AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 315 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT... ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS HAS NUDGED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WHICH HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. ATMOSPHERE HAS MOISTENED UP AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW SO INTERIOR STORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WERE ALREADY APPROACHING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A STORM OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW IS ONLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...THE STEERING IS DEEP ENOUGH (NEARLY 10 THOUSAND FEET ON CANAVERAL PROFILER) TO PUSH SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS INTO COASTAL SECTIONS. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SOME BOUNDARIES OFFSHORE BUT MOST DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. WILL CARRY A 20 PERCENT OVERNIGHT POP ALONG THE COAST. WED-FRI... TIGHT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL RIDE THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE DLM ATLC RIDGE THROUGH THU...SUPPORTED BY A +100KT NRN STREAM H25 JET. CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD PUSH OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THU/EARLY FRI...WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH A SECOND LOW PRESSURE CELL S OF GREENLAND AND ICELAND BY LATE FRI. THE RESULT OF THE ABOVE SCENARIO WILL BE A DEEP AND WELL SUPPORTED CYCLONE/SHORT WAVE TROF THAT GRADUALLY WILL SUPRESS THE DLM RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO FL THROUGH THE PD. IN ITS PRESENT POSITION...THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE DEEP S/ERLY WINDS FOR ONE MORE DAY...A FLOW REGIME THAT FAVORS THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR ISOLD/SCT NOCTURNAL/MORNING SHRAS AND THE INTERIOR FOR SCT/NMRS AFTN SHRAS/TSTMS. AFTER THAT...MEAN STEERING FLOW WILL VEER TO THE S/SW AS THE ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE SWD...A FLOW REGIME THAT FAVORS THE E FL COAST FOR AFTN CONVECTION. AIRMASS IS QUITE SOUPY WITH 12Z PW VALUES AOA 1.7" STATEWIDE...NEAR 2.0" AT KXMR. UPSTREAM...RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES H100-H50 MEAN RH VALUES ABV 60% OVER THE ENTIRE SW ATLC. "DRIEST" AIR IS OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX WITH MEAN RH VALUES ABV 50%. GFS GUIDANCE HINTS AT THIS AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY FRI AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT THE "DRYING" THAT WILL OCCUR MOST LIKELY WILL BE OFFSET BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. PRECIP PROFILE WILL FLIP FROM SCT COASTAL/LIKELY INTERIOR ON WED TO LIKELY COASTAL/SCT INTERIOR THU AS THE H85-H50 STEERING FLOW VEERS TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE SFC FLOW. SAT-TUE... EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THE DLM ATLC RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE SRN PENINSULA/FL STRAITS AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE SFC TROFS PINCH OFF OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. WRLY H85-H50 FLOW IN THE MID LATITUDES THROUGH THE PD WILL ALLOW THESE SYSTEMS TO PUSH UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE ATLC RIDGE... KEEPING IT SUPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS. EXTENDED PRECIP PROFILE WILL REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHER DIURNAL SHRAS/TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL ZONES. && .MARINE... NO HIGHLIGHTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO SW BY FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES S...BUT PGRAD WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY SUSTAINED WINDS ABV 15KTS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WIND WAVE PDS WILL DECREASE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO OFFSHORE...BUT WILL REMAIN BLO 4FT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 86 72 87 / 20 30 20 60 MCO 72 88 72 88 / 20 60 20 50 MLB 73 85 73 86 / 20 40 10 60 VRB 73 86 72 87 / 20 40 10 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...LASCODY MARINE...BRAGAW fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 930 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 .DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING'S KTLH SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS JUICY WITH A PW OF ABOUT 1.75 INCHES. HOWEVER, LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO THE NNW INDICATING THAT TLH IS NOW ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUC ANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES, THE LATTER OF WHICH SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE THE WRN PARTS OF THE AREA AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED SOME WEAK WARMING AT MID LEVELS, SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY. LOOKING AT THE KTLH RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM YESTERDAY, WE SEE A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER OUR ERN ZONES COMPARED TO THE W. THE WRN ZONES WERE ALREADY UNDER NVA YESTERDAY, BUT THE MAIN CONTRIBUTER TO THIS PATTERN WAS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT DELAYED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT PRESENT TODAY, SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE QUITE AS MARKED A DIFFERENCE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE CURRENT POP FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING WITH LOWER CHANCES THAN YESTERDAY AND LESS OF A DIFFERENCE FROM W TO E. && .UPDATE...AS INFERRED ABOVE, THE INHERITED POPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD. ONE SMALL CHANGE WE ANTICIPATE IS RAISING THE POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE ERN 1/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA TO LOW END LIKELY (60). THIS WOULD INCLUDE OUR SC GA AND ERN BIG BEND ZONES AND WOULD ACCOUNT FOR THE DPVA THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. THIS WOULD MESH WELL WITH OUR OFFICES TO THE E AND MOS CONSENSUS ALSO SUPPORTS THIS THINKING. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK. && .MARINE...FOR TODAY, WILL TWEAK WINDS TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM OBSERVED ELY FLOW TO ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY, THE OFFSHORE LEGS MAY SEE THE E WINDS HANG IN THERE MOST OF THE DAY, BUT WE ARE TALKING ONLY ABOUT 20 DEGREES DIFFERENCE FROM THE SE WINDS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. WINDS & SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. NO HEADLINES. && .FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THIS WEEK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 200 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 SHORT RANGE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE UPPER LOW TO NE & WITH TROUGH TO EAST AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THEN TODAY MOST OF THE OMEGA LIFT WOULD BE OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN A BIT OF THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE SE U.S. WHERE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY INCREASE POPS A BIT. BY FRIDAY...THE GFS HAS THIS ENERGY EAST OF CWA WITH MORE OF A SEA BREEZE SITUATION OVER THE CWA. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS FROM GFS INDICATE THIS WELL TOO. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... GFS SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH EXPECTED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION POTENTIAL...THEN ON SUNDAY MRF SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS PATTERN OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SE U.S. WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY & SEA BREEZE INITIATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON & EVENINGS. TEMPS REMAINING AROUND NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 89 70 89 70/ 50 20 50 20 PFN 89 72 88 74/ 40 20 40 20 DHN 89 71 89 72/ 40 20 40 20 ABY 88 70 89 71/ 50 20 50 20 VLD 89 70 89 71/ 50 20 50 20 CTY 89 70 88 71/ 50 20 50 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ MCT WOOL/18 fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 939 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 .DISCUSSION...AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGGED BY THE MODELS YESTERDAY HAS MATERIALIZED AND RESULTED IN AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OFFSHORE ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS. RUC MODEL DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL COASTAL TROUGH WHICH ESSENTIALLY REPRESENTS LIGHT FLOW OVER LAND AND INCREASED SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WAS OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE AS RIDGE AXIS HAS MIGRATED TO OUR NORTH. LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DECREASE IN INTENSITY NEAR SHORE WITH MAINLY PATCHES OF RAIN AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE RATHER CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST FROM CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD WILL MEAN THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. THINK THAT THIS WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE STILL RATHER COOL AT ABOUT -9. SO LIKELY POPS OVER THE POPULATED PARTS OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES SHOULD BE OKAY BUT THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER POPULATED EASTERN SECTIONS WHICH WOULD KEEP POPS LOWER THERE. THINK THAT SCATTERED COASTAL POPS ARE IN ORDER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED POPS ALONG CONVERGENCE LINES THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY TREND POPS DOWN TO 30 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF THE COAST. && .MARINE...WIND DATA OVER THE PAST 24 HRS FROM THE LCL DATA BUOY/C-MAN NETWORK SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW S OF THE CAPE. WINDS AT BUOY012/SAUF1 HAVE BEEN AOB 10KTS FOR THE PAST 24 HRS WHILE BUOY009/LKWF1 HAVE SEEN THE CLASSIC AFTN SEA BREEZE SURGE OF 10-15KTS. THIS FITS WITH THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH. WILL TWEAK WINDS DOWN A TOUCH OVER THE NRN LEG...WINDS OVER THE SRN LEG LOOK FINE ONCE CONVECTION/OUTFLOWS WANE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT 2-3FT SEAS ARE ALMOST ENTIRELY COMPRISED OF AN ERLY SWELL. .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...LASCODY MARINE...BRAGAW fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 945 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 SLIGHT UPDATE NEEDED FOR CURRENT PACKAGE...CURRENT RUC AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP ERODING IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO FORECAST FOR THAT AREA...AS CAPES APPROACH 1500 J/KG...THOUGH NO REAL TRIGGER. TEMPS...CLOUDS...WINDS FORECAST LOOK FINE FOR FIRST TWO PERIODS. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ SCHOTT ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1046 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 UPDATE FOCUSES ON DVLPG SHRA MOVING IN FROM W AND SW. ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER MN AND WRN WI (AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE LOOP) BEING AIDED BY 800-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND UPR DIV IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130 KT JET OVER ONTARIO. 00Z RUC AND ETA MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPR DIV AND 800-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS SPREADING INTO UPR MI FOR THE OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL QPF FIELDS SUPPORT GOING FCST OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS DVLPG TO SOUTH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. ELEVATED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG AND SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C OFF KIMT AND KMNM RUC SNDGS ALSO WARRANT KEEPING IN CHC OF TSRA FOR SRN COUNTIES. TEMPS AROUND 50 NORTH AND MID 50S SOUTH STILL LOOK GOOD SO NO CHANGES MADE THERE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 800 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 .UPDATED... DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH FASTER TONIGHT. WHILE THE CONVECTION BETWEEN MKG AND GRB HAS WEAKENED AS IT MOVED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...MORE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR TVC SOUTHWEST TO NEAR MTW WI. MEANWHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVE MO CONTINUES TO MOVE NE TOWARD SW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS HAS HELPED THUNDERSTORMS FORM BETWEEN CHI AND MKE. THE RUC SHOWS THIS AREA BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE OVER CNTL LOWER MI BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE SHEAR PROFILE DOES NOT SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER... IT SURE LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE GENEROUSLY SCATTERED AROUND BY 10 PM NORTH OF GRR. GIVEN PWAT VALUES OVER 1 1/2 INCHES...ANY OF THESE COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER WITH THEM MOVING NE AROUND 30 MPH...FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A BIG ISSUE EITHER. && .GRR...NONE && $$ WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 500 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE/STRENGTH THIS EVENING AND PCPN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED NORTH OF THE FRONT. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND STRONG SE CONUS RDG LEAVING WSW FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. A H3 JET TO 120 KT EXTENDED FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO BTWN THE RDG AND MID/UPR LVL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...A FRONT/TROF EXTENDED FROM LOW PRES NEAR JAMES BAY TO CNTRL UPR MI TO NE NEB. THE TROF ALONG WITH LAKE BREEZE BNDRY FROM LK SUPERIOR HAS TRIGGERED TSRA OVER N CNTRL UPR MI WHERE CAPE VALUES HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 2K J/KG. GENERALLY NE MOVEMENT OF HEAVIER CELLS SEEMS LINKED WITH BATCH OF LIFT H3 JET UPR LVL DIV OR WEAK SHRTWV THAT SUPPORTED ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR. TSTMS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH LK BNDRY ADVANCING INTO SRN MARQUETTE COUNTY. WEAKER LOW LVL CONV INTO S CNTRL UPR MI HAS KEPT STRONGER TSRA FROM DEVELOPING. INTERSECTION OF LK MI AND LK SUPERIOR BNDRIES NEAR SENEY SUPPORTED ISOLD BUT STRONG TSRA. FARTHER S...WEAKER CONV AND AND LESS MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT HAS MINIMIZED COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF SHRA/TSRA. WEAK LOW LVL WIND SHEAR OR 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH HIGH FZLVL AND WBZERO HAS ALSO LIMITED HAIL OR WIND THREAT. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY TO NEAR 3K J/KG SRN UPR MI...SOME ISOLD PULSE-LIKE STORMS MAY HOWEVER PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SVR (0.75 INCH) SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO SRN UPR MI. MDLS SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED SHRA AND FEW TSRA MAY REDEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE INTO MAINLY THE SRN HLF OF UPR MI. MDLS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY RECENTLY IN HANDLING SUCH DETAILS AND ETA/GFS STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF QPF. MAIN MECHANISM TO SUPPORT -SHRA WILL BE 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE FROM JET STREAKS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...SINCE THE ETA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH STRONG MID LVL MOISTENING...IT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE THAT AN AREA OF PCPN WOULD DEVELOP. MENTION OF ONLY TSTM CHANCE ALSO RETAINED AS EVEN THE GFS ONLY DEPICTS WEAK (300-500 J/KG) OF MUCAPE. INCREASING NRLY FLOW OFF OF LK SUPERIOR WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO NORTH UPR MI WITH MAX READINGS NEAR THE SHORE BLO ALREADY COOL GUIDANCE IN THE MID 50S. SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING S SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S. ANY LINGERING WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER GRT LAKES WITH CONFLUENT MID/UPR LVL FLOW DEVELOPING BTWN BTWN RDG INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY AND TROF OVER ERN CANADA. ACYC ENE FLOW WILL KEEP COOL DRY AIR FLOWING INTO UPR MI...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. FRI...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WERE DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON WEST AND FRI NIGHT AS GFS/UKMET...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE ARE SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES IN A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. SAT THROUGH TUE...ECMWF/UKMET/GFS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF TROF/FRONT EXITING UPR MI SAT...WITH MAINLY MORNING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER THE E HLF OF UPR MI. MAIN QUESTION FROM SUN INTO MON IS STRENGTH/SPEED OF THE MID LVL TROF MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GRT LAKES. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS JUSTIFIED BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT...PER UKMET WITH A SLOWER TROF PROGRESSION. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1105 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ANOTHER LOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE LOW OVER KANSAS IS CHANNELING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE UPPER 60S THIS MORNING. 305K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING ASCENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ARE TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS SHOWING CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL U.P. THIS MORNING. GFS AND ETA WILL BE PULLING THE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE IS EXTENDS FROM Y62 TO KIMT THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO ALONG THE NORTH LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. AND ALONG THE SHORE ADJACENT TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ETA SHOWING MUCAPE AROUND 4000K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. 125KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX IS OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REACH INTO THE 75+ RANGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PROGGED OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. THIS WILL NEED CAREFUL WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 910 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004 .DISCUSSION... EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION WHILE FURTHER UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN CA. MEAN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS FLOW...RESULTING FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN TX INTO NORTHWEST MO. WEAK VORTICITY FEATURES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHERE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS RESIDES. 18Z MODEL RUNS WERE IN STRONG AGREEMENT DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS EASTERN OK/KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MO AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AND NEW 00Z RUC MODEL APPEARS TO BE IN BASIC AGREEMENT...SPREADING 850MB MOISTURE AXIS INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO LATE TONIGHT. TOP/SGF EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN DEEP MOIST AIRMASS...AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF CWA...POSSIBLY REACHING KC METRO AREA TOWARDS MORNING. HAVE RAISED POPS FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD FOR LATE TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES PROGGED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER. SEAMAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... 230 PM... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DEPICTING REMNANTS OF MCV OVER EASTERN KANSAS...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND INTO NEBRASKA. HASN'T SPAWNED MUCH PRECIPITATION...ONLY A FEW TRACE AMOUNTS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED AND SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. TWO FEATURES WORTH NOTING...AN 850MB TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA...AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS. 850MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STAY TO THE NORTH...BUT VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM TEXAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCES INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH INCREASING POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING ENTIRE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE RAIN...THE ENTIRE DAY WON'T BE A WASH. AS VORT MAX EXITS...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS GOOD...TEMPS LOOK IN GOOD ORDER...NO CHANGES MADE. WARM AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH ETA...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOWING A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH IN THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH FRIDAY THE MOST LIKELY DAY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREE MARK. LATEST ETA RUN DISSOLVES CAP FAIRLY QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING STORMS TO ERUPT ON CWA DOORSTEP...WHILE GFS KEEPS LID ON. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN GOING FORECAST OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY OF STORMS ON FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GIVE AREA A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS DEVELOPING MCS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THAT IS PROJECTED TO ROLL ACROSS FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW MOVING INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT TIME...WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES THEN WILL DIG A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END STRONG CONVECTION THREAT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL PROVIDE AREA WITH WELCOMED REPRIEVE FROM WARM AND HUMID WEATHER. LEINS/SF && .PREV DISCUSSION... 436 AM TUES... CHANGED LITTLE OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TIMING POPS THROUGH THE WEEK. PRACTICALLY TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MCV OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS STILL TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH-NORTHEAST. SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FILLED IN SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE A LITTLE MORE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY. SO HAVE LEFT POPS AT 30 AND PUSHED THEM FARTHER NORTH...AS GFS/ETA MODELS PROG THE VORT MAX TO MOVE A LITTLE MORE NORTH THAN NORTHEAST BEFORE SHEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS LOOK TO BE BACKING THIS UP. WILL NEED TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF PRECIP TODAY WITH NO CAP...CAPE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG AND MCV IN THE VICINITY. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE UNCAPPED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SO ANY DISTURBANCE COULD SET OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. 20-30 POPS SEEM WARRANTED. BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSOURI COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN MISSOURI. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMP FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY. NRR && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 913 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 .SHORT TERM...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH GOOD DEAL OF DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER REGION. RUC SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT OVER SRN TIER AND RDR DOES SHOW SOME SHRA OVER THE WATER TO THE S THAT ARE DRIFTING N. ONLY CHANGE TO ZONES WL BE TO ADD ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FOR SRN CST AND COASTAL WATERS. SMALL TEMP/DWPT SPREAD COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG AS CRNT FCST INDICATES. && .AVIATION...EXPECT SOME AREAS OF IFR CIG/VSBY WITH DENSE FOG FORMING AFT 07Z ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN OCCURRED THIS AFTN/EVENING. && .MARINE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST S OF HATTERAS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT WINDS ARE VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT, SO ONLY CHANGES WILL BE TO ADDRESS SHRA/TSTMS. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL TAKE OUT MENTION OF EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR THE SOUNDS AND TONE BACK COASTAL WATERS TO ISOLATED FOR COASTAL WATERS S OF HATTERAS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. && $$ RF/WS nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 1050 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004 ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT FORMED IN NE SD MOVED INTO WCNTRL/CNTRL MN THIS MORNING. CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE ROOTED NEAR 700 MB...WHERE RUC SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THIS LEVEL OVER FAR SRN ND INTO CNTRL MN. 700 MB MOISTURE POOL REMAINS OVER SD INTO CNTRL MN THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING BUT DOES DECREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT TO SEE SOME ELEVATED PCPN TO CONTINUE OVER FAR SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN THROUGH THE AFTN THOUGH LIKELY MUCH LESS COVERAGE. OTHERWISE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. THICKER CLDS IN SRN ZONES SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S SO LOWERED HIGHS ACCORDINGLY. NRN ZONES LOOK GOOD. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ RIDDLE nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 915 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 .PUBLIC...STILL SOME HEAVY CONVECTION ONGOING JUST N AND W OF THE CWA THIS EVE. SFC AND LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER OVER S CENTRAL GA THIS EVE...WHILE MID AND UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FOUND IN NC...WHILE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER AND PRESENT CONVECTION ARE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE SE...INCLUDING THE CWA. IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE ATLC ALREADY THIS EVE...WHICH POINTS TO SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINS AS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO SC OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED. EVE SOUNDINGS AT JAX AND CHS SHOW A GOOD SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH PWATS 1.6 TO ALMOST 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL VEER TO MORE SLY OVERNIGHT...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SC AND NEARBY BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND PERHAPS COLLETON COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY. WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY 30% POPS FOR THESE AREAS...AND LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE TO 20% OR LESS. WILL NOT REMOVE ENTIRELY AS THERE ARE STILL MANY BOUNDARIES THAT COULD KICK OFF ACTIVITY AGAIN. BECAUSE MANY AREAS RECEIVED SOME RAIN TODAY WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE WX GRIDS OVERNIGHT. NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY COVER...TEMPS AND WINDS ARE REQUIRED. && .MARINE...WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROF WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PER RUC/META. THIS WILL KEEP A SELY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THAT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO S AND SW THRU THE DAY WED AS THE TROF DISSIPATES. WILL MAINTAIN SE WIND DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS A BIT IN THE GA WATERS AS BUOYS HAVE SHOWED SPEEDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE...AND MODELS DEPICT A BETTER PRES GRAD OVER THE GA WATERS. WILL ALSO BUMP UP SEAS A BIT IN THE GA WATERS WITH ALL BUOYS SHOWING ABOUT 3FT WAVES AND RECENT SHIP REPORTS OF 2-3FT WITHIN 20NM. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ PM/JPC sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 830 PM MDT TUE JUN 8 2004 .DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER SE CWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. LATEST RUC SHOWING THAT STORMS WILL STICK AROUND THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL BE KEEPING CLOSE EYE ON SITUATION AS SOME STORMS HAVE BEEN SVR. SURFACE LOW STILL SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MN WITH FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NW IOWA AND ACROSS CENTRAL NE. FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS MOMENT. && UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .SD...NONE. .WY...NONE. $$ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 826 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004 .DISCUSSION... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA HAVE SHIFTED EAST...BUT NEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AND EXPECT IT TO FILL IN/TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90. VERY STRONG WARM FRONT...AND VERY GOOD/JUICY FORCING IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER...WHICH IS SHOWN WELL ON THE NELIGH PROFILER. GFS AND RUC CURRENTLY HANDLING THINGS BEST AS THE 18Z ETA WAS AGAIN POLLUTED BY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THAT AREN'T THERE...AND IS OFF BY ABOUT 30 TO 50 DEGREES ON THE WIND DIRECTION IN THIS IMPORTANT INFLOW LAYER. THUS BELIEVE THAT THE FARTHER NORTH QPF OF THE GFS AND RUC CLOSER TO EXPECTED OUTCOME. HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO CATEGORICAL ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND CHANGED QPF AMOUNTS TO CLOSER TO AN INCH IN THIS SAME AREA. && .FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ 08 sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 1035 AM MDT TUE JUN 8 2004 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND INTO SOUTHEAST SD. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BRINGING COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA TO THE LOWER 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. FOR THIS AFT...BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NEB AND SE SD. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAK SHRTWV ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD THIS AFT. RUC PROGS ELEVATED CAPE OF OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFT. WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM IEN TO PHP AND POINTS TO THE EAST. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER TODD...MELLETTE...AND TRIPP CO LATE THIS AFT AND EARLY THIS EVE. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFT...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HAVE TWEEKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A BIT AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. && UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .SD...NONE. .WY...NONE. $$ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 220 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...WARM/SULTRY CONDS FOR JUNE...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH A VERY SOUPY AIR MASS OVER ECFL...ALLOWING FOR PROLIFERATION OF NOCTURNAL COASTAL MARINE SHRA...WITH A FEW POPPING OVER LAND ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS FROM TODAY IS NOW ANALYZED BY THE RUC AS A DEFORMATION ZONE/COL ACROSS THE ERN GOMEX/WRN FL. OF NOTE IS THE 205AM TWDAT...WHICH ANALYZED A T-WAVE EXTENDING NWD FROM WRN CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS. TODAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH HAD MIGRATED NORTH OF FL LATE TUE WILL BEGIN TO GET SUPPRESSED BACK SWD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AS NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DRIVES A COLD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. AFTER BUMPING UP POPS A SMIDGE TUE MORNING...WAS SOMEWHAT SURPRISED THAT PRECIP COVERAGE WASN'T QUITE AS GENEROUS AS I FIGURED...OWING TO THE EARLY SHRA/TSRA KICKING AN OUTFLOW INLAND...WHICH ACTED MUCH LIKE THE ECSB...STABILIZING THE LOCAL AIR MASS OVER THE COASTAL COS. ENVISION A SIMILAR SCENARIO AGAIN TODAY...SO DON'T PLAN ON STRAYING FROM THE CURRENT SPREAD OF 40/60. WEAK H85-H50 WINDS WILL BE VEERING A LITTLE TO S-SSW ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...BUT ALL IN ALL...BDRY AND CELL PROPAGATION WILL BE DETERMINANTS OF STORM FORMATION/MOVEMENT. THU...AXIS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY AT THE SURFACE AND TO THE SOUTHWEST AT STEERING LEVELS. WEAKNESS IN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE MARKED BY A WEAKENING VORT MAX WILL TRACK TO A POSITION NEAR JAX. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH ADDED DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING ...STRONG WINDS AND AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT/TORNADO...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COLLISION WITH THE ECSB. FRI-SUN...PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SUGGESTED THAT DRIER AIR OVER THE GOMEX REGION WOULD ADVECT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PENINSULA. AS EXPECTED...LATEST RUNS HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF ON THIS DRYING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL HELP TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO GENERATE TYPICAL CONVECTION ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. MON-TUE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD WRT THE TRACK OF THE ANTICYCLONE. GFS/NOGAPS TAKE IT EAST IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WHILE THE ECMWF SLIDES IT SOUTH...RE-ESTABLISHING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT ONSHORE FLOW. EITHER WAY...PWATS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TWO INCHES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. && .MARINE...FLOW AROUND 10 KT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHWEST BY THU NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS OF 2-3 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS/ROUGH SEAS AND AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT IN STORMS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 72 86 72 / 40 30 60 30 MCO 88 72 88 72 / 60 40 60 30 MLB 86 73 86 72 / 40 10 60 40 VRB 87 72 87 72 / 40 10 70 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI LONG TERM...HIRSCH fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 500 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... WEATHER DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE SHIFT HAS ME RUNNING QUITE LATE. STILL A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH FRONTAL PLACEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE SMALLER DETAILS SO WILL CONTINUE TO RELY MORE ON BIGGER PICTURE. IN THE SHORT TERM...FRONT MADE IT INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST...BUT LACK OF SFC PRESSURE RISES NORTH OF BOUNDARY AND SOME MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST HAS ALLOWED THE FRONT TO MOVE BACK NORTH A BIT. RUC DID A LITTLE BETTER WITH THIS THAN OTHER MODELS. BEST ELEVATED FORCING CONTINUES TO BE JUST NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER S MN WHERE BEST DEEP LAYERED CONVERGENCE PERSISTS IN THETA-E MAX. TROUBLE TODAY WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT WILL MAKE IT AND WHERE WILL CONVECTION INITIATE ALONG IT. IN ADDITION...SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING UP INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO THE SE CWA...THE NORTHWEST CUTOFF OF WHICH WILL BE TRICKY TO DEFINE. AS FAR AS FRONTAL CONVECTION IS CONCERNED...LOOKS LIKE WEAK WINDS FIELDS AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE STORMS...MORE OF AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TYPE ENVIRONMENT. OR IF LOW LEVEL CAPES WHERE SUFFICIENT...POSSIBLY SOME LAND SPOUT POSSIBILITIES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GREATEST THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKE THAT WHICH OCCURRED LAST EVENING. FORTUNATELY CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL NOT HAVE A GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL ONLY BRUSH SE IA. IN ADDITION... MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN GENERAL HAVE WENT WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PCPN DECREASING OVERNIGHT DUE TO A LACK OF ADVECTIVE FORCES. ETA AND AVN DISAGREE ON WHERE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP AND HOW FAST IT WILL LIFT NORTH THURS AND FRI. AVN WAS THE FURTHEST SOUTH AND THE SLOWEST TO LIFT IT NORTH BUT 06Z RUN OF ETA CAME A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH THE AVN. DOES LOOK LIKE AN ELEVATED AREA OF CONVECTION COULD BREAK OUT EARLY THURSDAY ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. ONCE AGAIN THE INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT BUT ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE DO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. THE FAR NE ZONES MAY REMAIN RATHER COOL THURS AFTERNOON IF PCPN DOES DEVELOP AND PERSIST THUS KEEPING THE SFC BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DAY THIS WEEK. PRETTY CLASSIC SETUP WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH LIFTING TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT END UP... POTENTIAL FOR A TRIPLE POINT TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. SOME QUESTION ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AND DIMINISH TORNADO POTENTIAL...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS HIGHEST RISK AREA WOULD BE OVER THE NE ZONES. LOOKS LIKE A WEDGE OF VERY WARM H850 AIR WILL LIFT INTO THE S CWA ACCOMPANIED BY 40KTS OF FLOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY ZOOM INTO THE 90S OVER THE S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JAW ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA 345 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 .DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CAUSE A MUCH NEEDED DRY DAY OVER MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 10 PERCENT OR LESS FOR POPS TODAY... BUT WILL CARRY 20 PERCENT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BASED ON THE RUC WHICH SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER/PW/ BETTER. MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY...SO WILL BRING POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GOES DOWN TO 20 PERCENT FOR POPS ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE...30 PERCENT...SINCE PW REMAINS GENERALLY IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE WHICH IS ABOUT 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF WAIT UNTIL MONDAY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A TROPICAL SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH ANY DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THE EXTENDED GFS BRINGS A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY THEN DRIVES IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT SINCE THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO AGGRESSIVE THIS FAR OUT. WILL INDICATE A CONTINUED DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && PRELIMINARY POINT NUMBERS... MCB 90 71 90 71 / 20 10 30 20 BTR 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 30 10 MSY 90 75 90 75 / 20 10 20 10 GPT 88 74 88 74 / 20 10 20 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. MS...NONE. LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 22 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 415 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH UPPER LOWS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE WEST COAST. OBSERVED +110KT 300MB JET EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO NORTHERN LOWER...EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO COLORADO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW CONVECTION MAINLY ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO WISCONSIN...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT FROM WESTERN LOWER TO NORTHERN HURON. MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE WITH PRECIP/SEVERE CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. ETA/GFS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT FEATURE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT IMPACT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE STATE BY 12Z THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. ETA IS A BIT STRONGER/FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF COLD FRONT. BIG DIFFERENCES WITH THE WAY THE TWO MODELS HANDLE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT THOUGH...WHICH LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT/SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD. FOR TODAY...SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWA. BOUNDARY IS NOT ALL THAT WELL DEFINED...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY CURRENTLY AVAILABLE TO GET STORMS GOING AHEAD OF IT. 03Z RUC ANALYSIS/FORECAST SHOW THE CAP IN PLACE EARLIER WEAKENING ACROSS WESTERN LOWER...BUT STILL TRYING TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. 600MB TEMPS ONLY SLOWLY DROP FROM 2C ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH COULD EXPLAIN WHY STORMS ARE HAVING SUCH A HARD TIME MAKING IT EASTWARD. HOWEVER AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPROACHES THIS MORNING AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL...WE SHOULD SEE STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA. WILL START WITH NUMEROUS TSRA IN THE NORTH WHERE STORMS ARE TRYING TO FIRE NEAR THE FRONT...AND START WITH SCATTERED IN THE SOUTH. A FEW CELLS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...HENCE THE CHANCE POPS INITIALLY. WILL THEN KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER INSTABILITY/DROPPING HEIGHTS AND THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING. SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR TODAY. LAPSE ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES OVER 1000J/KG CAPE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. IR SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEAR BREAKS UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS MAINLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH COULD HELP TO PROPEL TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AGAIN. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S...WHICH WILL LEAD TO OVER 2000J/KG CAPE/LIS DOWN TO -5C. WIND FIELD IS STILL PRETTY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 30M/S BY AFTERNOON. 850MB JET ALSO PICKS UP...WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 30KTS. COULD SEE SOME MULTICELL STORMS...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM PULSE SEVERE. WIND/HAIL BOTH LOOK POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH FREEZING LEVELS UP TO 14-15KFT. STORM MOTION IS LESS THAN 20KTS...AND ORIENTATION TO INFLOW SUPPORTS BACKBUILDING/TRAINING ECHOES...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES /ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT DTX/...