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California Motor Vehicle Stock, Travel and Fuel Forecast
Click HERE for graphic. CALIFORNIA MOTOR VEHICLE STOCK, TRAVEL AND FUEL FORECAST CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION OFFICE OF TRAFFIC IMPROVEMENT NOVEMBER 1993 This report was prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration Table of Contents Page List of Tables and Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ii I. SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 II. INTRODUCTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 III. MVSTAFF PROCESS OVERVIEW. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 IV. FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 V. FORECAST RESULTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 A. Motor Vehicle Stock. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 B. Vehicle Miles of Travel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 C. Vehicle Fuel Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29 D. Vehicle Fuel Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33 REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36 APPENDIX A: Vehicle Body Type Definitions . . . . . . . . . . .37 APPENDIX B: California vehicle Miles of Travel By County & Road System 1990, 1992, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 & 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38 i List of Tables and Figures Table No. Page 1 California Vehicles-In-use. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 2 California vehicle Miles of Travel. . . . . . . . . . . . . .26 3 California Vehicle Fuel Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . .30 4 California On-Road Vehicle Fuel Economy . . . . . . . . . . .34 Figure No. S1 1993 Motor Vehicle Stock, Travel and Fuel Forecast Summary:. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 S2 Change by Decade in Annual VMT and Main Variables Affecting it. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 S3 California Vehicle Miles of Travel, 1965-2015 . . . . . . . . 5 S4 California On-Road Vehicle Fuel Consumption 1965-2015 . . . . 5 1 Motor Vehicle Stock, Travel and Fuel Forecasting Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2 California Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 3 U.S. Consumer Price Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 4 California Total Personal Income in 1967 Dollars. . . . . . .15 5 California Personal Income Per Person in 1967 Dollars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 6 Gasoline Price Per Gallon in 1967 Dollars . . . . . . . . . .17 7 Prime Lending Rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 8 California Total Vehicles-In-Use. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 9 California Vehicles-In-Use by Body Type . . . . . . . . . . .23 10 California Total Vehicle Miles of Travel. . . . . . . . . . .24 11 California Vehicle Miles of Travel by Body Type . . . . . . .27 12 California Total Vehicle On-Road Fuel Consumption . . . . . .28 13 California On-Road Vehicle Fuel Consumption by Body Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31 14 California Total Fleet On-Road Fuel Economy . . . . . . . . .32 15 California On-Road Vehicle Fuel Economy by-Body Type. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35 ii I. SUMMARY This is the ninth of a series of California Motor Vehicle Stock, Travel and Fuel Forecast (MVSTAFF) reports. The reports provide historical estimates and forecasts of the number of vehicles, miles of travels, fuel consumption, and fuel economy on a statewide basis. The forecasts are disaggregated into six vehicle body types (autos, four weight classes of trucks, and motorcycles) and two fuel types (gasoline and diesel). The forecasts are primarily intended for short and long range statewide transportation planning,, traffic forecasting and projections of revenues from excise taxes on fuel. In response to numerous requests, the statewide vehicle miles of travel (VMT) forecasts are distributed among the 58 counties and two major road systems (State Highways and all Other Public Roads) for substate planning and impact analysis. For the purpose of air quality conformity analysis the 1990 county VMT table is included in the appendix. The MVSTAFF process requires long-term projections of statewide population, economic growth (total personal income), fuel prices, inflation, and interest rates. For this forecast, population numbers were obtained from the latest California Department of Finance (DOF) population projection reports (Ref. 4 and 5). The 1993 California personal income was from the California Commission On State Finance forecast report (Ref. 3). Projections of all other economic variables, including fuel price, were derived from the WEPA GROUP, "U.S. Long-Term Economic outlook, 3rd Quarter 199311 (Ref. 7). The WEFA GROUP projections represent a "trend/moderate growth" scenario. The MVSTAFF forecast, therefore, reflects the same scenario superimposed on the DOF population projections and the existing legislation regarding current and future sales and excise taxes on fuel. The socioeconomic assumptions are further documented in the report. The forecast results are summarized in Figure Sl. For the current year (1993), total vehicles-in-use, vehicle miles of travel (VMT), and vehicle fuel consumption (VFC) are projected to change by - 0.5%, 1.3%, and -0.2%, respectively, from the previous year. The drop in vehicles-in-use and the small increase in VMT are primarily due to the result of the recession. The drop in fuel consumption is caused by the increase in MPG which is due to new, more fuel efficient vehicles entering and old, less fuel efficiency vehicles leaving the fleet. In 1994 the economy is expected to rebound slightly with moderate rises in real total personal income (2.8%), vehicles-in-use (2.5%), VMT (1.0%) and fuel consumptions (0.1%). The long-term forecast is for vehicles-in-use, miles of travel, and fuel consumption to continue to increase but at declining rates. Under the assumption that the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standard for new cars will remain at 27.5 MPG and 1 the projected increase in the proportion of heavy duty truck travel, the fleet fuel economy will reach a peak value of 19.3 MPG by year 2012 and then level off. Past and projected growth in California VMT are affected by: population, real total personal income per person (ipp), vehicles per person (VPP), and the fuel cost per mile (FCPM) of travel, all of which are put in a historical perspective in Figure S2. The figure shows the percent change in the variables, from the beginning of one decade to the next, for the past 40 years and the 20-year forecast period. The following can be noted from the figure: - The decade of the 1950's experienced a 71% increase in VMT which was driven primarily by a 49% increase in population and helped along with moderate increases in per capita total personal income and vehicle ownership. - The 1960's saw a 64% increase in VMT although the population grew at about half the rate that it did in the 1950's (26% vs the previous 49%). The driving force in the 1960's would appear to be the growth in per capita income and vehicle ownership, the highest in the 40-year history. - The 1970's produced the smallest percentage increase in VMT (38%) in the last 40 years as a result of the lowest percentage increase in population in 40 years, a slower growing economy and sharply rising fuel prices in the last half of the decade. - In the 1980's, VMT grew by 62%, rivaling its growth in the 1950's and 1960's. At the same time, per capita income and vehicle ownership grew by only 12% and 7%, respectively; the lowest rates in the 40-year history. Most of the growth in VMT in the 1980's can therefore be attributed to strong population gains (26%) and the precipitous drop in the real fuel cost per mile of travel (57%), resulting from a 45% drop in the real price of fuel and a 30% increase in the on-road fleet fuel economy (MPG). - In the 1990's and 2000's, VMT is forecasted to grow but at greatly reduced rates (17% and 20%, respectively) as population growth slows down (20% and 15%), personal income shows no growth in the 1990's and only slow growth in the 2000's. Fuel cost per mile gradually rises with increasing fuel prices and nearly constant fleet fuel efficiency. Estimates of total system and state highway system vehicle miles of travel for the period 1965-2015 are shown in Figure S3. Estimates of gasoline, diesel and total fuel consumption for the years 1965- 2015 are shown in Figure S4. 2 Click HERE for graphic. 3 Click HERE for graphic. 4 Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. 5 II. INTRODUCTION Estimates and forecasts of statewide vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and vehicle fuel consumption (VFC) are utilized by the California Department of Transportation for a number of planning and reporting purposes. For example, estimates of VMT are needed annually for the FHWA-mandated HPMS program and as input to the California Highway Patrol annual reporting system. Intermediate and long term forecasts of VMT and VFC are used for system planning, projections of revenues from excise taxes on fuels, and air quality and energy conservation programs. To insure that the forecasts are produced with appropriate, consistent and state-of-the art methodologies, the Office of Traffic Improvement has developed the California Motor Vehicle Stock, Travel, and Fuel Forecasting (MVSTAFF) process which it updates on a continuous basis. The results of applying the process are reported in the MVSTAFF Report which has been published annually since 1984, except for 1990. The forecasts are based on socioeconomic data developed by the Office of Traffic Improvement using the latest California Department of Finance population projections (Ref. 4 & 5) and economic projections from the WEFA Group (Ref. 7). These forecasts are primarily intended for use at the statewide level. However, the statewide total VMT forecasts have been allocated down to the county level in response to numerous requests for data at a substate level for planning and impact analysis. The remaining sections of the report follow the outline listed below: - An overview of the MVSTAFF process. - A brief description of the socioeconomic projections which drive the forecasting process. - A brief description of the forecast results. - An appendix which gives the statewide VMT forecasts distributed to the 58 counties by State Highways and all "Other" public roads. 6 III. MVSTAFF PROCESS OVERVIEW The MVSTAFF process is a recursive procedure which estimates, for each year of the forecast period, the following: - The motor vehicle stock (average number of vehicles-in- use) by six body types, two fuel types, and 25 year models or age groups. - The fuel economy (mpg) of the total fleet and each year- model fleet. - The vehicle miles of travel and fuel consumption for the total fleet and each year-model fleet. The process consists of four major parts which are outlined in Figure-1 and briefly described below. 1. Inventories - Base year estimates and future year projections of the socioeconomic variables which are assumed to be the causative factors for acquiring vehicles and generating travel; base year fuel consumption; and explicit assumpt- ions about new vehicle fuel economy. - The base year vehicle stock stratified by vehicle type and year model, and derived estimates of the on-road fuel economy of each strata of vehicles in the base year fleet. 2. The Stratified Rate Model - When applied to the base year inventory, this model estimates base year miles of travel, fuel consumption and fuel economy for each vehicle type and the total fleet. - When applied in the forecasting mode, the Stratified Rate Model first updates the composition and fuel economy of the fleet by one year and then estimates the next year's stratified fleet, miles of travel, fuel consumption and fuel economy. - Imbedded in the Stratified Rate Model are submodels which forecast the total number of vehicles by vehicle type, new vehicles, in-migration vehicles, and scrappage of old vehicles; and the fuel economy of new vehicles under explicit socioeconomic/policy assumptions. 3. The Statewide Aggregate VMT and VFC Model - This model accepts the vehicle fleet fuel efficiency from the Stratified Rate Model and socioeconomic data from the inventory. 7 It estimates next year's statewide total VMT and VFC without regard to vehicle body type. Because the Aggregate Model is more directly linked to socioeconomic variables, the VMT forecasts from the model are used as control totals for the forecast years. 4. A Comparison/Adjustment Model - This model compares and adjusts the total VMT and VFC from the Stratified Rate Model to match that from the Aggregate Model. As part of the comparison/adjustment process, statewide total diesel fuel is forecasted with a Diesel Consumption Model, and gasoline fuel is computed as the difference between total fuel and diesel fuel. Following the comparison/adjustment step, future year VMT, VFC, and vehicle fuel efficiency (VFE) for each vehicle type are then calculated. The above sequence produces the "next year" forecast. The process is then recursively applied to produce forecasts for each succeeding year in the forecast period. Statewide VMT from the above process is distributed to the 58 counties and two major road systems (state highways and all other public roads) as follows: For the base year, county VMT on state highways is obtained directly from the Division of Traffic Operations' annual Traffic Accident Surveillance and Analysis System (TASAS) file. County VMT on all other public roads, except that on the local road functional class, is estimated from the annual Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) file. Local road VMT cannot be obtained from either TASAS or HPMS. Therefore, statewide local road VMT is calculated as the difference: statewide total VMT (MVSTAFF) minus state highway VMT (TASAS) and other road VMT (HPMS). Statewide local road VMT is then allocated to each county on the basis of the relative distribution of the quantity, "county automobile registrations times the proportion of local road mileage to the total system mileage". For future years, the statewide VMT from MVSTAFF is distributed by applying county-specific, annualized growth rates to the base year county estimates described above. The county-specific growth rates are calculated from runs of the Statewide Traffic Model for two points in time, i.e. a calibrated base year and a forecast year. The annualized rates are normalized so that the sum of counties VMT equals the MVSTAFF statewide VMT. The statewide Traffic Model follows the standard three-step process of trip generation (approximately 1500 zones), trip distribution and network assignment. County-specific growth rates for the forecast were calculated from the recently completed 1987 update and year 2010 runs of the model (Ref. 8). These runs used the regional agencies' transportation model socioeconomic inputs where they were available, and Department of Finance projections, otherwise. 8 Click HERE for graphic. 9 IV FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS As discussed in the previous section and shown in Figure-1, the MVSTAFF process requires base year estimates and future year projections of a number of socioeconomic variables; and explicit assumptions regarding the fuel economy of the vehicle fleet, by vehicle type. The assumptions made regarding the key variables which drive the forecasting process are briefly described below. A. SOCIOECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS Base year (1992) estimates of population and the economic variables were obtained from the California Department of Finance (DOF), the state's official source of such information. Future year population was also obtained from DOF. The office of Traffic Improvement developed projections of the economic variables based on the information in the WEFA GROUP, "U.S. Long-Term Economic Outlook, 3rd Quarter 199311 (Ref. 7). The WEFA GROUP projections represent a "trend/moderate growth" scenario. The MVSTAFF forecasts, therefore, reflect the same scenario imposed on the DOF population projections and the existing legislation regarding current and future taxes on fuel. The resulting projections which were used in the forecast are shown graphically and in tabular form in Figures 2 to 7. A brief discussion of each variable is given below. 1. Population Population projections used for the years 1993-2015 were the latest data available from DOF (Ref. 4 & 5). These projections are shown in Figure-2. As can be seen, the state's population is projected to continue to increase, but at a declining rate. The rate falls from a 2.1 percent in 1995 to 1.5 percent in 2015. 2. Inflation Assumptions: The U.S. Consumer Price Index Projections of total personal income and motor vehicle fuel prices are normally made on a current dollar basis. Because the MVSTAFF process operates on a constant dollar basis, these need to be adjusted for inflation by dividing them by projections of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (U.S. CPI). The projections of the U.S. CPI to 2015 are shown in Figure-3. It can be seen from Figure-3 that the CPI is projected to increase at about 3.8 percent per year throughout the forecast period. 10 3. Total Personal Income Per Person Statewide total personal income per person (IPP) is an important variable in a number of forecasting models used in the MVSTAFF process. For example, it is a maj or determinant of new car sales, vehicle ownership and annual miles of travel per person The 1992 base year income per person was from the California@ Department of Finance, and the annual percentage growth rates for the future years, except for 1993, were derived from the WEFA personal income and population estimates for the United States (Ref. 7). The 1993 personal income was from the California Commission on State Finance (Ref. 3). The forecast of statewide total personal income (TPI), in 1967 dollars, is shown in Figure-4, and the forecast of total personal income per person in Figure-5. As can be seen, total personal income, and total personal income per capita are expected to increase 0.4 percent and decrease 1.5 percent, respectively, in 1993. Total personal income per person is projected to increase 0.9 percent and 1.3 percent in 1994 and 1995 and then continue to increase, but at declining rates, throughout the forecast period. 4. Fuel Price Fuel price per gallon is one of the most important variables in projecting future vehicle miles of travel and fuel consumption. This is because: (a) it directly and significantly determines the amount of vehicular travel, as shown in the development of the Statewide Aggregate VMT and VFC Model (Ref. 1); (b) over the past 10 - 15 years it has had the greatest variability of any of the socioeconomic variables used to forecast VMT and VFC; and (c) it influences the fuel economy (mpg) of the new vehicle fleet which directly impacts fuel consumption. The fuel price variable used in the forecasting process is the price of gasoline, averaged over all grades, and full service and self service sales. The price includes all excise taxes but not sales taxes. Projected gasoline prices in constant 1967 dollars are given in Figure-6. They were estimated using the WEFA long term gasoline price forecast. Figure-6 shows the projected fuel prices in constant (1967) dollars. Fuel price is expected to decrease 0.3 percent in 1993. After 1993, fuel prices are expected to increase. The sharpest increase is in 1994 (7.1%). The annual rate of increase for the total forecast period is about 1.3 percent. 11 5. Prime Lending Rate The prime lending rate is one of the variables used to estimate new vehicle sales, which is needed to annually update the vehicle fleet. The prime commercial bank rates for this years forecast are given in Figure-7. As can be seen, the rate decreases from 6.25 percent in 1992 to 6.00 percent in 1993, and then gradually increase to about 8.7 percent in 2001 and then drop off slowly for the rest of the forecast period. 12 Click HERE for graphic. 13 Click HERE for graphic. 14 Click HERE for graphic. 15 Click HERE for graphic. 16 Click HERE for graphic. 17 Click HERE for graphic. 18 B. NEW VEHICLE FUEL ECONOMY The MVSTAFF process requires explicit assumptions of the fuel economy of new vehicles entering the fleet each year. The recent update of the MPG model using the 1992 R. L. Polk Vehicle Population Profile for California, and the EPA Gas Mileage Guides showed that the 1992 light duty vehicle fleets (autos and trucks of gross vehicle weight less than 10,000 pounds) meet or slightly exceed the national Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. Because of the fact that the CAFE standard has not been changed, it was assumed the new light duty fleets would continue have the same fuel economy into the future. For the new medium duty truck fleet it was assumed that the fuel economy would remain constant. The assumption is based an recent data which show that the average weight of trucks in this weight class (10,001 - 33,000 lbs) is increasing; and the reasoning that the average weight increases will, more-or-less, offset the expected improvements in engine, transmission, and other energy efficiency efforts. The MPG figures for gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles were recently updated using the 1987 Truck Inventory and Use Survey (TIUS) Report (Ref. 6). For the heavy-duty truck fleets (gross vehicle weight greater than 33,000 lbs) it was reasoned that the manufacturers and buys are aware of the significance of the fuel operating cost to the trucking industry and that the long-term outlook is for higher fuel prices. Hence, there will be a continuous need and effort to improve truck fuel economy so that in the long run, fuel operating costs per mile will not increase beyond current levels. Using the mpg values from the 1977, 1982 and 1987 TIUS reports an average annual fleet mpg improvement was calculated. This rate of improvement was assumed to continue in the future. Fuel economy of motorcycles was assumed to be a constant on-road value of 50 mpg. 19 Click HERE for graphic. 20 V. FORECAST RESULTS A. Motor vehicle Stock The average number of motor vehicles forecasted to be in use in each calendar year is given in Figure-8. Values in the figure represent all vehicle body types (autos, trucks and motorcycles) and fuel types (gasoline and diesel). Vehicles-in-use are expected :to decrease by 0.57% in 1993 because of the recession. The long term forecast is for vehicles to continue to increase, but at declining rates, as population growth slows down and vehicle ownership reaches saturation levels. Total vehicles were stratified into body type, fuel type, and year model categories with the vehicle stock update model. Table-1 gives the forecasted number of vehicles in each body type and fuel type category for the years 1992 to 2005, 2010 and 2015. Figure-9 graphically shows the estimates of gasoline plus diesel vehicles-in-use, by body type, for the years 1992 to 2015. The plots correspond to the data given in the upper part of Table-1. Although motorcycles are not shown as a separate entry in the figure, they are included in the "Total" graph. 21 Click HERE for graphic. 22 Click HERE for graphic. 23 Click HERE for graphic. 24 B. Vehicle Miles of Travel Statewide total vehicle miles of travel projected by the forecast are given in Figure-10. The values in the figure represent travel by all vehicle body types and fuel types on all public roads. The 1992 VMT estimate of 258.907 billion vehicle miles of travel (VMT) is based on the 1992 on-road fuel consumption estimate from the Caltrans Division of Budgets, using the Board of Equalization's sales data, and the 1992 on-road vehicle fleet fuel economy from the MVSTAFF Stratified Rate Model. This 1992 VMT estimate is about the same as the 1990 VMT estimate. In 1993 statewide VMT is expected to increase by 1.3%. In comparison, data from the Division of Traffic Operations, traffic monitoring stations indicate a 1.0%. increase in VMT on the state highway system for the first eight months of 1993. In, 1994, VMT is expected to show a moderate gain of 1.0% as the economy improves. The long term forecast is for VMT to continue to grow, but at significantly lower rates than it has in the past. The slow down is predicated on lower statewide population and economic growth, and on a gradual increase in the fuel cost per mile of travel as the real price of fuel increases faster than vehicle fuel efficiency. For air quality conformity analysis purposes the annual VMT in 5-year increment from 1990 were listed in Table 1.1. Forecasts of statewide total VMT stratified by six body types and two fuel types are given in Table-2. Graphs of VMT by body type are given in Figure-11. The graphs correspond to the data in the upper part of Table-2. Although VMT by motorcycles is not shown as a separate entry in the figure, it is included in the "Total VMT" graph. Table:l.l Total Statewide VMT And Five-year Percent Change Year VMT %-CH 1990 259.003 1995 271.845 4.958 2000 310.707 14.296 2005 346.044 11.373 2010 381.707 10.306 2015 420.180 10.079 VMT in Billion Miles 25 Click HERE for graphic. 26 Click HERE for graphic. 27 Click HERE for graphic. 28 C. Vehicle Fuel Consumption Statewide total on-road fuel consumption projected by the forecast is given in Figure-12. The values represent total gasoline and diesel fuel used on all public roads. The base year (1992) values are estimates made by the Division of Budgets (DOB) using Board of Equalization data. Forecasts beyond 1992 use the MVSTAFF process with the 1992 estimate as a base. As can be seen from Figure-12, on-road fuel consumption is expected to drop 0.2% in 1993 as a result of the small increase in travel and a small increase in fleet fuel efficiency. The long term forecast is for fuel consumption to continue to grow because of population growth and very little improvement in vehicle fleet fuel economy. Annual fuel consumption by vehicle type and fuel type for each year of the forecast is given in Table-3. Total fuel consumption is expected to increase for autos and all types of trucks. Diesel fuel consumptions for autos and light trucks and the gasoline fuel consumption for heavy-duty trucks are decreasing because the numbers of these vehicles-in-use are projected to decrease. Figure-13 graphs the annual total fuel consumption of the vehicle fleet by body type for years 1992 to 2015. The graphs correspond to the data given in the upper part of Table-3. Although motorcycle fuel consumption is not shown as a separate entry in the figure, it is included in the "Total" graph. 29 Click HERE for graphic. 30 Click HERE for graphic. 31 Click HERE for graphic. 32 D. Vehicle Fuel Economy Forecasts of the total fleet on-road fuel economy are given in Figure-14. The results are a direct output of the Stratified Rate Model which computes the harmonic average fuel economy by weighting the number of vehicles in each stratum by the annual miles of travel and fuel economy of that stratum. As can be seen from Figure-14, total fleet fuel economy is expected to improve continuously from 1992 to 2012. After 2012, the total fleet economy begins to decline. This is the result of the assumption that the new car fleet fuel economy will remain at 27.5 miles per gallon, and the continued increase in the proportion of travel by heavy trucks. Fuel economies of the fleet, stratified by body type and fuel type for each year of the forecast, are given in Table-4. MPG is projected to continuously improve for all strata of vehicles. The greatest improvements are being projected for the automobile fleet. Fuel economy of year 2015 automobile fleet will be 12.0 percent better than it was in 1992; while the total vehicle fleet MPG will be 7.3 percent better than it was in 1992. Figure-15 graphs the fuel economy of the vehicle fleet stratified by bodytype for the years 1992 to 2015. The graphs correspond to the data given in the upper part of Table-4. Although the fuel economy of motorcycles (assumed to be a constant value of 50. 0 mpg) is not shown in the figure, its effect is included in the "Total" graph. 33 Click HERE for graphic. 34 Click HERE for graphic. 35 REFERENCES 1. Lynch, R; Lee, L., "A Statewide Aggregate Model for Forecasting Vehicle Miles of Travel and Fuel Consumption", California Department of Transportation, Division of Transportation Planning, July 1979. 2. R.L. Polk, "Annual National Vehicle Population Profile, California", 1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1992. 3. Commission on State Finance, "Quarterly General Fund Forecast", June 1993 4. California Department of Finance, "Report 93 P-3, Projected Total Population of California Counties", May 1993. 5. Personal communication with DOF. 6. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Truck Inventory and Use Survey", 1977, 1982 and 1987. 7. The WEFA Group, "U.S. Long-Terra Economic Outlook", Volume 1, Third Quarter 1993. 8. Lynch, R; Jew, H., "California Statewide Traffic Model 1987 Base Year Update", California Department of Transportation, office of Traffic Improvement, November 1991. 9. UCLA,"The UCLA Business Forecast for the Nation and California", September 1993. 36 APPENDIX A Vehicle Body Type Definitions: The motor vehicle fleet is stratified into six classes by body type, one class of autos, four classes of trucks by gross vehicle weight and one class of motorcycles. These are defined as follows: AUTOS AUTOS include all passenger vehicles registered as regular autos and station wagons. TRK1 TRK1 includes all Truck Gross Vehicle Weight Class 1 trucks (GVW 0 - 6,000 lbs). TRK2 TRK2 includes all Truck Gross Vehicle Weight Class 2 trucks (GVW 6,001 to 10,000 lbs). TRK3 TRK3 includes trucks of Truck Gross Vehicle Weight Classes 3 (GVW 10,001 to 14,000 lbs), 4 (GVW 14,001 to 16,000 lbs), 5 (GVW 16,001 to 19,500 lbs), 6 (GVW 19,501 to 26,000 lbs), and 7 (GVW 26,001 to 33,000 lbs). TRK4 TRK4 includes all trucks of Truck Gross Vehicle Weight Classes 8 and above (GVW 33,000+ lbs). MC MC includes all registered motorcycles which excludes motor-bicycles and off-road motor-powered dirt bikes. 37 APPENDIX B CALIFORNIA VEHICLE MILES OF TRAVEL BY COUNTY AND ROAD SYSTEM 38 1990 ANNUAL STATEWIDE VMT DISTRIBUTION BY COUNTY (MILLIONS) COUNTY VMT-SHS VMT-OTHER VMT-TOTAL ALAMEDA 7152.000 4279.340 11431.340 ALPINE 41.000 7.262 48.262 AMADOR 223.000 61.620 284.620 BUTTE 540.000 915.457 1455.457 CAIAVERAS 215.000 89.559 304.559 COLUSA 347.000 102.236 449.236 CONTRA COSTA 3445.000 3246.368 6691.368 DEL NORTE 150.000 61.124 211.124 EL DORADO 757.000 474.890 1231.890 FRESNO 2066.000 3172.677 5238.677 GLENN 290.000 91.583 381.583 HUMBOLDT 661.000 408.296 1069.296 IMPERIAL 800.000 452.897 1252.897 INYO 382.000 65.501 447.501 KERN 3275.000 2022.720 5297.720 KINGS 489.000 417.384 906.384 LAKE 256.000 120.888 376.888 LASSEN 265.000 200.682 465.682 LOS ANGELES 34243.000 37622.040 71865.040 MADERA 655.000 281.274 936.274 MARIN 1409.000 1082.729 2491.729 MARIPOSA 105.000 103.366 208.366 MENDOCINO 619.000 346.644 965.644 MERCED 1289.000 470.881 1759.881 MODOC 83.000 60.075 143.075 MONO 276.000 24.399 300.399 MONTEREY 1710.000 1372.504 3082.504 NAPA 531.000 356.069 887.069 NEVADA 565.000 308.774 873.774 ORANGE 11304.000 11466.120 22770.120 PLACER 1295.000 702.972 1997.972 PLUMAS 160.000 99.828 259.828 RIVERSIDE 7170.000 4289.729 11459.730 SACRAMENTO 3771.000 5032.580 8803.580 SAN BENITO 255.000 93.997 348.997 SAN BERNARDINO 8593.000 4624.414 13217.410 SAN DIEGO 12088.000 9415.592 21503.590 SAN FRANCISCO 1441.000 2191.836 3632.836 SAN JOAQUIN 2415.000 1931.905 4346.905 SAN LUIS OBISPO 1482.000 698.928 2180.928 SAN MATEO 4212.000 2003.598 6215.598 SANTA BARBARA 1963.000 1055.183 3018.183 SANTA CLARA 5915.000 7116.808 13031.810 SANTA CRUZ 892.000 846.475 1738.475 SHASTA 973.000 614.108 1587.108 SIERRA 60.000 29.915 89.915 SISKIYOU 570.000 199.754 769.754 SOLANO 2381.000 970.847 3351.847 SONOMA 1605.000 1425.999 3030.999 STANISIAUS 1268.000 1509.908 2777.908 SUTTER 320.000 275.183 595.183 TEHAMA 516.000 215.304 731.304 TRINITY 117.000 25.272 142.272 TULARE 1173.000 1300.106 2473.106 TUOLUMNE 291.000 190.485 481.485 VENTURA 2931.000 2464.488 5395.488 YOLO 979.000 533.314 1512.314 YUBA 230.000 250.136 480.136 TOTAL 139209.000 119794.000 259003.000 39 1992 ANNUAL STATEWIDE VMT DISTRIBUTION BY COUNTY (MILLIONS) COUNTY VMT-SHS VMT-OTHER VMT-TOTAL ALAMEDA 7053.000 4322.255 11375.255 ALPINE 40.000 7.60 47.609 ADOR 229.000 74.878 303.878 BUTTE 562.000 902.990 1464.990 CALAVERAS 228.000 99.499 327.499 COLUSA 383.000 102.065 485.065 CONTRA COSTA 3508.000 3140.902 6648.902 DEL NORTE 149.000 60.370 209.370 EL DORADO 767.000 589.871 1356.871 FRESNO 2182.000 3429.838 5611.838 GLENN 309.000 105.647 414.647 HUMBOLDT 669.000 403.244 1072.244 IMPERIAL 872.000 449.091 1321.091 INYO 365.000 64.364 429.364 KERN 3574.000 2056.979 5630.979 KINGS 496.000 412.690 908.690 LAKE 277.000 135.911 412.911 LASSEN 300.000 231.743 531.743 LOS ANGELES 34344.000 35312.863 69656.859 MADERA 725.000 307.902 1032.902 MARIN 1416.000 1021.475 2437.475 MARISPOSA 114.000 106.360 220.360 MENDOCINO 608.000 354.010 962.010 MERCED 1322.000 651.734 1973.734 MODOC 83.000 64.309 147.309 MONO 255.000 23.401 278.401 MONTEREY 1790.000 1319.767 3109.767 NAPA 543.000 340.104 883.104 NEVADA 595.000 313.525 908.525 ORANGE 10970.000 10735.843 21705.844 PLACER 1392.000 848.366 2240.366 PLUMAS 174.000 99.711 273.711 RIVERSIDE 7203.000 4190.737 11393.736 SACRAMENTO 4371.000 4604.010 8975.010 SAN BENITO 269.000 100.692 369.692 SAN BERNARDINO 8950.000 5339.014 14289.014 SAN DIEGO 12121.000 