000 FGUS75 KGJT 112038 ESFGJT COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-120845- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 238 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2009 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH THE 2009 SPRING RUNOFF FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME FOR WESTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER ... TWO LOCATIONS ... THE COLORADO RIVER AT CAMEO AND THE YAMPA RIVER AT DEERLODGE PARK ... HAVE A 25% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLOOD FLOW THIS SPRING. THE WATER SUPPLY RESULTING FROM THE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT SNOWPACK AND HYDROLOGIC SOIL STATES AND THE SPRING CLIMATE OUTLOOK ... APRIL THROUGH JULY STREAMFLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE UPPER COLORADO BASIN IN WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. DESPITE THIS IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT SNOW CAN CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH WELL INTO APRIL. CHANGES IN THE FREQUENCY AND DURATION OF STORMS CAN HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOWPACK AND THE RESULTING SNOWMELT RUNOFF. ALSO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MELT PERIOD CAN CAUSE OR EXACERBATE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN ANY YEAR. NOTE THAT SPECIFIC FORECAST PROCEDURES AND FLOOD FLOW LEVELS DO NOT EXIST FOR ALL STREAMS IN WESTERN COLORADO. OBSERVED PRECIPITATION ------------------------- DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA IN FEBRUARY AND EARLY MARCH. AS A RESULT ... OBSERVED PRECIPITATION FOR THE 2009 WATER YEAR STARTING OCTOBER 1 2008 OVER THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN WESTERN COLORADO IS NOW BETWEEN 100 TO 105% ABOVE NORMAL AND OVER EASTERN UTAH BETWEEN 80% TO 87% OF NORMAL. EVEN THOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN IMPACTED BY THE RECENT DRIER WEATHER MOUNTAIN SNOWPACKS REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THE LARGEST SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT DEPARTURES ARE 115% TO 120% OF NORMAL IN THE ELKHEAD MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN ROUTT COUNTY ... 120% TO 125% OF NORMAL IN PORTIONS OF THE ELKS AND WEST ELK MOUNTAINS OF WEST CENTRAL COLORADO ... AND 115% TO 120% OF NORMAL IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AROUND LIZARD HEAD PASS AND RED MOUNTAIN PASS. SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IN MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION IS 103 TO 112% OF NORMAL WITH THE EASTERN UINTAH MOUNTAINS SEEING A SNOW WATER DEFICIT OF 65% OF NORMAL. PRECIPITATION PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE 2009 WATER YEAR AS OF MARCH 11 2009 ------------------------------------------------------------- IN WESTERN COLORADO... BASIN PRECIPITATION PERCENT OF NORMAL ----- ------------------------------- YAMPA/WHITE 104% UPPER COLORADO 104% GUNNISON 100% SAN MIGUEL/DOLORES/ANIMAS/ SAN JUAN 102% IN EASTERN UTAH... BASIN PRECIPITATION PERCENT OF NORMAL ----- ------------------------------- DUCHESNE 87% GREEN RIVER 84% SOUTHEASTERN UTAH 81% SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT FOR MAJOR BASINS AS OF MARCH 11 2009 ------------------------------------------------------------ IN WESTERN COLORADO... BASIN SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT PERCENT OF NORMAL ----- --------------------------------------- YAMPA/WHITE 108% UPPER COLORADO 112% GUNNISON 