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000
fxus62 kgsp 150145
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville - spartanburg sc
945 pm edt sat mar 14 2009
. synopsis...
cool high pressure will continue to extend across our area through
sunday. several disturbances coming out of the gulf of mexico will
move across the area though monday. dry high pressure will dominate
tuesday and wednesday. a cold front with limited moisture will move
through the region thursday.
&&
. near term /through sunday/...
precipitation on kffc radar has blossomed across ga this evening and
will move across the forecast area overnight as isentropic lift
continues and upper jet support arrives. will advertise pops at 100
percent for the overnight hours ... with precipitation amounts ranging
from 1/4 to 1/2 half inches in ne locations to between 3/4 and 1
inch in sw mtn spots. the rain will fall on sw mtn locations that
have already received nearly an inch of rain for the event so far.
these totals will lead to stage rises and ponding of water
overnight ... but with qpf generally below flood guidance into early
sunday. hydrology conditions will need to be closely
monitored ... however ... as additional moderate rainfall will be
possible sunday afternoon. will mention this in the hwo for now.
a few changes were made to temperatures across the high terrain on
sunday as se to srly flow will lead to better ridge top warming from
the sw despite the widespread rainfall. outside of the mtns ... a
small diurnal range on temps is still expected in the persistent
cad. shear will be quite impressive over the cad layer as a
southerly 850 mb jet arrives in the piedmont sun aftn ... but the deep
cad should provide plenty of stability to negate any convective
threat.
&&
. short term /sunday night through monday/...
as of 730 pm saturday ... wedge pattern holds across the region sunday
night as isentropic lift continues. however ... some mid level drying
is briefly evident. the next wave will then cross the region late
sunday night through monday. the threat of rain ends monday night as
the wave moves off the coast and high pressure builds in from the
west. temperatures will begin to moderate on monday.
&&
. long term /monday night through saturday/...
as of 3 pm saturday ... medium range models indicating dry weather and
mild temps tuesday and wednesday as high pressure dominates. next
front affects the area thursday. dry high pressure returns friday
and saturday. ensemble pops below normal tuesday and wednesday then
near normal thursday through saturday.
&&
. aviation /02z sunday through thursday/...
widespread rainfall continues to develop upstream this evening ahead
of low pressure forming along a front stalled across the deep south.
upper support will move into the region over the existing cold air
damming to enhance rainfall overnight. the next vigorous upper wave
will arrive sunday afternoon to produce the highest rainfall rates
through the period. ifr to lifr conditions can be expected
throughout ... with tempo vlifr possible at kavl sunday morning.
at kclt ... ifr to mvfr vsby ... with ifr cigs ... will be quite
persistent through the period. winds will remain out of the
northeast at 6 kt or less ... and heavier rain should arrive sunday
afternoon.
outlook ... mvfr/ifr ceiling and visibility restrictions can be
expected sunday night into monday ... with gradual drying monday night
into tuesday. dry high pressure will develop tue through wed ... with
a small chance of mvfr along an approaching cold front thu.
&&
. gsp watches/warnings/advisories...
ga ... none.
nc ... none.
sc ... none.
&&
$$
synopsis ... hg
near term ... hg
short term ... hg
long term ... hg
aviation ... hg