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED UPSTREAM AT GRB/MPX LAST NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME APPARENT. ETA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT...AND KEEPS IT GOING ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEVELOPS AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING...WHICH CUTS OFF THE MOISTURE FEED INTO THE STATE AND CONSEQUENTLY SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN WHAT IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING TONIGHT...EVENING NORTH/ALL NIGHT SOUTH. SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER 850MB FRONT LINGERS BACKS NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY...AND CUT BACK FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT IS VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG COMPLEX...WHICH SHOULD BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ETA IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH ITS LOW-LEVEL JET...HOWEVER INSTEAD DEVELOPING STORMS FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. WESTERN LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BECOMING RATHER BROAD AS SOME ENERGY REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WEST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHORTWAVES AND SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO DISPLACE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK TO THE NORTH. BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNDER FALLING HEIGHTS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD. ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE FRONT MOVING BACK INTO THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE STILL TRIES TO HOLD ON ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA...FOLLOWED BY CHANCE EVERYWHERE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BRAVENDER EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 445 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... PARSING THROUGH A LOOP OF RUC 850 MB THETA-E WARM ADVECTION IMAGES DEPICTS NICELY THE FORCING THAT GENERATED THE MCS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE LAST EVENING. 06Z RUC SHOWS THE 850 MB THETA E ADVECTION WEAKENING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AND ACTUALLY REPLACED BY COLD THETA E ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PART OF CWA LATER THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. HAVE MODELED PRECIPITATION TIMING TODAY VERY CLOSELY TO 00Z ETA-BUFKIT HOURLY PRECIPITATION OUTPUT. SOUTH CENTRAL MN LIKELY TO SEE A CONTINUATION OF RAINFALL NEAR IOWA BORDER MUCH OF TODAY AS 850 MB THETA E WARM ADVECTION...ALBEIT WEAK...RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA. KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CWA TODAY IN DEFERNCE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO JET MAX. IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD LIMIT INSOLATION AND THEREFORE VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. SLASHED PREVIOUS MAXES FOR TODAY...AND EVEN WENT A LITTLE BELOW VARIOUS AND SUNDRY MOS VALUES WHICH DID CATCH THE "MUCH COOLER" TREND. MIXED SIGNALS FOR COMING NIGHT WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHWESTERN ONT JET MAX CONTINUING TO FORCE ASCENT WELL NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS EXCEPT NO WX FAR NORTHERN CWA. INTERESTING PATTERN SHAPING UP THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES OUR CWA. FORCING FROM SAID WAVE SHOULD START TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION AS THURSDAY WEARS ON...WITH INCREASING LIKEHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING US TO TRANSITION FROM OUR EXISTING HEAVY RAIN PATTERN IN A SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN. NOTE 00Z ETA 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AT REDWOOD FALLS INCREASES FROM 23 KTS AT 06Z WED TO 40 KTS BY 18Z FRI. LONGER TERM...INTRODUCED POPS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN SERN CWA AS SECONDARY TROF LIFTS OUT OF MTNS. SEEING THIS REFLECTED IN ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS (CONTAMINATED VIA FEEDBACK)...AND ALSO GFS/NCEP ENSEMBLES. REST OF EXTENDED LOOKED ON TRACK. MEAN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES SUGGEST A COOLER THAN NORMAL WEEK NEXT WEEK. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ NAISTAT/BINAU NOTE...THE AWIPS IDENTIFIER FOR THE CODED CITIES FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN WILL CHANGE FROM CCFMSP TO CCFMPX EFFECTIVE AT 1200 UTC ON JUN 15, 2004, WEATHER PERMITTING. THE WMO HEADER FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL REMAIN FPUS43 KMPX mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 409 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHWARD...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION WITH CAPE LESS THAN 1500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT OR ABOVE 1.5"...SO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH. NO BOUNDARY IN THE AREA TO FOCUS ON AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE ALL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. LOWEST VALUES...RIGHT AT 2 INCHES...ARE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE A LITTLE LOWER. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY. LOWERED TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO MORE FROM THE EVENING UPDATE. SHOULD MAYBE HAVE GONE A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSOURI COUNTIES WHERE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST OR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S THERE. ETA AND GFS BOTH PROG ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH DIFFERENCES IN POSITION. ETA LINES UP QPF UNDER SHEARED OUT VORT LOBE OVER THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER AND IS A LITTLE MORE GUNG-HO WITH POPS...HOWEVER QPF IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY LOW. GFS BRINGS QPF ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD. ALSO BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AIRMASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED AND QUITE UNSTABLE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO BIG CHANGES MADE. NRR && .PREV DISCUSSION... 910 PM TUE... EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION WHILE FURTHER UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN CA. MEAN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS FLOW...RESULTING FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN TX INTO NORTHWEST MO. WEAK VORTICITY FEATURES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHERE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS RESIDES. 18Z MODEL RUNS WERE IN STRONG AGREEMENT DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS EASTERN OK/KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MO AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AND NEW 00Z RUC MODEL APPEARS TO BE IN BASIC AGREEMENT...SPREADING 850MB MOISTURE AXIS INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO LATE TONIGHT. TOP/SGF EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN DEEP MOIST AIRMASS...AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF CWA...POSSIBLY REACHING KC METRO AREA TOWARDS MORNING. HAVE RAISED POPS FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD FOR LATE TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES PROGGED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER. SEAMAN 230 PM... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DEPICTING REMNANTS OF MCV OVER EASTERN KANSAS...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND INTO NEBRASKA. HASN'T SPAWNED MUCH PRECIPITATION...ONLY A FEW TRACE AMOUNTS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED AND SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. TWO FEATURES WORTH NOTING...AN 850MB TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA...AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS. 850MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STAY TO THE NORTH...BUT VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM TEXAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCES INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH INCREASING POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING ENTIRE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE RAIN...THE ENTIRE DAY WON'T BE A WASH. AS VORT MAX EXITS...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS GOOD...TEMPS LOOK IN GOOD ORDER...NO CHANGES MADE. WARM AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH ETA...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOWING A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH IN THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH FRIDAY THE MOST LIKELY DAY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREE MARK. LATEST ETA RUN DISSOLVES CAP FAIRLY QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING STORMS TO ERUPT ON CWA DOORSTEP...WHILE GFS KEEPS LID ON. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN GOING FORECAST OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY OF STORMS ON FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GIVE AREA A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS DEVELOPING MCS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THAT IS PROJECTED TO ROLL ACROSS FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW MOVING INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT TIME...WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES THEN WILL DIG A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END STRONG CONVECTION THREAT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL PROVIDE AREA WITH WELCOMED REPRIEVE FROM WARM AND HUMID WEATHER. LEINS/SF && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 435 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL HANGING AROUND SRN PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ACTIVITY MAINLY N OF BNDRY. DEEP WRN TROUGH STILL DIGGING THRU CA WITH IMPRESSIVE JET STREAK COMING INTO THE MIX INTO SRN CA. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVR PLAINS IS HAVING AN EFFECT ON FRONTAL PROPOGATION IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...AND A GOODLY PART OF IT IS IN CONVECTIVE PUSH ATTM. SHORT TERM PRETTY MUCH IS CHARACTERIZED BY HANDLING DEMISE OF MCS OVR ERN SD. CRNT ACTIVITY PRETTY MUCH FEEDING ON LOW LVL MSTR TRANSPORT INTO IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED BNDRY...WITH SFC BNDRY MUCH LESS ACTIVE FM S OF KSPW TO KSUX TO NR KOFK...LKLY DUE TO WARMER MID LVL TMPS. NOT EXACTLY A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AGAIN. LLJ NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING...BUT A NICE EFFICIENT FLOW OF MSTR INTO ELEVATED BNDRY. HOWEVER...THIS WKNS APPRECIABLY 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME. CURRENT MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY ON SW FLANK OF MCS WHICH IS EXPECTED WITH SUCH PATTERN. MRR PROFILER FOR LONGEST TIME WAS BETTER WAA PROFILE AND NOW IS SHIFTING TOWARD NLG...SHOWING VEERING UNDERWAY AND WL AID TO RAPID END OF COMPLEX DURING MORNING. AFTER THIS...DO NOT SEE A LOT TO FOCUS CONVECTION...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH FRONTAL BNDRY LTR IN DAY ONCE AGAIN AS MID LVLS REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE YDA AFTN...AND ALSO WHAT THE TRAILING VORT CENTER ACRS SWRN NE WHICH LIFTS NE INTO NERN NEBRASKA LTR IN AFTN...ENOUGH TO POTENTIALLY ENHANCE PCPN IN LINGERING INSTABILITY AXIS. RISING HTS SEEM TO REFOCUS BEST CONVERGENCE/DYNAMICS BACK TO W OF CWA INTO TNGT. WK FLOW WL MEAN SLOW MOVERS...TIED TO BOUNDARIES. RUC IS BIG MONKEYWRENCH...WITH FRONT FORECAST TO LIFT NWRD THRU MIDDAY TO NR KFSD...WHICH WOULD INVALIDATE TMP FCST IN BIG WAY...AND WOULD NECESSITATE DO OVER ON PCPN DISTRIBUTION. WL GO WITH CONTINUITY THOUGH...AND LET FRONT WANDER SLOWLY SWRD...WITH HIGHS LKLY BY EARLY AFTN UNDER TEMPORARILY THINNING CLDS. WL KNOCK TMPS WAY BACK DUE TO LARGE STABLE COLD POOL AND NORTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO COME ALONG TO BREAK INVERSION. AGAIN WL BE QUITE A GRADIENT ACRS PARTLY SUNNY WARM SIDE AND CLOUDY COOL SIDE TO FNT. ADDITION OF MSTR TO STABLE LYR MAKES FOR AN FOG CONCERN TONIGHT AS FLOW TURNS MORE ELY AND FINALLY SELY AS STARTS TO WARM AGAIN ALFT. WL HOLD OFF NOW WITH DECENT GRADIENT AND SHUD BE LOOKING MORE AT 2-4SM STUFF OVERALL...BUT WL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS IF THINK A MILE OR LESS WL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MCS DEVELOPMENT LKLY TO BE W OF LAST NIGHT...AND PERHAPS TO S AND SE AS WELL WITH APPROACH OF SUBTROPICAL PLUME...BUT BY FAR BEST THETA-E SUPPORT IS TO W. GUTSY MOVE WOULD BE TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY FM NERN AREAS. ON THU...WMFNT MOVES NWRD AS DEEPER SLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND SOME JET ENERGY COMES INTO THE WRN PLAINS WITH WRN TROUGH. A FAIR AMT OF MSTR ADVECTION AND WK ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF SFC FRONTAL BNDRY. HOWEVER...SEEMS TO GET MORE FOCUSED THROUGH THE DAY TO THE N...AS MID LVL TROUGH LIFTS TO N. SFC FNT WL COME INTO FAR SRN CWA AGAIN WITH DECENT SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION THRU MUCH OF NE AS LOW DEEPENS IN LEE TROUGHING ACRS ERN CO AND SWRN NE. THIS WL SET UP A NICE DRY SLOT INTRUSTION FOR LTR THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND DYNAMICS LEADING THIS SHUD SET UP A GOOD LKLY SCENARIO FOR TSRA. BEST SEVERE THREAT IN SHORT TERM LKLY TO COME WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT TIMING IS NOT IN THE BEST FAVOR...AND WOULD SHOW GREATER PREFERENCE EARLY IN TSRA LIFE CYCLE TO SW OF CWA. SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL A DISTINCT THREAT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...WITH A TRAINING TYPE WINDFLOW. WL TAKE MIXING ON FRIDAY TO THE MAX BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH CONSERVATIVELY WITH DEEPER WLY COMP TAKES WELL INTO 80S. GFS HAS BEEN IDENTIFYING A CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL ALG FRONTAL BNDRY WHICH WL LINGER E OF I29 EARLY AFTN. IF SLOWER...COULD BE SET UP FOR SOME SCT STRONG STORM ALONG CDFNT/DRYLINE DURG AFTN IN ERN CWA. FROM THIS POINT ON...EXTENDED RANGE FCST IS FAIRLY QUIET. WL HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS IN LINE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS TRAILING KICKER WAVE WITH NICE JET SWINGS BY. WHILE GFS HAS BEEN BULLISH WITH PCPN...WL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THERE IS TRULY POTENTIAL FOR SIG RAINFALL. NWLY FLOW ALFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UNTIL AT LEAST TUE...WHEN COULD SEE SOME SCT WAA ACTION. && .FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ CHAPMAN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 410 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. AGAIN MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION THIS MORNING REVOLVES AROUND CREATING WX/POP GRIDS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. CONVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM SWRN CWA INTO ERN CWA. SEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 85H THETA-E FORCING NOTED THIS EVENING ON THE 00Z ETA/M-ETA. THIS FORCING IS FCSTD TO CONT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE WASHING OUT. LATEST KABR 88D DATA SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA SHIELD WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE KPIR AREA. WILL HIT PCPN HARD THIS MORNING...AND BASED ON SLOWNESS OF SHIELD...MENTION PSBL HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING AS WELL. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY QUITE A BIT. 06Z RUC SHOWS WARM FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY NORTH DURING MORNING...WHICH SHOULD AID IN PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF CWA. FOR TONIGHT...FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD THE WEST. MODELS BOTH AGREE ON BRINGING STRONG 5H S/W OUT OF MAIN LONGWAVE TROF. FORCING ON 85H AND 7H THETA-E SFC GO NEUTRAL ACROSS THE ERN CWA...AND ISEN FORCING ON 305K LAYER ALSO GOES NEUTRAL. 305K BEST NET ISEN OMEGA ALSO SHIFTS TO THE WEST. WITH ERLY FLOW STILL AT SFC...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE PCPN OUT OF ERN CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOULD STILL HAVE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AROUND WITH LOW SAT PRES DEF'S SEEN. TAIL END OF WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHEN SFC LOW FORMING ACROSS WYOMING REGION. WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT...HAVE NUDGED UP TEMPS OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY HASN'T CHANGED MUCH...STILL LOOKS WET AND SOGGY. STRONG 85H AND 7H THETA-E FORCING MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING DAY AS SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF PUSH TO THE EAST. PWATS STILL REMAIN GREATER THAN 1.50" ACROSS FAR ERN CWA. 7H TROF LOCATED ACROSS SD/NE BORDER 12Z THURSDAY LIFTS TO SD/ND BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY. HAVE UPPED POPS THURSDAY TO LIKELY CATEGORY AND TRIED TO TIME THEM FROM WEST-EAST DURING DAY. DOWNGLIDE AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. BY 12Z FRIDAY MOST OF CWA SHOULD BE OUT OF PCPN WITH CLEARING BEGINNING TO OCCUR. SAT PRES DEF'S INDICATE THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS ALL OF CWA BY AFTN. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM AT LEAST TO GUID NUMBERS...IF NOT A BIT HIGHER. THINGS STAY DRY AND PLEASANT THROUGH 12Z SAT. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EXTENDED MODEL FAMILIES MAINTAINING PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL S/W ON SUNDAY IN WNW FLOW...BUT THEY CONTINUE PERSISTENCE OF DRY FORECAST IN DAY 5 TIMEFRAME. PRIOR TO THIS...MAIN CHUNK OF ENERGY IN PLACE OVER NORTH CENTRAL CONUS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY LIFTS ENEWD INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. SEVERELY LIMITED FOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FROM THE GET-GO IN THE EXTENDED...SO SAW NO REASON TO STRAY FROM DRY FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED. 850HPA THERMAL PROGS AND MEX GUIDANCE SUPPORT GOING GRIDS...SO VERY LIMITED TWEAKS TO GRIDS && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE MN...NONE && HINTZ/DORN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 435 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PCPN CHANCES CURRENT CONVECTION FM SRN MN EWD TO CNTRL WI IS ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF SWLY 30KT LLJ AND SFC FNTL BNDRY. LLJ IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN THIS AM WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING CONVECTION AS WELL. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY 06Z META AND LATEST RUC. A WLY LLJ WILL REDEVELOP TNT BUT THAT WILL BE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IL. IN THE MEANTIME FNTL BNDRY WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CWA...MOVING ACROSS THE SRN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT SOME SUN IN THE FAR SOUTH...SO BELIEVE GUIDANCE TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 70S ARE MUCH TOO LOW. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTH WHICH WOULD YIELD CAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH ONLY WEAK DCVA...LITTLE TO NO LLJ AND ONLY LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT...EXPECT SCT TSTORMS VERSUS WIDESPREAD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CORFIDI MAGNITUDES OF A FEW KNOTS AND PWS AROUND 1.7 INCHES STILL SUGGEST AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD OUTLOOK BECAUSE OF ISOLD NATURE TO THE HAZARD. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NRN IL TNT AND POSSIBLY MOVE BACK NORTH THU NT OR FRI DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRES/WIND FIELD. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF TSTORMS IN FCST THROUGH SAT WITH MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATM AND WEAK LIFT FROM CONTINUED DCVA FM STREAM OF SHORTWAVES APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. IF THE STRONGER ETA SOLUTION IS REALIZED...MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN WOULD BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT AS LLJ AND MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT GET UNDERWAY. && .MKX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1014 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION...THE MODIFIED KTLH SOUNDING HAS A ML CAPE OF 2600 J/KG, PW OF 1.8 INCHES, AND K INDEX OF 34. THOSE CALCULATIONS ASSUME A SURFACE PARCEL WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 90 AND A DEWPOINT OF 70, AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ALOFT. HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12 UTC UPPER AIR DATA SHOW MID-UPPER LAYER DRYING OVER OUR AREA AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THE RUC WILL BE CORRECT IN FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON. THE ML CAPE WOULD DROP TO 1850 J/KG AND THE K INDEX TO 27. THAT WOULD CREATE A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ALSO, THE 1000-700 MB MEAN WIND (WHICH ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE) IS FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH WOULD PREVENT THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS INLAND AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. A LARGE OF AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH GEORGIA MAY ALSO COMPLICATE THE POP FORECAST. SOMETIMES THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THESE CLOUDY AND SUNNY AREAS CAN LEAD TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WHICH CAN TRIGGER DEEP CONVECTION. HAVING SAID ALL THAT, THE CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION OF LOWER POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND HIGHER POPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST LOOKS REASONABLE, AND NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECASTS WILL BE NEEDED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 230 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEFT OVER FROM THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE AND THE GULF SEABREEZE HAVE FADED OVERNIGHT AND SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR. CALM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE STATIONARY WAVE OVER EAST GA CONTINUES TO KICK OFF CONVECTION NE OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE IN GA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA BY ENHANCING THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I HAVE DECREASED THE POPS IN THE AL ZONES TO 30 TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH GUIDANCE AND ADJACENT OFFICES. CHANCE POPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND CLIMO: MAX TEMPS AROUND 90, MINS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM... (SAT-TUE) THE ECMWF AND LATEST GFS BUILD A RATHER FLAT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THIS RIDGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IN A TROUGH. IN FACT THE GFS FORECASTS A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. I HAVE FOLLOWED GFS MOS CLOSELY WHICH IS VERY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AT THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 89 70 89 70 / 50 30 50 20 PFN 87 73 87 74 / 40 30 50 20 DHN 89 72 89 72 / 30 30 50 20 ABY 88 70 89 71 / 50 30 50 20 VLD 87 69 89 70 / 50 30 50 20 CTY 88 69 87 70 / 50 30 50 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ CURRENT DISCUSSION...FOURNIER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BOLINSKI fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1100 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOW A DEEP LOW OVER GREAT BASIN. A NEAR ZONAL FLOW EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE ARE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN LOW. THE FIRST IS OVER WISCONSIN. THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO IOWA. LOW LEVEL JET IS DRAWING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION. SURFACE-500MB RH IS 80 PERCENT OVER THE U.P. WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE U.P. THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE Q-VECTORS CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN AND WITH THE DRY AIR THE SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. TRAJECTORY FORECAST CONTINUE TO SHOW COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. WITH THE WEAKER Q-VECTOR AND LACK OF SURFACE HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE LESS LIKELY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1043 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .SHORT TERM...ACTIVE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS CREEPING ITS WAY SOUTH, GOT AN ADDED BOOST FROM A WAKE LOW PRODUCED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS THAT WAS IN E UPPER THIS MORNING. NEXT AREA OF REMNANTS OF A MCS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING. RADAR IS SHOW THAT THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES ARE BELOW THE -10C LEVEL, SO LIGHTNING IS UNLIKELY THIS MORNING. SO HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING TO DOWNPLAY THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH NOON. FOR THE AFTERNOON, MODELS (GFS 06Z, ETA AND RUC 12Z) STILL SHOW THAT THE DRY AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER LEVELS IN E UPPER AND PUSH SOUTH. THIS LOOKS GOOD AS THE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO N LOWER OVER THE AFTERNOON SO THAT BY 21Z POPS FROM M-72 AND NORTH ARE 40% OR LESS. THE MAIN PROBLEM OF THE DAY THOUGH WILL BE SOUTH OF M-72 AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. THE FRONT CURRENTLY SITS SOUTH OF A STURGEON POINT TO LUDINGTON LINE, BUT THE 500 MB JET STILL HAS THE RRQ OVER THE AREA, SO WILL MAINTAIN THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS, BUT DOWNPLAY THE THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. LUTZ && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 318 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 LONG TERM...A BRIEF TRANSITION TOWARD QUIET WEATHER. AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE LAKES REGION...AHEAD OF UPPER LOW LIFTING NE FROM THE GREAT BASIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST...REACHING THE QUEBEC BORDER EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL SHOVE THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY NIGHT STRONG RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE NORTH BACK INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND FAR WESTERN LAKES. PRECIP CONCERNS ARE WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS...ETA IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN RETURNING MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS IS A DEPARTURE FROM EARLIER RUNS...AND THE ETA IN GENERAL HAS BEEN TOO WET THIS PAST WEEK. IN ADDITION THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER/DRIER GFS. TONIGHT...DRYING PROCEEDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...FIRST IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY ALOFT. POPS THUS WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE...AND BY OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE EXTREME SOUTH. EASTERN UPPER...WHICH WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...WILL HAVE A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. WITH MORE CLOUDS...NORTHERN LOWER MI WILL BE MAINLY 50 TO 55. THURSDAY...NICE DAY SHAPING UP. MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT START THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH HALF WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AND PUSH SOUTH. ETA SOUNDGINS SUGGEST LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW TO PERHAPS SCT CUMULI. COOL NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN 850MB TEMPS IN HIGH SINGLE DIGITS C...WITH CORRESPONDING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LIFT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...NEARLY STACKED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LOW. RETURN FLOW WILL POINT TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND FAR WESTERN LAKES. HOWEVER...AS A TRIPLE-POINT SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS FILLS...MOISTURE INFLOW DIMINISHES HERE AND REFOCUSES TO THE NORTH...WITH THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT EAST OF PARENT LOW NORTH OF THE BORDER. END RESULT SHOULD BE A DIMINISHING BAND OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING NE INTO THE SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP POPS OUT...AND INSTEAD JUST PLAY UP AN INCREASING CLOUD TREND. BEFORE THEN... ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN ORDER THU NIGHT (MINS IN THE 40S)...WITH MAX TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE 60S. NO CHANGES REST OF FORECAST. && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ZOLTOWSKI mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1010 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .SHORT TERM... LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS REVEALS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THEN SNAKES SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN...AND JUST ON THE DOOR STEP OF KMKE AT 13Z. ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S AND INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATERS PER FSL/S GROUND BASED GPS NEAR 1.50". MODIFYING 12Z SOUNDING WITH 86/71 SURFACE PARCEL, SHOWS CAPES NEAR 4500 J/KG WITH LI/S TO -10C. THE WET BULB AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE HIGH BETWEEN 12K-13K FEET BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS AS STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW PER CORFIDI VECTORS. CURRENTLY, WE ARE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING MCS (NEARLY STATIONARY LAST NIGHT) WITH 1KM HI-RES VISIBLE SHOWING NOTHING MORE THAN CI/CS ACROSS THE LOWER STATE. LAPS DATA CURRENTLY HAS HIGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITIONS BUT WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE, WE SHOULD ERODE THE SURFACE CAP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS BETWEEN 83-85F. WIND FIELD REMAINS WEAK PER LATEST RUC AS MODEL REVEALS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS FOCUS MECHANISM FOR THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITIONAL TO WHAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AND GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY, CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH BEST SHEAR REMAINS WELL BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE WILL REFRESH THE GRIDS AND HWO. BGM && .UPDATE...ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT WILL UPDATE TO LESSEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS MORNING AS CAP IS HOLDING STRONG ACROSS CWA. THIS LEADS TO CHANCE WORDING NORTH TO ISOLATED SOUTH. STILL LOOKS DECENT FOR ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS(S) FROM WI INTO WESTERN LOWER MI SEEMS TO BE DISRUPTING FLOW. ACTUALLY...CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW HAS SET UP IN FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI...ON CUSP OF MESOSCALE HIGH FROM STORMS AND WAVE LIFTING INTO OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY MESS THINGS UP A BIT IN THIS PREFERRED AREA (SW LOWER) AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THAT SAID...IT APPEARS FROM INITIAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THAT THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IN THIS REGION THIS MORNING... LEADING TO RATHER RAPID DESTABILIZATION WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY AROUND 70 F. BOTTOM LINE...RATHER VIGOROUS...ALBEIT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED DURING LATER 1/2 OF THE DAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH UPPER LOWS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE WEST COAST. OBSERVED +110KT 300MB JET EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO NORTHERN LOWER...EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO COLORADO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW CONVECTION MAINLY ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO WISCONSIN...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT FROM WESTERN LOWER TO NORTHERN HURON. MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE WITH PRECIP/SEVERE CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. ETA/GFS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT FEATURE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT IMPACT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE STATE BY 12Z THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. ETA IS A BIT STRONGER/FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF COLD FRONT. BIG DIFFERENCES WITH THE WAY THE TWO MODELS HANDLE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT THOUGH...WHICH LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT/SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD. FOR TODAY...SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWA. BOUNDARY IS NOT ALL THAT WELL DEFINED...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY CURRENTLY AVAILABLE TO GET STORMS GOING AHEAD OF IT. 03Z RUC ANALYSIS/FORECAST SHOW THE CAP IN PLACE EARLIER WEAKENING ACROSS WESTERN LOWER...BUT STILL TRYING TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. 600MB TEMPS ONLY SLOWLY DROP FROM 2C ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH COULD EXPLAIN WHY STORMS ARE HAVING SUCH A HARD TIME MAKING IT EASTWARD. HOWEVER AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPROACHES THIS MORNING AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL...WE SHOULD SEE STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA. WILL START WITH NUMEROUS TSRA IN THE NORTH WHERE STORMS ARE TRYING TO FIRE NEAR THE FRONT...AND START WITH SCATTERED IN THE SOUTH. A FEW CELLS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...HENCE THE CHANCE POPS INITIALLY. WILL THEN KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER INSTABILITY/DROPPING HEIGHTS AND THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING. SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR TODAY. LAPSE ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES OVER 1000J/KG CAPE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. IR SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEAR BREAKS UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS MAINLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH COULD HELP TO PROPEL TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AGAIN. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S...WHICH WILL LEAD TO OVER 2000J/KG CAPE/LIS DOWN TO -5C. WIND FIELD IS STILL PRETTY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 30M/S BY AFTERNOON. 850MB JET ALSO PICKS UP...WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 30KTS. COULD SEE SOME MULTICELL STORMS...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM PULSE SEVERE. WIND/HAIL BOTH LOOK POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH FREEZING LEVELS UP TO 14-15KFT. STORM MOTION IS LESS THAN 20KTS...AND ORIENTATION TO INFLOW SUPPORTS BACKBUILDING/TRAINING ECHOES...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES /ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT DTX/...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED UPSTREAM AT GRB/MPX LAST NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME APPARENT. ETA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT...AND KEEPS IT GOING ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEVELOPS AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING...WHICH CUTS OFF THE MOISTURE FEED INTO THE STATE AND CONSEQUENTLY SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN WHAT IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING TONIGHT...EVENING NORTH/ALL NIGHT SOUTH. SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER 850MB FRONT LINGERS BACKS NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY...AND CUT BACK FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT IS VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG COMPLEX...WHICH SHOULD BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ETA IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH ITS LOW-LEVEL JET...HOWEVER INSTEAD DEVELOPING STORMS FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. WESTERN LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BECOMING RATHER BROAD AS SOME ENERGY REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WEST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHORTWAVES AND SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO DISPLACE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK TO THE NORTH. BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNDER FALLING HEIGHTS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD. ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE FRONT MOVING BACK INTO THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE STILL TRIES TO HOLD ON ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA...FOLLOWED BY CHANCE EVERYWHERE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BRAVENDER/GURNEY EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 720 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .UPDATE... WILL UPDATE TO LESSEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS MORNING AS CAP IS HOLDING STRONG ACROSS CWA. THIS LEADS TO CHANCE WORDING NORTH TO ISOLATED SOUTH. STILL LOOKS DECENT FOR ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS(S) FROM WI INTO WESTERN LOWER MI SEEMS TO BE DISRUPTING FLOW. ACTUALLY...CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW HAS SET UP IN FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI...ON CUSP OF MESOSCALE HIGH FROM STORMS AND WAVE LIFTING INTO OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY MESS THINGS UP A BIT IN THIS PREFERRED AREA (SW LOWER) AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THAT SAID...IT APPEARS FROM INITIAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THAT THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IN THIS REGION THIS MORNING... LEADING TO RATHER RAPID DESTABILIZATION WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY AROUND 70 F. BOTTOM LINE...RATHER VIGOROUS...ALBEIT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED DURING LATER 1/2 OF THE DAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT. 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH UPPER LOWS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE WEST COAST. OBSERVED +110KT 300MB JET EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO NORTHERN LOWER...EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO COLORADO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW CONVECTION MAINLY ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO WISCONSIN...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT FROM WESTERN LOWER TO NORTHERN HURON. MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE WITH PRECIP/SEVERE CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. ETA/GFS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT FEATURE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT IMPACT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE STATE BY 12Z THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. ETA IS A BIT STRONGER/FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF COLD FRONT. BIG DIFFERENCES WITH THE WAY THE TWO MODELS HANDLE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT THOUGH...WHICH LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT/SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD. FOR TODAY...SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWA. BOUNDARY IS NOT ALL THAT WELL DEFINED...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY CURRENTLY AVAILABLE TO GET STORMS GOING AHEAD OF IT. 03Z RUC ANALYSIS/FORECAST SHOW THE CAP IN PLACE EARLIER WEAKENING ACROSS WESTERN LOWER...BUT STILL TRYING TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. 600MB TEMPS ONLY SLOWLY DROP FROM 2C ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH COULD EXPLAIN WHY STORMS ARE HAVING SUCH A HARD TIME MAKING IT EASTWARD. HOWEVER AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPROACHES THIS MORNING AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL...WE SHOULD SEE STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA. WILL START WITH NUMEROUS TSRA IN THE NORTH WHERE STORMS ARE TRYING TO FIRE NEAR THE FRONT...AND START WITH SCATTERED IN THE SOUTH. A FEW CELLS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...HENCE THE CHANCE POPS INITIALLY. WILL THEN KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER INSTABILITY/DROPPING HEIGHTS AND THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING. SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR TODAY. LAPSE ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES OVER 1000J/KG CAPE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. IR SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEAR BREAKS UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS MAINLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH COULD HELP TO PROPEL TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AGAIN. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S...WHICH WILL LEAD TO OVER 2000J/KG CAPE/LIS DOWN TO -5C. WIND FIELD IS STILL PRETTY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 30M/S BY AFTERNOON. 850MB JET ALSO PICKS UP...WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 30KTS. COULD SEE SOME MULTICELL STORMS...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM PULSE SEVERE. WIND/HAIL BOTH LOOK POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH FREEZING LEVELS UP TO 14-15KFT. STORM MOTION IS LESS THAN 20KTS...AND ORIENTATION TO INFLOW SUPPORTS BACKBUILDING/TRAINING ECHOES...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES /ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT DTX/...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED UPSTREAM AT GRB/MPX LAST NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME APPARENT. ETA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT...AND KEEPS IT GOING ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEVELOPS AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING...WHICH CUTS OFF THE MOISTURE FEED INTO THE STATE AND CONSEQUENTLY SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN WHAT IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING TONIGHT...EVENING NORTH/ALL NIGHT SOUTH. SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER 850MB FRONT LINGERS BACKS NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY...AND CUT BACK FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT IS VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG COMPLEX...WHICH SHOULD BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ETA IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH ITS LOW-LEVEL JET...HOWEVER INSTEAD DEVELOPING STORMS FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. WESTERN LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BECOMING RATHER BROAD AS SOME ENERGY REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WEST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHORTWAVES AND SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO DISPLACE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK TO THE NORTH. BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNDER FALLING HEIGHTS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD. ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE FRONT MOVING BACK INTO THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE STILL TRIES TO HOLD ON ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA...FOLLOWED BY CHANCE EVERYWHERE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BRAVENDER/GURNEY EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 1015 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 LOOKS LIKE ERN ND AND NW MN SHOULD BE SAFE THIS AFTN/EVE FROM ELEVATED SHOWERS WHICH PLAGUED THE AREA ON TUESDAY. RUC SHOWS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE 500-700 MB MOISTURE AROUND OVER SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WRN ND...BUT ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MAIN 700 MB FRONT YHAT WAS OVER SRN ND/NRN SD TUESDAY HAS WASHED OUT. THUS UPDATED ZFP/GRIDDS TO REMOVE MORNING PCPN SE ND/WCNTRL MN. UPPER FLOW STILL FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THUS SPREADING SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTN...BUT ENOUGH HOLES SHOWING UP IN VSBL PIX TO MENTION SOME SUN IN MOST AREAS. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES SO LOOK FOR AFTN MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S PER FCST. NEW ETA SHOWING NEXT SYSTEM ON TARGET TO COME IN THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SVR STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTN. SYSTEM STILL PROGRESSIVE. WHILE QUICK HEAVY RAINS (OVER 1 IN/6HR) CERTAINLY VERY PSBL...LONG TERM PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN DOESNT LOOK LIKELY. && .HYDROLOGY... REGION STILL PRETTY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL...BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HIT ANY ONE AREA WITH A GREATER PCPN THREAT THAN ANOTHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER 1.50 INCHES AND THE OPEN GULF WILL KEEP A FLOODING THREAT POSSIBLE ...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ATTM. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ RIDDLE nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1010 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .UPDATE... WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE VORT FURTHER SOUTH ACRS GA THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WITH RUC LOOKING TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE THAN 06Z SHORT RANGE MODELS...DRIFTING IT ENE FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEAN FLOW IS EVEN WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL LIFT THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE... PROBABLY JUST SOME SPOKES OF WEAK DPVA CIRCULATING AROUND THE WAVE. AT ANY RATE STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CVRG BEST IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LEAST IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...ROUGHLY BASED ON MEAN RH GRADIENT. PWATS ON OBSERVED 12Z SNDGS ABOUT 125% OF NORMAL AND WITH THE WEAK STEERING FLOW...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH BREAKS IN THE WEST LIKELY TO FILL IN THROUGH MIDDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS INTERACTION OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH...PERSISTENT SURFACE CONVERGENT AXIS TO OUR SOUTH...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND PW/S IN EXCESS OF 130% OF NORMAL SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. IN FACT...CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE CWFA... PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THEREFORE...WILL START OUT THE MORNING WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS ONCE AGAIN THAT THE BEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN NC...AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG THE CONVERGENT AXIS...AND DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS THAT MANAGE TO SEE SOME PEAKS OF SUN THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN FURTHER LATER TODAY...AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE AREA WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A LEE TROUGH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. PLUS...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES REMAIN QUITE MOIST TOMORROW...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR AREA IS A THREAT FOR CONVECTION ORGANIZING ALONG THE FRONT...THEN RIDING NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWFA THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS TO REFLECT THIS THREAT. THE 00Z ETA SLIPS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CWFA THROUGH THE BACKDOOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THAT IT'S EARLY JUNE...HAVE SOME SUSPICIONS ABOUT THIS OCCURRING...AND WILL FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH EVEN IT BACKDOORS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST TOKEN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHWEST. NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST PAST FRIDAY. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ CSH sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1030 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... LAPS DATA VOID OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WITH UPPER AIR PATTERN ANTI-PRECIP. HOWEVER...UPDATE WITH RUC AND META MODELS SHOW WIND BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO NORTH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY...TOUCHING OFF LOCAL QPF. BEST CHANCE OF LATE DAY STORMS IN THE PLATEAU. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME...JUST UPDATE FOR WORDING. && .BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 04 tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 955 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO MOVING INTO HIDALGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM EAST OF SAN FERNANDO TO LA PESCA. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TX. RUC 1000-500MB RH/STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO TX. WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGES AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS INDICATES SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TX PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL TX AND OVER THE PLAINS OF THE PANHANDLE. WITH 500MB TROUGH AXIS OVER WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON...BELIEVE SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ADJUST GRIDS AND UPDATE ZONES TO REFLECT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. && .MARINE...RADAR DEPICTED JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL PUSHING UP FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE MEXICAN GULF COAST. BUOY 020 REPORTED SEAS OF 8 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY UP IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THAT PERIOD. && .AVIATION...THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT FROM THE SURFACE TO THE TROPOPAUSE AND A MVFR LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE 12Z KBRO UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.36 INCHES...QUITE HIGH. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON SURFACE WIND SPEEDS SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 25 KNOTS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE H5 LOW OVER THE BIG BEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THUS...AT LEAST ONE INGREDIENT... INSTABILITY...WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE RAINMAKING EQUATION FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SOME DRY AIR DOES SEEM TO BE FILLING IN BEHIND THE LOW...SO DRYING ALOFT...IF NOT AT LOWER LEVELS...ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON TAP. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE SUPPLY NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THERE TODAY. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS THE H5 LOW ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE COUNTRY BECOMES MORE ZONAL...AND ALLOWS RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC TO SHIFT SOUTH AND BEAR MORE DIRECTLY ON THE NORTHERN GULF AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE GFS DEPICTS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE WEST COST AND INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY MORE TROPICAL ACTIVITY. AS H5 RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF WEAKNESS FORMS OVER THE WEST GULF. THIS COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE RELEASE AIR OF CONTINENTAL POLAR ORIGIN FROM CANADA AND...ALTHOUGH AIR MASS DIFFERENCES WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS COLD SEASON DIFFERENCES...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION TO BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA FOR GMZ150-155-170-175. && $$ 61/69/VEGA THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1019 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .SYNOPSIS... HI PRESS ALG THE CST AND ALOFT THIS AFTN. && .DISCUSSION... ADDED A SLIGHT CHC TO PARTS OF THE SE THIS AFTN. LOOKED AT AM SOUNDINGS AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH AFTN HI IN THE LOW 90S AND DPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WSETA AND RUC SUPPORT A WEAK BOUNDARY WITH SOME CONVG OVR SE AND WITH SEABREEZE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A SLGT CHC THIS PM. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SBY 90 70 87 64 / 10 10 50 40 OXB 84 70 83 64 / 10 10 50 40 WAL 88 72 84 66 / 10 10 40 40 FVX 92 69 89 67 / 20 10 40 40 RIC 92 70 90 68 / 10 10 40 40 PTB 92 70 91 68 / 10 10 40 40 AKQ 91 70 91 68 / 10 10 40 30 PHF 91 72 90 69 / 10 10 40 40 ORF 90 73 90 70 / 10 10 30 30 ECG 89 72 89 70 / 20 10 30 30 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. VA...NONE. NC...NONE. && $$ 92 va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 228 PM MDT WED JUN 9 2004 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY) CURRENTLY...3000 J/KG OVER PLAINS. SHEAR IS INCREASING PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. DEWS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND WILL NOT MIX OUT MUCH MORE. BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER THE PALMER DVD. FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL. AFTERNOON...BUSY DAY ANTICIPATED. STORMS ALREADY FIRING BUT BETTER STORMS WILL GO BY MID AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS LIKELY WITH A FEW TORS POSSIBLE AND EXPECT T BOX BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. DEEP SHEAR IS ONLY GOING TO GET GRADUALLY BETTER AND THIS SHOWN BY 00Z RUC WITH 3500 J/KG ON PLAINS POINTING TOWARD PALMER DVD AND 45 KNTS DEEP SHEAR. FIRE WX...NO CHANGES HERE IN SHORT TERM. WINDS INCREASING AS I WRITE. WITH STRONG DYNAMICS COMING OUT AND SOME MOISTURE...EXPECT ISOLD FIRE STARTING CGS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SVR AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS WILL BE WITH US. DUE TO MERIDIONAL FLOW...STORMS MAY HUG THE I-25 CORRIDOR MORE THEN NORMAL. BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT ALL OF THIS TO CLEAR OUT AS TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS TOMORROW...CLEAR AND WINDS. FIRE WX WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE NWS PUB CWA. WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. .LONG TERM... (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY) WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGE AT 700 MB PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE...THEN MOVE SLOWLY BACK NORTH SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. COOLING OF AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGREES WILL PERSIST OVER OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TODAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220<225. INCLUDES THE SAN JUAN MTNS... CENTRAL MTNS...SAN LUIS VALLEY...SOUTHERN MTNS AND PIKES PEAK/TELLER COUNTY. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220<225. INCLUDES THE SAN JUAN MTNS...CENTRAL MTNS...SAN LUIS VALLEY...SOUTHERN MTNS AND PIKES PEAK/TELLER COUNTY AND THE EASTERN PLAINS. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 140 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .SHORT RANGE (DAYS 0-3)... SCT TSRA DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG RELATIVE MAX IN PW FIELD, AND AHEAD OF SUBTLE UPPER TROP SPEED MAX OVER SRN IL/MO. FOLLOWING THE RUC, LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE BY MID EVE. FLOW PTTN DURING MOST OF SHORT TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER SERN CONUS, AND CHCS FOR PCPN EACH DAY WITHIN UNCAPPED ENVIRON. FRONTAL BDY WHICH IS FCST TO SETTLE SWD INTO IN/OH TOMORROW SHOULD PROVIDE SOME FLAVOR OF FOCUS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT, ESP ALONG/N OF I-64. PCPN EFFICIENCY PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINS THU AFT/EVE, GIVEN FREEZING LVLS NEAR 4KM, PWS AOA 2", AND A WIND PROFILE POINTING TWDS SLOW MVG/TRAINING CELLS. SFC BDY FCST TO LIFT NWD MORE INTO GREAT LAKES FRI AS 500MB WAVE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT WILL LEAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER NRN FA GIVEN SOME SPREAD IN SOLNS BTWN GFS/ETA. FEATURE OF NOTE ON SAT IS EXTREME INSTABILITY FCST TO DEVELOP (GFS CAPES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG) OVER OH VLY. TS CELLS MAY ORGANIZE ALONG COLD POOLS WITHIN RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WHICH COULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY. SOMETHING TO WATCH. XXV .LONG RANGE (DAYS 4-7)... EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE WITH PUSHING THE PERSISTENT CENTRAL U.S. TROF INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE FCST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRAGGING A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BY WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS EXTENDED FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MON/TUE PERIOD TO BUMP UP POPS AND SKY COVER A BIT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLS THROUGH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...00Z TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD AND WILL USE A GENERAL BLEND OF HPC/OP NUMBERS FOR THIS FORECAST. -JARVIS && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 340 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... TROPICAL PLUME CONTINUES TO GENERATE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...WITH SHEAR AXIS DELINEATING AREA OF MOST PRONOUNCED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK OCCURRING IN PRECIPITATION AT TIME...WITH PROFILER NETWORK INDICATING PASSAGE OF ONE IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE FEATURES THAT ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE SHEAR ZONE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORIENTATION TROPICAL PLUME OR CHANGE IN ORIENTATION IN SHEAR ZONE...THUS WILL CONTINUE MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LAPS AND FORECAST ETA SOUNDINGS DEPICTING NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE PROFILES...THUS KEPT THUNDER WORDING TO ISOLATED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE LONGEST PERIODS WITHOUT RAINFALL THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT CHANCES IN THIS AREA TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR GRADUALLY FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS UNTIL 18Z. A LITTLE MORE MID-LEVEL DRYING...AND MORE HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO ADDED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ATTENDANT PLUME AND SHEAR ZONE TO MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING...THUS BACKED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AREA. QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO SOUTHWEST STATES WILL HELP IGNITE STORMS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A