102% SAN MIGUEL/DOLORES/ANIMAS/ SAN JUAN 100% IN EASTERN UTAH... BASIN SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT PERCENT OF NORMAL ----- --------------------------------------- DUCHESNE 85% GREEN RIVER 63% SOUTHEASTERN UTAH 93% RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF MARCH 11 2009 -------------------------------------------- RESERVOIR USABLE EOM USABLE % OF CAPACITY CONTENTS CAPACITY (KAF) (KAF) % ---------------------------------------------------------- COLORADO - LAKE GRANB| 490.3| 258.2| 53| WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK| 9.1| 8.1| 89| WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI| 96.9| 78.2| 81| WOLFORD MOUNTAIN RESE| 66.0| 51.3| 78| BLUE - DILLON RES | 254.0| 224.9| 89| BLUE - GREEN MTN RES | 146.9| 62.0| 42| HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST| 43.0| 42.0| 98| FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE| 102.0| 70.9| 69| PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES| 32.9| 14.6| 44| TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK | 106.2| 71.4| 67| GUNNISON - BLUE MESA | 829.5| 552.1| 67| GUNNISON - MORROW POI| 117.0| 106.0| 91| GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE| 17.5| 16.7| 95| MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES| 18.5| 2.1| 11| UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY| 83.2| 68.5| 82| DOLORES - MCPHEE RES | 381.1| 276.3| 72| LOS PINOS - VALLECITO| 125.4| 76.7| 61| SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES| 1701.3| 1259.4| 74| FLORIDA - LEMON RES/ | 39.8| 18.6| 47| COLORADO - LAKE POWEL| 24322.0| 12937.8| 53| CLIMATE OUTLOOK ------------------------- CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS FOR MARCH 2009 INDICATE THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR MARCH ... APRIL ... AND MAY 2009 INDICATES BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANGES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. CBRFC 2009 SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR THE PERIOD APRIL 2009 TO JULY 2009 AS OF MARCH 1 2009 ----------------------------------------------- YAMPA/WHITE BASINS MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG ---- --- ---- ---- --- YAMPA RIVER STAGECOACH RSVR/ ABV 31 107 48 18.7 29 STEAMBOAT SPRINGS 290 104 375 215 280 ELK RIVER MILNER/ NR 360 111 455 275 325 ELKHEAD CK ELKHEAD/ NR 43 110 61 28 39 MAYNARD GULCH/ BLO 65 110 91 43 59 FORTIFICATION CK FORTIFICATION/ NR 8.0 107 13.0 4.5 7.5 YAMPA RIVER MAYBELL/ NR 1070 108 1430 765 990 LITTLE SNAKE RIVER SLATER/ NR 180 113 235 132 159 DIXON/ NR 390 118 545 260 330 LILY/ NR 430 118 610 280 365 WHITE RIVER MEEKER/ NR 290 100 385 210 290 WATSON/ NR 305 100 440 171 305 UPPER COLORADO ... ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG ---- --- ---- ---- --- COLORADO RIVER LAKE GRANBY/ GRANBY/ NR 235 104 295 182 225 WILLOW CK WILLOW CK RES/ GRANBY/ NR 55 108 73 40 51 FRASER RIVER WINTER PARK 22 110 27 16.6 20 WILLIAMS FORK RIVER WILLIAMS FORK RES/ PARSHALL/ N 105 111 131 82 95 BLUE RIVER DILLON RES 180 108 225 141 167 GREEN MTN RES 310 111 395 240 280 MUDDY CK WOLFORD MTN RES/ BLO 62 103 83 45 60 COLORADO RIVER KREMMLING/ NR 940 108 1220 660 870 EAGLE RIVER GYPSUM/ BLO 360 107 475 265 335 COLORADO RIVER DOTSERO/ NR 1570 109 1990 1200 1440 FRYING PAN RIVER RUEDI RES/ BASALT/ NR 155 110 205 115 141 ROARING FORK RIVER GLENWOOD SPRINGS 810 114 1030 620 710 COLORADO RIVER GLENWOOD SPRINGS/ BLO 2400 111 3000 1800 2160 CAMEO/ NR 2700 112 3430 1970 2420 PLATEAU