Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
000 FXUS63 KABR 161627 AAA AFDABR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1127 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2009 .UPDATE... INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY BY AS MUCH AS A CATEGORY OVER BARE GROUND AREAS. OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS...LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. STILL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW TO MELT OUT THERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS OKAY AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD START TO THE DAY AS CURRENT TEMPS STILL IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S. WILL LEAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING EVEN THOUGH NOTHING HAS SHOWN UP AS OF YET...AT LEAST WHATS VISIBLE WITH OBS AND WEB CAMS. WINDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES. TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS CURRENT WARM SPELL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW TICKS WARMER THAN SUNDAYS HIGHS. WILL NOT BE QUITE AS BREEZY ACROSS THE EAST AS IT WAS ON SUNDAY...BUT 10 MPH SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME MIXING GOING WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE TEMPS. STILL LOOKING AT WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA. EVEN BEHIND THE COOL FRONT...TEMPS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD. COULD POSSIBLY HAVE A FEW HYDRO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH OVER THE COMING DAYS WHICH ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BEHIND IT. THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST LIFTING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE EC WAS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. NONETHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM COULD BE SIGNIFICANT TO THE REGION COME SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BRING IN QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ALL MODELS SHOW SOME QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALREADY HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INCREASE THESE IN LATER FORECASTS ALONG WITH ADDING IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. MOST CLOUDS SHOULD BE ABOVE 10K FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBYS. && .HYDROLOGY... LOCAL HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DUE TO FLOODED COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP ROADS. ALSO...SOME FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ON AREA STREAMS OVER PORTIONS OF CORSON AND POTENTIALLY CAMPBELL COUNTY THIS WEEK AS WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MELT THE RESIDENT SNOW. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DORN SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...MOHR AVIATION...TDK HYDROLOGY...TDK WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
