AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 645 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON GRIDS... SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LK MICH THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH MID LVL S/WV LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH WRN GRTLKS REGION. SFC TROF/WK COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD VCNTY IL/IND BORDER...THEN INTO EAST CNTRL IL. THOUGH SPC RUC/LAPS SHOW SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG FOR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF CWA...ILX 18Z SOUNDING INDICATED ONLY AROUND 900 J/KG. CURRENT LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM ABOUT VALPARAISO SOUTHWEST TO WATSEKA EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST WITH SFC TROUGH BY THIS EVENING...WITH DRY WX FOR REMAINDER OF FCST AREA. EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO DROP 5 NW IND COUNTIES FROM WATCH 460 WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ATTN THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WK S/WV NEAR NEB PNHNDL...WHICH MODELS DEPICT MOVING ACROSS IA OVERNIGHT. ETA/GFS BOTH INDICATE WEAK H85 THETA-E ADVECTION WITH SW FLOW ACROSS IA BY 12Z MON...THOUGH BEST H85 MOIST CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR WEST ALONG IA/MO BORDER. GIVEN LACK OF STRONG LLVL THERMAL BOUNDARY...WILL LEAVE POPS OUT TONIGHT...AND OPT TO BRING IN CHANCE OF PCPN MONDAY AS S/WV AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS NRN IL/NW IND. WILL HANG ON TO CHC POPS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO MON EVE AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST...THEN DRY OUT ENTIRE FCST AREA MON NGT AS BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS FCST AREA. NRN IL/NW IND REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES TUESDAY...WITH N/NE FLOW OFF LAKE MAKING FOR COOLER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN PLAINS HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THIS SETS UP RETURN FLOW ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF WARM FRONT TO OUR WEST BY TUE AFTN. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS FAR WEST COUNTIES TUES AFTN...AND BETTER CHC TUE NIGHT AS SFC WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WI. THINKING IS THAT E/SE FLOW OFF LAKE WILL KEEP EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA TOO STABLE FOR CONVECTIVE PCPN. CHC POPS ENTIRE FCST AREA WED AS COLD FRONT TRAILING SFC WAVE MOVES THROUGH. DRY FCST FOR NOW THURS-SUNDAY AS UPPER PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS...AND CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. AMPLIFICATION OF WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA RESULTS IN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTED SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS REGION. MAIN THREAT OF PCPN THURS-SUN APPEARS ATTM TO BE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST/LAKES...AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE THRU THE OH VLY DURG THIS TIME. TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER IN 70S WITH ERLY COMPONENT AND LK BRZ INFLUENCES IN EXTENDED. RATZER && .AVIATION DISCUSSION REGARDING 00Z TAFS: SHORT WAVE TROF FROM WRN LWR MI SWWD TO FAR SRN IL WILL CONTINUE EWD TNGT. THIS FEATURE HELPED TRIGGER SQLN NOW WELL E OF TERMINALS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS AIDED IN ENHANCING SUBSIDENCE OVR RGN. THERFORE...AFTER SCT CU FIELD DSIPTS THIS EVENING...SKIES EXPECTED TO RMN GENLY CLR OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO RGN BHD LN OF TSTMS TO E SO EXPECT NO VIS RESTRICTIONS EITHER. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL TSTM CLUSTER TO DVLP...BUT THIS SHOULD STAY S OF TERMINALS LATE TNGT THROUGH MON MRNG SO WILL KEEP TAFS DRY THRU PERIOD. WITH THIS DVLPMT IN MIND...WILL BRING VFR CIGS INTO AREA LATE TNGT AND MON MRNG IN ASSN WITH ASSD ANVIL CANOPY. MERZLOCK && .LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE .IN...NONE .LK MI...NONE. $$ && IMPORTANT NOTICE...EFFECTIVE JUNE 15...THE AWIPS IDENTIFIER FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM CHIAFDCHI TO CHIAFDLOT. THE WMO HEADER FXUS63 KLOT WILL NOT CHANGE. il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1053 AM MDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .UPDATE...WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE FOR VARIOUS PARAMETERS INCLUDING CLOUDS...WINDS...DEWPOINT...AND TEMPERATURES. AT 17Z A STRONG WIND SHIFT LINE IS SETTING UP GENERALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 70. SOUTH OF THIS LINE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA. RUC PICKING UP ON THIS AND WILL RUN WITH IT FOR THE UPDATE. RUC AND ETA ALSO PICKING UP ON A POCKET OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON CURRENT ADVERTISED TEMPERATURES. SPEAKING OF WHICH...CURRENT HIGHS ON TRACK WITH PAST 5 DAYS OF ETA 850 TEMPERATURE PERFORMANCE AS WELL AS LAMP AND ETA MOS GUIDANCE. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS INTERESTING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTS THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...ALIGNING ITSELF WITH UPPER FLOW. COULD SEE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1007 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 JUST UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOWARD SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY...AND THE 00Z RUC AND ETA BOTH SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA BY 06Z. THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THEREFORE POPS WERE INCREASED TO AROUND 40 IN THE FAR SOUTH...AND KEPT IN THE 15 TO 20 RANGE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ DRS ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1015 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 ...MORNING UPDATE... LAPSE RATES NOT QUITE AS STEEP THIS MORNING OVER THE LMK FA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, ALSO ECHOED IN SFC LI FIELDS. THIS LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTION SAT AFT-EVE. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA MOVING ALONG OH RIVER ATTM. THINKING THAT ADDITIONAL TSRA WILL DEVELOP INTO AFTERNOON HOURS, ASSOC WITH RELATIVE MAX IN PW FIELDS SEEN IN RUC DATA COUPLED WITH SUBTLE SFC TROF IN THE VICINITY. HARD TO PIN DOWN POTENTIAL SVR THREAT; STUFF SEEMS DISORGANIZED NOW. FRZ LVLS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (13.3 KFT), SO WITHIN POCKETS OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY, PULSE TYPE SVR COULD YIELD SOME HAIL/WIND. YESTERDAYS SVR STORMS APPEARED ASSOC WITH RAPID INTERACTIONS BTWN CELLS AND SWD MVG OUTFLOW BDY FROM IND/ILL. BUT NONE OF THESE APPARENT IN THE FA ON VIS SATELLITE ATTM. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BDY MOVING SWD ACROSS WRN KY/ARKANSAS FROM OVERNIGHT MCS IN MO/KS. HVY RAIN AND AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING STILL SEEMS PROBABLE FROM STRONGER STORMS, AND FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER DUE TO YESTERDAY'S RAINS. XXV && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 408 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST ISSUE IS PCPN CHANCES THROUGH MON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. FIRST IS APPROACHING ERN UPPER MI/LWR MI WHILE SECOND IS OVER ERN MN. LARGE AREA OF SHRA AND SCT TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST WAVE HAS FORTUNATELY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITLY OVER FCST AREA THIS AFTN...PREVENTING SVR TSRA. CLEARING AND WARMING IN THE WAKE OF PCPN HAS RESULTED IN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF MN SHORTWAVE TO REFIRE SCT CONVECTION OVER NE MN/NW WI IN THE LAST HR OR TWO. SHRA HAVE JUST MOVED INTO GOGEBIC COUNTY IN THE LAST HALF HR. NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ERN MT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MON. ETA/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSION OF FEATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR DIFFERENCES SHOULDN'T REALLY IMPACT FCST. FOR TONIGHT...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FAR E EARLY THIS EVENING AS PCPN SHIELD PROBABLY WON'T BE OUT OF LUCE COUNTY BY 22Z. TO THE W...SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE W AND SW WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO FCST AREA WHILE LATE AFTN INSTABILITY LINGERS. HOWEVER...AS SHRA MOVE FARTHER E...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY SINCE THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED TIME FOR AIRMASS TO RECOVER. THESE SHRA SHOULD END WITHIN A FEW HRS OF SUNSET SINCE THEY ARE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. NEXT SHORTWAVE ROLLS INTO THE AREA MON AFTN. MODIFIED LATE MORNING ETA FCST SOUNDING FOR A SFC T/TD OF 71/51F YIELDS CAPE AROUND 700J/KG. INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SCT CONVECTION AGAIN...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT. W FLOW (10-15 KT AT 950MB) BEFORE ARRIVAL OF WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE AFTN WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE ERN PART OF FCST AREA AS LAKE BREEZES FROM SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN HEAD INLAND. CONVERGENCE MIGHT LEAD TO DWPTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN THAT AREA AS WELL TO INCREASE CAPE. WILL GO WITH HIGH CHC POPS FROM SRN LUCE TO NRN DELTA WHERE BEST CONVERGENCE SHOULD FOCUS IN THE AFTN. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER SE FCST AREA WILL END EARLY MON EVENING WITH SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HEADS E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON TUE AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY WED MORNING. ETA/GFS BOTH INDICATE SOME PCPN TUE AFTN...BUT SEEMS A BIT FAST WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HEIGHTS DURING THE DAY. HAVE LEFT TUE DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REVISIT PCPN CHC SINCE INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE DURING THE DAY. HAVE BROUGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA EARLY TUE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPROACH. GFS IS FASTEST IN MOVING FRONT THRU THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED TIMING OF ETA/CANADIAN/UKMET WITH FRONT EXITING THE ERN FCST WED MORNING. THU THRU SUN...GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF/UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SHIFT TOWARD AN AMPLIFIED UNJUNELIKE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR A FEW DAYS BY THE GFS. HEIGHTS ARE TO RISE ALONG THE W COAST OF NAMERICA AND OVER THE N ATLANTIC TOWARD GREENLAND WITH BROAD AND GENERALLY DEEPENING WINTERLIKE VORTEX CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY. IN GENERAL AND IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE GFS IS PROBABLY A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROF EXTENDING S INTO THE NRN CONUS. WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE ISSUES WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES IN THE STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL RUNS SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT TIMINGWISE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE REACHING THE AREA THU NIGHT/FRI. OVERALL...WITH WNW/NW FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED...CHANCES FOR PCPN WITH ANY SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF MEANINGFUL MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...WITH AGREEMENT ON THE FRI SHORTWAVE...WILL MAINTAIN GOING LOW CHC POPS WITH THAT SYSTEM. HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON NEXT SHORTWAVE GFS DROPS INTO THE AREA ON SUN EVEN THOUGH IT IS SHOWING DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. IN ANYCASE...GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG AND LIKELY TOO FAR S WITH IT. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE WITH FROPA AT SOME POINT SUN. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW CHC POPS GIVEN DRIER WNW FLOW BEING WELL ESTABLISHED. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING IN AN AREA OF STRONG 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 60+F OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING WEST FROM IT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. A LOW IS ALSO OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT RUNNING AHEAD OF IT THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA. THE WISCONSIN SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN U.P. BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...THE STRONGEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN U.P. MEANWHILE...THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MIGRATE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL RELOCATE OVER NORTHERN JAMES BAY WHILE THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MANEUVERS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL TRACK INTO THE DOOR PENINSULA OF WISCONSIN AND THEN TO Y62 BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MINNESOTA SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROCEED INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE WESTERN U.P. THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT AT 305K ISENTROPIC AND THE BOUNDARY LEVEL DEW POINTS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED IN THE EASTERN U.P. BY LATE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE U.P. AND BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE U.P. WILL BE UNDER THE EXIT REGION OF AN 80 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE JET MAX WILL SHIFT OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPING FAIRLY STRONG DIVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR EASTERN U.P. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 945 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .UPDATE... FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE ILM CWA THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS OVER THE LOW COUNTRY OF SC... AND OVER SOUTHWEST GA. ALSO NOTED A SMATTERING OF LIGHTER SHOWERS OVER THE MIDLANDS OF SC...DROPPING A QUICK TRACE ON KCAE IN THE LAST HOUR. DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS OVERNIGHT...NOR DO I SEE MUCH THAT WOULD MAKE IT RAIN IN MY CWA BEFORE 6 AM. NEITHER ETA NOR GFS HAVE THAT GOOD A HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTION OVER SC AND GA. RUC TRIES TO BRING A VERY WEAK VORT CENTER OUT OF GA...REACHING MY SC COUNTIES BY ABOUT 09Z...BUT NOT DOING A LOT IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. BEST FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA ANYWAY. WILL UPDATE ZFP TO REMOVE POPS FROM AT LEAST THE SC COASTAL COUNTIES. FOR INLAND SC WILL EITHER GO DRY OR HOLD A 20 POP FOR SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM THE WEST VERY LATE. TEMPS LOOK OK AS CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD READINGS UP. && .MARINE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NJ COAST WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED REST OF TONIGHT SO CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH HAS BEEN SHRINKING IN COVERAGE AND RETREATING AWAY FROM THE WATERS LAST FEW HOURS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT FACTORS FAVORING PRECIP THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN INLAND. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && RAS/CRM .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (247 PM EDT)... MAJOR HEADACHE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE N GULF OF MEXICO. NHC FAVORING ETA SOLUTION WITH LOW MOVING INLAND INTO CENTRAL LA THEN DRIFTING NW...BUT AT A LITTLE SLOWER PACE. GFS HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND FARTHER W...FURTHER ENHANCING ETAS CREDIBILITY. WILL KEEP FORECAST SIMILAR TO ETA WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED. PULLED BACK ON POPS MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE IN ANTICIPATION OF GULF SYSTEM MOVING AROUND THE PERIMETER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. LATEST ETA HAS 20 POPS AT BEST FOR TUE BUT ANTICIPATE DIURNAL PRECIP TO DEVELOP WITH WEAK DYNAMICS OVER THE REGION. TUE THROUGH WED POPS MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED ONCE GULF SYSTEM MAKES ITS INTENTIONS KNOWN. BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SE STATES WED NIGHT INTO THU AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE CWA BUT COME UP JUST SHORT. HOWEVER...WEAK TROF INLAND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTN AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA. KEEPING 30 POPS AFTN/EVENING EACH DAY. && .MARINE... AT THE BUOYS WINDS STILL NEARLY EAST BUT SWELL HEIGHTS HAVE DROPPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND DOMINATE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOW DOWN TO 4.5 FT. CURRENT MODEL SHOW WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO REESTABLISH OVER THE WATERS. MESO-ETA AND GFS WINDS VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT TRENDED TO THE GFS WIND DIRECTION AFTER THIS TIME. SREF ENSEMBLE WINDS SHOW PROBABILITY OF 20 KNOT WINDS OVER WATERS IS ALMOST NIL THROUGH THE FIRST 84 HOURS OF FORECAST. STAYED CLOSE TO WAVE WATCH ON SEA HEIGHTS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL DROP THE MENTION OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET WITH THIS PACKAGE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WILMINGTON 70 85 72 87 / 10 30 30 40 LUMBERTON 69 86 70 87 / 10 40 40 40 FLORENCE 69 86 70 88 / 30 40 40 40 MYRTLE BEACH 71 83 72 84 / 30 40 40 40 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC: TRL MARINE: HAWKINS nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1010 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .DISCUSSION... VIS IMAGERY SHOWING MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS SE NC WHILE NE MUCH OF SC IS OBSCURED BY CLOUDS. BEST LIFT REMAINS OVER ILM SC COUNTIES WITH A FEW SMALL SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ILM/CHS BORDER. WILL UPDATE ZFP TO REMOVE AFTN WORDING ONLY. NO OTHER CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED. && .MARINE... AT THE BUOYS EAST WINDS OF 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 4 TO 5 FT CONTINUE THIS MORNING. 41013 SHOWING A 3.5 FT SWELL WITH A 4.3 FT WIND WAVE PRODUCING A A CHOPPY 5.2 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEAST OF 15 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHES CURRENT FORECAST SO DO NOT EXPECT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE && $$ PUBLIC: TRL MARINE: HAWKINS nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 715 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED TO INCLUDE REST OF CWA IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463 UNTIL MIDNIGHT. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER 80S. A LINE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA MOVING EAST NORTHEAST WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA TRIES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA AS WELL. DTX SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IS POSSIBLY THE REASON ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WITH A MODERATE RISK JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO BORDER IN MICHIGAN. MORNING SOUNDING FROM DTX INDICATES A VEERING PROFILE ALONG WITH SPEED SHEAR AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. LATEST RUC INDICATES A -2 LI OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT COULD DROP EVEN FURTHER WITH THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS ARE WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOWER 70S IN THE EXTREME WEST. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY OVER INDIANA AS CAP IS STARTING TO BREAK. ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INDIANA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST OHIO. I DECIDED TO GO WITH LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE ACTIVITY HEADED TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUIET DOWN LATE THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND PVA MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SO I WILL DROP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GOING WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR HIGHS BUT WILL SHADE BACK A LITTLE BIT TO AT LEAST MIDDLE 80S IN THE WEST AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S EAST. VIGOROUS VORT MAX WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS MONDAY. WILL TAKE THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. CONCERN IS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IF IT DECIDES TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING...AT LEAST ONE DAY OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING ANOTHER SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY DIVE DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ONCE WEATHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY FOR MORE DRY WEATHER UNTIL YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN EXITING SLOWLY BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. SEE NO STRONG NEED TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR LUCAS...WOOD...HANCOCK...SANDUSKY...SENECA...WYANDOT...OTTAWA... AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. PA...NONE. && $$ DJB oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 242 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 CORRECTED TO ADD WATCH IN THE WATCH WARNING SECTION. .DISCUSSION... CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER 80S. A LINE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA MOVING EAST NORTHEAST WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA TRIES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA AS WELL. DTX SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IS POSSIBLY THE REASON ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WITH A MODERATE RISK JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO BORDER IN MICHIGAN. MORNING SOUNDING FROM DTX INDICATES A VEERING PROFILE ALONG WITH SPEED SHEAR AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. LATEST RUC INDICATES A -2 LI OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT COULD DROP EVEN FURTHER WITH THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS ARE WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOWER 70S IN THE EXTREME WEST. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY OVER INDIANA AS CAP IS STARTING TO BREAK. ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INDIANA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST OHIO. I DECIDED TO GO WITH LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE ACTIVITY HEADED TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUIET DOWN LATE THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND PVA MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SO I WILL DROP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GOING WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR HIGHS BUT WILL SHADE BACK A LITTLE BIT TO AT LEAST MIDDLE 80S IN THE WEST AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S EAST. VIGOROUS VORT MAX WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS MONDAY. WILL TAKE THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. CONCERN IS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IF IT DECIDES TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING...AT LEAST ONE DAY OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING ANOTHER SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY DIVE DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ONCE WEATHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY FOR MORE DRY WEATHER UNTIL YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN EXITING SLOWLY BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. SEE NO STRONG NEED TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR LUCAS...WOOD...HANCOCK...SANDUSKY...SENECA...WYANDOT...OTTAWA... AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. PA...NONE. && $$ LOMBARDY oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .DISCUSSION... CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER 80S. A LINE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA MOVING EAST NORTHEAST WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA TRIES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA AS WELL. DTX SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IS POSSIBLY THE REASON ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WITH A MODERATE RISK JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO BORDER IN MICHIGAN. MORNING SOUNDING FROM DTX INDICATES A VEERING PROFILE ALONG WITH SPEED SHEAR AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. LATEST RUC INDICATES A -2 LI OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT COULD DROP EVEN FURTHER WITH THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS ARE WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOWER 70S IN THE EXTREME WEST. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY OVER INDIANA AS CAP IS STARTING TO BREAK. ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INDIANA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST OHIO. I DECIDED TO GO WITH LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE ACTIVITY HEADED TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUIET DOWN LATE THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND PVA MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SO I WILL DROP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GOING WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR HIGHS BUT WILL SHADE BACK A LITTLE BIT TO AT LEAST MIDDLE 80S IN THE WEST AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S EAST. VIGOROUS VORT MAX WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS MONDAY. WILL TAKE THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. CONCERN IS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IF IT DECIDES TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING...AT LEAST ONE DAY OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING ANOTHER SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY DIVE DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ONCE WEATHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY FOR MORE DRY WEATHER UNTIL YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN EXITING SLOWLY BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. SEE NO STRONG NEED TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. && $$ LOMBARDY oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1103 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT VIS SAT INDCG SC ERODING FROM SOUTH AND WEST...WITH ALL BUT CNTRL OH LEFT IN LO CLDS. FURTHER EROSION WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BREAK OUT HERE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. EXPECTING CU TO DVLP OVER NEXT FEW HOURS WITH PLENTY OF LO LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WATCHING CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM KSDF WEST INTO SRN INDIANA ATTM. WHILE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TO TSTMS OVER LAST HOUR OR SO...STARTING TO GET SOME NEW DVLPMNT ACRS WESTERN KY UP INTO SW INDIANA WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THESE STORMS WILL WORK INTO SW FCST AREA AROUND 16Z. ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO GOING FCST AND MOST OF THOSE INVOLVED MAKING CHANGES TO ISC GRIDS. CURRENT RUC AND 12Z META SOLNS NOW INDCG GREATER AMOUNTS OF CAPE FOR AFTN...ON ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS FCST AREA HAS REMAINED GENERALLY RAIN-FREE OVER LAST 18 HOURS AND GETTING GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACRS SRN FCST AREA ATTM. INSTABILITY AND LO LVL MOISTURE WILL BE DRIVING FORCES FOR CONVECTION INITIATION THIS AFTN. WARM FRNT NOW WELL TO NORTH ACRS LWR MICHIGAN AND LITTLE IN WAY OF FORCING FOR AFTN. THIS SHOULD KEEP TSTMS RELATIVELY SCATTERED. WBZEROS AT 11K AND GREATER AND WEAK SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS...BUT GREATER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINS. DEWPTS NEAR 70 THIS AFTN AND PWATS CLIMBING ABV 1.50 INDCG LOCALLY HVY RAIN POTENTIAL. LO LVL CONV INCREASES AROUND 00Z AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR JET MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BETTER AREAL EXTENT TO TSTMS THIS EVNG AND A BIT BETTER THREAT FOR SVR STORMS. CURRENT 50 POPS COVERS THESE THOUGHTS WELL. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK AS WELL. NO ZONE UPDATE PLANNED...GRID ADJUSTMENTS ALREADY SENT TO ISC. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ RYAN oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1005 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 WL UPDATE THE GRIDS/TABLES/TEXT FCSTS TO INCRS THE CLDS FOR THIS AFTN...