CK CAMEO/ NR 115 100 170 65 115 GUNNISON BASIN MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG ---- --- ---- ---- --- TAYLOR RIVER TAYLOR PARK RES 105 102 136 78 103 ALMONT 168 102 215 123 165 EAST RIVER ALMONT 205 107 260 157 192 GUNNISON RIVER GUNNISON/ NR 415 106 540 305 390 TOMICHI CK GUNNISON 75 93 130 38 81 LAKE FORK RIVER GATEVIEW 120 95 157 88 126 GUNNISON RIVER BLUE MESA RES 730 101 990 520 720 MORROW POINT RES 800 102 1040 555 785 CRYSTAL RES 900 98 1210 585 915 MUDDY CK PAONIA RES/ BARDINE/ NR 110 110 166 68 100 PAONIA RES/ BARDINE/ NR 112 110 174 67 102 NF GUNNISON RIVER SOMERSET/ NR 340 111 460 245 305 SURFACE CK CEDAREDGE 17.0 99 24 11.6 17.1 UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER RIDGWAY RES 110 108 151 77 102 COLONA 145 104 215 92 139 DELTA 130 111 210 51 117 GUNNISON RIVER GRAND JUNCTION/ NR 1630 104 2170 1090 1560 DOLORES BASIN MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG ---- --- ---- ---- --- DOLORES RIVER DOLORES 270 102 380 182 265 MCPHEE RES 330 103 480 215 320 SAN MIGUEL RIVER PLACERVILLE/ NR 140 106 193 97 132 DOLORES RIVER CISCO/ NR 620 101 910 330 615 UPPER COLORADO/ CONFLUENCE MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG ---- --- ---- ---- --- COLORADO RIVER CISCO/ NR 5100 110 6880 3320 4650 MILL CK MOAB/ NR/ SHELEY TUN/ AT 4.8 96 7.3 3.0 5.0 SAN JUAN BASIN MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG ---- --- ---- ---- --- SAN JUAN RIVER PAGOSA SPRINGS 230 102 325 137 225 CARRACAS/ NR 415 102 605 270 405 RIO BLANCO RIVER PAGOSA SPRINGS/ NR/ BLANCO DAM 55 104 76 38 53 NAVAJO RIVER CHROMO/ NR/ OSO DIV DAM/ BLO 72 104 101 49 69 PIEDRA RIVER ARBOLES/ NR 230 100 345 144 230 LOS PINOS RIVER VALLECITO RES/ BAYFIELD/ NR 210 102 280 154 205 SAN JUAN RIVER NAVAJO RES/ ARCHULETA/ NR 815 104 1180 530 785 FLORIDA RIVER LEMON RES/ DURANGO/ NR 60 103 78 45 58 ANIMAS RIVER DURANGO 450 102 625 310 440 SAN JUAN RIVER FARMINGTON 1250 103 1730 765 1210 LA PLATA RIVER HESPERUS 25 100 36 16.4 25 SAN JUAN RIVER BLUFF/ NR 1250 102 1810 695 1230 MANCOS RIVER MANCOS/ NR 33 100 56 10.0 33 SOUTH CK LLOYD'S RSVR NR MONTICELLO/ AB 1.30 99 2.5 0.57 1.31 IN EASTERN UTAH... LAKE POWELL MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG ---- --- ---- ---- --- COLORADO RIVER LAKE POWELL/ GLEN CYN DAM/ AT 7800 98 11000 4630 7930 EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG ---- --- ---- ---- --- BIG BRUSH CK VERNAL/ NR/ RED FLEET RES/ ABV 14.0 67 21 8.2 21 ASHLEY CK VERNAL/ NR 36 69 56 21 52 WF DUCHESNE RIVER HANNA/ NR 20 83 30 11.9 24 DUCHESNE RIVER TABIONA/ NR 80 76 116 50 105 WHITEROCKS RIVER WHITEROCKS/ NR 45 80 68 27 56 DUCHESNE RIVER RANDLETT/ NR 185 57 360 68 325 GREEN RIVER GREEN RIVER/ UT 2750 87 3990 1510 3170 MP MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET. MP% MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 71-00 AVERAGE. RMAX VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED. RMIN VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED. AVG AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 71-00 PERIOD. ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT. FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ----------------------- IN WESTERN COLORADO ... BASIN LOCATION CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLOOD FLOW -------------- ------------------------------ YAMPA/WHITE AT DEERLODGE PARK 25% UPPER COLORADO AT CAMEO 25% IN EASTERN UTAH... FLOODING DUE SOLELY TO SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ BAL WFO GJT/NRCS/CBRFC