR MI. AS H85 JET VEERS WSW SAT MORNING SOME SHRA/TS COULD PUSH INTO W UPR MI AS ELEVATED CAPES ARE BTWN 500-1000J/KG AND H85-H7 LAPSE RATES RISE ABOVE 6.5C/KM. GFS/CANADIAN NOT AS BULLISH IN DRIVING PCPN E ON SAT SO ONLY ADDED POPS FOR W HALF OF CWA ATTM. INCREASED TEMPS AS S FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT BULK OF LAKE COOLING TO ALONG LK MI. BY SAT NIGHT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EMERGING WITH RESPECT TO PCPN CHANCES ALONG WARM FRONT THAT SHIFTS ACROSS CWA AS H85 TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AFFECTS THE UPR LAKES. CONSIDERING BACK TO A FEW DAYS AGO THIS HAS BEEN PERIOD FAVORED FOR PCPN...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE. DRY SHORT TERM DROUGHT PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ZONES LAST FEW WEEKS SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY MENTION OF LIKELY POPS IN ITSELF...BUT THIS MAY BE AN EVENT WHERE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RAINFALL SEEMS LIKELY...EVEN IF IT MAY NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE. UKMET/GFS HINT AT WAVE RIDING NE ALONG BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD DEFINETELY BOOST PCPN CHANCES SAT NIGHT FOR CNTRL/ERN ZONES. ONCE FRONT AND PCPN EXITS E CWA LATER SUN...A NW FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTN AND WITH H85 TEMPS NEARING +20C...A VERY WARM AFTN MAY BE IN STORE. INCREASED TEMPS INTO THE UPR 80S FOR NOW. A FEW LWR 90S ARE FEASIBLE IF PCPN CLOUDS ARE OUT OF HERE FAIRLY QUICK ON SUN MORNING AS GFS INDICATES. NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND SUN. PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRYING TO CHANGE TO ONE WITH MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS ALONG N TIER...INCLUDING UPR LAKES. STILL SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES TO SORT OUT WITH ADVANCING LOW PRES FM PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK SO DID NOT ADD ANY POPS TO TUE FCST ATTM DESPITE LATEST PROGS FM ECMWF/UKMET WHICH SUGGEST OTHERWISE. COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 320 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 .DISCUSSION... SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER ND IN AREA OF LAYER (850-700) WARM ADVECTION WHICH IS TAKEN MAINLY BY 18Z RUC INTO WESTERN HALF OF CWA TONIGHT. NOT REAL STRONG SO WILL NOT RAISE THE CURRENT LOW POPS BUT EXPAND A LITTLE TO SOUTH. SOME WEAK QG FORCING TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL MN INTO THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY..WITH GFS THE SLOWER AND COOLER MODEL. ECMWF MORE IN LINE WITH ETA ON WARM AIR COMING IN AND THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH WITH WARM ENSEMBLE 850 TEMP ANOMS LAST FEW DAYS. WITH 100-500 THICKNESS AROUND 588 WILL FORECAST SOME UPPER 90S IN SW ZONES. BEFORE THAT..THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS THROUGH PARTS OF CENTRAL OR SOUTH CENTRAL MN..AND MAYBE W CENTRAL WI ON EDGE OF ADVANCING VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR MAX TEMPS IF CLOUDS DONT CLEAR OUT. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS WARM WITH COOL FRONT NOT MOVING VERY FAR SOUTH. HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP SUNDAY DRY...BUT UPPER JET BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR SOME DECENT DIV SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LONGER TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LATEST GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST AN UNSETTLED 50H WESTERLY AIRFLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WL HAVE TO KEEP SOME POPS GOING THRU MONDAY NIGHT AFTERWARD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...PROVIDING QUIET PERIOD WITH TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER OVER THE AREA. .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MN...NONE. .WI...NONE. && $$ JPR/JVM mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 855 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS AND ARE ALREADY SENT. HAVE UPPED POPS EVERYWHERE AS FEATURES ON SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW REAL GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS A FEATURE VERY NOTICEABLE ON WV IS ENHANCING THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. PWS GREATER THAN 2" NOTED ON SNDG AND WITH A H5 SHEAR AXIS OVER THE AREA BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT GETTING WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ESPECIALLY AROUND THE I 20 CORRIDOR AND A BETTER CHANCE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALSO HAS LED TO LOWERING TODAYS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S EVERYWHERE AS CONVECTION SHOULD START TO POP EARLY AND OVERALL CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA OUT OF THE MID 90S. /CAB/ && .PREV DISCUSSION...LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. FORECAST DIFFICULTY IN THE SHORT TERM REGARDS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...AND MIGRATION OF THIS ENERGY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MEAN MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WAS LIMITED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF A SFC-850MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR JACKSON. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER WEST TODAY AND THEY GENERATE MORE QPF AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH LIKELY POPS FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD HAVE LESS INFLUENCE AND PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD HAVE MORE IMPACT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON DESPITE A SEEMINGLY OVERWHELMING RIDGE PRESENCE. A PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES AND LACK OF CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD PROMOTE AN EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD TODAY WILL LIMIT HEATING ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING OVER OPPRESSIVE...BUT HEAT INDICES COULD STILL REACH 105 IN A FEW LOCATIONS. BY FRIDAY...A MORE DISTINCT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE CENTER OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH. MODELS SUGGEST GREATER INHIBITION WILL DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST AND THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE ALLOWING HOTTER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE "DELTA" REGION. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT AS TODAY'S CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A LOT TO SAY ABOUT GROUND MOISTURE AND FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES. /EC/ THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING TO MIND A SONG FROM THE 1980S. THE CENTER OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO INCREASE (MAYBE 22 DEGREES CELSIUS)...AND 1000-500 MB THICKNII VALUES FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY FEW PROBLEMS RISING TO THE WARMEST VALUES SEEN SO FAR THIS SUMMER. IN FACT...I SUSPECT THAT THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S...WE COULD BE FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. KEEPING ALL OF THIS IN MIND... HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NUDGED UPWARD A TOUCH AND HEAT WORDING WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SO...ARE YOU FEELING "HOT...HOT...HOT"? IF THAT WASN'T ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT...THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK SURFACE TROUGHINESS HANGING AROUND OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E VALUES IN THE UPPER 340K RANGE. THESE TWO FEATURES COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HEAT. INCREASED RIDGING AND HIGHER 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES/PARISHES. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THOUGH...IT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE "TROUGH" COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW A SCATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. WITH ALL OF THE INSTABILITY...I'M NOT SURE ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RATHER MARGINAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 3 (AS WELL AS 6) KM SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS MAY BE VERY "PULSEY" IN NATURE. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE SLIDING OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO AGAIN COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH MODERATING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND THICKNII VALUES...WE SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE) HEADING INTO MONDAY. IN WAKE OF THE RIDGE...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL TRY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS PANS OUT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT UNTIL I CAN SEE SOME SORT OF DISCERNIBLE TREND...I DON'T PLAN ON CHANGING MUCH THIS FAR OUT. /#10/ && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ CAB ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 338 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 .DISCUSSION... COUPLE OF ITEMS OF INTEREST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FIRST...WHAT'S THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI GOING TO DO THIS EVENING. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS CONVECTION WELL AT ALL...AND SO ARE OF LITTLE HELP FOR THIS FORECAST. THE RUC IS SHOWING THE CLOSEST THING TO REALITY WITH ONLY A TINY BIT OF QPF...AND THE SHOWERS ARE LOOK TO BE BLOSSOMING INTO REAL THUNDERSTORMS. A RUC SOUNDING FOR THE GENERAL AREA WHERE THE STORMS ARE FORMING IS SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL LID MIXING OUT TOTALLY BY 22Z WHERE THE STORMS COULD TAP JUICY SURFACE AIR. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW NEARLY 6000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR STORMS TO FEED ON...SO SOME PRETTY HEFTY STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. GOING TO GO AHEAD AND STICK IN SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FADE IT BACK TO CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY HEAT AND HUMIDITY. 6000 METER 500MB RIDGE IS EXPANDING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MID-WEST AND 850MB TEMPS ARE RESPONDING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE PUSHING UP INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. HEAT INDEX READINGS TODAY HAVE EASILY HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA... AND I EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY UP IN IOWA WHICH IS FORECAST TO ACTUALLY BECOME MOBILE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS COULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH RELATIVELY COOL AIR BEHIND IT TO KEEP US FROM REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...BUT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY STILL LOOK PLENTY HOT. WHILE MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA TOMORROW...I FEEL IT WOULD BE A DISSERVICE TO PULL THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR ONE DAY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP OUR WARNING GOING THRU 7 PM SUNDAY. EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE A FROPA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BREAK THE HEAT. EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SO HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THAT PERIOD GOING...AND HAVE PULLED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN OUT OF THE 90S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR AUDRAIN...BOONE... CALLAWAY...COLE...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...GASCONADE...IRON... JEFFERSON...KNOX...LEWIS...LINCOLN...MADISON...MARION... MONITEAU...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...OSAGE...PIKE...RALLS... REYNOLDS...SHELBY...ST. CHARLES...ST. FRANCOIS... ST. LOUIS...ST. LOUIS CITY...STE. GENEVIEVE...WARREN... AND WASHINGTON. IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR ADAMS IL... BOND IL...BROWN IL...CALHOUN IL...CLINTON IL...FAYETTE IL... GREENE IL...JERSEY IL...MACOUPIN IL...MADISON IL... MARION IL...MONROE IL...MONTGOMERY IL...PIKE IL... RANDOLPH IL...ST. CLAIR IL...AND WASHINGTON IL. && $$ CARNEY mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 130 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 .DISCUSSION... ISOLATED SHRA HAVE RECENTLY DVLPD OVR NWRN MO WHERE LATEST RUC ANLYS SHOWING STG 850 MB MOISTURE CNVG. MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVR NERN IL ATTM. OUTFLOW BNDRY FM THIS MCS MAY MOV SWWD INTO THE E-NERN PTN OF THE CWA LTR THIS MRNG AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN. VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVR ERN SD WL MOV SEWD THRU IA INTO NWRN IL BY 00Z FRI HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVR THE NERN PTN OF THE CWA THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVNG. SFC CDFNT WILL ALSO BE SAGGING SWD INTO NRN MO BY 00Z FRI. ETA...NAM MDL SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVR THE CWA THIS AFTN WITH HIGHEST K INDICES OF 43 TO 47 OVR THE NRN AND ERN PTN OF THE CWA ARND 00Z FRI. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RELATIVELY STG CAP OVR THE WRN PTN OF THE CWA WITH MDLS DEPICTING 700 MB TEMPS OF 12-14 DGRS C THIS AFTN. PLAN TO INCLUDE LOW POPS MAINLY THIS AFTN AND EVNG OVR THE NRN AND ERN PTN OF THE CWA WITH A DRY FCST OVR THE SWRN PTN OF THE CWA. WILL CONT EXCESSIVE HT WRNG TDA THRU SUN WITH THIS AFTNS MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PTNS OF N-NERN MO MAY BE A COUPLE OF DGRS COOLER DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LTR THIS MRNG INTO THIS AFTN. MAX TEMPS MAY BE A TAD COOLER ON FRI WITH CDFNT SAGGING SWD INTO SERN MO BY 00Z SAT PER GFS. ETA...NAM APRS TOO FAR S WITH CDFNT BY THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SFC WNDS WL BE OUT OF THE N-NE ON FRI...MID-UPR LVL PATTERN STILL LOOKS VRY WRM WITH 597 DM HGTS OVR WRN MO AT 500 MB AND LTL POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION. THIS MID-UPR LVL RDG WL CONT TO BLD EWD INTO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LTL CHC OF CONVECTION...AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM TODAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR AUDRAIN...BOONE...CALLAWAY...COLE...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN... GASCONADE...IRON...JEFFERSON...KNOX...LEWIS...LINCOLN... MADISON...MARION...MONITEAU...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...OSAGE... PIKE...RALLS...REYNOLDS...SHELBY...ST. CHARLES... ST. FRANCOIS...ST. LOUIS...ST. LOUIS CITY... STE. GENEVIEVE...WARREN...AND WASHINGTON. IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM TODAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR ADAMS IL...BOND IL...BROWN IL...CALHOUN IL...CLINTON IL... FAYETTE IL...GREENE IL...JERSEY IL...MACOUPIN IL... MADISON IL...MARION IL...MONROE IL...MONTGOMERY IL... PIKE IL...RANDOLPH IL...ST. CLAIR IL...AND WASHINGTON IL. && $$ GKS mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 937 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI... WILL UPDATE ZFP TO REMOVE POPS IN SE AND RAISE MAXES A FEW DEGREES. NO UPDATE TO WRKAFP. RUC HAD GOOD HANDLE ON SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT THIS MORNING. FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OVERNIGHT STORMS IN NE MT. A STORM FORMED JUST NE OF FALLON COUNTY THIS MORNING BUT HAS SINCE MOVED INTO ND. SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ND AROUND 16Z. SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND LACK OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM CANADIAN BORDER BUT MAIN EFFECT WILL BE SHIFT TO MORE NE WINDS OVER THE EAST. TEMPS WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. UNDER FULL SUN...EXPECT QUICK RISE AND GOOD MIXING SO WENT AHEAD AND RAISED TEMPS CLOSER TO 00Z MET GUIDANCE. DESPITE GOOD MIXING TODAY...WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG...SO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS NOT NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON. FIRE WX WATCH IN GOOD SHAPE FOR FRIDAY. WILL LOOK CLOSER AT DETAILS WITH NEW MODEL RUNS THIS AFTERNOON. ARTHUR .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED... QUICK AND DIRTY SUMMARY...INHERITED FORECAST TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MADE LITTLE CHANGES EXCEPT TO COOL TUE DOWN A BIT MORE. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO EXTEND POPS INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS SOME DYNAMICS AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY STILL BE IN THE MIX. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DETAILS...WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LEAVING NW SURFACE FLOW IN ITS WAKE ALONG WITH A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. SLGHT CHC IN SW MTNS FOR LATE DAY INTO NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAIN ENERGY STAYS NORTH SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE PULLED INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA SUNDAY AND 850H TEMPS STILL AROUND 31C OVER THE AREA. SO WARM ATMOSPHERE BUT CLOUD COVER WILL BE FACTOR. SO LOOKING FOR WARM START TO SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS AFTN INTO EVENING AS SHALLOW TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INHERITED PACKAGE COVERS THIS WELL. MONDAY ONWARD DETAILS...GFS HINTING AT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AREA WITH TROF AXIS AND MONSOON MOISTURE MAY CONT TO BE INVOLVED...SO WILL CONT POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DRYING TREND GOING INTO TUESDAY REFLECTED IN INHERITED PACKAGE LOOKS OKAY FOR NOW THOUGH MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY LINGER POPS EARLY TUESDAY AS WE TRY TO NAIL TIMING DOWN BETTER. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN EXPECTED TUE INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ALONG WEST COAST AND NW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA. TUE SHOULD BE COOLEST DAY OF WEEK WITH GRADUAL WARM UP INTO MID WEEK. ALWAYS NEED TO BE WARY OF NORTHWEST FLOW AS SHORT WAVES CAN SNEAK UP IN THERE...AND MODELS NOT TERRIBLY CONSISTENT YET. SO CONFIDENCE IN WED THRU FRI A LITTLE SHAKY AT THIS TIME. TESAR && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. HOOLEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 095 061/097 065/094 059/092 061/086 059/082 057/089 0/U 02/T 30/B 22/T 32/T 20/B 00/U LVM 097 052/092 053/092 051/088 053/082 051/081 050/085 0/U 02/T 30/B 23/T 32/T 20/U 00/U HDN 096 061/099 064/096 059/094 060/088 059/089 057/091 0/U 02/T 30/B 22/T 32/T 20/B 00/U MLS 095 062/098 066/095 061/094 063/089 059/084 058/087 0/U 02/T 20/B 12/T 32/T 10/B 00/U 4BQ 096 062/099 063/098 060/094 062/089 060/087 058/085 0/U 02/T 20/B 12/T 33/T 20/B 00/U BHK 092 055/094 061/093 059/091 061/086 058/081 057/082 2/T 02/T 20/B 12/T 32/T 20/B 00/U SHR 096 057/099 059/095 055/092 056/087 055/084 053/085 0/U 02/T 30/B 24/T 32/T 30/B 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68. WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 98. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 1015 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA HAS ALLOWED MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST THE REST OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES LOWER FROM THE FIRST OF THE WEEK DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. && .UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS MORNING. THERE APPEARED TO BE A WEAK CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE 12Z GFS AND NAM INDICATE THIS WILL MOVE UP THROUGH LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTED DRYING AROUND 500 MB ON THE YUMA SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH THIS INITIALLY LOOKED SUSPICIOUS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MID LEVEL DRYING WORKING UP THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL PLENTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY DELAY ONSET OF CONVECTION BUT IT SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING TRENDS AND LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS DUE TO CLOUD COVER. && .PREV DISCUSSION...256 AM PDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING I AM LOOKING AT A CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS IN YAVAPAI COUNTY THAT WILL SHORTLY MOVE INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. RUC AND NAM DEPICT INVERTED TROUGH AND VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM CLUSTER. MIGHT BE A BIT OVER DONE WITH THE QPF AND STRENGTH BUT STILL EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST AS IT MOVES INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE NORTH. HAVE UPPED POPS OVER MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE STILL LOOK FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WITH DIURNAL MAXIMUMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. MODELS CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MONSOON FLOW OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CAPE AND PW LOOK FAVORABLE AS WELL. REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL COME IN TO PLAY ON SATURDAY AND SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MAIN CONCERN WHEN THIS OCCURS IS THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IN WHAT WILL BE VERY MOIST AIR. && .LONG TERM...MORE MESSY WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE EMILY-DRIVEN SURGE SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE. YESTERDAY...THE CONCERN WAS WHETHER OR NOT THE WESTERLIES WOULD GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO START SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE. TODAY...THE TREND IS LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ANSWER OF NO...WITH THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO BEING THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVERHEAD AND TRAPPING ALL THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH. THUS...WE NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A BIAS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST. NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. POINT FORECASTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION...TAF ADEQUATELY COVERS EXPECTED WEATHER AT KLAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN ALL APPROACH CORRIDORS AND NEAR KLAS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. && .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NV...NONE. .AZ...NONE. .CA...NONE. && $$ ADAIR/JACQUES/MORGAN nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 256 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA HAS ALLOWED MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST THE REST OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES LOWER FROM THE FIRST OF THE WEEK DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. && .SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING I AM LOOKING A CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS IN YAVAPAI COUNTY THAT WILL SHORTLY MOVE INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. RUC AND NAM DEPICT INVERTED TROUGH AND VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM CLUSTER. MIGHT BE A BIT OVER DONE WITH THE QPF AND STRENGTH BUT STILL EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST AS IT MOVES INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE NORTH. HAVE UPPED POPS OVER MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE STILL LOOK FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA THROUGH OUT THE SHORT TERM WITH DIURNAL MAXIMUMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. MODELS CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MONSOON FLOW OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CAPE AND PW LOOK FAVORABLE AS WELL. REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL COME IN TO PLAY ON SATURDAY AND SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. CONCERN TO THINK ABOUT WHEN THIS OCCURS IN THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IN WHAT WILL BE VERY MOIST AIR. && .LONG TERM...MORE MESSY WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE EMILY-DRIVEN SURGE SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE. YESTERDAY...THE CONCERN WAS WHETHER OR NOT THE WESTERLIES WOULD GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO START SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE. TODAY...THE TREND IS LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ANSWER OF NO...WITH THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO BEING THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVERHEAD AND TRAPPING ALL THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH. THUS...WE NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A BIAS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST. NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. POINT FORECASTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION...SOME SHOWERS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN ALL APPROACH CORRIDORS AND NEAR KLAS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. && .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NV...NONE. .AZ...NONE. .CA...NONE. && $$ JACQUES/MORGAN nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1045 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .UPDATE...WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN NY. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WIDELY SCT SHWRS ACROSS PTNS OF SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN FINGER LKS AND ACTIVITY IS BECMG MORE SCT. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC OF ANOTHER SHWR INTO ERLY AFTN JUST FOR CATT/ALLEGANY COUNTIES. REST OF REGION MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS OR PTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTN. TEMPS LOWERED JUST A TAD IN A FEW ZNS WITH WINDS BECMG WESTERLY BEHIND BNDRY. .SYNOPSIS... WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEX WEEK. PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS MORNING. CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE... SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL' MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM. UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT ITSELF SO THAT IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS. THE CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEDNESDAY (JUL 27). GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE RUNS. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF (THURS-SAT) OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .MARINE... LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .CLIMO... WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE 1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .MARINE...NONE. $$ UPDATE...JJP SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...JJP/APB/RSH AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 950 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM(TODAY - FRIDAY NIGHT)... UPDATE - BATCH OF WEAKENING -SHRA OVER STEUBEN CNTY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. GRIDS HAVE SLGT CHC FOR THIS AREA THIS MRNG WHICH LOOKS GOOD. THIS AFTN XPCT THE CLD BAND ASSCD WITH THE DYING -SHRA TO MOVE ESE ACRS THE FCST AREA WHILE DIMINISHING, SO THE PARTLY SUNNY FCST ALSO LOOKS FINE. APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH CIN TO OVERCOME FOR CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT THIS AFTN ACRS E/SE ZONES. LAMP DATA SUGGEST MAXES A FEW DEG COOLER THAN CRNTLY FCST, BUT CRNT FCST MAXES ARE SUPPORTED BY 925 MB TEMPS XPCTD FOR THIS AFTN. WE MAY TRIM MAXES BY A FEW DEG FOR TDA, OTRW LTL CHG TO CRNT FCST. PREV AFD BLO. TODAY...WEAKENING H5 SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SCT/BKN MID DECK THROUGH LATE MORNING. BUF RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ABOUT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. RUC INDICATES ACTIVITY MAY REACH CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC HERE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. OVERALL A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. TONIGHT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY HIGHER. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NAM/GFS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT AS NAM HAS SPED UP FROPA WITH LATEST RUN. MOS POPS LOW BOTH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT DUE MAINLY TO LACK OF MOISTURE AS DYNAMICS FAIRLY STRONG FOR LATE JULY. WILL GO 20 POPS BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS AND WAIT FOR LATER RUNS TO REFINE POP AS I PREFER NOT TO USE THE "HIDDEN POP". RRM && .LONG TERM (SAT - WEDNESDAY)... SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BRINGING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL NY/NE PA. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE BACK IN ON MONDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THAT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN U.S. AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. JVA. && .AVIATION (21/06Z - 22/06Z)... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING (ELM) WHERE FOG MAY RESTRICT VSBY TO IFR/MVFR. THROUGH MIDDAY A SCT/BKN MID DECK WILL CROSS THE AREA THEN JUST SCT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5K FT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST. RRM && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 855 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .UPDATE...ISSUED AN EARLY UPDATE TO COVER SCT SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER...MOVING INTO FINGER LKS REGION. .SYNOPSIS... WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEX WEEK. PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS MORNING. CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE... SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL' MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM. UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT ITSELF SO THAT IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS. THE CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEDNESDAY (JUL 27). GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE RUNS. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF (THURS-SAT) OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .MARINE... LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .CLIMO... WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE 1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .MARINE...NONE. $$ UPDATE...JJP SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...JJP/APB/RSH AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD TO LONG TERM DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 500 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEX WEEK. PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS MORNING. CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE... SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL' MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM. UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT ITSELF SO THAT IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS. THE CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEDNESDAY (JUL 27). GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE RUNS. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF (THURS-SAT) OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .MARINE... LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .CLIMO... WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE 1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .MARINE...NONE. $$ SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...JJP/APB/RSH AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 408 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM(TODAY - FRIDAY NIGHT)... TODAY...WEAKENING H5 SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SCT/BKN MID DECK THROUGH LATE MORNING. BUF RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ABOUT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. RUC INDICATES ACTIVITY MAY REACH CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC HERE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. OVERALL A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. TONIGHT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY HIGHER. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NAM/GFS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT AS NAM HAS SPED UP FROPA WITH LATEST RUN. MOS POPS LOW BOTH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT DUE MAINLY TO LACK OF MOISTURE AS DYNAMICS FAIRLY STRONG FOR LATE JULY. WILL GO 20 POPS BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS AND WAIT FOR LATER RUNS TO REFINE POP AS I PREFER NOT TO USE THE "HIDDEN POP". RRM && .LONG TERM (SAT - WEDNESDAY)... SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BRINGING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL NY/NE PA. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE BACK IN ON MONDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THAT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN U.S. AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. JVA. && .AVIATION (21/06Z - 22/06Z)... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING (ELM) WHERE FOG MAY RESTRICT VSBY TO IFR/MVFR. THROUGH MIDDAY A SCT/BKN MID DECK WILL CROSS THE AREA THEN JUST SCT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5K FT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST. RRM && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 245 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEX WEEK. PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS MORNING. CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE... SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL' MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM. UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION... EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .MARINE... LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .CLIMO... WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE 1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .MARINE...NONE. $$ SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...JJP/APB AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 328 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KPKB TO KFGX TO OWENTON. MESO HIGH NORTH OF THE THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SHOW DIVERGENT FLOW OVER MUCH OF FA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING TWO CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. ONE ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND THE OTHER DESCRIBED ABOVE. KILN RADAR ALSO SHOWING RESPECTABLE CONVECTION ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. NAM/RUC AND GFS ALL INDICATING LINEAR MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN IL/NRN INDIANA. INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY GREATER THAN 4000 J/KG. AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STEERING CURRENT WILL TAKE LINEAR MCS TO THE IN/OH BORDER CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. THIS MCS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. QUESTION IS WILL IT BE SEVERE? CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT IT HAS THE BEST CHANCE IN THE WEST WITH CONVECTION STILL BEING SURFACE BASED AND CAPE VALUES 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE DIURNAL MIN CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AND LOOSE IT'S SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS. ALSO THE MID LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KTS STARTS TO DIE OUT WHICH MEANS IT'S FORWARD PROGRESSION SHOULD SLOW MAKING IT MORE OF A RAIN MAKER. HOWEVER, THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THAT IT CAN LAST ALL NIGHT. ONCE THIS MCS MOVES THROUGH THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRIER DEW POINTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST AND BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY. MAV TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD. WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THE REAL HEAT DOES NOT RETURN UNTIL SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... MODELS LIFT WARM FRONT THRU THE FA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF THE TROPICAL AIR. LOOKS LIKE REGION WILL BE CAPPED HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST. 00Z GFS TRIES TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE FA MONDAY...PRODUCING AN AREA OF QPF. 06Z GFS AND ECMWF...KEEP THE LIFT IN THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP FA DRY FOR MONDAY. FA IS IN BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO REAL UPPER SUPPORT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR AFTN CONVECTION. ALL MODELS SWING COLD FRONT THRU ON WEDNESDAY...WENT WITH BEST POPS THEN. 06Z QUICKER IN DRYING OUT THE FA THAN THE 00Z RUN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH THE QUICKER SOLUTION. HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON THU. CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. WENT A TAD WARMER ON MONDAY WITH DRY FORECAST. SITES && .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST SE OF KLUK AND KCVG THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AT ALL THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE RUC QPF...LATEST VIS SAT AND RADAR...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO KEEP A TEMPO -TSRA AT KCVG AND KLUK...BUT ANY EXPECTED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE IS LIKELY TO BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. AFTER A RESPITE THIS EVENING...THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM 08Z TO AROUND 15Z NW TO SE...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO CARRY AT LEAST A TEMPO TSRA FOR THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1259 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST SE OF KLUK AND KCVG THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AT ALL THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE RUC QPF...LATEST VIS SAT AND RADAR...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO KEEP A TEMPO -TSRA AT KCVG AND KLUK...BUT ANY EXPECTED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE IS LIKELY TO BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. AFTER A RESPITE THIS EVENING...THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM 08Z TO AROUND 15Z NW TO SE...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO CARRY AT LEAST A TEMPO TSRA FOR THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1050 AM EDT JUL 21 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR I-71 CORRIDOR WITH MESO HIGH BACK OVER INDIANA/NW OHIO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SKIES MIXING OUT EXCEPT FOR NEAR OUTFLOW WHERE ATTM CLOUDS (MID LEVEL CLOUDS) ARE ENHANCING AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO HINTS A WAVE TO THE SW OF CINCINNATI HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO BUMP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO AND TO LOWER POPS WITH A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE. CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DIED OUT. NAM AND RUC SHOWING SINKING MOTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME LIFT TO THE SW AND NE OF CWA WITH WEAK WAVES IN THE NW FLOW. BOTH MODELS SHOWING BETTER THAN 4000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST OR SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA THIS AFT/EVE. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO IS THE RUC SHOWS A CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL LEAVE IN 30 POPS WITH MESO HIGH...GENERAL SYNOPTIC SINKING MOTION AND CAP AS LIMITING FACTORS. TIPTON PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 335 AM EDT JUL 21 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. POTENT SHORT WAVES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS ILN CWA TO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY BY FRIDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR. WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OHIO...AM INCREASING TODAY'S POPS TO 50% NORTH OF I-70...AND INCREASING TO 40% SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SHORT LULL TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE COMES INTO PLAY BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT...THEN 30% ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON FRIDAY...THOUGH NOT AS LOW AS ETA GUIDANCE. LOWERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH SOME CLEARING LIKELY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 427 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005) LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... UPPER PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR SOUTH. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA INTO A VERY WARM AND STICKY PATTERN WITH PERIODIC SHOTS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT FALLING BELOW 70 AT TIMES. THE STICKIEST AND HOTTEST DAYS LOOK LIKE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS 500 HEIGHTS GO ABOVE 590 DM. CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO TIME AS IT WILL BE BOTH NOCTURNAL AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING DOWN IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TIPTON && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1050 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR I-71 CORRIDOR WITH MESO HIGH BACK OVER INDIANA/NW OHIO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SKIES MIXING OUT EXCEPT FOR NEAR OUTFLOW WHERE ATTM CLOUDS (MID LEVEL CLOUDS) ARE ENHANCING AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO HINTS A WAVE TO THE SW OF CINCINNATI HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO BUMP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO AND TO LOWER POPS WITH A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE. CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DIED OUT. NAM AND RUC SHOWING SINKING MOTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME LIFT TO THE SW AND NE OF CWA WITH WEAK WAVES IN THE NW FLOW. BOTH MODELS SHOWING BETTER THAN 4000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST OR SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA THIS AFT/EVE. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO IS THE RUC SHOWS A CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL LEAVE IN 30 POPS WITH MESO HIGH...GENERAL SYNOPTIC SINKING MOTION AND CAP AS LIMITING FACTORS. TIPTON && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 615 AM EDT JUL 21 2005) AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER NRN OH AND CNTRL IN HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO FAVORABLE LO LVL JET AND CONVERGENCE AHD OF MID LVL S/W. THIS S/W TO PIVOT E THRU OH EARLY TDA AND WEAKEN. EXPECT STORMS TO TRACK ACRS TAF SITES AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EARLY TDA. MINOR S/W RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY S/W TDA SHUD PROVIDE A TEMPORARY DRY PERIOD. AMS TO DESTABALIZE DURG THE AFTN WITH SBCAPES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4000 J/KG TDA AND ALTHO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LACKING HAVE A CONTD MENT OF TSTMS. UPPER LEVEL FLO TO TURN A LTL MORE NWRLY TONIGHT WITH NEXT SIGNIFICANT S/W TO AFFECT THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WL MENT TSTMS LATE IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES IN THE 08Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. POTENT SHORT WAVES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS ILN CWA TO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY BY FRIDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR. WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OHIO...AM INCREASING TODAY'S POPS TO 50% NORTH OF I-70...AND INCREASING TO 40% SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SHORT LULL TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE COMES INTO PLAY BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT...THEN 30% ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON FRIDAY...THOUGH NOT AS LOW AS ETA GUIDANCE. LOWERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH SOME CLEARING LIKELY. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... UPPER PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR SOUTH. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA INTO A VERY WARM AND STICKY PATTERN WITH PERIODIC SHOTS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT FALLING BELOW 70 AT TIMES. THE STICKIEST AND HOTTEST DAYS LOOK LIKE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS 500 HEIGHTS GO ABOVE 590 DM. CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO TIME AS IT WILL BE BOTH NOCTURNAL AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING DOWN IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TIPTON && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1125 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... WEAK MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PA THIS MORNING. RUC AND ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CAP...IN CONTRAST TO WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THUS...GIVEN THE MCV AS A TRIGGER AND INCREASING MOISTURE (LAYER PWS INCREASING TO 1.5"+) WITH MOISTURE SURGE OVER WESTERN PA...WILL EXPAND POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INCLUDE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME GIVEN WEAK SHEAR PROFILE...BUT GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND EASTWARD PROPOGATION AT TIME OF MAX HEATING...WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY PULSING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 238 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... NO SHORTAGE OF WORRIES IN THE NEAR TERM...AS WHAT WAS GOING TO BE A PRETTY NICE/EASY WX DAY FOR CENTRAL PA HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY THE APPROACH OF AN MCS THAT FORMED LAST EVENING OVER LWR MI AND NRN IN. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE NOW ALL THE WAY INTO NRN OH AND COMING ON-SHORE FROM LK ERIE AS WE SPEAK. THE UPPER FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE FAVOR THIS GUY DROPPING TO THE SE THRU 12Z...BUT IT MAY BRUSH THE WRN FRINGES OF THE CWA BEFORE THAT. WILL ALLOW FOR THIS BY ADDING CHC POPS TO THE EXTREME WRN AREAS THIS MORNING...AND HOLDING THEM IN THE LAURELS THRU THE DAY...BUT DIPPING THEM TO 20S IN THE NWRN MTS/PLATEAU IN THE AFTN. THE DECENT CAP OVERHEAD (+8 TO +10C AT 7H) SHOULD LIMIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...AND MAY KEEP MUCH THUNDER FROM OCCURRING. BUT WITH THINGS ALREADY GOING GOOD JUST TO OUR NW...WL MENTION THUNDER AS WELL. THE ADDITION OF SOME CLOUDS/DEBRIS FROM THE MCS WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED AS WELL. WILL KEEP MAXES BLO 90 IN MOST LOCALES...EXCEPT THE LWR SUSQ. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN SHOULD DIE AWAY FAST EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHC POP IN THE SW FOR THE EVENING...THEN MAKE IT PRECIP FREE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD START OUT DRY...TOO. BUT...A FAST (AND EVER-FASTER-PROGGED) MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME. OUR CAP WILL BE A BIT WEAKER ON FRIDAY (+6-8C)...SO WILL CARRY A CHC POP FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHCS FOR THE REST OF FRI NITE. DANGELO LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... MAKE A MINOR TWEAK OR TWO TO POPS ON SAT/NITE TO GO WITH EVER-FASTER TREND OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT...BUT OVERALL NO REAL CHANGES MADE BEYOND THAT. CURR FCST IS GOOD WITH BIG PICTURE. INTERESTING PATTERN SHIFT MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE FCST TIME FRAME...AND MAY LEAD TO SUB-NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE MONTH - WITH MREF MEAN 5H HEIGHTS HINTING THAT AN UPPER TROF WL DIG OVER THE ERN CONUS. DANGELO AVIATION... SOME MID AND HI CLDS TODAY...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD HOLD TOGETHER...BUT MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE. MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY WILL BE VFR. ONCE SUN SETS TONIGHT...AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WORK IN...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN BR. MARTIN && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEVOIR pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 430 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS PROVIDED FA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TDY ALG WITH WARM TEMPS (80S). TONITE: CDFNT DROPPING SEWRD ACRS ONTARIO TRIGGERING A FEW THNDSTRMS THIS PM AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP THRU NRN TIER OF ZONES BY FRI AM. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ANY CONVECTION OVRNGHT. POOLING OF MSTR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT INSTABILITY MARGINAL AND UPPER SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND THE SFC CDFNT. TSRA ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST OF YOW ATTM...AND IS EXPECTED TO APRCH ST LWR VLY THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTD WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA FOR ALL OF NRN ZONES OVRNGHT...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHC SOUTH TOWARDS MORNING. FRIDAY: SFC CDFNT PUSHES ACRS CNTRL/SRN ZONES BY EARLY PM. MID LVL SHRTWV LAGS BEHIND HOWEVER...MOVG ACRS FA DURING PM/EVEN HRS. MDT INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT MSTR BEHIND FROPA COMBINED WITH SHRTWV WILL RESULT IN CONTD CHC SHRA/TSRA. FRI NGT: SHRTWV MOVES EAST OF FA. SFC HIGH BLDS INTO ERN GRT LAKES. SLIGHT CHC LINGERING SHWRS SRN/ERN SECTIONS FRIDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY GRAD CLRNG AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVRNGHT. SAT THRU SUN: DRY WX EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. COMFORTABLE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING HOW FAST WE SEE RETURN OF CLDS AND PSBL SHWRS WITH WAA. HAVE GONE WITH SLOWER GFS...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. THE RESULT WOULD BE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WX SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... MODELS CONT TO HAVE DIFFICULTIES IN MED RANGE PART OF FCST WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS GREAT LKS AND NOW ARE ADVERTISING MORE OF A ZONAL FLW ACRS OUR FA. LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL WAA MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG SW SFC FLW DEVELOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED DWPTS WL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE. NEXT SFC COLD FRNT AND ULVL SUPPORT MV THRU FA ON MONDAY WITH CHC POPS...WHICH CRNT FCST HAS COVERED. HOWEVER...BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE MOVE FROM CENTRAL GREAT LKS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH SUPPORTS LIMITED POPS. ALSO...SW FLW AHEAD OF FRNT SUGGESTS LIMITED POTENTIAL ACRS CPV. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S. TUESDAY INTO WEDS FAST WEST TO EAST FLW CONTS WITH EMBEDDED 5H VORTS. FEEL GFS IS SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS ACRS OUR FA ON TUESDAY...THEREFORE WL CONT WITH DRY FCST AND KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. WEDS...ANOTHER SFC FRNT AND ASSOCIATED 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FA AND SEEMS BEST ULVL SUPPORT WL ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO CANADA AS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS SE CONUS. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LVLS AHEAD OF FRNT. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FRNTS AND S/W ENERGY WL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN ULVL FLW...THEREFORE FCSTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR TUES INTO WEDS. && .AVIATION...(18Z-18Z) VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN WITH VIS SAT PICS SHOWING SOME CU ACRS MTNS AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...WATCHING SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT FRNT AND ULVL DISTURBANCE. GIVEN 20KM RUC TRENDS AND NAM 12 DATA WL MENTION VCTS AT MSS BTWN 03-07Z THIS EVENING. ALSO...WL INCREASE CLOUDS AT BTV AND MENTION TEMPO GROUP FOR -SHRA BTWN 12-16Z ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRNT. AT MPV FEEL THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FG WL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AND WL MENTION VIS AT 1/2SM AND CIGS AT OVC001 BTWN 08Z-12Z. THE CHCS FOR TS ACTIVITY AT MPV/BTV ON FRIDAY MORNING WL BE LIMITED GIVEN ULVL FORCING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER vt