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY MOVING IN FM THE WEST. WL ADD IN A CHC OF SHWRS SPCLY SWRN/WCNTRL ZONES WHERE THE POP WL BE 50...SHADING DOWN TO 30 N AND E. RUC SHOWS THE VORT MAX BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS AND IT MOVS IT SLOLY THRU THE AREA THRU ERY/MID AFTN. WRN AREAS MAY ACTUALLY IMPRV DURG THE AFTN BUT WL BROADBRUSH FOR NOW AS THERE ARE SOME MORE SHWRS BEHIND THE MAIN AREA NOW APCHG...AND SC AREA SEEMS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ALTHO MAY TEND TO BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS TIME PROGRESSES. WL NOT ADD IN THUNDER ATTM AS IT DOES SEEM UNSTABLE ENUF...AND ACTIVITY SHUD BE RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED. WL DROP MAX TEMPS ONE CAT MOST ZONES. .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE/OCEAN...NONE. MARINE/DEL BAY...NONE. && PREV AFD IS BLO... -------------------------------------------------------------------- .OVERVIEW... START SAYING BYE-BYE TO THE DELIGHTFUL WEATHER AND SAY HELLO TO MY GOOD FRIEND: MR. HUMID. WE WILL BE LEANING TWD THE GFS SOLN WITH THIS FCST PKG BUT WILL TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION SOME OF ITS GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK PBLMS. MORE OF THEM CROP UP LTR IN THE MED RNG PERIOD AS OPPOSED TO ERLR IN THE FCST PKG AS THEY DID LAST NGT. MON AND MON NGT REMAIN FOCUS FOR MOST OF PCPN OVR NEXT 72 HRS. ETA AND GFS BOTH INIT TOO MUCH PWAT IN OH AND WE WILL USE THIS TO LEAN TWD THE LWR PCPN CHCS FOR TNGT. THERE IS MORE MDL CONSENSUS AGAIN TO PUSH WHAT/S LEFT OF THE CDFNT FASTER AND THRU ON TUE (MUST BE A NIGHT RUN THING). MDLS THEN NATURALLY DIVERGE WITH WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH MSTR ASSOCD WITH THE GUF MEX/YUCATAN TROP SYS AND THE MCS PARADE ARND THE RING OF FIRE. NO BIG CHGS TO BE MADE BEYOND TUE/TUE NGT. && .SHORT TERM (TDY THRU MON NGT)... IN THE EVERYTHING IS RELATIVE DEPT WE WOULD HAVE TAKEN SUN/S WX LAST WEEKEND...BUT IT WON/T BE AS PLEASANT AS YDA WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND. SHRT WV MOVG THRU DURG THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY MAY CAUSE AN IPVMNT DURG THE ERLY AFTN. OVERALL ITS MID AND HI LVL MSTR TDY AND THE SUN SHLD NOT HAVE ANY PBLM GETTING THRU. LLVL THICK ARE SIM TO YDA (ACTUALLY EXACTLY THE SAME) AND W/O LO CLDS TO BLOCK OUT THE SUN...WE WILL FCST SIM MAX TEMPS. DO NOT SEE ATMOS GETTING PRIMED ENUF FOR PCPN TO ARRIVE BY EVE AND SOUNDGS ARE VERY STABLE OUR WAY. INSTAB IS NOT FCSTD TO MOVE MUCH FTHR E THAN WHERE IT CUR IS NEAREST TO US (PIT). TNGT WE HAVE LEANED TWD THE GFS SOLN AS BOTH CAN MDLS/NAVY NOGAPS AND UKMET OFFER SIM QPF SOLNS. THUS WE ARE NOT GOING WITH THE ETA OR ITS CAT MOS. FCST MDLS ARE SHOWING A DISJOINTED SYS WITH THE BEST DPVA TDY...THE BEST MID LVL MSTR LATE TAFTN...THE BEST THETA E ADVT THIS EVE AND THE BEST INSTAB LATE AT NGT WELL TO OUR W. THE COPIOUS PWAT INIT IN OH DOES NOT ARGUE FOR A WETTER SOLN. SUFFICE WITH A GENTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOME WAA FCSTD WE WILL KEEP CHC POPS WHERE THE SUPPORT IS GREATEST AGAIN IN OUR NWRN ZNS. GUID MINS ARE CLUSTERED AND WILL BE FOLLOWED. MON RMNS THE ACTIVE WX DAY FOR US. THERE WILL BE A ROBUST FLOW FROM H8 AND ALF WITH SOME VEERING WITH HGT. THIS IS SHOWING IN THE FCSTD SHARP FIELDS. IF THERE ARE LACKING FEATURES IT WILL BE THE LACK OF MID LVL DRY AIR (36 K POINTS TO THAT) AND THE PERCEIVED LACK OF INSTAB. ETA BUFKIT SOUNDG MAXES PHL AT 76. JUST DO NOT SEE A MAX THAT LOW WITH MID 80S PTNLY DOABLE. THUS BLV FCST INSTAB WILL BE GREATER AND WITH MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO OUR W BUMPING INTO AN ONGOING WAA PAT OVR US...BLV THUNDER WILL DVLP AND MAY ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE FCSTD WIND FIELDS ALF CONCUR WITH SPC KEEPING CWA IN SLGT RISK. NO ENHANCED WORDG ATTM AS STILL IS 3RD PERIOD AND WANT TO SEE HOW MUCH WAA INDCD CLDS THERE WILL BE TO LOSE. EVEN W/O THE SVR THREAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS S/B REACHED AND WITH PWATS APCHG 2 INCHES WE WILL BUMP POPS INTO HIER CHC TWD THE LO LKLYS. CAN GEM FCSTG AN MCS TO PASS ACRS OUR NRN TIER ZNS. MAXT MACROS VAPOR LOCKING ON MON WITH H10-H8.5 THICK 35M HIER BY EVE AND GIVING US SIM FULL SUN MAX TEMPS. WE MAY BE BURNED (AGAIN) BY GOING TOO HIGH WITH THE MAX TEMPS...BUT H8 TEMPS EASILY SUPPORT MID 80S ON THE CSTL PLAIN AND THERE APRS TO BE NO LINGERING ONSHR FLOW TO NOT GO ABV THE GUID DATASETS. PCPN CHCS WILL BE CONTD MON NGT AS WHAT/S LEFT OF THE CDFNT STARTS PUSHING TWD OUR CWA. MUGGY EVE WITH DEWPTS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. && .LONG TERM (TUE THRU SAT)... AS MENTIONED ABV WE WILL BE REMOVING THE MENTION OF PCPN FROM TUE AND TUE NGT FROM PUBLIC WORDED ZONES. APOLOGIZE FOR THE FLIP FLOPPING...THE MDLS HAVE BEEN PUSHING FOR THIS WITH THE NGT RUNS AND WITH THE BEST MDL CONSENSUS ON THIS SOLN TO DATE...FEEL THIS SHLD COME TO FRUITION. WILL BUMP UP MAX TEMPS IN DOWNSLOPING FLOW CLSR TO 90 ALG THE CSTL PLAIN. NO CHGS BEYOND THAT. NO CONFID IN GFS MCS FCSTD FOR NRN ZNS WED NGT AND WILL LEAVE THE MNTN OF NEXT PCPN SHOT IN FOR THU AS IS. && .HYDROLOGY... BESIDE THE SVR PTNL...WE WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PSBLTY FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ON MON/MON NGT. A TROP CON FROM THE GUF MEX WILL BE IN PLACE ON MON AS PWATS APCH 2". WHL WE HAVE HAD PLEASANT WX HERE...THE PINCHED NW FLOW JUST OVR THE NERN U.S. HAS NOT FLUSHED AWAY THE REALLY JUICY AIR THAT HAS REMAINED IN PLACE FROM THE LWR OH VLY SWD AND SEWD. IT WON/T TAKE MUCH OF A CHG IN THE WINDS TO BRING THAT UNCOMFORTABLE AIR MASS NWD. OTHER RANDOM ELEMENT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT PLAY OUT WITH THU/S WX IS RMNT MSTR FROM WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE GULF. THERE IS MDL CONSENSUS THAT THE NEAREST PASS WILL BE WITH THU/S CFP. THAT NEAREST PASS THO MAY BE 500 MILES AWAY. && .MARINE...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE. WAVEWATCH HAS TRENDED A LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE S TO SW FLOW ON MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT...BUT LOCAL STUDY SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA (5 FT) GIVEN FORECAST WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION. AS A RESULT...FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE 5 DAY PERIOD. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING SO FAR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE BRIEF MVFR FORECAST BEFORE SUNRISE AT FAVORED FOG LOCATION...MIV...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z MON. && $$ GIGI/SZATKOWKSI/ pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 900 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .UPDATE... PLAN TO UPDATE THE FORECAST AND RAISE POPS TO AROUND 50 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THAT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS H85 WARM ADVECTION INCREASING AROUND 09Z. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A THUNDRESTORM POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE RUC KEEPS CROSS TOTALS IN THE LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... PLAN TO UPDATE THE GRIDS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. THE RUC SHOWS AN H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THIS MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. PLAN TO KEEP THE POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEX REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST DRIFTS EAST WITH SOME RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. PH2O CONTINUES HIGH WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE AREA, WILL KEEP CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER AND MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RIDGE SINKS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE APPROACHING FRONTS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE MID UPPER 80S WARM BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 90S FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 05/05 sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 733 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .UPDATE... PLAN TO UPDATE THE GRIDS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. THE RUC SHOWS AN H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THIS MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. PLAN TO KEEP THE POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEX REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST DRIFTS EAST WITH SOME RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. PH2O CONTINUES HIGH WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE AREA, WILL KEEP CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER AND MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RIDGE SINKS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE APPROACHING FRONTS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE MID UPPER 80S WARM BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 90S FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 05/05 sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 210 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .PUBLIC...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SC COAST. THE LATEST RUC ALSO SHOWS GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WITH LI/S -4 TO -6. CURRENT VORT MAX OVER SE GA EXTENDING INTO SOUTH COASTAL SC. ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO THIS AREA EARLY TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING THRU THE EVENING HOURS. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH S TO SE FLOW AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...GFS APPEARS TO BE OVER DONE WITH THE LIKELY POPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THE EXCESSIVE POPS FROM THE GFS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW OUT OF THE GULF FURTHER EWD THAN THE ETA. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD ETA SOLUTION IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...POPS WILL BE IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. MODELS HAVE A FRONT APPROACHING BUT BELIEVE IT WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. && .MARINE...RATHER DIFFUSE FNT S OF THE WATERS WILL DISSIPATE BY TNGT AS ATLC HIGH PRES SLOWLY SINKS S AND REBUILDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. SELY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO S AND SW AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15KT AS THE PRES GRAD LESSENS AND NO MAJOR SURGES ARE EXPECTED. SEAS WILL REMAIN CAPPED AT 4 FT AS FETCH BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR INCRG WAVES. ANOTHER FNT WILL APRCH FROM THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT MODELS CONT TO SLOW IT DOWN AND ALSO KEEP IT N OF THE AREA SO ITS ONLY EFFECTS SHOULD BE TO VEER WINDS TO WLY BY THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. NO HEADLINES. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ 30/JPC sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1004 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .PUBLIC...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH COASTAL SC THIS MORNING. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF MY CWA. LATEST RUC INDICATES WEAK VORT MAX OVER SRN GEORGIA THIS MORNING THRU NOON TIME. THE NEXT VORT MAX DOES NOT MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA UNTIL 23Z-00Z. SATELLITE SHOWING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF GEORGIA AND MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE ARE SOME SMALL BREAKS AND THIN SPOTS. CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE REACHABLE. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO TAKE OUT MORNING WORDING ON POPS. && .MARINE..CURRENT BUOY OBS SHOW E WINDS AROUND 15 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 3 FT. WILL INCREASE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WINDS TO 15 KNOTS ON UPDATE. NO OTHER SGFNT CHANGES EXPECTED. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ 30 sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 840 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .UPDATE...CRP 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A DRY/SUBSIDENT MID LEVEL. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE PWAT AT 1.6 INCHES. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...A VISUAL LOOK AT CLOUDS SHOWED VERTICAL GROWTH BEING HINDERED DUE TO THE MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. STORMS ALONG A S MOVING BOUNDARY CURRENTLY N OF THE VCT AREA...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NRN CWA...DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND IN SPITE OF MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND HIGHER LI'S ACROSS THE VCT AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MAKE IT INTO THE AREA FROM THE N. THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVERNIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOISTEN UP AS GFS PROGS 2 INCH PWATS TO MOVE ONTO THE MIDDLE TX COASTLINE...THUS SHRA'S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE GULF. WILL ALSO KEEP THE 20 POPS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND E CWA FOR OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO CHC POPS FOR MON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SERN ZONES WITH CAPES OF 3600 J/KG PER 18Z LAPS DATA. RUC ALSO SHOWS H85 THTE AXIS RUNNING NE-SW ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH AMS APPEARS TO BE UNDER SUBSIDENCE...WILL ADD A SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS ERN ZONES THRU EARLY EVENING AS UPR DISTURBANCE PASSES OVHD. NEXT...ALL EYES FOCUS ON THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE WRN GULF. THE 12Z MODELS INITILIZED THE SFC FEATURES POORLY...WHICH INTRODUCES MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE EQUATION. IT APPEARS THE COLD CORE TROF MOVING ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL HELP DRAW THE SYSTEM SLOWLY NNWD TOWARD THE UPPER TX OR LOUISIANA COASTS. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-5 FOOT RANGE. ON MONDAY MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM COULD GENERATE ISO/SCT SH/TSRA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS OUR ERN COUNTIES...WHICH WOULD TAPER OFF MON NIGHT. HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE GULF SYSTEM. .LONG-TERM (TUESDAY THRU SUNDAY)...