AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 233 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TX AND RIDGES EWD ACROSS DIXIE. A TUTT LOW IS SPINNING OVER SW FL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VERY DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAS PUSHED INTO N FL ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAS ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING. AREA RADARS SHOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. LIKE YESTERDAY, INDIVIDUAL ECHO MOVEMENT ON RADAR IS DEPENDENT ON THE ALTITUDE OF THE PRECIPITATING CLOUD DECK. THE LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK WHERE STEERING WINDS ARE NLY. THE SHOWERS ARE LOW TOPPED WITH LOW CLOUD BASES AS WELL, AND ARE BEING STEERED IN NEARLY THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER S OF THE FL PANHANDLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NRN PLAINS. IN THE TROPICS, A WAVE IS GETTING ITSELF ORGANIZED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MON NIGHT. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES. THIS WILL HELP THE NRN U.S. FRONT TO SWEEP SEWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WWD OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS, AND THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA, NOT ALLOWING LOWER LEVELS TO DRY OUT. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, PRIMARILY FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, WE MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR TOMORROW, IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN AS THICK AS THEY WERE TODAY IN SOME AREAS. THE MID SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE THIS. .LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH TUE. THE 00/06Z GFS WAS USED FOR MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH THESE PERIODS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THAT THE 06Z DGEX WAS USED FOR WINDS FOR DAYS 7-8, MON-TUE. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEYOND DAY 4 (SAT) IN THE NRN STREAM, BUT THESE HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A STALLED FRONT OVER OR JUST S OF OUR OFFSHORE MARINE LEGS, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY SAT MORNING AS THE HIGH MOVES E INTO THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE ERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DEEP ELY FLOW, WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE IN OFF THE ATLANTIC. POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIP TYPE WILL PRIMARILY BE SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED, THE TPC OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE REACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY CLIMATOLOGY, AND RECENT GFS MODEL RUNS. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS A WEAK SYSTEM ACROSS THE YUCATAN OVER THE WEEKEND, AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN NIGHT AND MON. THE 06Z GFS ALSO SHOWS A TROPICAL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN AT ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME, BUT THE LOW EMERGES INTO THE WRN GULF AT A MORE NLY LATITUDE. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH ,THE NAM IS STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL TO OUR S, BUT FOLKS IN THE WRN GULF AREA WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS ONE. THE NEXT NAME ON THE LIST IS STAN. && .MARINE...WITH THE MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GULF LOW, THERE IS LESS DISPARITY IN THE WIND FORECASTS. WE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE RUC AND GFS/MAV. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELY FLOW WILL SET UP BEGINNING LATE FRI AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUN. FOR NOW, WE HAVE SPEEDS BELOW CAUTION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. HOWEVER, THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE LATITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL FEATURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA. && .AVIATION...WEAK AND PERSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CNTRL CWFA. MAIN CONCERN IS PERSISTENT CIGS ONE THOUSAND TO 15 HUNDRED FEET ACROSS CWFA. ISOLD TSTM LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING MAY GENERATE ISOLD MVFR EAST OF ABOVE BAND. OTHERWISE...09Z-14Z CONTINUED MVFR FOR HZ/BR AND CIGS WITH LCL IFR FOR CIGS ESPECIALLY VLD/TAE. THEN AREAS OF MVFR CIGS INTO LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 70 87 68 89 / 30 40 20 40 PANAMA CITY 73 86 72 86 / 30 40 20 30 DOTHAN 70 87 68 86 / 20 30 20 30 ALBANY 69 88 68 87 / 20 40 20 40 VALDOSTA 69 88 68 88 / 30 40 30 40 CROSS CITY 69 87 68 88 / 30 50 30 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE WX...WOOL AVIATION...BLOCK FIRE WX...GODSEY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 932 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005 .UPDATE... WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE NORTH AND INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIFT PROVIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WARRANTS AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES. WEAK SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND AS LIFT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY AS PER OMEGA VALUES ON BOTH THE RUC AND THE GFS...WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH. THUS...ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO SOUTHERN ZONES AS WELL. INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ALOFT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. INCREASED SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY...EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS OKAY FOR THE MOST PART. && .SHORT TERM...THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH VERY WEAK...APPEARS TO BE FROM NEAR CSG TO BETWEEN AHN AND AGS BUT THE DRIER SURFACE DEW POINTS LAG QUITE A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT. LAST WATER VAPOR IMAGE BEFORE ECLIPSE SHOWED DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SOME DRIER SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MIXING OCCURS. THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORT WAVE COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES. STILL APPEARS TOO STABLE FOR ANY THUNDER. SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. .LONG TERM...UNABLE TO POPULATE WITH EXTENDED GFS...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AS FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY RATHER WEAK...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONT FOR A FEW TRW SOUTH. NEW RUN OF GFS SHOWS MIDDLE GEORGIA NEVER DRYING OUT FRIDAY AND GOOD RETURN MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE STATE SATURDAY AS MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BUT MOST OF THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE CLEARED OUT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE ATL AREA. SHOULD SEE NW WINDS 8 TO 12KTS TODAY TURNING TO THE NE BY 15 TO 18Z. NO PRECIP EXPECTED. CLOUDS SHOULD STAY SCT030 TO SCT050 TODAY GOING SKC BY 00Z WED. && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ TDP ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 859 PM MDT TUE SEP 27 2005 .DISCUSSION...AM UPDATING A NUMBER OF ELEMENTS BASED LATEST TRENDS COMPARED TO NEWEST MODEL DATA. TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...ONE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AND LARGER ONE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. LEAD SHORTWAVE CAUSING ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH. INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND JET DYNAMICS CAUSING NORTHERN ACTIVITY. LATEST MODEL DATA REALLY EMPHASIZING AND MATCHING UP WELL WITH THE NORTHERN AREA. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. RUC40/RUC13 CATCHING COMPLICATED/EVOLVING SURFACE PATTERN VERY WELL. HAVE HAD A LEE TROUGH DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. ALSO A COUPLE WAVES ON THE FRONT. FRONT HAS NOT MOVED VERY FAR THIS EVENING. STILL GETTING PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPPER SYSTEM DIVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLANES. BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD START SHOVING THE FRONT THROUGH. UNTIL THEN WILL HAVE VARIABLE WINDS BECAUSE OF THE TROUGHS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL BREIFLY MIX DOWN HIGHER WINDS. HOWEVER...TRUE FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AND MAYBE CLOSER TO 12Z. PUTTING IN THE RUC13 WINDS AND GUSTS KEEPS WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL VERY NEAR 12Z. DO NOT BELIEVE ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TO TONIGHT...BUT WILL LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT A LOOK FOR EARLY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN THIRD. LEFT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ALONE AND JUST TWEEKED THE HOURLY DEWPOINTS... TEMPERATURES...AND CLOUD COVER BASED ON LASTEST OBSERVATIONS. $$ && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 930 AM MDT TUE SEP 27 2005 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY WITH MAIN CHANGES TO WIND AND TEMP FIELDS. OBS INDICATE A BIT OF A BOUNDARY SLIDING INTO THE WESTERN CWA SHIFTING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST. 12Z RUC HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO WENT IN THIS DIRECTION FOR WINDS. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH WESTERLY WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS THINK TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE MAX AND BUMPED UP ALL AREAS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. && .PREV DISCUSSION...THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SATELLITE INDICATES CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE POPS TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS OVER TEXAS TODAY BUT FLATTENS SOME TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF A LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. RIDGING COMES BACK TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER FLOW CHANGES TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SOME. SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL TODAY BUT TONIGHT THERE IS SOME UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES OVER THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120KT JET. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY AT LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE GUIDANCE POPS. THE NAM IS BETTER WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILE BUT IT HAS NOT PERFORMED WELL LATELY IN THE POPS CATEGORY. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE SINCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS BLOCKED FROM THE GULF. CONSEQUENTLY PLAN TO STAY WITH CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES DRY AS SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE FAST MOVING TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT THEN MOVES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A LEE TROUGH. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S TODAY AND THEN COOL TO THE LOWER TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE MID TEENS ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AIDED BY LOTS OF INSOLATION. IN ADDITION TO COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO LIMIT HEATING ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR BUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO THE FROST POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE AS GOOD. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY WITH A SOUTH WIND BRINGING IN WARMER AIR. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ JRM/FS ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005 .UPDATE... MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE -SHRA CHANCES/TIMING. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN ACRS THE NRN CONUS. ONE SHRTWV EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO INTO CNTRL MANITOBA AND ANOTHER OF ND WHILE THE MAIN UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS DIGGING THROUGH CNTRL MT. AT THE SFC(02Z)...A 1003 MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WRN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NW MN INTO FAR SE ND (KBDE-KBWP). SO FAR...NO PCPN OR SIGNIFICANT RADAR RETURNS WERE OBSERVED VCNTY OF THE FRONT. EXTRAPOLATION OF FRONT MOVEMENT WOULD BRING IT TO KIWD AROUND 10Z AND BARAGA/WATERSMEET NEAR 12Z. WHILE QVECTOR CONV / ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE SIGNFICANTLY LATE AHEAD OF THE ND SHRTWV...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SQUEEZE PCPN OUT OF THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMSS...PER 00Z KMPX/KINL SNDGS. SO...POPS WERE TAPERED BACK A NOTCH AND TIMING DELAYED WITH WITH PCPN CHANCES OVER MAINLY THE WRN 1/3 BTWN 07Z-11Z. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1027 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 .DISCUSSION...SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT FARTHER NORTHWEST...JUST ENTERING THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSLOT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP OVER THE CWA IN GRIDS AND NARROWED THE CORRIDOR OF PRECIP CHANCES TO JUST NEAR WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE AS IT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK BESIDES THESE AREAS. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 222 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005) SHORT TERM...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY WILL MAKE. LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED BROAD UPR RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S/LOW 80S BY 18Z. STRONG COLD FRONT NOTED MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL WYOMING...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 4+MB/3 HR AND MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ALOFT...UPR TROF WAS NOTED ADVANCING EAST INTO WESTERN MONTANA...WITH SECONDARY UPR LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. UPR SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPR RIDGE AND ADVANCING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA QUITE QUICKLY TONIGHT. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA...CLEARING MUCH OF THE CWA BY 12Z TOMORROW. AS FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO INITIATE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS UPR LEVELS COOL QUITE RAPIDLY WHILE BEST FORCING ARRIVES. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SHUT DOWN RAPIDLY BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW AS STRONG DOWNGLIDE COMMENCES. AS SUCH...EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 6+ MB/3HR DEPICTED BY SEVERAL SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT. IN RESPONSE...WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT 50KT OR SO AT H85 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z TOMORROW. GIVEN GOOD POST-FRONTAL MIXING LIKELY...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...AND EVEN WEAK PVU SIGNATURE...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR A TIME TOMORROW...HOWEVER THINKING ATTM IS THAT TIMING OF FROPA MAY INHIBIT STRONGEST WIND POTENTIAL JUST A BIT. CERTAINLY SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. TEMPS TOMORROW AFTN WILL ALSO BE TRICKY AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SFC HI PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AND SKIES REMAINING CLEAR. SETUP APPEARS VERY GOOD FOR FIRST FROST POTENTIAL FOR PRONE AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. DECIDED TO MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE FCST TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL AND ALSO HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. THE FROST POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SFC HI...WITH THE NAM/GFS/NGM SHOWING A POSITION FARTHER SOUTH INTO KANSAS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE RUC13/GEM SHOW A POSITION FARTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA WITH A STRONGER (1030MB OR SO) HIGH. THE KANSAS POSITION SEEMS A LITTLE FAST GIVEN SLOWER PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM THUS FAR...AND HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND LOWERED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. HI PRES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THURS...WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW/SLOW WARMING TREND TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH JET STREAM RUNNING ALONG US/CANADIAN BORDER...TRANSITIONS TO TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST AND RIDGING OVER THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS PUSHING THIS LOW FURTHER SOUTH. SOUTHERN LOW TRACK ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL HELP IN CONFINING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. JET STREAM BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ON SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT WITH TIMING AND FRONTAL POSITION UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ HEINLEIN ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 222 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 .SHORT TERM...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY WILL MAKE. LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED BROAD UPR RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S/LOW 80S BY 18Z. STRONG COLD FRONT NOTED MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL WYOMING...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 4+MB/3 HR AND MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ALOFT...UPR TROF WAS NOTED ADVANCING EAST INTO WESTERN MONTANA...WITH SECONDARY UPR LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. UPR SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPR RIDGE AND ADVANCING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA QUITE QUICKLY TONIGHT. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FROPA...CLEARING MUCH OF THE CWA BY 12Z TOMORROW. AS FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO INITIATE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS UPR LEVELS COOL QUITE RAPIDLY WHILE BEST FORCING ARRIVES. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SHUT DOWN RAPIDLY BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW AS STRONG DOWNGLIDE COMMENCES. AS SUCH...EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 6+ MB/3HR DEPICTED BY SEVERAL SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT. IN RESPONSE...WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT 50KT OR SO AT H85 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z TOMORROW. GIVEN GOOD POST-FRONTAL MIXING LIKELY...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...AND EVEN WEAK PVU SIGNATURE...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR A TIME TOMORROW...HOWEVER THINKING ATTM IS THAT TIMING OF FROPA MAY INHIBIT STRONGEST WIND POTENTIAL JUST A BIT. CERTAINLY SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. TEMPS TOMORROW AFTN WILL ALSO BE TRICKY AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SFC HI PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AND SKIES REMAINING CLEAR. SETUP APPEARS VERY GOOD FOR FIRST FROST POTENTIAL FOR PRONE AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. DECIDED TO MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE FCST TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL AND ALSO HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. THE FROST POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SFC HI...WITH THE NAM/GFS/NGM SHOWING A POSITION FARTHER SOUTH INTO KANSAS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE RUC13/GEM SHOW A POSITION FARTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA WITH A STRONGER (1030MB OR SO) HIGH. THE KANSAS POSITION SEEMS A LITTLE FAST GIVEN SLOWER PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM THUS FAR...AND HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND LOWERED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. HI PRES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THURS...WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW/SLOW WARMING TREND TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. .LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH JET STREAM RUNNING ALONG US/CANADIAN BORDER...TRANSITIONS TO TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST AND RIDGING OVER THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS PUSHING THIS LOW FURTHER SOUTH. SOUTHERN LOW TRACK ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL HELP IN CONFINING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. JET STREAM BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ON SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT WITH TIMING AND FRONTAL POSITION UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ LAWRENCE/WESELY ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1020 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... 00Z MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERWHELMINGLY INDICATE DRY AIR ALOFT... HOWEVER CLOUD COVER REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR TONIGHT. THE 12Z/27 NAM & 18Z/27 GFS SHOWED DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THE NAM MUCH CLOUDIER AS IT TRAPPED CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 850 MB... AND THE LATEST RUC RUNS SUPPORT THIS... HOWEVER THE 00Z/28 NAM NOW ARRIVING IS DRIER & MORE RESEMBLES THE GFS. THE MODELS DO AGREE UPON AN INCREASE IN 925-850 MB MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 295-300K ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA BY MORNING. OBSERVED DATA OFFERS OFFSETTING CLUES. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT... AND WITH THE 850 MB ANTICYCLONE JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST THE 850 MB WIND REGIME IS QUITE LIGHT THUS ANTICIPATE LITTLE ADVECTION OF ANY SORT. HOWEVER 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY LIGHT MEAN ENE FLOW UP THROUGH THE LOWER LAYERS... AND THE MOISTURE NOTED ON THE MHX SOUNDING COULD ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. CURRENT SKY FORECAST TRENDS THESE AREAS TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY MORNING... AND THAT LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. SHOULD SEE EXPANDING MAINLY MVFR FOG IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN BUT SHOULD ONLY GO TO IFR IN ISOLATED SPOTS. FORECAST LOWS MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO LOW MAINLY IN THE SOUTH BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 148 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... TNGT-WED...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PA-NEW ENGLAND REGION DOMINATES THE FLOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS FROM NE TO SE. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RESULTING IN STRATO CU FIELD MAINLY SE CWA THIS AFTERNOON CURLS AROUND TO THE W THEN N OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED...DEPICTED STRONGEST BY THE NAM AT THE 300K THETA LEVEL. THIS MAY RESULT IN STRATUS MAINLY OVER THE WRN CWA LATE TNGT AND EARLY WED. A FIELD OF STRATO CU IS ALSO POSSIBLE ATOP THE MIXED LAYER INTO WED AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH GFS SHOWS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...AND NAM MAY BE OVERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE GIVEN MAINLY OVERLAND TRAJECTORIES. LOWS 57-62. HIGHS 78-82. WED NIGHT-THU... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND CROSSES THE AREA THU AFTERNOON. SUPPORTING DYNAMICS FOR LIFT REMAIN LARGELY TO THE NORTH WHILE THERMODYNAMICS ARE MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE NAM. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW NORMAL TO THE MOUNTAINS BELOW 850 MB...AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL...THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION TO FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAVORED. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND MODEST SUPPORT FOR LIFT... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. LOWS 62-66. HIGHS 78-83. -RFG LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... COOLER THAN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND PERHAPS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGES SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THICKNESS VALUES DO NOT SUPPORT THE MAXES IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY PER GUIDANCE...CONSIDERING COPIOUS SUN AND WEAK CAA...WILL SHADE THE RANGE IN TO THE LOWER 70S. UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL PROMOTE SOME SUBSIDENCE WARMING. IN ADDITION...WE WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUN AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION... THUS PROMOTING A GENTLE WARMING TREND INTO THE MID 70S SATURDAY AND LOWER 80S SUNDAY. MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SENDS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. -MLM AVIATION... STRATO CUMULUS FIELD WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE NAM IS QUITE E-NAM-ORED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE FIELD AROUND 900 MB AND IS QUITE ADAMANT IN DEVELOPING A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER BY DAYBREAK. FEEL THAT WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO DECOUPLE AND HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY RWI AND FAY...WITH 1-3 MILES ELSEWHERE. -MLM && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 810 PM MDT TUE SEP 27 2005 .DISCUSSION...MAIN COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THOSE AREAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES MOVES THROUGH. AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MORE DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. 00Z RUC CONTINUES WITH STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE STRENGTH OF COLD ADVECTION AND THE END OF PRECIPITATION. KGGW SOUNDING HAS FREEZING LEVEL AT 5700FT MLS. RUC SHOWS TEMPERATURES NEARING CRITICAL VALUES FOR SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS...NEAR THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. COULD BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE NAM WHEN IT COMES IN BEFORE ADDING SNOW TO THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS...1500-2500 FEET AGL WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY. && .UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 930 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 .DISCUSSION... LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW EVIDENT ACROSS SE 2/3 OF CWFA THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOTED OVER FAR NE ZONES WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS JUST NORTH OF CWFA. W/CRP SOUNDING N/A..LCH INDICATE PW NEAR 1.8 INCHES AND VERTICAL PROFILE INDICATE WARM NOSE AT 750 MB THAT WOULD BE HARD TO BREAK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE OVER EXTREME EASTERN AND SE ZONES TODAY. ZFPHGX ON TRACK. NO MORNING UPDATE ANTICIPATED. 37 && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CLINGING OVERHEAD...A BIT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL MOVE A BIT SOUTHWARD DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POSSIBLY SE TX BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WEATHER PROBLEMS OF THE DAY ARE TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX TODAY AND POSSIBLY TOMORROW...THEN POPS THURSDAY AND BEYOND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LYING JUST NORTH OF SE TX EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RUC AND THE OTHER MODELS LOOKED REASONABLE IN MOVING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD A BIT INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE IMPACT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OVER THE WEST AM EXPECTING LESS CLOUD COVER AND FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS...THUS HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES. WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN CASE THE FRONT DOES NOT WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AS FAST AS THE MODEL INDICATES...BUT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE FROM HOUSTON SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. LIKE THE GFS HANDLING OF THIS EVENT. SCATTERED POPS LOOK GOOD AND WILL DISCUSS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK LATER THIS MORNING. OVER THE WEEKEND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL POSSIBLY LINK UP WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF TO BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES STARTING LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS AND MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF AND THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STAYS A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED POPS ON SUNDAY AND THEN ISOLATED POPS THEREAFTER. PL-40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS... COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS... HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA... MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER... WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON. GM...NONE. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 308 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 .DISCUSSION... AS FCST BY THE MDLS YDA, THE B.C. S/W IS DIGGING ACRS THE NRN RCKYS QUICKLY ERLY THIS MRNG. THE CYC CIRC CENTER PREVIOUSLY OVR NRN CA IS BEING LEFT BHD OVR SRN UT. THE CDFNT ASSOC WITH THE S/W HAS PUSHED INTO NWRN IA WITH PCPN SLOLY XPNDG IN TRAIL. NAM...GFS AND RUC ARE NRLY IDENTICAL ON TIMING NOW. PCPN STILL ON SCHEDULE TO END TDA. WL HAVE TMPS FALL SOMEWHAT THIS MRNG UNDER THE CLDCVR AND PCPN OVR ABT THE NWRN HALF BFR RECOVERING SOME THIS AFTN WITH CLRG. AHD OF THE PCPN AND CLDS...A NORMAL RISE THEN CAP. WNDS WL PUSH THE WND ADV CRITERIA FOR SVRL HRS AFT FROPA. CONTINUED THE THINKING ABT PTCHY FROST TMR MRNG...ALTHO WNDS WL LIKELY HOLD AOA 5KTS SO NOTHING EARTH SHATTERING HERE AS FAR AS PLANT DAMAGE. THE CLR SKY OVRNGT WL SAIL ON FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS S/W RDGG RPDLY FLYS THRU ON THU WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW TO OUR N. THE CYC CIRC IS STILL DRIFTING TWD US HOWEVER...ARRIVING IN ERN KS SAT. WITH DUE RESPECT...STILL HOLDING ON TO SLGT CHCS IN THE SW PTN SAT. BY SUNDAY...RDGG BEGINS TO BUILD OVR THE CNTRL U.S. AS A DEEP WRN TROF DIGS INTO CA...WHICH WL MAINTAIN TMPS ABV NORMAL SOMEWHAT. IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS...WX WL PROBABLY TURN WET BY MIDWEEK AS THE LRG TROF NEARS. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MYERS ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECETD WWA SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 345 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 .DISCUSSION... FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HAVE BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IN THE GRIDS. FRONT IS PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED. AT 08Z IT WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL NEB INTO FAR NORTHEAST CO...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL KS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH MT TOWARDS THE NEB PANHANDLE...WHILE THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTS EAST ACROSS UT. ONE CONCERN IS HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. THE NAM AND RUC SHOW A 50-55KT 850 JET BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS RIGHT AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE MORNING. DO NOT THINK WIND SPEEDS WILL MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WHOLE AREA BUT AM CONCERNED THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND CNK. AFTER COORDINATING WITH ICT AND GID...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE FAR WESTERN THREE COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE BETTER DYNAMICS UP THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND SHORTWAVE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN CAP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 750MB TEMPS AROUND 14C. BY THE TIME THERE IS ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THE CAP...THE FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF THE EVENT TO BE RATHER FAST THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACCUMULATION. DO NOT SEE A LARGE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE RATHER TRICKY TO NAIL DOWN FROM HOUR TO HOUR. THINK THAT TEMPS COULD CONTINUE TO FALL BELOW MORNING LOWS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. ON THE OTHER HAND...EAST CENTRAL KS SHOULD SEE A QUICK WARM UP THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN TEMPS SHOULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE CAA INCREASES. WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL WARM UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK THE OVERALL HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 60S. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THINKING THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CUT OFF LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE AREA RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION...AND THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THE WAVE MAY BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE FOR NOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE DAY SHIFT CAN LOOK AT THE LATEST DATA FOR FINE TUNING. OTHERWISE...COOL DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT LOOK ON TARGET AND DID NOT ADJUST THEM MUCH. MOST AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS /MHK AIRPORT/ DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. TEMPS MODERATE SOME FOR THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, BUT SURFACE RIDGE WILL STILL BE NOSING INTO EASTERN KS DURING THE DAY...SO KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 8AM UNTIL 3PM FOR REPUBLIC...CLOUD AND OTTAWA COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KS. && $$ WOLTERS ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 530 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2005 .UPDATE... WATCHING FOG TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. FFT CONTINUES AT 1/4SM WITH PATCHES OF DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED EARLIER BY STATE POLICE IN THE KENTUCKY RIVER VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS HIGHLIGHTING FOG IN THAT AREA FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE INTO THE CAPITAL CITY. GOES IR FOG PRODUCT ALSO SHOWING A LIKELY AREA OF FOG IN THE SALT RIVER VALLEY OF HARDIN/BULLITT/NELSON COUNTIES AND IN SPOTS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. ELIZABETHTOWN AWOS REPORTING 1/2SM AS OF 520 AM EDT. WILL UPDATE THE ZFP/GRIDS TO EXPAND PATCHY FOG WORDING TO ALL ZONES...MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS. CS .