SPC MCD 101258
TXZ000-101430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 101258Z - 101430Z
TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN TX THIS MORNING MAY POSE A LARGE HAIL
THREAT.
TSTM INITIATION HAS OCCURRED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED THIS
MORNING ACROSS SWRN TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE LEAD
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTING EWD ACROSS SWRN TX AND MAY BE MODULATING
THE VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS. 12Z MAF SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THE
PARCELS ARE ELEVATED WITH BASES IN THE 800-650 MB LAYER. MAGNITUDE
OF H7-H5 LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL.
THE MAIN BELT OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AZ/NM UPPER LOW HAS YET
TO SPREAD EWD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY
LATER IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY FARTHER N.
..RACY.. 06/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
30160230 31110279 31640293 32410247 32680159 32830072
32470025 31300027 30280101 29830166
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101548
SPC MCD 101548
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-101745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W TX AND THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES...WRN OK AND SW KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 101548Z - 101745Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE INITIAL THREAT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BECOME POSSIBLE AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE
BASED. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
THIS MORNING A COLD STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SWWD THROUGH THE NW TX
PANHANDLE INTO E CNTRL NM FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE OK PANHANDLE.
DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM SWRN TX NWD INTO E CNTRL NM WHERE IT INTERSECTS
THE DRYLINE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN OK NWWD INTO THE
CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR
S OF THESE BOUNDARIES AND THIS WILL TEND TO DELAY DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...STRONG MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG EXISTS IN THIS
REGION ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NW TX AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE DOWNSTREAM FROM
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITHIN THE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AS DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE NM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADS EWD. THE SURFACE
FRONT MAY ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION AS THE CAP WEAKENS
THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL THE INITIAL PRIMARY
THREAT. STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE ELEVATED ABOVE THE CLOUDY...STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE
STORMS BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WHERE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO INTERACT WITH PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.
..DIAL.. 06/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
33460272 34910292 37240025 36689910 33450100
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101721
SPC MCD 101721
WIZ000-101915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1277
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 101721Z - 101915Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL
THROUGH ERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN
THROUGH SWRN WI WITH A COLD FRONT W OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN WI.
STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING
ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV MOVING NEWD
OUT OF IA INTO SERN MN MAY ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE 0
TO 6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KT IS GENERALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS...BUT WITH SOME MID LEVEL
UPDRAFT ROTATION POSSIBLE.
..DIAL.. 06/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...
43389053 44679050 45649059 45979018 45338886 44148816
43008951
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101723
SPC MCD 101723
ILZ000-MOZ000-101930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 101723Z - 101930Z
...POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL MO INVOF OF
APPROACHING MCV IN ERN KS...
REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX /MCV/ APPARENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOW LOCATED OVER ERN KS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
TOPEKA TOWARD CHANUTE. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER ALLEN AND BOURBON
COUNTIES IN ECNTRL KS AND HENRY COUNTY IN WRN MO. MORE STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL MO...AS THE INCREASED FORCING SPREADS EWD.
AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH OBSERVED MLCAPE VALUES
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS STRONGER FARTHER NORTH PER
LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LATHROP PROFILER...SUGGESTING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT. HOWEVER THE SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT IN
THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
..TAYLOR.. 06/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
37119239 37219457 39139444 39629298 39569109 39009024
38259000 37509046 37219102
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101754
SPC MCD 101754
NMZ000-COZ000-102000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM THROUGH SERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 101754Z - 102000Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH NERN NM AND SERN CO. ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
WW.
THIS AFTERNOON ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD
THROUGH NM IS SPREADING EWD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND SERN
CO. THIS IN ADDITION TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NERN NM INTO SERN
CO. E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...STRONG SURFACE HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS OCCURRING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER E
CNTRL NM WITH ELY UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINED N OF THIS FEATURE. THIS
WILL HELP MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF HIGHER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INTO NERN NM. A BAND OF SWLY 40 TO 50 KT
MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOVE
THE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
..DIAL.. 06/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
34800601 36490492 37660417 37120328 35620333 34470441
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101831
SPC MCD 101831
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-102030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1280
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...NW ME/NRN NY/VT/NH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 101831Z - 102030Z
...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN...
STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITHIN WELL DEFINED WARM
SECTOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT LIES WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST ACROSS ERN QUEBEC. MAIN BAND OF STRONG 50-60 KT
WESTERLIES IS ALSO ACROSS QUEBEC EXTENDING FROM SRN HUDSON BAY EWD.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CNTRL QUEBEC AND MUCH OF THE STRONGER
FORCING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN A FEW HOURS.
AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF VT AND NH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS ME/VT/NH GIVEN OBSERVATIONS
OF 25-30 KT PER THE GRAY MAINE AND BURLINGTON VT VAD WIND DATA.
FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE MORE
DISORGANIZED...AND EXCEPT FOR AN OCCASIONAL MERGER...SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
..TAYLOR.. 06/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
46236933 44926958 43747144 42907518 43187600 43947601
44537569 44997416 45057183 46297000
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101925
SPC MCD 101925
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-102130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS THROUGH WRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449...
VALID 101925Z - 102130Z
THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO WRN OK
AND SWRN KS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE.
A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS SWWD THROUGH THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE INTO NERN
NM FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SWRN KS. A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDS ACROSS NRN OK WWD INTO SWRN KS. CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES
FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD TO THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IN NWRN OK. THIS CLUSTER HAS ESTABLISHED A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL
OVER THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. SOME HP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE
TO BE OBSERVED AT TIMES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLD POOL. THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR SO FAR FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT HAS BEEN THE EARLY START TO THE CONVECTION WHICH HAS LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT FURTHER
HEATING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THEY INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE
BECOMING ELEVATED ON THE COOL SIDE.
..DIAL.. 06/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
34430009 34540244 36160230 37380054 37279898 35779923
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101926
SPC MCD 101926
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-102130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS THROUGH WRN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 449...
VALID 101926Z - 102130Z
THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO WRN OK
AND SWRN KS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE.
A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS SWWD THROUGH THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE INTO NERN
NM FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SWRN KS. A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDS ACROSS NRN OK WWD INTO SWRN KS. CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES
FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD TO THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IN NWRN OK. THIS CLUSTER HAS ESTABLISHED A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL
OVER THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. SOME HP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE
TO BE OBSERVED AT TIMES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLD POOL. THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR SO FAR FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT HAS BEEN THE EARLY START TO THE CONVECTION WHICH HAS LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT FURTHER
HEATING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THEY INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE
BECOMING ELEVATED ON THE COOL SIDE.
..DIAL.. 06/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
34430009 34540244 36160230 37380054 37279898 35779923
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102046
SPC MCD 102046
FLZ000-102245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1283
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH S CNTRL FL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 450...
VALID 102046Z - 102245Z
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO
THE MID EVENING OVER SRN THROUGH S CNTRL FL.
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE NOW OVER THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NWD INTO SRN AND CNTRL FL
THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST VWP DATA FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI SHOW
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. PARTIAL CLOUD BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS AND
BETWEEN RAINBANDS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY INTO
THE EVENING WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY LANDFALLING
MINI SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS.
..DIAL.. 06/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...
25167971 24718146 25678178 26728185 27138060
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102105
SPC MCD 102105
TXZ000-NMZ000-102230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0405 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM THROUGH SWRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 102105Z - 102230Z
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER SERN NM THROUGH SWRN
TX. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. A WW
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON.
THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD THROUGH ERN NM INTO SW TX JUST
W OF WINK AND FORT STOCKTON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM S
CNTRL TX NEAR SAN ANGELO NWWD TO JUST WEST OF MIDLAND THEN NWD TO E
OF HOBBS. THE ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. CUMULUS HAS BEEN
INCREASING IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE WITHIN THE ZONE OF MIXING...
AND CONVERGENCE MAY INCREASE TOWARD EVENING AS FLOW IN THE 2-3 KM
VEERS WHILE NM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW VEERING TO WLY 35-40 KT AT 6 KM WILL SUPPORT 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
40-45 KT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STORM MAY ALSO HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TOO INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT CURVES NWWD
THROUGH WRN TX.
..DIAL.. 06/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
30840348 33080317 33400260 32050223 31070135 30080185
29910317
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102202
SPC MCD 102202
MIZ000-WIZ000-102330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1285
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI/UPPER PENINSULA OF MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 102202Z - 102330Z
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AS LINE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS INTERACTS WITH LAKE BREEZE. LINE
OF STORMS WITH NOW EXTENDS FROM IRON CO WI TO WAUPACA CO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20-25 MPH. BOWING SEGMENTS HAVE BEEN PERIODICALLY
OBSERVED WITH THE LINE. VAD WIND DATA FROM GREEN BAY SUGGESTS
MODESTLY STRONG SHEAR...WITH GOOD DIRECTIONAL TURNING WITH HEIGHT.
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH GREEN BAY AND
LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S.
HOWEVER...GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
LINE...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY WIND DAMAGE...OR LARGE
HAIL FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
..TAYLOR.. 06/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...
46438830 46488766 46418692 44938711 43838766 43848845
44268860 44768866
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102307
SPC MCD 102307
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-110100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS/NE OK/SW MO/NW AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 102307Z - 110100Z
...NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF KANSAS MCS...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC
OBSERVATIONS HAS BEEN MONITORED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND WILL
LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH RECENTLY AT PNC AND BVO...SUGGESTING
BOUNDARY HAS MIXED A BIT NORTH. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING FROM NEW MEXICO IS APPROACHING WRN TIP OF OK
PANHANDLE...WITH RESPONDING MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 40-50 KT
PER AREA PROFILER DATA.
LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...PROVIDING
FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT. MCS NOW IN SCNTRL KS
WILL LIKELY BECOME A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS
ACROSS SE KS AND NE OK HAS HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S WITH EXCELLENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. SEVERE
THREATS WITH SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POSSIBLE.
..TAYLOR.. 06/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
37029730 37889635 37759457 37309347 36419340 35719412
35439554 35559697 35829756 36399754
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102334
SPC MCD 102334
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-110030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM / SRN CO / WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451...
VALID 102334Z - 110030Z
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW.
WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 11/02Z EXPIRATION.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES SURGING EWD ACROSS NERN NM / WRN PORTIONS
OF THE TX PANHANDLE ATTM...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED LINE OF CONVECTION.
THIS BOUNDARY / CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD VACATE WW 451 WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH LITTLE INDICATION THAT NEW CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP FURTHER W WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED. ASSUMING PRESENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS AS SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES SHIFTING EWD.
..GOSS.. 06/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
37410249 37390209 34150301 34160423 36740271
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110017
SPC MCD 110017
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-110145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1288
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0717 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL KS / PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK / WRN
N TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452...
VALID 110017Z - 110145Z
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW.
STRONGEST STORMS REMAIN OVER S CENTRAL KS WHERE BOW ECHO APPEARS TO
BE EVOLVING. THESE STORMS ARE NOW VACATING THE NERN-MOST COUNTIES
OF WW -- SUMNER AND SEDGWICK CO KS...AND ARE MOVING INTO
NEWLY-ISSUED WW 455.
MEANWHILE...CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF
NWRN / N CENTRAL OK...BUT STORM INTENSITY REMAINS LIMITED ATTM.
DESPITE THIS...LATEST PRC /PURCELL OK/ AND LMN /LAMONT OK/ PROFILERS
SHOW MODERATE / VEERING DEEP-LAYER FLOW...WHICH COMBINED WITH AROUND
2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE SUGGESTS THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS
ACROSS OK PORTION OF WW.
FURTHER S INTO TX...THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
SIMILARLY SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SEVERE THREAT...BUT STORMS HAVE
LIKEWISE REMAINED WEAK THUS FAR -- POSSIBLY DUE TO SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING EVIDENT ACROSS THIS AREA. NONETHELESS...WITH LOW-END SEVERE
THREAT PERSISTING ACROSS WW...WILL CONTINUE WW FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
HOUR.
..GOSS.. 06/11/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...
37069915 37059735 32009880 31980043 33149943 35639902
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110150
SPC MCD 110150
FLZ000-110245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0850 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...S FL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 450...
VALID 110150Z - 110245Z
TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW...AND APPEARS TO
BE EXPANDING NWD TOWARD TPA.
RADAR VELOCITY DATA SHOWS CONTINUED ROTATION WITH STORMS WITHIN
FEEDER BAND EXTENDING FROM NEAR EYW NNWWD TO OFFSHORE OF SRQ.
EVENING TBW RAOB AND AREA VWPS CONTINUE TO SHOW VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND VERY STRONG /30-PLUS KT/ 0-1 KM SHEAR. THEREFORE...EXPECT
THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES TO CONTINUE
OVER THE KEYS AND INVOF THE SRN FL GULF COAST. NEW TORNADO WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY REPLACING WW 450.
..GOSS.. 06/11/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW...
27898253 26058118 24978051 24518169 27758296
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110348
SPC MCD 110348
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-110515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK / S CENTRAL AND SERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 455...
VALID 110348Z - 110515Z
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW...AND MAY BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN OK INTO S CENTRAL AND SERN KS AS WW 455 IS
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 11/05Z.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS INCREASING ATTM ACROSS N CENTRAL
OK / S CENTRAL KS...ALONG EWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
ORIGINATED SEVERAL HOURS AGO IN NERN NM. AIRMASS ACROSS THE OK / KS
BORDER AREA REMAINS MOIST / UNSTABLE...WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS SERN KS / NERN OK.
WITH UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING ACROSS OK ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS
MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE / POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL BEYOND THE SCHEDULED 11/05Z EXPIRATION OF WW 455.
THEREFORE...NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AREAS WITHIN AND W OF WW 455.
..GOSS.. 06/11/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
37379865 37659726 38659584 38689475 37059459 35909725
35509812 35739924
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110620
SPC MCD 110620
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-110645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS AND WCNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 110620Z - 110645Z
WW COULD BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
LINEAR MCS HAS SHOWN TENDENCIES TO BOW WITH THE APEX MOVING AOA 40
KTS ACROSS SERN KS. ICT VWP SHOWS 50 KT REAR INFLOW JET AND RADAR
REFLECTIVITY HAS INDICATED WEAK ECHO CHANNELS BEGINNING TO FORM ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE BOW. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT TSTMS AND THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY BECOME HIGHER
DOWNSTREAM. AS A RESULT...A WW COULD BE NEEDED.
..RACY.. 06/11/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
37759729 39209481 39289303 37489290 36989454 37039715
NNNN