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT UPR LOW RETROGRADING INTO S/CEN TEXAS THROUGH MID WEEK ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE SHIFTED IT FURTHER SOUTH YESTERDAYS RUNS AND INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH WED. IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE GOMEX...IT WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE PROBLEMS ORGANIZING AS THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP/MOVE NW OF THE SFC SYSTEM TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE LOTS OF S/SWRLY SHEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ATTM. IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WILL NEED TO DEVELOP OR MOVE MORE NW W/ THE MID-UPR LOW IN ORDER TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT OF COURSE THIS IS CURRENTLY A COLD CORE LOW SO THAT WOULD CREATE SOME SORT OF HYBRID SYSTEM. THIS IS ALL SPECULATION AT THIS POINT AND FOR NOW WILL ASSUME NO MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS IN THE GOMEX THIS FORECAST CYCLE...SHOWING ONLY A WEAK SFC REFLECTION. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT HPC DOES W/ THIS SYSTEM SHOULD A DEPRESSION FORM. OVERALL BELIEVE INCREASING MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW AND RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS (-7 TO -9 DEG C AT H5) SHOULD PROVIDE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE W/ LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. WILL CONTINUE HIGH END SCT POPS ACROSS THE EAST AND TAPER BACK TO SLT CHC FAR WRN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED AND THE POSITION WRT THE UPR LOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE. OF COURSE THIS IS ALL ASSUMING WE DO NOT END UP W/ A BETTER ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE 10-30 POP ON THURS FAVORING ERN ZONES...AND THEN CONTINUE A WARMING/DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND W/ ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING TO LIGHT TO MODERATE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 74 91 75 89 75 / 20 20 30 40 30 VICTORIA 72 91 75 88 74 / 20 40 30 50 30 LAREDO 77 100 78 96 77 / 05 10 10 20 20 ALICE 72 94 74 92 73 / 20 20 30 40 30 ROCKPORT 77 88 78 88 76 / 20 30 30 40 40 COTULLA 73 96 74 94 74 / 05 10 10 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 75/SHORT-TERM...JM 88/LONG-TERM...MJG tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SERN ZONES WITH CAPES OF 3600 J/KG PER 18Z LAPS DATA. RUC ALSO SHOWS H85 THTE AXIS RUNNING NE-SW ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH AMS APPEARS TO BE UNDER SUBSIDENCE...WILL ADD A SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS ERN ZONES THRU EARLY EVENING AS UPR DISTURBANCE PASSES OVHD. NEXT...ALL EYES FOCUS ON THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE WRN GULF. THE 12Z MODELS INITILIZED THE SFC FEATURES POORLY...WHICH INTRODUCES MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE EQUATION. IT APPEARS THE COLD CORE TROF MOVING ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL HELP DRAW THE SYSTEM SLOWLY NNWD TOWARD THE UPPER TX OR LOUISIANA COASTS. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-5 FOOT RANGE. ON MONDAY MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM COULD GENERATE ISO/SCT SH/TSRA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS OUR ERN COUNTIES...WHICH WOULD TAPER OFF MON NIGHT. HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE GULF SYSTEM. .LONG-TERM (TUESDAY THRU SUNDAY)...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT UPR LOW RETROGRADING INTO S/CEN TEXAS THROUGH MID WEEK ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE SHIFTED IT FURTHER SOUTH YESTERDAYS RUNS AND INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH WED. IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE GOMEX...IT WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE PROBLEMS ORGANIZING AS THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP/MOVE NW OF THE SFC SYSTEM TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE LOTS OF S/SWRLY SHEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ATTM. IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WILL NEED TO DEVELOP OR MOVE MORE NW W/ THE MID-UPR LOW IN ORDER TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT OF COURSE THIS IS CURRENTLY A COLD CORE LOW SO THAT WOULD CREATE SOME SORT OF HYBRID SYSTEM. THIS IS ALL SPECULATION AT THIS POINT AND FOR NOW WILL ASSUME NO MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS IN THE GOMEX THIS FORECAST CYCLE...SHOWING ONLY A WEAK SFC REFLECTION. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT HPC DOES W/ THIS SYSTEM SHOULD A DEPRESSION FORM. OVERALL BELIEVE INCREASING MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW AND RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS (-7 TO -9 DEG C AT H5) SHOULD PROVIDE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE W/ LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. WILL CONTINUE HIGH END SCT POPS ACROSS THE EAST AND TAPER BACK TO SLT CHC FAR WRN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED AND THE POSITION WRT THE UPR LOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE. OF COURSE THIS IS ALL ASSUMING WE DO NOT END UP W/ A BETTER ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE 10-30 POP ON THURS FAVORING ERN ZONES...AND THEN CONTINUE A WARMING/DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND W/ ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING TO LIGHT TO MODERATE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 74 91 75 89 75 / 20 20 30 40 30 VICTORIA 72 91 75 88 74 / 20 40 30 50 30 LAREDO 77 100 78 96 77 / 05 10 10 20 20 ALICE 72 94 74 92 73 / 20 20 30 40 30 ROCKPORT 77 88 78 88 76 / 20 30 30 40 40 COTULLA 73 96 74 94 74 / 05 10 10 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 75/SHORT-TERM...JM 88/LONG-TERM...MJG tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 122 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .UPDATE... PLANNING ANOTHER FORECAST UPDATE TO RAISE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 12Z MODELS INDICATE SPEED MAXIMUM ALOFT AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING DOWN INTO NORTHWEST TX THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. GRAVITY WAVES (FROM MORNING CONVECTION IN OKLAHOMA) PROPAGATING DOWN INTO NORTH TX AND APPROACHING OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. DRYLINE STARTING TO MIX EASTWARD AND MAY REACH EASTERN PARTS OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAKENING CAP THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...AND THIS TO OCCUR IN AREA OF MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...COULD SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP OR MOVE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AND POSSIBLY THE CONCHO VALLEY DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS. IN THE FORECAST UPDATE...WILL ALSO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY. WITH WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOME OF THE COUNTIES (WITH LAKES) IN WESTERN HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY. VIGOROUS MIXING WITH REMAINS OF LOW LEVEL JET RESULTING IN 20- 30 MPH SURFACE WINDS IN THAT AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKEN. .PREV DISCUSSION... CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT PUSHED EAST AND OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED KICK OFF THE CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON MOVING NORTHEAST AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER TODAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK...BUT GIVEN AT LEAST THE PRESENCE OF THE DRYLINE AND A FEW RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS IN MANY OF THE ZONES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ETA AND GFS BOTH DEPICT A SHEAR ZONE TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...BOTH MODELS NOW SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AND WANDERING AROUND THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE. COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...AS LONG AS WE STAY ON THE WEST SIDE...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MUCH OF THE EAST AND HOPE SYSTEM WANDERS FARTHER TO THE WEST. && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 19/27 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1044 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 WILL OPT TO UPDATE THE GOING FCST TO MAKE SOME MINOR FIRST AND SECOND PERIOD CHANGES. .SYNOPSIS... HI PRESS TO BUILD TO THE SE OF THE FA TODAY. FRONTAL SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND TONITE. .SHORT TERM (THROUGH TONITE)... 06Z TAQ RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE U60S-L80S TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS AT 10-20 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE NEAR 80F TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND CURRENT MESONET OBS TRENDS. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS NY STATE TODAY. PW VALUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TO AS HIGH AS 1.5" TODAY. RUC SHOWS SOME SCT PCPN ACRS THE ST LAW VLY LATE TODAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING PTSUNNY OTRW. VIS SAT PIX SHOW SOME CLDS MAKING PROGRESS ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST ATTM. WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FA TONITE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA LATE TODAY...WITH BETTER MID-LVL MSTR ACRS THE FA TONITE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 1-1.5" TONITE. RUC/ETA SHOW CAPES ACRS THE FA TO BE AOB 1-200 J/KG TODAY AND TONITE. NOTED FA IN SPC GEN TSTM OUTLOOK TODAY AND TONITE FROM THE CHAMP VLY WESTWARD. LESS AND LESS CLD COVER EXPECTED AS ONE TRAVELS WEST ACRS THE FA TODAY. SOME PCPN POSSIBLE ACRS THE FA BY LATER TONITE...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE WRN ZONES. CHC OF ANY THUNDER LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL ACRS THE FA TONITE. REST OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST MOSTLY COSMETIC. WRK ZONES AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY AROUND 11 AM. MURRAY .PREV DISCUSSION...FROM 146 AM EDT FCST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHCS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY .SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS EASTERN CONUS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS ULVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MVS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY/GREAT LKS. VAPOR LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LKS MVING TWD OUR FA THIS MORNING... THEREFORE EXPECT MORE HIGH CLDS TDY. OTHERWISE...LARGE MCS WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN KS/WESTERN MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH ULVL TROF AND ENERGY WL MV TOWARD FA TODAY AND IMPACT OUR WX EARLY THIS WEEK IN PROGRESSIVE ULVL PATTERN. CRNT SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 1025MB HIGH NEAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS ACRS OUR WESTERN FA. TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WNDS. .SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUE)... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF ULVL RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES. BASED ON CRNT SAT TRENDS OF CLDS WL USE ETA/GFS BLEND OF 1000-500MB MOISTURE PROGS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH CLDS TODAY AND THE 850-700MB RH FIELDS FOR MID LVL CLD DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN IN OUR GRIDS. THESE MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW A NICE WEST TO EAST DEVELOPMENT OF CLDS ACRS OUR FA TODAY. OTHERWISE...PROGGED 85H AND 925H TEMPS ARE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AND LLVL SW FLOW WL ADD SOME HEATING. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS U70S MTNS TO NEAR 80F VALLEYS WITH VSF AROUND 82F. TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFICULT IN TIMING/LOCATION OF MOISTURE/LIFT INTO CWA ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND 5H VORT IN FLOW ALOFT. ETA IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LIFT/MOISTURE ACRS OUR FA...WHILE GFS IS WEAKER AND MOVES INITIAL MID LVL LIFT/MOISTURE QUICKLY THROUGH OUR FA OVERNIGHT. WL BLEND THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND KEEP CHC WORDING IN THE ZNS WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR MEASURING OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. MONDAY... MID/UPPER LVL TROF APPROACHES CWA FROM GREAT LKS...ALONG WITH SFC COLD FRNT. ETA SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP ACRS OUR FA THRU MONDAY WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...GFS LIFTS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP/MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN AND HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE WL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATE MONDAY AFTN. SVR WX PARAMETERS LOOK MARGINALLY ATTM WITH CAPE VALUES 1000 J/KG OR LESS AND LIS AROUND -2...BUT IF MORE HEATING OCCURS THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR ACRS OUR WESTERN FA WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. ALSO...HELPING ENHANCE LIFT WITH BE SEVERAL 5H VORTS IN SW FLOW ALOFT...NOSE OF 25H JET... 30KT 85H JET...AND SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRNT. WL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NITE AND CONT TO MENTION TS WORDING. GFS SHOWS SFC FRNT AND BEST LIFT/MOISTURE ACRS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUES...WHILE ETA HAS FRNT STILL TO OUR WEST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND IMPACT OF CONVECTION WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS EARLY TUES IN FCST FOR EASTERN ZNS...BUT WL TREND TOWARD QUICKLY GFS GIVEN CRNT ULVL PATTERN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE FROM TODAY INTO MONDAY...THEREFORE EXPECT U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEY ZNS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED TUES AS LLVL CAA DEVELOPS. .LONG TERM (WEDS-THURS)... PROGRESSIVE ULVL PATTERN WL CONT ACRS CONUS WITH FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW EXPECTED. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL S/W'S AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES WL BCM INCREASING MORE DIFFICULT WEDS INTO THURS. WL KEEP WEDS DRY ATTM...