MID-LEVEL CAP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THUS ONLY KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE MISSOURI-IOWA BORDER WHICH WILL LIE ALONG CAPS NORTHERN EDGE. RIGHT NOW...HAVE DEVELOPED FORECAST WITH IDEA THAT CAP WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...WILL HAVE WATCH SITUATION CLOSELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE VARIANCE OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL RECOVER A LITTLE ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS WEEK. PINNING DOWN SHORTWAVE TIMING IN THE WESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO ADD COMPLEXITY TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE GFS AND ETA SOLUTIONS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ETA BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION...WITH THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS ON SATURDAY TO COVER POTENTIAL IMPULSE-INITIATED ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NOCTURNAL/LLJ CONVECTION TO ENTER NORTHWEST MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVE BEHAVIOR...MAY SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE RE-DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...IT IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS TIMING OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER MOSTLY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION...BUT THE THREAT LOOKS HIGHEST ON SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT (AS AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT/DRY LINE) AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON (AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS). SF/LS && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1143 AM... UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. LIGHTNING NETWORK IS NOT DETECTING ANY ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPS AND ETA20 SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. DUE TO PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND CLOUDS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY...SO DID A QUICK UPDATE OF GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. ALSO...LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A NOTCH. SF 409 AM... MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHWARD...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION WITH CAPE LESS THAN 1500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT OR ABOVE 1.5"...SO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH. NO BOUNDARY IN THE AREA TO FOCUS ON AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE ALL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. LOWEST VALUES...RIGHT AT 2 INCHES...ARE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE A LITTLE LOWER. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY. LOWERED TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO MORE FROM THE EVENING UPDATE. SHOULD MAYBE HAVE GONE A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSOURI COUNTIES WHERE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST OR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S THERE. ETA AND GFS BOTH PROG ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH DIFFERENCES IN POSITION. ETA LINES UP QPF UNDER SHEARED OUT VORT LOBE OVER THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER AND IS A LITTLE MORE GUNG-HO WITH POPS...HOWEVER QPF IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY LOW. GFS BRINGS QPF ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD. ALSO BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AIRMASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED AND QUITE UNSTABLE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO BIG CHANGES MADE. NRR 910 PM TUE... EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION WHILE FURTHER UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN CA. MEAN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS FLOW...RESULTING FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN TX INTO NORTHWEST MO. WEAK VORTICITY FEATURES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHERE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS RESIDES. 18Z MODEL RUNS WERE IN STRONG AGREEMENT DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS EASTERN OK/KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MO AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AND NEW 00Z RUC MODEL APPEARS TO BE IN BASIC AGREEMENT...SPREADING 850MB MOISTURE AXIS INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO LATE TONIGHT. TOP/SGF EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN DEEP MOIST AIRMASS...AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF CWA...POSSIBLY REACHING KC METRO AREA TOWARDS MORNING. HAVE RAISED POPS FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD FOR LATE TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES PROGGED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER. SEAMAN && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1143 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. LIGHTNING NETWORK IS NOT DETECTING ANY ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPS AND ETA20 SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. DUE TO PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND CLOUDS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY...SO DID A QUICK UPDATE OF GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. ALSO...LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A NOTCH. SF && .PREV DISCUSSION... 409 AM... MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHWARD...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION WITH CAPE LESS THAN 1500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT OR ABOVE 1.5"...SO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH. NO BOUNDARY IN THE AREA TO FOCUS ON AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE ALL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. LOWEST VALUES...RIGHT AT 2 INCHES...ARE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE A LITTLE LOWER. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY. LOWERED TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO MORE FROM THE EVENING UPDATE. SHOULD MAYBE HAVE GONE A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSOURI COUNTIES WHERE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST OR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S THERE. ETA AND GFS BOTH PROG ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH DIFFERENCES IN POSITION. ETA LINES UP QPF UNDER SHEARED OUT VORT LOBE OVER THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER AND IS A LITTLE MORE GUNG-HO WITH POPS...HOWEVER QPF IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY LOW. GFS BRINGS QPF ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD. ALSO BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AIRMASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED AND QUITE UNSTABLE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO BIG CHANGES MADE. NRR 910 PM TUE... EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION WHILE FURTHER UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN CA. MEAN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS FLOW...RESULTING FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN TX INTO NORTHWEST MO. WEAK VORTICITY FEATURES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHERE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS RESIDES. 18Z MODEL RUNS WERE IN STRONG AGREEMENT DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS EASTERN OK/KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MO AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AND NEW 00Z RUC MODEL APPEARS TO BE IN BASIC AGREEMENT...SPREADING 850MB MOISTURE AXIS INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO LATE TONIGHT. TOP/SGF EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN DEEP MOIST AIRMASS...AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF CWA...POSSIBLY REACHING KC METRO AREA TOWARDS MORNING. HAVE RAISED POPS FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD FOR LATE TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES PROGGED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER. SEAMAN 230 PM... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DEPICTING REMNANTS OF MCV OVER EASTERN KANSAS...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND INTO NEBRASKA. HASN'T SPAWNED MUCH PRECIPITATION...ONLY A FEW TRACE AMOUNTS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED AND SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. TWO FEATURES WORTH NOTING...AN 850MB TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA...AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS. 850MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STAY TO THE NORTH...BUT VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM TEXAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCES INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH INCREASING POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING ENTIRE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE RAIN...THE ENTIRE DAY WON'T BE A WASH. AS VORT MAX EXITS...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS GOOD...TEMPS LOOK IN GOOD ORDER...NO CHANGES MADE. WARM AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH ETA...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOWING A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH IN THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH FRIDAY THE MOST LIKELY DAY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREE MARK. LATEST ETA RUN DISSOLVES CAP FAIRLY QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING STORMS TO ERUPT ON CWA DOORSTEP...WHILE GFS KEEPS LID ON. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN GOING FORECAST OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY OF STORMS ON FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GIVE AREA A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS DEVELOPING MCS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THAT IS PROJECTED TO ROLL ACROSS FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW MOVING INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT TIME...WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES THEN WILL DIG A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END STRONG CONVECTION THREAT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL PROVIDE AREA WITH WELCOMED REPRIEVE FROM WARM AND HUMID WEATHER. LEINS/SF && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 337 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE...WHICH IS EAST AND NORTH OF PIVOTING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND WITHIN THE ALONG-STREAM VARIATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS REAR OF THE JET AXIS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT OPPORTUNITY EXISTS OVERNIGHT FOR ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN...WITH SOME OF IT HEAVY. 18Z RUC SUGGESTS THAT BETWEEN 00-06Z STRONG ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY STRENGTHENING OF THE LEVEL JET...AND RE-ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER JET FROM MISSOURI...SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS LIKELY OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME...COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. BY 12Z...EXPECT THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE TO BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY...TO CHICKASHA...TO HENRIETTA. DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAJORITY OF ASCENT/COOLING EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THERE EXISTS A PERIOD FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD INFLUENCE WESTERN OKLAHOMA. INSOLATION SHOULD BE LIMITED THURSDAY DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD COVER. A REPEAT OF THURSDAY MAY OCCUR FRIDAY WITH THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE POSSIBLY BEING MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE. BUT DURING THIS PERIOD...THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW POPS FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS THAN EXTENDS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND/OR THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW POPS JUSTIFIED DURING ITS APPROACH AND PASSAGE. REGION MAY BE INFLUENCED BY A DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH AIRMASS THEN MODIFYING BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRYLINE RE-DEVELOPING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 85 71 88 / 90 30 20 10 HOBART OK 70 87 70 90 / 60 20 20 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 71 85 71 89 / 80 10 20 10 GAGE OK 68 90 68 91 / 50 30 30 10 PONCA CITY OK 69 84 70 88 / 90 30 20 10 DURANT OK 70 84 72 88 / 100 30 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTHERN...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR CLAY COUNTY. && $$ JAMES EFFECTIVE 11 AM TUESDAY JUNE 15 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM AFDOKC TO AFDOUN. THE WMO HEADER WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE COMPLETED BY JUNE 15 2004. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 345 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THU...AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI AS SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE SO WILL FOLLOW FOR EARLY PERIODS. FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IL BY MORNING...AS SURFACE HIGH OVER ONTARIO SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKES. DRIER NORTHEAST WILL BRING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S TONIGHT...THUS WILL END PCPN FROM N TO S THIS EVENING. EXPECT GRADIANT TO STAY UP SOME...SO WILL NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME. RIDGE ALOFT TO BUILD IN ON THU AHEAD OF TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND KEEP THU DRY...THOUGH WITH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES WARMER NORTH. TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH PERIOD. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACHING WI THURSDAY NIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH WI AND A WARM FRONT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE STATE. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WI AND A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH WI SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SURFACE AND UPPER FEATURES TO GET PRECIPITATION GOING FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MG/TE WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB wi