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ACUS01 KWNS 151625

SWODY1

SPC AC 151622



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1022 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2009



VALID 151630Z - 161200Z



...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...



COLD SFC/UPPER LOW OFF NRN CA COAST EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THRU THE

FORECAST PERIOD WITH SLOW FILLING.  DOWNSTREAM MORE PROGRESSIVE

PATTERN AS RIDGING SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS AND STRONG WIND MAX/TROUGH

MOVES ACROSS TN VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES.



AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL U.S. HAS PUSHED ANY THREAT OF

MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SWD INTO NRN GULF OF MEXICO.

WEAK FRONTAL BAND STRETCHES E/W ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA WILL SHIFT

SLOWLY SWD...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAK LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BOTH SIDES OF FRONT...PRECLUDES SUFFICIENTLY

DEEP UPDRAFTS FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER LAND.

 BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFF SHORE IN AREA OF

GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GULF STREAM

TONIGHT OFF E COAST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS.



ALONG THE CA COAST WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW OFFSHORE MAKING LITTLE

PROGRESS CONDITIONS FOR SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CONVECTION TO PRODUCE A

LIGHTNING THREAT OVER LAND NOT EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  WITH

LIMITED ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPER LAPSE

RATES OFFSHORE...ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL

AFTER 12Z MON WHEN UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES INLAND.



..HALES.. 02/15/2009