9324.663 21445.664 SAN FRANCISCO 1428.000 2045.318 3473.318 SAN JOAQUIN 2538.000 1892.978 4430.978 SAN LUIS OBISPO 1627.000 706.325 2333.325 SAN MATEO 4216.000 1912.594 6128.594 SANTA BARBARA 1965.000 1037.935 3002.935 SAN CLARA 6089.000 6894.998 12983.998 SAN CRUZ 942.000 817.659 1759.659 SHASTA 1014.000 662.942 1676.942 SIERRA 58.000 27.193 85.193 SISKIYOU 595.000 198.802 793.802 SOLONO 2434.000 983.255 3417.255 SONOMA 1712.000 1396.703 3108.703 STANISLAUS 1277.000 1861.764 3138.764 SUTTER 339.000 271.824 610.824 TEHAMA 523.000 220.765 743.765 TRINITY 113.000 26.334 139.334 TULARE 1230.000 1337.809 2567.809 TUOLUMNE 280.000 198.475 478.475 VENTURA 2840.000 2262.572 5102.572 YOL0 1O1018.000 531.903 1549.903 YUBA 240.000 284.391 524.391 TOTAL 141686.000 117221.000 258907.000 40 1995 ANNUAL STATEWIDE VMT DISTRIBUTION BY COUNTY (MILLIONS) COUNTY VMT-SHS VMT-OTHER VMT-TOTAL ALAMEDA 7341.741 4510.325 11852.066 ALPINE 42.986 8.197 51.184 AMADOR 245.145 80.355 325.500 BUTTE 591.468 952.687 1544.155 CAIAVERAS 244.843 107.114 351.957 COLUSA 404.621 108.093 512.714 CONTRA COSTA 3670.987 3294.959 6965.946 DEL NORTE 157.112 63.814 220.926 EL DORADO 839.217 647.006 1486.222 FRESNO 2308.941 3638.34 65947.287 GLENN 324.156 111.103 435.259 HUMBOLDT 693.320 418.936 1112.256 IMPERIAL 919.694 474.825 1394.519 INYO 384.072 67.895 451.966 KERN 3769.013 2174.580 5943.593 KINGS 522.483 435.800 958.283 LAKE 300.294 147.704 447.998 LASSEN 314.371 243.445 557.816 LOS ANGELES 35363.797 36451.320 71815.117 MADERA 770.392 327.988 1098.380 MARIN 1472.075 1064.552 2536.627 MARISPOSA 121.669 113.796 235.465 MENDOCINO 641.115 374.214 1015.330 MERCED 1407.081 695.393 2102.474 MODOC 86.805 67.423 154.228 MONO 273.605 25.170 298.776 MONTEREY 1868.621 1381.140 3249.761 NAPA 576.017 361.676 937.693 NEVADA 640.453 338.310 978.763 ORANGE 1487.714 11270.300 22758.014 PLACER 1499.306 916.023 2415.329 PLUMAS 181.759 104.415 286.173 RIVERSIDE 7859.358 4583.914 12443.271 SACRAMENTO 4674.210 4935.555 9609.766 SAN BENITO 287.156 107.754 394.910 SAN BERNARDINO 9600.470 5741.203 5341.672 SAN DIEGO 12763.344 9843.091 22606.434 SAN FRANCISCO 1476.310 2119.740 3596.050 SAN JOAQUIN 2740.854 2049.332 4790.186 SAN LUIS OBISP 1751.348 762.187 2513.535 SAN MATEO 4328.293 1968.390 6296.684 SANTA BARBARA 2037.122 1078.691 3115.813 SAN CLARA6 304.924 7157.154 13462.078 SAN CRUZ 990.975 862.296 1853.271 SHASTA 1104.242 723.726 1827.967 SIERRA 61.333 28.827 90.160 SISKIYOU 625.361 209.463 834.824 SOLONO 2593.713 1050.364 3644.078 SONOMA 1814.536 1484.014 3298.550 STANISLAUS 1351.936 1975.887 3327.823 SUTTER 355.678 285.902 641.580 TERAMA 555.434 235.035 790.469 TRINITY 119.114 27.827 146.941 TULARE 1298.587 1415.899 2714.486 TUOLUMNE 297.776 211.597 509.373 VENTURA 2987.754 2386.169 5373.923 YOLO 1071.289 561.130 1632.419 YUBA 249.993 296.965 546.959 TOTAL 148766.000 123079.000 271845.000 41 2000 ANNUAL STATEWIDE VMT DISTRIBUTION BY COUNTY (MILLIONS) COUNTY VMT-SHS VMT-OTHER VMT-TOTAL ALAMEDA 8265.619 5099.150 13364.770 ALPINE 51.037 9.773 60.810 AMADOR 289.181 95.186 384.367 BUTTE 678.199 1096.958 1775.157 CALAVERAS 290.343 127.550 417.894 COLUSA 466.908 125.255 592.163 CONTRA COSTA 4169.552 3758.116 7927.668 DEL NORTE 180.724 73.712 254.436 EL DORADO 1026.690 794.854 1821.544 FRESNO 2671.637 4227.486 6899.123 GLENN 369.699 127.243 496.941 HUMBOLDT 774.843 470.156 1244.999 IMPERIAL 1058.334 548.689 1607.024 INYO 440.264 78.154 518.417 KERN 4336.279 2512.341 6848.620 KINGS 600.010 502.558 1102.568 LAKE 361.764 178.684 540.448 LASSEN 357.888 278.303 636.191 LOS ANGELES 39099.695 40470.758 79570.453 MADERA 897.641 383.763 1281.403 MARIN1 653.771 1200.952 2854.723 MARISPOSA 142.805 134.123 276.928 MENDOCINO 737.493 432.271 1169.764 MERCED 1643.990 815.876 2459.866 MODOC 98.496 76.824 175.320 MONO 323.991 29.930 353.922 MONTEREY 2113.827 1568.915 3682.742 NAPA 669.262 421.982 1091.244 NEVADA 762.439 404.433 1166.872 ORANGE 13063.104 12869.504 25932.607 PLACER 1786.801 1096.241 2883.042 PLUMAS 205.829 118.737 324.566 RIVERSIDE 9570.713 5605.408 15176.121 SACRAMENTO 5504.125 5836.193 11340.318 SAN BENITO 337.154 127.045 464.199 SAN BERNARDINO 11363.427 6823.911 18187.338 SAN DIEGO 14647.905 11343.737 25991.643 SAN FRANCISCO 1643.214 2369.260 4012.474 SAN JOAQUIN 3280.784 2463.301 5744.086 SAN LUIS OBISPO 2085.042 911.208 2996.250 SAN MATEO 4761.873 2174.633 6936.505 SANTA BARBARA 2277.941 1211.256 3489.197 SAN CLARA 7036.188 8020.686 15056.873 SAN CRUZ 1135.490 992.180 2127.671 SHASTA 1340.320 882.129 2222.449 SIERRA 70.889 33.458 104.347 SISKIYOU 715.465 240.646 956.110 SOLONO 3036.398 1234.782 4271.180 SONOMA2 105.246 1728.976 3834.223 STANISLAUS 1565.546 2297.658 3863.203 SUTTER 405.744 327.512 733.256 TEHAMA 646.574 274.747 921.320 TRINITY 136.942 32.126 169.069 TULARE 1496.862 1638.917 3135.779 TUOLUMNE 347.438 247.920 595.357 VENTURA 3423.655 2745.744 6169.399 YOLO 1228.208 646.015 1874.223 YUBA 281.768 336.111 617.879 TOTAL 170033.000 140674.000 310707.000 42 2005 ANNUAL STATEWIDE VMT DISTRIBUTION BY COUNTY (Millions) COUNTY VMT-SHS VMT-OTHER VMT-TOTAL ALAMEDA 9059.847 5612.971 14672.818 ALPINE 58.993 11.345 70.338 AMADOR 332.112 109.784 441.896 BUTTE 757.099 1229.801 1986.900 CALAVERAS 335.200 147.885 483.085 COLUSA 524.546 141.318 665.864 CONTRA COSTA 4610.681 4173.452 8784.133 DEL NORTE 202.392 82.902 285.293 EL DORADO 1222.853 950.761 2173.614 FRESNO 3009.616 4782.616 7792.232 GLENN 410.498 141.888 552.386 IMBOLDT 843.069 513.737 1356.806 IMPERIAL 1185.690 617.340 1803.030 INYO 491.340 87.593 578.933 KERN 4857.088 2826.095 7683.183 KINGS 670.831 564.275 1235.106 LAKE 424.301 210.467 634.767 LASSEN 396.661 309.771 706.432 LOS ANGELES 