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH 5H VORT AND SFC COLD FRNT APPROACHING OUR FA FROM THE GREAT LKS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 12C SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS INTO THURS. .AVIATION... STILL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. SATELLITE TRENDS ONLY SHOW SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BASES SHOULD BE ABOUT 4000 FEET. WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE INCREASED FROM THIS TIME LAST NIGHT AND WITH THE MIXED LAYER GETTING TO AROUND 5000 FEET TODAY...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY AND FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION/LOWER CEILINGS WILL COME AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. TABER/EVENSON .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 919 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 CURRENT FORECASTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED E OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH BROAD S-SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS RATHER WEAK AND LARGELY ANTI-CYCLONIC OVER OUR REGION...THUS KEEPING THE ACTIVE WEATHER SW-W-NW OF THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF OCCASIONAL SPURTS OF WARM ADVECTION MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY/THIS EVENING...PER LATEST 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY (PARTICULARLY BELOW 700 MB) TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE RAIN. MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTH (N OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION). COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW LOSES ITS DEFINITION S OF THE OH VLY WITH THE WEAKER...MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT (20%) POPS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT W OF I-95 AS THE LATEST GFS/ETA/RUC DO SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING (850-500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE) AND SUBSEQUENT LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT/MOISTENING TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL OPT NO HIGHER THAN 10-20% HOWEVER AS THE 850 MB JET AND THETA-E AXES REMAIN WELL W OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON THE MARINE FRONT...NO CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECT THE UPDATED FORECASTS TO BE OUT AROUND 10-1030 PM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. VA...NONE. NC...NONE. && HURLEY PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW... -------------------------------------------------------------------- .SYNOPSIS... SFC HI PRES PUSHING SLOLY OFFSHR TNGT. NEXT 5-7 DAYS WL FEATURE WK RDGG GENLY OVR SE CONUS...W/ NRLY ZNL FLO ACR NRN TIER PART OF THE CNTRY (FM RCKYS TO NEW ENG). FA WL RMN ALG NRN RIM OF RDG ALOFT...AND WHL A FEW SFC FNTL BNDRYS ATTEMPT TO SETTLE INTO/THRU THE RGN THIS WK...NONE OF THEM LIKELY TO BE VRY SGFNT...AND BE ABLE TO BRING TOO MUCH CHG FM WRMR/HUMID CONDS. LO PRES OVR GOM MVS NNW TWD GULF CST STATES ERY DURG 1ST PART OF UPCOMING WK. DOES SOME OF ITS MSTR EVENTUALLY REACH RGN? WL NEED TO FOLLOW TRENDS NEXT CPL OF DAYS. && .DISCUSSION... LLVL WDG CONTG TO DSPT...AS SFC HI PRES WKNS/CONTG TO MV OFFSHR. CORRIDOR OF MSTR RMNS OVR RGN TNGT INTO TUE...DIFFICULT TO REALLY PINPOINT EXACT WHAT CAN TRIGGER PCPN NEXT CPL OF DAYS...HWVR...30% POPS SHOULD CVR PSBLTY. IN ADDTN...WRMR/MR HUMID CONDS RETURN...LEADING TO DAYS IN THE 80S...NGTS IN THE UPR 60S-70S. GENLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE ON MED/LNG RNG FCST (WRT FNTS). WL GO W/ ONE FNT APPROACHING RGN THU...DSPTG OVR NC FRI...THEN 2ND FNT APPROACHING BY NEXT SUN. WL CONFINE BEST CHCS FOR CNVTN (ALBIET 30%) TO THU AFTN...AND AGAIN SUN. && .MARINE... NO SGFNT WX NEXT CPL OF DAYS. && .AVIATION... GENLY VFR CONDS TNGT INTO MON. && $$ 25/32 va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1017 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 RMNTS OF SFC HI PRES/LLVL COOL AIR WDG OVR INTR SXNS ATTM...GRDLY ERODES THRUT THE AFTN/EVE HRS. BAND OF CLDNS FM PA TO GA HEADING E...DSPTG SOMEWHAT UPON MVG TO THE CST. ACCORDING TO 12Z RUC...VRY LTL/NO INSTABILITY FOR TSRAS (SO RMVD FM FCST)...ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL SHRAS FM THE W MAY CONT TO REACH PDMNT IN CNTRL VA (WHR KPG 20-30% POP FOR REST OF TDA). OTRW...PSNY E HALF/MCLDY W THRUT THE AFTN...TEMPS REACHING 70S ALL AREAS (COOLEST NR BAY/OCN). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. VA...NONE. NC...NONE. 25 va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA 330 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 .DISCUSSION...SOME ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TODAY. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARD THE CWA/PWA WITH SOME OUTLYING RAIN BANDS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH. THE ETA AND THE GFS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON WHERE TO TRACK THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE WITH THE ETA TAKING A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE WESTERN TRACK THAN THE GFS. BASED ON THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...CURRENT THINKING IS TOO LEAN A BIT MORE WITH THE GFS AS SUPPORTED BY HPC GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH PLAN TO EXPAND THE FFA A BIT MORE TOWARD THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS MAKING THEIR WAY WESTWARD. THIS WOULD THEN HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF ENERGY MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LEADING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLAY PAST TODAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR RAIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE UPPER LEVELS. THE LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS AN UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHEAR POCKETS TRAVERSING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTHEAST. && PRELIMINARY POINT NUMBERS... MCB 85 72 87 71 / 90 50 60 30 BTR 86 73 88 72 / 90 50 60 30 MSY 84 75 87 75 / 90 50 60 30 GPT 82 75 85 75 / 90 50 60 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...FFA LAZ035>040-047>050-057>064-068>070 MS...FFA MSZ068>071-077-080>082 LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...SCA FROM PASCAGOULA TO THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 60 NM EXCLUDING TIDAL LAKES. && 09 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 531 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERN FOCUSES ON PCPN CHANCES TODAY AND THEN AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD INTO MN ATTM AND FAST APPROACHING THE UPPER GRT LAKES. A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS NOTED OVER THE PAC NW AND THIS IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ETA/GFS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSION OF FEATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE OVER MN AND ASSOC -18C 5H COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED MIDDAY ETA FCST SOUNDINGS FOR A SFC T/TD OF 66/52F YIELDS CAPE AROUND 800J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE SHOULD PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION AGAIN. GIVEN LIGHT SFC-950 MB FLOW...LOOK FOR LAKE BREEZES BOUNDARIES OFF SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN TO PROVIDE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA...BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE AFTN. CONVERGENCE MIGHT LEAD TO DWPT POOLING AND HIGHER CAPE AS WELL. LOW WETBULB ZERO HGTS OF AROUND 8-9 KFT AND MID-LVL SR-FLOW OF AROUND 20 KT COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND MARGINALLY GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT MARGINAL THREAT IN HWO..BUT EXPECT STORMS TO STAY BLO SVR CRITERIA. WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS ERN COUNTIES THEN TAPER LOWER CHC POPS WEST. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER SE FCST AREA WILL END EARLY MON EVENING WITH SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. PAC NW SHORTWAVE HEADS E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON TUE AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY WED MORNING. MODELS HINT AT SOME PCPN ARRIVING LATE TUE AFTN IN SW COUNTIES...BUT GIVEN SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER AREA DURING THE DAY KEPT TUE DRY FOR NOW. BROUGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA EARLY TUE EVENING AS UPR DIV INCREASES IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 120 KT 3H JET OVER WRN ONTARIO AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPROACHES. DESPITE GOOD CONVERGENCE FCST BY MODELS ALONG THE FRONT AND GOOD UPR DIV...KEPT IN CHC POPS FOR NOW. THE REASON IS SHRTWV AND ASSOC WARM FRONT OVER IA/IL COULD ALLOW FOR MCS FORMATION WHICH MAY ROB DEEP MSTR FROM REACHING NORTH INTO OUR CWA. FRONTAL TIMING FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH MODELS SHOWING FRONT EXITING THE ERN FCST WED MORNING. SO KEPT CHC POPS IN FOR ERN HALF WED MORNING. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 352 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004 .DISCUSSION... SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. THE 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWED THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL WORK EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST COAST BY TUESDAY. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES SHOW A SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WHICH SHOULD HELP FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. THE 07Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A MORE WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN IOWA. THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME WEAK DCVA INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z...PROVIDING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO SE MICHIGAN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 0-1KM MIXED LAYER CAPE ON ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG ACROSS SE MICHIGAN BY 18/21Z AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...WINDS NEAR 500MB WILL STRENGTHEN TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING 0-6KM SHEAR TO INCREASE TO 30 M/S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO MULTI CELL CLUSTERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME LINEAR AND PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9 AND 10K FT...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THE ETA SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TO THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ETA SOLUTION DEVELOPS AN MCS OVER IOWA THIS MORNING...THEN TRACKS THE REMNANTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS FAR...CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS BEEN MORE SCATTERED...WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN INDICATED BY THE ETA. THE 04KM WRF ACTUALLY HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION THUS FAR...AND IS SUGGESTIVE OF THE CONVECTION BEING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON OVER LOWER MI...EXCEPT OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY. AS FOR THIS MORNING...WILL INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE RUC IS ALSO INDICATING A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...MOVING EAST. THESE FEATURES HAVE ALLOWED SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA THIS PAST HOUR. WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COUPLED WITH MUCH DRYER AIR AT 850MB SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE ACTUALLY IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...INDICATING A LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROPA. THIS OF COURSE WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION PRIOR TO FROPA. WITH THE REGION WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130KT 250MB JET...VERY STRONG FOR MID JUNE...AND GIVEN THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER LAKES...THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE TRENDS IN THE ETA AND GFS HAVE BEEN TOWARD DRYER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO A NARROW AXIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WILL THUS TRIM BACK THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO RAISE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND...WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL OF COURSE LEAD TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SE MICHIGAN. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ CONSIDINE EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 215 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 .DISCUSSION...TODAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TROPICAL CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS AND WARM TEMPS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS SEEM A BIT LOW ON THE CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY...AND ARE ONLY CARRYING FEW TO SCT. A SEA BREEZE DID NOT DEVELOP YESTERDAY BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. PWAT AT BRO IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. STILL...UNTIL THAT TRIGGER POINT IS DISCOVERED...WILL LEAVE POPS OUT FOR TODAY WITH THE DAY SHIFT ABLE TO HANDLE WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS OR A MID MORNING UPDATE. SPEAKING OF POPS...UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO THE IMPACT OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF. ACTUALLY...RAIN CHANCES HERE SEEM MORE TIED TO THE MACHINATIONS OF AN H5 LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO MEANDER AROUND THE WEST GULF AND EVENTUALLY...TUESDAY...GET CLOSE ENOUGH AND BROADEN TO THE POINT WHERE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. THE TELL TALE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP RAIN IN THE CORPUS CWA. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...THEN BRO MAY HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT SOME RAIN FOR TUESDAY AND PERHAPS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE H5 LOW SHIFTS BACK NORTH. IN VIEW OF THE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER...WILL TRIM POPS BACK JUST A SHADE TO ISOLATED INLAND AND SCATTERED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AFTER WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING FILLS IN ALOFT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. && .SYNOPTIC...THE LATEST BRO SOUNDING OF 14/00Z REVEALS INCREASING MOISTURE IN LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW WITH PWAT AT 1.76 INCHES. THIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND GETTING TO THE POINT AT WHICH SHOWERS DON'T NEED MUCH OF AN EXCUSE TO DEVELOP. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS HAVING NO EFFECT ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OTHER THAN TO PERHAPS SERVE AS A MOSITURE SOURCE. && .MARINE...MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SEAS WERE 3 FEET WITH EAST WINDS NEAR 7 KNOTS AT BUOY 020. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND RUC 500 MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS INDICATES EXTREME WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF. 500 MB LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST TODAY AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST AND THE COASTAL BEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUES NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TX COAST IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH TUES NIGHT AND OPEN UP AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EAST TX WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY BRINGING AN END TO CONVECTION BY FRIDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. && .AVIATION...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REMAIN UNRESTRICTED THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE CWA REMAINS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE 700MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE SUBSIDENCE DIMINISHES WITH THE 700MB LOW EDGING TOWARDS THE TX COAST OVERNIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004...A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST COUPLED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO, WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOUISIANA TO NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE REGION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO WESTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO TEXAS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA THIS WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 76 91 79 93 / 00 00 10 20 20 BROWNSVILLE 93 75 93 77 94 / 00 00 10 20 20 HARLINGEN 94 75 94 77 96 / 00 00 10 20 20 MCALLEN 96 76 96 76 98 / 00 00 10 20 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 75 98 75 100 / 00 00 10 20 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 77 89 80 89 / 00 00 10 20 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 54/61 THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 413 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TIMING OF CONVECTION NEXT FEW DAYS. SHRT WV TROF TRIGGERING TSTMS OVR WRN IA/SW MN FCST TO REACH WI BY 18Z TDY...INTERACTING WITH WEAK BNDRY THAT WAS FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TSTMS OVERNIGHT AS 300 MB JET MAX DEPICTED IN RUC MOVED ACROSS ERN CWA. FCST PCPN MOVG INTO WRN CWA BY MID MORNING THEN CROSSING CWA THRU ERLY AFTN TIMES WELL WITH FRONTOGENTIC FORCING AND BEST LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG TROF. AFTER WK RIDGING BRINGS A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUES...850 MB FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF VIGOROUS WAVE RUNNING US/CAN BORDER IN ZONAL FLOW. FOCUS OF LOW LVL JET REMAINS WEST OF CWA UNTIL AFTER 00Z WED. HAVE BROUGH CHC INTO WEST WITH 40 KT 850 WINDS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF SFC TROF. HAVE KEPT POPS AT HI CHC LEVEL AS 06Z ETA RUNS INDICATE POSSIBLITY OF BETTER PCPN SPLITTING...WITH BEST PCPN TIED TO DCVA OVER NRN WI AND WITH MCS RUNNING ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF IL/WI BRDR. BUMPED UP TEMPS A NOTCH TUE DUE TO DELAY IN PCPN AND FEWER CLOUDS WITH WEAK RIDGE. && .MKX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE $$ REM wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 920 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004 .SHORT-TERM...LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEGINNING DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER THROUGH AFTERNOON. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN VORT MAX WHICH CAUSED THE RECORD BREAKING RAINFALL AT KJAX LAST NIGHT HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT IN ITS WAKE A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF NVA WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES PRIMARILY KEEPING DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY JUST TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE PENINSULA...OVER 2 INCHES PW'S AT MOST AREAS...WOULD EXPECT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO GENERATE GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE SUBSIDENCE. AS FAR AS THE FLOOD POTENTIAL...AS MENTIONED BEFORE IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA IN THE PANHANDLE. OVER OUR AREA...RAIN SHOULD REMAIN A LITTLE MORE LOCALIZED AND THEREFORE A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES PLANNED. && .MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS. SOUTHEAST FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ DEESE/HURLBUT/HESS fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1015 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004 .UPDATED...COMPLEX SITUATION SETTING UP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW IN WESTERN GULF WITH RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST. IN BETWEEN...THERE IS A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF MODELS SIMILAR...BUT DETAILS OF MOISTURE FIELDS ARE VERY DIFFERENT. KNOWING ETA WEAKNESS OF HANDLING OF MOISTURE FIELDS...HAVE THROWN THIS MODEL OUT. PREFER BLEND OF RUC/UKMET/GFS MOISTURE FIELDS BASED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AND MODEL STRENGTHS. APPEARS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NE GULF WILL STREAM NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE FIELDS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...950-850 JET OF 25 TO 35 KTS...PE VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...AND THETA-E RIDGE IN PLACE ALL SUPPORT LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. BACK BUILDING POTENTIAL EXISTS AS 850 WINDS ARE FASTER THAN THE 850-300 WINDS CAN EVACUATE AWAY THE AIR. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. HOWEVER...DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL IT IS CLEAR WHERE AND IF WE CAN SEE THE DETAILS OF ANY MESOSCALE SETUP TO SUPPORT A WATCH DURING AN OVERALL DRY SPELL. LOOKS LIKE WE NEED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECDENT CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...WILL HANDLE WITH SPS. ONE OTHER THING NOTED THIS MORNING IS THE NEGATIVE TILTED RIDGE. THIS IS CLASSIC FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED AS UPPER AIR PROFILE MAINLY SUPPORTS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ NOEL ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA 935 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 .UPDATE... UPDATED TO DROP SCA WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. .DISCUSSION...SOME ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TODAY. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARD THE CWA/PWA WITH SOME OUTLYING RAIN BANDS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH. THE ETA AND THE GFS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON WHERE TO TRACK THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE WITH THE ETA TAKING A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE WESTERN TRACK THAN THE GFS. BASED ON THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...CURRENT THINKING IS TOO LEAN A BIT MORE WITH THE GFS AS SUPPORTED BY HPC GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH PLAN TO EXPAND THE FFA A BIT MORE TOWARD THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS MAKING THEIR WAY WESTWARD. THIS WOULD THEN HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF ENERGY MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LEADING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLAY PAST TODAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR RAIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE UPPER LEVELS. THE LATEST NWP GUIDANCE HAS AN UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHEAR POCKETS TRAVERSING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTHEAST. && PRELIMINARY POINT NUMBERS... MCB 85 72 87 71 / 90 50 60 30 BTR 86 73 88 72 / 90 50 60 30 MSY 84 75 87 75 / 90 50 60 30 GPT 82 75 85 75 / 90 50 60 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...FFA LAZ035>040-047>050-057>064-068>070 MS...FFA MSZ068>071-077-080>082 LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...SCA FROM PASCAGOULA TO THE SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 60 NM. && 09/25 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1111 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004 .UPDATE... UPDATE FOCUS IS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS QUICKLY DESTABILIZING. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH LOWER 70S JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. SOMEWHAT CAPPED ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAS LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING...WITH GOOD INSOLATION. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S BY 15Z...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S STILL ON TRACK. MODIFIED 12Z DTX SOUNDING FOR A MODEST 82/67 STILL LEADS TO 3000J/KG CAPE. WIND FIELDS ARE ALSO DECENT...WITH 20KTS AT 850MB/40KTS AT 500MB...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30M/S. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...WHICH WOULD HELP TO ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. FREEZING LEVELS ARE STILL RUNNING NEAR 13-14KFT...SO HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED...AND TAKING ON A BOW SHAPE ON THE LEADING EDGE. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT/850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH ANOTHER BACK ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 100KT 300MB JET ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY EVENING...WITH LOWER MICHIGAN GETTING INTO SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH FAST FORWARD PROPAGATING BOW ECHO OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALREADY ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA UNTIL 22Z. ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ORGANIZED COMPLEX WILL ZIP ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLIER IN THE DAY. CONCERN THAT THE STORM TO THE SOUTH WILL DISRUPT INFLOW/BLOWOFF WILL HELP STABILIZE THE AREA AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH CONCERN TO KEEP A MENTION OF THE SEVERE IN THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. ZONE UPDATE OUT...WITH UPDATED HWO TO FOLLOW. && BRAVENDER .PREV DISCUSSION...352 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004 SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. THE 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWED THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL WORK EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST COAST BY TUESDAY. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES SHOW A SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WHICH SHOULD HELP FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. THE 07Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A MORE WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN IOWA. THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME WEAK DCVA INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z...PROVIDING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO SE MICHIGAN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 0-1KM MIXED LAYER CAPE ON ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG ACROSS SE MICHIGAN BY 18/21Z AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...WINDS NEAR 500MB WILL STRENGTHEN TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING 0-6KM SHEAR TO INCREASE TO 30 M/S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO MULTI CELL CLUSTERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME LINEAR AND PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9 AND 10K FT...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THE ETA SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TO THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ETA SOLUTION DEVELOPS AN MCS OVER IOWA THIS MORNING...THEN TRACKS THE REMNANTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS FAR...CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS BEEN MORE SCATTERED...WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN INDICATED BY THE ETA. THE 04KM WRF ACTUALLY HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION THUS FAR...AND IS SUGGESTIVE OF THE CONVECTION BEING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON OVER LOWER MI...EXCEPT OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY. AS FOR THIS MORNING...WILL INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE RUC IS ALSO INDICATING A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...MOVING EAST. THESE FEATURES HAVE ALLOWED SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA THIS PAST HOUR. WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COUPLED WITH MUCH DRYER AIR AT 850MB SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE ACTUALLY IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...INDICATING A LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROPA. THIS OF COURSE WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION PRIOR TO FROPA. WITH THE REGION WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130KT 250MB JET...VERY STRONG FOR MID JUNE...AND GIVEN THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER LAKES...THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE TRENDS IN THE ETA AND GFS HAVE BEEN TOWARD DRYER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO A NARROW AXIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WILL THUS TRIM BACK THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO RAISE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND...WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL OF COURSE LEAD TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SE MICHIGAN. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ CONSIDINE EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1020 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004 .UPDATE... IMPRESSIVE SPEED MAX SEEN APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN 12Z RAOB DATA. 500 MB WND SPD AT MINNEAPOLIS THIS MORNING WAS 65 KTS AND WILL BE TRANSLATING EAST INTO WRN LWR MI THIS AFTERNOON. LWR MI IS VIRTUALLY CLOUD FREE ATTM AND DEVELOPING SLY FLOW AHEAD IF APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IS SENDING 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK NORTH FROM INDIANA. CAPES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED OVER 1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES ARE NEAR -6. LATEST RUC HAS LIFTED INDICES TO -9 BY 21Z. SVR THREAT INITIALLY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE SRN CWFA FROM CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM SRN WI/NRN IL...BUT SUSPECT ALL OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SEVERE THREAT ONCE THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN AFTER 18Z. WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH FROM WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS CONSIDERING THE BUILDING INSTABILITY AND APPROACHING UPPER DYNAMICS. MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GOING FCST OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY LOOKS FINE AND LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. && .GRR...NONE. && $$ MEADE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1019 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN UPDATE CONCERN IS RAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTN. 12Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAOBS SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN U.S....WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON THROUGH IOWA AND NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THE MAIN SHRTWV IN THIS TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED OVER MN. 500MB TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WERE -17 TO -19C. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WAS NOTED EXTENDING FROM A 998MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY TO DULUTH. KDLH/KMQT RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR AITKIN MN AT 11Z. THESE SHOWERS WERE SUPPORTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV IN MN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 110 KT JET AT 250MB NEAR ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA. 850MB TEMPS SLOWLY COOLING DOWN AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT STILL IN THE 10-12C RANGE OVER UPPER MI AT 12Z PER RUC AND RAOB ANALYSIS (+4C THOUGH UP AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS). VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING SOME SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE U.P. 12Z RUC/ETA INDICATE THE BROAD TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST... ALLOWING THE 110 KT JET TO MOVE TO NW WI BY 21Z. THIS WILL PLACE UPPER MI IN UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE 500MB SHRTWV...EXPECT THE SHRTWV TO REACH CENTRAL UPPER MI AT 21Z ALONG WITH ITS 500MB COLD POOL OF -18C. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL GET TO RISE THE TEMPS. CURRENT CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SO FULL SUNSHINE NOT EXPECTED. BUT STILL WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 8-10C...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 70S...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOW 60S. MODIFIED 18Z RUC SOUNDING FOR THE IRON RIVER AREA...USING 70 TEMPERATURE AND 54 DEWPOINT (CURRENTLY IMT IS AT 63/58 AND IWD IS 61/54) YIELDS AROUND 1100 J/KG OF CAPE WITH NO CIN. SO DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TROUGH COMING THROUGH. 950MB WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS ALSO SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES...WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE BOTH CONVERGENCE AND POOLING OF DEWPOINTS. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 8700 FT (EVEN A LOW FREEZING LEVEL AT 9300 FT) SUPPORTS HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT ORGANIZE... HOWEVER FIGURE MOST STORMS WILL BE EITHER OF THE PULSE TYPE OR MULTICELL SINCE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 30 TO 35 KTS. DAMAGING WIND IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN A 13K DROP IN THETA-E FROM THE SURFACE TO 700MB...BUT HAIL DEFINITELY APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGER HAZARD. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS UPPER MI IN THE 5-15% FOR HAIL AND WIND WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...STORMS AND HAIL TO BE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZES...THEREFORE THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA SHOULD STAY QUIET. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCATIONS SUCH AS MARQUETTE AND MANISTIQUE SEEING AT LEAST RAINFALL AS STORMS DIE CROSSING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1000 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004 .DISCUSSION... MORNING SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT DATA NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AS FAR AS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG CONVECTION GOES...BUT WITH P/W VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES AND LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES PLANNED. && .MARINE... SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH A 3 FT SOUTHEAST SWELL AT THE BUOYS THIS MORNING. 12Z RUC FORECASTS WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH A SLIGHT VEER THROUGH 00Z. ALSO RUC SHOWS WINDS STAYING MORE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SO WILL MODIFY WIND DIRECTION A BIT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES PLANNED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE && $$ PUBLIC: KREITNER MARINE: HAWKINS nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION... UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1010 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004 .SHORT TERM... GRIDS AND ZONES WILL BE UPDATED DURING LATE MORNING ONLY TO INCLUDE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES. WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS IN MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A NUMBER OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. STABILITY INDICES AND WIND FIELDS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER... BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND K INDICES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING CONVECTION. RUC SHOWS A MORE WELL DEFINED UPSLOPE SURFACE WIND BY EARLY AFTERNOON... SO SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG ESCARPMENT. WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY AXIS ALONG GA/SC BORDER DRIFTS EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ LGL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1004 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004 .UPDATE...FIRST VISBY SAT PICS THIS MORNING SHOW CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. FEW BREAKS FORMING UP IN THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW MORE HEATING TO OCCUR THERE. THIS PRESENTS SOME CONCERNS AS 00Z AND 06Z MESOETA ADVERTISED A 342K THETA-E RIDGE OVER OUR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG WITH LARGE LEVELS OF MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE REALLY SHOWING UP BY 18Z TODAY. LATEST RUC MODEL DELAYS THIS RIDGE AND CONVERGENCE UNTIL AROUND 21Z TODAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES ASIDE...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH TODAY WILL FIND MORE PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE. ADDITIONALLY...MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS BRING IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND ALREADY WARM TEMPERATURES...LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR ANY CONVECTION TO TAKE PLACE TODAY. REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY. FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING...BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE TO LIKELY POPS AREA WIDE BY 18Z TODAY. WITH SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING THROUGH LEE CO VA...WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY IN SWVA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. WILL TAPER POPS BACK TO CHANCE BY 00Z AS PRECIP TRENDS THE LAST TWO DAYS HAVE SHOWN A LARGE WEAKENING TREND IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP WITHIN ONE HOUR OF SUNSET. WILL ALSO LOWER TEMPS GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT CLOUD COVER MAY MAKE IT A BIT DIFFICULT TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. CURRENT CHANGES ARE IN LINE WITH CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE. BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY IS FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY SEEN VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. IF THESE SAME LOCATIONS RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN AGAIN TODAY...COULD HAVE MORE FLOODING PROBLEMS. FOR THE AREA AS A WHOLE...SOME RAINFALL CAN BE SUSTAINED AND WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ KG/BB tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1046 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004 WILL OPT TO UPDATE THE GOING FCST FOR SOME FIRST AND SECOND PERIOD CHANGES. .SYNOPSIS... CF TO MOSTLY STAY TO THE W-NW OF THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. .SHORT TERM (THROUGH TONITE)... 06Z TAQ RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP IN THE 60S-M80S TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS AT 10-15G25 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE U70S-M80S TODAY AND LOOK GENERALLY TOO WARM BASED ON EXPECTED CLD COVER FOR MUCH OF TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND CURRENT MESONET OBS TRENDS. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. RUC/IPW DATA SHOW VALUES OF 0.6-1.6" ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. RUC SHOWS WIDELY SCT PCPN AT BEST ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH MORE PCPN BY LATER TONITE...WITH PTLY-MOSTLY CLDY SKIES OTRW. VIS SAT PIX SHOW PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE CLD COVER TO THE WEST OF THE FA ATTM. BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME SHRA MOVING OUT OF THE FA (MOSTLY ACRS VT) ATTM. WK H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA LATER TONITE. NOTED WRN/CENTRAL FA IN SPC SLIGHT RISK OF SVR INTO TONITE. ENVIRONMENT ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE APPEARS TO BE MODERATE TO STRONGLY SHEARED WITH CAPES OF AOB 1000-1500 J/KG AT WET-BULB ZERO HTS OF 9-10 KFT. INSTABILITY LOOKS A LIL LESS INTENSE AND BASICALLY JUST GRAZING THE FA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. AVAILABLE MID-LVL DRY AIR ALSO LOOKS A LIL LESS THAN IT DID YESTERDAY...BUT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES LOOK A LIL HIGHER THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MAKE IT ACRS THE FA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR ANY HIR GUSTS. PREVIOUS SHIFT TOOK OUT ANY ENHANCED WORDING AND WILL CONT WITH THIS FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO A LACK OF A READILY APPARENT TRIGGER. WILL HANG ONTO CHC POPS FOR ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION BY LATER TODAY AND THE LINGERING STUFF ACRS THE ERN ZONES ATTM. GOING FCST FOR TONITE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES. WRK ZONES AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY AROUND 11 AM. LATER... MURRAY .PREV DISCUSSION...FROM 200 AM EDT FCST CHALLENGE IS CHCS FOR PRECIP TODAY THRU TUES. .SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED S/W APPROACHES OUR FA. THIS ENERGY COMBINED WITH SFC WARM FRNT HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE TS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF ENERGY NOTED IN FAST FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION. TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS ENERGY WL BCM INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW LINE OF RW/TRW FROM CYGA TO KPIT ATTM... MOVING EAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH ALONG SFC WARM FRNT. GIVEN CRNT AIRMASS AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING WOULD EXPECT TS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE AS LINE ENTERS OUR WESTERN FA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CRNT OBS SHOW TEMPS IN THE 60S WITH DWPTS ONLY IN THE L/M 50S ATTM WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. .SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUE)... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT TODAY ACRS OUR FA. GIVEN CRNT RADAR TRENDS AND PROGGED MOISTURE/LIFT...WL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZNS. OTHERWISE...BELIEVE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRNT WL QUICKLY LIFT AWAY FROM CWA BY THIS AFTN AND CWA WL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THIS IS DISPLAYED NICELY IN UPSTREAM SAT PICS ALONG WITH THE MESO-ETA PROGGED MOISTURE FIELDS...THEREFORE WL MENTION PC SKIES THIS AFTN WITH CHC POPS. SVR WX POTENTIAL TODAY LOOKS MARGINALLY GIVEN LIMITED ULVL FORCING AND BEST LLVL INSTABILITY ACRS THE SOUTHERN CPV AND SOUTHERN ZNS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW AXIS OF HIGH OCTANE AIR ADVECTING FROM HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE CPV WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND LIS AROUND -5 BY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...MESO-ETA SHOWS LIMITED LLVL SHEAR AS BEST 85H WINDS ARE ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE LLVLS. WITH EXPECTED WIND FIELD AND LLVL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED ULVL FORCING WL REMOVE ENHANCED WORDING FROM ZNS ATTM FOR TODAY. TONIGHT...THINGS WL BCM A BIT MORE INTERESTING...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LLVL WL BCM MORE STABLE. HOWEVER...STRONG 5H VORT MVS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE ULVL JET OF 100KNTS. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG 85H MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND GOOD MID LVL LIFT WL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY/CAT ACRS OUR FA. FEEL LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WL TRACK ACRS FA...BUT SVR POTENTIAL WL BE LIMITED. TODAY WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE/NVA BEHIND 5H VORT EXPECT SOME SUN AND WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 14C...