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)... CLR SKIES OVER THE CWA AS OF 0630 UTC WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KY RIVER VALLEY NEAR FFT OTHERWISE VSBYS ARE UNRESTRICTED. EXPECTING SOME AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN HZ/BR THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH LOCALIZED VSBYS LESS THAN 1SM IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS (SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS). WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE PERHAPS JUST TOO MIXY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. SKIES SHOULD START OFF SUNNY THIS MORNING...WITH FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS AFTN PER 00 UTC NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SFC HIGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF POTENT UPPER TROF DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS TROF AND THE ASSOC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BACK INTO LAST WEEK. FOLLOWING THE NAM SOLN ALONG WITH THE FSL-RUC AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES...SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO ROLL THROUGH THE CWA SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A BAND OF STRONG LIFT JUST BEHIND THE SFC FRONT HELPING PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS. DECENT DYNAMICS MAY OVERCOME RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY TO YIELD SOME ISLTD THUNDER CELLS TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT FOR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE FROPA...WINDS COULD GUST UPWARD OF 20KTS...SOMETHING THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE 12 UTC TAF ISSUANCE LATER ON THIS MORNING. HPC QPF OF 0.1-0.3 INCHES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. WITH SUCH AS PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF...PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE NAM IS PRODUCING A BAND OF LOW STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CIGS ~1KFT...SOMETHING TO WATCH IN FUTURE RUNS. CS .LONG TERM (THURSDAY-TUESDAY)... COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY EAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH STRONG AREA OF COOL CANADIAN HI PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. WITH THE STRONG CAA THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. COOL MORN LOWS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST...A FEW UPPER 30S WILL NOT BE A SURPRISE. WITH THE GOOD RAD COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE HI MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME FRIDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...YET WILL STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. LARGE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...MOST OF THE JET ENERGY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. MODELS AREA HINTING AT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND AND MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY REACHING THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY...WITH ENSEMBLES NOT SHOWING BETTER THAN CLIMO MOS PRECIP VALUES. IF TREND CONTINUES WITH OPER MODELS MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH PRECIP MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE ON SUNDAY. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER...THESE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS CONTINUES. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EACH DAY.--SCHOTT && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 245 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)... CLR SKIES OVER THE CWA AS OF 0630 UTC WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KY RIVER VALLEY NEAR FFT OTHERWISE VSBYS ARE UNRESTRICTED. EXPECTING SOME AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN HZ/BR THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH LOCALIZED VSBYS LESS THAN 1SM IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS (SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS). WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE PERHAPS JUST TOO MIXY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. SKIES SHOULD START OFF SUNNY THIS MORNING...WITH FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS AFTN PER 00 UTC NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SFC HIGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF POTENT UPPER TROF DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS TROF AND THE ASSOC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BACK INTO LAST WEEK. FOLLOWING THE NAM SOLN ALONG WITH THE FSL-RUC AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES...SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO ROLL THROUGH THE CWA SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A BAND OF STRONG LIFT JUST BEHIND THE SFC FRONT HELPING PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS. DECENT DYNAMICS MAY OVERCOME RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY TO YIELD SOME ISLTD THUNDER CELLS TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT FOR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE FROPA...WINDS COULD GUST UPWARD OF 20KTS...SOMETHING THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE 12 UTC TAF ISSUANCE LATER ON THIS MORNING. HPC QPF OF 0.1-0.3 INCHES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. WITH SUCH AS PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF...PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE NAM IS PRODUCING A BAND OF LOW STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CIGS ~1KFT...SOMETHING TO WATCH IN FUTURE RUNS. CS .LONG TERM (THURSDAY-TUESDAY)... COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY EAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH STRONG AREA OF COOL CANADIAN HI PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. WITH THE STRONG CAA THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. COOL MORN LOWS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST...A FEW UPPER 30S WILL NOT BE A SURPRISE. WITH THE GOOD RAD COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE HI MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME FRIDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...YET WILL STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. LARGE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...MOST OF THE JET ENERGY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. MODELS AREA HINTING AT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND AND MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY REACHING THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY...WITH ENSEMBLES NOT SHOWING BETTER THAN CLIMO MOS PRECIP VALUES. IF TREND CONTINUES WITH OPER MODELS MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH PRECIP MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE ON SUNDAY. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER...THESE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS CONTINUES. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EACH DAY.--SCHOTT && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 349 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE AREAL EXTENT AND DENSITY OF FOG THIS MORNING...AND EXTENT...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT TODAY. FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATION OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SGF...AND CALL TO STONE COUNTY CONFIRMED NEAR ZERO VISBYS THERE. WILL MONITOR FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO TO SEE HOW MUCH THIS EXPANDS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE COVERAGE WARRANTS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOR STARTERS...WILL INCLUDE FOG IN THE GRIDS WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 1/2 MILE OVER ABOUT THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE CONSISTENT PORTRAYAL OF STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS DIGGING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER SRN NEVADA DOES APPEAR TO BE SLOWING UP AND IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM THE NRN STREAM WAVE. THE NRN SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD AS IT ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE 500 MB RECORD SETTING HOT DOME OVER TEXAS. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ARE CURRENTLY EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WITH PLENTY OF CGS...AND THIS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT. PREFRONTAL ETABUFR CAPES WITH A MODEST 78/66 APPROACH 1500 J/KG. PREDAWN EXPANDING STRATUS OVER SRN MO AND NRN AR COULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...BUT THINK THAT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL BE MIXED OUT AS LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW INCREASES...AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO POPS GRIDS. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL FAST BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HAVE CANNED THE DIURNAL CURVE AND GONE WITH HOURLY EDITED GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH. LOWERED TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT ...AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FROST ON THE ROOFTOPS IN TYPICALLY COLDER LOCALES OF THE EASTERN CWA. CUTOFF LOW SLOGS SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AND LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED. .AVIATION... STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT DENSE FOG FORMATION...BUT LATEST BUFKIT NAM/RUC SOUNDING FOG PARAMETERS FAVOR STRATUS/LIGHT FOG. IN ADDITION...CURRENT CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRATUS LAYER ARE AROUND 2500 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES. FOR NOW PUT SOME MVFR VSBYS AT JLN...AND A 2SM TEMPO GROUP AT KSGF. COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DID CONTINUE THE HINT OF CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT AS CB WORDING REMAINS IN BOTH TERMINAL FORECASTS BEGINNING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER...THUNDER WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO LATER TERMINAL FORECASTS. SAW && SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 129 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM... TWO MAIN WEATHER STORIES IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR THE FIRST PART OF FORECAST PERIOD...FOCUS WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR FOG. HAVE INCLUDED WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE SOILS ARE MORE MOIST AND GROUND TEMPS ARE COOLER. NAM BUFR SOUNDING FOR JOPLIN SUGGESTS MORE MIXING MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF FRONT IN OUR WRN CWA...SO DECIDED TO GO WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE WRN HALF OF AREA. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVECTION FOG WITH THE FRONT ENTERING THE AREA...BUT THE STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SGF CWA. FORECAST FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR WED. NAM DEPICTS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME INTERACTING WITH FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CWA NEAR 18Z. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD FOR EARLY TO MID AFTN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR AREA BY 0Z THURS...AND USHER IN LOW TEMPS FOR PREDAWN THURS IN THE UPPER 40S. THIS DROP IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE FURTHER ENCOURAGED BY AN AREA OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND POTENTIAL FOR NIGHTTIME CLEARING. LONG RANGE... ONE MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS PROGGED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRI NITE....AND THEN SLIDES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. BEST OMEGA VALUES AND VORTICITY ATTM LOOK TO REMAIN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND 12Z GFS RUN KEEPS MOST QPF OUT OF THE OZARKS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM FRI NITE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP IN FORECAST FROM EARLY SAT MRNG THRU SUN MRNG. ALSO HAVE TWEAKED QPF DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR SAT INTO SUN. LITTLE CHANGE TO REMAINDER OF EXT FORECAST. AFTER SUN...UPPER LEVELS OVER THE OZARKS LOOK TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY. DSA/SCHULTZ .AVIATION... STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT DENSE FOG FORMATION...BUT LATEST BUFKIT NAM/RUC SOUNDING FOG PARAMETERS FAVOR STRATUS/LIGHT FOG. IN ADDITION...CURRENT CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRATUS LAYER ARE AROUND 2500 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES. FOR NOW PUT SOME MVFR VSBYS AT JLN...AND A 2SM TEMPO GROUP AT KSGF. COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DID CONTINUE THE HINT OF CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT AS CB WORDING REMAINS IN BOTH TERMINAL FORECASTS BEGINNING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER...THUNDER WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO LATER TERMINAL FORECASTS. SAW && SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 325 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2005 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS. GOES IMAGERY INDICATES AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER ASSOCIATED WITH PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO CO AS MUCH DRIER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD WESTERN UT. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER CO WHERE LEADING EDGE OF PVA ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH NOSE OF 250MB JET INTERACTS WITH THIS AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. FURTHER WEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND AS IT DOES SO A PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN SHORTWAVE WILL ESSENTIALLY PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE A RESIDUAL SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IVOF THE UT/AZ BORDER REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...WHILE FURTHER NORTH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS ID WILL INFLUENCE NORTHERN UT TODAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER NAM SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN UT TROUGH...AND AS A RESULT HAVE RETAINED CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER MT WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD GRADUALLY SETTING OVER NORTHERN UT BY THURSDAY. RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING INDICES. ANTICIPATE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH PERHAPS A VERY GRADUAL WARNING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY AS AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPS. UPPER LOW ALONG UT/AZ BORDER EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AXIS OF MAIN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS ZONAL FLOW TO BUCKLE ACROSS EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RUN TO RUN TEMPORAL CONTINUITY REGARDING THIS FEATURE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...WITH NEW EC MODEL SLOWING ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM BY ABOUT A DAY OR SO (TUESDAY)...WHILE 00Z GFS AND UK SPED UP TIMING TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. HAVE SIDED WITH SLOWER SOLUTION AND RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. && .FIRE WEATHER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UTAH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS WITH LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS AND DECREASING MIXING HEIGHTS RESULTING IN CLEARING INDICES BELOW 500 PARTICULARLY IN VALLEYS AND BASINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPROVING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. CLEARING INDICES ACROSS SOUTHERN UT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...SEE SLCTAFSLC. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ SEAMAN ut AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1045 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2005 .SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW OVER THE CWFA. THE 12Z BMX AND FFC SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED INVERSION AROUND 600-650 MB REFLECTING THIS. THE 12Z TAE SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHTLY BETTER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING. IN SPITE OF THIS...THERE IS A PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW SPINNING BETWEEN BUOYS 42039 AND 42040. BASED ON THE 20+ KT WINDS AND 4-5 FT SEAS REPORTED AT BUOY 42039 EARLIER...WE UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST TO INCLUDE EXERCISE CAUTION WORDING FOR OUR WRN WATERS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... THE RUC ADVERTISES THE LOW TO MOVE W AND WEAKEN TODAY. IMPLEMENTED THIS SOLUTION INTO THE GRIDS. DID NOT SEE ANY REASON TO CHANGE THE POP AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS...SO ZONES WERE BE LEFT ALONE. && .MARINE... 14Z WINDS AND SEAS WERE STILL IN THE SCEC RANGE AT 42039. WILL KEEP SCEC GOING FOR THE WRN WATERS...BUT THIS CAN LIKELY BE DROPPED FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. && FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS. && .AVIATION... AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLIFR CONDITIONS AT DHN...THINGS ARE MVFR AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING. OTHER SITES BARELY DROPPED INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS MORNING. AFTER SCT MVFR CONDS FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON... WILL GO WITH MVFR CONDS THURSDAY MRNG...WITH PERHAPS MORE PESSIMISTIC CONDS AT DHN. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ TJT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2005 .MORNING UPDATE... MADE LATE MORNING UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG WORDING FROM ZONES. STILL EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AREA AND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MODELS AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOVING NORTH FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE. .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)... CLR SKIES OVER THE CWA AS OF 0630 UTC WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KY RIVER VALLEY NEAR FFT OTHERWISE VSBYS ARE UNRESTRICTED. EXPECTING SOME AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN HZ/BR THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH LOCALIZED VSBYS LESS THAN 1SM IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS (SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS). WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE PERHAPS JUST TOO MIXY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. SKIES SHOULD START OFF SUNNY THIS MORNING...WITH FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS AFTN PER 00 UTC NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SFC HIGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF POTENT UPPER TROF DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS TROF AND THE ASSOC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BACK INTO LAST WEEK. FOLLOWING THE NAM SOLN ALONG WITH THE FSL-RUC AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES...SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO ROLL THROUGH THE CWA SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A BAND OF STRONG LIFT JUST BEHIND THE SFC FRONT HELPING PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS. DECENT DYNAMICS MAY OVERCOME RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY TO YIELD SOME ISLTD THUNDER CELLS TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT FOR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE FROPA...WINDS COULD GUST UPWARD OF 20KTS...SOMETHING THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE 12 UTC TAF ISSUANCE LATER ON THIS MORNING. HPC QPF OF 0.1-0.3 INCHES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. WITH SUCH AS PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF...PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE NAM IS PRODUCING A BAND OF LOW STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CIGS ~1KFT...SOMETHING TO WATCH IN FUTURE RUNS. CS .LONG TERM (THURSDAY-TUESDAY)... COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY EAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH STRONG AREA OF COOL CANADIAN HI PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. WITH THE STRONG CAA THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. COOL MORN LOWS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST...A FEW UPPER 30S WILL NOT BE A SURPRISE. WITH THE GOOD RAD COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE HI MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME FRIDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...YET WILL STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. LARGE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...MOST OF THE JET ENERGY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. MODELS AREA HINTING AT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND AND MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY REACHING THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY...WITH ENSEMBLES NOT SHOWING BETTER THAN CLIMO MOS PRECIP VALUES. IF TREND CONTINUES WITH OPER MODELS MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH PRECIP MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE ON SUNDAY. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER...THESE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS CONTINUES. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EACH DAY.--SCHOTT && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1220 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2005 .DISCUSSION... FRONT DRAPED FM JAMES BAY ACROSS CNTRL UPR MI AND SW INTO N MO. SHOWERS MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT FM S MN INTO W HALF OF WI AND UPR MI. ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION DID DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT WHERE THETA-E ADVECTION WAS MAXIMIZED. CURRENTLY THIS LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHES FM SE LK SUPERIOR TO MUNISING/ESCANABA AND SW INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY. AS RUC 13 DEPICTED VERY WELL...THE TWO AREAS OF RAIN ARE BEGINNING TO MERGE AND BY MID AFTN EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVR ALL OF CWA. ALREADY HAVE DONE TWO SETS OF UPDATES TO GRIDS AND ZFPMQT. OVERALL GOING FCST IS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING NW WINDS/COOLER AIR FILTERING ACROSS ALL CWA BY EARLY EVENING. TEMPS ALREADY FALLING TO AROUND 50 ON KEWEENAW. GENERALLY SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S FAR W INTERIOR AND AROUND 50 FOR CNTRL ZONES. STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED OUT EAST WHERE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATEST. GALES AT LEAST IN GUSTS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVR W LK SUPERIOR. PK GUST AT CMX/P59 THUS FAR IS AROUND 30 MPH...BUT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BY LATE AFTN PK GUSTS SHOULD RISE TOWARD 40 MPH. AS FOR THE RAIN...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF LATE IN THE FAR WEST (IWD TO ONT) AS DRIER AIR SEEN ON 12Z RAOB FM INL AND TAMDARS PUSHES IN. REGIONAL RADAR AND OBS INDICATE BACK EDGE OF RAIN IS NEAR ASX ATTM. SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS S MN WILL ROTATE NEWD INTO WI THIS AFTN WHICH SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS OVR CNTRL AND EAST GOING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY THE DRYING WILL KICK IN FOR CNTRL ZONES ALSO AND THEN ATTN WILL TURN TO POSSIBLE LK EFFECT LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY AIR AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FM THE WEST MAY HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT ON COVERAGE OF LK EFFECT SHOWERS FM THE FAR W INTO THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT. WILL LOOK AT THIS FOR THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED AFTN PACKAGE AND MAKE ANY CHANGES THEN. && .PREV DISCUSSION FOR LATER PERIODS (ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT THIS MORNING)... BEHIND THE FRONT SURFACE OBS ACROSS MANITOBA INDICATE COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS AND DEWPTS IN THE 30S. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WED EVENING...AND THERE IS SOME MERIT TO THAT AS 00Z SOUNDING FROM THE PAS, MANITOBA INDICATES SOME DECENT DRYING BELOW 900MB. THE OPEN TROUGH NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM PREVENTS ANY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE DRY AIR MAY CURTAIL THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CWA AND LIMIT COVERAGE TO SCATTERED OVER THE WEST AND INLAND AREAS OF THE CWA...WITH NUMEROUS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THE LONGER FETCH AND RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE EASTERN CWA MAY ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD AIR ADVECTING IN MAY MISS THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES IN THE FORECAST...THE SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW DRY AIR IN THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH RANGE ABOVE THE INVERSION AND ALSO THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY LOW LEVELS. ANY FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WESTERN CWA...AND SHOULD OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING WHEN COLD POOL/1305M THICKNESSES COINCIDE. THE FROZEN PRECIP MAY BE MORE OF A SNOW GRAIN/SLEET FORM DUE TO THE LACK OF DENDRITIC GROWTH CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE DRYING...BUT A FEW FLAKES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER/MORE VIGOROUS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE THU AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BACKS WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW...SOME EARLY COOLING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA...THEN EXPECTING TEMPS TO WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD CREATE A PLEASANT DAY FOR FRI AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW...WHICH MODELS INDICATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN...HOWEVER HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MAY KEEP THE ASSOCIATED BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MICHIGAN MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLA PREV DISCUSSION...LAROSA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 951 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2005 .DISCUSSION...A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CAROLINA AND GEORGIA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST NAM AND RUC SHOWS THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY PULLING NORTH ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION... EXCEPT FOR TERRAIN FEATURES. WILL INCREASE POPS TO 30-40 PERCENT EXTREME SOUTH AND 20 PERCENT FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS FOR TODAY. A FAIRLY DECENT COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE WITH FROPA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 09-12Z TIME-FRAME. FAIRLY DECENT LIFT WITH FRONT. GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF SYSTEM TODAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER JET INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH...I EXPECT FAIRLY SOLID COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FROPA. MAY INCREASE POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT TO CAT FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE. HAVE A GOOD DAY... && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DH tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1045 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 .UPDATE... COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LARGE POST FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR FALL A FEW DEGREES. THE BIGGEST TEMPERATURE CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...WHERE LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND THESE SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE RAIN BEGINS. LATEST RUC SHOWING PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RAIN ON TRACK TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EVENING. ONLY MAKING MINOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST...BUMPED UP POPS AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL SEND UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS OUT BETWEEN 1115 AND 1130 AM. .PREV DISCUSSION .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TODAY...WITH RAIN...WIND...AND COLDER AIR. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST...THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXITING EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON. STRONG QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WAVE IN THE 500:300 MB LAYER...FROM 15-00Z TODAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK STRONG AND DEEP...IN THE 295:315 K LAYERS...MOST FAVORABLE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ISN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE INTO THIS STRENGTHENING SYSTEM...WITH THE MAIN SATURATION //PER THE RH FIELDS AND TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS// MOSTLY POST FRONT. MODELED QPF IS PLACED HERE AS A RESULT. IN ADDITION TO THE ALREADY AMPLE FORCING...A CURVED 300 MB JET WILL ENHANCE THE AVAILABLE LIFT. SO...EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST/NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT...TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER TO THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING...BUT THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ALREADY BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS INDICATED...VIA THE SBCAPE/MUCAPES...BUT 0-6 KM SHEAR IS HEFTY...AND WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN THOUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN POST FRONT...LEADING TO WINDY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP FUNNEL SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON INTO THE REGION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 14C THIS MORNING...TO 2C BY 00Z TONIGHT. EXPECT LITTLE REBOUND FROM THIS MORNING/S LOWS AS A RESULT...WITH MOST TEMPERATURES LIKELY STEADY TO EVEN FALLING TODAY. BASICALLY...NOT A REAL NICE DAY FOR THE REGION. BY TONIGHT...A SFC HIGH WILL ALREADY START TO BUILD IN...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT 12Z THU. THE HIGH...ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING. THE WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES...LIGHTER WINDS...AND FLUX OF COLD AIR SOUTH...THU MORNING LOWS COULD REACH FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID 30S IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WITH CLEAR SKIES...WOULD NORMAL LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST. A POTENTIAL DRAWBACK TO CONSIDER THOUGH...WILL THE WIND SLACK OFF ENOUGH? BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY GOOD INVERSION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC...BUT 15-20 KTS JUST OFF THE "DECK" //ABOUT 950 MB//. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE AMOUNT OF TIME WHERE THE WINDS AND SKY WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FROST FORMATION. THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY EARLY EVENING...SO THAT SHOULD NOT BE AN INHIBITOR. HOWEVER...THE WINDS AREN/T ANTICIPATED TO BECOME "LIGHT" UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREFERABLY...THE HIGH CENTER WOULD BE DEAD OVERHEAD...AND FROST WOULD BE A GIVEN. WITH THE SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT...ITS A BIT MURKY. BUT...CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED LOWS FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS...BELIEVE PATCHY FROST IN AT LEAST THE SHELTERED AND LOW LYING AREAS IS LIKELY. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND COOL...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL START SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN SET UP FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS RESULTING. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BETTER AGREEMENT THIS GO AROUND WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT NOTHING DRAMATIC. A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE STILL PROGGED TO PASS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER WAVE WELL NORTH...PER THE EC/S PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THE OTHER TO THE SOUTH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT/SAT NIGHT...BUT WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTH...THIS PASSAGE LOOKS "DRY". AS FOR TEMPS...THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SOME WARMING...AND HIGHS/LOWS LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ RIECK/JR wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 215 PM EST WED SEP 28 2005 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN ILLINOIS. TIMING OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. LAPS DATA INDICATING LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ATTM DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE MUCH. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS BEGINNING IN THE WEST THIS EVENING AND KEEP A CHANCE MENTION REMAINDER OF CWA THEN PROGRESS CAT POPS ACROSS THE CWA WITH BULK OF PRECIP EXPECTED OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT WILL BRING IN GUSTY NW WINDS TONIGHT. AGREE WITH GRR IN SEEING RUC13 SFC GUSTS UP TO 50KT NOSING INTO BERRIEN COUNTY AROUND 03Z AND SLIDING EASTWARD OVER TOWARD HILLSDALE AT 06Z. FEELING RIGHT NOW IS THAT BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF US SO WILL BUMP UP GUSTS IN NORTHERN TIER ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKESHORE BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP BELOW ADV. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT WILL YIELD DELTA T OF AROUND 20C AND GIVE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE VERY DRY LAYER FROM 850-700MB WORKING IN THURSDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS THEN DRY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FCST ON TEMPS LOOKING GOOD WITH LOWS NEAR 50F AND THURSDAY HIGHS RUNNING 10F BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM... THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN IT WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALL LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT. SOME WIND WILL STAY UP ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST THERE. OTHERWISE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT ELSEWHERE ...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FROST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN FLOW AND A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND WITH THE MAV/MET MOS VALUES...WHICH YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S EAST TO THE LOWER 70S WEST. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPR LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND WHILE A MEAN MID LVL TROF SETS UP OFF THE WRN UNITED STATES COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE A WEAK EMBEDDED S/WV...WHICH IS FCST TO EJECT OUT OF THE SWRN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. AS 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AROUND THE +14 DEGREE C VALUE...HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS MID LVL RIDGING ANCHORED ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH NO CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARM/ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. && .AVIATION... MAIN CONCERNS THIS TAF ISSUANCE CONTINUES TO BE WINDS AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT SIMILAR TRENDS AS PREVIOUS TAFS WITH TIMING OF PRECIP...BUT HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM SBN AS POST-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND TIME OF DAY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. WENT WITH PREVAILING LIGHT SHOWERS AND TRIED TO FINE-TUNE TEMPO GROUP FOR PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WITH IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CEILINGS. BUMPED UP SBN WIND GUSTS TO 35KT FOR A COUPLE HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA. MAY STILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SBN AREA EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH 3KFT CLOUD DECK. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING MICHIGAN CITY TO ST JOSEPH 21Z WED TIL 19Z THU. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...04 in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1128 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 .DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION. OVERALL TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH COLD FRONT NOW NEARING SOUTHEASTERN IA. WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST WITH BANDED PRECIPITATION MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDS BACK TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CUMULUS DEVELOPING WHERE ANY SUN HAS SHONE. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS AND HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO SLIGHT OVER NW THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH. LOOKING TO TONIGHT...CHILLY AIR STILL ON THE WAY WITH FROST CHANCES WEST AND NORTH. /REV .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AS FCST BY THE MDLS YDA, THE B.C. S/W IS DIGGING ACRS THE NRN RCKYS QUICKLY ERLY THIS MRNG. THE CYC CIRC CENTER PREVIOUSLY OVR NRN CA IS BEING LEFT BHD OVR SRN UT. THE CDFNT ASSOC WITH THE S/W HAS PUSHED INTO NWRN IA WITH PCPN SLOLY XPNDG IN TRAIL. NAM...GFS AND RUC ARE NRLY IDENTICAL ON TIMING NOW. PCPN STILL ON SCHEDULE TO END TDA. WL HAVE TMPS FALL SOMEWHAT THIS MRNG UNDER THE CLDCVR AND PCPN OVR ABT THE NWRN HALF BFR RECOVERING SOME THIS AFTN WITH CLRG. AHD OF THE PCPN AND CLDS...A NORMAL RISE THEN CAP. WNDS WL PUSH THE WND ADV CRITERIA FOR SVRL HRS AFT FROPA. CONTINUED THE THINKING ABT PTCHY FROST TMR MRNG...ALTHO WNDS WL LIKELY HOLD AOA 5KTS SO NOTHING EARTH SHATTERING HERE AS FAR AS PLANT DAMAGE. THE CLR SKY OVRNGT WL SAIL ON FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS S/W RDGG RPDLY FLYS THRU ON THU WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW TO OUR N. THE CYC CIRC IS STILL DRIFTING TWD US HOWEVER...ARRIVING IN ERN KS SAT. WITH DUE RESPECT...STILL HOLDING ON TO SLGT CHCS IN THE SW PTN SAT. BY SUNDAY...RDGG BEGINS TO BUILD OVR THE CNTRL U.S. AS A DEEP WRN TROF DIGS INTO CA...WHICH WL MAINTAIN TMPS ABV NORMAL SOMEWHAT. IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS...WX WL PROBABLY TURN WET BY MIDWEEK AS THE LRG TROF NEARS. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MYERS/REV ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 430 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2005 .SHORT TERM... A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS ON THE WAY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT FLOWS THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FRONT IS JUST MOVING OUT OF ERN WI AND WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT RELATED TO STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. HAVEN'T SEEN ANY THUNDER IN THIS BAND THOUGH... SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FCST. ONE CONCERN HOWEVER IS THAT THUNDER COULD BE GENERATED OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE THE COLD AIR POURS IN AND CREATES DELTA T/S AROUND 20C. THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE WINDS. LATEST RUC/ETA GUIDANCE IS REALLY CRANKING UP THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS OF 45 KTS ARE INDICATED AT 3K FEET AFTER 00Z IN THE WEST AND TOWARD 03Z IN THE EAST. SUSPECT IT WILL NOT BE HARD TO TAP INTO THIS WITH SHOWERS AROUND... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE WHERE THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE DEEPER. HAVE THEREFORE POSTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS IN THE EAST... BUT THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE MAIN SFC LOW IS NOT PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE UNTIL AFTER 03Z...IN THE LAKE HURON VICINITY. DEPENDING ON MUCH THIS LOW DEEPENS (AND WHERE/HOW QUICK)... COULD SEE NEEDING SOME WIND HEADLINES EVENTUALLY IN THE EAST FOR AWHILE AS WELL. WILL CARRY GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR NOW. THE BAND OF FGEN SHOWERS GRADUALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT... BUT COLD ADVECTION/LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS PERSIST BEHIND IT. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING... BUT SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGING AND WAA QUICKLY DEVELOP. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THRU 12Z SAT... LOOKS QUIET WITH A SURFACE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A DRY/MILD SW FLOW OVER SW LWR MI. GENERALLY JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. .LONG TERM... SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL SIGNAL A WARMING TREND BY THE WEEKEND. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE SITTING OFF THE EAST COAST...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO PUMP IN WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TOO DEEP INITIALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL KEEP IT DRY. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO 70 INTO MID WEEK. MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM ST. JOSEPH TO MANISTEE. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES OF THE GRR CWFA. && $$ MEADE JK mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 410 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 .UPDATE... CAP HAS BROKEN ALONG THE FRONT WITH ML CAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG WITH STRONGEST INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MO NEAR CASSVILLE. AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM CASSVILLE TO ROLLA. BULK SHEAR 30-40KT SUPPORTING ROTATING UPDRAFTS. LOCALIZED AREA OF WIND DAMAGE FROM CRAWFORD COUNTY EAST TO EVERTON AREA...WITH AN UNCONFIRMED REPORT OF A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR GOLDEN CITY. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN TWO BANDS: ONE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CWA...AND EAST OF SPRINGFIELD ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. STORMS EAST OF SPRINGFIELD DEVELOPING IN THE BEST INSTABILITY RIGHT NOW...SO EXPECT THEM TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BEST CHANCES FOR SUPERCELLS/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CASSVILLE TO BOLIVAR TO SALEM...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CHANCES AS YOU GO NORTH. MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDS/HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT A TORNADO GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS...BUT SFC WIND IS VEERING SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA BY 7-8 PM. DSA && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 210 PM... SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND THEN COOL TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST MO INTO WEST CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHEAST KS AND IS RACING EAST AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. EXPANSIVE STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT 100 MB ML CAPES FROM THE RUC REACHING UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG IN A NARROW BAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SE KS AND EXTREME SW MO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL FORCING IS ABLE TO PUNCH THROUGH WEAK-MODERATE CAP. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT LONGER LIVED ORGANIZED STORM UPDRAFTS. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE MAIN STORM THREAT SINCE STORMS ARE LIKELY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH STORM EVOLUTION FOR A POSSIBLE WIND THREAT AS WELL. CELL IN CRAWFORD COUNTY KS LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING. QUICK SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE SHOULD RADIATE OUT NICELY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GFS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD GET WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S IN SOME AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. USUAL COLDER LOW SPOTS MAY EVEN TOUCH UPPER 30S UNDER CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS. MAINTAINED SMALL POPS AS UPPER LOW NOW OVER UT/AZ WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. ANOTHER DEEP 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH THE APPROACH OF THAT UPPER SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. DSA && .AVIATION... FOR 18Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERNS IS WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL LEAD TO HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING 25-30KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. IZZI && SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 210 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND THEN COOL TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST MO INTO WEST CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHEAST KS AND IS RACING EAST AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. EXPANSIVE STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT 100 MB ML CAPES FROM THE RUC REACHING UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG IN A NARROW BAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SE KS AND EXTREME SW MO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL FORCING IS ABLE TO PUNCH THROUGH WEAK-MODERATE CAP. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT LONGER LIVED ORGANIZED STORM UPDRAFTS. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE MAIN STORM THREAT SINCE STORMS ARE LIKELY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH STORM EVOLUTION FOR A POSSIBLE WIND THREAT AS WELL. CELL IN CRAWFORD COUNTY KS LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING. QUICK SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE SHOULD RADIATE OUT NICELY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GFS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD GET WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S IN SOME AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. USUAL COLDER LOW SPOTS MAY EVEN TOUCH UPPER 30S UNDER CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS. MAINTAINED SMALL POPS AS UPPER LOW NOW OVER UT/AZ WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. ANOTHER DEEP 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH THE APPROACH OF THAT UPPER SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. DSA .AVIATION... FOR 18Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERNS IS WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL LEAD TO HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING 25-30KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. IZZI && SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 412 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... RATHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXTRAPOLATION OF WHERE THUNDER IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING WOULD ONLY BRING IT INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER WITH LOWER TO MID 60 DEW POINTS ADVECTING NORTHWARD AND DYNAMICS INVOLVED BELIEVE THAT THERE COULD BE THUNDER ACROSS ANY PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHEST WINDS SPEEDS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE ZONES BY DAYBREAK. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD BE ABUNDANT TO START THE DAY BUT DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FACTOR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... AT 500 MB A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN AS A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS IN THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION IN THE WEST. EXTENDED MODELS ARE ALL TRYING TO BRING A WAVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. FOR THE MOST PART CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THIS PATTERN. BUT WILL MONITOR PATTERN FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF POPS FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TIPTON && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 142 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2005) AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... FROPA OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF TAF FCST. IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF BNDRY THIS AFTN/EVNG...WILL SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN CI FROM WEST. CU LIFTING NORTH THRU KY ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HI MAY ALSO WORK INTO SRN TAF SITES THIS AFTN. AC WILL THEN OVERSPREAD TAF SITES THIS EVNG WITH CIGS DROPPING QUICKLY AS FRONT APPCHS. FRNTL BNDRY IS A FAST MOVER...AND EXPECT A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD FOR PCPN. 12Z NAM AND CURRENT RUC BOTH INDICATE AXIS OF CAPE APPCHG 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF BNDRY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A TWO HOUR PERIOD OF TEMPO -TSRA AT ALL TAF SITES. AFTER FROPA (WHICH WILL RANGE FROM 04-06Z AT ALL TAF SITES)...-SHRA WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEFORE RAPIDLY ENDING BY 09Z. SC DECK WILL HOLD THRU DAWN AT TAF SITES...THEN EXPECT BRIEF CLEARING AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS IN. WITH STRONG CAA INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT A HEALTHY CU FIELD DVLPG BY LATE MRNG. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG THEN MAX OUT WITH FROPA AS 50 KT 850 LLJ SWEEPS ACRS AREA. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A BIT FOR REMAINDER OF FCST...BUT AM KEEPING 10-15KT NW WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF FRNTL BNDRY. RYAN && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 142 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2005 .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... FROPA OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF TAF FCST. IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF BNDRY THIS AFTN/EVNG...WILL SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN CI FROM WEST. CU LIFTING NORTH THRU KY ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HI MAY ALSO WORK INTO SRN TAF SITES THIS AFTN. AC WILL THEN OVERSPREAD TAF SITES THIS EVNG WITH CIGS DROPPING QUICKLY AS FRONT APPCHS. FRNTL BNDRY IS A FAST MOVER...AND EXPECT A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD FOR PCPN. 12Z NAM AND CURRENT RUC BOTH INDICATE AXIS OF CAPE APPCHG 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF BNDRY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A TWO HOUR PERIOD OF TEMPO -TSRA AT ALL TAF SITES. AFTER FROPA (WHICH WILL RANGE FROM 04-06Z AT ALL TAF SITES)...-SHRA WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEFORE RAPIDLY ENDING BY 09Z. SC DECK WILL HOLD THRU DAWN AT TAF SITES...THEN EXPECT BRIEF CLEARING AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS IN. WITH STRONG CAA INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT A HEALTHY CU FIELD DVLPG BY LATE MRNG. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG THEN MAX OUT WITH FROPA AS 50 KT 850 LLJ SWEEPS ACRS AREA. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A BIT FOR REMAINDER OF FCST...BUT AM KEEPING 10-15KT NW WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF FRNTL BNDRY. RYAN && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1111 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2005) SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)... CLEAR SKIES ACRS FCST AREA THIS MRNG ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HI PRES RIDGE. TEMPS HAD RECOVERED NICELY FROM COOL MINS ERLY THIS MRNG...WITH M/U60S ACRS REGION AT 15Z. MINOR TWEAKS TO FCST FOR AFTN. COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM CNTRL WISCONSIN S/W INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. FRONT WILL TREK EAST THRU AFTN HOURS AS SFC LO MOVES ALONG BNDRY AND DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INTO GRT LKS REGION THIS EVNG. HAVE BACKED OFF ON ADVANCE OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTN...WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR FCST AREA FOR MOST OF DAYLIGHT HOURS. MOISTURE RETURN OFF ATLANTIC NOTED ON BACK SIDE OF HI PRES ACRS TN VLY WITH CU/AC STREAMING INTO CNTRL KY. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS LIKELY TO WORK INTO FCST AREA FOR AFTN HOURS...BUT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE NOTED ACRS REGION WILL KEEP THEM AT A MINIMUM. SCT CI WILL ALSO WORK IN AHEAD OF BNDRY FROM WEST BY LATE AFTN...WITH THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVING IN FAR WESTERN FCST AREA AROUND SUNSET. TEMPS AND WINDS LOOKED GOOD FOR AFTN...JUST MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS. UPDATE ALREADY OUT...PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. RYAN (ISSUED 650 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2005) AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT E AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. DRY AIRMASS BUT FAVORABLE LIGHT SOUTHEAST GRADIENT HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VLIFR FOG AT KLUK. ELSEWHERE MORNING MVFR VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK. AHD OF THE NEXT DIGGING S/W TROF EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HI LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH CIGS LOWERING AS FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT. GRADIENT INCREASES AHD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SO HAVE INCREASED SWRLY WINDS TO 15 GUST TO 25KTS THIS EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF TSTMS INVOF. AFTER FROPA BROUGHT IN ABT A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU MORNING. (ISSUED 414 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EAST THURSDAY MORNING...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN THE SEASON'S FIRST REAL TASTE OF AUTUMN ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TODAY WILL START OUT CLEAR WITH CLOUDS INCREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON. FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA ABOUT 03-09Z TONIGHT...WITH MODELS REMAINING CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS INDICATED...WITH GFS QPF OVER .80"/HOUR AT CMH FROM 05-06Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE INDICATED WITH THE FRONT AS WELL. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY FROST MAY BE OBSERVED IN RURAL AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. RAISED TEMPERATURES TODAY IN WESTERN OHIO INCLUDING DAYTON. LOWERED THURSDAY 1 DEGREE BEHIND THE FRONT. REST OF TEMP FORECAST UNCHANGED. CONIGLIO (ISSUED 327 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005) LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESS ALLOWING FOR A WARM UP. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THUS HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AND LEFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 .UPDATE... COLD FRONT MAKING NICE PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING. MESONET DATA HAS INDICATED A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH DURING LAST 30 MINUTES OR SO. RUC AND ETA FORECAST 9H TO 8H WINDS IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA SO WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS OK. A LACK OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED BEHIND AND AHEAD OF FRONT SO HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO TRY AND REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. VEERED FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND VERY WARM 7H TEMPS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER STORMS IN SOUTHEAST PARTS OF FA WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL BE. RATHER IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON OUN SOUNDING THIS MORNING SO ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005) DISCUSSION... A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. SIMILARLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE... CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA... IS ADVANCING SOUTHEAST... PUSHING THE FRONT AHEAD OF IT. THE GREATEST PRESSURE RISES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE OVER THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA AREA... AND THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH THE PART OF THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE FASTEST DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING... THEN CONTINUE RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST... CLEARING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG... AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A PART OF THE FORECAST TODAY FOR ALL MANY OF OUR COUNTIES... EXCEPT THOSE IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NORMALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING... THEN LEVEL OFF FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE... THEN FALL FROM THERE. THE MOST NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE DROPS WILL BE FELT IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT CAP... THE STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY WELL FORCE PARCELS ABOVE THE CAP AND SET OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS... ASSUMING THEY FORM... WOULD BE STRONG WINDS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION FORMS. THURSDAY WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY... BETWEEN SYSTEMS... AND FRIDAY WILL RESUME RAIN CHANCES. THIS TIME... WE EXPECT ONLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOWER LAYERS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DRY. THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY... AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY... TAKING RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY LOOKS FAIRLY WARM... WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN. && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-OKZ018- OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027- OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037- OKZ038. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005- OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ014- OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ021. TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084- TXZ085. && $$ SIX ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1211 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 .UPDATE... COLD FRONT MAKING A LITTLE QUICKER PROGRESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING PRESSURE RISE CENTER OVER WESTERN KANSAS DECREASING SOME...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF MOMENTUM TO ADVANCE THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT SOME COMBINATION OF THE 12Z NAM AND 15Z RUC WILL HAVE BEST HANDLE ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION. HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER COOL AND EXPECT TEMPS TO STALL AND POSSIBLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW/NCENTRAL ZONES IF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CAN INCREASE FURTHER. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND WIND GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MID LEVEL SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO THE N/NW OF THE AREA...BUT WITH SOME THREAT OF THEIR ENCROACHMENT AND POSSIBLITY OF CONVECTION ALONG FRONT...HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07 tx