Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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000 FXUS64 KMRX 131345 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 944 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009 .DISCUSSION...13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM SW NC TO NE TN/SW VA. LOOKING OVER SURFACE (SFC) TEMPS... UPPER AIR PLOTS AND SCHOOL NET OBSERVATIONS...SHOWS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS POINT ON SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. 850 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM HAS LIFTED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND THE ONLY SUB 32 DEGREE SFC TEMP NOTED WAS LNP (LONESOME PINE AIRPORT) IN WISE COUNTY VA. HOWEVER...THIS 28 DEGREES IS AN OUTLIER GIVEN WARMER NEARBY SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. SOME LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO HAVE FALLEN IN WISE COUNTY OVERNIGHT... BUT NO SNOW AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE ELSE OVER OUR COUNTIES OF SWRN VA. RADAR AND SATELLITE PICS SHOW LIGHT RAIN SPREADING NE FROM NRN HALF OF AL AND NW GA. LATEST RUC AND NAM-WRF MODELS SPREAD THIS RAIN INTO AT LEAST SE TN AND SW NC TODAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LINGERS ACROSS NE TN AND SW VA...SO DOUBT IF I WILL ADJUST POP FORECAST ANY FOR TODAY. WILL LOOK OVER HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS...TO SEE IF GRIDS NEED SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS. OTHERWISE...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING WILL SPREAD A MORE STEADY RAIN OUR WAY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 48 44 52 47 65 / 80 100 100 70 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 48 43 50 43 62 / 80 100 100 70 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 48 43 51 43 61 / 80 100 100 70 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 46 40 47 39 57 / 80 100 100 60 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG