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 80F CPV. TONIGHT WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS IN FCST WL MENTION TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S. TUESDAY...WEAK TROF CONTS ACRS OUR FA AS SFC COLD FRNT MVS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WL MENTION MORNING SHOWERS CENTRAL/EASTERN ZNS...BUT WL KEEP WESTERN FA DRY. SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR SHOULD BUILD INTO FA BEHIND 5H VORT AND PROVIDE CWA WITH PC SKIES. GFS TIMING OF SFC FRNT AND ULVL FORCING IS A BIT SLOWER...THEREFORE COULD SEE PRECIP BACK INTO CPV EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM (WED ONWARD)...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE TRY'S TO BUILD ACRS SE CONUS WEDS INTO THURS AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST. WL KEEP WITH CRNT FCST AND KEEP WEDS DRY...BUT WL MENTION CHC POPS WEDS NITE INTO THURS ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY AND SFC FRNT. 85H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. .AVIATION... CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO/FAR WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK GENERALLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z AND THEN ACROSS VERMONT FROM 09Z THROUGH 15Z. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS FORMING...BUT ONCE AGAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS/MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. TABER/EVENSON .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 155 PM MDT MON JUN 14 2004 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY) CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE THREAT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND FOR TUESDAY THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT... CURRENTLY WEATHER IS MILD ACROSS THE CWFA WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND A FEW CU POPPING UP OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND SOUTHERN SANGRES. LAPSE RATES ARE 7 TO 8 BUT MOISTURE STILL LACKING. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A FEW DEGREES WITH SHALLOW FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAYED WITH RUC NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AIR MASS OVER IS FAIRLY DRY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TRYING TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN BORDER FROM NEW MEXICO. WILL STICK WITH LOW POPS OVER EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS FOR EARLY EVENING. MILD OVERNIGHT AND WARM ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. FRONT PROGGED TO SLOW OR STALL ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE TUESDAY LEAVING US IN THE WARM AND DRY SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. STAYED WITH CURRENT TEMPS AS THEY ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF CURRENT GUIDANCE NUMBERS THAT HAVE AT LEAST A 10 DEGREE SPREAD ON MAX TEMPS. WILL LIKELY BE SOME LATE DAY CLOUDS THAT COULD HOLD TEMPS BACK A BIT SO A MIDDLE ROAD LOOKS BEST. AS FOR POPS ON TUESDAY PLENTY OF WARM, DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SO TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL. 700 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE PLUS 16 TO 18 COULD BE A TOUGH CAP TO BREAK WITHOUT THE BOUNDARY. BASED FORECAST ON IDEA THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z TO MOVE INTO CWFA AND KEPT THE LOW POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM... (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) MAIN FCST CHALLENGES WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUES EVENING...THEN TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT: BOTH META AND GFS/AVN MODELS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS TUES...BUT THE QUESTION IS WHEN. GFS DROPS THE COLD FRONT DOWN AROUND 06Z TIME FRAME...AND ONCE IT COMES THROUGH IT IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH THE DAY WED. META BRINGS THE FRONT DOWN A BIT QUICKER...21Z TUES TIME FRAME...BUT IT IS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW. FEEL THAT THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT IS MORE REALISTIC...BUT ALSO FEEL THAT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST SFC ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST INTO THURS. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME REST ON INCREASING POPS FOR MOST OF THE E PLAINS TO SCATTERED POTENTIAL...AND COOLED MIN T GRIDS SLIGHTLY. WEDNESDAY: WITH SFC COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR THE E PLAINS...AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER...COOLED MAX TEMP GRIDS ACROSS THE E PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE A DAY WHEN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS A WHOLE WILL BE WARMER THAN KPUB. SCATTERED POPS FOR THE E PLAINS LOOKS GOOD...AS WELL AS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SW AND CENT MTS SINCE SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING IN SOME MORE CLOUD COVER AND POP CHANCES FOR THE SW QUAD OF THE STATE. THURSDAY: AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NOTED...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER GOOD DAY FOR PRECIP. A LITTLE MORE HEATING COMBINED WITH MODIFIED SFC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD GET CONVECTION GOING DURING THE AFTN FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND E PLAINS...WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING E THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKED GOOD...WITH ONLY SIG ADJUSTMENT BEING TO COOL MAX TEMPS TO BETTER MATCH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: GFS CONTINUES WITH A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A PREDOMINANT NW FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE ROCKIES. UKMET AND EC MODELS KEEP A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE W US...BUT SEEMED A LITTLE SUSPECT. THEREFORE... DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WHICH SUGGESTS A REINFORCING COLD SURGE FOR THE STATE ON FRI. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY...WITH COOLER TEMPS REACHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON. FOR NOW ISOLATED POPS ALL AREAS LOOKS REASONABLE...AND THANKS TO COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES COOLED MAX TEMP GRIDS FRI THROUGH SUNDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES IN SOME INSTANCES... MAINLY ACROSS THE E PLAINS. THANKS TO BOU AND DDC FOR COLLABORATION. \\MOORE// && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 401 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA AND A ZONAL FLOW ACOSS NORTHERN CONUS. A 115KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX IS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CAUGHT IN THIS ZONAL FLOW RACED WEST AND CENTRAL U.P. THE SHORTWAVE GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RAPIDLY MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE IS OVER MINNESOTA FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER OVER MONTANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A BOARD RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACOSS LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE SOUTH A LOW IS OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND DRAWING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER MICHIGAN. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION. 305K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATE ASCENT OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICT AT 305K IS AROUND 75MB. ONE BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE NORTH BRANCH IS OVER EASTERN U.P. THE SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY SUNRISE. SBCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 200 J/KG OR LESS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TREK INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. MEAN SURFACE-500MB RH WILL BE AROUND 50 PERCENT. Q-VECTORS CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MARGINAL OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MVOE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MEAN SURFACE-500MB RH WILL INCREASE TO >80 PERCENT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT WILL LOWER TO 30 MB. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER OVER NORTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ETA DEPICTS ANOTHER LOW OVER JAMES BAY. GFS/ECMWF ONLY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE IN THAT AREA. ALL MODEL FAVOR A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OR SHORTWAVE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE UKMET IS WEAKEST AND SLOWEST IN THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE. PREFER THE CONSENSUS. SURFACE PROJECTIONS SHOW A LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING WEST AND RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MEAN RH SUGGEST THAT THE AIR MASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY. THUS IN SPITE OF THE INSTABILITY ALOFT...SURFACE FEATURE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER MICHIGAN. ECMWF/GFS SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE ONTARIO AND SKIRT THE U.P. ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH LOW RH. THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THAT PERIOD. ECMWF/GFS SHOWING A CLOSED LOW AND ACCOMPANY SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ROTATE SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS LOOKING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 305 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004 DISCUSSION... IN SHORT-TERM, WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. CURRENT DERECHO-TYPE/SQUALL-LINE/ MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM/LINEAR MCS/ NOW ENTERING WESTERN OHIO...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AT 40 KNOTS AND CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN 6 AND 10 PM. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH RUC AND ETA CONVECTIVE MESO-ANALYSES CONFORM TO SPC THINKING FOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PRIME THREAT DAMAGING WIND. CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...FAVOR INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. LATER TONIGHT THE RUC AND ETA SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE WEST-EAST...AND THEREFORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...WHICH COULD INDUCE LOCATIONS GETTING REPEATED DOWNPOURS. CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...AS EVIDENCED BY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...SUGGEST LOCATIONS GETTING MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A COUPLE HOURS CAN DEVELOP FLOODING. ETA AND GFS SUGGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 INTO POSSIBLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN LONG-TERM...THE ETA, GFS, AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING FAIRLY ZONAL WITH AN UPPER TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN THE FAR WEST. HENCE, THERE CAN BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. RECENT ETA AND GFS RUNS SUGGEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THIS COMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL. 00Z GFS MOS SHOWS THERE CAN BE COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE AS THE ASSOCIATED 00Z GFS SHOWED A LARGER AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW THAN WHAT THE ECMWF INDICATED. ...GIORDANO && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM (WCN) WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FOR ZONES OHC019...OHC029...OHC031...OHC067...OHC081...OHC157. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. $$ LAG pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 245 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004 .PUBLIC...AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE UPPER GA COAST ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SW CORNER OF SC. EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THIS AFTN AND WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS PER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE WITH P/WS STILL ABOVE 2 INCHES. LATEST RUC SHOWS VORT MAX MOVING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS SRN GA INTO SW SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS FOR AREA ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND CHANCE POPS FOR REMAINDER OF CWA FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGH SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF...THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE SERN STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BOTH ETA AND GFS KEEP HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS INTO WED. SEVERAL VORT MAXES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION. AFTER WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MORE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS. RAIN HAS BEEN FURTHER EAST OF THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. COULD GET MORE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT BUT ITS NOT A SURE THING. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY TO SEE IF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP OVER TATTNALL...EVANS AND BULLOCH COUNTIES. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS CAPPED IN THE 80S. BY WED SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECT WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND. && MARINE...HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC STATES WILL CONT TO SINK S TWD THE WATERS...TWD A SPOT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THU. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM SE TO SW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MINOR PRES GRADS WITHIN THE AFTN SEABREEZE WILL OCNLY PUSH WINDS TO THE 15KT AREA...BUT GENLY WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15KT THRU THE FCST PD. LACK OF GOOD FETCH OR SURGES WILL ALSO KEEP SEAS AOB 4FT. THE WEAK TROPICAL SYS OVER THE MS/AL/FL AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM FOR THE WATERS AS THE SFC HIGH AND H5 RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SYS WELL TO THE W. BY THE TIME THE TROPICAL SYS BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN H5 FLOW...SFC HIGH PRES WILL NUDGE INTO THE GULF...NEGATING ITS EFFECTS. NO HEADLINES NECESSARY. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ 30/JPC sc