FXUS65 KCYS 141943
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
145 PM MDT MON APR 14 2003

BRIEF DCRS IN HIGH CLDS ATTM TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCRS REST OF 
AFTN/EVNG AS MSTR STREAMS NEWD ALG/SE OF HI LVL UPR JET.   MODELS 
SUGGEST THERE SHLD BE A BRF BRK LT TNGT INTO EARLY TUE MRNG...KINDA 
LIKE CLD MIN ATTM OVER WRN UT/NW AZ.  CLDS INCRSG AGAIN LTR TUE MRNG 
AS DYNAMIC LIFT FROM APPRCHG EJECTG UPR SYSTEM MOVES OVER AREA.  ALL 
MODELS CONT TO POINT TO A LARGE SCALE DVLPMENT OF SHWRS AND FEW 
TSTMS TUE AFTN DUE TO GOOD DIFLUENCE AND MDT PVA...AND SFC CONVRGNC 
WITH DVLPG SFC LOW OVER CO/NE/KS JUNCTION.  EXPECT PCPN TO FIRST 
DVLP FAR SRN WY EARLY AFTN AND THEN SPRD NEWD.  LKLY POPS STILL LOOK 
GOOD AS MOST AREAS SHOULD AT LEAST HAVE A SHOWER.  MAX TMPS TUE 
STILL SOMEWHAT TRICKY...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH AN ETA/AVN COMPROMISE 
FOR NOW...LEANING A BIT TWDS THE WRMR ETA GNDNC. 

PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER 
LOW SWINGS THROUGH COLORADO.  1000-500 MB THICKNESS SUGGESTS PRECIP 
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO IN SOUTHEAST 
WY...WITH A GRADUALLY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE EARLY 
WEDNESDAY.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A PROBLEM...BUT 
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY 
MORNING. MESO ETA SHOWS 60 TO 65 KTS AT 700 MB...WITH 40 KT BOUNDARY 
LAYER WINDS OVER THE WY PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.  THE 
GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE MOVING AWAY BY THE TIME 
WINDS BECOME A PROBLEM.  WITH THIS MAINLY OCCURRING IN THE FOURTH 
PERIOD...AM NOT INCLINED TO GO INTO A HIGH WIND WATCH ON THIS 
SHIFT.  AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE 
NEXT SYSTEM WILL START TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH SNOW AT THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY 
EVENING. 

.CYS...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.