42087.863 43749.633 85837.500 MADERA 1018.268 437.192 1455.460 KARIN 1808.797 1319.137 3127.935 MARISPOSA 163.183 153.916 317.099 MENDOCINO 825.941 486.179 1312.120 MERCED 1870.030 932.015 2802.045 MODOC 108.808 85.230 194.038 MONO 373.517 34.653 408.170 MONTEREY 2328.019 1735.267 4063.286 NAPA 757.052 479.372 1236.425 NEVADA 883.675 470.742 1354.417 ORANGE 14461.995 14308.470 28770.465 PLACER 2073.152 1277.352 3350.505 PLUMAS 226.927 131.467 358.393 RIVERSIDE 11346.727 6673.952 18020.678 SACRAMENTO 6310.1196 719.368 13029.486 SAN BENITO 385.397 145.843 531.240 SAN BERNARDINO 13094.692 7897.122 20991.814 SAN DIEGO 16366.496 12728.754 29095.250 SAN FRANCISCO 1780.656 2578.386 4359.042 SAN JOAQUIN 3823.301 2882.889 6706.189 SAN LUIS OBISPO 2416.720 1060.666 3477.386 SAN MATEO 5100.444 2339.191 7439.636 SANTA BARBARA 2479.915 1324.281 3804.196 SAN CLARA 7644.763 8751.605 16396.369 SAN CRUZ 1266.698 1111.552 2378.251 SHASTA 1583.880 1046.876 2630.756 SIERRA 79.768 37.809 117.577 SISKIYOU 796.920 269.187 1066.107 SOLONO 3460.705 1413.337 4874.042 SONOMA 2377.986 1961.305 4339.291 STANISLAUS 1764.999 2601.439 4366.438 SUTTER 450.627 365.293 815.920 TEHAMA 732.778 312.706 1045.485 TRINITY 153.279 36.112 189.391 TULARE 1679.817 1847.083 3526.899 TUOLUMNE 394.669 282.824 677.494 VENTURA 3819.481 3076.266 6895.747 YOLO 1370.903 724.147 2095.050 YUBA 309.189 370.394 679.583 TOTAL 189371.000 156673.000 346044.000 43 2010 ANNUAL STATEWIDE VMT DISTRIBUTION BY COUNTY (MILLIONS) COUNTY VMT-SHS VMT-OTHER VMT-TOTAL ALAMEDA 9826.497 6114.383 15940.880 ALPINE 67.477 13.033 80.510 AMADOR 377.427 125.305 502.732 BUTTE 836.335 1364.408 2200.743 CALAVERAS 382.939 169.680 552.619 COLUSA 583.134 157.784 740.919 CONTRA COSTA 5045.140 4586.542 9631.683 DEL NORTE 224.286 92.269 316.554 EL DORADO 1441.256 1125.435 2566.691 FRESNO 3354.882 5354.433 8709.315 GLENN 451.031 156.575 607.606 HUMBOLDT 907.706 555.526 1463.232 IMPERIAL 1314.474 687.365 2001.839 INYO 542.606 97.152 639.758 KERN 5383.528 3146.008 8529.536 KINGS 742.164 626.989 1369.153 LAKE 492.441 245.328 737.768 LASSEN 435.036 341.215 776.250 LOS ANGELES 44830.426 46802.848 91633.273 MADERA 1143.021 492.886 1635.907 MARIN 1957.659 1433.900 3391.558 MARISPOSA 184.518 174.795 359.312 MENDOCINO 915.319 541.130 1456.450 MERCED 2104.895 1053.626 3158.521 MODOC 118.943 93.573 212.515 MONO 426.109 39.704 465.813 MONTEREY 2537.092 1899.318 4436.410 NAPA 847.399 538.911 1386.310 NEVADA 1013.473 542.232 1555.705 ORANGE 15843.183 15743.067 31586.250 PLACER 2380.229 1472.923 3853.152 PLUMAS 247.570 144.049 391.619 RIVERSIDE 13311.571 7863.642 21175.213 SACRAMENTO 7158.452 7655.824 14814.276 SAN BENITO 435.933 165.684 601.617 SAN BERNARDINO 14931.851 9044.179 23976.029 SAN DIEGO 18095.402 14134.497 32229.900 SAN FRANCISCO 1909.405 2776.822 4686.227 SAN JOAQUIN 4408.914 3338.896 7747.811 SAN LUIS OBISPO 2771.853 1221.813 3993.666 SAN MATEO 5405.933 2490.063 7895.996 SANTA BARBARA 2671.5521 432.810 4104.362 SAN CLARA 8219.078 9449.932 17669.010 SAN CRUZ 1398.284 1232.350 2630.634 SHASTA 1852.116 1229.485 3081.601 SIERRA 88.821 42.283 131.103 SISKIYOU 878.362 297.985 1176.348 SOLONO 3903.038 1600.906 5503.943 SONOMA 2657.958 2201.739 4859.697 STANISLAUS 1969.045 2914.787 4883.832 SUTTER 495.239 403.200 898.439 TEHAMA 821.788 352.213 1174.001 TRINITY 169.769 40.171 269.940 TULARE 1865.410 2060.064 3925.474 TUOLUMNE 443.631 319.292 762.923 VENTURA 4216.490 3410.771 7627.260 YOLO 1514.167 803.296 2317.463 YUBA 335.729 403.935 739.664 TOTAL 208888.000 172819.000 381707.000 44 2015 ANNUAL STATEWIDE VMT DISTRIBUTION BY COUNTY (Millions) COUNTY VMT-SHS VMT-OTHER VMT-TOTAL ALAMEDA 10626.446 6641.428 17267.875 ALPINE 76.952 14.929 91.881 AMADOR 427.654 142.609 570.263 BUTTE 921.127 1509.395 2430.521 CALAVERAS 436.180 194.127 630.307 COLUSA 646.346 175.663 822.008 CONTRA COSTA 5504.181 5026.023 10530.204 DEL NORTE 247.811 102.398 350.210 EL DORADO 1693.634 1328.368 3022.002 FRESNO 3728.677 5977.376 9706.054 GLENN 494.098 172.285 666.383 HUMBOLDT 974.402 598.987 1573.389 IMPERIAL 1452.929 763.131 2216.060 INYO 597.445 107.445 704.890 KERN 5949.351 3492.061 9441.411 KINGS 818.651 694.669 1513.320 LAKE 569.831 285.140 854.971 LASSEN 475.709 374.769 850.478 LOS ANGELES 47610.227 49925.133 97535.359 MADERA 1279.258 554.076 1833.334 MARIN 2112.493 1554.164 3666.657 MARISPOSA 208.024 197.935 405.959 MENDOCINO 1011.364 600.560 1611.924 MERCED 2362.238 1187.680 3549.917 MODOC 129.636 102.437 232.073 MONO 484.666 45.360 530.026 MONTEREY 2756.749 2072.900 4829.648 NAPA 945.717 604.102 1549.819 NEVADA 1158.893 622.7811 781.674 ORANGE 17304.861 17271.680 34576.543 PLACER 2724.693 1693.552 4418.246 PLUMAS 269.291 157.381 426.672 RIVERSIDE 15570.389 9238.754 24809.143 SACRAMENTO 8096.778 8697.703 16794.480 SAN BENITO 491.636 187.682 679.318 SAN BERNARDINO 16976.316 10328.053 27304.369 SAN DIEGO 19947.676 15650.346 35598.020 SAN FRANCISCO 2041.397 2981.928 5023.325 SAN JOAQUIN 5069.163 3855.912 8925.075 SAN LUIS OBISPO 3169.754 1403.394 4573.147 SAN MATEO 5712.744 2643.041 8355.785 SANTA BARBARA 2869.472 1545.776 4415.248 SAN CLARA 8810.358 10174.633 18984.990 SAN CRUZ 1538.966 1362.346 2901.312 SHASTA 2159.364 1439.794 3599.157 SIERRA 98.607 47.149 145.757 SISKIYOU 965.260 328.916 1294.176 SOLONO 4388.867 1808.152 6197.020 SONOMA 2962.092 2464.539 5426.630 STANISLAUS 2190.172 3256.484 5446.656 SUTTER 542.655 443.761 986.416 TEHAMA 918.879 395.570 1314.449 TRINITY 187.476 44.558 232.034 TULARE 2065.371 2290.995 4356.366 TUOLUMNE 497.190 359.424 856.614 VENTURA 4640.975 3770.771 8411.746 YOLO 1667.448 888.533 2555.981 YUBA 363.467 439.245 802.712 TOTAL 229942.000 190238.000 420180.000 45
